Educational systems are complex adaptive systems (CAS). The macroeffects of an educational policy emerge from and depend on individual students' reactions to the policy. However, educational policymakers traditionally rely on equation-based models, which are deficient in reflecting the work of microbehaviors. Using inappropriate tools to make policies may be a reason why there were many unintended educational consequences in history. A proper methodology to design and analyze policies for complex educational systems is agent-based modeling (ABM). Grounded in the theories of CAS and computational irreducibility, ABM is capable of connecting microbehaviors with macropatterns. The purpose of this study was to contribute to the application of ABM in educational policy analysis by constructing an agent-based overlapping generations model with hypothesized inputs to qualitatively represent the environment of the Taipei School District. Four research questions explored the effects of Taipei's 2016 student-assignment mechanism and its free tuition policy on educational opportunity and school quality under different assumptions of students' school-choice strategies. The simulated outputs were analyzed using descriptive statistics and paired samples t tests. The findings, which could hardly be revealed by traditional models, showed that the effects were complex and depended on students' strategies along with the number of choices students were allowed to make; the assignment outcomes for elite students were robust to the mechanism, and the free tuition policy worsened school quality. Although exploratory, these findings can serve as hypotheses and a guide for Taipei's policymakers to collect empirical data in evaluating their 2016 mechanism and tuition policy.

本研究旨在建構國民中學適性輔導評估指標，當前在十二年國民基本教育的推動之中，落實學校的適性輔導工作是重點任務。首先藉由文獻探討適性輔導相關論述為基礎，初擬指標架構，運用專家問卷以及模糊德菲術（fuzzy Delphi method），並以桃園縣政府教育局行政人員、桃園縣國民中學校長、教務主任、輔導主任、輔導與諮商中心專業人員及教師為研究對象，透過問卷蒐集政策利害關係人之意見，共發出10 份專家問卷及16 份正式問卷。根據正式問卷填答結果，計算各層面、項目及指標之三角模糊數（triangular fuzzy number），再將其反模糊化（defuzzification），求得各層面、項目及指標之效用總值，自訂門檻值為0.6，篩選出3層面、17項目及37個指標，並以歸一化之方式確立各層面、項目及指標權重。各層面之權重由高至低依序為課程規劃與教學活動（33.9%）、組織與行政運作（33.6%）以及生涯檔案建置與應用（32.5%）。最後根據此指標架構對教育行政機關、學校及未來研究提出建議。 / The study aims to construct a junior high school adaptive counseling evaluation indicators. The implementation of adaptive counseling in the school becomes the foremost important task when promoted by the current 12-Year Basic Education. The study first applies a literature review to discuss the adaptive counseling related discourses as the foundation, drafting the indicator framework, and using expert questionnaire and fuzzy Delphi method to conduct the questionnaire survey on the administrative personnel of Department of Education, Taoyuan County, junior high school principles, directors of teaching affairs, counseling directors, counseling and experts at the consultation center, thereby to collect the opinions of policy stakeholders through questionnaires. A total of 10 expert questionnaires and 16 official questionnaires were issued. The results of official questionnaire then underwent calculation of triangular fuzzy numbers for the different levels, items and indicators, followed by defuzzification to yield the total valid values of the different levels, items and indicators. The self-developed threshold value is 0.6 with 3 levels, 17 items and 37 indicators selected, which is applied with normalization to validate the different levels, items and indicator weights. The weights of different levels are sorted in descending order, namely course plan and teaching activity (33.9%), organization and administrative operation (33.6%) and the career file establishment and application (32.5%). Finally, the study proposes suggestions for educational administrative agencies, schools and future researchers based on this indicator framework.

自2011年「十二年國民基本教育實施計畫」核定之後，課綱的修訂也隨之而來，在這次修訂的十二年國教社會領綱草案中，不但包含總綱所強調的以學習者為主體、素養導向的精神；也有其領域特色，例如將原本的單元式內容編排改為主題式、強調探究與實作的活動設計、以及跨科目的橫向連結等等。對於教科書的編寫與審定而言，教科書的編纂需以課綱之規範為憑依，而課綱亦為教科書實質審查的主要依據，當課綱有所改變時，教科書的編、審不可避免地受其影響。 　　本研究旨在了解普通型高中教科書審定制度實務運作的現況、困境，並以十二年國教新課綱為焦點，分析其對教科書編寫與審定運作的影響，進一步了解既有問題是否因課綱的轉變及相關的配套措施而獲得改善？抑或者是產生新的問題需要處理？而本研究參考Winter, S（1990）政策執行整合模式的變項，轉化為探究十二年國教新課綱對教科書編寫與審定之影響的基本架構，並透過文獻分析、深度訪談來進行資料蒐集。 　　藉由上述方式，本研究發現，過去高中教科書在審查運作上有溝通沒有效率、審查缺乏一致性、以審代編等困境；而新課綱亦對教科書的編審帶來如何正確理解新課綱、如何將課綱精準轉化為教科書、教科書審查的範圍與方式等挑戰。對此，政府在教科書編寫進行前，有舉辦出版社工作坊、發展教材與教學模組等協助措施；在三方座談前，有提高課綱研修委員在審查委員中的比例、建立共同審查基準、舉辦審查委員說明會等規劃；在審定開始前則有三方座談的安排，此外也對高中的教科用書審定辦法進行調整與修訂。而在新課綱的推動下，教科書審定政策中有三項兩難：課綱是教科書編寫的「天花板」還是「門檻」、素養導向在編審中落實的「教育理想」與「現實考量」、教科書審定制度在「鬆綁」與「緊縮」間的拉扯。然而在領綱還沒正式定案、教科書還沒開始進行編、審時，各項配套措施與準備工作都還在研議或進行中，最後會呈現什麼態樣還待後續的觀察。