Submitted by Oswaldo Godoy Neto (godoyon@gmail.com) on 2012-06-21T22:24:06Z No. of bitstreams: 1 OGN_Pesquisa Orientada a Resultado.pdf: 2716138 bytes, checksum: f337c60cf400c790eb16af14317e34eb (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Gisele Isaura Hannickel (gisele.hannickel@fgv.br) on 2012-06-22T12:03:42Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 OGN_Pesquisa Orientada a Resultado.pdf: 2716138 bytes, checksum: f337c60cf400c790eb16af14317e34eb (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2012-06-22T13:03:03Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 OGN_Pesquisa Orientada a Resultado.pdf: 2716138 bytes, checksum: f337c60cf400c790eb16af14317e34eb (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-06-12 / Esta dissertação de mestrado teve como objetivo principal propor um método estruturado suportado for ferramentas gerenciais que permitisse orientar e sistematizar o desenvolvimento de um projeto de pesquisa na disponibilização de uma nova tecnologia para o mercado. O 'Projeto Etanol de 2ª Geração', etanol produzido a partir de biomassas lignocelulósicas, aqui selecionado para estudo de caso, foi extraído da carteira de projetos do Centro de Tecnologia Canavieira (CTC). O método estruturado sugerido é constituído, fundamentalmente, por oito requisitos arranjados de forma cronológica ao longo do desenvolvimento do projeto, que visam auxiliar na prospecção, entendimento, avaliação, valoração, priorização, planejamento e implantação de, por exemplo, uma tecnologia inovadora, otimizando tempo, capital e recursos humanos aplicados. Um dos principais pontos do método proposto refere-se à escolha adequada das ferramentas gerenciais a serem utilizadas em cada requisito (brainstorm, análise de patentes, painel de especialistas, análise SWOT, dentre outras). O êxito na aplicação do método requer o entendimento de todos os (potenciais) efeitos, inclusive os colaterais, no processo como um todo. Ou seja, uma vez que toda ferramenta gerencial apresenta pontos fortes e fracos, o importante é adaptá-las ao sistema de negócio e não vice-versa. A partir do gerenciamento do projeto por um gestor com domínio das ferramentas gerenciais, a escolha destas ocorre de forma dinâmica, onde a cada passo de avaliação novas ferramentas (simples e/ou complexas) podem ser incluídas ou excluídas da matriz do método. Neste trabalho ficou demonstrada a importância de se trabalhar com métodos estruturados e flexíveis, que permitem retroalimentação de informações geradas internamente durante o desenvolvimento da pesquisa ou advindas de fontes externas. O projeto Etanol de 2ª Geração do CTC vem aplicando o método proposto em seu desenvolvimento e obtendo grande êxito em seus resultados, uma vez que a equipe envolvida permanece focada no objetivo principal, obedecendo prazos e recursos inicialmente definidos, com constância do propósito do projeto, sem retrocesso ou recomeço. / The objective of this work was to propose a method, structured and supported by management tools, to guide and systematize the development of a project of research focusing to deploy a new technology in the market. The '2nd Generation Ethanol Project', ethanol produced from lignocellulosic biomass, was selected as case study from the portfolio of projects of the Sugarcane Technology Center. Fundamentally, the suggested structured method consists of eight requirements arranged in a chronological order throughout the project development cycle, aiming at assisting the exploration, understanding, evaluation, assessment, prioritization, planning and deployment of, for example, an innovative technology, optimizing the applied time and capital and human resources. One of the main points of the proposed method refers to the adequate choice of the management tools to be used in each requirement (brainstorm, patent analysis, expert panel, SWOT analysis, among others). The successful application of the method requires the understanding of all (potential) effects, including the side effects, in the whole process. Since all management tools have strong and weak points, the most important thing is to adapt them to the business system and not vice versa. Considering that the project should be conducted by a person with some knowledge and skilled on this area, the choice of the tools happens in a very dynamic way, where after each assessment, new tools (simple and/or complex) may be included or excluded from the method matrix. In this work it was demonstrated the importance of working with structured and flexible methods which accept retrofitting of information generated along the research development or that comes from external sources. The 2nd Generation Ethanol Project has internally used the proposed method and obtained good results, since with this approach it was possible to keep the team focused on the same main goal, obeying the planned schedule with the resources initially defined, with no rewind or restart.

This paper discusses the potential of gasoline, ethanol and methanol ternary blend as an alternative passenger car fuel in Sweden. Sweden has set various targets aimed to reduce its GHG emissions and to increase the share of renewables in the transportation sector. Nevertheless, the majority of the energy consumed in the road transportation sector still comes from fossil fuels. In order to replace the energy supply of fossil fuels by more renewable fuels, the potential of alternative renewable fuels needs to be explored. Therefore, the potential of a domestically produced ternary blend of Gasoline‐Ethanol‐ Methanol (GEM) fuel blend is analysed in this report. In order to test whether it has the potential to become a successful alternative fuel, an analysis is performed on the: methanol and ethanol production potential from domestic second‐generation feedstocks, the selection of the most suitable production pathways of the biofuels, the potential for a Swedish GEM fuel distribution infrastructure, the economic competitiveness of GEM fuel, and lastly on the environmental impact of the shift from cars running on neat gasoline to GEM fuel. In order to perform the analysis, two scenarios are developed for projecting the share of the GEM cars(cars running on GEM fuel blends) in the Swedish passenger car fleet, considering a time horizon from 2017 to 2030. In Scenario 1, a high share of passenger cars running on GEM fuel is obtained with 22 percent by 2030. In Scenario 2, a low share of cars running on GEM fuel is obtained with 17 percent by 2030. In both scenarios, the passenger cars running on GEM fuel take over the share of cars running on gasoline. The scenarios serve to project the energy demand for GEM fuels. By 2030, the projected energy demand for GEM fuels is 9.7 and 7.5 TWh for Scenario 1 and Scenario 2, respectively. From the biofuel potential studies, it can be concluded that the production potential of the alcohol fuels, derived from currently untapped domestic secondary resources, exceeds the projected energy demand of 9.7 and 7.5 TWh in 2030. According to this thesis, the production potential of 2nd generation ethanol and methanol are 36 and 61.1 TWh, respectively, by 2030. Moreover, the study shows that the majority of the existing fuel distribution network of E85 and gasoline, which is forecasted to have a significant overcapacity in the same time‐span as the scenarios, can be utilized in a GEM fuel distribution network. As a consequence, no major investments are required to develop a Swedish GEM fuel distribution network. Regarding the selection of the biofuel production pathways, this study indicates the most suitable way of producing methanol is by black‐liquor gasification. Regarding second‐generation ethanol, this thesis indicates that the fermentation forestry residues is the most beneficial production pathway. The biofuel production pathways are selected based on the energy yield ratios, the biofuel production cost and biomass feedstock cost. Moreover, this study demonstrates that under the current Swedish policies, GEM fuels blends are economic competitive with gasoline and E85. In order to test the economic competitiveness, a pay‐off curve was developed based on the pump price of gasoline and fuel economy of GEM fuel blends. This study shows the pump prices of GEM fuel blends pay‐off in comparison to gasoline. This analysis indicates that the pump prices of GEM fuel blends lays between 0.87 and 0.92 euro per liter. Regarding the environmental impact, this study indicates that the amount of GHG emissions avoided varies between 10.1 and 13.3 million metric tons CO2eq in Scenario 1. In Scenario 2, the amount of GHG emissions that can be avoided varies between 8.6 and 11.3 million metric tons CO2eq. Moreover, this study indicates that high methanol containing GEM fuel blend are more favourable in terms of biomass utilization, and high ethanol containing GEM fuel blends are more favourable in terms of economy and GHG savings.