The thesis applies a variety of DSGE models to a set of problems whose common link is the analysis of economic fluctuations. The DSGE methodology is applied first to the analysis of economic fluctuations in Italy. After documenting' the crucial features of economic fluctuations in Italy (high volatility of hours worked and low volatility of employment), the thesis explains why the standard RBC model cannot reproduce them. Therefore, a modified RBC model with labour adjustment costs and an underground sector is introduced, and its performance analysed. Then, the thesis utilizes DSGE theory to study how fluctuations are transmitted within and between countries. Using a two-country general equilibrium model with monopolistic competition and sticky prices, it examines first the relative effects of a wide range (money, supply and demand) of shocks, and then the aggregate effects separately. The relative effects are the consequences of shocks for the relative price and quantities of domestic tradeables versus nontradeables. The main finding is that not only sector- specific shocks affect these relative prices and allocations, but also aggregate monetary shocks, thus contributing to explain why money has sectoral effects, as in the empirical literature. The aggregate effects are the consequences of shocks for the main macroeconomic variables. The analysis of the aggregate effects differs from the most recent literature because: 1) the role of critical parameters in the transmission is analysed simultaneously 2) the analysis is not confined to monetary shocks 3) supply and demand shocks are disaggregated by sector 4) the assumptions that the marginal productivity of labour may be decreasing, and that individuals cannot work in both sectors, are introduced. The aggregate effects of the shocks depend on the choice of parameters. The assump tion that individuals cannot work in both sectors leads to a lower elasticity of marginal costs with respect to output.

The 2007 financial crisis has shown that economists have been behind the curve in regard to mapping, modelling and monitoring the highly interconnected and global financial system. The failure of financial institutions has led to fears of system failure from domino effects of one failed entity bringing down others. This has given rise to concepts such as financial contagion and "too interconnected to fail". The latter was cited when there were tax payer bailouts of large financial intermediaries (FIs). This thesis has adopted network models to analyse the structure and stability of financial markets. Systemic risk from financial contagion is analysed on the basis of network stability, measured by the maximum eigenvalue of the network of bilateral financial obligations between FIs, and the corresponding eigenvector centrality of the FI is a measure of its contribution to network instability. A Pigou type negative externalities tax is designed on the basis of the eigenvector centrality (EVC) for FIs to internalize the costs they inflict on others by their failure. Chapter 3 reconstructs the financial network for the credit default swaps (CDS) which have been implicated in the recent crisis. Both the financial contagion characteristics of the CDS network and the use of the EVC tax is studied. Chapter 4 investigates the role of large complex financial intermediaries (LCFIs) in their global operations in OTC financial derivatives markets. The bilateral flows are empirically calibrated to reflect data based constraints. This produces a tiered network with a distinct highly clustered central core of 16 LCFIs. In Chapter 5 a novel genetic algorithm optimisation method is implemented to empirically fit networks that satisfy multiple constraints arising from balance sheet data. As FIs belong to multiple markets, each of which has its own network topology, the aggregated single network is often not a true picture of the complex interconnections. Chapter 6 uses a multi-layer network approach to generalize the eigenvector centrality measure from a single network case.

This thesis is about multi-period problems in which the decision-maker or players cannot see far enough ahead to solve the problem completely. The thesis considers why it might be that players reason forwards at all, let alone reasoning forwards only finitely far. It shows, using finite automata, that there is a class of problems for which forwards reasoning is more efficient than backwards reasoning. It goes on to use these finite automata to solve for an optimal foresight length. It then discusses solution concepts, and applies its preferred solution concept to two problems - one macro problem involving a central banker, and one micro problem concerning the decision whether to smoke.

Orientador : Armando João Dalla Costa / Coorientador : Nelson Rosas Ribeiro / Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Federal do Paraná, Setor de Ciencias Sociais Aplicadas, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Desenvolvimento Ecônomico. Defesa : 18/03/2016 / Inclui referências : f.215-219 / Resumo: O presente trabalho constitui um estudo teórico e empírico acerca das Crises Econômicas do Capitalismo. Com o intuito de contribuir para o desenvolvimento da Teoria Marxista das Crises Cíclicas de Superprodução, temos como objetivo realizar uma análise crítica da interpretação Mendonça-Ribeiro da referida teoria e aplicar o produto desta análise ao estudo do movimento cíclico da economia brasileira no período que vai de 1997 a 2010. O trabalho foi realizado através da leitura crítica de bibliografia selecionada e da coleta e tratamento de dados secundários. No que tange à parte teórica, acreditamos que fomos capazes de apresentar um instrumental de análise rigoroso do fenômeno estudado, o qual constitui uma versão modificada da interpretação acima referida. Quanto à parte empírica, atestamos primeiramente a aderência da teoria utilizada através da análise do componente cíclico do Produto Interno Bruto da economia brasileira, extraído com a utilização do filtro Baxter-King. Além disso, estudamos o movimento cíclico desta economia durante o período supracitado, chegando à seguinte periodização: 1997.T3-1999.T4: crise; 2000.T1-2002.T2: depressão; 2002.T3-2005.T4: animação média; 2006.T1-2008.T3: auge; 2008.T4: crise. Palavras-chave: Crise Econômica; Superprodução, Economia Brasileira, Teoria Marxista. / Abstract: This thesis is a theoretical and empirical study on the economic crises of capitalism. With the intention to contribute to the development of the Marxist Theory of Cyclical Crises of Overproduction, our aim is to conduct a critical analysis of the Mendonca-Ribeiro interpretation of the referred theory and apply the outcome of it to the study of the Brazilian economy cyclical movement in the period that goes from 1997 to 2010. Our aim was accomplished through a critical reading of selected bibliography and through collection and processing of secondary data. Regarding the theoretical work, we believe we were able to present a rigorous framework, which is a modified version of Mendonça-Ribeiro framework. Regarding the empirical work, firstly we attest theory validity through the analysis of the cyclical component of Brazilian economy's Gross Domestic Product, obtained by the use of the Baxter-King Filter. Furthermore, we analyzed the Brazilian economy cyclical movement during the period mentioned above and found the following periodization: 1997.T3-1999.T4: crisis; 2000.T1-2002.T2: trough; 2002.T3-2005.T4: expansion; 2006.T1-2008.T3: peak; 2008.T4: crisis. Keywords: Economic Crisis, Overproduction, Brazilian Economy, Marxist Theory.

Depuis son éruption en septembre 2009, la crise de la zone euro a été au centre de l'attention des économistes et des décideurs politiques. L'objectif principal de cette thèse est de développer des modèles théoriques pertinents afin d'analyser les facteurs à l'origine de la crise jumelle des banques et de la dette souveraine dans une union monétaire avec une architecture institutionnelle globalement similaire de l'Union économique et monétaire avant 2012. Tout en mettant l'accent sur la vulnérabilité financière, nous explorons la relation entre le secteur bancaire, l'économie réelle et le budget du gouvernement dans le contexte d 'une union monétaire. Cette thèse se compose de quatre modèles théoriques de la crise bancaire, avec le premier illustrant la crise financière qui avait éclaté en 2008 dans les petites économies européennes en dehors de l 'UEM et les trois modèles suivants élucidant la situation de crise dans la zone euro en2009 jusqu'en 2012. / In this Ph. D. thesis, we analyze the conditions for the emergence and the aggravation of the recent crisis in Europe from 2008 to 2012. The major objective of this Ph. D. thesis is to develop theoretical models which will be effective in investigating the twin banking and sovereign debt crises in a monetary union with a broadly similar institutional design to the EMU before 2012. Different from 'traditional' financial crisis models that shed light on the role of the central bank in crisis policy response, the models developed in this thesis investigate and underline the importance of fiscal crisis management. White accentuating financial vulnerability, we explore the relationship between the banking sector, the realeconomy and the public budget in the context of a monetary union. This thesis consists of four theoretical models of the banking crisis, with the first framework depicting the financial crisis which burst in 2008 in small European economies outside the EMU and the next three models elucidating the crisis situation in the Eurozone from early 2009 until August 2012.

Face aux enjeux socioéconomiques, démocratiques, et environnementaux, la croissance économique comme fin en soi, ou comme condition nécessaire au « développement », est de nouveau remise en cause. Depuis le début du XXIème siècle, suscitant un intérêt grandissant et de vifs échanges, la Décroissance se fraie une place dans le débat. Après avoir resitué son émergence dans la perspective historique de la controverse qui s'est développée, au cours de la deuxième moitié du XXe siècle, autour de la croissance et du modèle de développement des pays industrialisés, nous suggérons une synthèse des principales idées et des propositions concrètes actuellement portées par ses partisans. Celles-ci soulèvent un certain nombre de questions complexes, pour lesquelles nous proposons d'apporter quelques éclairages à travers un exercice de modélisation prospective. Nous réalisons pour cela une série d'entretiens, qui visent à recueillir différentes visions détaillées et quantifiées de ce que pourraient être, selon les participants, des scénarios de Décroissance, ou - plus largement- des scénarios de transitions souhaitables et soutenables, notamment en termes d'évolution des institutions, des modes de vie et de consommation, pour la France. En parallèle de ces entretiens, nous développons un modèle spécifique de simulation dynamique de l'économie française, construit autour de l'analyse entrées-sorties, sur la base de données publiques, et incorporant un haut niveau de détail. A l'aide de cet outil macroéconomique, nous proposons alors d'explorer, sur un horizon à long terme (2060) les implications possibles de différents scénarios, dont ceux élaborés à partir des entretiens. Nous nous intéressons par exemple aux conséquences possibles en termes d'emploi, de finances publiques, de consommation d'énergie, d'émissions de polluants atmosphériques, et de production de déchets. Les résultats des simulations soulignent l'importance des choix institutionnels, des facteurs culturels, comportementaux, et « non-techniques », et le potentiel de certaines propositions des mouvements de la Décroissance. Ils invitent ainsi à ouvrir le débat autour de la construction collective d'un nouveau projet de société. Dans cette perspective, notre approche offre un support simple et efficace pour la compréhension commune et la délibération collective. / The development paths followed by industrial societies in the last decades have led them in front of complex socioeconomic, democratic and environmental crises, which question the relevance of economic growth, either as a goal in itself, or as a way to achieve “development”. With the emergence of the degrowth movement at the beginning of the 21st century, the call for transitions towards sustainable “post-growth societies” is now consolidating into a multifaceted political project. For the “wealthiest” countries, where the ecological footprint per capita is greater than the global sustainable level, this project may be envisioned as a voluntary, socially sustainable, equitable and smooth downscaling of production and consumption, and thus throughput, to an environmentally sustainable level. Such a project raises numerous questions, for instance: what concrete proposals could initiate such a transition? What could such paths induce in terms of employment, public debt, energy consumption, waste, or greenhouse gas emission mitigation? What structural or institutional obstacles must be overcome and how? Etc. In this research, we offer to discuss such questions with the help of prospective modeling. Our approach involves a series of interviews, conducted, among others, with actors within the Degrowth movement. These are aimed at collecting detailed and quantified visions or narratives about what Degrowth scenarios or – more broadly speaking– scenarios of transition towards sustainable and desirable societies could look like, for France, in the mind of participants, especially in terms of institutions, lifestyles and consumption patterns. In parallel, we have designed and developed a specific dynamic simulation model of the French monetary economy, featuring a high level of detail and disaggregation, based on input-output analysis, and built using public data. Using this macroeconomic tool, we investigate, over the long term (2060), the possible outcomes of different scenarios, including those inferred from the interviews, in terms of employment, public debt, energy consumption, waste and atmospheric emissions. We discuss the potential strengths and weaknesses of the different visions they reflect. Our results highlight in particular the importance of cultural, social, behavioral and “non-technical” factors, stress the potential of various degrowth proposals, and recall the critical need for the collective elaboration of a societal project. In this perspective, our modeling approach provides a simple, yet powerful tool for common understanding and collective deliberation.

L’étude du personnel des Hauts-Fourneaux de Chasse pendant les Trente Glorieuses porte sur des catégories professionnelles diverses, sur leurs trajectoires et sur leur travail. Les politiques d’entreprises variées sont inégales selon les âges, sexes et nationalités. Les rapports entre salariés et dirigeants sont faits de collaborations en raison d’intérêts communs comme de tensions. Ils s’établissent dans un contexte de restructuration de l’industrie régionale et de l’évolution inégale des productions. La modernisation de l’outillage productif est alors régulièrement mobilisée, ce qui a un effet sur l’emploi et surtout sur le travail. La fin de cette période est marquée par des luttes pour maintenir ses activités sidérurgiques rassemblant au-delà du personnel de l’usine. Le site est pourtant restructuré et le personnel doit se reconvertir. Les sources à la fois publiques et privées, écrites et orales, sont diverses. / The study of Chasse-sur-Rhône’s blast furnaces staff deals with their various professional categories, careers and work. The varied companies’ policies are unequal when it comes to age, sex and nationality. The relationships between workers and managers rely on collaborations due to common interests as well as tensions. They are built in a context of regional industry redevelopment and unequal evolution of productions. The modernization of the productive tools is thus regularly activated, which has an impact on employment but mostly on work. The end of this period is characterized by struggles to maintain the steel activity gathering beyond the factory staff. However the site is redeveloped and the staff must redeploy. The various sources are both public and private, written and oral.