Decision making is an essential activity for humans and often becomes complex in the presence of uncertainty or insufficient knowledge. This research aims at estimating preferences using pairwise comparisons. A decision maker uses pairwise comparison when he/she is unable to directly assign criteria weights or scores to the available options. The judgments provided in pairwise comparisons may not always be consistent for several reasons. Experimentation has been used to obtain statistical evidence related to the widely-used consistency measures. The results highlight the need to propose new consistency measures. Two new consistency measures - termed congruence and dissonance - are proposed to aid the decision maker in the process of elicitation. Inconsistencies in pairwise comparisons are of two types i.e. cardinal and ordinal. It is shown that both cardinal and ordinal consistency can be improved with the help of these two measures. A heuristic method is then devised to detect and remove intransitive judgments. The results suggest that the devised method is feasible for improving ordinal consistency and is computationally more efficient than the optimization-based methods. There exist situations when revision of judgments is not allowed and prioritization is required without attempting to remove inconsistency. A new prioritization method has been proposed using the graph-theoretic approach. Although the performance of the proposed prioritization method was found to be comparable to other approaches, it has practical limitation in terms of computation time. As a consequence, the problem of prioritization is explored as an optimization problem. A new method based on multi-objective optimization is formulated that offers multiple non-dominated solutions and outperforms all other relevant methods for inconsistent set of judgments. A priority estimation tool (PriEsT) has been developed that implements the proposed consistency measures and prioritization methods. In order to show the benefits of PriEsT, a case study involving Telecom infrastructure selection is presented.

This thesis is an investigation into the unique rural banking system in Ghana and the role of information systems in fraud control. It presents a robust information security and internal control model to deal with fraud for the banking system. The rural banking industry has been noted for poor internal control leading to fraud. This has resulted in poor performance and even the collapse of some banks. The Focus of the study was on the processes used to deliver banking services. To design a protection system, a number of rural banks were visited. This was to understand the environment, regulatory regimes and the structure and banking processes of the industry and banks. Systemic vulnerabilities within the industry which could be exploited for fraud were found. The lack of structures like an address system and unreliable identification documents makes it difficult to use conventional identification processes. Also the lack of adequate controls, small staff numbers and the cross organisational nature of some transactions among other cultural issues reduces the ability to implement transaction controls. Twenty fraud scenarios were derived to illustrate the manifestation of these vulnerabilities. The rural banking integrity model was developed to deal with these observations. This protection model was developed using existing information security models and banking control mechanisms but incorporating the nature of the rural banking industry and culture of its environment. The fraud protection model was tested against the fraud scenarios and was shown to meet the needs of the rural banking industry in dealing with its systemic vulnerabilities. The proposed community-based identification scheme deals with identification weaknesses as an alternative to conventional identity verification mechanisms. The Transaction Authentication Code uses traditional adinkra symbols. Whilst other mechanisms like the Transaction Verification Code design v internal controls into the banking processes. This deals with various process control weaknesses and avoids human discretion in complying with controls. Object based separation of duties is also introduced as a means of controlling conflicting tasks which could lead to fraud.

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Les travaux menés dans cette thèse CIFRE s’inscrivent dans le cadre d’une collaboration pérenne entre le CRAN et l'EDF R&D dont un des résultats majeurs a été le développement d'une méthodologie d’analyse de risques, appelée Analyse Intégrée des Risques (AiDR). Cette méthodologie traite des systèmes sociotechniques sous les angles technique, humain et organisationnel et dont les équipements sont soumis à des actions de maintenance et/ou de conduite. La thèse a pour objet ainsi de proposer une évolution du modèle dit de « barrière humaine » développé dans l'AiDR pour évaluer l'efficacité de ces actions humaines prises leur contexte organisationnel. Nos contributions majeures s'organisent autour de 3 axes : 1. Une amélioration de la structure préexistante du modèle de barrière humaine afin d’aboutir à un modèle basé sur des facteurs de forme appelés performance shaping factors (PSF) fournis par les méthodes d’Évaluation Probabiliste de la Fiabilité Humaine (EPFH) ;2. L’intégration de la résilience et la modélisation de l’interaction entre mécanismes résilients et pathogènes impactant l'efficacité des actions dans les relations causales probabilistes ;3. Un traitement global des jugements d’expert cohérent avec la structure mathématique du modèle proposé permettant d’estimer d’une manière objective les paramètres du modèle. Ce traitement se fonde sur la construction d’un questionnaire permettant de "guider" l’expert vers l’évaluation d’effets conjoints issus de l’interaction entre mécanismes pathogènes et résilients. L’ensemble des contributions proposées a été validé sur un cas d’application portant sur une barrière humaine mise en place dans un cas d’inondation externe d’une unité de production d’électricité d’EDF / The work carried out in this CIFRE PhD thesis is part of a long-term collaboration between CRAN and EDF R&D, one of the major results of which was the development of a risk analysis methodology called Integrated Risk Analysis (AiDR). This methodology deals with sociotechnical systems from technical, human and organizational points of view and whose equipment is subjected to maintenance and/or operation activities. This thesis aims to propose an evolution of the so-called "human barrier" model developed in the AiDR in order to evaluate the effectiveness of these human actions taken their organizational context. Our major contributions are organized around 3 axes: 1. Improvement of the pre-existing structure of the human barrier model to achieve a model based on performance shaping factors (PSF) provided by the Human Reliability Assessment (HRA) methods; 2. Integration of resilience and modeling of the interaction between resilient and pathogenic mechanisms impacting the effectiveness of activities in a probabilistic causal framework; 3. A global treatment of the expert judgments consistent with the mathematical structure of the proposed model in order to objectively estimate the parameters of the model. This treatment is based on a questionnaire to guide experts towards the evaluation of joint effects resulting from the interaction between pathogenic and resilient mechanisms. All of the proposed contributions have been validated on an application case involving a human barrier put in place during an external flooding occurring at an EDF power plant

Η παρούσα διδακτορική διατριβή πραγματεύεται το θέμα της επιχειρησιακής στρατηγικής των Τεχνολογιών Πληροφορικής και Επικοινωνιών (ΤΠΕ) στις Μικρομεσαίες Επιχειρήσεις (ΜΜΕ), καθώς επίσης και τον τρόπο με τον οποίο οι ΤΠΕ επηρεάζουν στην πραγματικότητα την ανάπτυξη και την ανταγωνιστικότητα των ΜΜΕ. Ο λόγος που στρέψαμε το ερευνητικό ενδιαφέρον μας στις ΜΜΕ έγκειται στη κοινή παραδοχή ότι συμβάλλουν αποφασιστικά στην οικονομική ανάπτυξη, την παραγωγή, την ανταγωνιστικότητα, την απασχόληση καθώς επίσης στην αποκέντρωση και την κοινωνική συνοχή. Επίσης, λειτουργούν ως φυτώρια νέων επιχειρήσεων, καινοτόμων ειδών και εφαρμογών, ευέλικτων επιχειρηματικών σχημάτων, εξυπηρέτησης τοπικών αναγκών καθώς και χωροταξικής κατανομής θέσεων απασχόλησης και εισοδήματος. Από την άλλη, η αναγκαιότητα ύπαρξης μιας σύγχρονης τεχνολογικής υποδομής στο επιχειρηματικό περιβάλλον θεωρείται πλέον μία αυτονόητη αξία, καθώς συμβάλλει στην αύξηση της παραγωγικότητας και της ανταγωνιστικότητας μιας επιχείρησης, ενώ, ταυτοχρόνως της παρέχει την απαιτούμενη ευελιξία για να προσαρμόζεται στις ταχέως μεταβαλλόμενες συνθήκες της αγοράς. Για την βιβλιογραφική ανασκόπηση του θέματος βασιστήκαμε σε μεγάλο αριθμό επιστημονικών μελετών καθώς και στη μελέτη σχετικών ερευνών με το αντικείμενο της έρευνάς μας. Η συλλογή των πρωτογενών στοιχείων πραγματοποιήθηκε με τη μέθοδο των προσωπικών συνεντεύξεων και με τη χρήση δομημένου ερωτηματολόγιου στο χώρο εργασίας των ερωτώμενων. Από τις εκατό ΜΜΕ που προσεγγίσαμε, αποκρίθηκαν θετικά για συμμετοχή στην έρευνας μας οι πενήντα τέσσερις (54). Η επιλογή του δείγματος έγινε με τυχαία στρωματοποιημένη δειγματοληψία στους Νομούς Αττικής, Θεσσαλονίκης, Αχαΐας και Ηρακλείου. Η εμπειρική ανάλυση ανέδειξε σημαντικά στατιστικά στοιχεία για την χρήση των ΤΠΕ στις διάφορες κατηγορίες των ΜΜΕ και στους τέσσερις κλάδους οικονομικής δραστηριότητας που έλαβαν μέρος στην έρευνα μας. Επίσης, σημαντικές στατιστικές υποθέσεις ελέγχτηκαν για την εξακρίβωση της σχέσης-εξάρτησης μεταξύ των ΤΠΕ και των διαφορετικών κατηγοριών και των κλάδων των ΜΜΕ. Εν συνεχεία, η ταξινόμηση των ΤΠΕ καθώς και η δημιουργία των νέων οργανωτικών δομών (ΤΠΕ-Οργανωτικές δομές – οργανωτικές δομές που προέκυψαν ανάλογα με το είδος των ΤΠΕ που έχουν υιοθετηθεί από τις ΜΜΕ) μας έδωσαν την ευκαιρία για περαιτέρω στατιστικούς ελέγχους καθώς και την δυνατότητα δημιουργίας τριών υποδειγμάτων, εκ των οποίων, το πρώτο εξετάζει την πιθανότητα ανάπτυξη των ΜΜΕ μέσω των ΤΠΕ, το δεύτερο υπόδειγμα εξετάζει την επίδραση των ΤΠΕ-οργανωτικών δομών και των κλάδων οικονομικής δραστηριότητας στις επενδύσεις σε ΤΠΕ από τις ΜΜΕ και το τρίτο υπόδειγμα εξετάζει την επίδραση από την ύπαρξη συγκεκριμένης στρατηγικής υιοθέτησης και χρήσης των ΤΠΕ και των νέων ΤΠΕ-οργανωτικών δομών στις επενδύσεις σε ΤΠΕ από τις ΜΜΕ. / The present doctoral thesis deals with the subject of Strategic Management of Technologies of Information technology and Communications (ICT) in Small to medium-sized Enterprises (SME), as well as the way in which the ICT influence actually the growth and the competitiveness of SME. The reason, we turned our inquiring interest in the SME lies in the common admission that small and medium sized enterprises decisively contribute to economic development, production, competitiveness, employment, as well as decentralization and social coherence. They also function as the seedbed of new enterprises, innovative products and applications, flexible business forms, servicing of local needs and a zoning plan for the distribution of employment and income. On the other hand, the existence necessity of a modern technological infrastructure is considered as an obvious value in the enterprising environment, as contributes to the increase of productivity and the competitiveness of enterprise. At the same time, new technological inventions give the necessary flexibility to SME for adapting themselves rapidly to the altering conditions of markets. PhD combines a significant literature review of relevant journal publications with primary data collected from the various SMEs. A joint methodology of fully-structured questionnaire and in-depth interviews was selected as the primary research instrument in order to gain as broad a view as possible of the issues surrounding application of ICT. A total of 100 companies was selected and letters were sent out requesting an interview, while follow-up telephone calls by the researchers negotiated access to each business. Fifty-four SMEs were positive responded. A stratified random sample of SMEs was drawn among a spectrum of SMEs in the Prefectures of Attica, Thessaloniki, Achaia and Heraclion. The empirical analysis brought out important statistical elements in the use of ICT for the various categories of SME in the four sectors of economic activity. Also, important statistical hypotheses were tested for the verification of the relationship-dependence between the ICTs and SMEs. The classification of ICT and the creation of new organizational forms (ICT-organizational forms, which have been come from the type of ICT that have been adopted by the SME) offered us the opportunity for further statistical tests as well as the capability for the creation of three models. The first model examines the probability of small firm’s development through the effective-efficient use of ICT (The potential for development of the SMEs was evaluated through a model of binomial logistic regression). The second model examines the influence of ICT-Organizational Forms and Industry Sectors on ICT-Investments, and, the third model tests the influence of ICT-Organizational Forms & ICT-Strategy (SMEs, which have set up a specific strategy for the adoption and use of ICTs) on ICT-Investments in SME sector. (The influence of ICT-Organizational Forms was evaluated through a model of a two-way Analysis of Variance-ANOVA).

Dans le contexte actuel de compétition exacerbée, les Systèmes d’Information des Petites et Moyennes Entreprises se basent de plus en plus sur des progiciels tels que les ERP - Enterprise Resource Planning. Compte tenu de l’aspect standard de ceux-ci, il est nécessaire de gérer l’alignement entre les besoins réels de l’entreprise et les fonctionnalités standards de l’ERP. Pour ce faire, nous le considérons sous l’angle des risques en définissant le Risque de Non-Alignement (RNA). Sur la base d’un état de l’art du management des risques dans les projets, nous proposons de le traiter selon deux stratégies complémentaires d’optimisation anticipatives : l’une agissant sur son effet et l’autre, sur son occurrence. Notre état de l’art des méthodes d’ingénierie dirigée par les modèles, moyen pour mettre en oeuvre la première stratégie, montre que les processus d’alignement permettant d’identifier le nonalignement, d’évaluer son effet et d’y pallier restent trop macroscopiques pour traiter réellement le RNA. Notre état de l’art sur le management des facteurs de risque, moyen pour mettre en oeuvre la seconde stratégie, met en avant des lacunes au niveau des outils permettant d’identifier et traiter les facteurs agissant sur le RNA. Pour répondre à notre problématique, nous proposons, d’abord, la méthode « Model Driven - ERP Alignment » permettant de (1) guider finement l’identification du non-alignement sur la base de la norme de modélisation d’entreprise ISO 19440 ; (2) d’évaluer son effet et (3) d’y associer les décisions adéquates. Elle prend également en compte le niveau de granularité des activités ainsi que leurs interdépendances. Nous proposons également l’approche « Risk-Factor Driven - ERP Alignment ». Elle consiste en une démarche d’identification et de traitement des facteurs de risque (FR) sur la base des outils suivants : variables des FR, matrice des liens résiduels entre FR, classification des FR en fonction du cycle de vie du projet ERP et matrice FR / pratiques de gestion. Ce travail étant co-financé par la Région Alsace et une PME de la Région Strasbourgeoise, nous avons adopté une démarche de recherche / action qui a, entre autres, permis d’appliquer et valider nos contributions. / In the current context of fierce competition, the Information Systems of SME are increasingly based on “off-theshelf” products like the ERP - Enterprise Resource Planning - systems. As this kind of system offers a generic solution, the alignment between the company’s real needs and the ERP standard functionalities must be ensured. Therefore, we propose to define the so called Misalignment Risk (MR). Our literature review on project risk management leads us to propose two complementary strategies to manage the MR allowing its optimization: the first one works on the effect of the MR and the second one, on its occurrence. Our analysis of the model driven engineering methods, allowing the implementation of the first strategy, shows that: the alignment processes proposed to identify the misalignment, to evaluate its effect and to mitigate it are too macroscopic. Concerning the means to implement the second strategy, we highlight the weaknesses of the tools proposed to support the identification and treatment of the risk factors influencing the MR. We thus propose, firstly the “Model Driven -ERP Alignment” method allowing (i) the identification of the alignment and misalignment situations in a detailedmanner and on the basis of the ISO 19440 norm, (ii) the evaluation of its effect and (iii) its association to adequate decisions. The granularity level and the interdependencies of the processes’ activities are also taken into account. Secondly we propose the “Risk-Factor Driven - ERP Alignment” approach. It consists in the proposition of a process allowing the identification and treatment of risk factors (RF) influencing the MR. to succeed in following tools are set up: RF variables, RF residual link matrix, RF life cycle classification and RF / management practices matrix. As this work is supported by both the Region Alsace and a SME located near Strasbourg, we follow an action / research approach. It allowed us to apply and validate our contributions.

This study was aimed at exploring data analysis techniques for generating accurate estimates of the loss in quality of fresh fruits, vegetables and cut flowers in chilled supply chains based on data from advanced sensors. It was motivated by the recent interest in the application of advanced sensors, by emerging concepts in quality controlled logistics, and by the desire to minimise quality losses during transport and storage of the produce. Cut roses were used in this work although the findings will also be applicable to other produce. The literature has reported that whilst temperature was considered to be the most critical post-harvest factor, others such as growing conditions could also be important in the senescence of cut roses. Kinetic modelling was the most commonly used modelling approach for shelf life predictions of foods and perishable produce, but not for estimating vase life (VL) of cut flowers, and so this was explored in this work along with multiple linear regression (MLR) and partial least squares (PLS). As the senescence of cut roses is not fully understood, kinetic modelling could not be implemented directly. Consequently, a novel technique, called Kinetic Linear System (KLS), was developed based on kinetic modelling principles. Simulation studies of shelf life predictions for tomatoes, mushrooms, seasoned soybean sprouts, cooked shrimps and other seafood products showed that the KLS models could effectively replace the kinetic ones. With respect to VL predictions KLS, PLS and MLR were investigated for data analysis from an in-house experiment with cut roses from Cookes Rose Farm (Jersey). The analysis concluded that when the initial and final VLs were available for model calibration, effective estimates of the post-harvest loss in VL of cut roses could be obtained using the post-harvest temperature. Otherwise, when the initial VLs were not available, such effective estimates could not be obtained. Moreover, pre-harvest conditions were shown to correlate with the VL loss but the correlation was too weak to produce or improve an effective estimate of the loss. The results showed that KLS performance was the best while PLS one could be acceptable; but MLR performance was not adequate. In another experiment, boxes of cut roses were transported from a Kenyan farm to a UK distribution centre. Using KLS and PLS techniques, the analysis showed that the growing temperature could be used to obtain effective estimates of the VLs at the farm, at the distribution centre and also the in-transit loss. Further, using post-harvest temperature would lead to a smaller error for the VL at the distribution centre and the VL loss. Nevertheless, the estimates of the VL loss may not be useful practically due to the excessive relative prediction error. Overall, although PLS had a slightly smaller prediction error, KLS worked effectively in many cases where PLS failed, it could handle constraints while PLS could not.In conclusion, KLS and PLS can be used to generate effective estimates of the post-harvest VL loss of cut roses based on post-harvest temperature stresses recorded by advanced sensors. However, the estimates may not be useful practically due to significant relative errors. Alternatively, pre-harvest temperature could be used although it may lead to slightly higher errors. Although PLS had slightly smaller errors KLS was more robust and flexible. Further work is recommended in the objective evaluations of product quality, alternative non-linear techniques and dynamic decision support system.

The availability of ultra high-frequency (UHF) data on transactions has revolutionised data processing and statistical modelling techniques in finance. The unique characteristics of such data, e.g. discrete structure of price change, unequally spaced time intervals and multiple transactions have introduced new theoretical and computational challenges. In this study, we develop a Bayesian framework for modelling integer-valued variables to capture the fundamental properties of price change. We propose the application of the zero inflated Poisson difference (ZPD) distribution for modelling UHF data and assess the effect of covariates on the behaviour of price change. For this purpose, we present two modelling schemes; the first one is based on the analysis of the data after the market closes for the day and is referred to as off-line data processing. In this case, the Bayesian interpretation and analysis are undertaken using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The second modelling scheme introduces the dynamic ZPD model which is implemented through Sequential Monte Carlo methods (also known as particle filters). This procedure enables us to update our inference from data as new transactions take place and is known as online data processing. We apply our models to a set of FTSE100 index changes. Based on the probability integral transform, modified for the case of integer-valued random variables, we show that our models are capable of explaining well the observed distribution of price change. We then apply the deviance information criterion and introduce its sequential version for the purpose of model comparison for off-line and online modelling, respectively. Moreover, in order to add more flexibility to the tails of the ZPD distribution, we introduce the zero inflated generalised Poisson difference distribution and outline its possible application for modelling UHF data.

Dans le domaine du projet de conception-construction architecturale, la gestion de la collaboration entre les différents acteurs d'un projet est un enjeu important. D'un projet à un autre, en fonction du projet, mais aussi des acteurs qui y interviennent, les pratiques de travail varient. Parallèlement, de nombreux services sont proposés et utilisés pour assister la collaboration, certains sur un modèle « grand public » et d'autres plus orientés vers un usage professionnel. L'expérience CRTI-weB est un projet de développement d'un collecticiel mené avec et pour les professionnels du secteur au Luxembourg. Malgré l'étude des besoins métiers menée en amont du développement, l'outil présente cependant des manques d'adaptation. Ce constat d'inadaptation n'est pas un cas isolé, il reflète une lacune générale de ce genre d'outils à satisfaire pleinement les attentes des professionnels. C'est pourquoi ce travail doctoral propose un cadre d'analyse supporté par la modélisation des comportements des utilisateurs. Nous adoptons alors plusieurs points de vue relatifs à différents champs de recherches : le génie logiciel, la conception d'interfaces homme-machine, l'entreprise orientée services et la conception de système d'information, et enfin le travail collaboratif assisté par ordinateur (TCAO). Nous proposons la méthode PUSH (Practices and Usages based Services enHancement) qui orchestre ces différents points de vue et permet de générer un ensemble d'exigences pour le développement de services dits « adaptés ». Communication et traçabilité sont les maitres mots de cette méthode de conception. Le contexte d'étude à la fois orienté recherche et développement nous a permis d'évaluer et d'améliorer la définition des concepts mis en avant ainsi que la mise en place de la méthode PUSH à travers trois expérimentations / In the sector of the architectural design-construction project, the management of the collaboration between the different actors of a project is an important issue. From a project to another, considering the project type and also the actors involved, business practices vary. In parallel, many services are proposed and used to assist the collaboration, some of them being generic and others more specific to professional usage. The CRTI-weB experience is a groupware development project lead with and for professionals of the Luxembourgish sector. Despite the analysis of business needs lead before development, the tool has some lacks of adaptation. This statement isn't isolated; in general, this type of tools doesn't fully satisfy professionals' expectations. This doctoral work proposes an analysis framework supported by users' behaviors modeling. We adopt several viewpoints related to several research fields: software engineering, human-computer interactions design, service-oriented enterprise and information system design, and finally computer-supported collaborative work (CSCW We propose the PUSH method (Practice and Usages based Service enhancement) that orchestrates the different viewpoints to generate an amount of requirements for the development of adapted services. The communication and the traceability are supported by this design method. The context of study, both research and development-oriented (through the collaboration of the MAP-CRAI laboratory in Nancy and the CRP Henri Tudor in Luxembourg) allows us evaluating and enhancing the definition of our concepts and the applicability of the PUSH method through three experimentations