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This research investigated the potential effects of managerial overconfidence and regret aversion in a corporate capital investment context. Three fundamental decision problems are analysed: Project selection (accepting or rejecting a proposed investment), managerial effort, and project evaluation (continuing or abandoning a failing investment). Very little previous research has looked at the role of psychological biases in corporate finance decisions, and the joint analysis of the two studied biases within one model is also a fairly novel contribution. Solving by backward induction a theoretically derived model integrating these decisions as well as overconfidence and regret aversion, I outline the conditions under which a biased manager will make choices that are inefficient from a shareholder value perspective; however, the model also reveals that, in combination, the two psychological phenomena may off-set such that the optimal outcome can be obtained. I further demonstrate how my theoretical propositions can be supplemented with empirical data by means of a survey and two different experiments. The survey of UK managers with capital investment responsibility exposes the pervasiveness of overconfidence and regret aversion within the sample group. In addition, indications for potential associations between these biases and certain capital investment decision choices are found. To my knowledge, no such empirical study exists so far. To explore potential causal relationships between overconfidence and effort, overconfidence and project selection, as well as regret aversion and project evaluation choices, two experiments were designed and conducted. The experimental data provides tentative support for the model and indicates the potential value of largerscale future research. I close by discussing the implications of my results for corporate governance and suggesting avenues for future work in this area.

This thesis considers the role of mathematical programming in asset management. Large, extensive distribution networks are the focus of the work. In particular, we look at how to determine the optimal policy for project release. Projects relating to the replacement of existing assets and network re-design may be prioritized, given capital rationing and/or performance improvement requirements in a regulated economic environment. We consider the role of two approaches to modelling under uncertainty in determining an optimal policy for project release in network asset management. These are Monte Carlo simulation and fuzzy linear programming. We focus on the maintenance and replacement issues of a large distribution network (network structured system) and consider the application of these modelling approaches to electricity distribution networks. The electricity companies who own the UK electricity distribution networks are under pressure to provide a high quality supply to customers at a minimum cost. For this particular replacement problem, a zero-one integer linear programming model is proposed for selecting an optimal project portfolio, based on the objectives and constraints of the network owner. The modelling approach described in this doctoral study would extend to the financial investment appraisal of capital projects to a broad range of manufacturing and energy-related industries such as power generation, refining in terms of environment issues and water supply. This thesis presents mathematical programming models, using case studies to illustrate some of the appropriate techniques for developing such models. These case study models consider uncertainty and use Monte Carlo simulation to generate more representative results. The models demonstrate the usefulness of Monte Carlo simulation from which we can make recommendations about this and alternative approaches.

Dans un contexte de globalisation, d’économie du savoir et d’entreprises innovantes, la fidélisation des parties prenantes (PP) centrales demeure une réalité et une exigence de plus en plus importante pour assurer la performance. Si les actionnaires espèrent une forte rentabilité de leur investissement, les employés accordent une plus grande importance au maintien de l’emploi, aux conditions de travail. Cette recherche tente d’étudier un nouveau phénomène perceptuel : les facteurs déterminants de la fidélisation des PP ressources et leurs impacts sur la performance financière (PF) de l’entreprise. Notre objectif est de proposer un modèle intégrateur des déterminants de la fidélisation des investisseurs et personnels. Une analyse qualitative nous a permis de repérer et de retenir les principaux déterminants de la fidélisation des investisseurs. Un examen de la littérature a permis de construire un modèle explicatif de fidélisation des personnels. L’idée était de déterminer des échelles de mesure permettant de connaître l’importance de chaque déterminant pour assurer le maintien de ces PP et leurs effets sur la PF. La procédure mise au point dans notre recherche a donné lieu à de nombreux résultats satisfaisants dans la mesure où les tests économétriques sont positifs et prouvent qu’ils sont significatifs. Si les différents espaces de choix ont une influence positive sur la fidélisation des personnels, ils ont une influence négative sur l’intention de départ volontaire. Cette intention de départ a un effet négatif sur la PF contrairement à la fidélisation des investisseurs, qui a un effet positif, compte tenu des déterminants constatés, à l’aide des études qualitatives. / In a context of globalization, knowledge economy and innovative businesses and retaining stakeholders (PP) plants remains a reality and a requirement increasingly important to the performance. If shareholders expect a high return on their investment, employees place greater importance on maintaining employment, working conditions. This research tries to study a new perceptual phenomenon: the determinants of loyalty PP resources and their impact on financial performance (FP) of the company. Our goal is to propose an integrative model of the determinants of loyalty and personal investors. A qualitative analysis enabled us to identify and retain key determinants of loyalty investors. A review of the literature has built an explanatory model of personal loyalty. The idea was to identify scales that show the importance of each determinant to maintain these effects on PP and FP. The procedure developed in this research has led to many results satisfactory insofar econometric tests are positive and show that they are significant. If the different areas of choice have a positive influence on personal loyalty, they have a negative influence on the intention of quitting. This original intent has a negative effect on the PF unlike the loyalty of investors, which has a positive effect, given the observed determinants, using qualitative studies.

Cette recherche a pour objectif d’analyser l’influence de la prise de participation familiale en matière de propriété, de gestion et de conseil d’administration sur la performance des entreprises familiales. Les nombreux travaux de recherche précédents ont mis à jour des résultats divers et hétérogènes, notamment en ce qui concerne la diversité des genres siégeant au conseil d’administration. Les femmes au conseil sont souvent liées à une gestion efficace, améliorant en conséquence la performance financière. Les avantages et les inconvénients de la participation de la famille au capital et à la gestion de l’entreprise ont révélé l’existence d’effets non-linéaires, créés par ces deux variables, sur la performance. Une analyse de régression sur un échantillon de 97 entreprises a permis de révéler une corrélation quadratique négative entre la prise de participation de la famille dans la gestion et la performance, et aucune relation liant la prise de participation de la famille dans le capital et la performance. La littérature associe souvent la présence de membres de la famille dans la gestion de l’entreprise à des relations positives. Les conclusions obtenues dans cette recherche ont montré que cette corrélation n’était pas suffisamment significative pour compenser les inconvénients créés par une orientation des objectifs non monétaires. Il en est de même pour les couts générés par l’urgence de résoudre les conflits entre les gestionnaires de la famille ainsi que l’impossibilité d’envisager un élargissement du capital de l’entreprise, tant intellectuel que social. / This study aims to research the impact of family involvement in ownership, management and board of directors, on financial performance in family owned firms. The numerous previous studies have shown diverse and heterogeneous results, in the case of non-listed firms, particularly when gender diversity is observed in the board of directors. Women in boards are usually linked to effective management techniques, thus increasing financial performance. The existence of advantages and inconvenience of family participation in ownership and management have raised non-linear effects of these two variables on performance. With a sample of 97 private family firms in Lebanon, we performed a regression analysis. The findings showed a negative quadratic correlation between the involvement of the family in the management and performance whereas no relation linked family involvement in ownership to performance. According to the former literature on family firms, there is a positive relationship associated with the presence of family managers. The findings of this study showed that this correlation was not significantly sufficient to compensate for the drawbacks created from a goal orientation not related to money. The same goes for the cost generated by the urge to resolve differences between family managers and the impossibility of enlarging the organization’s social and intellectual capital by hiring non family managers.

Ο σκοπός αυτής της διατριβής είναι η υποδειγματοποίηση της επίδρασης της αβεβαιότητας στις αποφάσεις επένδυσης των επιχειρήσεων στην Ευρώπη και στην Ελλάδα. Για να γίνει αυτό, η διατριβή χτίζει ένα δυναμικό υπόδειγμα επένδυσης, όπου οι οικονομικές μεταβλητές, η αβεβαιότητα και η πραγματική επένδυση συνδέονται. Ελλείψει των αποκλίσεων από το νεοκλασικό παράδειγμα, η επένδυση αντιδρά θετικά στην αβεβαιότητα. Εντούτοις, όταν εισάγονται «τριβές» όπως ο ατελής ανταγωνισμός, η μη αναστρεψιμότητα του κεφαλαίου και οι φθίνουσες αποδόσεις κλίμακας, το θετικό πρόσημο της σχέσης επένδυσης-αβεβαιότητας εξασθενεί σταδιακά και τελικά γίνεται αρνητικό. Επιπλέον, αυτή η διατριβή παρέχει εμπειρικά ευρήματα υπέρ της θεωρητικής πρόβλεψης από τους Lee και Shin (2000) ότι η αβεβαιότητα μπορεί να ασκήσει ανομοιόμορφη επίδραση στην επένδυση δεδομένου ότι οι συναρτήσεις παραγωγής των ληπτών αποφάσεων εκθέτουν διαφορετικά μερίδια εργασίας. Εναλλακτικά μέτρα της αναστρεψιμότητας του κεφαλαίου υιοθετούνται, προερχόμενα είτε από την τεχνολογική είτε από τη συναλλακτική φύση της αναστρεψιμότητας. Ο τεχνολογικός ορισμός της αναστρεψιμότητας πηγάζει από τη δυνατότητα να υποκατασταθεί η εργασία με το κεφάλαιο. Από τη συναλλακτική σκοπιά, στατιστικά δεδομένα για δαπάνες σε μεταχειρισμένο κεφάλαιο και δαπάνες σε χρηματοδοτική μίσθωση χρησιμοποιήθηκαν ως έμμεσοι δείκτες του βαθμού αναστρεψιμότητας. Σύμφωνα με τη σχετική βιβλιογραφία, τα εμπειρικά μας αποτελέσματα δεικνύουν ότι η αρνητική επίπτωση της αβεβαιότητας στην επένδυση αυξάνεται μονοτονικά με το βαθμό της μη αναστρεψιμότητας. Η υπάρχουσα βιβλιογραφία που εστιάζει στην επίδραση της αβεβαιότητας στην επένδυση έχει αγνοήσει κατά ένα μεγάλο μέρος την ετερογένεια του κεφαλαίου. Αυτή η διατριβή καλύπτει αυτό το προφανές κενό, έχοντας ως σημείο αναφοράς το γεγονός ότι υπό την παρουσία πολλαπλών κεφαλαιουχικών αγαθών το συνολικό ποσοστό επένδυσης είναι το γινόμενο του εκτατικού και του εντατικού περιθωρίου. Κατόπιν, βασισμένοι στο επιχείρημα ότι η αβεβαιότητα έχει άμεση επίπτωση στο εκτατικό περιθώριο διερευνούμε εμπειρικά τη σχέση τους. Τα κύρια ευρήματά μας δείχνουν ότι η αβεβαιότητα ασκεί σημαντικά αρνητική επίδραση στον αριθμό των κεφαλαιουχικών αγαθών (εκτατικό περιθώριο) που ο λήπτης αποφάσεων αποφασίζει να επενδύσει. Αντίθετα το βάθος της επένδυσης (εκτατικό περιθώριο) βρέθηκε να μην αντιδρά στην αβεβαιότητα. Εφαρμόζουμε την τεχνική GMM των δυναμικών διαχρονικών και διαστρωματικών στοιχείων σε βιομηχανικό επίπεδο για τις περισσότερες από τις ηπειρωτικές ευρωπαϊκές χώρες για τρεις διαφορετικές χρονικές περιόδους, 1987-2002, 1989-2004 και 1995-2003. Επιπλέον, ένα δείγμα χρονικώς επαναλαμβανόμενων διαστρωματικών στοιχείων (ΧΕΔΣ) των ελληνικών βιομηχανιών μεταποίησης αξιοποιείται κατά τη διάρκεια της περιόδου 1993-2001. Τέλος, υιοθετούμε την υπό συνθήκη αβεβαιότητα προερχόμενη από ένα υπόδειγμα της μορφής Pooled-Panel GARCH. / The purpose of this thesis is to model the impact of uncertainty on the investment decisions of firms in Europe and in Greece. To do so, the thesis builds a dynamic investment model, where financial variables, uncertainty and real investment are linked. In the absence of deviations from the neoclassical paradigm investment reacts positively to uncertainty. However, as frictions are introduced such as imperfect competition, irreversibility of capital and decreasing returns-to-scale, the positive sign of the investment-uncertainty relationship gradually dies out and eventually turns negative. Furthermore, this thesis provides empirical evidence in favour of the theoretical prediction by Lee and Shin (2000) that uncertainty may exert a non-uniform impact on investment as decision makers' production functions exhibit differential labour shares. Alternative measures of capital irreversibility are employed, stemming from either the technological or the transactional nature of irreversibility. The technology-based definition views irreversibility in terms of the ability to substitute labour for capital. From a transactions-based concept, data on used capital investment expenditures and leasing penetration rates are employed as indirect indicators for the degree of irreversibility. Consistent with the relevant literature, the empirical results indicate that the negative effect of uncertainty on investment is monotonically increasing with the degree of irreversibility. The extant literature focusing on the impact of uncertainty on investment has largely ignored capital heterogeneity. This thesis fills this apparent gap having as departure point the fact that in the presence of multiple capital goods total investment rate is the product of the extensive and intensive margins. Then building on the argument that uncertainty affects directly the extensive margin we empirically explore their relationship. Our main results indicate that uncertainty exerts a significantly negative impact on the number of capital types (extensive margin) the decision maker decides to invest in. In contrast the depth of investment (intensive margin) is found to be insensitive to uncertainty. We employ a dynamic panel data methodology, the GMM estimation technique, on a panel data set at an industrial level for most of the continental European countries for the periods 1987-2002, 1989-2004 and 1995-2003. In addition, a panel data set of Greek manufacturing industries is also exploited over the period 1993-2001. Finally, conditional volatility is generated in a panel framework applying the Pooled-Panel GARCH method.

Orientador : Prof. Dr. Jorge Eduardo Scarpin / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Federal do Paraná, Setor de Ciências Sociais Aplicadas, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Contabilidade. Defesa: Curitiba, 2016 / Inclui referências : f. 112-130 / Área de concentração : Contabilidade e finanças / Resumo: O objetivo desta dissertação consistiu em identificar a relação entre os Mecanismos de Governança Corporativa e o Financial distress em companhias brasileiras de capital aberto. Os argumentos apresentados na literatura sobre o tema partem do pressuposto de que enquanto a governança corporativa pode ter efeitos marginais durante períodos normais do ciclo de vida da empresa, os mecanismos de governança corporativa podem ter efeitos significativos para a sobrevivência de uma empresa que está em situação de financial distress. Isso porque ao implantar boas práticas de governança a empresa consegue reduzir os conflitos de agências que, por sua vez, refletem na confiança dos investidores e credores. O efeito seria uma maior disponibilidade de capital de giro, redução do custo da dívida e um aumento do valor da empresa. Assim, a empresa poderia desfrutar de uma redução da probabilidade da dificuldade financeira. Para a realização da pesquisa, foi obtida uma amostra de 106 companhias brasileiras não financeiras de capital aberto no período de 2010 a 2014. Como proxy para financial distress, utilizou-se quatro métricas de probabilidade de default baseado nos modelos de Altman e Merton (1974). Para medir a governança corporativa, adaptou-se um índice de qualidade de governança corporativa (IQGC) composto de 23 requisitos dispostos em sete mecanismos: composição do conselho de administração; estrutura de propriedade e de controle; incentivos aos administradores; disclosure; proteção aos investidores; comitê de auditoria e assimetria de informação. A análise de dados foi conduzida por meio de estatísticas descritivas, análise de correlação linear, aplicação de testes não paramétricos e abordagem multivariada com dados em painel. Em suma, observouse que não há um incremento estatisticamente significante no nível do IQGC no que diz respeito à evolução dos anos. Verificou-se que o disclosure é o mecanismo de governança corporativa com maior aderência pelas companhias, por outro lado, o comitê de auditoria é o atributo com menor nível de governança. Com relação ao financial distress, concluiu-se que existe uma evolução ascendente no número de empresas que declinaram para uma situação de crise financeira durante o período de análise. Com base na estatística de Mann Whitney, todas as empresas em estado de financial distress apresentam níveis mais baixos de governança corporativa quando comparadas com empresas saudáveis, exceto no mecanismo Comitê de Auditoria, no qual não foi possível constar significância estatística. Na relação multivariada, o sinal obtido para a variável independente IQGC e os scores de financial distress foram negativos em todos os modelos de regressão, sendo a significância estatística encontrada apenas na métrica do Z-Score de Altman. Diante desses resultados, foi possível inferir que quanto maior o índice de qualidade de governança corporativa, menor é a probabilidade de financial distress. Palavras-chave: Governança Corporativa. Financial Distress. Índice. Mecanismos. Teoria da Agência. / Abstract: The aim of this work was to identify the relationship between the mechanisms of Corporate Governance and Financial distress in Brazilian open capital companies. The arguments presented within the literature on the subject, were based on the assumption that while corporate governance may have marginal effects during normal periods of the company life cycle, the corporate governance mechanisms can have substantial effects for the survival of a company in financial distress. This is because by implementing good governance practices the company can reduce agencies conflicts that, in turn, reflect the confidence of investors and creditors. The effect would be greater availability of working capital, reduction of the cost of debt and an increased value of the company. Thus, the company could enjoy a reduction in the probability of financial difficulties. For conducting the search, a sample of 106 non-financial Brazilian open capital companies was obtained, over the period of 2010-2014. As a proxy for financial distress, four metrics default probability were used, based on Merton (1974) and Altman models. To measure the corporate governance, a Corporate Governance Quality Index (CGQI) was adapted, consisting of 23 requirements set out in seven mechanisms: board administration composition; the ownership structure and control; management incentives; disclosure; investor's protection; audit committee and information asymmetry. The data analysis was conducted using descriptive statistics, linear correlation analysis, application of nonparametric tests and multivariate approach with panel data. In brief, it was observed that there is no statistically significant increment in the level of CGQI regarding the evolution of years. It was confirmed that disclosure is the corporate governance mechanism with greater adherence by companies in contrast to the audit committee, which shows the lowest level of governance. In respect to the financial distress, it could be concluded that there was an upward growth on the number of companies that dropped to financial crisis during the period of analysis. Based on Mann Whitney statistics, all companies in financial distress showed low level of corporate governance when compared to healthy ones, except in the Audit Committee mechanism, in which it was not possible to include statistical significance. During the multivariate relation, the signal obtained to the independent variable CGQI and the scores of financial distress were considered negative in all regression models, being the statistical significance only found in Altman's metric Z-Score. Given these results, it could be inferred that the higher the Corporate Governance Quality Index, the lower is the probability of financial distress. Keywords: Corporate Governance. Financial Distress. Index. Mechanisms. Agency Theory.

Companies and organizations in different industries around the world make use of different technologies for many reasons and purposes, such as to improve performance and to stay competitive. This raises some questions and concerns about the use, benefit, risk and the investment decision-making process for the selected technology. A review of the available literature shows that the decision-making processes related to investments in general are difficult and complex. As a result of this, many organizations that have invested in technology have not achieved the required benefits; this leads to unsuccessful investment decisions and loss of opportunities. This can occur when decision makers and planners do not pay enough attention to some critical factor that may affect the investment, or they may just not have planned sufficiently carefully for it. This research aims to examine and investigate the gaps and factors behind technology investment decisions, with a focus on several of the more important factors and elements that may have a huge impact on these decisions. These include investment justification techniques, technology selection, organizational readiness, technology alignment, and benefits realization. The unique aspect of this research is that these five elements have not previously been linked in research publications or reports, particularly within the petrochemical industry. Thus, the research focuses on these five elements to identify the critical factors and difficulties to support decision makers in order to achieve successful technology investment in the petrochemical industry. To address the research aims, the issues affecting investment decision-making within a number of the biggest petrochemical companies in Saudi Arabia were investigated.

Le processus de sélection de portefeuille peut être effectué en deux étapes: la première consiste à évaluer les actifs financiers et la deuxième à déterminer la combinaison d’actifs qui permettrai d‘allouer de façon optimale la richesse. La combinaison des actifs financiers retenue à la fin de ce processus se doit de répondre simultanément et de façon optimale aux différents objectifs de l‘investisseur. Le problème de sélection de portefeuille peut être considéré comme un processus de décision multicritère. Dans cette thèse, plusieurs critères ont été analysés et on a tenté de répondre à la question de combien et où investir ? On a proposé une nouvelle approche multicritère basée sur la méthode d‘enveloppement des données (DEA) et l‘approche de l‘efficacité croisée pour sélectionner un portefeuille d’actifs financier. La première méthodologie proposée consiste à incorporer la méthode d’efficacité croisée dans un espace Moyenne-Variance-Skewness-Kurtosis (MVSK). Le deuxième modèle combine la mesure de l'efficacité croisée par l'enveloppement de données vue comme solution d'un jeu avec la composante risque pour choisir un portefeuille. Finalement, on a proposé d’incorporer la mesure de l'efficacité croisée par l'enveloppement de données vue comme solution d'un jeu dans un modèle d’arbitrage entre profitabilité et efficacité afin de sélectionner un portefeuille. Globalement, ces méthodes ont permis la discrimination entre les actifs financiers et de leur donner un classement unique dans un premier temps, ensuite de sélectionner un portefeuille en prenant en considération les préférences du décideur. / The process of portfolio selection could be divided into two stages: the first one is the evaluation of financial assets and the second is to choose the best ones to construct portfolio. It can be considered as Multi-Criteria-Decision-Making (MCDM) process. It consists in selecting a combination of financial assets that can best meet the investors’ objective. In this dissertation, different criteria are analyzed and the question of where and how much money to allocate to each of the financial asset is processed. We propose a new multi-criteria analysis approach to portfolio selection based on Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) cross-efficiency model. The first methodology consists in nesting the DEA cross-efficiency model into the Mean-Variance-Skewness-Kurtosis (MVSK) space. The second model combines the DEA game cross-efficiency approach with risk component to select portfolio. Finally, we propose a model incorporating the DEA game cross-efficiency into Profitability-Efficiency. Overall, these methodologies provide more discrimination for financial assets by providing unique ranks in a first step and permit to select portfolio by underlying preferences of the decision-maker in a second step.