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LD2668 .T4 1966 A637 / Master of Science

Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2005. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The three East African countries of Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda have a long history of economic co-operation, which at one time amounted close to political integration. Their present co-operation arrangement is known as the East African Community (the new East African Community), but is one that remains susceptible to failure if conscious and purposeful steps are not timely adopted to facilitate their integration. A number of reasons have been attributed to the failure and eventual demise of the old East African Community. These reasons include, the unequal distribution of gains and costs amongst the partner states, perceptions and impressions on reaching conclusions about the distribution of those gains and costs, the heavy internal and external debt burdens that the three countries experienced in different degrees, differing political ideologies amongst the political leaderships of the three countries, unwillingness to cede government authority to the Community, and the absence of sufficient possibilities for cost reduction shifts in the industrial sector amongst the three countries. The above meant that there was little chance for potential economies of scale. While the recognition of the value of past experiences forms an important aspect of a future strategy for the Community, prevailing and anticipated circumstances are more relevant. This study project seeks to establish the chances for the success or failure of the new East African Community by means of an analysis of the historical passage of East African co-operation, in particular the former official arrangement of 1967-1977 and scrutiny of the system underlying the present arrangement. The differences and similarities of the two systems are then extrapolated and the likely effects that those differences and similarities will impart upon the new East African Community are investigated. Finally, the ways and means identified as a possible easing of the shortcomings are advanced as recommendations. One outstanding development in the existence of the new East African Community so far has been the pursuance to establish an East African Federation in the shortest possible timeframe. In the new East African Community's formative treaty the objective of achieving a political federation is declared to be the ultimate objective. It would appear that the concept of "shortest possible time" was partly interpreted by those mandated to explore the possibilities as relating to the timeframe during which the existing political leadership would still be functioning. The study has, however, concluded that the fast tracking of the political federation is one of the possible serious threats to the sustainability and longevity of the new East African Community. Likewise, membership of other regional integration arrangements by the partner states of the Community - without a concrete formally agreed common mechanism to deal with the ensuing conflicts of interest - is considered to be a weakness. The study recommends a number of preconditions necessary for the smooth transition to a political federation that would not compromise the positive prospects of the Community. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die drie Oos-Afrikalande Kenia, Tanzanië en Uganda het 'n lang geskiedenis van ekonomiese samewerking wat op 'n stadium feitlik op politieke integrasie neergekom het. Hulle huidige integrasiereëling staan as die Oos- Afrikagemeenskap (die Gemeenskap) bekend, maar dit bly vatbaar vir mislukking indien bewuste en doelgerigte stappe nie betyds gedoen word om hulle integrasie te bevorder nie. 'n Aantal redes is aangevoer vir die mislukking en uiteindelike verval van die ou Oos-Afrikagemeenskap. Hierdie redes sluit onder andere in die oneweredige verspreiding van winste en kostes tussen die vennootskapslande, persepsies en indrukke oor besluite rakende die verdeling van genoemde winste en kostes, die kwaai binne- en buitelandse skuldlaste wat die drie lande in wisselende mate ervaar het, verskillende politieke ideologieë tussen die politieke leierskappe van die drie lande, 'n onwilligheid om regeringsgesag na die Gemeenskap oor te dra en die afwesigheid van genoegsame moontlikhede vir kosteverminderingstappe in d ie nywerheidsektor tussen die drie lande. Die bovermelde het beteken dat daar min geleentheid vir potensiële groot ekonomieë was. Alhoewel die erkenning van die waarde van ervarings uit die verlede 'n belangrike aspek van 'n toekomstige strategie vir die Gemeenskap uitmaak, is heersende en verwagte omstandighede meer relevant. Hierdie studieprojek poog om by wyse van 'n analise van die historiese verloop van samewerking in Oos- Afrika en in die besonder van die vorige amptelike reëling tussen 1967 tot 1977 en 'n ondersoek van die stelsel wat die huidige reëling onderlê, vas te stel wat die kanse is op die sukses of mislukking van die nuwe Oos-Afrikagemeenskap. Die verskille en ooreenkomste tussen die twee stelsels word dan geëkstrapoleer en die verwagte gevolge wat daardie verskille en ooreenkomste op die nuwe Oos-Afrikagemeenskap gaan uitoefen, word ondersoek. Laastens word die middele wat geïdentifiseer is as 'n moontlike verligting van die tekortkominge, as aanbevelings voorgehou. Een van die opvallende ontwikkelings in die nuwe Oos-Afrikagemeenskap is die nastrewing van die doel om 'n Oos-Afrikafederasie binne die kortste moontlike tyd tot stand te bring. In die Gemeenskap se stigtingsooreenkoms is gekonstateer dat die uiteindelike doelwit die bereiking van 'n politieke federasie is. Dit wil voorkom asof die konsep "die kortste moontlike tyd" gedeeltelik só geïnterpreteer is dat dit na die tydsraamwerk verwys waartydens die huidige politieke leierskap steeds die leisels sou hou. Die studie het egter tot die gevolgtrekking gekom dat die vinnige pas vir die totstandkoming van die politieke federasie een van die moontlike ernstige bedreigings vir die volhoubaarheid en langdurige voortbestaan van die nuwe Oos-Afrikagemeenskap is. Op soortgelyke wyse word lidstate van die Gemeenskap se lidmaatskap van ander streeksreëlings - sonder die bestaan van 'n konkrete formeelooreengekome gesamentlike meganisme om aandag te skenk aan voortspruitende belangekonflikte - as 'n swakheid beskou. Die studie beveel 'n aantal voorwaardes aan wat noodsaaklik is vir die gladde oorgang na 'n politieke federasie wat nie die positiewe vooruitsigte van die Gemeenskap in die gedrang sal bring nie.

Thesis (MA)--Stellenbosch University, 2013. / Bibliography / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This case study on East Africa analyses the impact of changing power relations over the last decade on Egypt’s hydro-hegemony on the Nile River Basin. Covering one-tenth of Africa’s landmass and providing resources for the 340 million people and countless species, the Nile is exemplary of Africa’s geographic, cultural and ecological diversity, as well as its political complexity. Eleven riparian states lie in its basin area and compete for dwindling water resources as demand rises in a highly asymmetrical power relationship between upstream and downstream states. Egypt, although geographically disadvantaged due to its downstream position, has established hydro-hegemony by combining material capabilities, legal and institutional mechanisms, as well as knowledge production. Its relative wealth is contingent upon the supply of Nile water, as it makes up 95% of Egypt’s freshwater. Egypt has legally secured its claim through the 1959 Treaty on the Full Utilisation of the Nile Waters which divides the Nile water flow between Egypt and Sudan. Egypt further established consolidated control by using its downstream position in the World Bank to de facto veto upstream hydro-electric power projects throughout the 1990s. In contrast, the East African Community Partner States only started to lay claim to the water over the last decade due to its history of colonialism, proxy wars and political instability. In 2002, the EAC decided to manage the Lake Victoria Basin jointly. Paired with growing stability and economic growth in the region, this management has attracted Chinese investment in hydro-electric power projects, notably dams, giving East Africa financial independence from both the World Bank and Egypt to build hydro-infrastructure projects. East African states use the influx of Chinese investments to increase their respective defence budgets while Egypt’s military spending, as a share of GDP, has been decreasing over the last decade. Under the Nyerere Doctrine, East African states refuse to honour the 1959 Treaty and have asked for re-negotiation. The first step was taken in 2011, when six upstream states under EAC leadership signed the Cooperative Framework Agreement paving the way for renegotiation, in the face of Egypt’s explicit refusal. Domestic factors in Egypt, coupled with East Africa’s growing self-confidence, are slowly changing the power relations in the Nile basin. Using the London Water Research Group’s Hydro-Hegemony framework in a triangular diachronic single-case study research design, this study traces the processes of counter-hegemony and hydropolitical power shifts. Understanding these political processes is the first step towards the sustainable distribution of the Nile water resources on the basin level. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie gevallestudie oor Oos-Afrika ontleed die impak van veranderende magsverhoudinge op Egipte se beheer oor die loop van die Nylwater gedurende die laaste dekade. Die Nyl, wat vloei oor een tiende van die landmassa van Afrika en lewensmiddele verskaf aan die 340 miljoen mense en ontelbare spesies wat daar ´n bestaan voer, dien as voorbeeld vir Afrika se geografiese, kulturele en ekologiese diversiteit sowel as die politieke kompleksiteit daarvan. Elf oewerstate lê in die Nylopvanggebied en wedywer vir waterbronne wat afneem, terwyl die aanvraag styg in ‘n hoogs asimmetriese magsverhouding tussen die lande wat stroomop en stroomaf geleë is. Alhoewel Egipte geografies benadeel is deur stroomaf geleë te wees, het die land hidrohegemonie verkry deur middel van sy materiële vermoëns, wets- en institutêre meganismes, en kennisproduksie. Die relatiewe rykdom van Egipte is afhanklik van die beskikbaarheid van Nylwater, wat 95% van die land se varswater verskaf. Egipte het sy aanspraak daarop wetlik vasgelê deur middel van die 1959 Verdrag oor die Volle Gebruik van die Nylwater, wat die Nyl se vloei verdeel tussen Egipte en die Soedan. Gedurende die 1990s het die land sy beheer verder versterk deur sy stroomafposisie by die Wêreldbank te gebruik om hidroelktriesekragprojekte stroomop de facto te veto. As gevolg van ‘n geskiedenis van kolonialisme en politieke onrus, het die lidstate van die Oos-Afrikaanse Gemeenskap (OAG) egter eers gedurende die laaste dekade begin om die Nylwater te eis. In 2002 het die OAG besluit om die Victoriameer-opvanggebied gesamentlik te beheer. Hierdie beheer, saam met toenemende bestendigheid en ekonomiese groei in die gebied, het aanleiding gegee tot Chinese beleggings in hidroelektriesekragprojekte, veral damme, sodat Oos-Afrika finansiële onafhanklikheid verkry het van beide die Wêreldbank en Egipte om sy eie hidro-infrastuktuurprojekte te bou. Terwyl die Oos-Afrikaanse lande die invloei van Chinese beleggings gebruik om hulle onderskeie verdedigingsbegrotings te vergroot, het Egipte se militêre uitgawes afgeneem as ‘n deel van die BBP oor die laaste dekade. Die Oos-Afrikaanse lande beroep hulle op die Nyerere Dokrine deur te weier om die 1959 Verdrag na te kom, en het versoek dat dit heronderhandel word. Die eerste treë is in 2011, geneem toe ses stroomoplande onder die leierskap van die OAG die Koöperatiewe Raamwerk Verdrag onderteken het, wat die pad voorberei vir heronderhandeling ten spyte van Egipte se onomwonde weiering daartoe.