Text in Afrikaans / Suid-Afrika het sy diplomatieke bande met Taiwan verbreek en hegte diplomatieke bande met Sjina in 1998 aangeknoop. Hierdie hegte verhouding wat tussen Suid-Afrika en Sjina ontwikkel het, word dikwels deur politici, die media en vakbonde veroordeel as nadelig vir Suid-Afrika. Ten einde hierdie veroordelings te staaf, of te weerlê, is ‘n analise van die politieke, ekonomiese en militêre verhouding tussen Suid-Afrika en Sjina onderneem. Aangesien Suid-Afrika voor 1998 verhoudinge met Taiwan gehandhaaf het, kon die verhouding wat tans tussen Suid-Afrika en Sjina bestaan, vergelyk word met die vorige verhouding met Taiwan. Die verhandeling kon gevolglik tot ’n gevolgtrekking kom rakende die verhouding. / In 1998 South Africa broke off diplomatic ties with Taiwan when it established full relations with China. Since then, South Africa’s ties with China have been frequently criticised by politicians, the media and trade unions as disadvantageous to South Africa. To refute or confirm this perception, an analysis of the political, economic and military ties between South Africa and China has been undertaken. South Africa’s relations with Taiwan prior to 1998 are the basis for the comparison of South Africa’s relations with China. As a result, this dissertation is able to reach a conclusion regarding these ties. / Political Sciences / M.A. (International Politics)

An analysis of the current monetary policy framework in South Africa, which followed the exampie of a number of developed countries by implementing an inflation-targeting regime in 2000, is presented. The primary goal of the framework is to establish price stability, with financial stability a secondary objective. However, as has been evident in other countries, price stability does not guarantee financial stability. Movements in asset prices and the development of asset price bubbles have resulted in a number of episodes of financial instability, which negatively impacted on the growth and development of the countries involved. In addition, the majority of these episodes have occurred in periods of low and stable inflation. The dissertation analyses whether monetary policy would be more efficient if asset price movements were incorporated within the inflation-targeting regime. International experience indicates that early intervention of monetary policy can dampen the negative effects that result when an asset price bubble "bursts". However, if the monetary authorities act too early the effects on the economy can be just as disruptive. The literature is scrutinized to establish what the most effective form of monetary policy should be. The results are then transposed within the South African context to establish how the South African Reserve Bank can best ensure both price and financial stability.

This study examines the nature of the relationship which exists between mining sector production and development of the financial systems in South Africa. This is particularly important in that the mining sector is considered to be one of the major contributors to the country’s overall economic growth. South Africa is also considered to have a very well developed financial system, to the point where the dominance of one over the other is difficult to identify. Therefore offering insight into the nature of this relationship will assist policy makers in identifying the most effective policies in order to ensure that the developments within the financial systems impact appropriately on the mining sector, and ultimately on the economy. In addition to using the conventional proxies of financial system development, this study utilises the principal component analysis (PCA) to construct an index for the entire financial system. The multivariate cointegration approach as proposed by Johansen (1988) and Johansen and Juselius (1990) was then used to estimate the relationship between the development of the financial systems and the mining sector production for the period 1988-2008. The study reveals mixed results for different measures of financial system development. Those involving the banking system show that a negative relationship exists between total mining production and total credit extended to the private sector, while liquid liabilities has a positive relationship. Similarly, with the stock market system, mixed results are also obtained which reveal a negative relationship between total mining production and stock market capitalisation, while a positive relationship is found with secondary market turnover. Of all the financial system variables, only that of stock market capitalisation was found to be significant. The result with the financial development index reveals that a significant negative relationship exists between financial system development and total mining sector production. Results on the other variables controlled in the estimation show that positive and significant relationships exist between total mining production and both nominal exchange rate and political stability respectively. Increased mining production therefore takes place in periods of appreciating exchange rates, and similarly in the post-apartheid era. On the other hand, negative relationships were found for both trade openness and inflation control variables. The impulse response and variance decomposition analyses showed that total mining production explains the largest amount of shocks within itself. Overall, the study reveals that the mining sector might not have benefited much from the development in the South African financial system.

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) flows into South Africa have been very low for several decades, and this research examines the reason(s) why this has been the case since 1994. There is a common belief amongst economists that there is a positive relationship between the amount of FDI received and economic growth, thus the desire to attract greater FDI inflows. A literature review was conducted to establish the determinants of FDI globally and then data were collected and assessed to test which causes are most important. The performance of developing nations in attracting FDI was first compared with that of the developed nations. Thereafter, a regional breakdown of FDI flows was presented, with a particular focus on the Southern African region. FDI inflows to South Africa since 1994 were compared against the identified determinants of FDI, as well as with FDI inflows into two other major mining economies, Chile and Botswana. The friendliness of the government towards business was identified as a significant determinant of FDI inflows and the importance of this factor in explaining FDI inflows into environment in South Africa was looked at in more depth. It was found that many investors perceive the South African government as hostile towards business and as corrupt and/or inefficient. The empirical results show that this negative perception helps explain the FDI inflows attracted by South Africa since 1994. Therefore, increased friendliness to business by the government should increase future inward FDI flows into South Africa.

This thesis is about the relationship between local government, grassroots organisations and the organisation of power resulting from the interaction of the two. Exploring this relationship this thesis investigates whether the actions of grassroots movements can bring local government in line with their developmental role as accorded to them by the Constitution. The assumption embedded in this question is that the current balance of power at the local level exists outside of the service of the historically disadvantaged. Following on from that, the thesis explores, through different modes of analysis, theoretical and historical, the policy and constitutional framework for local government, and then it unravels the context set by the political economy of South Africa. The aim is to make a significant attempt at understanding the possible implications of the interventions grassroots movements make in the public space. The thesis does this also by looking at the strengths and weaknesses of the strategies of the UDF to makes an assessment of the possible endurance of post-apartheid grassroots movements. Since civil society ‘suffers’ from nationalist politics, with its own corporatist institutions, the thesis searches deep within or arguably 'outside of civil society', subjecting AbM and UPM to academic critique, to see how movements embedded among the poor and carrying the political instrument of anger and marginalisation, can dislodge the power of capital. More importantly, the thesis situates the post-apartheid moment within postcolonial politics; navigating through the legacy of Colonialism of a Special Type (CSP), the thesis explores the limits and opportunities at the disposal of grassroots movements. From a different perspective, the thesis is an examination of the organisation and movement of power and the spaces within which power and ideas are contested. Drawing on the political and economic engagements, dubbed the Dar Es Salaam debates, in the 1970’s and 1980’s spurred on by Issa Shivji, the late Prof Dani Wadada Nabudere and Mahmood Mandani, the conclusions of this thesis develops these engagements, essentially making a case for the continued centrality of the post-apartheid state. However, the thesis also asserts the indubitable role that both grassroots movements and civil society need to play, not necessarily in the democratisation of the state, though that goes without saying, but in taking the post-colonial state on its own terms. Consequently, the thesis puts forward the idea that issue-based mobilisation does exactly this, and in the manner that acknowledges the state’s centrality and makes paramount the self-organisation (popular assemblies) of ordinary people in public affairs. The thesis categorically concludes that the centrality of the post-apartheid state and its progressive outlook (constitutional values) is contingent on organs of popular assemblies which need to take the state on its (progressive) terms.

Monetary policy in South African is the primary means by which the authorities can influence activity in the overall economy. The South African Reserve Bank accommodates banks through repo transactions for which they charge the repo rate. The most important market in the transmission of the repo rate to the rest of the economy is the interbank market. As such, a detailed discussion of this market is given. In September 200 I the monetary authorities made certain adjustments to the repo system of accommodation, which included changing the repo rate from a floating rate to a fixed rate that would be administratively determined by the MPC. This was done to address certain weaknesses in the floating rate system. This thesis examines and compares the period before and after the adjustments to the repo system, with the aim of determining whether or not the monetary authorities achieved the goals intended from making this change. The repo rate, prime interbank rate, 3-month NCO rate and the prime lending rate are analysed using the Engle-Granger two variable approach and an ECM model to test for causality. It was found that the monetary authorities did not achieve their intended goals as the relationship between the repo rate and the interbank rate was more significant in the first period. Furthermore, the direction of causality the authorities hoped to achieve by implementing the changes were in fact already in place. As such the adjustments to the system changed the transmission mechanism from the one desired by the authorities to one that was not intended. The conclusions reached by this study show that, in terms of the objectives of the monetary authorities, the previous repo system functioned better. / KMBT_363 / Adobe Acrobat 9.54 Paper Capture Plug-in

This study assessed the effects of currency volatility on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange. An evaluation of literature on exchange rate volatility and stock markets was conducted resulting into specification of an empirical model.The Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedascity (1.1) (GARCH) model was used in establishing the relationship between exchange rate volatility and stock market performance. The study employed monthly South African data for the period 2000 – 2010. The data frequency selected ensured an adequate number of observations. A very weak relationship between currency volatility and the stock market was confirmed. The research finding is supported by previous studies. Prime overdraft rate and total mining production were found to have a negative impact on Market capitalisation. Surprisingly, US interest rates were found to have a positive impact on Market capitalisation. This study recommended that, since the South African stock market is not really exposed to the negative effects of currency volatility, government can use exchange rate as a policy tool to attract foreign portfolio investment. The weak relationship between currency volatility and the stock market suggests that the JSE can be marketed as a safe market for foreign investors. However, investors, bankers and portfolio managers still need to be vigilant in regard to the spillovers from the foreign exchange rate into the stock market. Although there is a weak relationship between rand volatility and the stock market in South Africa, this does not necessarily mean that investors and portfolio managers need not monitor the developments between these two variables.

The purpose of the research is to assess the financial viability of selected urban and rural municipalities in the Eastern Cape. Municipalities that are not financially viable and sustainable will always struggle to deliver basic services to communities. Without sound financial management systems, municipalities will be forced to discontinue their operations. Municipalities, particularly small and rural ones, are not self-sufficient and often rely on grants and transfers to satisfy their immediate short-term goal of providing basic services to satisfy the needs of their communities. Therefore, finance is regarded as an overriding and decisive factor for determining the viability of municipalities. The study seeks to investigate the financial viability of selected urban and rural municipalities in the Eastern Cape. Its key research questions are: Are municipalities able to provide sufficient funds to provide a range of services at an acceptable service level? To what extent do municipalities rely on external funding? Do municipalities have revenue collection capacity and revenue policies? The study asserts that most municipalities lack the required financial resources. They depend mainly on transfers from Provincial Government and equitable share and conditional grants from National Government. Section 152 (1) of the Constitution of the Republic of South Africa, Act 8 of 1996, states, amongst other things, that Local Government should ensure the provision of services to communities in a sustainable manner. The constitution further states that a municipality must strive, within its financial and administrative capacity, to achieve its objectives. The Municipal Finance Management Act, Act 56 of 2003, creates a framework for municipalities to borrow money and determine the conditions for short- and long-term borrowing. The Act assigns clear roles and responsibilities to the various role players involved in local government financial management. According to the Act, an annual budget for a municipality may only be funded from realistically anticipated revenues to be collected. As revenue projections in the budget must be realistic, the Municipal Property Rates Act, Act 6 of 2004, facilitates the collection of revenue in municipalities and establishes a uniform property rating system across South Africa. Property tax is the biggest element of local government tax revenue and is central to municipal finance. The Municipal Systems Act, Act 32 of 2000, amongst its objectives, provides for the manner in which municipal powers and functions are exercised as well as establishes a simple framework for the core processes of planning, performance management and resource mobilisation. The Act also provides a framework for public administration and human resource development. Finally, it also empowers the poor and ensures that municipalities put in place service tariffs and credit control policies that take their needs into account. The research contends that, whilst there is legislation and structures to assist and direct municipalities, it has been established that municipalities do not properly collect rates and taxes due to them to augment their revenue. The study has shown nevertheless that metropolitan municipalities have the capacity to collect revenue for municipal services. This is confirmed by their collection rate which ranges between 94 % and 97 %. There is also the culture of non-payment by communities for services rendered by the municipalities. Rural municipalities are exempted from property tax, while other rural municipalities who have an urban component, have to collect. There is also the question of unemployment and poverty. Consequently, municipalities are not self-sufficient and rely on grants and equitable share to survive. As a result of this lack of self-sufficiency, it is difficult to implement service delivery and also difficult to attract skilled personnel. The study has investigated why some municipalities fail to collect revenue and depend on national grants. The study employed both qualitative and quantitative methods. The findings of the quantitative paradigm have been presented in the form of graphs and charts. The major findings include: All municipalities have limited borrowing capacity; have not exceeded their budgets in terms of their spending; small municipalities have households as their main contributor of revenue collected; metropolitan municipalities get the big slice of their revenue from business; small and rural municipalities rely on grants and transfers and are therefore not financially viable; metropolitan municipalities are, to a great extent, financially viable but lack skills and capacity to utilize their resources for effective service delivery; and all municipalities under-spend their budgets. The study, after elaborating on the findings, makes recommendations on how municipalities should become financially viable.

This study examined the impact of real exchange rates on economic growth in South Africa. The study used quarterly time series data for the period of 1994 to 2010. The Johansen cointegration and vector error correction model was used to determine the impact of real exchange on economic growth in South Africa. The explanatory variables in this study were real exchange rates, real interest rates, money supply, trade openness and gross fixed capital formation. Results from this study revealed that real exchange rates, gross fixed capital formation and real interest rates have a positive long run impact on economic growth, while money supply and trade openness have a negative long run impact on economic growth in South Africa. From the regression results, it was noted that undervaluation of the currency significantly hampers growth in the long run, whilst it significantly enhances economic growth in the short run. As such, the policy of depreciating the exchange rates to achieve higher growth rates is only effective in the short run and is not sustainable in the long run. Based on the findings of this study, the researcher recommended that misalignment (overvaluation and undervaluation) of the currency should be avoided at all costs. In addition, the results of the study showed that interest rates also have a significant impact on growth and since interest rates have a bearing on the exchange rate, it was recommended that the current monetary policy in South Africa should be maintained.

MAIR / Department of Development Studies / See the attached abstract below