No / Passenger rail overcrowding is fast becoming a problem in major cities worldwide. This problem therefore calls for efficient, cheap and prompt solutions and policies, which would in turn require accurate modelling tools to effectively forecast the impact of transit demand management policies. To do this, we developed an agent-based model of a particular passenger rail system using an activity based simulation approach to predict the impact of public transport demand management pricing strategies. Our agent population was created using a customer/passenger mobility survey dataset. We modelled the temporal flexibility of passengers, based on patterns observed in the departure and arrival behavior of real travelers. Our model was validated using real life passenger count data from the passenger rail transit company, after which we evaluated the use of peak demand management instruments such as ticketing fares strategies, to influence peak demand of a passenger rail transport system. Our results suggest that agent-based simulation is effective in predicting passenger behavior for a transportation system, and can be used in predicting the impact of demand management policies.

As buildings evolve towards the envisioned smart building paradigm, smart buildings' cyber-security issues and physical security issues are mingling. Although research studies have been conducted to detect and prevent physical (or cyber) intrusions to smart building systems(SBS), it is still unknown (1) how one type of intrusion facilitates the other, and (2) how such synergic attacks compromise the security protection of whole systems. To investigate both research questions, the author proposes a graph-based testbed to simulate cyber-physical attacks on smart buildings. The testbed models both cyber and physical accesses of a smart building in an integrated graph, and simulates diverse cyber-physical attacks to assess their synergic impacts on the building and its systems. In this thesis, the author presents the testbed design and the developed prototype, SHSIM. An experiment is conducted to simulate attacks on multiple smart home designs and to demonstrate the functions and feasibility of the proposed simulation system. / Master of Science / A smart home/building is a residence containing multiple connected devices which enable remote monitoring, automation, and management of appliances and systems, such as lighting, heating, entertainment, etc. Since the early 2000s, this concept of a smart home has becomequite popular due to rapid technological improvement. However, it brings with it a lot of security issues. Typically, security issues related to smart homes can be classified into two types - (1) cybersecurity and (2) physical security. The cyberattack involves hacking into a network to gain remote access to a system. The physical attack deals with unauthorized access to spaces within a building by damaging or tampering with access control. So far the two kinds of attacks on smart homes have been studied independently. However, it is still unknown (1) how one type of attack facilitates the other, and (2) how the combination of two kinds of attacks compromises the security of the whole smart home system. Thus, to investigate both research questions, we propose a graph-based approach to simulate cyber-physical attacks on smart homes/buildings. During the process, we model the smart home layout into an integrated graph and apply various cyber-physical attacks to assess the security of the smart building. In this thesis, I present the design and implementation of our tool, SHSIM. Using SHSIM we perform various experiments to mimic attacks on multiple smart home designs. Our experiments suggest that some current smart home designs are vulnerable to cyber-physical attacks

This dissertation investigates the evacuees' behavior under hurricane evacuation conditions and develops an agent-based travel demand model system for hurricane evacuation simulation using these behavioral findings. The dissertation econometrically models several important evacuation decisions including evacuate-stay, accommodation type choice, evacuation destination choice, evacuation mode choice, departure time choice, and vehicle usage choice. In addition, it explicitly considers the pre-evacuation preparation activities using activity-based approach. The models are then integrated into a two-module agent-based travel demand model system. The dissertation first develops the evacuate-stay choice model using the random-coefficient binary logit specification. It uses heterogeneous mean of the random parameter across households to capture shadow evacuation. It is found that the likelihood of evacuation for households that do not receive any evacuation notice decreases as their distance to coast increase on average. The distance sensitivity factor, or DSF, is introduced to construct the different scenarios of geographical extent of shadow evacuation. The dissertation then conducts statistical analysis of the vehicle usage choice. It identifies the contributing factors to households' choice of the number of vehicles used for evacuation and develop predictive models of this choice that explicitly consider the constraint imposed by the number of vehicles owned by the household. This constraint is not accommodated by ordered response models. Data comes from a post-storm survey for Hurricane Ivan. The two models developed are variants of the regular Poisson regression model: the Poisson model with exposure and right-censored Poisson regression. The right-censored Poisson model is preferred due to its inherent capabilities, better fit to the data, and superior predictive power. The multivariable model and individual variable analyses are used to investigate seven hypotheses. Households traveling longer distances or evacuating later are more likely to use fewer vehicles. Households with prior hurricane experience, greater numbers of household members between 18 and 80, and pet owners are more likely to use a greater number of vehicles. Income and distance from the coast are insignificant in the multivariable models, although their individual effects have statistically significant linear relationship. However, the Poisson based models are non-linear. The method for using the right-censored Poisson model for producing the desired share of vehicle usage is also provided for the purpose of generating individual predictions for simulation. The dissertation then presents a descriptive analysis of and econometric models for households' pre-evacuation activities based on behavioral intention data collected for Miami Beach, Florida. The descriptive analysis shows that shopping - particularly food, gasoline, medicine, and cash withdrawal - accounts for the majority of preparation activities, highlighting the importance of maintaining a supply of these items. More than 90% of the tours are conducted by driving, emphasizing the need to incorporate pre-evacuation activity travel into simulation studies. Households perform their preparation activities early in a temporally concentrated manner and generally make the tours during daylight. Households with college graduates, larger households, and households who drive their own vehicles are more likely to engage in activities that require travel. The number of household members older than 64 has a negative impact upon engaging in out-of-home activities. An action day choice model for the first tour suggests that households are more likely to buy medicine early but are more likely to pick up friends/relatives late. Households evacuating late are more likely to conduct their activities late. Households with multiple tours tend to make their first tour early. About 10% of households chain their single activity chains with their ultimate evacuation trips. The outcomes of this paper can be used in demand generation for traffic simulations. The dissertation finally uses the behavioral findings and develops an agent-based travel demand model system for hurricane evacuation simulation, which is capable of generating the comprehensive household activity-travel plans. The system implements econometric and statistical models that represent travel and decision-making behavior throughout the evacuation process. The system considers six typical evacuation decisions: evacuate-stay, accommodation type choice, evacuation destination choice, mode choice, vehicle usage choice and departure time choice. It explicitly captures the shadow evacuation population. In addition, the model system captures the pre-evacuation preparation activities using an activity-based approach. A demonstration study that predicts activity-travel patterns using model parameters estimated for the Miami-Dade area is discussed. The simulation results clearly indicate the model system produced the distribution of choice patterns that is consistent with sample observations and existing literature. The model system also identifies the proportion of the shadow evacuation population and their geographical extent. About 23% of the population outside the designated evacuation zone would evacuate. The shadow evacuation demand is mainly located within 3.1 miles (5 km) of the coastline. The output demand of the model system works with agent-based traffic simulation tools and conventional trip-based simulation tools. The agent-based travel demand model system is capable of generating activity plans that works with agent-based traffic simulation tools and conventional trip-based simulation tools. It will facilitate the hurricane evacuation management. / Ph. D.

Human behavior plays an important role in infectious disease epidemics. The choice of preventive actions taken by individuals can completely change the epidemic outcome. Computational epidemiologists usually employ large-scale agent-based simulations of human populations to study disease outbreaks and assess intervention strategies. Such simulations rarely take into account the decision-making process of human beings when it comes to preventive behaviors. Absence of realistic agent behavior can undermine the reliability of insights generated by such simulations and might make them ill-suited for informing public health policies. In this thesis, we address this problem by developing a methodology to create and calibrate an agent decision-making model for a large multi-agent simulation, in a data driven way. Our method optimizes a cost vector associated with the various behaviors to match the behavior distributions observed in a detailed survey of human behaviors during influenza outbreaks. Our approach is a data-driven way of incorporating decision making for agents in large-scale epidemic simulations. / Master of Science / In the real world, individuals can decide to adopt certain behaviors that reduce their chances of contracting a disease. For example, using hand sanitizers can reduce an individual‘s chances of getting infected by influenza. These behavioral decisions, when taken by many individuals in the population, can completely change the course of the disease. Such behavioral decision-making is generally not considered during in-silico simulations of infectious diseases. In this thesis, we address this problem by developing a methodology to create and calibrate a decision making model that can be used by agents (i.e., synthetic representations of humans in simulations) in a data driven way. Our method also finds a cost associated with such behaviors and matches the distribution of behavior observed in the real world with that observed in a survey. Our approach is a data-driven way of incorporating decision making for agents in large-scale epidemic simulations.

The deployment of Automated Vehicles (AV) is starting to become widespread throughout transportation, resulting in the recognition and awareness by legislative leaders of the potential impact on transportation operations. To assist transportation operators in making the needed preparations for these vehicles, an in-depth study regarding the impact of AV and Connected Automated Vehicles (CAV) is needed. In this research, the impact of AV and CAV on the highway setting is studied. This study addresses car-following models that are currently used for simulating AV and CAV. Diverse car-following models, such as the Intelligent Driver Model (IDM), the IDM with traffic adaptive driving Strategy (SIDM), the Improved IDM (IIDM), the IIDM with Constant-Acceleration Heuristic (CAH), and the MIcroscopic model for Simulation of Intelligent Cruise control (MIXIC) were examined with the state-of-the-art vehicle trajectory data. The Highway Drone dataset (HighD) were analyzed through the implementation of genetic algorithm to gain more insight about the trajectories of these vehicles. In 2020, there is no commercially available gully automated vehicle available to the public, although many companies are conducting in field testing. This research generated AV trajectories based on the actual vehicle trajectories from the High-D dataset and adjusts those trajectories to account for ideal AV operations. The analysis from the fitted trajectory data shows that the calibrated IIDM with CAH provides a best fit on AV behavior. Next, the AV and CAV were modeled in microscopic perspective to show the impact of these vehicles on a corridor. The traffic simulation software, VISSIM, modified by implementing an external driver model to govern the interactions between Legacy Vehicles (LV), AV, and CAV on a basic and merging highway segment as well as a model of the Interstate 95 corridor south of Richmond, Virginia. From the analysis, this research revealed that the AV and CAV could increase highway capacity significantly. Even with a small portion of AV or CAV, the roadway capacity increased. On I-95, CAV performed better than AV because of Cooperative Adaptive Cruise Control (CACC) and platooning due to CAV's ability to coordinate movement through communication; however, in weaving segments, CAV underperformed AV. This result indicates that the CAV algorithms would need to be flexible in order to maintain flow in areas with weaving sections. Lastly, diverse operational conditions, such as different heavy vehicle market penetration and different aggressiveness were examined to support traffic operators transition to the introduction of AV and CAV. Based on the analysis, the study concludes that the different aggressiveness could mitigate congestion in all cases if the proper aggressiveness level is selected considering the current traffic condition. Overall, the dissertation provides guidance to researchers, traffic operators, and lawmakers to model, simulate, and evaluate AV and CAV on highways. / Doctor of Philosophy / The deployment of Automated Vehicles (AV) is starting to become widespread throughout transportation, resulting in the recognition and awareness by legislative leaders of the potential impact on transportation operations. To assist transportation operators in making the needed preparations for these vehicles, an in-depth study regarding the impact of AV and Connected Automated Vehicles (CAV) is needed. In this research, the impact of AV and CAV on the highway setting is studied. This study addresses car-following models that are currently used for simulating AV and CAV. Diverse car-following models, such as the Intelligent Driver Model (IDM), the IDM with traffic adaptive driving Strategy (SIDM), the Improved IDM (IIDM), the IIDM with Constant-Acceleration Heuristic (CAH), and the MIcroscopic model for Simulation of Intelligent Cruise control (MIXIC) were examined with the state-of-the-art vehicle trajectory data. The Highway Drone dataset (HighD) were analyzed through the implementation of genetic algorithm to gain more insight about the trajectories of these vehicles. In 2020, there is no commercially available gully automated vehicle available to the public, although many companies are conducting in field testing. This research generated AV trajectories based on the actual vehicle trajectories from the High-D dataset and adjusts those trajectories to account for ideal AV operations. The analysis from the fitted trajectory data shows that the calibrated IIDM with CAH provides a best fit on AV behavior. Next, the AV and CAV were modeled in microscopic perspective to show the impact of these vehicles on a corridor. The traffic simulation software, VISSIM, modified by implementing an external driver model to govern the interactions between Legacy Vehicles (LV), AV, and CAV on a basic and merging highway segment as well as a model of the Interstate 95 corridor south of Richmond, Virginia. From the analysis, this research revealed that the AV and CAV could increase highway capacity significantly. Even with a small portion of AV or CAV, the roadway capacity increased. On I-95, CAV performed better than AV because of Cooperative Adaptive Cruise Control (CACC) and platooning due to CAV's ability to coordinate movement through communication; however, in weaving segments, CAV underperformed AV. This result indicates that the CAV algorithms would need to be flexible in order to maintain flow in areas with weaving sections. Lastly, diverse operational conditions, such as different heavy vehicle market penetration and different aggressiveness were examined to support traffic operators transition to the introduction of AV and CAV. Based on the analysis, the study concludes that the different aggressiveness could mitigate congestion in all cases if the proper aggressiveness level is selected considering the current traffic condition. Overall, the dissertation provides guidance to researchers, traffic operators, and lawmakers to model, simulate, and evaluate AV and CAV on highways.

As organizations utilize less hierarchical forms of leadership, the study of how leadership emerges within teams continues to grow in importance. Despite many theoretical perspectives used to study leadership emergence, little is understood about the actual process by which a collective structure emerges. In the current work, I address two of the primary limitations within this literature: imprecise theoretical perspectives and methodological challenges in studying emergence. Specifically, although there are many conceptual works that describe the leadership emergence process, these descriptions do not have enough precision to be able to design a model with formal rules, a necessary requirement for studying emergence. Additionally, studying leadership emergence requires the study of newly formed teams frequently over time, which is challenging to accomplish using existing methods. To address the two above limitations, in the current work, I translate two dominant process-oriented perspectives of leadership emergence (social interactionist and social cognitive) into formal theories that include a series of testable hypotheses. In doing so, these theories outline the essential elements and process mechanisms of each theoretical perspective. Next, I use these theories to design two agent-based models to simulate the process by which leadership emerges within teams, under each perspective. Using the software NetLogo, I simulate 500 newly formed teams over the initial period of 500 dyadic interactions (i.e., hours). Finally, after simulating these models, I use the resulting data to test the predictions from each theoretical perspective. In addition to testing the hypotheses from each model, I also utilize agent-based modeling to systematically test the relative importance of the unique individual-level elements and process mechanisms from each model. From this entire process, I generate results about (1) how well the agent-based models represent the respective perspectives, and (2) the relative influence each perspective's unique elements and mechanisms have on team outcomes. Overall, results generally supported the core concepts from each perspective, but also identified areas where each perspective needs to revisit for theory on leadership emergence to advance. Specifically, the results illustrated that certain individual-level elements were most influential for leadership emergence. For the social interactionist perspective, it was the comparison between implicit leadership theories and self-prototypical leadership characteristics. For the social cognitive perspective, it was leader self-schemas. Additionally, results indicated that future work may need to revisit the conceptualization of both leadership structure schemas, as well as the dynamic process of weighting implicit leadership theories. Finally, predictions about the rate of leadership emergence over time within the social cognitive perspective were the only predictions that were not supported. From these results, I present multiple themes as a conceptual road map for the advancement of leadership emergence theory. I argue that the lack of support regarding leadership emergence trajectories presents opportunities for a reconceptualization of emergence at the event level, as well as new modeling procedures to capture emergence as it occurs. I also present future study ideas that can directly test the competing assumptions from each perspective. In total, I argue that this work advances the study of leadership emergence by adopting a method that helped integrate two dominant perspectives of leadership emergence, possibly laying the groundwork for the development of a combined formal theory. / Doctor of Philosophy / The purpose of this dissertation was to understand how specific individuals in teams become viewed as a leader, when there is no formal hierarchy. This represents the process of leadership emergence. Most research studying leadership in teams focuses on who becomes a leader. As a result, little is known about the exact process by which certain individuals emerge as a leader. Fortunately, there are theories that represent potential ideas for how this process occurs. However, these theories are difficult to test, as this type of research requires the study of newly formed teams over time, a great methodological challenge. In my dissertation, I attempt to address this challenge by simulating newly formed teams over time using a form of computer simulation called Agent-Based Modeling (ABM). In using ABM, I aimed to learn how two theoretical perspectives both compare and contrast to one another, in how they both explain the process of leadership emergence. In my primary analysis, I simulated 500 teams, working together over a period of hours. After using this data to test a series of predictions, I found that most predictions were supported across each theoretical perspective. This provided evidence that the simulations represented each theoretical perspective. However, the results also showed that certain parts of each theoretical perspective need more research. In recognizing the weaknesses in each perspective in modeling leadership emergence, I introduce multiple opportunities for theoretical integration, in that ideas from both models can be combined into one. Therefore, the findings from this research lay the groundwork for the development of one single theory for how leadership emerges in groups. Ultimately, this could help understand how leadership in teams occurs, which can lead to new interventions to improve team leadership and performance.

Modern robotics demonstrates the reality of near sci-fi solutions regularly. Swarms of interconnected robotic agents have been proven to have benefits in scalability, robustness, and efficiency. In communication restricted environments, such teams of robots are often required to support their own navigation, planning, and decision making processes, through use of onboard processors and collaboration. Example scenarios that exhibit restriction include unmanned underwater surveys and robots operating in indoor or remote environments without cloud connectivity. We begin this thesis by discussing multi-agent state estimation and it's observability properties, specifically for the case of an agent-to-agent range measurement system. For this case, inspired by navigation requirements underwater, we derive several conditions under which the system's state is guaranteed to be locally weakly observable. Ensuring a state is observable is necessary to maintain an estimate of it via filters, thus observability is required to support higher level navigation and planning. We conclude this section by creating an observability-based planner to control a subset of the agents' inputs. For the next contribution, we discuss scalability for coverage maximizing path planners. Typically planning for many individual robots incurs significant computational complexity which increases exponentially with the number of agents, this is often exacerbated when the objective function is collaborative as in coverage optimization. To maintain feasibility while planning for a large team of robots, we call upon a powerful relation from combinatorics which utilizes the greedy selection algorithm and a matroid condition to create an efficient planner that maintains a fixed performance ratio when compared to the optimal path. We then introduce a motivating example of autonomously assisted search and rescues using multiple aerial agents, and derive planners and models to suit the application. The framework begins by estimating the likely locations of a lost person through a Monte Carlo simulation, yielding a heatmap covering the area of interest. The heatmap is then used in combination with parametrized agent trajectories and a machine learning optimization algorithm to maximize the search efficiency. The search and rescues use case provides an excellent computational testbed for the final portion of the work. We close by discussing a computation architecture to support multi-agent system autonomy. Modern robotic autonomy results, especially computer vision and machine learning algorithms, often require large amounts of processing to yield quality results. With general purpose computing devices reaching a progression barrier, one that is not expected to be solved in the near term, increasingly devices must be designed with their end purposes in mind. To better support autonomy in multi-agent systems, we propose to use a distributed cluster of embedded processors which allows the sharing of computation and storage resources among the component members with minimal communication overhead. Our proposed architecture is composed of mature softwares already well-known in the robotics community, Kubernetes and the robot operating system, allowing ease of use and interoperability with existing algorithms. / Doctor of Philosophy / The traditional approach of robotics typically uses a single large platform capable of accomplishing all tasks assigned to it. However, it has been discovered that deploying multiple smaller platforms, each with their own processor and specific expertise, can have massive performance benefits compared to previous approaches. This development has been driven largely by readily available computing and mobility hardware. Termed as multi-agent systems, they can excel in areas that benefit from multiple perspectives, simultaneous task execution, and redundancy. In addition, planning algorithms developed for previous approaches often can map well onto multi-agent systems, provided there is adequate computational support. In cases where network or cloud connectivity is limited, teams of agents must use their own processors and sensors to make decisions and communicate. However, often an individual agent's computing hardware is limited in mass or size, thus limiting it's processing capabilities. In this work we will first discuss several multi-agent system algorithms, starting with estimation and navigation and ending with area search. We then conclude the work by proposing a novel architecture designed to distribute the computation load across the team in a highly scalable way.

In this thesis we present model of the human work process on projects using multi-agent model. Within the project management plan is carried out comparisons with the fact not only in the context of subsequent checks, but also in the course of the project. One of the most item is cost of human resources. To increase efficiency and control over the actual cost to introducing a range of organizations link the accounting system to a system of reporting work. Such a system registry of the work is not only complex, but also demanding in terms of managing the time gap between the creation of estimates and their own work. In general, there may be several variants of complications such as delay work on the project because of inaccurate estimates of job performance and therefore insufficient funds in the accounts sections and stages of the project. The aim of this work is to find the characteristics of such projects for which this system work. In the first part we are addressed basic theoretical assumptions for modeling work in the field of project management and multi-agent modeling. Next part relates to the creation of multi-agent model, including detailed characteristics and verification. At the end of this research are described a several experiments with the model and analysis results.

Approved for public release, distribution is unlimited / Recent insurgent tactics during Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF) have demonstrated that coalition logistical convoys are vulnerable targets. This thesis examines the tactics, techniques and procedures (TTPs) used in convoy operations in an attempt to identify the critical factors that lead to mission success. A ground convoy operation scenario is created in the agentbased model (ABM) Map Aware Non-uniform Automata (MANA). The scenario models a generic logistical convoy consisting of security vehicles, logistical vehicles, an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and an enemy ambushing force. The convoy travels along a main supply route (MSR) where it is ambushed by a small insurgent force. We use military experience, judgment and exploratory simulation runs to identify 11 critical factors within the created scenario. The data farming process and Latin Hypercube (LHC) experimental design technique are used to thoroughly examine the 11 factors. Using the 11 factors 516 design points are created and data farmed over to produce 25,800 observations. Additive multiple linear regression is used to fit a model to the 25,800 observations. From the created scenario it is concluded that: convoy mission success may be determined by only a few factors; the actions of logistical vehicles are more critical than those of security vehicles; UAVs provide a statistically significant advantage; and ABMs coupled with LHCs and data farming are valuable tools for understanding complex problems. / Captain, United States Marine Corps

Many real-world decision processes require solving optimization problems which may involve different types of constraints such as inequality and equality constraints. The hurdles in solving these Constrained Optimization Problems (COPs) arise from the challenge of searching a huge variable space in order to locate feasible points with acceptable solution quality. Over the last decades Evolutionary Algorithms (EAs) have brought a tremendous advancement in the area of computer science and optimization with their ability to solve various problems. However, EAs have inherent difficulty in dealing with constraints when solving COPs. This thesis presents a new Agent-based Memetic Algorithm (AMA) for solving COPs, where the agents have the ability to independently select a suitable Life Span Learning Process (LSLP) from a set of LSLPs. Each agent represents a candidate solution of the optimization problem and tries to improve its solution through cooperation with other agents. Evolutionary operators consist of only crossover and one of the self-adaptively selected LSLPs. The performance of the proposed algorithm is tested on benchmark problems, and the experimental results show convincing performance. The quality of individuals in the initial population influences the performance of evolutionary algorithms, especially when the feasible region of the constrained optimization problems is very tiny in comparison to the entire search space. This thesis proposes a method that improves the quality of randomly generated initial solutions by sacrificing very little in diversity of the population. The proposed Search Space Reduction Technique (SSRT) is tested using five different existing EAs, including AMA, by solving a number of state-of-the-art test problems and a real world case problem. The experimental results show SSRT improves the solution quality, and speeds up the performance of the algorithms. The handling of equality constraints has long been a difficult issue for evolutionary optimization methods, although several methods are available in the literature for handling functional constraints. In any optimization problems with equality constraints, to satisfy the condition of feasibility and optimality the solution points must lie on each and every equality constraint. This reduces the size of the feasible space and makes it difficult for EAs to locate feasible and optimal solutions. A new Equality Constraint Handling Technique (ECHT) is presented in this thesis, to enhance the performance of AMA in solving constrained optimization problems with equality constraints. The basic concept is to reach a point on the equality constraint from its current position by the selected individual solution and then explore on the constraint landscape. The technique is used as an agent learning process in AMA. The experimental results confirm the improved performance of the proposed algorithm. This thesis also proposes a Modified Genetic Algorithm (MGA) for solving COPs with equality constraints. After achieving inspiring performance in AMA when dealing with equality constraints, the new technique is used in the design of MGA. The experimental results show that the proposed algorithm overcomes the limitations of GA in solving COPs with equality constraints, and provides good quality solutions.