This study investigated relationships of age, gender, and supervisor level with job satisfaction, organizational commitment, stress perception, and turnover intention. The demographics were hypothesized to moderate the stress-satisfaction and commitment-turnover relationships. Hypotheses were tested using both parametric and non-parametric bootstrap methods. Subjects were taken from a national survey of 2,663 public sector IT workers. Missing data were imputed using NORM software. Ordinary least squares (OLS) regression indicated a significant direct effect from all main variables and covariates, except for age on turnover intent. No mediating effects were found. Age-Commitment was the only significant higher order modifier relationship, although Gender-Commitment explained substantial variance. LMG statistic results enabled the predictors to be rank ordered with confidence intervals. Best subset bootstrap regression explored all possible predictor orders to confirm which model explained the most variance. The original model and predictor sequence were confirmed. The bootstrap AIC statistic provided a model which maximized explained variance while optimizing parsimony. Since only age had a mediating effect, Hypotheses 1 and 2 were not supported. All other hypotheses were partially confirmed.

In this paper, we examine the feasibility of extending the Akaike information criterion (AIC) for deterministic systems as a potential model selection criteria for stochastic models. We discuss the implementation method for three different classes of stochastic models: continuous time Markov chains (CTMC), stochastic differential equations (SDE), and random differential equations (RDE). The effectiveness and limitations of implementing the AIC for comparison of stochastic models is demonstrated using simulated data from the three types of models and then applied to experimental longitudinal growth data for algae.

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Text in English / The membership of the African Independent Churches is growing day by day. Research into the growth ohhis phenomenon is being conducted by various scholars. G.C. Oosthuizen studied the African Independent Churches in general, and the Shembe Church, in particular. This study examines Oosthuizen' s research of the African Independent Churches by analysing the three books that he devoted specifically to the Shembe Church. A set of five criteria is developed to evaluate Oosthuizen as a researcher. The study finds that his background and formation affected the research he conducted and contributed to the type of picture he portrayed of the Shembe Church. Oosthuizen, as a scholar of religion, sometimes allowed his theological interests to influence his research. As an empirical researcher Oosthuizen attempted to let the AICs "speak for themselves" but his theological interests caused him to make value judgements which influenced his research findings. / Christian Spirituality, Church History and Missiology / M. Th. (Missiology)

O interesse pela quantificação da biomassa florestal vem crescendo muito nos últimos anos, sendo este crescimento relacionado diretamente ao potencial que as florestas tem em acumular carbono atmosférico na sua biomassa. A biomassa florestal pode ser acessada diretamente, por meio de inventário, ou através de modelos empíricos de predição. A construção de modelos de predição de biomassa envolve a mensuração das variáveis e o ajuste e seleção de modelos estatísticos. A partir de uma amostra destrutiva de de 200 indivíduos de dez essências florestais distintas advindos da região de Linhares, ES., foram construídos modelos de predição empíricos de biomassa aérea visando futuro uso em projetos de reflorestamento. O processo de construção dos modelos consistiu de uma análise das técnicas de obtenção dos dados e de ajuste dos modelos, bem como de uma análise dos processos de seleção destes a partir do critério de Informação de Akaike (AIC). No processo de obtenção dos dados foram testadas a técnica volumétrica e a técnica gravimétrica, a partir da coleta de cinco discos de madeira por árvore, em posições distintas no lenho. Na técnica gravimétrica, estudou-se diferentes técnicas de composição do teor de umidade dos discos para determinação da biomassa, concluindo-se como a melhor a que utiliza a média aritmética dos discos da base, meio e topo. Na técnica volumétrica, estudou-se diferentes técnicas de composição da densidade do tronco com base nas densidades básicas dos discos, concluindo-se que em termos de densidade do tronco, a média aritmética das densidades básicas dos cinco discos se mostrou como melhor técnica. Entretanto, quando se multiplica a densidade do tronco pelo volume deste para obtenção da biomassa, a utilização da densidade básica do disco do meio se mostrou superior a todas as técnicas. A utilização de uma densidade básica média da espécie para determinação da biomassa, via técnica volumétrica, se apresentou como uma abordagem inferior a qualquer técnica que utiliza informação da densidade do tronco das árvores individualmente. Por fim, sete modelos de predição de biomassa aérea de árvores considerando seus diferentes compartimentos foram ajustados, a partir das funções de Spurr e Schumacher-Hall, com e sem a inclusão da altura como variável preditora. Destes modelos, quatro eram gaussianos e três eram lognormais. Estes mesmos sete modelos foram ajustados incluindo a medida de penetração como variável preditora, totalizando quatorze modelos testados. O modelo de Schumacher-Hall se mostrou, de maneira geral, superior ao modelo de Spurr. A altura só se mostrou efetiva na explicação da biomassa das árvores quando em conjunto com a medida de penetração. Os modelos selecionados foram do grupo que incluíram a medida de penetração no lenho como variável preditora e , exceto o modelo de predição da biomassa de folhas, todos se mostraram adequados para aplicação na predição da biomassa aérea em áreas de reflorestamento. / Forest biomass measurement implies a destructive procedure, thus forest inventories and biomass surveys apply indirect procedure for the determination of biomass of the different components of the forest (wood, branches, leaves, roots, etc.). The usual approch consists in taking a destructive sample for the measurment of trees attributes and an empirical relationship is established between the biomass and other attributes that can be directly measured on standing trees, e.g., stem diameter and tree height. The biomass determination of felled trees can be achived by two techniques: the gravimetric technique, that weights the components in the field and take a sample for the determination of water content in the laboratory; and the volumetric technique, that determines the volume of the component in the field and take a sample for the determination of the wood specific gravity (wood basic density) in the laboratory. The gravimetric technique applies to all components of the trees, while the volumetric technique is usually restricted to the stem and large branches. In this study, these two techniques are studied in a sample fo 200 trees of 10 different species from the region of Linhares, ES. In each tree, 5 cross-sections of the stem were taken to investigate the best procedure for the determination of water content in gravimetric technique and for determination of the wood specific gravity in the volumetric technique. Also, Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) was used to compare different statistical models for the prediction o tree biomass. For the stem water content determination, the best procedure as the aritmetic mean of the water content from the cross-sections in the base, middle and top of the stem. In the determination of wood specific gravity, the best procedure was the aritmetic mean of all five cross-sections discs of the stem, however, for the determination of the biomass, i.e., the product of stem volume and wood specific gravity, the best procedure was the use of the middle stem cross-section disc wood specific gravity. The use of an average wood specific gravity by species showed worse results than any procedure that used information of wood specific gravity at individual tree level. Seven models, as variations of Spurr and Schumacher-Hall volume equation models, were tested for the different tree components: wood (stem and large branches), little branches, leaves and total biomass. In general, Schumacher-Hall models were better than Spurr based models, and models that included only diameter (DBH) information performed better than models with diameter and height measurements. When a measure of penetration in the wood, as a surrogate of wood density, was added to the models, the models with the three variables: diameter, height and penetration, became the best models.

Dans cette thèse nous élargissons le champ d'application des modèles ARMA (AutoRegressive Moving-Average) vectoriels en considérant des termes d'erreur non corrélés mais qui peuvent contenir des dépendances non linéaires. Ces modèles sont appelés des ARMA faibles vectoriels et permettent de traiter des processus qui peuvent avoir des dynamiques non linéaires très générales. Par opposition, nous appelons ARMA forts les modèles utilisés habituellement dans la littérature dans lesquels le terme d'erreur est supposé être un bruit iid. Les modèles ARMA faibles étant en particulier denses dans l'ensemble des processus stationnaires réguliers, ils sont bien plus généraux que les modèles ARMA forts. Le problème qui nous préoccupera sera l'analyse statistique des modèles ARMA faibles vectoriels. Plus précisément, nous étudions les problèmes d'estimation et de validation. Dans un premier temps, nous étudions les propriétés asymptotiques de l'estimateur du quasi-maximum de vraisemblance et de l'estimateur des moindres carrés. La matrice de variance asymptotique de ces estimateurs est d'une forme "sandwich", et peut être très différente de la variance asymptotique obtenue dans le cas fort. Ensuite, nous accordons une attention particulière aux problèmes de validation. Dans un premier temps, en proposant des versions modifiées des tests de Wald, du multiplicateur de Lagrange et du rapport de vraisemblance pour tester des restrictions linéaires sur les paramètres de modèles ARMA faibles vectoriels. En second, nous nous intéressons aux tests fondés sur les résidus, qui ont pour objet de vérifier que les résidus des modèles estimés sont bien des estimations de bruits blancs. Plus particulièrement, nous nous intéressons aux tests portmanteau, aussi appelés tests d'autocorrélation. Nous montrons que la distribution asymptotique des autocorrelations résiduelles est normalement distribuée avec une matrice de covariance différente du cas fort (c'est-à-dire sous les hypothèses iid sur le bruit). Nous en déduisons le comportement asymptotique des statistiques portmanteau. Dans le cadre standard d'un ARMA fort, il est connu que la distribution asymptotique des tests portmanteau est correctement approximée par un chi-deux. Dans le cas général, nous montrons que cette distribution asymptotique est celle d'une somme pondérée de chi-deux. Cette distribution peut être très différente de l'approximation chi-deux usuelle du cas fort. Nous proposons donc des tests portmanteau modifiés pour tester l'adéquation de modèles ARMA faibles vectoriels. Enfin, nous nous sommes intéressés aux choix des modèles ARMA faibles vectoriels fondé sur la minimisation d'un critère d'information, notamment celui introduit par Akaike (AIC). Avec ce critère, on tente de donner une approximation de la distance (souvent appelée information de Kullback-Leibler) entre la vraie loi des observations (inconnue) et la loi du modèle estimé. Nous verrons que le critère corrigé (AICc) dans le cadre des modèles ARMA faibles vectoriels peut, là aussi, être très différent du cas fort.

Long-term diet patterns based on stable isotope analysis may be helpful to understand changes in food selection of black bears (Ursus americanus) over time and guide management programs to reduce human-bear conflicts. An enriched stable carbon isotope signature indicates an anthropogenic food source in the diet and an enriched nitrogen signature indicates a higher tropic level for a species. I examined longitudinal feeding patterns from 117 hair samples of black bears live captured in Great Smoky Mountains National Park during 1980–2001 using stable carbon and nitrogen isotope analysis from hair samples. I developed a set of a priori models to examine if sex, age class, year, weight class, total hard mast index, white oak index (Quercus spp.), red oak index (Quercus spp.), nuisance status and hog harvest (Sus scrofa) affected stable isotope signatures. I used model averaging and an estimator of the unconditional variance was used to account for model uncertainty. The δ[delta]13C signatures differed by weight class with above average weight, (ß[Beta] = 0.76‰; 95% CI = 0.28 to 1.23) and average weight (ß[Beta] = 0.42‰; CI = 0.06 to 0.78) showing enriched values compared to below average bears. Bears had enriched δ[delta]15N signatures in years with low white oak mast production (ß[beta] = -0.19, CI = -0.34 to -0.03) and depleted when white oak hard mast was abundant. Sub adult bears had enriched δ[delta]15N signatures compared to adult and older adult bears. Variation of nitrogen values was small during 1980–1991 ( = 2.57, SD = 0.28) but increased substantially during 1992–2000 ( = 2.29, SD = 0.71) when there was substantial variation in hard mast production. Bears in better physical condition appear more likely to access anthropogenic food sources. In years of low white oak acorn production, the larger bears and sub adult bears are more likely to turn to alternative food sources. The long term variation detected in this study is important in identifying which bears are potentially more likely to seek out the anthropogenic food sources when changes occur in availability of natural foods.

A framework is proposed that combines separately developed multidisciplinary optimization, multi-objective optimization, and joint probability assessment methods together but in a decoupled way, to solve joint probabilistic constraint, multi-objective, multidisciplinary optimization problems that are representative of realistic conceptual design problems of design alternative generation and selection. The intent here is to find the Weak Pareto Frontier (WPF) solutions that include additional compromised solutions besides the ones identified by a conventional Pareto frontier. This framework starts with constructing fast and accurate surrogate models of different disciplinary analyses. A new hybrid method is formed that consists of the second order Response Surface Methodology (RSM) and the Support Vector Regression (SVR) method. The three parameters needed by SVR to be pre-specified are automatically selected using a modified information criterion based on model fitting error, predicting error, and model complexity information. The model predicting error is estimated inexpensively with a new method called Random Cross Validation. This modified information criterion is also used to select the best surrogate model for a given problem out of the RSM, SVR, and the hybrid methods. A new neighborhood search method based on Monte Carlo simulation is proposed to find valid designs that satisfy the deterministic constraints and are consistent for the coupling variables featured in a multidisciplinary design problem, and at the same time decouple the three loops required by the multidisciplinary, multi-objective, and probabilistic features. Two schemes have been developed. One scheme finds the WPF by finding a large enough number of valid design solutions such that some WPF solutions are included in those valid solutions. Another scheme finds the WPF by directly finding the WPF of each consistent design zone. Then the probabilities of the PCs are estimated, and the WPF and corresponding design solutions are found. Various examples demonstrate the feasibility of this framework.

In this thesis Generalized Additive Neural Networks (GANNs) are studied in the context of predictive Data Mining. A GANN is a novel neural network implementation of a Generalized Additive Model. Originally GANNs were constructed interactively by considering partial residual plots. This methodology involves subjective human judgment, is time consuming, and can result in suboptimal results. The newly developed automated construction algorithm solves these difficulties by performing model selection based on an objective model selection criterion. Partial residual plots are only utilized after the best model is found to gain insight into the relationships between inputs and the target. Models are organized in a search tree with a greedy search procedure that identifies good models in a relatively short time. The automated construction algorithm, implemented in the powerful SAS® language, is nontrivial, effective, and comparable to other model selection methodologies found in the literature. This implementation, which is called AutoGANN, has a simple, intuitive, and user-friendly interface. The AutoGANN system is further extended with an approximation to Bayesian Model Averaging. This technique accounts for uncertainty about the variables that must be included in the model and uncertainty about the model structure. Model averaging utilizes in-sample model selection criteria and creates a combined model with better predictive ability than using any single model. In the field of Credit Scoring, the standard theory of scorecard building is not tampered with, but a pre-processing step is introduced to arrive at a more accurate scorecard that discriminates better between good and bad applicants. The pre-processing step exploits GANN models to achieve significant reductions in marginal and cumulative bad rates. The time it takes to develop a scorecard may be reduced by utilizing the automated construction algorithm. / Thesis (Ph.D. (Computer Science))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2006.