Thesis (MA)--Stellenbosch University, 2011. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This research study aims to analyze the illicit arms trade in states in transition. While both the study of the illicit arms trade and the study of states in transition per se, are characterized by a variety of concepts and debates within academia, this study attempts to establish a coherent and concise connection between the two. Therefore, the main research question is: How do the capacity gaps of social control, social welfare, border control and legitimacy contribute to the proliferation of the illicit arms trade in states in transition? For the purpose of this study, the researcher uses the theoretical framework based on capacity gaps and functional holes as outlined by Phil Williams (2002). Williams (2002) states that organized crime and transnational organized crime (TOC), which the illicit arms trade is a part of, flourish in states that are weakened by capacity gaps and where the accompanying functional holes open up the way for organized crime and TOC to work with impunity. The seven capacity gaps that Williams (2002) outlines are: social control, social welfare, business regulation, oversight and accountability, border control, legitimacy and electoral norms and patterns. However, this thesis does not focus on all seven capacity gaps; instead, only the capacity gaps of social control, social welfare, border control and legitimacy are analysed. This decision has been based on the literature by Williams (2002), Migdal (1988), Beck and Laeven (2006), who suggest that a state in transition cannot complete its transitional period and become a consolidated democracy if high levels of social control, social welfare, respect for the rule of law and legitimacy are not obtained. Moreover, this research study conducts a comparative analysis of two states in transition, South Africa and Croatia, which have both been experiencing difficulties with TOC and the illicit arms trade, and where both states still have not completed their transitional period, and are thus not consolidated democracies. This research does not imply that the findings of this study are applicable to all states in transition; the focus is rather on how the four capacity gaps and functional holes that this research focused on contribute to the proliferation of the illicit arms trade in South Africa and Croatia. The findings indicate that due to high levels of corruption within the judicial system and police, the citizens of South Africa and Croatia lack trust in the states’ capacity to impose social control, which in turn opens the way for organized criminal groups to work with impunity. Furthermore, the social welfare capacity gap contributes to the rise in levels of organized crime and the illicit arms trade due to the fact that levels of inequality and unemployment force the citizens of South Africa and Croatia to look for alternative survival strategies, usually those that organized criminal groups can provide them with. Moreover, the lack of resources and corruption among custom officials and police staff, serve as opportunities for organized criminal groups to traffic illicit goods over South Africa and Croatia’s borders; thus indicating a functional hole in the states interdictory capacity and an overall gap in the states capacity to control its borders. Lastly, due to the South African and Croatian citizens’ lack of trust in the institutions and the state apparatus in general, the capacity gap of legitimacy is visible. This in turn opens the way for organized criminal groups to use patron-client relationships with the citizens of South Africa and Croatia, in order to build and sustain a level of popular legitimacy that the state is lacking. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie navorsingsprojek streef daarna om die onwettige handel in wapens as deel van transnasionale georganiseerde misdaad binne state in transisie te analiseer. Alhoewel navorsing in die onwettige handel van wapens, asook die studie van state in transisie gekenmerk word deur vele konsepte en debatte binne die velde; poog hierdie studie om die twee konsepte in ʼn duidelike en presiese manier te verbind. In die lig hiervan is die navorsings vraag: Hoe dra die kapasiteitsgapings van sosiale beheer, sosiale welvaart, grens kontrole en legitimiteit by tot die volhoubaarheid van die onwettige handel in wapens in state in transisie? Vir die doel van hierdie studie het die navorser besluit om gebruik te maak van die teoretiese raamwerk gebaseer op kapasiteitsgapings en funksionele-openinge soos beskryf deur Phil Williams (2002). Wiliams (2002) voer aan dat georganiseerde misdaad en transnasionale misdaad, waarvan die onwettige handel in wapens ʼn deel uitmaak, floreer in state wat verswak is deur kapasitietsgapings; en waar bygaande funksionele-openinge die weg baan vir transnasionale misdaad om te floreer. Die sewe kapasiteitsgapings soos deur Williams (2002) beskryf is: sosiale beheer, sosiale welvaart, besigheid-regulering, oorsig en aanspreeklikheid, grens kontrole, legitimiteit en verkiesings norme en patrone. Hierdie tesis fokus egter nie op al sewe kapasiteitsgapings nie. Daar word slegs gefokus op die kapasiteitsgapings van sosiale beheer, sosiale welvaart, grens kontrole en legitimiteit. Hierdie besluit is gebaseer op literatuur deur William (2002), Joel S. Migdal (1988), Thorsten Beck en Luc Laeven (2006) en dies meer wat voorstel dat ʼn staat in transisie nie die transisie periode kan voltooi en ʼn vaste demokrasie kan raak indien hoe vlakke van sosiale beheer, sosiale welvaart, respek vir wet en orde en legitimiteit nie verkry word nie. Verder maak hierdie navorsing gebruik van ʼn vergelykende analise tussen twee state in transisie: Suid Afrika en Kroasië. Beide hierdie state ervaar probleme met trans-nasionale misdaad en die onwettige handel in wapens. Beide het ook nog nie hul transisie periode voltooi nie en is dus nie vaste of gekonsolideerde demokrasieë nie. Hoewel die navorser nie aanvoer dat die bevindinge van hierdie studie van toepassing is op alle state in transisie nie, probeer die navorser vasstel hoe die vier kapasiteitsgapings en funksionele-openinge bydrae tot die volhoubaarheid van die onwettige handel in wapens in Suid Afrika en Kroasië. Die bevindinge dui daarop dat as gevolg van hoë vlakke van korrupsie binne die regstelsel en polisie, die bevolking van Suid Afrika en Kroasië nie die staat se kapasiteit om sosiale beheer te handhaaf, vertrou nie. Dit maak die gaping oop vir georganiseerde misdaad om sonder teenkant te handel. Verder, die sosiale welvaart gaping, dra by tot die toename in die vlakke van georganiseerde misdaad en die onwettige handel in wapens as gevolg van hoë vlakke van ongelykheid en armoede, wat die bevolking van Suid Afrika en Kroasië dwing tot alternatiewe metodes van oorlewing wat gewoonlik deur georganiseerde misdaad groepe verskaf word. Verder, die gebrek aan toerusting en ook korrupsie binne grensbeheer en polisie lede, verskaf die geleentheid vir georganiseerde misdaad groepe om in onwettige goedere te handel. Dit dui op die funksionele gaping in die staat se beheersmeganismes en oor die algemeen ʼn gaping in die staat se kapasiteit om grense te beheer. Ten laaste, as gevolg van die gebrek aan vertroue van die bevolking in die strukture van die staat Suid Afrika en Kroasië is die kapasitietsgaping van legitimiteit duidelik teenwoordig. Dit open die weg vir georganiseerde misdaad groepe om populêre gesag op te bou, wat daar nie is by die regering van die lande nie.

This research project studies the military exchanges between the United States and People's Republic of China. US-PRC relations have experienced uneven developments over the last decadeas the two major powers have grappled with the evolving post-Cold War international security Environment as well as shifting domestic agendas and foreign policy priorities. While the October 2002 Crawford summit between Presidents Bush and Jiang, and the resumption of the Defense Consultation Talks in December 2002 offer the prospect for restoring bilateral military exchanges. For a more stable bilateral military relationship to develop and be sustained, longer-term strategies must be formulated that emphasize engagement, exchanges, and better understanding of each other's common interests, priorities, and policy options. Among the key features of this relationship are high-level exchange visits of defense ministers and military leaders; confidence-building measures, including the Military Maritime Consultative Agreement, annual Defense Consultation Talks, and port visits; and regular contacts at the functional level between the two countries' national defense universities and military academies. The EP-3 incident raised the importance of China in the Bush Administration's immediate policy agenda. The resolution of the incident has pointed to the need for dialogue. The 11 September 2001 terrorist attacks provided additional impetuses for rebuilding the bilateral relationship, including efforts to restore military-to-military exchanges.

Clear changes occurred in the field of conventional arms control in the last two decades. States adopted a multitude of norms on especially small arms control in various multilateral control instruments. In addition, non-governmental advocacy actors often established themselves as active participants in control debates with governments. The changes are surprising because they took place in the security sphere and therewith in an area traditionally understood to be the exclusive domain of governments. This research project investigates the significance of the changes for the traditional understanding of security governance. Specifically, it investigates the emergence of control norms and the role and policy impact of non-governmental actors in the promotion of the norms. It asks whether the normative changes and significance of nongovernmental actors therein challenge the understanding of security governance that underpins many established approaches to international relations theory.

Clear changes occurred in the field of conventional arms control in the last two decades. States adopted a multitude of norms on especially small arms control in various multilateral control instruments. In addition, non-governmental advocacy actors often established themselves as active participants in control debates with governments. The changes are surprising because they took place in the security sphere and therewith in an area traditionally understood to be the exclusive domain of governments. This research project investigates the significance of the changes for the traditional understanding of security governance. Specifically, it investigates the emergence of control norms and the role and policy impact of non-governmental actors in the promotion of the norms. It asks whether the normative changes and significance of nongovernmental actors therein challenge the understanding of security governance that underpins many established approaches to international relations theory.

This paper examines United States arms transfer policies as they have been applied to Peru since the end of World War II and analyzes the role of these policies in achieving the goals of the United States as delineated by Luigi Einaudi et al. in their Arms Transfers to Latin America: Toward a Policy of Mutual Respect. The paper traces the course of recent U.S.-Peruvian relations, with special emphasis on Peru's arms acquisitions since 1968. The author concludes that, while U.S. arms transfer policies have undoubtedly strained U.S.-Peruvian relations over the past decade, the refusal of the U.S. to provide advanced weapons to Peru will prove to be in the best interests of the United States in the long run.

Alors que la fin de la bipolarité s’est accompagnée du déclin de la guerre au niveau mondial, l’Afrique subsaharienne connaît depuis le début des années 1990, une résurgence de la violence armée dont la forme la plus courante est la guerre civile. L’Afrique Occidentale est l’une des régions les plus touchées par cette multiplication de conflits armés infraétatiques dont les trois plus importants ont été les guerres civiles libérienne, sierra-léonaise et ivoirienne. Cette conflictualité a donné lieu à l’émergence d’acteurs non étatiques qui, dans un contexte de mondialisation accrue, ont adopté le warlordism comme mode opératoire. Ces guerres internes, parfois qualifiées de « nouvelles guerres », sont à la fois le produit de la crise de l’Etat, de profondes inégalités horizontales, et de l’instrumentalisation des différences identitaires par certaines élites. Elles se sont développées au-delà du cadre national, avec l’implication de différents acteurs transnationaux, et ont favorisé l’émergence d’un véritable « système de guerre » ouest-africain. Elles sont également l’expression d’une remise en cause du modèle étatique westphalien. La conflictualité régionale qui est apparue en Afrique Occidentale post-Guerre froide invite donc à accorder davantage d’attention aux communautés de destin imbriquées qui de plus en plus, occupent une place centrale dans les dynamiques qui façonnent l’Afrique au sud du Sahara. / Whereas the end of bipolarity occurred along with the decline of war at the world level, Sub-Saharan Africa has experienced a surge of armed violence since the early 1990s, in the most common form of civil wars. West Africa is one of the areas mostly affected by the proliferation of intra-state armed conflicts, including three major civil wars in Liberia, Sierra Leone and the Ivory Coast. Such conflicts, sometimes called « new wars », have led to the emergence of non-state actors who act as warlords, in a context of spreading globalisation. These domestic wars are the result of state crisis, deep horizontal inequalities, and political instrumentalisation by some elites of identity-based differences. Through the involvement of various transnational actors, these armed conflicts have extended beyond the national framework and built an actual West-African « system of war ». They also challenge the Westphalian state-model. Post-Cold war regional conflicts in West Africa hence suggest an increased focus on overlapping communities of fate, which play a key-role in the dynamics shaping Sub-Saharan Africa.