Bien que les champignons mycorhiziens arbusculaires (AMF) soient présents des habitats collinaires aux habitats alpins, les recherches sur leur rôle dans l’écosystème montagnard sont encore incomplètes. Les objectifs de cette thèse sont d’analyser l’écologie et le fonctionnement des AMF ainsi que leur réponse au changement global dans les écosystèmes montagnards. Nous tentons de répondre aux questions de recherche suivantes : quels sont les effets de l’altitude sur les AMF indépendamment des effets des autres gradients et de la relation AMF-plante hôte ? Quelles relations de facilitation se développent dans les écosystèmes montagnards et quels bénéfices les plantes tirent-elles des AMF ?Avec l’augmentation d’un stress environnemental la symbiose AMF-plante doit théoriquement devenir plus mutualiste. Nous émettons l’hypothèse d’une modification du fonctionnement des interactions AMF-plante selon un gradient altitudinal dans les conditions environnementales actuelles, puis dans les conditions futures. Afin de vérifier ces hypothèses, une expérimentation in situ a été mise en place dans les Alpes Centrales d’Italie pour évaluer les variations des taux de mycorhization et leur abondance dans la communauté microbienne du sol, étudier la nature des relations entre plantes et mycorhizes ainsi que la productivité végétale le long d’un gradient altitudinal. De plus, les influences d’une augmentation de la température et d’une réduction des précipitations sont analysées séparément dans une chambre de croissance sous conditions contrôlées, ce qui permet de distinguer leurs effets respectifs sur la productivité des plantes et sur les interactions plantes – mycorhizes.Cette thèse montre que les AMF sont omniprésents dans les écosystèmes de montagne et qu’une diminution de leur abondance avec l'altitude dépend du contexte climatique global. D'autre part, la relation des AMF avec les plantes est fortement dépendante de la plante-hôte, ainsi que du contexte biotique et abiotique. Troisièmement, un changement des interactions AMF-plante avec l'altitude est suggéré par des indices indirects, mais est également très probablement dépendant de l'identité de la plante hôte. Cette thèse propose aussi une nouvelle orientation de recherche pour bien évaluer les hypothèses présentées. Il est nécessaire de réaliser des études sur le terrain où la présence des AMF est contrôlée et les interactions AMF-plante peuvent être évaluées. Afin de généraliser les résultats, ces expérimentations doivent être menées à différentes échelles spatiales et représenter différentes aires géographiques.Il est particulièrement important de comprendre et de qualifier ces processus en zone montagnarde pour prévoir leur évolution possible dans un contexte de changement global. Nos expérimentations montrent en effet que le réchauffement est un facteur important car il aggrave les conditions de sécheresse en basse altitude et entraine une baisse de la productivité des plantes. Nous démontrons que la présence de mycorhizes atténue l’impact du changement climatique sur la productivité des plantes mais que le niveau de cette atténuation varie selon les espèces de plantes.Les connaissances actuelles concernant les AMF en milieu montagnard sont peu développées sur les processus en jeu dans les interactions AMF-plantes. Grâce aux hypothèses présentées et à leur approche expérimentale cette thèse offre de nouvelles perspectives sur l’analyse de ces processus. / Even though arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) are present from foothills to all alpine habitats, research on their role in mountain ecosystems remains incomplete. The main objective of this dissertation was to investigate interactions between AMF and plants along altitudinal gradients under both, natural conditions and simulated future climate change conditions.A novel framework is suggested for the functioning of the AMF-plant relationship along altitudinal gradients based on the stress gradient hypothesis. The first hypothesis expects the AMF-relationship to shift along the mutualism–parasitism continuum following changing environmental stress along the altitudinal gradient. The relationship might be most mutualistic at the subalpine zone. In a second hypothesis, this shift along the mutualism-parasitism continuum is predicted to be different under climate change conditions, and the most mutualistic expression of the AMF-plant relationship expected in the montane and alpine zone. Studies to validate the presented hypotheses will help to identify important mechanisms underlying plant-AMF interaction and with that the mediation of plant-plant interactions by AMF. In the scope of this thesis, the framework was addressed in field experiment as well as under controlled conditions in a climate chamber experiment.From a literature review and from a field experiment along a dry inner-alpine altitudinal gradient this thesis proposes the following conclusions: First, AMF are also ubiquitous in mountain ecosystems, but a decrease in their abundance with increasing altitude is dependent on the overall climatic context. Second, their relationship to plants is however strongly dependent on the host plant species as well as the biotic and abiotic context. Third, a shift of the AMF-relationship along with altitude is expected but will quite possibly also depend on the plant species identity. Fourth, to fully assess the suggested working hypotheses for AMF-plant interactions field studies must be conducted at different spatial scales and covering different mountain systems.It is particularly important to understand and investigate the drivers of AMF plant relationship in mountain ecosystems to be able to make sound predictions for AMF-plant interactions under future climate change conditions. The presented field and climate chamber experiments on climate change show that temperature is an important factor because it aggravates the conditions of drought in lowland and a threshold is surpassed. It becomes also clear that whether AMF mitigate climate change effects for plants or not is dependent on the plant species. Altogether this thesis contributes to current research questions in ecology, climate change mitigation and plant–soil interactions, because it addresses the role of AMF in mountain grassland ecosystem, investigates the effects of climate change and provides a new framework concerning the functioning of the AMF-plant relationship ranging from parasitism to mutualism.

We discuss efficient Bayesian estimation of dynamic covariance matrices in multivariate time series through a factor stochastic volatility model. In particular, we propose two interweaving strategies (Yu and Meng, Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, 20(3), 531-570, 2011) to substantially accelerate convergence and mixing of standard MCMC approaches. Similar to marginal data augmentation techniques, the proposed acceleration procedures exploit non-identifiability issues which frequently arise in factor models. Our new interweaving strategies are easy to implement and come at almost no extra computational cost; nevertheless, they can boost estimation efficiency by several orders of magnitude as is shown in extensive simulation studies. To conclude, the application of our algorithm to a 26-dimensional exchange rate data set illustrates the superior performance of the new approach for real-world data. / Series: Research Report Series / Department of Statistics and Mathematics

A capacidade de o marketing mensurar e comunicar o valor de suas atividades e investimentos tem sido uma das prioridades de pesquisa na área nos últimos anos. Para atingir esse objetivo, a capacidade de mensurar adequadamente os ativos de marketing, como o Customer Lifetime Value e, de forma agregada, o Customer Equity, torna-se essencial, pois esses ativos são considerados os elementos capazes de traduzir em valores monetários o resultado dos diversos investimentos realizados pela área de marketing. Diante da mensuração desses valores, é possível o planejamento e a realização de ações mais precisas por parte dos profissionais de marketing. Sendo assim, no presente estudo objetivou-se construir e aplicar um modelo de estimação de Customer Lifetime Value no modo bottom-up (individual por cliente) em uma amostra de clientes de uma empresa do setor de serviços financeiros. O modelo bayesiano hierárquico aplicado, com três regressões estruturadas conforme o modelo Seemingly Unrelated Regressions (SUR) (ZELNER, 1971), foi construído a partir dos trabalhos de Kumar et al. (2008), Kumar e Shah (2009) e Cowles, Carlin e Connet (1996). Os resultados evidenciaram (1) que o modelo foi capaz de estimar com consistência o valor futuro de 84% dos clientes analisados; (2) que esse valor estimado traduz o potencial de rentabilidade que pode ser esperado futuramente para cada cliente; (3) que a base de clientes pode ser segmentada a partir do Customer Lifetime Value. Diante do conhecimento do valor futuro de cada cliente, se vislumbrou possibilidades de ações que tragam melhorias para gestão de clientes tradicionalmente utilizada, principalmente no que diz respeito à alocação dos recursos de marketing. / The marketing capacity to measure and to communicate the value resultant of its activities and investments has been one of the area top research priorities in the last few years. In order to achieve this objective, the capacity to appropriately measure the marketing assets, as the Customer Lifetime Value and, in aggregate form, the Customer Equity, has been pointed out as essential, because this assets are considered elements capable of translating the result of marketing investments into monetary values. Given the measurement of those values, marketers become able to plan and take more precise actions. Thus, the objective of present study is to build and test a bottom-up Customer Lifetime Value estimation model to a sample of customers from a company of finance services. The bayesian hierarchical model, composed of three regressions structured according to the Seemingly Unrelated Regressions (SUR) model (ZELNER, 1971), was built from the works of Kumar et al. (2008), Kumar and Shah (2009) and Cowles, Carlin and Connet (1996). The results show that (1) the model was capable to estimate with consistency the future value of 84% of the analyzed customers; (2) this estimated future values indicate the potential profitability of each customer; (3) the customer base can be segmented from the Customer Lifetime Value. Given the knowledge obtained about the future value of each customer and the segments established, several actions that can bring improvements to the traditional way of managing customers were suggested, in special those concerning marketing resource allocation.

A capacidade de o marketing mensurar e comunicar o valor de suas atividades e investimentos tem sido uma das prioridades de pesquisa na área nos últimos anos. Para atingir esse objetivo, a capacidade de mensurar adequadamente os ativos de marketing, como o Customer Lifetime Value e, de forma agregada, o Customer Equity, torna-se essencial, pois esses ativos são considerados os elementos capazes de traduzir em valores monetários o resultado dos diversos investimentos realizados pela área de marketing. Diante da mensuração desses valores, é possível o planejamento e a realização de ações mais precisas por parte dos profissionais de marketing. Sendo assim, no presente estudo objetivou-se construir e aplicar um modelo de estimação de Customer Lifetime Value no modo bottom-up (individual por cliente) em uma amostra de clientes de uma empresa do setor de serviços financeiros. O modelo bayesiano hierárquico aplicado, com três regressões estruturadas conforme o modelo Seemingly Unrelated Regressions (SUR) (ZELNER, 1971), foi construído a partir dos trabalhos de Kumar et al. (2008), Kumar e Shah (2009) e Cowles, Carlin e Connet (1996). Os resultados evidenciaram (1) que o modelo foi capaz de estimar com consistência o valor futuro de 84% dos clientes analisados; (2) que esse valor estimado traduz o potencial de rentabilidade que pode ser esperado futuramente para cada cliente; (3) que a base de clientes pode ser segmentada a partir do Customer Lifetime Value. Diante do conhecimento do valor futuro de cada cliente, se vislumbrou possibilidades de ações que tragam melhorias para gestão de clientes tradicionalmente utilizada, principalmente no que diz respeito à alocação dos recursos de marketing. / The marketing capacity to measure and to communicate the value resultant of its activities and investments has been one of the area top research priorities in the last few years. In order to achieve this objective, the capacity to appropriately measure the marketing assets, as the Customer Lifetime Value and, in aggregate form, the Customer Equity, has been pointed out as essential, because this assets are considered elements capable of translating the result of marketing investments into monetary values. Given the measurement of those values, marketers become able to plan and take more precise actions. Thus, the objective of present study is to build and test a bottom-up Customer Lifetime Value estimation model to a sample of customers from a company of finance services. The bayesian hierarchical model, composed of three regressions structured according to the Seemingly Unrelated Regressions (SUR) model (ZELNER, 1971), was built from the works of Kumar et al. (2008), Kumar and Shah (2009) and Cowles, Carlin and Connet (1996). The results show that (1) the model was capable to estimate with consistency the future value of 84% of the analyzed customers; (2) this estimated future values indicate the potential profitability of each customer; (3) the customer base can be segmented from the Customer Lifetime Value. Given the knowledge obtained about the future value of each customer and the segments established, several actions that can bring improvements to the traditional way of managing customers were suggested, in special those concerning marketing resource allocation.

A capacidade de o marketing mensurar e comunicar o valor de suas atividades e investimentos tem sido uma das prioridades de pesquisa na área nos últimos anos. Para atingir esse objetivo, a capacidade de mensurar adequadamente os ativos de marketing, como o Customer Lifetime Value e, de forma agregada, o Customer Equity, torna-se essencial, pois esses ativos são considerados os elementos capazes de traduzir em valores monetários o resultado dos diversos investimentos realizados pela área de marketing. Diante da mensuração desses valores, é possível o planejamento e a realização de ações mais precisas por parte dos profissionais de marketing. Sendo assim, no presente estudo objetivou-se construir e aplicar um modelo de estimação de Customer Lifetime Value no modo bottom-up (individual por cliente) em uma amostra de clientes de uma empresa do setor de serviços financeiros. O modelo bayesiano hierárquico aplicado, com três regressões estruturadas conforme o modelo Seemingly Unrelated Regressions (SUR) (ZELNER, 1971), foi construído a partir dos trabalhos de Kumar et al. (2008), Kumar e Shah (2009) e Cowles, Carlin e Connet (1996). Os resultados evidenciaram (1) que o modelo foi capaz de estimar com consistência o valor futuro de 84% dos clientes analisados; (2) que esse valor estimado traduz o potencial de rentabilidade que pode ser esperado futuramente para cada cliente; (3) que a base de clientes pode ser segmentada a partir do Customer Lifetime Value. Diante do conhecimento do valor futuro de cada cliente, se vislumbrou possibilidades de ações que tragam melhorias para gestão de clientes tradicionalmente utilizada, principalmente no que diz respeito à alocação dos recursos de marketing. / The marketing capacity to measure and to communicate the value resultant of its activities and investments has been one of the area top research priorities in the last few years. In order to achieve this objective, the capacity to appropriately measure the marketing assets, as the Customer Lifetime Value and, in aggregate form, the Customer Equity, has been pointed out as essential, because this assets are considered elements capable of translating the result of marketing investments into monetary values. Given the measurement of those values, marketers become able to plan and take more precise actions. Thus, the objective of present study is to build and test a bottom-up Customer Lifetime Value estimation model to a sample of customers from a company of finance services. The bayesian hierarchical model, composed of three regressions structured according to the Seemingly Unrelated Regressions (SUR) model (ZELNER, 1971), was built from the works of Kumar et al. (2008), Kumar and Shah (2009) and Cowles, Carlin and Connet (1996). The results show that (1) the model was capable to estimate with consistency the future value of 84% of the analyzed customers; (2) this estimated future values indicate the potential profitability of each customer; (3) the customer base can be segmented from the Customer Lifetime Value. Given the knowledge obtained about the future value of each customer and the segments established, several actions that can bring improvements to the traditional way of managing customers were suggested, in special those concerning marketing resource allocation.

Orientadores: Ricardo Ribeiro Gudwin, Rodrigo Almeida Gonçalves / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Eletrica e de Computação / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-11T13:41:21Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Paraense_AndreLuisOgando_M.pdf: 18795606 bytes, checksum: ebdaafc954d8fc94a61c93e59d8e6d79 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2008 / Resumo: Problemas não estruturados são problemas que dependem de variáveis não quantificáveis, não mensuráveis, imprecisas ou incertas, e que podem depender de fatores culturais, políticos, sociais, econômicos e ambientais. Sistemas ¿Otimizantes¿, onde há uma forte dependência na lógica e fraca interação homem-máquina, geralmente não são capazes de resolver este tipo de problema, pois não há nestes sistemas um processamento semântico adequado para manipular convenientemente as imprecisões e intratabilidades algorítmicas. Sistemas de Amplificação de Inteligência (SAI), que têm sua gênese nos Sistemas de Suporte à Tomada de Decisão (SSTD) e consideram a participação humana no circuito de resolução dos problemas, são capazes de suportar a tomada de decisão humana na resolução de problemas não estruturados. Para construir SAI, as técnicas e ferramentas das metodologias existentes de desenvolvimento de sistemas computacionais são necessárias, porém não suficientes. Este trabalho propõe uma metodologia para o desenvolvimento sistemático de SAI que estende o Processo Unificado de Desenvolvimento, adicionando a ele um fluxo principal de trabalho denominado Modelagem Cognitiva, que concentra-se em aspectos cognitivos dos agentes humanos que resolvem os problemas não estruturados existentes. Para ser capaz de modelar estes aspectos, a metodologia se baseia na teoria da semiótica de Charles Sanders Peirce. Como caso de estudo, é apresentada a aplicação do fluxo de Modelagem Cognitiva para desenvolver um Sistema de Amplificação Inteligência para suportar a resolução de um problema não estruturado do mundo real: o problema de estocagem e embarque de pelotas de minério-de-ferro de uma mineradora brasileira. Palavras-chave: Engenharia de Software ¿ Metodologia, Processo Decisório, Semiótica / Abstract: Wicked problems are problems which depend on unquantifiable, unmeasurable, imprecise or uncertain variables, which can depend on cultural, political, social, environmental and economic factors. ¿Optimizing¿ Systems, which depend heavily on computer logic and have unsatisfactory humancomputer interaction, often are uncapable of solving wicked problems, because they can not manipulate imprecision and algorithmic intractabilities based on a semantic processing. Intelligence Augmentation Systems (IAS), which have their genesis in Decision Support Systems (DSS) and consider humans in the loop of the problem resolution, are capable of supporting human decision making in solving wicked problems. Existing tools and techniques for developing computational systems are necessary but not suf- ficient to build IAS. This work proposes a software development process to systematically develop IAS which extends the Unified Software Development Process, adding to it one core workflow called Cognitive Modeling, which concentrates in the cognitive aspects of the human agents who solve the existing wicked problems. In order to be able to model these aspects, the methodology is based on the semiotic theory of Charles Sanders Peirce. We present as the case study the application of the core workflow Cognitive Modeling to build an IAS to support the decision making of a real world wicked problem: the stocking and shipping of iron ore pellets of a Brazilian mining company. Keywords: Software Engineering, Decision Support Systems, Intelligence Augmentation Systems, Wicked Problems, Computational Semiotics / Mestrado / Engenharia de Computação / Mestre em Engenharia Elétrica

O presente trabalho descreve a aplicação de um método de ajuste de modelo, com base em resultados experimentais obtidos em túnel de vento, a uma aeronave com sistema de aumento de estabilidade longitudinal (LSAS). O estudo inclui uma revisão de métodos para ajuste de modelos, o desenvolvimento do modelo matemático da aeronave e uma descrição dos ensaios em túnel de vento da aeronave com o LSAS. O sistema automático de controle é composto de (1) um sistema de aquisição de dados, que processa o sinal do sensor e envia um sinal de comando para o atuador; (2) um potenciômetro, usado como sensor de ângulo de arfagem; e (3) um servo motor, usado como atuador do canard. O modelo de aeronave é baseado no Grumman X-29, que tem asa de enflechamento negativo e canard. Sua margem de estabilidade estática pode ser ajustada mudando a posição do centro de rotação que, por sua vez, coincide com a posição do centro de gravidade da aeronave através de balanceamento do peso. O ajuste do modelo matemático do avião é conduzido, no ambiente Matlab/Simulink, com a modificação dos parâmetros das derivadas de estabilidade da aeronave, do filtro digital e da dinâmica do sensor e do atuador. O objetivo é obter uma correlação ótima entre resultados teóricos e experimentais. O método da análise da sensibilidade paramétrica é escolhido para o ajuste do modelo. Numa primeira fase do estudo, a comparação entre resultados experimentais e numéricos é feita com base nas freqüências e razões de amortecimento da variação do ângulo de arfagem em resposta a uma entrada do tipo impulso de deflexão do canard. Numa segunda fase a comparação é baseada diretamente na resposta no tempo do ângulo de arfagem numérico e experimental para a mesma entrada impulso do canard. Três posições do centro de gravidade são analisadas, uma em que a aeronave é estaticamente estável e duas em que ela é instável. Os resultados mostram grande variação dos parâmetros ajustados indicando a necessidade de aperfeiçoamento na implementação da metodologia utilizada. / The present work describes the application of a model updating method, based on experimental wind tunnel data to an aircraft longitudinal stability augmentation system (LSAS). The study includes a revision of model updating methods, the development of the aircraft mathematical model and the description of a previously conducted, aircraft LSAS wind tunnel testing. The LSAS is comprised by (1) a data acquisition system, which processes the sensor signal and sends the control command to the actuator; (2) a potentiometer, used as a pitch angle sensor; and (3) a servo motor, used to actuate canard deflection. The aircraft model is based on the Grumman X-29, which has canard and forward swept wing. Its static stability margin can be adjusted by changing the center of rotation position which, in turn, coincides with the aircraft center of gravity position through weight balance. The airplane mathematical model updating is carried out, in the Matlab/Simulink environment, by adjusting model parameters for aircraft stability derivatives, digital filter, sensor and servo dynamics. The objective is to obtain an optimal correlation between numerical and experimental results. The parametric sensitivity analysis method is chosen for model updating. In a first phase of the study the comparison between theoretical and experimental results is based on frequencies and damping ratios for aircraft pitch angle response to an impulse canard deflection input. In a second phase the comparison is based directly on experimental and numerical pitch angle time response to the same impulse canard deflection input. Three center of gravity positions are analyzed, one for which the aircraft is statically stable and two for which it is unstable. Results show large variations among adjusted parameters indicating the need for improvements in the implementation of the adopted methodology.

The chemical properties of calcium phosphate cements (CPCs) are very similar to the mineral phase of bone. CPCs are, consequently, very effective substrates (scaffolds) for tissue engineering; bone and stem cells attach readily, and can proliferate and differentiate to form new bone tissue. Unlike other CPCs that may remain largely unchanged in the body for years, such as hydroxyapatite, dicalcium phosphates are remodelled by the body and rapidly converted to new bone. Unfortunately, the dicalcium phosphates are also typically too weak to support load bearing in the human body. Our laboratory has recently developed a novel, high strength brushite CPC, (hsCPC), which can reach 10-50 fold higher failure strength than many commercially available CPCs. The aim of this thesis was to investigate the physical, chemical and biological performance of hsCPCs in physiologically relevant model of drug release, load bearing, osteoconductivity, and as a scaffold for bone tissue engineering. Multiple CPCs were compared in a model of screw augmentation to determine whether the physical properties of the cement, such as bulk strength and porosity, affected orthopedic screw holding strength. In an in vitro model of bone regeneration stem cells were grown on macroporous scaffolds that were fabricated from hsCPC. Drug releasing scaffolds were fabricated to examine whether the low porosity of hsCPC impeded drug release during a 4 week incubation period. The biological activity of an incorporated drug, Rebamipide, was examined after acute and chronic incubation periods. In the drug release study it was noted that the biological response to hsCPC was significantly better than tissue culture grade polystyrene, even in groups without drug. The mechanism underlying this biological response was further investigated by testing the effect of pyrophosphate, a common cement additive, on bone cell proliferation and differentiation. This thesis concludes that a high strength cement can produce significant improvement in screw augmentation strength, if there is sufficient cortical bone near the augmentation site. The hsCPC is also cytocompatible, and can support bone and stem cell proliferation and differentiation. hsCPC scaffolds stimulated osteogenic gene expression comparable to native bone scaffolds. hsCPC scaffolds are also capable of delivering drug for up to 4 weeks, in vitro. Finally, a cement additive, pyrophosphate, stimulated differentiation, but not proliferation of bone cells.

This paper develops and applies a Bayesian approach to Exploratory Factor Analysis that improves on ad hoc classical approaches. Our framework relies on dedicated factor models and simultaneously determines the number of factors, the allocation of each measurement to a unique factor, and the corresponding factor loadings. Classical identification criteria are applied and integrated into our Bayesian procedure to generate models that are stable and clearly interpretable. A Monte Carlo study confirms the validity of the approach. The method is used to produce interpretable low dimensional aggregates from a high dimensional set of psychological measurements. (authors' abstract)

No description available.