This thesis analyzes the debt dynamics of Turkey and assesses the sustainability of fisscal policy. The assessment of fiscal policy follows the methodology of Garcia and Rigobon (2004). This approach focuses on the concept of debt sustainability from a risk management perspective and incorporates the effects of stochastic shocks to the economy in its assessment. The results suggest that a continuation of the present fiscal stances will lead to a fiscal unsustainability in Turkey. Furthermore, the results indicate that the properties of the debt dynamics are closely related to the spreads on both dollar denominated debt and YTL denominated debt. This thesis also provides an application of two traditional methodologies, such as Wilcox&#039 / s (1989) methodology and Uctum and Wicken&#039 / s (2000) methodology in order to assess the fiscal sustainability of Turkey.

Virtually all methods of learning dynamic models from data start from the same basic assumption: that the learning algorithm will be provided with a single or multiple sequences of data generated from the dynamic model. However, in quite a few modern time series modeling tasks, the collection of reliable time series data turns out to be a major challenge, due to either slow progression of the dynamic process of interest, or inaccessibility of repetitive measurements of the same dynamic process over time. In most of those situations, however, we observe that it is easier to collect a large amount of non-sequence samples, or random snapshots of the dynamic process of interest without time information. This thesis aims to exploit such non-sequence data in learning a few widely used dynamic models, including fully observable, linear and nonlinear models as well as Hidden Markov Models (HMMs). For fully observable models, we point out several issues on model identifiability when learning from non-sequence data, and develop EM-type learning algorithms based on maximizing approximate likelihood. We also consider the setting where a small amount of sequence data are available in addition to non-sequence data, and propose a novel penalized least square approach that uses non-sequence data to regularize the model. For HMMs, we draw inspiration from recent advances in spectral learning of latent variable models and propose spectral algorithms that provably recover the model parameters, under reasonable assumptions on the generative process of non-sequence data and the true model. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first formal guarantee on learning dynamic models from non-sequence data. We also consider the case where little sequence data are available, and propose learning algorithms that, as in the fully observable case, use non-sequence data to provide regularization, but does so in combination with spectral methods. Experiments on synthetic data and several real data sets, including gene expression and cell image time series, demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed methods. In the last part of the thesis we return to the usual setting of learning from sequence data, and consider learning bi-clustered vector auto-regressive models, whose transition matrix is both sparse, revealing significant interactions among variables, and bi-clustered, identifying groups of variables that have similar interactions with other variables. Such structures may aid other learning tasks in the same domain that have abundant non-sequence data by providing better regularization in our proposed non-sequence methods.

The main purpose of this study is to empirically assess the relationship between inflation and economic growth in Ethiopia using quarterly dataset from 1992Q1 to 2010Q4. In doing so, an interesting policy issue arises. What is the threshold level of inflation for the Ethiopian economy? Based on the Engle-Granger and Johansen co-integration tests it is found out that there is a positive long-run relationship between inflation and economic growth. The error correction models show that in cases of short-run disequilibrium, the inflation model adjusts itself to its long-run path correcting roughly 40% of the imbalance in each quarter. In addition, based on the conditional least square technique, the estimated threshold model suggests 10% as the optimal level of inflation that facilitates growth. An inflation level higher or lower than the threshold level of inflation affects the economic growth negatively and hence fiscal and monetary policy coordination is vital to keep inflation at the threshold. / Economics / M. Com. (Economics)

China's economic development has performed spectacularly during the period of China's economic transition as a result of radical economic reform in the all markets. The country has also gone through extensive fiscal reforms in the last three decades. However, a number of problems have been associated with such rapid economic growth. One of these has been raising inequality. In both Keynesian and neoclassical endogenous growth theories, public spending can play an important role for economic growth and inequality. The majority of previous studies have focused on the relationship between public spending and economic growth, or between public spending and inequality separately. There is no doubt that public spending has an effect on both economic growth and equity simultaneously. In this respect, this thesis attempts to address the problems that have emerged during the period of China's fiscal reforms, and seeks to examine the effects of public spending on economic growth and equality in the same model. This thesis investigates the dynamic relationships among these three variables in China. For aggregate national data, vector error correction model (VECM) has been used. Analysis at the provincial level is based on the panel vector auto-regression (PVAR) model. These methods help to solve the endogeneity in estimations. The national level analysis indicates that total public spending shows a long term Granger causality with GDP per capita, which supports the positive growth effect of public spending in the Keynesian and endogenous growth model. Social public spending has a negative effect on real output per capita in both the short term and long term, but it also has a negative impact on income inequality. Moreover, we find that a higher level of real GDP per capita will increase the level of inequality, but a higher level of inequality has a negative effect on real GDP per capita in the long term. Furthermore, total provincial public spending and provincial social spending have either a non-significant effect on economic growth. On the other hand, the SOEs' investment has a significant, positive growth effect at both the national and provincial level. As for the redistributive role of the public spending, the provincial total public spending and social spending have played an important role on income distribution. Furthermore, the Gini coefficient has a positive effect on the per capita growth rate at the provincial level, but the economic growth has no significant impact on the Gini coefficient.

The main purpose of this study is to empirically assess the relationship between inflation and economic growth in Ethiopia using quarterly dataset from 1992Q1 to 2010Q4. In doing so, an interesting policy issue arises. What is the threshold level of inflation for the Ethiopian economy? Based on the Engle-Granger and Johansen co-integration tests it is found out that there is a positive long-run relationship between inflation and economic growth. The error correction models show that in cases of short-run disequilibrium, the inflation model adjusts itself to its long-run path correcting roughly 40% of the imbalance in each quarter. In addition, based on the conditional least square technique, the estimated threshold model suggests 10% as the optimal level of inflation that facilitates growth. An inflation level higher or lower than the threshold level of inflation affects the economic growth negatively and hence fiscal and monetary policy coordination is vital to keep inflation at the threshold. / Economics / M. Com. (Economics)

The dissertation dealt with the interaction between the macro-economy and financial markets. In the first part of the dissertation I laid down a general case for macro-based active asset allocation. In the main part of my dissertation, after a theoretical introduction to term structure models and macrofinance models, I developed a VAR macrofinance model of the term structure of interest rates for the Czech economy based on the dynamic interpretation of the Nelson-Siegel model, and showed the use of such modeling framework in bond-yield prediction and asset allocation.

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Atenciosamente, Débora. on 2018-03-27T16:19:57Z (GMT) / Submitted by Olegário Araújo (olegarioaraujo@gmail.com) on 2018-03-28T03:07:34Z No. of bitstreams: 1 FGV_EAESP_MCD_master_thesis_Olegario_Araujo_23_03_18.pdf: 1414422 bytes, checksum: 434b8d8205dce32e92e2acfbc9249916 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Debora Nunes Ferreira (debora.nunes@fgv.br) on 2018-03-28T15:46:20Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 FGV_EAESP_MCD_master_thesis_Olegario_Araujo_23_03_18.pdf: 1414422 bytes, checksum: 434b8d8205dce32e92e2acfbc9249916 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Isabele Garcia (isabele.garcia@fgv.br) on 2018-03-28T18:04:47Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 FGV_EAESP_MCD_master_thesis_Olegario_Araujo_23_03_18.pdf: 1414422 bytes, checksum: 434b8d8205dce32e92e2acfbc9249916 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-03-28T18:04:47Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 FGV_EAESP_MCD_master_thesis_Olegario_Araujo_23_03_18.pdf: 1414422 bytes, checksum: 434b8d8205dce32e92e2acfbc9249916 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-02-27 / Emerging markets are considered relevant for international manufacturers and retailers to grow their turnovers. In order to achieve their goals, manufacturers and retailers are executing different initiatives to attract new customers such as in-store promotions. However, both in the US and here in Brazil, the results of these actions are questioned. Retailers are also investing in their Private Labels (PLs), which can alter the competitive dynamics within the categories. In the United States and Europe, studies were conducted to assess in-store promotions, impulses and responses in short-term and long-term sales for National Brands (NBs) and also Private Labels (PLs). The research question of this study was to evaluate if in Brazil, an emerging market, the attractiveness of Weighted Distribution, Price and Promotions of National Brands and Private Labels provide similar responses to the impulses. In order to evaluate if the impulses provide long-term residual effects for National Brands (NBs) and Private Labels (PLs), Vectors of Auto Regression (VAR) model was used in a continuous panel of self-service food stores in Greater São Paulo, which is the main metropolitan region of Brazil. The databases by categories (powdered coffee, biscuit, and ready-to-serve fruit juice) contained information of 25 months (November 2013 to November 2015) for each variable (Weighted Distribution, Price and Promotions), by NBs and PLs. The result of this study points out that there is a difference in responses to the impulses (distribution, price, and promotions) between NBs and PLs. National Brands (NBs) showed a greater number of situations with positive residual effects on long-term sales. However, the long-term response on sales occurred only for less than the half of the total potential situations. In other words, more than half of the total potential situations give an absence of statistical significance. The study indicates that there are retailers developing differentiated actions with Private Labels and obtaining, in their sales, positive long-term residual effects. Although modestly, this study contributes to the retail literature by using an econometric model (VAR) to analyze the impulse in some in-store attractiveness variables their long-term sales response to NBs and PLs in an emerging market. In short, the main contribution from the observations of the analyzed categories is that it is possible to Private Label compete without price sensibility and also positioning PL above the average price of the category/segment. The results also suggest that there is an opportunity to review the modus operandi of in-store promotion to get better results. / Mercados emergentes são importantes para as receitas totais de fabricantes e varejistas internacionais. Estudos de companhias globais de pesquisa, que atuam no Brasil, apontam que os investimentos em ações promocionais no ponto-de-venda, pelas Marcas de Fabricantes, aumentaram, mas há questionamentos quanto ao retorno destas iniciativas. Os varejistas também têm investido em Marcas Próprias. Nos Estados Unidos e Europa há vários estudos sobre o estímulos dentro do ponto-de-venda para as Marcas dos Fabricantes e Marcas Próprias e o impacto nas vendas no curto e longo prazo. O objetivo central deste estudo é avaliar se, em um mercado emergente, o nivel de atratividade das ações realizadas pelas Marcas de Fabricantes e Marcas Próprias dentro das lojas proporcionam respostas similares de curto e longo prazo aos impulsos realizados. Para analisar os efeitos destes impulsos foi utilizado o modelo de Vetores de Auto Regressão (VAR) em um painel continuo de lojas de autosserviço alimentar, na principal região metropolitana do Brasil, a Grande São Paulo. As bases de dados por categoria (Café em Pó, Biscoito e Suco Pronto para Consumo), continham informações de 25 meses (novembro de 2013 à novembro de 2015), com dados de distribuição ponderada, preço e promoções, O resultado deste estudo aponta que há diferenças entre Marcas de Fabricantes e Marcas Próprias nas respostas de longo prazo aos estímulos promocionais. Embora as Marcas de Fabricantes tenham apresentado um maior número de situações com efeitos residuais positivos nas vendas de longo prazo do que as Marcas Próprias, apenas menos da metade das situações apresentaram resultados de longo prazo. O estudo também sinaliza que há varejistas desenvolvendo ações diferenciadas com Marcas Próprias e obtendo, em suas vendas, efeitos residuais positivos de longo prazo, na mesma intensidade das Marcas de Fabricantes. Embora de forma modesta, esta pesquisa contribui para a literatura ao utilizar um modelo econométrico (VAR) para analisar os impulsos aplicados em distribuição, preço e promoção das Marcas dos Fabricantes e das Marcas Próprias em um mercado emergente. A principal contribuição deste estudo, a partir das categorias analisadas, é que a Marca Própria, não necessariamente, precisa atuar apenas com um posicionamento de preço baixo e/ou reduzir preços para competir dentro da categoria ou segmento no qual está inserida. Além disto, o estudo também sugere que as há espaço para rever as práticas promocionais ou até operacionais, considerando o baixo retorno proporcionado para Marcas de Fabricantes e Marcas Próprias.

Magister Commercii - MCom / The objective of this study is to investigate the empirical relationship between exports and economic growth in order to ascertain whether the hypothesis of export-led growth is valid in the case of South Africa. This study has not only focused on sectoral exports for the period 1990-2011; but it has also examined total exports for the period extending from 1970 to 2011. Using quarterly data and time series econometric techniques of co-integration and Granger-causality tests over the two set of periods, the key findings of the study are as follows: (i) At the aggregate level (using total exports): the technique of co-integration suggests that total exports and GDP moved together in the long-run, though deviations from the steady state might happen in the short-run. Furthermore, Granger causality tests inferred from the Vector Error Correction model reveal that the direction of causality between export and GDP growth is bidirectional. (ii) At the sectoral level (using the main component of exports): export-growth link emerges as a long-run behavioural relationship since a co-integrating relation was found among output and agricultural, manufactured and mining exports. This relationship demonstrates that manufactured exports have the greatest positive impact on output growth. (iii) Sectoral level Granger-causality tests based on ECM reveal the existence of a long run causality running from manufactured exports to GDP; whereas the short-run causality runs from manufactured and mining exports to GDP. However, the Toda-Yamamoto Granger test confirms only short-run causality from manufactured exports to GDP. In both cases, there is evidence of a uni-directional causality from exports to GDP.The above results show that the hypothesis of export-led growth is valid for South Africa. This implies that exports, particularly manufactured and mining exports play a key role in driving economic growth. Hence, the key policy implication of these results is that, measures which aim at stimulating production for exports and shifting the content of exports will meaningfully contribute to the improvement of GDP growth and employment prospects in South Africa.

Housing is both a durable good and an investment vehicle, which makes it importantin people’s daily life aswell as for a nation’s economy. This thesis innovatively applies the Sharpe ratio on evaluating the performance of the US residentialhousing market within the time period from 2005:Q1 to 2019:Q3, andinvestigates how this performance would react upon macroeconomic shocks,including sudden changes in GDP growth rate and personal income growthrate, by establishing a vector auto-regression model with the lag order of four.The main results are that: (1)in the long run, direct residential investments are not significantly more profitable than treasury bills but not disappointing compared to the market portfolio of Dow Jones Industrial Average; (2)the performance of residential investments seem to slightly and positively co-move withGDP and personal income growth rate; (3)the long-term impacts that sudden GDP and personal income growths have on the performance seem inconspicuous and tend to mitigate within about three years and (4) limited evidence supports the hypothesis that current housing market performance can help predictfuture GDP growth rate. Based on housing’s two purpose of consumption andinvestment and the empirical results showing that direct investments on residentialproperties have similar risk-adjusted return level to short-term treasurybills, I suggest that financially feasible households purchase their own houseinstead of renting for a long time, and that speculative investors avoid puttingmoney in residential properties unless they have access to inside information. / Bostäder kan betraktas både som en hållbar vara och som ett investeringsinstrument.De är essentiella för människors vardag och har en viktig roll förett lands ekonomi. Denna avhandling använder innovativt Sharpe-förhållandet för att utvärdera hur den amerikanska bostadsmarknaden presterade under perioden2005: kvartal 1 till 2019: kvartal 3. Den försöker även undersöka om denna prestation påverkas av makroekonomiska chocker inklusive plötsligaförändringar i BNP-tillväxttakt och personliga inkomsttillväxthastighet. Detta görs genom att upprätta en vektor autoregression modell med en fördröjningsordningför fyra. De viktigaste resultaten är att: (1) på långsikt är direktabostadsinvesteringar inte betydligt mer lönsamma än statsskuldväxlar dock är det hellre inte en besvikelse jämfört med en marknadsportföljen av Dow JonesIndustrial Average; (2) Prestationen av bostadsinvesteringar verkar vara svagt och samverkar positivit både med BNP och tillväxttakten för personinkomst.(3) De långsiktiga effekterna av plötsliga tillväxter av BNP och personliga inkomster har på utvecklingen verkar vara vaga och tenderar att mildra inomcirka tre år och (4) begränsade bevis stöder hypotesen om att nuvarande bostadsmarknadsresultat kan bidra till att förutsäga framtida BNP-tillväxttakten.Baserat på bostädernas två syften inom konsumtion och investeringar, visar deempiriska resultaten att direkta investeringar i bostadsfastigheter har en liknande riskjusterad avkastningsnivå som kortfristiga statsskuldväxla. Därför föreslår jag att ekonomisk stabila hushåll borde köpa ett eget hus istället för att hyraunder en lång tid, och att spekulativa investerare borde undvika att satsa pengar inom bostadsfastigheter såvida de inte har tillgång till insider-information.

As urban population across the globe increases, the demand for adequate transportation grows. Several strategies have been suggested as a solution to the congestion which results from this high demand outpacing the existing supply of transportation facilities. High –Occupancy Toll (HOT) lanes have become increasingly more popular as a feature on today’s highway system. The I-95 Express HOT lane in Miami Florida, which is currently being expanded from a single Phase (Phase I) into two Phases, is one such HOT facility. With the growing abundance of such facilities comes the need for indepth study of demand patterns and development of an appropriate pricing scheme which reduces congestion. This research develops a method for dynamic pricing on the I-95 HOT facility such as to minimize total travel time and reduce congestion. We apply non-linear programming (NLP) techniques and the finite difference stochastic approximation (FDSA), genetic algorithm (GA) and simulated annealing (SA) stochastic algorithms to formulate and solve the problem within a cell transmission framework. The solution produced is the optimal flow and optimal toll required to minimize total travel time and thus is the system-optimal solution. We perform a comparative evaluation of FDSA, GA and SA non-linear programming algorithms used to solve the NLP and the ANOVA results show that there are differences in the performance of the NLP algorithms in solving this problem and reducing travel time. We then conclude by demonstrating that econometric iv forecasting methods utilizing vector autoregressive (VAR) techniques can be applied to successfully forecast demand for Phase 2 of the 95 Express which is planned for 2014