The repo rate, which is the key interest rate, set by the central banks has been declining for many years and hitting zero in Sweden in late 2014. We analyse the effectiveness on the economy from a change in the repo rate, comparing two time periods with high and low repo rate environments. We use quarterly data on GDP and its components, between 1994 and 2019. For analysing the effectiveness, we use multiple Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) modelling to compute a total of 12 models. In our findings, we saw that the effectiveness of a change in repo rate has been increased in the low repo rate environment, making it harder to increase the rate without harming the economy but also increasing the effect of a decrease in the repo rate. Also, we found that the investment component of GDP may exhibit extra high effectiveness in the low repo rate environment. This method of analysing the repo rates impact on the economy could be used for decision makers regarding monetary policies.

The causal relationship between financial development and economic growth is a controversial issue. For developing countries, empirical studies have provided mixed result. This study seeks to empirically explore the relationship and the causal link between financial development and economic growth in two sub-Saharan African countries between 1970 and 2006. The empirical investigation is carried out using time methods and the five most commonly used indicators of financial development in the literature. However, the causal relationship was carried out using two different methods which are the autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing (ARDL) and the vector error correction model (VECM). Using this above methodology the study first found that in both countries there is a positive and long-term relationship between all the indicators of financial development and economic growth which was proxied by the real per capita GDP. With respect to the causality test, the two methods used provide mixed results especially in South Africa. In Cameroon the study found that financial development causes economic growth using the two methods, whereas in South Africa economic growth causes financial development when the VECM method is used, while there is an independence relationship between the two variables in South Africa when using ARDL. / Economics / M.Comm. (Economics)

Net energy exporting countries (NEECs) and net energy importing countries (NEICs) depend on each other for mutual gains. However, NEICs pursue strategic policies to reduce consumption of energy from conventional sources and increase that of renewable energy in order to attain energy security and macro environmental and carbon accountability. On the other hand, NEECs such as Nigeria depend heavily on oil and gas exports to NEICs to generate revenue. As a result of this inter-dependent relationship, this PhD project adopts a dependency theory and strategic issue analysis framework to underpin the study. Accordingly, the study approach is founded on the ideas of pluralism as a social reality and adopted pragmatism as the research approach. Consistent with these approaches, the study was undertaken by analysing both secondary and primary data, including macro-economic statistics of annual time-series dataset (1980-2014) and semi-structured interviews respectively. The quantitative part of the project used Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds testing approach. This method was used to investigate and analyse the effect of renewable energy consumption and carbon emissions reduction on Nigeria’s oil and gas exports. The qualitative part involved interviews with twenty senior government officials in Nigeria from six selected Federal Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs), representatives of civil society groups and academicians, to support the quantitative results and answer certain research questions. The short-run quantitative results and qualitative findings show that renewable energy consumption in developed NEICs affects Nigeria’s oil and gas exports. However, the reverse holds true for emerging NEICs. Both the quantitative results and the qualitative findings show that carbon emissions reduction in developed NEICs affects Nigerian oil and gas exports in the long run. Also, the quantitative results show that renewable energy consumption in developed and emerging NEICs does not affect Nigerian oil and gas exports in the long run. However, the qualitative findings only support the quantitative results for emerging NEICs but do not support those of developed NEICs. Similarly, the qualitative findings indicate that other external and internal factors such as discovery of shale oil and gas; improvement in energy efficient technologies; the use of long-term contract in other NEECs; stringent nature of the Nigerian Content Law and lack of passage of the Petroleum Industry Bill amongst others currently contribute in affecting Nigeria’s oil and gas exports. Moreover, the qualitative findings show that global energy transition has an impact on the Nigeria’s oil and gas revenue, savings made to the Nigerian Sovereign Wealth Fund, budget financing and will continue to affect Nigerian revenue and budget if the economy remains undiversified. Finally, the qualitative findings indicate that global energy transition has negatively affected Foreign Direct Investment flow into Nigerian petroleum industry and discoveries of new oil and gas reserves. These findings have several implications. Firstly, Nigerian oil and gas exports are affected by the carbon emissions control regime, which makes future oil and gas revenues uncertain; thereby putting pressure on budget financing and socio-economic growth and development. On this note, there is the need for Nigeria to take cautionary position in the global climate change debate in order not to adversely affect the country’s economic interest. Secondly, the consumption of energy from renewable sources in both developed and emerging NEICs is an opportunity for Nigeria to export not only its conventional energy but also renewable energy if commercially harnessed. This suggests that Nigerian should also invest heavily in renewable energy production. Thirdly, the major findings of this study provide evidence in support of the relevance of dependency theory and strategic issue analysis framework within the context of energy transition in NEICs on one hand, and Nigerian oil and gas exports to these countries on the other. This implies the need for Nigeria to focus on developing internal market trajectories to increase domestic utilisation of its conventional energy rather than being dependent on external markets for the sale of the nation’s energy resources.

The causal relationship between financial development and economic growth is a controversial issue. For developing countries, empirical studies have provided mixed result. This study seeks to empirically explore the relationship and the causal link between financial development and economic growth in two sub-Saharan African countries between 1970 and 2006. The empirical investigation is carried out using time methods and the five most commonly used indicators of financial development in the literature. However, the causal relationship was carried out using two different methods which are the autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing (ARDL) and the vector error correction model (VECM). Using this above methodology the study first found that in both countries there is a positive and long-term relationship between all the indicators of financial development and economic growth which was proxied by the real per capita GDP. With respect to the causality test, the two methods used provide mixed results especially in South Africa. In Cameroon the study found that financial development causes economic growth using the two methods, whereas in South Africa economic growth causes financial development when the VECM method is used, while there is an independence relationship between the two variables in South Africa when using ARDL. / Economics / M.Comm. (Economics)

外人直接投資（foreign direct investment, FDI）在經濟理論中是相當熱門的議題，它代表了讓地主國（host country）國資本累積、技術進步在短時間內快速增加的可能，因此許多國家往往會採取某些吸引外資的政策，再搭配國內制度或是貿易政策的改變，以追求經濟成長。然而，外來直接投資對地主國可能產生的所得重分配的影響，本文即是對此做一深入探討，並以台灣製造業資料來研究外來直接投資是否會擴大工資不均等的情形。 研究期間從1981～2004年共24年，依產業特性將製造業分為十大類，分別採取兩種不同的迴歸模型，包括自我迴歸落遲分配模型（auto regressive distributed lag model, ARDL model）與縱橫資料（panel data）迴歸模型等。實證模型上由生產理論出發，選擇作為解釋工資不均等的變數包括外人直接投資比例、出口比例、進口比例及產出成長率等四個變數。由實證結果得到以下結論： （1）就個別產業來看，FDI對台灣製造業工資不均等的影響並不一致，反應出產業特性不同，FDI所扮演的角色也不盡相同。其中FDI會惡化皮革與毛皮製造業的工資不均等情形，減輕橡膠及塑膠製品製造業與非金屬製品製造業的工資不均等情形，對其他製造業則是無明顯影響。 （2）就整體製造業的情形來看， FDI對工資的不均等的淨效果為正，但效果不大；出口、產出成長率有輕微使工資不均等擴大的情形，而進口則是可輕微縮減工資不均等的狀況。 （3）若是將十大製造業依產品特性區分為「民生」、「化學」、「機械」電子等三大工業，則可以發現FDI對民生工業有明顯擴大工資不均等的情形，在其他兩大工業則是無顯著影響。