From efficient market theory we know that there is no such a thing as a free lunch. If you want higher returns then you also have to take on higher risk. The critical question technical analysis has to answer therefore becomes, does technical analysis (TA) provide an investor with an edge in the stock market? To answer this question empirically data was investigated for the Standard and Poor’s-500 Index for a twenty years time period from 1986 to 2006. Two different portfolios were constructed. The portfolios were named Hugin with a high time resolution a Munin with a lower time resolution. A simple 30 period MA cross strategy with optimized stop-losses were tested on the two portfolios. The stop-losses were optimized on the first ten years 1986-1996 in order to make the backtesting more realistic. The conclusion was that neither Hugin nor did Munin produce abnormal returns without the optimized stop losses. When the stop losses were optimized, Hugin but not Munin provided an investor with slightly better return than a long position. However Hugin’s returns were highly sensitive to the assumed level of price slippage and transaction costs. The conclusion to be drawn is therefore that investing based only on a simple 30 periods moving average crossover investment strategy seams not to be the best way to manage hard-earned money.

<p>From efficient market theory we know that there is no such a thing as a free lunch. If you want higher returns then you also have to take on higher risk. The critical question technical analysis has to answer therefore becomes, does technical analysis (TA) provide an investor with an edge in the stock market? To answer this question empirically data was investigated for the Standard and Poor’s-500 Index for a twenty years time period from 1986 to 2006.</p><p>Two different portfolios were constructed. The portfolios were named Hugin with a high time resolution a Munin with a lower time resolution. A simple 30 period MA cross strategy with optimized stop-losses were tested on the two portfolios. The stop-losses were optimized on the first ten years 1986-1996 in order to make the backtesting more realistic.</p><p>The conclusion was that neither Hugin nor did Munin produce abnormal returns without the optimized stop losses. When the stop losses were optimized, Hugin but not Munin provided an investor with slightly better return than a long position. However Hugin’s returns were highly sensitive to the assumed level of price slippage and transaction costs. The conclusion to be drawn is therefore that investing based only on a simple 30 periods moving average crossover investment strategy seams not to be the best way to manage hard-earned money.</p>

This thesis contains work from the author's papers Palsson and Sovine (2020); Iosevich, Palsson, and Sovine (2022); and Palsson and Sovine (2022) with coauthors Eyvindur Palsson and Alex Iosevich. These works establish new $L^p$-improving, quasi-Banach, and sparse bounds for several bilinear and multilinear operators that generalize the linear spherical average to the multilinear setting, and maximal variants of these operators, with an emphasis on the triangle averaging operator and the bilinear spherical averaging operator. / Doctor of Philosophy / This thesis establishes new regularity properties for several mathematical operations that generalize the operation of taking the average of a function over a sphere to operations that average the product of several input functions over a surface to produce a single output function. These operations include the triangle averaging operator, the $k$-simplex averaging operators for $k$ an integer greater than 1, and the bilinear spherical averaging operator, as well as maximal operators obtained by allowing the radius of the averaging surface to vary over some range of values.

In this thesis, convergence of time averages near statistical attractors of continuous flows are investigated. A relation between statistical attractor and essential Ω-limit set is proved, and using this a general definition for statistical attractor is given. Sufficient conditions are given for an observable to admit a convergent time average along the orbits of the flow. The general results are applied to flows on a torus, and in particular to systems of coupled phase oscillators that admit attracting heteroclinic networks in their phase space. A particular heteroclinic network that we call heteroclinic ratchet is observed and analysed in detail. Heteroclinic ratchets give rise to a novel phenomenon, unidirectional desynchronization of oscillators (ratcheting). The results obtained about the convergence of time averages near statistical attractors implies that heteroclinic ratchets induce, besides its other interesting consequences, frequency synchronization without phase synchronization. Different coupling structures that can give rise to ratcheting of oscillators are also investigated.

The purpose of this diploma thesis is a testing of utilization of the indicators for technical analysis on selected equities from SPAD. The main aim of this thesis is to answer whether the trading based on the indicators of technical analysis could be profitable particularly for an ordinary investor in the time of the financial crises. For this purpose there were used equity rates for ČEZ, Komerční banka, Philip Morris ČR and Telefónica O2C.R.. Analyzed period is divided into two parts. Parameters of the indicators are tested in the first period from 2002 to 2006 and the calculated optimized parameters are used in the second period from 2002 to March of 2009.

Nosso objetivo com este trabalho é contribuir para o aperfeiçoamento da ação educativa do professor de matemática na Educação Básica, tanto em formação inicial quanto em formação continuada. Apresentamos algumas abordagens elementares para estudo de Máximos e Mínimos que utilizam conteúdos próprios dos anos finais do Ensino Fundamental e do Ensino Médio embasados principalmente na obra Maxima and Minima without Calculus (NIVEN, 1981). Discutimos os conceitos de Conhecimento Especializado e de Horizontes de Conteúdo Matemático como justificativa para a relevância do uso deste material, que foram cunhados por pesquisadores da Universidade de Michigan, liderados por Deborah Ball no artigo Content Knowledge for Teaching: What Makes it Special? (2008). Trazemos uma análise crítica da abordagem utilizada para o tema em alguns livros didáticos de Ensino Médio. Discorremos sobre os quatro conceitos de Médias aritmética, geométrica, harmônica e quadrática partindo de problemas que originaram tais conceitos. Mostramos ainda como podem ser naturalmente associados a medidas de segmentos definidos em quadrados, trapézios e semicírculos que evidenciam claramente certas desigualdades entre elas. A seguir, como aplicação de produtos notáveis e trinômios do segundo grau, apresentamos problemas algébricos e geométricos envolvendo máximos e mínimos e discutimos suas soluções. Estabelecemos e provamos algebricamente as desigualdades entre as quatro médias (de até quatro números positivos), que são aplicadas para a determinação de pontos de máximo ou mínimo de funções variadas em problemas contextualizados. Por fim generalizamos e provamos as desigualdades entre as médias para n números positivos e desenvolvemos várias outras aplicações. / This work intends to be a contribution to the improvement of the educational action of mathematics school teachers in both initial or continuous formation. We present some elementary approaches for the study of Maxima and Minima that use final years of Elementary and High School contents only, mainly based on Ivan Nivens book Maxima and Minima without Calculus (NIVEN, 1981). We discuss the concepts of Specialized and Horizons Knowledge of Mathematical Content as a justification for the relevance of the use of this material, which were been introducted by the University of Michigans researchers, led by Deborah Ball, in the article - Content Knowledge for Teaching: What Makes it Special? (2008). We bring a critical analysis of the approach employed for the topic (maxima and minima) in some high school textbooks. We discuss the four concepts of averages - arithmetic, geometric, harmonic and quadratic - starting from problems that originated them. We also show how they can be naturally associated with measures of segments defined in squares, trapezoids and semicircles so that we can clearly visualise certains inequalities between them. Next, as an application of notable products and of second degree trinomials, we present algebraic and geometric problems of maxima or minima and discuss their solutions. We establish and prove algebraically the inequalities between the four averages (up to four positive numbers), which are applied to determine maximum or minimum points of varied functions in contextualized problems. Finally we generalize and prove the averages inequalities for n positive numbers and we develop several applications.

Este trabalho teve como objetivo avaliar o uso do método das médias móveis na atomização de cádmio, crômio e chumbo utilizando filamento de tungstênio de 150 W (OSRAM) como atomizador eletrotérmico. Realizou-se um estudo sistemático da influência da altura de observação, da temperatura e taxa de aquecimento na atomização dos analitos e a viabilidade do uso do método das médias móveis no tratamento dos sinais transientes gerados na atomização. O estudo da influência da altura de observação foi realizado posicionado-se o filamento no centro (0 mm), 1 e 2 mm abaixo do feixe de radiação. A influência da temperatura e da taxa de aquecimento foi estudada utilizando temperaturas na etapa de atomização entre 1890 e 2780 °C. O método das médias móveis foi aplicado aos sinais transientes gerados na atomização, com o filamento posicionado no centro (0 mm), 1 e 2 mm e com temperatura de atomização entre 2060 e 2780 °C, utilizando fatores 0, 3, 5, 7 e 9. No estudo da temperatura e da taxa de aquecimento foram aplicadas ddps no software de controle na etapa de atomização entre 4 e 12 V. As soluções usadas no desenvolvimento deste trabalho foram preparadas em meio 0,1 % v/v HNO3. Utilizou-se como gás de proteção a mistura de 90% Ar+10 % H2. Para o cádmio, recomenda-se a utilização da altura de observação de 1 mm, para o chumbo recomenda-se 0 mm e para o crômio a altura recomendada é a de 2 mm. Os estudos comprovaram a dependência dos sinais de absorção atômica em altura de pico com a temperatura e a taxa de aquecimento. O cádmio foi o analito em que a taxa de aquecimento foi a menos crítica para a atomização, enquanto que o crômio foi o mais afetado pela variação da taxa de aquecimento. Não foi observada diferença significativa entre os sinais de cádmio com alturas de observação de 0 e 1 mm. Para o chumbo, a diferença entre os sinais com altura de observação de 0 e 1 mm foi constante em todas as taxas de aquecimento estudadas. A 2 mm a diferença entre os sinais aumentou com o aumento da taxa de aquecimento. Para o crômio, não ocorreu uma diferença significativa entre os sinais nas alturas de 1 e 2 mm com atomização até 2180 °C. Nos três analitos a sensibilidade aumentou com o aumento da taxa de aquecimento. O método das médias móveis permitiu a diminuição da variação dos sinais transientes do branco e do ruído. Para o cádmio, não ocorreu uma melhora no limite de detecção do método com a aplicação das médias móveis em nenhuma condição. Para o chumbo e crômio, ocorreu uma melhora no limite de detecção do método nas alturas de observação de 0 e 1 mm. O limite de detecção instrumental apresentou uma melhora significativa para os três elementos em todas as condições estudadas. / The aim of this paper was to evaluate the use of moving averages of cadmium, chromium and lead transient atomic absorption signals generated by 150 W (OSRAM) tungsten coil electrothermal atomizer. A systematic study dealing with the influence of observation height, temperature and heating rate on atomization was carried through in order to demonstrate the viability of moving averages in the treatment of the transient signals during the atomization step. The influence of observation height was carried out with the tungsten coil in the center (0 mm), at 1 and 2 mm below the radiation beam. The influence of atomization temperature and heating rate were evaluated between 1890 °C (3.3 K.ms-1) and 2780 °C (9,3 K.ms-1). The transient moving averages were obtained by using factors 0, 3, 5, 7 and 9, with the tungsten coil in the center (0 mm), 1 and 2 mm and with atomization between 2060 and 2780 °C. For obtaining different temperatures and heating rates, an appropriate power supply was used by applying 4 to 12 V (40 to 120 W) to the atomizer during atomization and a mixture 90% Ar+10% H2 was used as purge/atomization gas. Blanks and reference solutions were prepared in 0,1% v/v HNO3. Best results for cadmium were obtained at 1 mm. For lead it is recommended 0 mm and for chromium 2 mm. The studies had proven the dependence of peak height absorbance signals with temperature and heating rate. Cadmium was the analyte where the heating rate was to less critical for the atomization, whereas chromium was affected by the variation of the heating rate. Significant differences were not observed between cadmium signals with observation heights of 0 and 1 mm. For lead, the difference between the absorbance signals with observation heights of 0 and 1 mm were constant in all tested heating rates. At 2 mm the difference between signals increased by increasing the heating rates. For chromium, a significant difference was not noticed between peak height absorbance signals at 1 and 2 mm with up to 2180 °C. As expected, sensitivity increased for all three analytes by increasing the heating rate. The moving average is a powerful mathematical treatment for minimizing unpredictable fluctuations of the base line during the chosen time interval for measuring the transient absorbance signals. With the exception of Cd, where no improvements on the method detection limit were noticed, the application of the moving average for the lead and chromium showed 3 to 4 fold improvement in the LDmet at 0 and 1 mm observation heights, respectively. The LDinstr presented a significant improvement (3 to 6 fold) for the three analytes in all studied conditions.

Apesar do reconhecimento da relevante contribuição epidemiológica dos registros de condenação em abatedouros, é escassa a divulgação sobre estudos referentes às circunstâncias relacionadas com as apreensões em matadouros de frangos. Avaliaram-se dez anos de registros oficiais de condenação em um abatedouro sob inspeção federal no Estado de São Paulo, obtendo-se informações a respeito de 24 causas de apreensão. Análises de tendência, sazonalidade e de componente cíclico foram efetuadas para 21 variáveis. Isto é discutido frente às dificuldades na obtenção sistemática e fidedigna de dados, propondo-se a utilização de programas informatizados para análise dos registros mensais em tempo real, o que possibilita a reavaliação dos programas de controle para as enfermidades desencadeantes das apreensões. Abordaram-se aspectos legislativos da inspeção de aves, enfocando limitações internacionais e particularidades de alguns processos patológicos, sugerindo adequação em determinados procedimentos sanitários. Destacou-se a comparação de dados locais com apreensões de vários países e o impacto interpretativo de diferentes metodologias de análise na concepção das ocorrências. As avaliações permitiram concluir que abordagens informatizadas para sazonalidade e ciclicidade nas séries temporais de apreensões podem incrementar o poder da verificação de programas HACCP. Além disso, observou-se maior poder para revelação de padrões, pela associação dos dois tipos de análise. / There is a lack of studies for circumstances related to poultry abattoir condemnations, despite its wide recognition as a relevant source of epidemiological information. Ten year official condemnation records were issued for one federal inspected slaughterhouse in São Paulo State, Brazil, gathering data about 24 condemnation causes. Global, seasonal and cyclical trends were evaluated for 21 variables, which were further debated concerning trouble reporting of systematic reliable data. Furthermore, the study suggests software packages utilization for real-time monthly data analysis, which in turn leads to control schedules reevaluation for condemnation disease determinants. Legislative approach to poultry inspection, focusing on international limitations and pathological process features were asked for sanitary procedures adequacy. The local and several countries data comparison, besides different analytical methodology impact were highlighted. The conclusion assigns that time series seasonal and cyclical computerized analysis can enhance HACCP\'s verification power and better reveal patterns when combined.

Buildings have a significant impact on the environment due to the energy required for the manufacture of construction materials. The method of assessing the energy embodied in a product is known as energy analysis. Detailed office building embodied energy case studies are very rare. However, there is evidence to suggest that the energy requirements for the construction phase of commercial buildings, including the energy embodied in materials, is a significant component of the life cycle energy requirements. This thesis sets out to examine the current state of energy analysis, determine the national average energy intensities < i.e. embodied energy rates < for building materials and assess the significance of using national average energy intensities for the energy analysis of a case study office building. Likely ranges of variation in the building material embodied energy rates from the national averages are estimated and the resulting distribution for total embodied energy in the case study building simulated. Strategies for improving the energy analysis methods and data are suggested. Detailed energy analysis is shown to be a useful indicative method of quantifying the energy required for the construction of buildings.

Economic stringencies have compelled Canadian hospitals to examine their administrative effectiveness critically. Improved supplies and inventory procedures adopted by leading industrial corporations, suggest that hospitals might benefit from such systems. Lack of the profit incentive, and the high ratio of wages to total expenses in hospitals, have delayed adoption of modern inventory management techniques. This study examined the economic status of Canadian hospitals, and endeavoured to discover whether a computer-based inventory management system, incorporating short-term statistical demand forecasting, would be feasible and advantageous. Scientific forecasting for inventory management is not used by hospitals. The writer considered which technique would be most suited to their needs, taking account of benefits claimed by industrial users. Samples of demand data were subjected to a variety of simple forecasting methods, including moving averages, exponentially smoothed averages and the Box-Jenkins method. Comparisons were made in terms of relative size of forecast errors; ease of data maintenance, and demands upon hospital clerical staffs. The computer system: BRUFICH facilitated scrutiny of the effect of each technique upon major components of the system. It is concluded that either of two methods would be appropriate: moving averages and double exponential smoothing. The latter, when combined with adaptive control through tracking signals, is easily incorporated within the total inventory system. It requires only a short run of data, tracks trend satisfactorily, and demands little operator intervention. The original system designed by this writer was adopted by the Hospital for Sick Children, Toronto, and has significantly improved their inventory management.