'BRIC' is an acronym created by Jim O’Neil to describe some of the world’s leading emergingeconomies, namely Brazil, Russia, India, and China. During 2010, the members of the group included South Africa and 'BRIC' was renamed 'BRICS'. The primary objective of this study was to investigate whether South Africa should be included in BRICS, taking into account that the country represents the whole of Africa. Data was collected by means of self- administered questionnaires and face-to-face semi-structured interviews. The results suggest that South Africa should be included in BRICS as it is depicted as the regional leader and gateway to the continent. This is demonstrated by its global economic prominence especially through multilateral organisations such as SADC, AU, and it is the only African country in the G20. It is recommended that South Africa should work together with other African countries and encourage their inclusion in achieving common economic goals. / Business Management / M. Com. (Business Management)

Made available in DSpace on 2014-12-17T14:34:46Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 FrancianeAC_DISSERT.pdf: 1159752 bytes, checksum: 5789ae9b3c2000239de9673924458330 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-10-04 / This Master s Thesis aims to use the theoretical models of growth with restricted balance of payments, specifically Kaldor (1970) and Thirlwall (1979) models, to analyze the behavior and the pattern of specialization of Brazilian exports and imports in the last years. It is observed that, in some periods, the pattern of specialization has contributed in restricting long-term growth of the Brazilian economy. It has been hypothesized that overall this is due to lack of structural transformation policies. To achieve this goal, it analyzed the performance of Brazilian exports and imports disaggregating them according to their technological content. The basis for comparison was a group of countries to which Brazil is inserted in, the BRIC. In this regard, the work is a comparative analysis by using descriptive statistics. It is concluded that the low rate of GDP growth experienced by Brazil since the 1980s can be explained in part by the decoupling of the Brazilian National Innovation System (NIS) and the Brazilian productive structure. This would be reducing the income elasticity of exports and raising imports, causing a pattern of specialization intensive primary commodities and labor and low-skill labor / A presente disserta??o tem como objetivo utilizar o referencial te?rico dos modelos de crescimento com restri??o do balan?o de pagamentos, especificamente os modelos de Kaldor (1970) e Thirlwall (1979), para analisar o comportamento e o padr?o de especializa??o das exporta??es brasileiras nos ?ltimos anos. Observa-se que, em alguns per?odos, o padr?o de especializa??o tem contribu?do na restri??o do crescimento de longo prazo da economia brasileira. Tem-se como hip?tese geral que isto se deve ? insufici?ncia de pol?ticas de transforma??o estrutural. Para atingir tal objetivo, analisou-se o desempenho das exporta??es e importa??es brasileiras desagregando-as de acordo com o seu conte?do tecnol?gico. A base de compara??o foi um grupo de pa?ses o qual o Brasil est? inserido, o BRIC. Neste aspecto, o trabalho consiste numa an?lise comparativa mediante o uso de estat?stica descritiva. Conclui-se que as modestas taxas de crescimento do PIB vivenciadas pelo Brasil desde a d?cada de 1980 podem ser explicadas em parte pelo descolamento entre o Sistema Nacional de Inova??o (SNI) brasileiro e a estrutura produtiva. Isto estaria reduzindo as elasticidades-renda das exporta??es e elevando a das importa??es, ocasionando um padr?o de especializa??o intensivo em commodities prim?rias e em trabalho de baixa qualifica??o

nÃo hà / This work analyzes the level of financial integration of an economic bloc entitled, on an ad hoc way, BRIC, composed by emerging economies with common and growth patterns, where more than 40% of the population live in one quarter of the worldâs territory. Following methodologically Vahid and Engle (1993), the results suggest that financial markets are determined by domestic economic fundamentals in periods of global economic stability, while in crisis periods, the cycles have greater importance in the composition of the returns of the indices analyzed, indicating a higher influence of financial risk. The individual cycles, as well as the individual trends are robustly correlated. These evidences are not trivial since Brazil is a market economy, with high level of inequality, poverty, democracy and urbanization, Russia is a an exsuperpower socialist, with high per capita income and human capital levels, India is a rural society with strong cultural and religious aspects, while China is a communist dictatorship with a high degree of trade openness and high levels of international reserves. The Indian financial market, which has been undergoing reforms since 1991, is such that the SENSEX-30 index plays important role in terms of predictability of others, as well as its tendency is the only individual to be significant in the exercise of causality Granger in the first common trend, the unique related to a promising scenario. / Este trabalho analisa o nÃvel de integraÃÃo financeira de um bloco econÃmico intitulado, de forma ad hoc, BRIC, composto por emergentes com padrÃes comuns e potenciais de crescimento, os quais dispÃem de um quarto do territÃrio mundial, onde residem mais de 40% da populaÃÃo. Seguindo metodologicamente Vahid e Engle (1993), os resultados sugerem que estes mercados financeiros sejam determinados por fundamentos econÃmicos domÃsticos em perÃodos de estabilidade econÃmica global, enquanto em perÃodos turbulentos, hà uma maior relevÃncia dos ciclos na composiÃÃo dos retornos dos Ãndices analisados, sinalizando uma maior influÃncia de fatores de risco financeiros. Em termos individuais, os ciclos, assim como as tendÃncias dos quatro emergentes sÃo robustamente correlacionados entre si. Estas evidÃncias nÃo sÃo triviais tratando-se se o Brasil de uma economia de mercado desigual, pobre, democrÃtica, fortemente urbanizada, a RÃssia de uma antiga superpotÃncia, exâadepta do socialismo que se destaca pela renda per capita e pelo capital humano, a Ãndia de uma sociedade rural, com forte traÃo cultural e religioso e a China de um comunismo ditatorial com elevado grau de abertura comercial e elevados nÃveis de reservas internacionais. O mercado financeiro indiano, o qual tem passado por reformas na desde 1991, à tal que, o Ãndice SENSEX-30 exerce relevante papel em termos de previsibilidade dos demais, assim como sua tendÃncia individual, a qual à a Ãnica a ser significativa no exercÃcio de causalidade de Granger na primeira tendÃncia comum, a Ãnica que està associada a um cenÃrio promissor.

nÃo hà / As economias emergentes que compÃem os BRIC, apesar de serem caracterizadas por heterogeneidades marcantes em termos econÃmicos, sociais e polÃticos, apresentam evidÃncias empÃricas sobre convergÃncia parcial e integraÃÃo financeira. Neste sentido, este trabalho agrega a discussÃo sobre gestÃo de risco dos principais Ãndices de mercado dos BRIC atravÃs do Value at Risk, em sua versÃo paramÃtrica gaussiana incondicional e extensÃes que acomodam as violaÃÃes sobre a nÃo normalidade e a heterocedasticidade dos retornos diÃrios. Corroborando estudos especÃficos para cada economia, Jianshe (2007) para o mercado chinÃs, Karmakar (2005) para o indiano e Thupayagale (2010) para o russo, evidencia-se ser necessÃrio adaptar o arcabouÃo visando modelar a idiossincrasia estatÃstica da sÃrie temporal dos Ãndices, recorrendo a valores crÃticos associados à distribuiÃÃo de probabilidade mais adequada, alÃm da modelagem da evoluÃÃo condicional do risco. O trabalho ainda oferece uma mÃtrica dinÃmica de performance risco-retorno dos Ãndices sob a Ãtica dos investidores locais. / Although the bloc labeled BRIC is composed of emerging economies characterized by heterogeneity in economic, social and political aspects, there are empirical evidences about the convergence and partial financial integration. In this sense, we address the risk management of most relevant BRIC market indices through Value at Risk approach, based on a parametric Gaussian and unconditional version, and also extending it intending to accommodate violations of heteroscedasticity and non-normality of daily returns. Corroborating previous and specific evidences, as Jianshe (2007) for the Chinese market, Karmakar (2005) for the Indian and Thupayagale (2010) for Russian, we are able to show that it is necessary to adapt the canonical framework, because of the statistical idiosyncrasies of time series, using the critical values related to the best fitting probability distribution, and modeling the evolution of the conditional risk. We also provide a dynamic measure of risk-return performance of theses indices from the perspective of local investors.

nÃo hà / O presente trabalho agrega à discussÃo da literatura teÃrica-empÃrica, seguindo conceitualmente Heller (1966), e alinhando-se a Calvo, Izquierdo e Loo-Kung (2012), e Alfaro e Kanczuk (2007; 2014), ao analisar as reservas internacionais dos paÃses que compÃem os BRIC, relativamente ao perÃodo de 1997 a 2013, com o intuito de associar o patamar otimizado de reservas a um instrumento gerencial de proteÃÃo (buffer) dos ativos pÃblicos, que funcionam como um amortecedor perante os desequilÃbrios do balanÃo de pagamentos, em funÃÃo de crises e sudden stops, dadas as evidÃncias prÃvias de contÃgio e integraÃÃo financeira neste bloco. O interesse pelos BRIC à pautado no fato de que nos prÃximos cinquenta anos, estas naÃÃes poderÃo vir a se tornar as maiores forÃas da economia mundial. Seguindo metodologicamente Frenkel e Jovanic (1981), aplicou-se o modelo intitulado de buffer stock nas sÃries temporais das reservas, havendo a inovaÃÃo e a relevÃncia no trabalho em virtude da consideraÃÃo dos possÃveis efeitos cruzados significativos das volatilidades condicionais e dos respectivos spreads intrabloco, atravÃs de um modelo vetorial com correÃÃo de erros (VEC). Verifica-se ainda que, sob a aplicaÃÃo deste modelo economÃtrico, os resultados permitiram identificar o papel relevante desempenhado pela volatilidade das reservas brasileira e russa, assim como do spread chinÃs na explicaÃÃo da gestÃo de reservas em alguns dos demais BRIC, que reflete na adoÃÃo de eventuais posturas conservadoras ou ousadas, por parte dos policy makers integrantes do bloco. / This study adds to discussion of theoretical and empirical literature, conceptually following Heller (1966), and aligning with the Calvo, Izquierdo e Loo-Kung (2012), and Alfaro e Kanczuk (2007; 2014), when analyzing international reserves countries that make up BRIC, for period 1997-2013, with a view to involving optimal level of reserves to a management tool protection (buffers) of public assets, which act as a buffer before balance of payments imbalances , due to crises and sudden stops, given previous evidence of contagion and financial integration in this block. Interest in BRIC is grounded in fact that next fifty years, these nations are likely to become major forces in the world economy. Following methodologically Frenkel e Jovanić (1981), we applied model titled buffer stock in time series of stores, and innovation and relevance in work due to consideration of likely significant cross effects of conditional volatilities and their bloc spreads, through a vector error correction model (VEC). It also appears that under application of econometric model, study findings show important role played by volatility of Brazilian and Russian stocks, as well as Chinese spread in explaining reserve management in some of other BRIC, which reflects adoption of any conservative or daring attitudes on the part of policy makers members of the bloc.

The thesis deals with the analysis of MIST markets (Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea and Turkey) in comparison to BRIC countries. The aim of the thesis is to emphasise the attractiveness and potential of MIST economies for international business and investments relating to their growing competitiveness. The first chapter introduces world trends in international trade and it describes the origin as well as the development of the group. The carried-out macroeconomic and demographic analysis in the second chapter reveals strengths and weaknesses of the MIST. The third chapter describes trade activities of the MIST and its current position in international trade. The fourth chapter analyses the entrepreneurial and investment environment of the group as well as its level of competitiveness. The carried-out research in the thesis has shown that the MIST economies represent a perspective group of developing markets with potential for trade and investment activities.

Les besoins en pétrole ont généré des dépendances et des fragilités, autant au niveau des pays consommateurs, que producteurs. Cette ressource a un rôle stratégique dans notre société, notamment dans le transport. Les NOCs (compagnies nationales pétrolières) en sont des acteurs centraux, qui poursuivent leurs objectifs, mais aussi des intérêts de l’Etat. Les pays dits BRIC (Brésil, Russie, Inde et Chine) sont des économies avec une influence significative sur le marché de l’énergie. Nous analysons deux comportements des NOCs pour améliorer la sécurité énergétique nationale : l’intégration verticale pour les pays consommateurs (Inde et Chine) et l’exploration réalisée par les coentreprises en partenariat avec les IOCs (compagnies privées) pour les producteurs (Brésil et Russie). Nous utilisons des méthodes économétriques et le calcul de rentabilité d’un projet d’exploration. Nous estimons le coût d’opportunité lié à un retard de la production. Le sujet est pertinent, dans un contexte d’instabilité politique de certains producteurs de pétrole et un prix du brut faible depuis la moitié de l’année 2014, obligeant les compagnies à revoir leurs stratégies. / Oil needs have generated dependencies and fragilities for producing and consuming countries. This resource plays a strategic role in our modern society. NOCs (National Oil Companies) are main actors pursuing, in addition to their objectives, State’s interest. BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) are economies with a significant influence on the energy market. In this research, we analyze two NOCs’ behaviors to improve national energy security: vertical integration for the consuming countries (India and China) and joint-ventures with IOCs (private companies) in exploration for the producing countries (Brazil and Russia). We use econometric methods and the profitability calculation in an exploration project. We calculate the opportunity cost related to a production delay. The subject is particularly relevant, in a context of political instability of certain oil producing areas and also with a low crude price since mid-2014, forcing oil companies to review their strategies.

South Africa was invited to join the Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC) group at the end of 2010, mainly because South Africa is viewed as the ‘gateway’ into Africa, and South Africa is also considered to be the link between BRIC and the Southern African Development Community (SADC). It is expected that the BRIC countries will increase their foreign direct investment (FDI) to South Africa. This inflow of BRIC FDI may lead to the advantages of boosting SADC exports, which is important as it may lead to the SADC countries experiencing expanded market opportunities, and exports have for a long time been viewed as an engine of economic growth. It has been further indicated that it is evident that relatively few studies have been conducted on the relationship between FDI and exports within the African context and that this relationship is not well understood. In light of these shortcomings in the literature, the first aim of this study was to attempt to contribute to the literature on FDI in SADC by investigating the relationship between BRIC FDI inflows on SADC exports. From the assessment of recent studies conducted on the relationship between FDI and exports in developed, developing and African countries a number of conclusions have been made. The first was that the majority of the studies conducted between 2000 and 2011 by various authors used causality tests and regression models to determine the relationships between FDI and exports. It also seemed that bi-directional causality is most often found, thereby indicating that FDI has a positive influence on exports and exports also have a positive influence on FDI. The secondary research aim, to determine the specific relationship between the BRIC’s FDI on SADC exports to BRIC and the world, was analysed by means of a descriptive and empirical study (correlation test, regression model, Granger causality test and panel data causality testing method), and the results indicated that, from 2003 to 2011, there was a strong positive correlation between BRIC FDI inflows to SADC and SADC exports to BRIC (59 per cent) and the world (96 per cent). The regression analysis showed that 53 per cent of the variance in the SADC exports to the BRIC is explained by BRIC FDI, while 99 per cent of the variance in the SADC exports to the world is explained by BRIC FDI. Finally the Granger causality test results indicated that BRIC FDI inflows contributed to higher exports from SADC, specifically SADC exports to the world. This was however not the case for SADC exports to BRIC. The results further suggest that there is a possible cointegration between BRIC FDI and the SADC exports to the world, reflecting, among other things, that the simultaneous movement of BRIC FDI inflows with SADC exports to the world may be mainly due to exogenous factors rather than a direct causal relationship. The BRIC FDI inflows on the SADC exports to the world being significant is a motivation for the SADC group to further motivate integration, co-operation and participation within BRIC, as this may possibly lead to further inward FDI flows, which may further promote exports to the world. Future studies would include determining the market forces that contribute to the simultaneous movement of BRIC FDI inflows into SADC, with the SADC exports to the world. / MCom (International Trade), North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2013

South Africa was invited to join the Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC) group at the end of 2010, mainly because South Africa is viewed as the ‘gateway’ into Africa, and South Africa is also considered to be the link between BRIC and the Southern African Development Community (SADC). It is expected that the BRIC countries will increase their foreign direct investment (FDI) to South Africa. This inflow of BRIC FDI may lead to the advantages of boosting SADC exports, which is important as it may lead to the SADC countries experiencing expanded market opportunities, and exports have for a long time been viewed as an engine of economic growth. It has been further indicated that it is evident that relatively few studies have been conducted on the relationship between FDI and exports within the African context and that this relationship is not well understood. In light of these shortcomings in the literature, the first aim of this study was to attempt to contribute to the literature on FDI in SADC by investigating the relationship between BRIC FDI inflows on SADC exports. From the assessment of recent studies conducted on the relationship between FDI and exports in developed, developing and African countries a number of conclusions have been made. The first was that the majority of the studies conducted between 2000 and 2011 by various authors used causality tests and regression models to determine the relationships between FDI and exports. It also seemed that bi-directional causality is most often found, thereby indicating that FDI has a positive influence on exports and exports also have a positive influence on FDI. The secondary research aim, to determine the specific relationship between the BRIC’s FDI on SADC exports to BRIC and the world, was analysed by means of a descriptive and empirical study (correlation test, regression model, Granger causality test and panel data causality testing method), and the results indicated that, from 2003 to 2011, there was a strong positive correlation between BRIC FDI inflows to SADC and SADC exports to BRIC (59 per cent) and the world (96 per cent). The regression analysis showed that 53 per cent of the variance in the SADC exports to the BRIC is explained by BRIC FDI, while 99 per cent of the variance in the SADC exports to the world is explained by BRIC FDI. Finally the Granger causality test results indicated that BRIC FDI inflows contributed to higher exports from SADC, specifically SADC exports to the world. This was however not the case for SADC exports to BRIC. The results further suggest that there is a possible cointegration between BRIC FDI and the SADC exports to the world, reflecting, among other things, that the simultaneous movement of BRIC FDI inflows with SADC exports to the world may be mainly due to exogenous factors rather than a direct causal relationship. The BRIC FDI inflows on the SADC exports to the world being significant is a motivation for the SADC group to further motivate integration, co-operation and participation within BRIC, as this may possibly lead to further inward FDI flows, which may further promote exports to the world. Future studies would include determining the market forces that contribute to the simultaneous movement of BRIC FDI inflows into SADC, with the SADC exports to the world. / MCom (International Trade), North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2013

The main purpose of this thesis is to develop methodological and practical improvements on robust portfolio optimization procedures. Firstly, the thesis discusses the drawbacks of classical mean-variance optimization models, and examines robust portfolio optimization procedures with CVaR and worst-case CVaR risk models by providing a clear presentation of derivation of robust optimization models from a basic VaR model. For practical purposes, the thesis introduces an open source software interface called “RobustRisk”, which is developed for producing empirical evidence for the robust portfolio optimization models. The software, which performs Monte-Carlo simulation and out-of-sample performance for the portfolio optimization, is introduced by using a hypothetical portfolio data from selected emerging markets. In addition, the performance of robust portfolio optimization procedures are discussed by providing empirical evidence in the crisis period from advanced markets. Empirical results show that robust optimization with worst-case CVaR model outperforms the nominal CVaR model in the crisis period. The empirical results encourage us to construct a forward-looking stress test procedure based on robust portfolio optimization under regime switches. For this purpose, the Markov chain process is embedded into robust optimization procedure in order to stress regime transition matrix. In addition, assets returns, volatilities, correlation matrix and covariance matrix can be stressed under pre-defined scenario expectations. An application is provided with a hypothetical portfolio representing an internationally diversified portfolio. The CVaR efficient frontier and corresponding optimized portfolio weights are achieved under regime switch scenarios. The research suggests that stressed-CVaR optimization provides a robust and forward-looking stress test procedure to comply with the regulatory requirements stated in Basel II and CRD regulations.