In spite of our substantive knowledge about global un-sustainability, insufficient progress is being made to halt systematic socio-ecological decline. Much information is readily available on downstream impacts, with limited focus on upstream activities driving such effects. This thesis uses backcasting from socioecological principles for sustainability to identify major upstream human activities violating these principles, the underlying drivers reinforcing such activities, alternative practices already in use with potential for significant expansion, and emerging opportunities for action across different sectors of society. Results show emerging patterns of high magnitude violations across all four socio-ecological principles indicating nexus points in energy, transportation and agriculture. These activities are reinforced by our societal structure which is designed to meet human needs through a growth paradigm which in turn does not adequately consider the ongoing health of ecosystems or the sustainable functioning of society itself. Shifting to potential solutions, examples focus on themes such as renewable energy, green chemicals, organic agriculture, and self-organising network structures. Recognising that these actions may not be enough, the thesis explores elements of a global vision which could guide progress. Emerging nexus points for societal change include education, information flows (particularly the media), design (as a leverage point), self-organization, and governance. / <p>Josephine Brennan +27 83 778 9158</p>

Human society is currently designed based on linear patterns, without concern for and interactions with the biosphere. The natural world works in cycles, and in order to interact with these systems in a sustainable way, the redesign of human society according to the paradigm of cyclical thinking is required. This paper explores the synthesis and synergies between the cradle-to-cradle concept and a Framework for Strategic Sustainable Development in the context of sustainable development. The research tests whether Backcasting using Sustainability Principles is supportive to the implementation of the cradle-to-cradle concept and draws on relevant literature as well as interviews with experts. Based upon this research a process tool is designed and tested within a case study. Results indicate that, when backcasting using sustainability principles, principles for design and principles for decision-making provide synergistic characteristics in the process of implementation. Inspiring design principles, such as the ones suggested by the cradle-to-cradle concept, provide powerful engagement for a social learning process that works towards sustainable development. A structured decision-making process based on backcasting using sustainability principles provides the constraints and criteria for robust decision-making along the journey.

This thesis explores how to apply an approach of strategic sustainable development to e-waste management through a case study at the National University of Rwanda (NUR). Interviews and surveys were conducted, and workshops and presentations were hosted during a site visit to NUR. No e-waste management system is in place in Rwanda, while the country is working to increase ICT capacity. At NUR, awareness of e-waste challenges is low, and management currently consists of storage and limited low-tech pre-processing. Suggested actions were prioritized and delivered to NUR in an action plan under three project categories: project core, e-waste management, and e-waste education and research with the aim of establishing a pilot project of e-waste management to make NUR an e-waste leader. A Framework for Strategic Sustainable Development was used to ensure e-waste is managed in a strategic way that leads to an e-waste management approach that could exist in a sustainable society. This research concludes that strategic sustainable e-waste management is possible at NUR and presents six theme areas to guide the development of an e-waste project with a systems perspective.

Låt oss anta att Nacka kommun, företag och medborgare i samverkan ser den nya tunnelbanesträckningen till Nacka centrum som en möjlighet att skapa de ”trendbrott” i dagens utveckling som behövs för att stödja att centrala Nacka uppfyller sin del av tvågradersmålet till 2050. Studien använder sig av den normativa scenariotekniken backcasting och utgår från ovanstående antagande för att skapa ett scenario för 2030. Scenariot illustrerar en metod för hur planerare, politiker och andra aktörer kan samverka för att bidra till en hållbar stadsutveckling. Scenariot har tagits fram med hjälp av en workshop med deltagare inom olika kunskapsområden från ett konsultbolag i samhällsbyggnadsbranschen och Nacka kommun, där backcastingtekniken tillämpades. Syftet med studien är att illustrera ett alternativ för hur centrala Nacka år 2030 kan se ut om Nacka kommun med andra aktörer i samverkan bestämde sig för att ge ett bidrag till att centrala Nacka ska uppfylla sin del av tvågradersmålet, samt att ge exempel på hur backcasting kan användas i samhällsplaneringen. Studien utgår ifrån att den idag planerade t-banedragningen till Nacka centrum kommer att bli av, och att det i sin tur blir en möjlighet för förändring mot en hållbar utveckling i de centrala delarna av Nacka. Studien har även ett aktörsperspektiv och kartlägger vilka aktörer som idag är med och påverkar utvecklingen i centrala Nacka och vilka som enlig scenariot för 2030 kommer att vara med och påverka utvecklingen. Ett omvärldsscenario för 2030 användes i syfte att få deltagarna att befria tanken och tänka bortom dagens planering. Scenariot för centrala Nacka 2030 förmedlar bilden av centrala Nacka som det skulle kunna se ut om planerare och andra aktörer använder sig av kreativitet och nya idéer för att ge sitt bidrag till uppfyllandet av tvågradersmålet och halvera sina utsläpp till 2050. Vidare visar studien hur backcasting kan användas som en ny metodik i kommunal planering i arbete med exempelvis hållbarhetsprogram för stadsdelar.   NYCKELORD: Backcasting, framtidsstudier, workshop, centrala Nacka, omvärldsscenario, aktörssamverkan, strategisk planering / SitCit - Situation of Opportunity in the Growth and Change of three Stockholm City Districts – everyday life, built environment and transport explored as Energy Usage Systems (EUS) and Governance Networks

This is a futures study based on the citizen initiative HS2020 in Hammarby Sjöstad, Stockholm. The initiative has the vision to “Renew a new city”, and further develop Hammarby Sjöstad’s environmental profile towards a sustainable development until 2020. The aim of this study is to explore the possibilities for HS2020 to also work with Collaborative Consumption, which involves the sharing of goods, services, and space, as a contributing factor to the sustainable development of Hammarby Sjöstad. This study uses an explorative scenario approach together with backcasting, a normative scenario approach to create future images of Hammarby Sjöstad in 2020. These images explore the possibilities for HS2020 to also work with Collaborative Consumption in six of their sub-projects. The futures images were generated based on three workshops with participants connected to HS2020’s work, and also on the literature study and the collected background information. The future images of Hammarby Sjöstad mediate how HS2020 could further develop the existing sub-projects, by focusing more on Collaborative Consumption. The solutions presented in the theory could be implemented in Hammarby Sjöstad. They could be for anyone, restricted to members, within an apartment building or a small group of people that could also own and maintain the sharing solution. Other important actors are private companies, the municipality and non-profit organization that could initiate, own and maintain these sharing solutions. The future images show that they could contribute to increased sustainability in different ways.

Contemporary and future societies are facing a myriad of challenges, some of which are throwing into question the future viability of humanity on Planet Earth. These challenges are complex and systemic, and to solve them we must transition to more sustainable ways. Increasingly, researchers have a role to play in not only researching transitions but also facilitating transition through research design which postulates closer engagement in practical contexts and empowering actors of governance to identify pathways for transition. Transition management offers a framework for those interested in bringing about such transitionary potential through research, and potentially offers a tool for students interested in using their university work as a means to bring about transition. This study applies transition management framework using Kosovo’s forest governance as a case study asking the question: How can Kosovo transition towards more sustainable forest governance? The paper finds that forest governance in Kosovo is highly chaotic and inefficient. Issues of lack of capacity, competencies, expertise as well as knowledge are coupled with legal framework which does not allow for local ecological contexts nor local needs to produce a regime of governance subject to environmental degradation, corruption and contestation. Moreover, the absence of capacity on both central and local levels means that the regime configuration is very weak and malleable, and niches have potential to bring about transitions in regime configurations. For Kosovo, moreover, it finds that operative activities are not only possible but desirable, and that actors engaged in forest governance have good conditions and a receptive society for transition. None of the actors which participated in the study were happy with the situation and the need for change is well understood. The challenge for Kosovo is thus identified as how best to facilitate participation for transition, how best to balance centralised vs. decentralised governance, as well as how best to facilitate learning through both raising awareness and listening. These issues are found to be best pursued collectively with wide participation. It identifies three suggestions for transitions which are aimed at bolstering and streamlining existing niche innovations in Kosovo: i) participatory forest governance plans, ii) a forest community centre as well as iii) citizen science initiatives. Lastly, it reflects on the process of involved, participatory and complexity-oriented research to address complex issues, as well as the merit of transition management. It finds that whilst epistemologically diverse and more action-oriented research is important and productive for students of Sustainable Development, even necessary, the transition management framework is difficult to implement, cumbersome and possibly not possible for students. Whilst strategic, tactical and reflexive activities are possible, operative activities are more difficult and exposes the weak standing of students within the politics of environmental governance.

I Sverige står bostads- och servicesektorn för ca 40 procent av den totala energianvändningen. Riksdagen hade fram till år 2012 ett specifikt mål om att halvera energianvändningen i sektorn till år 2050. I väntan på att ett nytt mål antas skrivs att innebörden för målet kvarstår. Till 2050 ska energianvändningen ha halverats. Denna rapport är en backcastingstudie som har som mål att analysera vad som krävs för att uppnå halveringsmålet genom satsning på fyra huvudåtgärder; nyproduktion, ombyggnad, stegvis förbättring och effektivare användning av bostadsbeståndet. Sex scenarion har satts upp, ett för varje huvudåtgärd och två scenarion som kombinerar de övriga fyra. Resultatet visar vilken väg som kan tänkas vara bäst att gå och at tstora insatser för att nå målet kommer att krävas. Dessa berör bostads- och servicesektorns alla aktörer samt beslutsfattare på samhällets alla nivåer. En beräkning för den potentiella besparingen i koldioxidutsläpp till följd av energiminskningen har också gjorts. Utsläppsminskningarna kan som följd komma att bli av betydande storlek och kan bidra till att Sverige blir ett föregångsland i omställningen till ett hållbart samhälle. / In Sweden, the dwelling and service sector accounts for approximately 40 percent of the total energy use. Up until 2012, the parliament had a specific goal to reduce the energy use by half in the sector to 2050. While waiting for a new goal to be set however, the parliament states that the implication of the goal remains. The energy use shall be reduced by half before the year 2050. This report is a back-casting study that has the aim to analyze what it takes to reach the goal by focusing on four main measures; new construction, reconstruction, gradual improvement and more efficient use of the heated areas in residential buildings. Six scenarios have been set up, one for every main measure and two scenarios that combine the other four. The result shows what path might be best to choose and that extensive and rapid transformationis necessary to reach the goal. These contributions affect all the involved actors as well as stakeholders on all the different levels of society. Resulting reductions in carbon dioxide emissionsdue to the decrease in energy use have also been calculated. The potential reduction can become significant in size and contribute to making Sweden a pioneer in the transformation to asustainable society.

The results from this study show that it is possible to obtain data series on the steel scrap collection based on mass balance model on the crude steel production figures by steelmaking reactor type and additional knowledge on process metallurgy as well as information on inputs and outputs into the reactors with an area correlation coefficient of 0,91 compared to data obtained from trade statistics. Furthermore, the study shows that based on a new method it is possible to calculate the time duration of mass flows on a continuous basis. Furthermore, two complementary statistical dynamic material flow models that can be used to calculate the societal recycling rates of steel was constructed. These statistical models contribute to a standardized way of obtaining consistent results. The new models are able to segregate the non-recirculated amounts of steel into the hibernating steel stock available for future collection from the amounts of losses based on statistics. The results show that it is possible to calculate the amounts of steel scrap available for steelmaking at a given point in time. In addition, based on the new models it is possible to calculate recycling trends in society. Also, the models are able to calculate robust forecasts on the long-term availability of steel scrap, and test if forecast demand of steel scrap exceeds a full recovery. This due to that the steel scrap generation is a function of the collection rate of steel scrap. Also, a method for obtaining representative samplings on the alloy content in steel scrap called random sampling analysis (RSA) was developed. The results from the RSA show that it is possible to optimize the recovery of valuable elements in the production process of steelmaking based on the information on the composition of steel scrap. / <p>QC 20151020</p>

Social Innovation Laboratories, or short, social labs, represent an emerging field of lab-based inquiry to sustainability transitions, which emphasize learning through experimentation to find new ways of addressing highly complex challenges. Yet, a key challenge for these initiatives is on one hand to know whether they are “on track”, on the other hand, to evaluate their contribution to addressing a complex challenge. Our hypothesis was that adaptive capacity could serve as a lens for the evaluation of a social labs impact to building social resilience and hence in building capacities necessary for a transition towards sustainability. The aim of this research was firstly to gain a better understanding of the evaluation practices of social labs and secondly to find out how the adaptive capacity of a social lab could be evaluated and might, more generally, point towards a novel approach of evaluating in complexity for strategic sustainable development. Our results suggest that adaptive capacity could support evaluations by providing a mirror for the essential features of a social lab to be resilient. We propose three key aspects to evaluate: systems thinking, trust and prototyping capacity. Yet, this is only a first stepping stone toward an evaluation framework, which will require field testing and further research.

Land use, transport, and energy systems create demands that are transferred to ecosystems. Urban sprawl is increasing, open space and farmland are disappearing and climate change is a growing concern. Yet local, national, and EU policies on sustainable development and economic growth are often at odds with one another. A sector-by-sector approach that focuses on incremental actions precludes effective, integrated solutions. Progress towards sustainability requires a systems-based perspective grounded in science. This paper presents a comprehensive and strategic framework to help communities (1) adopt a whole-systems view to land use, transport, and energy, (2) develop a vision to guide their actions, and (3) strategically adopt actions that close the gap between the current reality and the envisioned sustainable future. An emphasis is placed on strategies related to governance structures and strategies to secure political and public acceptance, including approaches to public participation.