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This thesis is about the making of futures – in the sense of planning, through which the world of tomorrow is crafted, and in the sense of images of the future, developed through the futures studies approach of backcasting. The point of departure for the thesis is that more visionary and strategic forms of planning are needed if the challenges of sustainable development are to be met, and that backcasting, through its long-term, integrative and normative character, can be a helpful tool towards this end. The thesis explores how backcasting can be used when planning for sustainability by looking into three areas of problems and possibilities. The first of these concerns target setting, for which was found that both backcasting and planning tend to use targets that are elusive, rendering it difficult to understand what is included in the target and what is omitted. As a way to rectify this, a framework of methodological considerations for target setting is presented (Paper I). There is also a need for further methodological development on how to set targets for environmental aspects other than energy and GHG gases. The second area concerns the identification of measures and actors, where both backcasting and planning were found to have the problem of being techno-biased and/or taking a rather superficial approach to ‘the social’ which means that the socio-technical complexity of everyday life is left unattended (Paper II). This has consequences in terms of delimiting the scope of measures identified and proposed and of the potential of these to result in intended changes. Two approaches are suggested to deal with this: a methodology for developing socio-technical scenarios, in which an iterative identification of objects and agents of change is a central trait (Paper III), and a service-orientated energy efficiency analysis, in which the social logic of energy use is highlighted (Paper IV). The third area concerns how backcasting can be used in a more explorative approach to the governance of change, instead of leaving this unaddressed and/or unaltered (Paper V). In relation to this, the institutional and political dimensions of planning for sustainability are emphasised, with the focus on path dependency, discursive power and critical junctures (Paper VI). The connection described between the fields of backcasting and planning for sustainability study and practice is thus beneficial for planning by showing how this could be made more visionary and strategic, while also contributing to the theoretical and methodological advancement of backcasting. One of the main contributions of the thesis is the exploration of how backcasting studies could benefit from including the question of ‘Who?’: Who could make the changes happen? Who should change (whose) lifestyle? Who (what group/s in society) benefits and who loses from the images of the future that are developed? And who is invited to take part in the making of futures and whose futures are being heard? Including the question of ‘who’ highlights the normative character of sustainable development and makes issues of environmental justice and equity visible. The formulation of images of the future is also a question of resources and ultimately of power. In relation to this there is a need for groups of society besides those in power to be encouraged to develop their images of the (sustainable, desired) future, and to give room for these in policy-making and planning. The openness of the future renders desirability and ethics, and not probability, the basis on which the feasibility of images of the future must be assessed. / <p>QC 20120514</p> / SitCit / ICT as a motor for transition

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This study concerns the energy future of the county of Stockholm up until 2050 and describes how the energy consumption can be compared to today with the use of scenario methodology. Within energy future studies the backcasting approach is well known and has been put to use in this study. Due to the characteristics of backcasting the study is self-fulfilling, i.e. the future energy scenarios presented in this study satisfy the targets set up in this study. In the light of what may be the largest challenge of our time – the climate change - the aim of this study is to describe how the energy consumption in a fossil fuel free Stockholm county in the year of 2050 may be. The need to reduce the carbon emission to the atmosphere is extensive and of immediate urgency. One part of reducing carbon emission is to relinquish the fossil energy use which is attained either by reducing the energy consumption or switching to renewable energy use or a combination of both of these measures. The scenarios also describe the energy use per capita as well as carbon emissions per capita (due to energy use) besides being fossil fuel free. The energy use and carbon emission per capita is related to what is known as fair share of environmental space which may indicate if the per capita levels deduced in this study is consistent with a sustainable society. Several measures and their potential (to decrease the energy use or shifting into renewable energy fuels) are presented. The scope of measures reaches for example from energy efficiency to new infrastructure but also to reducing measures that reduce the need for example travels. The measures presented in the study are a reality today or will be in the near future, so the study takes on a non-technology optimistic approach. Several of the measures are combined into two different energy-futures for the year 2050 and their energy use is comparedto a business-as-usual-scenario. The business-as-usual-scenario describes the level of energy use in the County of Stockholm if no active measures are taken to reduce the energy use. The scenarios are presented with two different possible alternatives for the economic and population growth, i.e. alternative BAS (eng; base) and HÖG (eng; high). The study with its (only) two different future scenarios is not exhausting thepossible fossil fuel free futures of Stockholm County. Neither the measures nor the energy-futures have been evaluated from an economic or any other perspective. This means the study leave out whether the measures or the energy futures are feasible from an economic perspective or even desirable. The study also leaves out other perspectives like other environmental effects, health issues,equality, aesthetic etc. The aim of presenting different energy-futures of a fossil fuel free Stockholm county is to encourage, simulate stakeholders, policymakers and community citizens to further take an active interest and to start making the changes needed that leads to a fossil fuel free community. The energy-futures but also a few of the measures shows that the future energy use in Stockholm county in the year 2050 may decrease substantially compared 2003. As a result of this the need for renewable energy fuels (for replacing theuse of fossil energy fuels) is reduced. If Stockholm county may take an 10 % part of the bio energy that the whole of Sweden can produce in the future the fossil fuel free energy-futures presented in this study is secured. The energy-futures also shows that the energy use per capita may reach a sustainable level and also that the carbon emission per capita reaches a level far below the suggested level expressed by the Swedish government of 4,5 ton CO2 per capita. One step in the backcasting approach has been left out in this study, i.e. the path to the presented energy-futures. The reason for this is that it needs further analysis of the energy-futures from several other perspectives. As well as analysis over decision making processes, planning processes and different stakeholders involved. However the presented energy-futures may in some cases indicate what type of measures and decisions that needs to be taken and what kind of investments that are needed. Finally, the future is still yet unknown and the energy-futures presented in this study are in the long-time perspective which further increases the uncertainty ofthe scenarios because of uncertainty in collected data, calculations and assumptions made. On the other hand the aim of the study is not to present the most probable energy future but energy futures that fulfil the target of a fossil fuel free Stockholm county in the year 2050.

This thesis explores how planning for sustainable development can be enhanced in Australia with a particular focus on strategic plans. Today, the concept of sustainable development has not been fully operationalised into plans; market and political forces still play a predominant role in planning practice. Nevertheless, some authors believe that the concept of sustainable development has reinvigorated planning. For example, there is an extensive literature on this topic within planning theory, although in practice, sustainable development has been difficult to implement. This thesis after acknowledging the relevance of economy and politics, provides an alternative approach to operationalise sustainable development in plans through a technical perspective. This perspective is based on the examination, from literature, of several techniques which deal with sustainable development. The central idea is that these techniques can be embraced under one concept,

Philosophiae Doctor - PhD / Governance is essentially the process whereby organisations or networks of organisations exercise their authority. It describes how a body with authority makes or does not make decisions, and how it implements - or does not implement - those decisions. 'Good' groundwater governance can then be defined by how fair the decision-making process is, and how effective the implementation process is. Groundwater governance in South Africa is increasingly being categorized as ineffective. The purpose of this thesis is to explore ways to improve groundwater governance in South Africa. Initial reviews of international studies of groundwater governance did not find any processes that could be directly imported into the South African governance landscape for testing. The global consensus was that there were no blueprints for improving groundwater governance, and that each case should be treated as unique. Therefore the thesis had to change from its initial aim of finding firm rules that could be tested in the South African context, to a revised aim of formulating tentative heuristics, rules, strategies and hypotheses that might be useful for further work in the South African context.An exploratory, inductive-based, loosely structured methodology was therefore employed rather than a more formal, deductive-based testing of hypotheses. In short, the objective of this thesis was concerned with formulating hypotheses rather than testing them.The novel, general, contribution made by this thesis is to synthesize global groundwater governance literature with the specific aim of improving groundwater governance in a specific country. While reviews of global literature do exist, they have thus far only been used to make generic recommendations, and have not been specifically applied to a country. Conversely, while attempts to improve groundwater governance for specific regions and countries do exist, these attempts have largely done so without synthesizing existing global knowledge. Indeed, the emphasis on national, regional and local studies has principally been to understand the factors at work affecting groundwater governance, rather than to improve governance.

This thesis addresses the need for a practical toolkit to facilitate community participation in place visioning workshops, aiding placemakers in driving change in placemaking. By integrating the place visioning pathway into the participatory backcasting framework, the proposed adapted framework for place visioning consists of four activities: (1) Orientation - Define the current challenge of the place, (2) Visioning - Develop a future vision, (3) Backcasting - Propose actions to actualise the vision, and (4) Elaboration - Choose feasible actions to create an action plan. An initial prototype toolkit was developed and tested with placemakers, leading to redesigning of the toolkit to address concerns of complexity, inclusivity, and playfulness. Lastly, the toolkit was iterated into a combination of tools and resources, of which four canvas tools are the main part, along with ideation cards for inspiration, and a handbook for guidance.  This research focused on the convergence of placemaking, visioning, and designerly tools, with the underlying aim of creating resources to support community-based participatory design. The actual implementation of the toolkit in a placemaking case was not realised throughout the process, but the resultant artefact, insights from research, and feedback gathered from its testing could provide a basis for future research of the concept.

I dagens samhälle är klimatet och påverkan på miljön en av de viktigaste frågorna som bör ställas. Transportsektorn står för en stor del av de utsläpp som påverkar miljön och genom att minska utsläppen från transportsektorn kan frågor om klimatet adresseras. Arbetspendling är en del av transportsektorn och har använts som fokusområde för rapporten på grund av dess möjligheter till förändring som kommit i ljuset under Covid-19 pandemin. Syftet med rapporten är således att undersöka hur klimatpåverkan från arbetspendling kan reduceras. För detta har Järfälla kommun valts som fokusområde.  För att svara på syftet har en scenario- och litteraturstudie genomförts för att ge svar på vilka förändringar i resvanor som skett i samband med pandemin samt på vilket sätt en reducering av utsläppen relaterade till arbetspendlande kan ske. Scenariostudien utformades som en backcastingstudie vilken resulterade i fyra scenarier där samtliga beskriver sätt att nå målet om en reducering av klimatpåverkan från arbetspendling. Resultatet av studien presenteras i form av scenarier som alla ger ett svar på syftet, ‘hur kan klimatpåverkan från arbetspendling reduceras’ genom att visa effekterna av åtgärder såsom att arbeta från hemmet och begränsa möjligheten till parkering vid arbetsplatsen.  Genom att göra en scenariostudie har syftet kunnat besvaras. Däremot har flera antaganden behövts göras som påverkar resultatet. Slutsatsen som kan dras av arbetet är således att klimatpåverkan från arbetspendling kan minska genom att tillämpa åtgärder såsom hemarbete och en begränsning av antalet parkeringsplatser, men ytterligare studier bör genomföras på energianvändningens skifte från arbetsplatsen till hemmet, digitala mötens effekt på transportbehovet, arbetspendlingens klimatpåverkan utöver CO2-utsläpp och hur anställdas hälsa påverkas av hemarbetet. / In today's society, the climate and the impact on the environment is one of the most important questions that should be asked. The transport sector accounts for a large part of the emissions that affect the environment, and by reducing emissions from the transport sector, such questions about the climate can be addressed. Work commuting is part of the transport sector and has been used as a focus area for this study due to the potential for change that came to light during the Covid-19 pandemic. The purpose of this study is thus to investigate how the climate impact from commuting can be reduced. For this Järfälla in Stockholm has been chosen as the area of study.  To answer the purpose, a scenario and literature study has been conducted to provide answers to what changes in travel habits have occurred due to the pandemic and in what ways a reduction in emissions related to commuting can happen. The scenario study was designed as a backcasting study which resulted in four scenarios where all describe ways to achieve the goal of reducing the climate impact from commuting. The results of the study are therefore presented in the form of scenarios that all provide an answer to the purpose, ‘how can the climate impact from commuting be reduced’ by showing the effects of measures such as working from home and limiting the possibility of parking at the workplace.  By doing a scenario study, the purpose of the study has been answered. However, several assumptions have had to be made that affected the result. The conclusion that can be drawn from the study is that the climate impact from commuting can be reduced by applying measures such as working from home and a limitation of the number of parking spaces available, but further studies needs to be carried out regarding the shift in energy usage from the workplace to the home, the effect of digital meetings on the need for transport, the climate impact of commuting in addition to CO2 emissions and how employees' health is affected by working from home.

Idag står transportsektorn för cirka 30 % av Sveriges totala koldioxidutsläpp. Elbilen ses som en hållbar lösning då den skulle minska utsläppen från Sveriges transportsektor. Hållbarhet handlar dock inte bara om koldioxidutsläpp. Syftet med projektet är därför att ge en kritisk bild av ett framtida elektrifierat samhälle med fokus på elbilen. Arbetet syftar också till att undersöka vad som krävs för att elektrifiera den svenska personbilsflottan och om detta skulle leda till ett mer hållbart samhälle. De metoder som använts är litteraturstudie, workshop och en modifierad version av två befintliga Backcasting-metoder. De huvudsakliga resultaten är att elektrifiering av personbilsflottan i Sverige, utan vidare åtgärder, leder till att koldioxidutsläppen minskar. Elbilen är också avgasfri vilket gör att även partiklar och skadliga ämnen från avgaserna minskar. Dock finns en risk att problem som giftutsläpp samt dåliga arbetsvillkor vid framtagning av råvaror till elbilsbatterier förvärras när efterfrågan på råvarorna ökar. För de problem och aspekter som inte blir bättre har redan ett antal åtgärder börjat vidtas för att göra personbilsflottan mer hållbar. Dock är det svårt att säga hur stor inverkan åtgärderna har på problemen och fler åtgärder behöver vidtas för att hela produktionskedjan ska bli hållbar. Slutsatsen som dras i arbetet är att elbilen i sig inte leder till ett hållbart samhälle men att om en kombination av fler åtgärder vidtas finns potential att elbilen kan bidra till ett mer hållbart samhälle. / Today, the transport sector accounts for approximately 30 % of Sweden's total CO2-emissions. The battery electric vehicle is seen as a sustainable solution as it would reduce emissions from Sweden’s transport sector. However, sustainability is not just about CO2-emissions. The aim of the project is therefore to give a critical picture of a future electrified society with focus on the battery electric vehicle. The work also aims to investigate what is required to electrify the Swedish passenger car fleet and whether this would lead to a more sustainable society. The methods used in the report are literature study, workshop and a modified version of two existing Backcasting methods. The main results are that electrification of the passenger car fleet in Sweden, without further action, leads to a reduction in CO2-emissions. The battery electric vehicle is also exhaust-free, which means that particles and harmful substances from the exhaust gases are also reduced. However, there is a risk that problems such as toxic emissions and poor working conditions in the production of raw materials for electric vehicle batteries will worsen as demand for raw materials increases.  For the problems and aspects that are not getting better, a number of measures have already begun to be taken to make the passenger car fleet more sustainable. However, it is difficult to say how much impact the measures have on the problems and more measures need to be taken to make the entire production chain sustainable. The conclusion drawn from the work is that the battery electric vehicle itself does not lead to a sustainable society, but if measures are taken, there is the potential that the battery electric vehicle can contribute to a more sustainable society.

This thesis examines how to take into account both environmental and social sustainability goals to be used in scenarios or in policymaking. In paper I, we select four sustainability goals that have to be fulfilled by 2050 in normative future scenarios for Sweden in a degrowth context. Two goals address ecological challenges, climate change and land use issues specifically. The other two goals address social issues and deal with participation and influence in society as well as resource security and distribution. The environmental goals will require significant reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and land use compared to today's levels. The social goals are within reach today, although the degree of fulfillment differs across different groups in society. In paper II, we review existing and suggested climate or energy targets at a global, national and local scale and search for justice perspectives or for proposals for such perspectives. We find that the justice aspect is not explicitly formulated in existing climate and energy targets and that, the community of justice i.e. the receivers of benefits or burdens, in our reviewed examples, is limited to human beings, thereby excluding all other living beings. In paper III, we assess how four different backcasting scenarios for land use in a Swedish context, all of which fulfil a climate target of zero CO2 emissions in 2060, impact on other sustainability goals. We conduct a goal conflict analysis between the chosen climate goal and the other Swedish environmental goals, the gender equity goals and the public health goal. We find that there are more potential goal conflicts in scenarios with no global climate agreement. From the results of all three papers, I then discuss several aspects that have to be taken into account when setting goals, such as the major uncertainties associated with long-term goals, the elusiveness, the normativity of goals and the need to separate goals from the means to achieve the goals. / Utsläpp av växthusgaser (GHG) och andra miljöproblem, såsom förlust av biologisk mångfald, markanvändning och övergödning av sötvatten och marina kustekosystem, är stora utmaningar för mänskligheten. De planetära gränser för dessa områden har redan överskridits. Av de 16 svenska miljömålen för 2020, vars syfte är att lösa dessa ödesfrågor, bedöms bara ett – "Ett skyddande ozonskikt" – uppnås i tid. Vad gäller sociala mål på global nivå fram till 2015 – FN:s Milleniemål – har visserligen betydande framsteg gjorts på en del områden, t.ex. jämställdhet i utbildningen, men utfallet skiljer sig mellan länder och inom länder med avseende på socioekonomisk grupp och kön. Denna avhandling undersöker hur man kan ta hänsyn till både miljömässiga och sociala hållbarhetsmål som ska användas i framtidsscenarier eller som underlag till beslutsfattande. I artikel I väljs fyra hållbarhetsmål i en tvärvetenskaplig process. Målen ska uppfyllas 2050 i s.k. normativa framtidsscenarier (backcasting) för Sverige i en kontext av nedväxt eller låg tillväxt. De två första målen handlar om klimatförändringar och markanvändningsfrågor. De två andra är sociala mål och omfattar delaktighet och inflytande i samhället samt tillgång till resurser och fördelning av dessa. För att uppnå de valda miljömålen, kommer drastiska minskningar av växthusgasutsläpp (GHG) och markanvändning att behövas, jämfört med dagens situation. Båda de sociala målen är inom räckhåll i dag, även om graden av uppfyllelse skiljer sig mellan olika grupper i samhället. I artikel II genomförs en kvalitativ dokumentanalys för att samla information om befintliga och föreslagna klimat- och energimål på global, nationell och lokal nivå. Vi letar också efter rättviseperspektiv i befintliga klimat- och energimål samt förslag till sådana perspektiv i föreslagna mål i den vetenskapliga litteraturen liksom i rapporter från miljöorganisationer. En slutsats är att rättvisa inte är uttryckligen formulerat i befintliga klimat- och energimål. Vi använder en teoretisk ram för social rättvisa som skiljer mellan vem som ger och får det som fördelas, vad som fördelas (rättvisevaluta) och hur det fördelas (distributionsprinciper). Utifrån vår analys fann vi att en egalitär princip används för de flesta föreslagna målen, exempelvis för globala mål om utsläpp av växthusgaser per capita. Samtliga av de granskade målen omfattar endast rättvisa mellan människor och exkluderar därmed andra levande varelser. I artikel III analyserar vi hur fyra olika backcastingscenarier för markanvändning i ett svenskt sammanhang år 2060 påverkar andra hållbarhetsmål när ett klimatmål om noll CO2-utsläpp är uppfyllt. Med hjälp av en matris gör vi en målkonfliktanalys med de övriga svenska miljömålen, jämställdhetsmål och mål för folkhälsan med dess 11 tillhörande målområden. Analysen visar att de potentiella målkonflikterna är fler i scenarier utan globalt klimatavtal. Detta beror främst på att vissa miljöfrågor måste behandlas på global nivå, samt att minskningen i miljöpåverkan kommer att bero på åtgärder som inte bara vidtagits i Sverige utan också globalt. Utifrån dessa tre artiklar diskuterar jag sedan olika aspekter som måste beaktas vid fastställandet av mål. Eftersom hållbarhetsmål är långsiktiga och kännetecknas av en hel del osäkerhet diskuterar jag behovet av att sätta upp "försiktigt utopiska mål" (cautiously utopian goals), det vill säga mål som kan vara omöjliga att uppnå, men möjliga att närma sig. Sådana mål kan få till stånd de djupgående förändringar som krävs för en hållbar och rättvis framtid samtidigt som de är acceptabla för de intressenter som berörs. Mål är ofta otydliga vad gäller vad som ingår eller inte. Vad gäller klimatmålen, exempelvis, är det ofta otydligt huruvida utsläpp från handel är inkluderade eller ej och vilket referensår en viss utsläppsminskning baseras på. Sådana avgränsningar bör synliggöras och helst diskuteras med avseende på hur de kan påverka till exempel andra länders utsläppsminskningar. Det finns också ett behov att skilja mål från medel för att uppnå målen, eftersom det gör det möjligt att formulera mål som kan uppnås på olika sätt. Ekonomisk tillväxt ses ofta som ett mål i sig, såsom i FN:s nya hållbarhetsmål (SDGs). Tillväxt borde dock betraktas som ett rent verktyg för att uppnå egentliga mål rörande, exempelvis, välbefinnande. Mål är också normativa och återspeglar både olika kulturella och etiska perspektiv på vad en god hälso- och sjukvård eller bostadsstandard bör vara. De underliggande värdena bör därför också synliggöras och ifrågasättas. Både inter- och intragenerationella rättviseperspektiv bör göras mer konkreta och tydliga så att sådana frågor kan följas upp. En bra start kan vara att förutom ett territoriellt perspektiv börja använda ett konsumtionsperspektiv vid upprättandet av klimat-eller markanvändningsmål, då effekten av vår konsumtion på andra länders miljö och hälsa har ökat under de senaste årtiondena. / <p>QC 20160901</p> / Beyond GDP Growth