Les exploitations de polyculture-élevage sont de plus en plus reconnues au plan international comme limitant les problèmes environnementaux tout en permettant une agriculture productive et économiquement viable. Les incitations à la spécialisation de la PAC et la diminution de la main d'oeuvre agricole les ont néanmoins marginalisées en Europe. Cette thèse vise à éclairer les conditions de maintien d'exploitations de polyculture-élevage durables. Un travail en partenariat avec des agriculteurs, maires et conseillers agricoles a été conduit sur un cas d'étude en zone défavorisée simple française, les Coteaux de Gascogne. Nos travaux ont montré que, malgré une forte variabilité entre exploitations, la polyculture-élevage locale était un bon compromis par rapport à la spécialisation pour une durabilité environnementale et économique. Une analyse des trajectoires passées des exploitations nous a permis d'éclairer quatre types de « chemins pour durer » en polyculture-élevage. Parmi ceux-ci, deux sont apparus pertinents pour le maintien de la polyculture-élevage en contexte incertain : « maximiser l'autonomie » et « diversifier les ateliers ». Sur la base de ces deux types de trajectoires, nous avons co-construit avec les partenaires deux scénarios techniques prospectifs. Pour le type « maximiser l'autonomie », implanter des intercultures fourragères basées sur des légumineuses permettrait de favoriser l'autonomie alimentaire du troupeau en maintenant la fertilité des sols. Pour le type « diversifier les ateliers », finir des génisses permettrait de les valoriser en circuit court. Ces scénarios ont été adaptés puis simulés sur des exploitations locales. Ce type de démarche a permis i) d'impliquer fortement les acteurs locaux via des réunions collectives et ii) une approche prospective originale fondée sur une étude rétrospective intégrant le temps long. / Mixed crop-livestock farms are again attracting worldwide interest, as they are considered to be a good way to limit environmental problems while allowing a productive and economically viable agriculture. The incentives of the Common Agricultural Policy and decreasing workforce availability nevertheless marginalized these farms in Europe. This thesis aims at understanding the conditions for a survival of sustainable mixed crop-livestock farms. A partnership process with farmers, mayors and technical advisers has been led in a French less favoured area, the Coteaux de Gascogne. Our work has shown that even if a wide variability existed between farms, local mixed crop-livestock farming was a good trade-off compared to farm specialization concerning an environmental and economic sustainability. An analysis of farm past trajectories allowed us to enlighten four “paths to last” in mixed crop-livestock farming. Two of these ones appeared to be suitable paths to maintain mixed crop-livestock farms in a uncertain context: “maximizing autonomy” and “diversification of production units”. On the basis of these two types of trajectories, we have co-constructed with local actors two technical prospective scenarios. In line with the type “maximizing autonomy”, forage legume intercropping could enable to autonomously feed the bovine herd while maintaining soil fertility. In line with the type “diversification of production units”, fattening heifers would allow a commercialization through short circuit. These scenarios have been adapted and then simulated on local farms. This type of approach allowed to i) strongly involve local actors through collective meetings and ii) an original future study based on a retrospective study integrating long time changes.

Nesta pesquisa foi estudada a prática de prospecção do futuro (estudos do futuro) como suporte à busca de informações para a decisão empresarial. Dentre os objetivos da pesquisa se encontram a busca de associações entre os métodos de prospecção e as diferentes categorias de informação, a avaliação da importância atribuída à atividade de prospecção, a identificação da frequência de uso e dos horizontes de tempo para os quais os métodos são utilizados, bem como a obtenção do grau de satisfação percebida com os resultados obtidos. A pesquisa é realizada por metodologia mista, quantitativa e qualitativa. Foram feitos levantamento de dados quantitativos e estudos de casos, e os resultados foram analisados de forma complementar. Na amostra de respondentes foi identificado que há associação entre a categoria da informação que está sendo prospectada e os métodos de estudos do futuro. Determinados métodos são mais utilizados para algumas categorias de informação, a exemplo do método de Cenários para buscar informações sobre Política e Sociedade. Por outro lado, determinadas combinações apresentaram menor uso, como o método Roadmap Tecnológico para buscar informação sobre Tecnologia. É atribuída elevada importância para a prospecção do futuro. Tal avaliação depende do tipo de decisão ser estratégico ou tático, e este último fator também influencia a frequência em que a atividade é praticada. O horizonte de tempo da prospecção também está associado aos métodos, sendo que Cenários apresenta maior uso para horizontes de mais de cinco anos. Há métodos que apresentam maior satisfação dos respondentes da amostra, sendo eles: Cenários, Previsões e Projeções de Executivos e Pesquisas de Mercado. Os métodos mais praticados são os que apresentam a possibilidade de interatividade pessoal, como Cenários e Previsões e Projeções de Executivos. Por outro lado, os métodos mais objetivos, como os que utilizam modelos matemáticos e os que possuem metodologia mais estruturada, não figuraram entre os mais praticados. Nos casos estudados foi identificado que os métodos mais praticados são baseados em opinião e julgamento e utilizam a interatividade pessoal como principal forma de condução. Houve também preocupação manifestada sobre a necessidade de estruturação da atividade nas empresas e sobre a prática da mesma seguindo recomendações metodológicas. / The use of future studies methodologies to provide information for decision making has been studied in this research. The objectives of the research are to analyze the association of methods to different information categories, to evaluate the importance of future studies, to identify the frequency of use of future studies and the time horizon in which the methods are used in searching information, and to gather users perceived satisfaction with the results. The research is implemented through a mixed-methods methodology, quantitative and qualitative. Quantitative survey and case studies have been made and combined results have been analyzed in a complementary approach. Results from the sample indicate that there is an association of methods with information categories. Some methods are more used to deal with some information categories, e.g. Scenario method with Political and Social information. On the other hand, some method-information category combinations are less used, e.g. Technology Roadmap method with Technology. Evaluation of the importance of future studies is high and depends on the decision type to be strategic or tactical. These types of decision influence the frequency of use of future studies methodologies. Time horizon is associated to methods, as in Scenario method to time horizons greater than five years ahead. There are methods with higher satisfaction ratings: Scenario, jury of Executive Opinion and Market Survey. The most used methods are the ones with high personal interaction possibility, e.g. Scenario and jury of Executive Opinion. On the other hand, objective methods, as those that make use of mathematical techniques or more structured methodologies are not among the most used. In the case studies results, methods based on judgment and opinion with high personal interaction are the most used. There were concerns about the need for more structure to deal with future studies in the company and also about its practice in accordance with methodological recommendations.

A trajetória e desenvolvimento de Corporate Foresight, uma competência organizacional que permite estabelecer os alicerces para a construção de vantagem competitiva no contexto estratégico das organizações, têm revelado uma corrente de pesquisa independente no campo de estudos do futuro. A evolução do interesse sobre o tema, nos âmbitos acadêmico e gerencial, remete à necessidade de ampliar suas fronteiras interdisciplinares, permeando estudos concernentes aos elos que envolvem os construtos que delineiam todo o processo estratégico preditivo e decisório. Nesse sentido, esta tese tem por objetivo a proposição de um framework que realça a integração entre a competência Corporate Foresight e as demais etapas do processo estratégico que culmina com o estabelecimento de vantagens competitivas, proporcionando diálogo entre o conhecimento teórico e a observação empírica. Metodologicamente, foi realizada uma extensa revisão bibliográfica sobre os assuntos pertinentes ao tema objeto da tese, a qual serviu de base para a proposição do framework conceitual. Complementarmente, realizou-se uma pesquisa empírica, a qual recorreu a métodos mistos, envolvendo uma etapa qualitativa, com o emprego de entrevistas em profundidade face a face, e uma fase quantitativa. A primeira etapa serviu de subsídio necessário para o desenvolvimento da fase quantitativa, a qual visou a elucidar a relação e integração entre Corporate Foresight e as demais etapas do processo estratégico direcionado à elaboração de estratégias que permitam a consecução de vantagem competitiva e crescimento da organização. Conclui-se que a tese pode proporcionar um avanço no conhecimento sobre o tema, trazendo implicações acadêmicas e gerenciais, pois apresenta um framework aderente com poder explicativo de Corporate Foresight para a obtenção de Vantagem Competitiva Futura, condição necessária, mas não suficiente, pois também constata que apenas a implementação de ações necessárias identificadas durante o período de planejamento estratégico não é suficiente para explicar o estabelecimento de Vantagem competitiva. / The trajectory and development of Corporate Foresight, an organizational competence that allows laying the foundations for the construction of competitive advantage in the strategic context of organizations, has revealed a current of independent research in the field of future studies. The evolution of interest on the subject, in the academic and managerial spheres, refers to the need to extend its interdisciplinary boundaries, permeating studies concerning the links that surround the constructs that outline the entire strategic predictive and decision-making process. In this sense, this thesis aims at proposing a framework that highlights the integration between the Corporate Foresight competence and the other stages of the strategic process that culminates in the establishment of competitive advantages, providing a dialogue between theoretical knowledge and empirical observation. Methodologically, an extensive bibliographical review was carried out on the subjects pertinent to the subject matter of the thesis, which served as a basis for the proposal of the conceptual framework. Also, empirical research was carried out, using mixed methods, involving a qualitative step, using in-depth face-to-face interviews, and a quantitative phase. The first stage served as a necessary subsidy for the development of the quantitative phase, which aimed to elucidate the relationship and integration between Corporate Foresight and the other stages of the strategic process directed to the elaboration of strategies that allow the achievement of competitive advantage and growth of the organization. It is concluded that the thesis can provide an advance in the knowledge on the subject, bringing academic and managerial implications, because it presents an adherent framework with the explanatory power of Corporate Foresight to obtain Future Competitive Advantage, a necessary but not sufficient condition since it also notes that only the implementation of necessary actions identified during the strategic planning period is not enough to explain the establishment competitive advantage.

O município de Jundiaí ocupou a posição de liderança na produção vitivinícola paulista desde o início da chegada dos imigrantes italianos por volta de 1930 até 2008 quando a quantidade de uva produzida começou a cair. Diante desse contexto de queda de produção, os atores do setor começaram a se mobilizar na tentativa de reverter o quadro. Diversos fatores parecem ter contribuído para que a tentativa de retomada do crescimento da atividade vitivinícola paulista não tenha obtido o sucesso esperado para a região de Jundiaí. Considerando-se o aparente baixo desempenho do setor no contexto paulista e mesmo nacional, este trabalho de pesquisa foi desenvolvido com o objetivo de propor quatro cenários para a vitivinicultura em Jundiaí em 2030 (\"desaparecimento\", \"desafio constante\", \"produção incentivada\" e \"renascimento\"), gerando informações que possam apoiar a formulação de políticas públicas voltadas para esta tradicional atividade agrícola do Estado de São Paulo. Como parte do processo de elaboração de cenários, este trabalho também atingiu o objetivo secundário de verificar quais são os fatores determinantes da decisão do vitivinicultor em Jundiaí de continuar ou não na atividade.de São Paulo. / The city of Jundiaí occupied the leading position in the São Paulo State wine production since the arrival of Italian immigrants around 1930 until 2008 when the amount of grape produced began to fall. In this context of falling production, industry actors have begun to mobilize in an attempt to reverse the situation. Several factors seem to have contributed for the attempted of Jundiaí region wine industry growth recovery not achieving the expected success. Considering the apparent poor performance of the sector within both national and São Paulo State context, this research was developed with the objective of proposing four scenarios with qualitative elements for the wine industry in Jundiaí in 2030 (\"disappearance\", \"constant challenge\", \"supported production\", \"rebirth\"), thus generating information that may support the formulation of public policies for this traditional agricultural activity of the São Paulo State. As part of the scenario development process and as secondary objective, this research has identified what are the determinants of Jundiaí vintner\'s decision to continue or not in the activity.

O município de Jundiaí ocupou a posição de liderança na produção vitivinícola paulista desde o início da chegada dos imigrantes italianos por volta de 1930 até 2008 quando a quantidade de uva produzida começou a cair. Diante desse contexto de queda de produção, os atores do setor começaram a se mobilizar na tentativa de reverter o quadro. Diversos fatores parecem ter contribuído para que a tentativa de retomada do crescimento da atividade vitivinícola paulista não tenha obtido o sucesso esperado para a região de Jundiaí. Considerando-se o aparente baixo desempenho do setor no contexto paulista e mesmo nacional, este trabalho de pesquisa foi desenvolvido com o objetivo de propor quatro cenários para a vitivinicultura em Jundiaí em 2030 (\"desaparecimento\", \"desafio constante\", \"produção incentivada\" e \"renascimento\"), gerando informações que possam apoiar a formulação de políticas públicas voltadas para esta tradicional atividade agrícola do Estado de São Paulo. Como parte do processo de elaboração de cenários, este trabalho também atingiu o objetivo secundário de verificar quais são os fatores determinantes da decisão do vitivinicultor em Jundiaí de continuar ou não na atividade.de São Paulo. / The city of Jundiaí occupied the leading position in the São Paulo State wine production since the arrival of Italian immigrants around 1930 until 2008 when the amount of grape produced began to fall. In this context of falling production, industry actors have begun to mobilize in an attempt to reverse the situation. Several factors seem to have contributed for the attempted of Jundiaí region wine industry growth recovery not achieving the expected success. Considering the apparent poor performance of the sector within both national and São Paulo State context, this research was developed with the objective of proposing four scenarios with qualitative elements for the wine industry in Jundiaí in 2030 (\"disappearance\", \"constant challenge\", \"supported production\", \"rebirth\"), thus generating information that may support the formulation of public policies for this traditional agricultural activity of the São Paulo State. As part of the scenario development process and as secondary objective, this research has identified what are the determinants of Jundiaí vintner\'s decision to continue or not in the activity.

The aim of this study has been to create a future scenario of what archiving might look like in the future. The main theory used in the study comes from future studies, but also a theory about the social impact of technology on work were used. The questions that were analysed were about the tasks of the archivist, the appearance of the archival institution, collaboration with other LAM institutions, knowledge requirements for the archivist and the amount of archivist positions. The method used in the study was scenario writing, which derives from future studies. The source material consisted among other things of regulations and laws related to archiving together with some archival manuals. The tasks of the future archivist will probably consist of the same tasks as those of present archivists who work with digital archiving, even though archivists probably forever also will have to work a little with paper records. The future archival institution will probably retain its paper records and keep its digital records on digital storage media. The digital records will probably be accessed on the Internet. The cooperation between archives, libraries and museums will probably be more developed in the future, even though they won't grow together totally. Archival education in the future will probably consist of two year master's programs. There are not much suggesting that the amount of archival jobs would decline in the future. This is a two years master's thesis in archival science. / Arkiv, bibliotek och museer i det framtida samhället

Background: The traditional approach of strategy emphasizes the role of planning as a main driver for success. Thus, in an environment with a low propensity for change, managers are able to predict the market evolution and therefore allocate wisely their resources in order to optimize the company's actions. However, markets are substantially more dynamic and managers are faced with higher and more complex level of uncertainty. In such climates, anticipating and understanding change is becoming increasingly relevant and top companies are not just competing in the present, but also into the future. Purpose: To uncover and discuss how companies can enhance their strategies through procedures for anticipating and more appropriately preparing for change. This will consist of understanding how companies gain foresight and relevant types of information about potential future changes, how companies understand what these changes mean in terms of their context and their future, and, finally, how they respond once they have gained an understanding. Methodology: The research has a qualitative approach and is based four case studies. Both secondary and primary data were used. The primary data collection was conducted with through structured interviews. Conclusions: Managers need not resort to costly or time consuming tools for enhancing their foresight insight and their strategies. Instead, they should constantly be aware of inherent biases, use counterfactual thinking and challenge their own mental models as well as the resulting views and understandings. Without doubting the mental models first and foremost, companies can innovate only incrementally. Furthermore, managers need to understand the potential of open foresight and the power within the company’s networks. In this way, they can distance themselves from the trend-impact-reaction cycle. Finally, companies should adopt a more anticipatory approach, rather than one which sustains the industry on order to better shield their strategies from disruptive change.

Nesta pesquisa foi estudada a prática de prospecção do futuro (estudos do futuro) como suporte à busca de informações para a decisão empresarial. Dentre os objetivos da pesquisa se encontram a busca de associações entre os métodos de prospecção e as diferentes categorias de informação, a avaliação da importância atribuída à atividade de prospecção, a identificação da frequência de uso e dos horizontes de tempo para os quais os métodos são utilizados, bem como a obtenção do grau de satisfação percebida com os resultados obtidos. A pesquisa é realizada por metodologia mista, quantitativa e qualitativa. Foram feitos levantamento de dados quantitativos e estudos de casos, e os resultados foram analisados de forma complementar. Na amostra de respondentes foi identificado que há associação entre a categoria da informação que está sendo prospectada e os métodos de estudos do futuro. Determinados métodos são mais utilizados para algumas categorias de informação, a exemplo do método de Cenários para buscar informações sobre Política e Sociedade. Por outro lado, determinadas combinações apresentaram menor uso, como o método Roadmap Tecnológico para buscar informação sobre Tecnologia. É atribuída elevada importância para a prospecção do futuro. Tal avaliação depende do tipo de decisão ser estratégico ou tático, e este último fator também influencia a frequência em que a atividade é praticada. O horizonte de tempo da prospecção também está associado aos métodos, sendo que Cenários apresenta maior uso para horizontes de mais de cinco anos. Há métodos que apresentam maior satisfação dos respondentes da amostra, sendo eles: Cenários, Previsões e Projeções de Executivos e Pesquisas de Mercado. Os métodos mais praticados são os que apresentam a possibilidade de interatividade pessoal, como Cenários e Previsões e Projeções de Executivos. Por outro lado, os métodos mais objetivos, como os que utilizam modelos matemáticos e os que possuem metodologia mais estruturada, não figuraram entre os mais praticados. Nos casos estudados foi identificado que os métodos mais praticados são baseados em opinião e julgamento e utilizam a interatividade pessoal como principal forma de condução. Houve também preocupação manifestada sobre a necessidade de estruturação da atividade nas empresas e sobre a prática da mesma seguindo recomendações metodológicas. / The use of future studies methodologies to provide information for decision making has been studied in this research. The objectives of the research are to analyze the association of methods to different information categories, to evaluate the importance of future studies, to identify the frequency of use of future studies and the time horizon in which the methods are used in searching information, and to gather users perceived satisfaction with the results. The research is implemented through a mixed-methods methodology, quantitative and qualitative. Quantitative survey and case studies have been made and combined results have been analyzed in a complementary approach. Results from the sample indicate that there is an association of methods with information categories. Some methods are more used to deal with some information categories, e.g. Scenario method with Political and Social information. On the other hand, some method-information category combinations are less used, e.g. Technology Roadmap method with Technology. Evaluation of the importance of future studies is high and depends on the decision type to be strategic or tactical. These types of decision influence the frequency of use of future studies methodologies. Time horizon is associated to methods, as in Scenario method to time horizons greater than five years ahead. There are methods with higher satisfaction ratings: Scenario, jury of Executive Opinion and Market Survey. The most used methods are the ones with high personal interaction possibility, e.g. Scenario and jury of Executive Opinion. On the other hand, objective methods, as those that make use of mathematical techniques or more structured methodologies are not among the most used. In the case studies results, methods based on judgment and opinion with high personal interaction are the most used. There were concerns about the need for more structure to deal with future studies in the company and also about its practice in accordance with methodological recommendations.

This study concerns the energy future of the county of Stockholm up until 2050 and describes how the energy consumption can be compared to today with the use of scenario methodology. Within energy future studies the backcasting approach is well known and has been put to use in this study. Due to the characteristics of backcasting the study is self-fulfilling, i.e. the future energy scenarios presented in this study satisfy the targets set up in this study. In the light of what may be the largest challenge of our time – the climate change - the aim of this study is to describe how the energy consumption in a fossil fuel free Stockholm county in the year of 2050 may be. The need to reduce the carbon emission to the atmosphere is extensive and of immediate urgency. One part of reducing carbon emission is to relinquish the fossil energy use which is attained either by reducing the energy consumption or switching to renewable energy use or a combination of both of these measures. The scenarios also describe the energy use per capita as well as carbon emissions per capita (due to energy use) besides being fossil fuel free. The energy use and carbon emission per capita is related to what is known as fair share of environmental space which may indicate if the per capita levels deduced in this study is consistent with a sustainable society. Several measures and their potential (to decrease the energy use or shifting into renewable energy fuels) are presented. The scope of measures reaches for example from energy efficiency to new infrastructure but also to reducing measures that reduce the need for example travels. The measures presented in the study are a reality today or will be in the near future, so the study takes on a non-technology optimistic approach. Several of the measures are combined into two different energy-futures for the year 2050 and their energy use is comparedto a business-as-usual-scenario. The business-as-usual-scenario describes the level of energy use in the County of Stockholm if no active measures are taken to reduce the energy use. The scenarios are presented with two different possible alternatives for the economic and population growth, i.e. alternative BAS (eng; base) and HÖG (eng; high). The study with its (only) two different future scenarios is not exhausting thepossible fossil fuel free futures of Stockholm County. Neither the measures nor the energy-futures have been evaluated from an economic or any other perspective. This means the study leave out whether the measures or the energy futures are feasible from an economic perspective or even desirable. The study also leaves out other perspectives like other environmental effects, health issues,equality, aesthetic etc. The aim of presenting different energy-futures of a fossil fuel free Stockholm county is to encourage, simulate stakeholders, policymakers and community citizens to further take an active interest and to start making the changes needed that leads to a fossil fuel free community. The energy-futures but also a few of the measures shows that the future energy use in Stockholm county in the year 2050 may decrease substantially compared 2003. As a result of this the need for renewable energy fuels (for replacing theuse of fossil energy fuels) is reduced. If Stockholm county may take an 10 % part of the bio energy that the whole of Sweden can produce in the future the fossil fuel free energy-futures presented in this study is secured. The energy-futures also shows that the energy use per capita may reach a sustainable level and also that the carbon emission per capita reaches a level far below the suggested level expressed by the Swedish government of 4,5 ton CO2 per capita. One step in the backcasting approach has been left out in this study, i.e. the path to the presented energy-futures. The reason for this is that it needs further analysis of the energy-futures from several other perspectives. As well as analysis over decision making processes, planning processes and different stakeholders involved. However the presented energy-futures may in some cases indicate what type of measures and decisions that needs to be taken and what kind of investments that are needed. Finally, the future is still yet unknown and the energy-futures presented in this study are in the long-time perspective which further increases the uncertainty ofthe scenarios because of uncertainty in collected data, calculations and assumptions made. On the other hand the aim of the study is not to present the most probable energy future but energy futures that fulfil the target of a fossil fuel free Stockholm county in the year 2050.

This essay examines visions of the future in Alex Garlands 2015 film Ex Machinausing critical futures studies and posthumanist theories. The aim is to make visible howfutures are constructed and how artificial bodies are coded based on ideas of the future.Through an image and discourse analysis, the essay shows how “Western” society isstructured and how it is expected to be structured in the future. While the previous researchmainly focuses on phenomenology and gender, this essay shows that intersectional methodscan be helpful in making visible how power structures influence how we construct and viewbodies. In addition, the analysis shows how images of the future are multifaceted andcomplex, while at the same time they reproduce hegemonic visions of the past, present andfuture. In summary, this essay shows how the visions of the future in Ex Machina areprimarily based on a “Western” scientific tradition that reproduces colonial and patriarchalideals, though they are consistently challenged by the existence and actions of the cyborgs.