Nesta pesquisa foi estudada a prática de prospecção do futuro (estudos do futuro) como suporte à busca de informações para a decisão empresarial. Dentre os objetivos da pesquisa se encontram a busca de associações entre os métodos de prospecção e as diferentes categorias de informação, a avaliação da importância atribuída à atividade de prospecção, a identificação da frequência de uso e dos horizontes de tempo para os quais os métodos são utilizados, bem como a obtenção do grau de satisfação percebida com os resultados obtidos. A pesquisa é realizada por metodologia mista, quantitativa e qualitativa. Foram feitos levantamento de dados quantitativos e estudos de casos, e os resultados foram analisados de forma complementar. Na amostra de respondentes foi identificado que há associação entre a categoria da informação que está sendo prospectada e os métodos de estudos do futuro. Determinados métodos são mais utilizados para algumas categorias de informação, a exemplo do método de Cenários para buscar informações sobre Política e Sociedade. Por outro lado, determinadas combinações apresentaram menor uso, como o método Roadmap Tecnológico para buscar informação sobre Tecnologia. É atribuída elevada importância para a prospecção do futuro. Tal avaliação depende do tipo de decisão ser estratégico ou tático, e este último fator também influencia a frequência em que a atividade é praticada. O horizonte de tempo da prospecção também está associado aos métodos, sendo que Cenários apresenta maior uso para horizontes de mais de cinco anos. Há métodos que apresentam maior satisfação dos respondentes da amostra, sendo eles: Cenários, Previsões e Projeções de Executivos e Pesquisas de Mercado. Os métodos mais praticados são os que apresentam a possibilidade de interatividade pessoal, como Cenários e Previsões e Projeções de Executivos. Por outro lado, os métodos mais objetivos, como os que utilizam modelos matemáticos e os que possuem metodologia mais estruturada, não figuraram entre os mais praticados. Nos casos estudados foi identificado que os métodos mais praticados são baseados em opinião e julgamento e utilizam a interatividade pessoal como principal forma de condução. Houve também preocupação manifestada sobre a necessidade de estruturação da atividade nas empresas e sobre a prática da mesma seguindo recomendações metodológicas. / The use of future studies methodologies to provide information for decision making has been studied in this research. The objectives of the research are to analyze the association of methods to different information categories, to evaluate the importance of future studies, to identify the frequency of use of future studies and the time horizon in which the methods are used in searching information, and to gather users perceived satisfaction with the results. The research is implemented through a mixed-methods methodology, quantitative and qualitative. Quantitative survey and case studies have been made and combined results have been analyzed in a complementary approach. Results from the sample indicate that there is an association of methods with information categories. Some methods are more used to deal with some information categories, e.g. Scenario method with Political and Social information. On the other hand, some method-information category combinations are less used, e.g. Technology Roadmap method with Technology. Evaluation of the importance of future studies is high and depends on the decision type to be strategic or tactical. These types of decision influence the frequency of use of future studies methodologies. Time horizon is associated to methods, as in Scenario method to time horizons greater than five years ahead. There are methods with higher satisfaction ratings: Scenario, jury of Executive Opinion and Market Survey. The most used methods are the ones with high personal interaction possibility, e.g. Scenario and jury of Executive Opinion. On the other hand, objective methods, as those that make use of mathematical techniques or more structured methodologies are not among the most used. In the case studies results, methods based on judgment and opinion with high personal interaction are the most used. There were concerns about the need for more structure to deal with future studies in the company and also about its practice in accordance with methodological recommendations.

Après la Seconde Guerre mondiale, surtout à partir du début des années 1960, et jusqu’à la fin des années 1980, plusieurs projets de recherche sur le futur ont été menés par des équipes internationales avec pour objectif la promotion d’une « conscience globale », soit un sentiment d'appartenance à une communauté humaine unique partageant un destin commun. Cette thèse examine certains de ces projets, en particulier ceux qui sont menés au sein d’organisations internationales appartenant au système des Nations Unies. Elle démontre que la pratique de la prospective a été, pendant la guerre froide, source de nouvelles conceptions du monde.Les recherches menées se situent à la croisée de plusieurs champs historiographiques dont les trois principaux sont l’histoire du futur, l’histoire intellectuelle transnationale et l’histoire de la globalité. Elles s’articulent autour de la problématique suivante : comment les études sur le futur menées au sein du système onusien pendant la guerre froide ont-elles contribué à faire émerger et à défendre certaines conceptions du global, faisant du futur du monde à la fois une catégorie d’exploration scientifique et une catégorie d’action pour un ensemble d’acteurs internationaux ? / After the Second World War, in particular from the 1960s to the 1980s, several futures studies projects were conducted by international teams. Their goal was to promote the shaping of a « global consciousness » : the sense of belonging to a unique human community sharing a common destiny. This dissertation analyzes some of those projects, particularly those that were conducted within the united nations system. It shows that futurology created new ways of envisioning the world during the Cold War.

Nesta pesquisa foi estudada a prática de prospecção do futuro (estudos do futuro) como suporte à busca de informações para a decisão empresarial. Dentre os objetivos da pesquisa se encontram a busca de associações entre os métodos de prospecção e as diferentes categorias de informação, a avaliação da importância atribuída à atividade de prospecção, a identificação da frequência de uso e dos horizontes de tempo para os quais os métodos são utilizados, bem como a obtenção do grau de satisfação percebida com os resultados obtidos. A pesquisa é realizada por metodologia mista, quantitativa e qualitativa. Foram feitos levantamento de dados quantitativos e estudos de casos, e os resultados foram analisados de forma complementar. Na amostra de respondentes foi identificado que há associação entre a categoria da informação que está sendo prospectada e os métodos de estudos do futuro. Determinados métodos são mais utilizados para algumas categorias de informação, a exemplo do método de Cenários para buscar informações sobre Política e Sociedade. Por outro lado, determinadas combinações apresentaram menor uso, como o método Roadmap Tecnológico para buscar informação sobre Tecnologia. É atribuída elevada importância para a prospecção do futuro. Tal avaliação depende do tipo de decisão ser estratégico ou tático, e este último fator também influencia a frequência em que a atividade é praticada. O horizonte de tempo da prospecção também está associado aos métodos, sendo que Cenários apresenta maior uso para horizontes de mais de cinco anos. Há métodos que apresentam maior satisfação dos respondentes da amostra, sendo eles: Cenários, Previsões e Projeções de Executivos e Pesquisas de Mercado. Os métodos mais praticados são os que apresentam a possibilidade de interatividade pessoal, como Cenários e Previsões e Projeções de Executivos. Por outro lado, os métodos mais objetivos, como os que utilizam modelos matemáticos e os que possuem metodologia mais estruturada, não figuraram entre os mais praticados. Nos casos estudados foi identificado que os métodos mais praticados são baseados em opinião e julgamento e utilizam a interatividade pessoal como principal forma de condução. Houve também preocupação manifestada sobre a necessidade de estruturação da atividade nas empresas e sobre a prática da mesma seguindo recomendações metodológicas. / The use of future studies methodologies to provide information for decision making has been studied in this research. The objectives of the research are to analyze the association of methods to different information categories, to evaluate the importance of future studies, to identify the frequency of use of future studies and the time horizon in which the methods are used in searching information, and to gather users perceived satisfaction with the results. The research is implemented through a mixed-methods methodology, quantitative and qualitative. Quantitative survey and case studies have been made and combined results have been analyzed in a complementary approach. Results from the sample indicate that there is an association of methods with information categories. Some methods are more used to deal with some information categories, e.g. Scenario method with Political and Social information. On the other hand, some method-information category combinations are less used, e.g. Technology Roadmap method with Technology. Evaluation of the importance of future studies is high and depends on the decision type to be strategic or tactical. These types of decision influence the frequency of use of future studies methodologies. Time horizon is associated to methods, as in Scenario method to time horizons greater than five years ahead. There are methods with higher satisfaction ratings: Scenario, jury of Executive Opinion and Market Survey. The most used methods are the ones with high personal interaction possibility, e.g. Scenario and jury of Executive Opinion. On the other hand, objective methods, as those that make use of mathematical techniques or more structured methodologies are not among the most used. In the case studies results, methods based on judgment and opinion with high personal interaction are the most used. There were concerns about the need for more structure to deal with future studies in the company and also about its practice in accordance with methodological recommendations.

Thesis is focused on one specific territory - Manětínsko and deals with the possibility of creating credible scenarios of its future development. Although our future will always remain hidden is important to consider its direction that we can expect, especially in today's world, where nature and environment are endangered on a global scale. Human society also stands on fragile basis/foundations and must face the economic and other crises. Therefore, it is important to think ahead about possible future development at all levels (local, regional and global) and to try to avoid events that could threaten the overall development/ the development progress. Scenarios are also an important tool for strategic planning and can offer different options for actions and decision making. The work is divided into theoretical and empirical part. The theoretical part deals primarily with the selected location itself and its most important characteristics. This part is an important basis for the empirical part, which besides other things is based on data obtained from interviews with selected respondents. Outline of these interviews arose on this theoretical basis. It was the 12 interviews that aimed to identify major problems and opportunities of Manětínsko, which will play role in the future development of the...

'Museum Communication: Learning, Interaction and Experience' is a study of how museums have evolved and handled their communication approaches at both theoretical and practical levels. It discusses questions like; how has museum communication developed? What influences do these developments have on museology and its related disciplines? How will museum communication develop in the future? These are questions closely connected with essential concepts of learning, interaction, participation and experience, which will be discussed throughout the thesis. Learning and exhibition theories will be considered alongside discussions of epistemological and philosophical approaches, interpretation, and social development of museological research. The research forms a discourse analysis of museums' own views and opinions of these issues through replies of a questionnaire. It also focuses on specific case studies and examples in order to combine theoretical definitions and empirical approaches with museological developments. To form a deeper understanding of how museological communication is developing, the research includes interviews with professionals of philosophy and storytelling as well. Finally, the approaches are summarised in a new museum model developed from future studies. This model, called 'The Transformative Museum', identifies essential points in which museums have developed their communication practices and theories, and discusses how these may develop in the future. As the responsibilities of museum curators develop, museums have to embrace the concepts of transformation and flexibility too. Inquiries, research, learning and participation have to be transformed into all kinds of experiences in order to respond to changing needs and flexible structures of communities and societies. The transformative museum will have to acknowledge past traditions, current trends and future opportunities simultaneously in order to become a museum of both present and future relevance for all kinds of visitors and users.

In diesem Beitrag diskutieren wir die Szenariotechnik als partizipatives Instrument zum Umgang mit komplexen, nichtlinearen Systemen. Exemplarisch berichten wir über ein transdisziplinär angelegtes Projekt zur Transformation der Landwirtschaft. Anhand dessen skizzieren wir folgend den Nutzen der Szenariotechnik als auch die Notwendigkeit eines integrativen und inklusiven Vorgehens, um der Komplexität und der damit verbundenen Unsicherheit zur Modellierung zukünftiger Systeme zu begegnen. Das damit eng verbundene Verständnis von nachhaltiger Entwicklung als Zielformulierung verstehen wir als stetigen Aushandlungsprozess und veränderliches Ziel. In diesem Kontext legen wir das Entwerfen multipler Zukünfte als größten Vorteil der Szenariomethode dar. Ebenso argumentieren wir, dass die Szenariotechnik den Ansprüchen an einen nachhaltigkeitsfokussierten Modellierungsansatz gerecht wird und beleuchten sowohl Potenziale als auch Herausforderungen. Der Fokus liegt dabei auf dem Potenzial, mit Hilfe der Szenariotechnik das Wissen unterschiedlicher Akteure aus Wissenschaft und Praxis zu verbinden und zu kommunizieren. Die hier vorgestellte Szeanriotechnik adressiert dabei Systemwissen, Zielwissen und Transformationswissen mit dem Ziel, dieses als partizipativ generierte Erzählung zusammenzuführen.

Nach der Herleitung und Skizzierung der ‚szenariobasierten Delphi-Studie’ als Untersuchungsmethode und Präsentation des Forschungsdesigns werden Konzepte von Wissensmanagement über einen Literatur-Review in den Kontext des aktuellen Forschungsstandes gestellt. Diese Bestandsaufnahme der Gegenwart ist in erster Linie abgeleitet aus Fachveröffentlichungen zum Wissensmanagement im Allgemeinen und denen der BID-Community im Besonderen. Welche Rolle spielt Wissensmanagement gegenwärtig in der bibliothekarischen Praxis Öffentlicher Bibliotheken der im Untersuchungsfokus stehenden Nationen? Was verbindet die Arbeit mit Wissensmanagement in den Öffentlichen Bibliotheken der beiden Nationen und (wo) sind Unterschiede zu finden? Diese Verifizierung des Status quo ist nur ein Teil der vorliegenden Arbeit, Schwerpunkt bildet der Blick in die kommende Zeit. Hat Wissensmanagement eine Zukunft in der Öffentlichen Bibliothek? Wenn ja, wie sieht diese aus und in welcher Intention wird Wissensmanagement eingesetzt? Stellt es mehr als nur ein Instrument der innerbetrieblichen Organisationsoptimierung dar? Wird Wissensmanagement im Sinne des Erwerbs von Demokratiekompetenz an den Endkunden quasi als Werkzeugkoffer weitergegeben? Hilft es den Öffentlichen Bibliotheken im Sinne einer systemischen kommunalen Legitimierung? Mit den Methoden Szenariotechnik und Delphi-Studie werden auf Basis der Aussagen ausgewählter Wissensexperten aus den Großstadtbibliotheken beider Länder Trendprojektionen erstellt, die ihrerseits in einem die Studie abschließenden konsensualen Szenario münden. Auf dem Weg dorthin werden im Laufe von iterativen Befragungen zudem für die Praxis adaptierbare Handlungsoptionen für die Öffentliche Bibliothek der Zukunft generiert und anhand ausgewählter Expertenaussagen im Sinne von Best-Practise-Beispielen und -Ideen in die Arbeit integriert. / Following the establishment and outline evaluation of the “scenario based Delphi-Study” as a medium of examination and presentation of research design, knowledge management concepts were put into context in alignment with the current research status by means of a literary review. This inventory of present conditions is primarily based on scientific publications on the subject of knowledge management in general and those of the LIS commu-nity in particular. What is the current role of knowledge management in the practical operation of public libraries in the two countries that provided the study focus? Which areas in the application of knowledge management in public libraries show similarities, and where can we identify specific differences? Whilst verification of the status quo is part of the study, the main focus is on looking into the future. Does knowledge management actually have a future within public libraries? If so, what does this future look like and what does it hold for the intended application of knowledge management? Will knowledge management become more than an instrument aimed at optimising organisational potential, and as a result develop into a quasi-education tool to be passed on directly to the end consumer? Will it serve to assist public libraries in achieving a sense of systemic, communal legitimacy? Through the application of the Scenario-technique and Delphi-study concept trend projections were established for both countries based on the statements by selected ‘knowledge experts’ of public libraries in both Germany and the UK, and subsequently fused into a conclusive consensual scenario. Along the way, practical and adaptable application options for the public library of the future were generated and integrated with a view to best practice examples and ideas from the selected expert testimonials.

Ce travail vise à mettre en avant une éthique du futur à l’ère des technologies du vivant à partir de la biologie philosophique de Hans Jonas en passant au crible a priori les fondements des technosciences. Jonas estime que le problème n’est pas la technique elle-même qui soit en cause mais l’identité qu’elle accorde à l’homme dans cette logique instrumentale envahissante, en d’autres termes, le matérialisme réductionniste. Le problème aussi n’est pas les effets visibles inquiétants et désastreux de la technique mais l’ontologie qu’elle inspire. Outre les manifestations réelles de destruction qu’elle génère, c’est l’être qu’elle confère ou plus exactement dont elle prive l’homme qui est catastrophique. L’homme finit par se considérer comme un fond exploitable. Il s’agira donc de formuler une éthique qui a pour soubassement une biologie philosophique qui récuse une anthropologie mécaniste d’inspiration matérialiste, une ontologie du pas-encore qui fonde les sciences modernes. Réduire l’homme à des lois physico-chimiques, c’est violer notre individualité. Le métabolisme est la preuve de notre individuation. Dans la matière, gît l’esprit. Au-delà de l’anthropomorphisme qui se dégage, l’homme est le seul animal symbolisant doué d’une conscience réflexive. Une responsabilité politique s’impose pour protéger l’intégrité et l’image de l’homme à l’ère des technologies du vivant qui espèrent améliorer ou modifier l’espèce humaine. Mais cette responsabilité politique qui promeut « un marxisme désenchanté » ne tardera pas à renforcer voire devenir une rationalité instrumentale et idéologique à l’image du lyssenkisme. Une autre responsabilité s’impose : une responsabilité scientifique formulée par Charles De Koninck qui interpelle et invite les scientifiques à ne pas sacrifier l’être humain par leurs recherches sur l’autel des subventions financières, du dualisme au relent matérialiste. La science, dans son élan est invitée à tenir compte du facteur « humain ». Cette responsabilité scientifique va au-delà des règles de bonnes pratiques et déontologiques des comités et des expertises scientifiques. Elle nécessite une éducation scientifique pour une science citoyenne pour éviter une science aveugle et idéologique. Bref, à partir de ces paradigmes, nous voulons montrer que les rêves de l’amélioration, de l’augmentation des performances de l’espèce humaine sont des chimères. / This work intends to highlight the ethics of the future in the era of technologies of the living being starting from Jonas and after scrutinizing in the first place the foundations of technosciences that is the emerging reductionism. Just like Heidegger, Jonas is of the view that the problem is not technology itself that it should be blamed but the identity it grants man in that overwhelming instrumental logic, in other words, reductionist materialism. The issue is neither the alarming, disastrous and visible effects of technology but the ontology it generates. Beside true manifestations of destruction it generates, it is the being it confers, or more specifically from which it deprives man who is catastrophic. It is important henceforth to evaluate that reductionist science in terms of a philosophical biology that will become basis to ethics and evaluation criterion for convergent technologies. It is about ethics that has philosophical biology for basis, which challenges materialism-inspired mechanist anthropology, a not-yet ontology that founds modern sciences. Reducing man to laws that rule Physics is violating our individuality. Metabolism (the other name for ontology in Jonas’s terms) is evidence of our individuation. Beyond the anthropomorphism that appears, man remains the only symbolizing animal, the only one to be gifted with introspective consciousness. From that symbolic dimension proceeds culture along with phenomena of self-consciousness. A political responsibility becomes imperative from that philosophical biology to protect man’s integrity and image in the era of technologies of the living that intend to improve or modify human race on the behalf of perfectibility and from processes of reductionist mechanism. But that political responsibility that promotes “a disillusioned Marxism” will not be long in reinforcing, even becoming an instrumental and ideological rationality in the image of lyssenkism. Another form of responsibility becomes imperative: a scientific responsibility framed by Charles De Koninck who calls out to and invites scientists to not give up the human being through their research on the altar of financial subsidies, materialist stench dualism. Science, in its speed is invited to take into account the “human” factor. That scientific responsibility goes beyond behaviorist and deontological rules of scientific committees and expertise. It requires a scientific education for a citizen-based science in order to avoid a blind and ideological science. In a nutshell, from those paradigms, we intend to show that dreams of improvement and increase of achievements of human race are mere illusion.