With our growing population, we are facing great challenges when it comes to our water consumption. As Stockholm is growing in both population and size, the city’s provider of drinking water, Stockholm Water and Waste, is looking into approaches like smart systems and persuasive strategies that tries to help citizens use water for domestic purposes in more sustainable ways. Some see these approaches as a natural part of the future of urban development and they have already been implemented at several locations around the globe. However, smart systems and persuasive strategies have seen an upswing in critique lately and it have been argued that they tend to treat householders as something separated from the socio-technical context they live in. As a response to this critique, a wide range of suggestions for future development of smart systems and persuasive strategies have been made. While a lot of these suggestions are based on studies that evaluates already existing systems and tend to focus on how to improve them, they still convey a scenario where these systems are a natural part of our future urban lives. However, little research has been made that tries to understand the citizens’ perspective on these systems before they are implemented. By using a future study approach that includes citizens in reflective and exploratory activities of non-existing future smart systems for managing domestic water services, this study aims at exploring their concerns and expectations of said systems and questions the wants and needs for them begin with. This study reveals that citizens might have great concerns when it comes to questions of privacy and control and how smart systems and persuasive strategies run the risk of problematizing individuals. This study also reveals that citizens might be more interested in negotiating and improving current services and infrastructure than having technology negotiate their everyday lives. / Vår ökande befolkning ställer oss inför stora utmaningar när det kommer till vår vattenkonsumtion. Då Stockholm växer både till befolkningsmängd och yta undersöker Stockholm Vatten och Avfall, stadens leverantör av dricksvatten, tillvägagångssätt som smarta system och övertalningsstrategier för att hjälpa medborgare bli mer hållbara i sin vattenförbrukning. En del ser dessa tillvägagångssätt som en naturlig del av framtidens urbana utveckling och de har redan blivit implementerade på flera platser runt omkring i världen. Smarta system och övertalningsstrategier har dock sett en uppsjö av kritik på sistone och det har sagts att de tenderar att behandla personer som något separerat från den sociotekniska kontext de lever i. Som en respons till denna kritik har det tagits fram ett antal förslag för den framtida utvecklingen av både smarta system och de övertalningsstrategier de använder sig av. Då många av förslagen som lagts fram är baserade på studier som utvärderar redan existerande system, samt tenderar att fokusera på hur dessa kan förbättras, förutsätter de fortfarande ett scenario där smarta system och övertalningsstrategier är en naturlig del av vår framtida urbana miljö. Dock har endast mycket lite forskning gjorts i syfte att utröna medborgarnas perspektiv på dessa system innan de implementeras. Genom att inkludera medborgare i reflekterande och utforskande aktiviteter angående ännu icke-existerande smarta system som handskas med vattenförbrukningen i hemmet, syftar denna studie till att utforska medborgarnas förväntningar, farhågor och inställning till sagda system och ifrågasätter huruvida dessa system är något de över huvud taget vill ta del av. Denna studie visar hur medborgare kan hysa stor oro när det kommer till frågor berörande kontroll och datasekretess, men även hur smarta system och övertalningsstrategier riskerar att problematisera individer. Studien visar även på möjligheten att medborgare kan vara mer intresserade av att förhandla och förbättra redan existerande tjänster och infrastruktur än att låta teknologi förhandla om deras levnadsvanor.

Livestock agriculture provides society with many forms of nutritious, accessible, and delicious foods. On the other hand, livestock agriculture, and cattle in particular, have been shown to be unsustainable in their current form from environmental, social, and economic perspectives. Taking both of these statements as my premise, in this thesis I turn to the field of Future Studies to explore future of dairy farming in Oregon. I use semi-structured stakeholder interviews to understand industry stakeholder perceptions of plausible and desirable futures for the industry. The concepts of plausible and desirable futures are strongly connected to sustainable futures as they look both at what is possible for the future and consider the normative question of what is valued. I used thematic analysis to explore my data, identifying salient ideas and patterns from my interviews with stakeholders. I found three plausible-desirable outcomes for the Oregon dairy industry; human and animal welfare improve, some small and medium sized farm stay afloat, and the industry reduces its environmental impact. These outcomes were not straightforward, however. For example, in some cases, the paths participants identified to reach one plausible-desirable outcome, would make another less likely to occur. The public and farmers themselves were seen as key to reaching plausible-desirable futures, along with scientists, researchers, and interest groups. Identifying stakeholders’ plausible and desirable futures and influential actors to reach these futures is a first step towards developing strategies to reach such futures.

Thesis (MPhil)--Stellenbosch University, 2009. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: See full text for abstract. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Sien volteks vir opsomming.

Diss. Linköping : Linköpings universitet, 2005.

Le concept d’anthropologie prospective élaboré dans les années 1950 par Gaston Berger, fondateur de la prospective en France, n’a pas eu la postérité qu’il mérite. Il a été contourné par les prospectivistes, qui ont conduit la prospective dans les parages du marketing, et oublié par les philosophes, qui font trop rarement de l’avenir un véritable sujet de réflexion. Or au début du XXIe siècle, après la prise de conscience de l’entrée de l’humanité dans l’ère de l’anthropocène, ce concept représente peut-être le meilleur fil conducteur pour l’élaboration de la toute nouvelle responsabilité prospective qui pourrait faire contrepoids aux stratégies suicidaires des principaux acteurs de la civilisation occidentale – stratégies exclusivement guidées par les objectifs de puissance technologique ou militaire, de croissance économique ou de recherche de profit à court terme – stratégies qui sacrifient ostensiblement l’avenir de l’humanité au bénéfice du présent ou du court terme. La présente thèse cherche à dessiner l’infrastructure conceptuelle de cette responsabilité prospective qui reste à imaginer et à structurer. La Table des Situations Stratégiques esquissée ici représente un premier pas dans cette direction. Elle ambitionne d’aboutir à une grille d’analyse et d’évaluation des stratégies déployées par les principaux acteurs de la civilisation occidentale sur la surface du globe. Elle vise à consolider l’idée d’un « permis d’engager l’avenir de l’humanité », c’est-à-dire l’idée d’un contrôle démocratique de la pertinence des stratégies des entreprises transnationales ou des gouvernements, sur tous les sujets qui concernent l’avenir à long terme de l’humanité. / The anthropological concept of perspective futures developed in the 1950’s by Gaston Berger (the founder of future studies in France) was not accorded the posterity it deserves. It was overlooked by prospectivists that led future studies into marketing gimmicks and forgotten by philosophers that rarely engage in true reflection on the subject. Or during the beginning of the 21st century, after becoming aware of the human’s entry into Anthropocene era this concept represent possibly the best guide in preparing all the new prospective responsibility that could counter dangerous strategies of major actors of western civilization-strategies that are exclusively guided by military force or technological advancement, economic growth or the pursuit of short term profit-strategies that sacrifices ostensible the future of humanity or the benefit of the present or of the short term. The present thesis attempts to design conceptual framework of this prospective responsibility that rest on imagination. The foundation of the strategic situation initially sketched out here represents the first step in that direction. It attempts to develop analysis and evaluation of strategies employed by the principle actors of western civilization in the world. It attempts to consolidate ideas on one hand, that enable one to engaged in the future of mankind, that is the idea of a democratic control of series of strategies of transnational firms or of governments, particularly, the subjects that concern the future of humanity.

No description available.

Some innovations are termed ‘disruptive’, a designation that is normally applied to technology; examples include computers, digital cameras, and mobile phones. The term can also be applied to groups of workers, particularly if they are able to offer specific technical capabilities within a market at lower cost, but broadly equal and effective to that offered by traditional products or services. Paramedics could be described in this way and are a newly professionalised group, with distinctive capabilities in terms of responding to the needs of not just the acutely ill and injured, but increasingly those patients with undifferentiated non-life- threatening conditions, which increasingly make up the bulk of 999 call demand. The key to their transition from an artisan, skilled worker to professional status is the acquisition of certain ‘hallmarks’. Perhaps the most important of these is the completion of more prolonged education that affords the opportunity to graduate with enhanced decision-making and other clinical skills in order to meet the needs of the full spectrum of patients in the pre-hospital setting. Paramedics were surveyed to determine how they rated their ‘traditional’ preparation and to establish what their attitudes were to a more educationally based approach. Paramedics themselves proved to be realistic regarding shortcomings in established training and education systems, while also being strongly motivated to learn more within a higher education setting, particularly if this additional effort would result in being able to offer a wider range of care to their patients. During the study, major changes in the health care environment and the role of the Ambulance Service took place, leading to a requirement to undertake a second phase of research. This took the form of ‘Horizon Scanning’ in an attempt to detect ‘signals’, themes and trends in relation to newly emerging ‘competitors’ to the paramedic role. These included nursing, new practitioners and most critically, the rapidly emerging medical sub-speciality of pre-hospital care, staffed by medical personnel on a pattern found specifically in some European countries, sometimes termed the ‘Franco-German’ model/System (FGM/S). Hitherto, the model of provision in the UK had followed the ‘Anglo-American’ model/System (AAM/S), approach, with paramedics providing direct patient care in the field and medical staff largely involved in medical oversight, teaching, clinical governance and other higher level roles. As part of this research, the evidence base for change was examined and consideration given to the factors that might help clarify what the likely situation could be in 2030 in respect of ambulance services, pre-hospital care and paramedics. This future is uncertain, but factors have been identified that would militate in favour of one or other model prevailing, with close links established between educational preparation, system design, career structure and the continuance of the professionalisation process favouring paramedic progression. However, other factors, most specifically professional power, the absence of a clear evidence base and an apparent reluctance to clearly acknowledge this in some respects, lead to the conclusion that the future of pre-hospital care remains uncertain and contested, but also potentially amenable to a well-directed influencing strategy.

Descreve uma investigação realizada junto a professores do Ensino Médio sobre percepções relacionadas à inovação curriculares na forma de estudos do futuro. Objetivo: Em primeiro lugar, identificar de que maneira os professores entendem o conceito de futuro em suas vidas. Em segundo lugar, identificar percepções e atitudes em relação aos estudos do futuro e à implementação destes junto a alunos do Ensino Médio da cidade de São Paulo. Em terceiro, orientar projetos nas escolas locais que adotassem essa abordagem. Método: Em sua primeira fase, questionário estruturado enviado a 200 professores participantes, no período de março a junho de 2007. Em sua segunda fase, oficina de apresentação realizada nas escolas investigadas e outro questionário estruturado enviado a 80 professores, no período de junho a agosto de 2007. Em sua terceira fase, reuniões com professores e coordenadores das escolas adotantes. Resultados: A primeira fase mostrou que os professores percebem o futuro como um período de tempo entre 10 a 20 anos do presente. Existe uma mistura de otimismo e preocupação em relação ao futuro e a crença de que é necessário um alto grau de preparação para este. A segunda fase mostrou que os professores percebem a relevância em estudar o futuro, principalmente para si mesmos. Entre as ferramentas apresentadas na oficina, técnicas como elaboração de cenários e consulta a especialistas lhes pareceram mais claras e de maior facilidade e relevância para a introdução junto a seus alunos. A terceira fase incluiu a adoção projetos multidisciplinares, propostas curriculares e atividades isoladas, por parte de algumas das escolas. Conclusão: Os professores mostram um grau de preocupação e interesse elevado na preparação de seus alunos para o futuro. Os estudos do futuro oferecem uma alternativa viável para a introdução de projetos e atividades de caráter multidisciplinar que ajudam os jovens a planejar e se preparar para o futuro. / It describes an investigation carried out with Secondary School teachers on their perceptions regarding curriculum innovations using a futures studies approach. Aim: Firstly, to identify the ways in which teachers view the concept of future in their lives. Secondly, identify the perceptions and attitudes regarding futures studies and their introduction in the Secondary School classroom in the city of São Paulo. Thirdly, supervise projects in the local schools which adopted such approach. Methodology: In its first phase, a structured questionnaire was sent to the 200 participant teachers, between March and June 2007. In its second phase, a workshop to introduce future studies in the schools under investigation was held, followed by another structured questionnaire, between June and August 2007. In its third phase, meetings with teachers and pedagogical coordinators were held. Results: The first phase showed teachers perceive the future as a period between 10 and 20 years from the present. There is a mix of optimism and worry and a belief that a high level of preparation is required for this future. The second phase showed that teachers perceive the relevance of future studies, particularly for themselves. Among the tools presented in the workshop, the creation of scenarios and the use of expert opinion were those which seemed clearer, more relevant and of easier introduction in the classroom. The third phase included the adoption of cross curricular projects, proposals for curriculum change and attempts at different activities by some of the schools. Conclusion: Teachers show a high level of interest and worry in the preparation of their students for the future. Future studies offer a viable alternative for the introduction of projects and classroom activities of a cross curricular nature that will help young people to plan and prepare for the future.

O setor cosmético brasileiro gerou mais de 5,6 milhões de oportunidades de trabalho por todo o Brasil e faturou US$ 43 bilhões em vendas ao consumidor no ano 2013. Além disso, os cuidados cosméticos, especialmente aqueles destinados à pele, promovem o bem-estar e uma melhor qualidade de vida entre os usuários, oferecendo benefícios psicossociais e também para a saúde, como a proteção solar. No Brasil, a maioria das empresas no setor cosmético é de micro, pequeno ou médio porte, com capacidade inovadora baixa e investimentos em pesquisa e desenvolvimento incipientes, de modo que seu posicionamento futuro é bastante incerto diante da alta competitividade. Neste trabalho, buscou-se produzir material científico destinado a orientar os empreendedores e gestores das micro, pequenas e médias empresas (MPMEs) brasileiras do segmento de cuidados com a pele a traçar suas estratégias de diferenciação tecnológica, frente aos concorrentes de grande porte, até o ano 2025. A pesquisa, predominantemente qualitativa e preditiva, foi fundamentada na metodologia dos estudos prospectivos e foi estruturada nas seis fases seguintes: A) análise do macroambiente do setor cosmético de cuidados com a pele; B) identificação das oportunidades de inovação tecnológica em cuidados com a pele; C) análise de pedidos de patente relacionados aos cuidados com a pele no Brasil; D) identificação das tecnologias-chave para os cuidados com a pele até o ano 2025; E) desenvolvimento de cenários tecnológicos para as MPMEs do segmento de cuidados com a pele com projeções até o ano 2025 e F) proposição de um método de desenvolvimento de cenários orientados pela identidade organizacional para empresas com gestão centralizada no empreendedor. A fase A elucidou a dinâmica do setor cosmético brasileiro de cuidados com a pele, identificando convergências entre diferentes indústrias de bens de consumo. As fases B e C resultaram na elaboração de um novo sistema de classificação composto por dez categorias de oportunidades de inovação tecnológica em produtos para os cuidados com a pele, o qual foi útil para identificar as oportunidades tecnológicas mais exploradas pelo setor. Na fase D, evidenciaram-se sete grupos tecnológicos de maior potencial de mercado e de maior viabilidade tecnológica para o segmento de cuidados com a pele no Brasil, até o ano 2025. A fase E resultou em quatro cenários prospectivos para o desenvolvimento e diferenciação tecnológica das MPMEs cosméticas brasileiras, a citar: \'Cosméticos am-pm\'; \'Selo verde e amarelo\'; \'Beleza para os durões\' e \'Cabeça nas nuvens\'. Enfim, na fase F, propôs-se um método inédito de construção de cenários prospectivos orientados pela identidade organizacional, adaptado às empresas com poucos colaboradores. Este estudo fornece projeções e inspirações que podem orientar as MPMEs cosméticas no Brasil a definir visões de futuro e estratégias tecnológicas que possibilitem sua diferenciação frente aos grandes concorrentes, bem como a afirmação da identidade que desejam disseminar. / The Brazilian cosmetic industry generated over 5.6 million job opportunities throughout the country and raised US$ 43 billion in sales to consumer in 2013. Moreover, cosmetic cares, especially skin care, promote well-being and a better quality of life among users, offering both psychosocial and health benefits (like sun protection). In Brazil, most of the companies in the cosmetic business are entrepreneurial, small or medium-sized enterprises with low innovative capacity and deficient investments in research and development. Therefore, the future of those companies is highly uncertain due to fierce competition. In this work, we intended to produce scientific material for guiding entrepreneurs and managers in entrepreneurial, small and medium-sized companies (ESMEs) of the Brazilian skin care industry when drawing their technological distinction strategies towards largesized competitors up to the year 2025. Predominantly qualitative and predictive, this research was based in the future studies methodology and organized in the following six phases: A) environmental scanning of the skin care cosmetic industry; B) identification of the technological opportunities for innovation in skin care; C) analysis of skin care-related patent documents filled in Brazil; D) identification of key technologies for skin care up to the year 2025; E) development of technological scenarios for the skin care ESMEs up to the year 2025 and F) proposal of a method to develop identity-oriented scenarios for organizations with entrepreneur-centered management. Phase A pointed the dynamics of the Brazilian skin care cosmetic industry, showing some convergence among different consumer goods industries. Phases B and C resulted in a novel ten-category classification system for technological opportunities to innovate in skin care products, useful to detect the most explored technological opportunities in this industry. Phase D presented seven technological groups of high potential market volume and high technological feasibility in the Brazilian skin care industry, up to the year 2025. Phase E allowed us to produce four prospective scenarios related to technological development and distinction in the Brazilian cosmetic ESMEs, that is, \'Am-Pm Cosmetics\'; Green and Yellow Seal\'; \'Beauty for Tough Guys\' and \'Head in the Clouds\'. Finally, in Phase F, we proposed a novel method to develop identity-oriented prospective scenarios adapted to companies with few members in the staff. This study provides foresight and inspiration that may guide Brazilian cosmetic ESMEs to establish their future vision and technological strategies in order to become distinct towards large-sized competitors, as well as to affirm and circulate their desired identity.

<p>People use a variety of means to orient themselves towards the future. A more organised approach to handling the future known as "futures studies" is often used in a variety of contexts including long-term planning within large organisations. In the effort to enhance the quality of such studies, there have been arguments for better methods (which makes sense), but methods may not be the most important aspect in the production of futures studies. Greater theoretical awareness in the substantive questions upon which the study is based is more important. To that end, the intent of this dissertation is to infuse a keener awareness of fundamental assumptions in futures studies and contribute to increasing their quality.</p><p>One objective of the dissertation is to formulate a method or procedure to analyse the futures studies of large organisations, apply it to two empirical cases and thereafter analyse its strengths and weaknesses. The method I discuss and develop extensively in this work consists of an analytical framework that focuses on three aspects of each future study: its architecture, its relationship to a few of the key future issues of our time and its assumptions regarding our views on society, humanity and technology. A second objective is to systematically study future documents from two large organisations and attempt to clarify motives, orientation, methodology and distinguishing characteristics in their future processes. The cases I have chosen are the Swedish Armed Forces and the telecommunications company Ericsson, which were both in a period of transition around the mid 1990s.</p><p>The dissertation shows how the method has been used to bring to the fore and clarify central ideas in futures studies, identify ambiguities and fuzzy thinking and to show and expose more covert assumptions. The analysis also illustrates that certain aspects of the model have been observed in the empirical material, other ideas are found to a lesser extent and certain perspectives are entirely absent. The paper stresses that the model developed has both strengths and weaknesses, but the overall assessment is that it was well-balanced and maintains appropriate depth in relation to desired efficiency. The study shows that the analytical method is relevant and adequate to understand and describe the direction and content of futures studies and in so doing enhance their quality.</p>