Background: Foresight is a vague concept with several definitions. There is barely any existing practical evidence of how it should be conducted or what effect it could have on a company’s performance. Due to the lack of research done, a study within the field was justified. Purpose: The purpose of the paper is to investigate and measure if, and how, foresight practices influence company’s financial performance. Method and theory: A theoretical framework was established in order to compile knowledge about the field. These theories were used as a basis for upcoming in-depth interviews. To make foresight measureable the foresight maturity model was applied in order to assess the company’s foresight practices and to compare it with financial performance. The financial performance was assessed by doing an archival analysis on the company’s annual reports. Findings: The study indicated that foresight practices were limited within the studied companies. However, all the companies used it to some extent. Conclusion: The practices of foresight are greatly contextual and a clear relationship between how the foresight practices affect financial performance is difficult to map out and is need of further research. Tendencies of foresight practices influencing financial performance were however noticed. These tendencies indicated that there is a positive relationship between foresight practices and financial performance.

This Master's Thesis is focused on technological foresight in the banking industry in Europe. It includes consecutive two parts. The first one is theoretical and focuses on defining the terms necessary for the development of technological foresight, stated criteria, triggers and terms necessary for the development of analysis of potential technological problems and their solutions. The second part is practical and it includes the technological foresight, analysis of trends that will disrupt banking and introduce a vision of personal banking product of the future. A comparison of product vision to current trends and if those can be considered disruptive follow this part. The last part of the thesis includes diffusion criteria of innovation as according to the Rogers's Model, a set of triggers after which the defined investment fund can consider an investment into technology, and an analysis of potential technological issues with proposed solutions.

Background: The traditional approach of strategy emphasizes the role of planning as a main driver for success. Thus, in an environment with a low propensity for change, managers are able to predict the market evolution and therefore allocate wisely their resources in order to optimize the company's actions. However, markets are substantially more dynamic and managers are faced with higher and more complex level of uncertainty. In such climates, anticipating and understanding change is becoming increasingly relevant and top companies are not just competing in the present, but also into the future. Purpose: To uncover and discuss how companies can enhance their strategies through procedures for anticipating and more appropriately preparing for change. This will consist of understanding how companies gain foresight and relevant types of information about potential future changes, how companies understand what these changes mean in terms of their context and their future, and, finally, how they respond once they have gained an understanding. Methodology: The research has a qualitative approach and is based four case studies. Both secondary and primary data were used. The primary data collection was conducted with through structured interviews. Conclusions: Managers need not resort to costly or time consuming tools for enhancing their foresight insight and their strategies. Instead, they should constantly be aware of inherent biases, use counterfactual thinking and challenge their own mental models as well as the resulting views and understandings. Without doubting the mental models first and foremost, companies can innovate only incrementally. Furthermore, managers need to understand the potential of open foresight and the power within the company’s networks. In this way, they can distance themselves from the trend-impact-reaction cycle. Finally, companies should adopt a more anticipatory approach, rather than one which sustains the industry on order to better shield their strategies from disruptive change.

In the recent decades there have been tremendous technological and innovative advances that have shaped the business. Technology Laws like Moore’s, Gates law, Gilder’s Law, Metcalfe’s Law and Less’s Law shows the rate at which technological development has taken place. This has impacted how society as a whole functions and thus had changed the whole business environment and the rate at which new trend and ideas are adopted. It has become important for organisations to develop dynamic capabilities to be able to adopt in these environments where they could easily become redundant in a very short time. The aim of this study was to assess the use of foresight as a managerial skill to manage business decisions in academic institutions. For this study the primary focus was on higher academic institutions in South Africa. These higher academic institutions have been operating in a business environment that is highly competitive considering they focus on delivering quality products and services to the communities they serve. These products and services have to be competitive with the rest of the international market and thus they have to ensure they deliver products and services that are relevant to the latest industry trends and technologies. Foresight as a skill is very useful in the early detection of new trends, technologies and assist in the improving the innovation of these organisations. Exploratory research found that within these organisations there is a strong representation of Flexist’s which are hesitant to adopt new technologies, where they would rather wait till it is tried and tested before adopting the technology. The results also depicted a relationship between the ways these organisations adopted technologies to that of the technology adoption life cycle model. The exact same way new technologies have to cross the chasm in the market was found within the organisations where there were some staff members being early adopter of new technology and the rest pragmatists. Finally a foresight skill measurement formula had been developed which can be adopted to various industries. It can indicate areas where the organisations need to improve and plot them on an exponential curve showing their rate of effectiveness. The curve also indicates how effective they are at the implementation of foresight. Recommendation for further research in this field can be aimed at getting a better understanding of the relationship between the biographical information such as qualifications, age and years of experience impact the ability of foresight as a skill. / MBA (Business Administration), North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2015

In the recent decades there have been tremendous technological and innovative advances that have shaped the business. Technology Laws like Moore’s, Gates law, Gilder’s Law, Metcalfe’s Law and Less’s Law shows the rate at which technological development has taken place. This has impacted how society as a whole functions and thus had changed the whole business environment and the rate at which new trend and ideas are adopted. It has become important for organisations to develop dynamic capabilities to be able to adopt in these environments where they could easily become redundant in a very short time. The aim of this study was to assess the use of foresight as a managerial skill to manage business decisions in academic institutions. For this study the primary focus was on higher academic institutions in South Africa. These higher academic institutions have been operating in a business environment that is highly competitive considering they focus on delivering quality products and services to the communities they serve. These products and services have to be competitive with the rest of the international market and thus they have to ensure they deliver products and services that are relevant to the latest industry trends and technologies. Foresight as a skill is very useful in the early detection of new trends, technologies and assist in the improving the innovation of these organisations. Exploratory research found that within these organisations there is a strong representation of Flexist’s which are hesitant to adopt new technologies, where they would rather wait till it is tried and tested before adopting the technology. The results also depicted a relationship between the ways these organisations adopted technologies to that of the technology adoption life cycle model. The exact same way new technologies have to cross the chasm in the market was found within the organisations where there were some staff members being early adopter of new technology and the rest pragmatists. Finally a foresight skill measurement formula had been developed which can be adopted to various industries. It can indicate areas where the organisations need to improve and plot them on an exponential curve showing their rate of effectiveness. The curve also indicates how effective they are at the implementation of foresight. Recommendation for further research in this field can be aimed at getting a better understanding of the relationship between the biographical information such as qualifications, age and years of experience impact the ability of foresight as a skill. / MBA (Business Administration), North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2015

21st Century Foresight offers a comprehensive study of ‘foresight’ as an instrument of policy. It covers the development of foresight methodology, the design of foresight activities and their evaluation. The thesis is based on eleven publications collectively making significant contributions to knowledge about global foresight practices and applications in different domains (i.e. research areas and socio-economic sectors). New conceptual frameworks developed include the Foresight Diamond, the SMART Futures Jigsaw and the Methods Combination Matrix (MCM), which can be used as tools for futures research, practical work in the design and management of forward-looking activities and knowledge transfer on foresight. The thesis shows both generalised and specific contributions to knowledge. The former is best demonstrated with the development of a “fully-fledged evaluation” framework with twenty criteria, the identification of critical factors influencing the selection of foresight methods (e.g. geo-R&D context) and the use of network analysis techniques in foresight. The latter is prominent throughout the thesis with examples including the results of particular evaluations and the profiles of foresight practices in Europe and Latin America. A prevailing theme is the use of mapping and benchmarking approaches to evaluate foresight practices and reveal a more detailed understanding of the impacts of foresight in science, technology and innovation systems. The theoretical contributions (e.g. using exploratory research and catastrophe theory) are complemented with a set of practical instruments providing methodological basis and guidelines for increasing the efficiency and outcome of foresight and horizon scanning activities. Overall, the thesis demonstrates original contributions to five distinct yet interconnected areas of knowledge: foresight methodology; foresight practices in Europe and the world; foresight in Latin America; foresight evaluation; and the evaluation of national technology foresight programmes. The various approaches used to frame the morphology of foresight – supported with evidence, comparisons and evaluations – are the main contributions to knowledge.

The aim of this dissertation was to develop a novel behavioural method to assess young children’s capacity for episodic foresight. Specifically, I developed a marble game paradigm to assess whether 3-, 4-, and 5-year-old children would save marbles for future enjoyment. Study 1 demonstrated that preschoolers will save more spontaneously when they can draw on a recent past experience compared to when the context is completely novel. Results from study 1 also suggest that preschoolers are sensitive to the relative value of future rewards. Study 2 revealed that providing children with a verbal prompt alerting them to their possible courses of action (i.e., saving or spending) facilitated saving, that 5-year-olds saved more than 3-year-olds, and that children’s performance on this behavioural (i.e., nonverbal) measure of saving was independent of their language proficiency. Children’s saving was not associated with other capacities hypothesized to relate to episodic foresight (theory of mind, inhibitory control, and working memory). Implications for children's saving, the development of episodic foresight, and future research are discussed.

Nesta pesquisa foi estudada a utilização do corporate foresight como forma de suporte ao processo de inovação empresarial. Assim, dentre os objetivos de pesquisa encontram-se: analisar quais são os principais métodos de prospecção utilizados pelas empresas; se existe um foco em alguma inovação específica, podendo ser essas: inovação de produto, processo, marketing, organizacional e/ou modelo de negócio; além de estudar a relação existente entre o corporate foresight e a inovação nas empresas. A metodologia de pesquisa é descritiva exploratória de caráter quantitativo, tendo como principal intuito, entender e descrever a relação entre as variáveis estudadas. Os dados foram coletados a partir de uma amostra não probabilística por tratar-se de uma amostragem selecionada intencionalmente de atuais executivos do mercado. Referente aos resultados ligados ao corporate foresight foi identificado que as empresas utilizam com maior frequência os métodos de Pesquisa de Mercado; seguido de Cenários; Previsões e Projeções de Executivos e Palestra com Especialistas. Quando se trata do horizonte de tempo, nota-se que dos quatro métodos mais utilizados, três visam a prospecção em curto prazo, trazendo assim, a visão de as empresas terem de antecipar-se ao futuro próximo devido ao crescimento tecnológico acelerado. Os resultados de inovação mostram que as empresas estão utilizando com maior frequência as inovações de produto, processo e o crescimento da utilização da inovação de modelo de negócios que demonstra a preocupação das empresas em não só inovar, mas sim em gerar valor para o seu consumidor final. Outro ponto é o modo que as empresas inovam, que, por meio dessa pesquisa, foi possível observar que existe uma tendência em utilizar a inovação aberta de forma individualizada e em conjunto com os modos centralizado e descentralizado. Por meio dos resultados ligados ao suporte que o corporate foresight fornece ao processo de inovação empresarial, foi possível observar que os executivos enxergam os métodos de prospecção como uma forma de suporte à inovação, e que esse suporte é utilizado com maior ênfase nas fases iniciais do processo, como a identificação de inovações estratégicas e em menos frequência na fase de construção de um cronograma factível quando a inovação já foi executada. Além disso, o nível de integração entre os métodos de prospecção e o processo de inovação mostra tendência de ser cada vez mais integrado, tornando essa relação mais madura e desenvolvida. Por fim, os executivos encontram-se, em sua maioria, satisfeitos com a utilização do corporate foresight como forma de apoio ao processo de inovação. / The use of corporate foresight as a way to support the business innovation process has been studied in this research. Therefore, among the research objectives are: to analyze which are the main foresighting methods used by the companies; if there is a focus on some specific innovation, such as: product, process, marketing, organizational innovation and/or business model; in addition to studying the relationship between corporate foresight and business innovation process. The research methodology is descriptive exploratory and quantitative, as main concern, to understand and to describe the relation between the variables studied. The data were collected from a non-probabilistic sample because it was an intentionally selected sample of current market executives. Regarding the results related to corporate foresight, it was identified that companies use Market Research methods more frequently; followed by Scenarios; Executive Predictions and Projections and Lectures with Specialists. When it comes to the time horizon, it can be seen that of the four most used methods, three are aimed at short-term prospecting, thus bringing the view that companies have to anticipate the near future due to accelerated technological growth. Innovation results show that companies are increasingly using product, process, and business innovations that demonstrate the concern of companies to not only innovate, but to aggregate value for their final customers. Another point is the way companies innovate, which, through this research, it was possible to observe that there is a tendency to use open innovation in an individualized way and together with centralized and decentralized modes. Through the results related to the support that corporate foresight provides to the process of business innovation, it was possible to observe that executives see prospection methods as a form of support for innovation, and that this support is used with greater emphasis in the initial phases of the process, such as the identification of strategic innovations and less frequently in the construction phase of a feasible schedule when the innovation has already been implemented. In addition, the level of integration between prospecting methods and the innovation process shows a tendency to be increasingly integrated, making this relationship more mature and developed. Finally, executives are mostly satisfied with the use of corporate foresight to support the innovation process.

A trajetória e desenvolvimento de Corporate Foresight, uma competência organizacional que permite estabelecer os alicerces para a construção de vantagem competitiva no contexto estratégico das organizações, têm revelado uma corrente de pesquisa independente no campo de estudos do futuro. A evolução do interesse sobre o tema, nos âmbitos acadêmico e gerencial, remete à necessidade de ampliar suas fronteiras interdisciplinares, permeando estudos concernentes aos elos que envolvem os construtos que delineiam todo o processo estratégico preditivo e decisório. Nesse sentido, esta tese tem por objetivo a proposição de um framework que realça a integração entre a competência Corporate Foresight e as demais etapas do processo estratégico que culmina com o estabelecimento de vantagens competitivas, proporcionando diálogo entre o conhecimento teórico e a observação empírica. Metodologicamente, foi realizada uma extensa revisão bibliográfica sobre os assuntos pertinentes ao tema objeto da tese, a qual serviu de base para a proposição do framework conceitual. Complementarmente, realizou-se uma pesquisa empírica, a qual recorreu a métodos mistos, envolvendo uma etapa qualitativa, com o emprego de entrevistas em profundidade face a face, e uma fase quantitativa. A primeira etapa serviu de subsídio necessário para o desenvolvimento da fase quantitativa, a qual visou a elucidar a relação e integração entre Corporate Foresight e as demais etapas do processo estratégico direcionado à elaboração de estratégias que permitam a consecução de vantagem competitiva e crescimento da organização. Conclui-se que a tese pode proporcionar um avanço no conhecimento sobre o tema, trazendo implicações acadêmicas e gerenciais, pois apresenta um framework aderente com poder explicativo de Corporate Foresight para a obtenção de Vantagem Competitiva Futura, condição necessária, mas não suficiente, pois também constata que apenas a implementação de ações necessárias identificadas durante o período de planejamento estratégico não é suficiente para explicar o estabelecimento de Vantagem competitiva. / The trajectory and development of Corporate Foresight, an organizational competence that allows laying the foundations for the construction of competitive advantage in the strategic context of organizations, has revealed a current of independent research in the field of future studies. The evolution of interest on the subject, in the academic and managerial spheres, refers to the need to extend its interdisciplinary boundaries, permeating studies concerning the links that surround the constructs that outline the entire strategic predictive and decision-making process. In this sense, this thesis aims at proposing a framework that highlights the integration between the Corporate Foresight competence and the other stages of the strategic process that culminates in the establishment of competitive advantages, providing a dialogue between theoretical knowledge and empirical observation. Methodologically, an extensive bibliographical review was carried out on the subjects pertinent to the subject matter of the thesis, which served as a basis for the proposal of the conceptual framework. Also, empirical research was carried out, using mixed methods, involving a qualitative step, using in-depth face-to-face interviews, and a quantitative phase. The first stage served as a necessary subsidy for the development of the quantitative phase, which aimed to elucidate the relationship and integration between Corporate Foresight and the other stages of the strategic process directed to the elaboration of strategies that allow the achievement of competitive advantage and growth of the organization. It is concluded that the thesis can provide an advance in the knowledge on the subject, bringing academic and managerial implications, because it presents an adherent framework with the explanatory power of Corporate Foresight to obtain Future Competitive Advantage, a necessary but not sufficient condition since it also notes that only the implementation of necessary actions identified during the strategic planning period is not enough to explain the establishment competitive advantage.

La culture informationnelle constitue une des compétences attribuées à l’employabilité des individus dans l’actuelle société de l’information, des connaissances et du savoir (SICS). En exigeant des compétences employables (CE), celle-ci prend à notre sens une nouvelle dimension (SICS&CE) faisant ainsi transiter le marché du travail du concept du « marché d’emploi » d’attributions fixes et de routines classiques à celui du « marché d’employabilité (MEMP) » sollicitant la flexibilité et les compétences adoptives et adaptatives aux changements socio-économiques. Désormais, la veille stratégique en général et précisément numérique, œuvre par son « Processus de production d’information et des connaissances » à développer la culture informationnelle de veille sur Internet (CIVI) pour améliorer les diverses compétences individuelles. Dans ce sens, cette thèse vient dans le cadre d’une analyse qualitative et une approche exploratoire interprétative, traiter la problématique du développement de la qualité des compétences définissant l’employabilité des apprenants, futurs diplômés universitaires. Elle cherche à savoir dans quelle mesure une veille pédagogique et stratégique universitaire peut améliorer la qualité de leurs compétences employables en culture CIVI, en adoptant dans son processus de production informationnelle, un marketing relationnel orienté-marché impliquant les apprenants universitaires en tant que « clients internes », aussi bien que les acteurs du marché d’employabilité en tant que « clients externes » ? En évoluant dans une perspective socio-constructiviste, des séries d’évaluations sur les compétences et les satisfactions des apprenants aussi bien que des modèles d’évaluation de leurs compétences en CIVI ont été élaborés dans le cadre d’une approche par compétence (APC) adoptant un marketing relationnel interne et externe. Cette approche se caractérise en premier lieu par une : « Orientation-Implication des Apprenants-Clients : OI-APCL » et en second lieu par une « Orientation-Implication du Marché d’employabilité : OI-MEMP », se basant sur un blog pédagogique en tant que Système informationnel et outil de veille Web.2.0, destiné à développer la compétence en culture informationnelle des apprenants. Ceci nous a conduit à constater dans le cadre de l’orientation vers une université d’employabilité, l’amélioration des taux des compétences par la baisse des groupes profanes en culture CIVI, passant de 88,74% à 41,94% et un taux de besoin de formation en culture CIVI passant de 89,50% à 46,50% conduisant à la satisfaction des apprenants et des acteurs d’employabilité impliqués dans notre travail et le recrutement de trois groupes des 20 binômes apprenants/diplômés concernés par notre travail, Ces résultats amènent à recommander l’adoption d’une « veille d’employabilité » pour le développement de la qualité des compétences individuelles dans une société SICS&CE sollicitant désormais en plus des connaissances et du savoir, l’actualisation par l’apprentissage à vie et la flexibilité d’adaptation aux changements et innovations, définissant ainsi l’employabilité des individus. / Information literacy is one of competences conferred to individual employability in information and knowledge society (IKS). By Requiring employable skills (EC), this society acquires a new dimension (SICS & CE) and passes labor market from classic concept of "job market" to "employability market (MEMP)" seeking flexibility and adaptive skills to changes. Foresight Scanning in general and specifically digital one, works by its "Information and Knowledge Production Process" to develop information literacy/Internet (CIVI) to improve various individual skills. In this sense, this thesis evolves in a qualitative and interpretative exploratory approach, to treat the issue of quality skills development, defining the employability of university students. It seeks to know how a universities’ foresight scanning will improve quality of their employable CIVI culture skill, by adopting in its informational production process, a market-oriented relational marketing involving university students as "internal customers ", as well as employability market actors as" external customers " ?Evolving in a socio-constructivist perspective, series of evaluations on skills and satisfactions of learners as well as their skills CIVI assessment models were developed as part of a competency based approach (SBA) adopting a relational internal and external marketing. This approach is characterized firstly by an "Orientation-Involvement of Learners-Clients: OI-APCL" and secondly by an "Orientation-Involvement of employability market: OI-MEMP," based on an educational blog as informational Web.2.0 System and monitoring tool designed to develop competency in information literacy learners. This led us to conclude in the orientation forward an employability university, skills levels improvement by declining secular groups CIVI culture, from 88.74% to 41.94% and a need for training CIVI rate of Culture from 89.50% to 46.50% resulting to learner employability and the recruitment of three groups of the 20 pairs graduate students involved in our work, This recommends adoption of an " Foresight Scanning employability" for quality development skills in SICS&CE society seeking now more than information and knowledge, but also flexibility skills to adapt changes and innovations defining really individual employability.