Os países, para continuarem competitivos, procuram aprimoramento contínuo da capacidade em Ciência, Tecnologia & Inovação (CT&I) num contexto de globalização mundial. Para isso, necessitam definir prioridades e formular políticas de CT&I. Uma das ações que podem contribuir para a melhoria da competitividade é a elaboração do Foresight Tecnológico, utilizado tanto para prever as conseqüências do uso dessas tecnologias para o meio ambiente e a sociedade, quanto para desenvolver formas de prevenir o seu impacto, visando conservar o meio ambiente e proporcionar melhorias sociais. Trata-se de uma pesquisa exploratória realizada por meio do estudo de caso, de levantamentos bibliográficos, obtenção de dados documentais e entrevistas com pessoas que participaram da elaboração de estudo foresight. Discorre sobre a teoria de foresight, o processo de elaboração do estudo, certas técnicas e métodos utilizados em alguns países em que foi realizado. Além disso, verifica o estágio em que o Brasil se encontra na elaboração de estudo foresight e, em profundidade, o estudo de caso Programa Brasileiro de Prospectiva Tecnológica Industrial, que foi coordenado pela Secretaria de Tecnologia Industrial (STI) em conjunto com a Secretaria de Desenvolvimento da Produção (SDP), do Ministério de Desenvolvimento, Indústria e Comércio Exterior (MDIC). Esta pesquisa pretende entender como procedimentos adotados no processo de elaboração do estudo foresight condicionam sua efetividade como instrumento de formulação de políticas públicas para CT&I no contexto de desenvolvimento sustentável, a fim de contribuir para o avanço do conhecimento da administração nessa área. A pesquisa sugere um esquema para o processo de elaboração do estudo foresight, para que esta envolva os stakeholders e os comprometa com a implementação dos resultados, a fim de apoiar a formulação de políticas públicas. / In the globalize world, all countries that want to be competitive have to invest on Science, Technology and Innovation (ST&I) defining priorities and formulating ST&I policies. In this context, the development of technologic foresight is a way to improve this competitive. Technology Foresight is a practice used to foresee the outcomes of these technologies to environment and society, to prevent the negative impacts and to improve the quality of life in general. This research is an exploratory research based on case study, bibliography surveys and interviews with people who have already participated in foresight studies process development. The content is about the foresight theory, the studies elaboration process, certain techniques and methods used in some countries. Besides, it also analyzes the Brazil situation on foresight studies development and it brings a deeper research into the case study of the Brazilian Program of Industrial Technology Prospective, which was coordinated by Industrial Technology Secretary in set with Production Development Secretary of the Ministry of Development, Industry and Foreign Commerce. This research aims to understand how the procedures used into the development process of foresight are determinant to its effectiveness as instrument to formulate S,T&I public policy in sustainable development, in order to contribute to the knowledge advance in management into this area. It also proposes a framework for the foresight study process development in which involves stakeholders and make them committed with the results of the study, in order to formulate ST&I public policies.

Studies show that the average lifespan of large companies is decreasing and that companies of today face a higher degree of market-saturation caused by globalization. In order for companies to stay alive, they need to scan for trends outside their business scope, which can be done by adopting corporate foresight. This thesis investigates the uniqueness of corporate foresight in large Swedish companies when compared to a European sample. The focus lies on measuring differences with regards to need, capabilities and maturity of corporate foresight. This thesis establishes that there is an ever-growing interest in studying corporate foresight from a Swedish perspective due to the high rate of innovation in the country. Based on a theoretical framework, a method is established for measuring the three main dimensions of need, capabilities and maturity. The data for the Swedish companies is empirical data from 11 Swedish companies gathered using a survey provided by the collaborator Rohrbeck Heger GmbH. The Swedish data is then compared to a European sample by using an existing database. Through the use of a quantitative method with two statistical tests, one non-parametric test (Mann-Whitney U-test) and one parametric test (Welch’s t-test), several interesting differences were found. For need, it was found that Swedish firms act in a less dynamic environment than its European counterparts, but that Swedish firms’ environment is more complex. For capabilities, Swedish firms have stronger internal capabilities with regards to culture, method sophistication and information usage. Finally, for maturity, Swedish firms have stronger perceiving abilities but weaker prospecting abilities than European firms. In summary, it is not possible to say that the overall need or maturity with regards to corporate foresight is greater or more advanced for Swedish firms. However, a conclusion is that Swedish firms have stronger capabilities for corporate foresight than its European counterparts. / Studier visar att genomsnittslivstiden för stora bolag minskar, samt att dagens företag möter en högre grad av marknadsmättnad orsakad av globalisering. För att företag ska överleva behöver de skanna efter trender utanför deras nuvarande verksamhet, vilket kan göras genom att arbeta med affärsförutseende. I detta examensarbete undersöks unika egenskaper gällande affärsförutseende i stora svenska bolag jämfört med stora europeiska bolag. Fokus ligger i att mäta skillnaderna i behov, färdigheter samt mognadsgrad av affärsförutseende. Detta examensarbete konstaterar genom flertalet källor att intresset och behovet av att utforska affärsförutseende för svenska bolag finns, eftersom Sverige är ett av världens mest innovativa länder. Från litteraturstudien etableras en metod för att mäta nivåer på de tre dimensionerna behov, färdigheter samt mognadsgrad. Empirisk data har samlats in på 11 stora svenska bolag genom en enkätbaserad intervju, där tillgång har erhållits till en granskad enkät genom samarbetspartnern Rohrbeck Heger GmbH, samt tillgång till deras databas med europeiska bolag. Den svenska datan jämförs därefter mot ett europeiskt dataset, där en kvantitativ metod används för att jämföra dessa grupper; ett icke-parametriskt test (Mann-Whitney U-test) samt ett parametriskt test (Welch’s t-test). Genom dessa tester erhålls flera intressanta skillnader mellan svenska och europeiska bolag. Gällande behov, visade resultatet att svenska bolag har ett lägre dynamiskt affärsklimat, men där affärsklimatet är mer komplext. Gällande färdigheter skiljer sig svenska bolag på de interna färdigheterna kultur, metodraffinering samt informationsanvändning. Slutligen, gällande mognadsgrad för affärsförutseende, är svenska bolag starkare på att uppfatta trender men svagare på att analysera trender. Sammanfattningsvis är det inte möjligt att dra någon slutsats överlag huruvida behov och mognadsgrad gällande affärsförutseende är mer avancerat bland svenska bolag. Däremot kan slutsatsen dras att svenska bolag har starkare färdigheter för affärsförutseende än dess europeiska motsvarigheter.

This essay advances a libertarian theory of moral rights, which responds effectively to some serious objections that have been raised against libertarianism. I show how libertarianism can explain children’s rights to certain physical integrity and aid. I defend strong moral rights of human, pre-natal organisms, infants and children against all agents to certain non-interference with their physical integrity. I also argue that parents’ moral obligation to aid their offspring follows from a moral principle that prohibits agents to actively harm rights-bearers. Since this is the core principle of all versions of libertarianism, we gain simplicity and coherence. In chapter two, I explain my theory’s similarities and differences to a libertarian theory of moral rights advanced by Robert Nozick in his 1974 book Anarchy, State, and Utopia. I explain the structure and coherence of negative moral rights as advanced by Nozick. Then, I discuss what these negative rights are rights to, and the criteria for being a rights-bearer. In chapter three, I formulate a clear distinction between active and passive behaviour, and discuss the moral importance of foreseeing consequences of one’s active interventions. In chapter four, I claim that some pre-natal human organisms, human infants, and children, are rights-bearers. I formulate a morally relevant characterization of potentiality, and argue that possession of such potentiality is sufficient to have negative rights against all agents. In chapter five, I discuss whether potential moral subjects, in addition, have positive moral rights against all agents to means sufficient to develop into actual moral subjects. I argue that this suggestion brings some difficulties when applied to rights-conflicts. In chapter six, I argue that potential moral subjects’ rights to means necessary to develop into actual moral subjects can be defended in terms of merely negative rights. By adopting the view advanced in this chapter, we get a simple, coherent theory. It avoids the difficulties in the view advanced in chapter five, while keeping its intuitively plausible features. In chapter seven, I discuss whether the entitlement theory is contradictory and morally repugnant. I argue that my version of the entitlement theory is not.

In many corporations, sustainability has become an important activity to focuson, with the aim of preparing corporations for the future. Foresight, a newerfield, is increasingly becoming an important activity of corporations, with thepurpose of surviving long-term. These motives make companies’ involvement with corporate sustainability and with corporate foresight fundamental. However, because foresight is a recent field, it implies processes that are less mastered by professionals than sustainability. Since the motives of corporate sustainability and corporate foresight are similar, the purpose of this thesis is therefore to understand if corporate sustainability can contribute to corporate foresight implementation. Specifically, the purpose of this thesis is to identify which corporate sustainability (CS) activities can be integrated to which corporate foresight (CF) activities, to facilitate and foster foresight. Consequently, the contributions of the research consist in extending the knowledge about sustainability as a foresight activity and in proposing suggestions to incorporate sustainability to foresight activities. This study reviews several CS frameworks and several CF frameworks, provides a deeper understanding of the underlying processes needed for the implementation of CS and CF, and identifies the similarities. The study specifically builds on the Maturity Model of Corporate Foresight from the book Corporate Foresight – Towards a Maturity Model for the Future Orientation of a Firm from Rohrbeck (2010). Based on the theoretical findings, qualitative interviews of sustainability professionals are carried out. Those interviews are meant to test the theoretical findings. The research provides knowledge on the management of corporate foresightby providing insights on foresight practices that benefit from incorporating sustainability practices. The conclusion of the paper consists in a model thatpresents explicit ways in which corporate sustainability contributes tocorporate foresight. In fact, it is shown that corporate sustainability fosters strong internal and external networks and creates a corporate culture favourable to change. Internal and external networks facilitate cross-functional collaboration and communication; and employees favourable to change are more open to new ideas; both being key for foresight implementation. Thus, Corporate Sustainability supports Corporate Foresight because it sets up a favourable corporate culture, and because it paves the way for appropriate work processes (internal and external collaboration for instance).

Since various public and private actors at the international, supranational, national and subnational levels started to adopt long-term targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, low-carbon scenario analyses have flourished. Literature reveals an increasing number of analyses envisioning and exploring alternative images of low-carbon futures, as well as their adjacent transition pathways. Scenario approaches or “foresight” is intended to help policy-makers to navigate the maelstrom of confusion and conflicts associated with highly complex societal challenges such as climate change – i.e. the “super-wicked” problems. Typical scenario exercises aim at coping with uncertainty and conflicting values, and hence are often claimed as a suitable approach for knowing and governing super-wicked problems. When reviewing the scenario literature published over the recent years, we observe significant methodological developments, in particular at the level of the calculus or data-sets. These contributions have generated an increasing technical sophistication of scenario building methods, and contrast with the relative absence of social sciences research on scenarios. Scenario analyses have received little academic attention from social sciences, whether they are political science, sociology, philosophy of science or science and technology studies. By providing a SHS-analysis of low-carbon scenarios, the present thesis contributes to bridge this research gap. Scenarios are here understood as “boundary objects” linking different social worlds: science and policy, but also natural and social sciences. This thesis aspires to create an enhanced understanding on how scenario analyses perform such “boundary work”. More specifically, the following analysis of low-carbon scenarios is based on a twofold perspective focusing, on the one hand, on the interactions between low-carbon scenarios and governance (i.e. link between science and policy), and, on the other hand, on the making of knowledge about governance in low-carbon scenarios (i.e. link between natural and social sciences). In other words, it explores “scenarios in governance” and “governance in scenarios”. The thesis project includes three research axes, each based on its particular empirics. A first study explores the interactions between low-carbon scenarios and governance on the basis of a multiple case study analysing the role of four energy foresight studies in policy-making. The other two studies focus on the making of knowledge about governance in low-carbon scenarios. One of them provides an assessment of the knowledge needed to steer the low-carbon transition. The other one aims at contributing to the debate on the relations between quantitative modelling and social sciences by exposing a critical review of socio-technical energy transition models. The objective of the present thesis thus consists in providing an empirical contribution to social sciences research on low-carbon scenarios. / Doctorat en Sciences / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

In this thesis, the technologies that appeared to be strategic according to the Vision 2023 Technology Foresight Project were examined in terms of how they might form up technology clusters. This thesis aims to identify technology clusters in terms of common knowledge base and to use these clusters in future scenarios as a foresight tool. In this study, Vision 2023 Delphi survey respondents&rsquo / intersecting expertise levels in different fields were accepted as indicators of common knowledge base in these fields and technology clusters were formed up in this direction. In order to attain technology clusters, the appropriateness of hierarchical and nonhierarchical clustering methods and projection techniques were examined. Taking the clusters into consideration, Ward&rsquo / s method revealed the healthiest results for our data set. Investigation of scenario building which had not been used in Turkey as a an effective foresight tool, forms the second step of this study. Scenario method was examined from a historical perspective and different approaches were investigated. Finally, using the technology clusters that were gained through Ward clustering, a scenario building study by scenario matrix was conducted as an example.

This thesis analyses the National Innovation System of Turkey. In order to achieve this purpose, on the one hand, &lsquo / catching-up&rsquo / , &lsquo / forging ahead&rsquo / , and &lsquo / falling behind&rsquo / processes of the countries and their relationships with economic growth, long wave theories, and valid techno-economic paradigm have been studied / while on the other hand, the historical evolution of the science, technology, and innovation systems, are investigated together with foresight studies, which are considered as their guide. In conclusion, with appropriate policies and implementations, it is asserted that Turkey could achieve &lsquo / quantum jump&rsquo / by acquiring a number of innovation opportunities, and thus, she could increase her national productivity and subsequently, her competitive power on the international arena.

abstract: The uncertainty of change inherent in issues such as climate change and regional growth has created a significant challenge for public decision makers trying to decide what adaptation actions are needed to respond to these possible changes. This challenge threatens the resiliency and thus the long term sustainability of our social-ecological systems. Using an empirical embedded case study approach to explore the application of advanced scenario analysis methods to regional growth visioning projects in two regions, this dissertation provides empirical evidence that for issues with high uncertainty, advanced scenario planning (ASP) methods are effective tools for helping decision makers to anticipate and prepare to adapt to change. / Dissertation/Thesis / Ph.D. Environmental Design and Planning 2011

Orientadores: Maria Beatriz Machado Bonacelli, Ana Lucia Delgado Assad / Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Geociencias / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-05T13:24:24Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Valle_MarceloGoncalvesdo_D.pdf: 914637 bytes, checksum: 65d97fcaa56b3c25a9b638cd7961ec8d (MD5) Previous issue date: 2005 / Resumo: Esta tese tem por objetivo o estudo do sistema nacional de inovação em biotecnologia (SNIB) no Brasil, identificando gargalos, entraves e desafios, culminando na sugestão de ações e políticas para seu adensamento e consolidação. Para a consecução deste objetivo, incorporaram-se ferramentas de prospecção tecnológica e cenários, os quais constituem um aparato pervasivo para o diagnóstico situacional, monitoramento e tomada de decisão, reduzindo conflitos quanto a percepções relativas ao futuro e aprimorando a qualidade de ações e decisões estratégicas, contribuindo na formulação das referidas prescrições. Para fins didáticos, o trabalho foi dividido em quatro capítulos. O primeiro analisa a abordagem metodológica de sistemas de inovação, bem como a evolução histórica do sistema nacional de C&T e a formação do sistema de inovação brasileiro. Adicionalmente, apontam-se os principais gargalos e entraves à sua evolução. O segundo capítulo focaliza a dinâmica da biotecnologia e transformações decorrentes da aplicação de técnicas de engenharia genética, biologia molecular e celular, suscitando a necessidade de conformação de novos marcos regulatórios e institucionais, trazendo consigo o recrudescimento de debates no âmbito da regulação da biossegurança e direitos de propriedade intelectual. O terceiro capítulo analisa determinados padrões de organização da biotecnologia em países e regiões como Estados Unidos, Japão e União Européia, seguindo-se a análise da evolução e conjuntura do SNIB no Brasil. Finalmente, no quarto capítulo, utiliza-se a técnica de cenários prospectivos, a partir dos quais são propostos quatro possíveis desdobramentos para o desenvolvimento da biotecnologia e deste sistema no país. Dentre as principais conclusões do trabalho, aponta-se a necessidade de aprimoramento, em âmbito nacional, das condições gerais de seu ambiente institucional, contemplando o marco regulatório em biossegurança, acesso a recursos genéticos e sistema de propriedade intelectual; perenização, continuidade e políticas públicas mais seletivas, que contribuam para maior vinculação dos atores nele circunscritos; instituição de mecanismos que contribuam para o incremento do investimento público e privado; melhoria e desconcentração de condições de infra-estrutura e formação de recursos humanos e, por fim, criação de condições mais favoráveis para o empreendedorismo privado, mediante a instituição de linhas de financiamento privilegiadas, dinamização de mercados de capitais, seed money e instrumentos de intermediação financeira, além de ações que facilitem a contratação de profissionais especializados e a melhoria da gestão da propriedade intelectual / Abstract: The objective of this thesis is to study the national innovation system of Biotechnology in Brazil (SNIB). The analysis first identify bottlenecks, obstacles and challenges, and then suggest policies and actions to be taken, by using tools like technological foresight and scenarios, whose choice is due to the fact they constitute a more pervasive apparatus for diagnostic, monitoring and decision-making processes, besides helping both to reduce conflicts regarding relative perceptions of the future, and to ameliorate the quality of actions and strategic decisions. In the first chapter, one analyses the methodological approach to innovation systems as well as the evolution of the national S&T system through time, and the establishment of the Brazilian innovation system, pointing out some of the main difficulties/bottlenecks and obstacles to its evolution. The second chapter focus on the dynamics of Biotechnology together with the changes caused by the application of techniques of Genetic Engineering, Cellular and Molecular Biology. These changes imply the necessity to conform new regulatory and institutional marks, a process that brings intense debate about Biosafety regulation and Intellectual Property Rights. The third chapter considers some patterns of organization concerning Biotechnology in countries like USA, Japan and within European Union, in order to analyse both the evolution of the SNIB and the present state of the art / Doutorado / Doutor em Política Científica e Tecnológica

In the UK many industries are suffering as a result of business being lost to competition abroad. Raising the technical content of a company’s product or service may enable them to increase its competitiveness and hence retain or even increase business. A Trade Association exists to represent the interests of its members. One way that this can be realized is by provision of technical information to its members to support raising the technical content of their members’ products or services. The provision of technical information entails sourcing information, collecting it and then disseminating it in an appropriate format. Ways of undertaking this are identified. The factors that are likely to influence the provision of technical information are determined. This is so that a Trade Association can build upon its strengths, diminish weaknesses, exploit opportunities and avoid threats. A strategy for provision of engineering technical information to trade association members was given. Four mechanisms were implemented on a test-bed Trade Association; utilising information technology communication capabilities, newsletters, collaborations and conferences. Feedback and parameters were used to assess the strategy chosen for implementation on the test-bed. Taking this into consideration a revised strategy was established that can be adapted and applied by Trade Associations who wish to provide such a service in the future.