In many important economic situations, decision makers influence each other. The subject of game theory offers a mathematical framework to describe such strategic interaction. This dissertation focuses largely on helping to answering the question,"What will someone do in a particular strategic situation?" In order to do this, it is useful to interweave theory with experimentation. After all, observation of what people really do is a necessity when attempting to create models of what people really do. At the same time, theory can help significantly when formulating interesting hypotheses to test. The chapters in my dissertation illustrate this interweaving of theory and experiments.

The purpose of this research was, in order to forestall future failures of foresight, to provoke those responsible for risk governance into new ways of thinking through a greater exposure to and understanding of the body of existing academic knowledge. The research, which focused on the scholarship of application, synthesised the existing knowledge into a ―coherent whole‖ in order to assess its practical utility and to examine what is to be learnt about existing knowledge by trying to use it in practice. The findings are in two parts. The first focuses on how one ―thinks about thinking‖ about an issue. Early work identified three issues that were seen as being central to the understanding of risk governance. The first is the concept of risk itself, the second is to question whether there is a single paradigm used and the third is what is meant by the term ―risk indicator‖. A ―coherent whole‖, structured around seven-dimensions, was created from the range of definitions used within existing literature. No single paradigm was found to be used when discussing risk issues. Three paradigms were identified and labelled ―Line‖, ―Circle‖ and ―Dot‖. It was concluded that Risk Indicators were used to performance manage risk mitigation barriers rather than as a mechanism by which organisations may identify emerging risks. The second focus was the synthesis of academic work relevant to risk governance. It produced a list of statements which encapsulated the concerns of previous writers on this subject. The research then operationalised the issues as questions, which were seen to have practical utility. The elements of the ―coherent whole‖ suggest a way to provide access into the original research. The research suggests that it is unlikely that practitioners would wish to access the original research in its academic format. Further work therefore needs to be done to present the original work in a format that is more digestible to the practitioner community if it is to be used effectively. The results of this research are considered to be preliminary. No claim is being made that these questions are definitive. The research is however addressing an area which is of concern to those in practice and has not been previously examined.

Mental time travel (MTT) refers to an individual’s ability to mentally travel through subjective time, autonoetically re-experiencing past events under the form of autobiographical memories (past MTT), and pre-experiencing events as future autobiographical representations (future MTT). MTT can occur voluntarily, whereby a past/future autobiographical event is subjectively experienced as an intended occurrence, or involuntarily, wherein such an event is subjectively experienced as an unintended outcome of which the individual is aware. Studies investigating MTT’s characteristics in dysphoria and depression show that dysphoric and depressed individuals produce more overgeneral and negative MTT events when compared to control groups. However, existing research has been limited to past and voluntary MTT events, with few studies investigating involuntary MTT and future MTT in dysphoria and depression. The overarching aim of the present research was to compare the phenomenological characteristics of MTT in dysphoric individuals vs. normal mood individuals (Study 1), and in clinically depressed individuals vs. never-depressed individuals (Study 2), with the purpose of furthering existing knowledge on MTT and its relation with dysphoria and Major Depressive Disorder. This aim was addressed by conducting two studies, using a 2 x (2 x 2) mixed-factorial design, with temporality (past vs. future events) and type of retrieval (voluntary vs. involuntary events) as within-subjects independent variables, and participant group as a between-subjects variable. In Study 1, Portuguese university students were categorised into a dysphoric (n=17) or a normal mood group (n=39) depending on their score on the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI-IA) – cutoff point (≥ 10). In Study 2, clinically diagnosed depressed patients (n=32) were recruited from a Portuguese hospital and matched for age and gender with never-depressed control participants (n=32) recruited from the community. The dependent variables tested were: level of spatiotemporal specificity, self-relevance, mood and physical impact, valence, and visual perspective of the MTT events produced. A diary methodology was used in both studies, with an open-ended time period that lasted for a minimum of two weeks, for participants to record their MTT events and grade them on the above mentioned variables using Likert-type ratings. Between seven and fourteen MTT events were produced for each of the four MTT conditions (past voluntary, past involuntary, future voluntary, future involuntary). Results showed that when compared to their respective control groups, depressed, but not dysphoric participants, exhibited a clear influence of mood on several of the phenomenological characteristics of MTT. In Study 1 there were no statistically significant differences in the specificity, negative valence, and mood/physical impact of the MTT events produced by dysphoric and normal mood participants. On the contrary, in Study 2, results partially supported a lower specificity and fully supported a greater negativity and mood/physical impact of MTT events in depressed individuals compared with never-depressed participants. Both studies supported the greater self-relevance of voluntary MTT events and partially supported the hypothesised effect of type of retrieval in specificity. These were the first studies to directly compare past and future, voluntary and involuntary MTT events in dysphoric and depressed individuals, addressing existing gaps in the literature. The key limitation is the relatively small sample size of both studies, however each participant was comprehensively assessed for at least two weeks, providing a rich set of reliable data. Despite limitations, this thesis provides novel pilot findings that help understand the similarities and differences between involuntary and voluntary, past and future MTT, as well as providing new information regarding the possible role of MTT in dysphoria and depression.

O presente trabalho tem por objetivo contribuir com a atividade de extração de rochas ornamentais, por meio de propostas com recomendações que possam indicar passos a serem seguidos (guidelines) para a sustentabilidade desse setor, utilizando como estudo de caso a região noroeste do Estado do Espírito Santo. Para isso são feitas propostas de planejamento em longo prazo por meio do Processo Prospectivo e, em mais curto prazo, por um esquema de certificação sustentável para a atividade, com vistas à sustentabilidade desse polo produtor, considerando sua importância e os problemas existentes. O Processo Prospectivo, feito mediante a utilização da abordagem inicial do Processo Prospectivo, com a varredura (scanning) do ambiente, e aplicado para a região noroeste do estado do Espírito Santo, apresentou-se como uma ferramenta adequada para atingir os objetivos do presente estudo, principalmente por apontar, a partir dos resultados, além da sua continuidade, também a viabilidade de implementar uma certificação de sustentabilidade para o setor de rochas ornamentais, pela concordância observada nos resultados obtidos, na visão dos stakeholders. Para a proposta de certificação sustentável foi feita uma pesquisa por meio de questionário com stakeholders chave da indústria de rochas ornamentais para identificar a percepção desses com relação à iniciativa, que incluiu tópicos gerais e específicos divididos em três temas principais: sustentabilidade da indústria de rochas ornamentais no Brasil; desafios para a sustentabilidade dessa indústria e deficiências e omissões da regulamentação vigente, relativa a esses desafios; e a viabilidade de um processo de certificação sustentável para a indústria de rochas ornamentais no Espírito Santo e a participação dos stakeholders e de seus órgãos nesse processo. Os resultados obtidos com o desenvolvimento do presente estudo permitem concluir que, na visão dos stakeholders da indústria de rochas ornamentais do Brasil, em especial na visão daqueles do estado de Espírito Santo, a formalização das empresas do setor, aliada a um processo de certificação, tem potencial para gerar benefícios significativos para o desenvolvimento local e/ou regional sustentável, o que coincide com outras experiências apresentadas na literatura vigente. Os resultados também mostraram que ainda há muito a ser estudado antes que uma certificação sustentável seja implementada, mas que há sinais encorajadores para a continuidade do trabalho, pois parte significativa dos stakeholders (sociedade, governo e empresários do setor) respondeu favoravelmente a essa iniciativa para o setor, até mesmo em âmbito nacional. Nesse sentido, é reforçada a importância da cooperação entre o setor, a sociedade e governo federal, estadual e municipal em todo o processo, de modo a se criar uma cultura que possibilite a sustentabilidade efetiva desse setor. Finalmente, o trabalho mostra que, apesar dos desafios existentes, as propostas de continuidade do Processo Prospectivo e de viabilização de um processo de certificação sustentável têm potencial para aprimorar a indústria de rochas ornamentais pela adoção de critérios, que visem não somente as questões de caráter econômico, como aquelas que melhorem a performance social e ambiental para a efetiva sustentabilidade dessa indústria. / This work aims to contribute with dimension stones industry by doing proposals and recommendations of guidelines to the sustainability of this industry, based on northwest region of Espirito Santo State as case study. Long term planning by applying the Foresight and of short term a Sustainability Certification Scheme are proposed in order to achieve the sustainability of the producer pole by considering its relevance and the existents problems. Foresight was applied for the northwest region using an initial approach of Foresight with the scanning of the environment, and it is presented as an appropriate tool to achieve the objectives of this study, mainly to point out from the results not only its continuity, but also the feasibility of implementing a sustainability certification scheme for the dimension stones industry, by the agreement observed in the results, in the view of stakeholders. For the sustainability certification scheme a survey was conducted with key stakeholders of the dimension stones industry to identify their perceptions regarding to the initiative, which included general and specific topics in three themes: sustainability of the dimension stones industry in Brazil; challenges to the sustainability of the dimension stones industry, and deficiencies and omissions of current regulatory processes regarding these challenges; and the feasibility of a sustainability certification scheme for the dimension stones industry in Espírito Santo State and the participation of entities/bodies/agencies in this process. The results obtained with the development of this study allow us to conclude that, in the view of stakeholders of the dimension stone industry in Brazil, especially the Espírito Santo State, the formalization of companies in the industry, combined with a certification process has the potential to generate significant benefits for local and/or regional sustainable development, which coincides with other experiences presented in current literature. The results also showed that there is still too much to be studied before a sustainability certification scheme is implemented, but there are encouraging signs for the continuity of the work, as a significant part of stakeholders (society, government and industry entrepreneurs) responded favorably to this initiative the industry, even at the national level. In this sense, it is reinforced the importance of cooperation between industry, society and federal, state and local government throughout the process, in order to create a culture that enables the sustainability of this sector. Finally, the study shows that despite the existing challenges, proposals for continuity of the Foresight and achieving a sustainability certification scheme have the potential to improve the dimension stones industry by adopting criteria that not only consider the economic issues of the industry, but also to improve its social and environmental performance for effective sustainability of this industry.

The purpose of this research was, in order to forestall future failures of foresight, to provoke those responsible for risk governance into new ways of thinking through a greater exposure to and understanding of the body of existing academic knowledge. The research, which focused on the scholarship of application, synthesised the existing knowledge into a ―coherent whole‖ in order to assess its practical utility and to examine what is to be learnt about existing knowledge by trying to use it in practice. The findings are in two parts. The first focuses on how one ―thinks about thinking‖ about an issue. Early work identified three issues that were seen as being central to the understanding of risk governance. The first is the concept of risk itself, the second is to question whether there is a single paradigm used and the third is what is meant by the term ―risk indicator‖. A ―coherent whole‖, structured around seven-dimensions, was created from the range of definitions used within existing literature. No single paradigm was found to be used when discussing risk issues. Three paradigms were identified and labelled ―Line‖, ―Circle‖ and ―Dot‖. It was concluded that Risk Indicators were used to performance manage risk mitigation barriers rather than as a mechanism by which organisations may identify emerging risks. The second focus was the synthesis of academic work relevant to risk governance. It produced a list of statements which encapsulated the concerns of previous writers on this subject. The research then operationalised the issues as questions, which were seen to have practical utility. The elements of the ―coherent whole‖ suggest a way to provide access into the original research. The research suggests that it is unlikely that practitioners would wish to access the original research in its academic format. Further work therefore needs to be done to present the original work in a format that is more digestible to the practitioner community if it is to be used effectively. The results of this research are considered to be preliminary. No claim is being made that these questions are definitive. The research is however addressing an area which is of concern to those in practice and has not been previously examined.

Firms in highly dynamic environments focusing on innovation in their products and services, often encounter elevated amounts of uncertainty regarding the future direction of technological change. Finding reliable and imbedded information enhances a firm’s ability to tackle new markets and take advantage of possible hidden opportunities. To reduce uncertainty, obtain hidden knowledge, and gain competitive advantage, environmental scanning, which is one of the main components of foresight, is recommended by scholars of strategic management. The process of detecting weak signals for shedding light what one authority calls “blurry future zones” (Day & Schoemaker, 2005, p.1) has currently been receiving attention in environmental scanning studies. Some studies emphasize the importance of the subject; yet they offer few practical methodologies for actual cases. To help address this gap, this research introduces a new approach for detecting weak signals during Internet-based environmental scanning by applying the Cluto toolkit (see Section 4.7) plus using human judgment. This novel methodology is applied to the application of Micro Tiles, a recent innovative product of a digital display company located in Ontario, Canada, Christie Digital Company. In the conduct of this exploratory research, about 40,000 HTML pages were retrieved from the Internet in a search during 2009. To extract weak signals information from the retrieved unstructured texts, documents were grouped into a number of clusters by the CLUTO software. Two subject matter experts compared and evaluated the cluster results for the purpose of finding potentially relevant information in regard to the company’s strategic intent. Analyzing the clusters, the experts reduced the number of clustered documents from the original corpus into smaller sets with the goal of finding more relevant and unexpected documents (weak signals). The relevancy and expectedness of information in documents were two measurements as related to weak signals. The trends of the study indicate that as anticipated both experts found more unexpected documents in the smaller sets rather than the larger ones. Moreover, regarding one expert’s analysis, the smaller sets contain documents that are more relevant to the domain of interest. Overall, according to one expert, documents existing in the smaller sets display more weak signals. This emerging methodology offers a practical procedure to apply web-based information in the development of a company’s environmental scanning procedures. Using this methodology, managers can employ both computer tools and human sense-making methods to detect potential weak signals and reduce certain biases in the detection process.

This dissertation explores the effect of tax news on national and state-level economic activity. In the first chapter, I explore the effect of tax news on state economic activity. I estimate a factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) model, which allows us to consider the possibility that unobserved regional factors --such as credit and fiscal conditions-- might be relevant for modelling the dynamic response of aggregate and state-level economic activity. Tax news is identified as a shock to the implicit tax rate, measured by the yield spread between the one year tax-exempt municipal bond and the one-year taxable Treasury bond. My results suggest that an increase in the implicit tax rate raises national output over much of the anticipation period. In addition, anticipated tax increases give rise to expansions in state personal income and employment. I find that the variation in the responsiveness of economic activity across states is mostly explained by differences in industrial composition as well as by some demographic characteristics such as education attainment and median age. In the second chapter, I examine the impact and transmission of the effect of tax news on U.S. economic activity. I find that news related to higher federal income taxes raise the real GDP over the anticipation period. In addition, aggregate and disaggregate industrial production, employment per worker, hours worked per worker and capacity utilization rate respond positively to tax news in the short run. An historical decomposition shows that tax news and federal funds rate shocks have been the main source of fluctuations in real GDP. In particular, tax news associated with legislation in 1986, 1993, and 2001 contributed to the movements in the real GDP. In the third chapter, I investigate whether the effect of tax news shocks differs across periods of recession and expansion. I follow Jorda’s (2005) local projection method to estimate tax news effects on the economy. I find that news about future tax cuts reduces economic activity for about four quarters and has a significant effect on the U.S. economy in the short run. The behavior of output following tax news shocks is similar in both recession and expansion phases of the business cycle and indicates that news about future tax cuts are contractionary. However, the rebound in economic activity four quarters after the news shock is higher in the recessionary phase than in the expansionary phase. Finally, the state dependent model shows that news shocks have a stronger positive impact on consumption expenditures and residential investment in the recession phase than in the expansion phase.

The capacity to mentally project the self into the future or, what has recently been termed “episodic foresight” is an emerging topic of study in developmental psychology. The aim of this dissertation was to review available research on this topic and explore its development in two groups of children: typically-developing preschoolers and children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD). This dissertation had two main goals. The first goal was to explore whether tasks thought to measure episodic foresight in children are related and whether, as has been hypothesized, they were related to theory of mind (ToM) and executive function (EF). Study 1 showed that after controlling for age and language ability, episodic foresight tasks were not intercorrelated, nor were they individually related to ToM or EF tasks. Importantly, however, an episodic foresight composite score was related to several EF tasks. Specifically, the results suggested a significant relation between episodic foresight and inhibitory control. The second goal of this dissertation was to explore the development of episodic foresight in children with ASD. Specifically, I tested whether children with ASD would perform more poorly on a series of episodic foresight tasks than a mental-age matched group of typically-developing children. Study 2 revealed significant group differences on several episodic foresight tasks, suggesting that children with ASD showed impairments in thinking about themselves in the future. These results are a timely contribution to the research on episodic foresight and will hopefully aid in the further development of tasks that adequately measure this important cognitive ability in children.

Firms in highly dynamic environments focusing on innovation in their products and services, often encounter elevated amounts of uncertainty regarding the future direction of technological change. Finding reliable and imbedded information enhances a firm’s ability to tackle new markets and take advantage of possible hidden opportunities. To reduce uncertainty, obtain hidden knowledge, and gain competitive advantage, environmental scanning, which is one of the main components of foresight, is recommended by scholars of strategic management. The process of detecting weak signals for shedding light what one authority calls “blurry future zones” (Day & Schoemaker, 2005, p.1) has currently been receiving attention in environmental scanning studies. Some studies emphasize the importance of the subject; yet they offer few practical methodologies for actual cases. To help address this gap, this research introduces a new approach for detecting weak signals during Internet-based environmental scanning by applying the Cluto toolkit (see Section 4.7) plus using human judgment. This novel methodology is applied to the application of Micro Tiles, a recent innovative product of a digital display company located in Ontario, Canada, Christie Digital Company. In the conduct of this exploratory research, about 40,000 HTML pages were retrieved from the Internet in a search during 2009. To extract weak signals information from the retrieved unstructured texts, documents were grouped into a number of clusters by the CLUTO software. Two subject matter experts compared and evaluated the cluster results for the purpose of finding potentially relevant information in regard to the company’s strategic intent. Analyzing the clusters, the experts reduced the number of clustered documents from the original corpus into smaller sets with the goal of finding more relevant and unexpected documents (weak signals). The relevancy and expectedness of information in documents were two measurements as related to weak signals. The trends of the study indicate that as anticipated both experts found more unexpected documents in the smaller sets rather than the larger ones. Moreover, regarding one expert’s analysis, the smaller sets contain documents that are more relevant to the domain of interest. Overall, according to one expert, documents existing in the smaller sets display more weak signals. This emerging methodology offers a practical procedure to apply web-based information in the development of a company’s environmental scanning procedures. Using this methodology, managers can employ both computer tools and human sense-making methods to detect potential weak signals and reduce certain biases in the detection process.

This thesis addresses conceptual and practical challenges in anticipating potential standardisation needs and developing relevant strategies throughout various stages of technological innovation. With increasing awareness of critical roles played by standardisation in supporting a variety of innovation activities, strategic foresight for timely and appropriate standardisation is becoming a crucial innovation policy interest in many countries. However, there are currently limited and fragmented studies on this issue, because of the complexity and variety involved in dynamic interplays between standardisation and other aspects of innovation. There are also increased challenges to develop coherent and long-term strategies for standardisation, due to modern technologies that are becoming more complex, interdisciplinary, and fast-evolving at the same time. Standards organisations and policymakers thus face significant challenges in developing standardisation strategies (in terms of what, why, when, how, and who) to support technological innovation more effectively. In this regard, the current research develops a systematic conceptual framework for more comprehensive understanding of standardisation – particularly highlighting its technological complexities – in the context of innovation, and a structured process model for using it to support strategic policy foresight. Building on the innovation systems perspective, preliminary framework and process model are first developed by adopting the holistic approach of strategic roadmapping as method, and incorporating a priori constructs drawn from existing literature relevant to standardisation. Then, multiple exploratory case studies covering various technology domains have been conducted to identify first order elements for their development. They are followed by an in-depth longitudinal case study on standardisation of photovoltaic technology, testing and refining the framework and process model by exploring complex dynamics between standardisation and innovation in greater detail. Interviews with experts across a broader range of domains and regions have then been carried out, to verify the framework and process model, including their utility and practicality. This thesis makes contributions to both theory and practice. With a systems perspective on standardisation, it provides a more holistic and comprehensive understanding of how standardisation supports innovation, highlighting its mediating roles between critical innovation activities and functions. It also presents a unified framework integrating various dimensions of standardisation with particular emphasis on technological elements, addressing challenges due to complex technological systems. Such new insights are expected to help standards organisations and policymakers with strategic foresight for standardisation in support of innovation, using the proposed framework and process model as practical tools for anticipating future standardisation needs and developing relevant strategies. In addition, the current research contributes to the roadmapping literature and practice, by presenting more structured and advanced frameworks and processes, and providing insights for using the roadmap-based approach as methods for data collection and analyses.