Développée dès la fin des années 1960 en France à partir de l’application des principes de la prospective, issus des travaux du philosophe Gaston Berger, à l’aménagement du territoire, la prospective territoriale fait aujourd’hui l’objet de nombreuses démarches tant au niveau étatique qu’au niveau des collectivités territoriales. Cette recherche propose d’interroger le sens des pratiques hétérogènes auxquelles elle a donné lieu, et entreprend pour ce faire de dénaturaliser la prospective devenue, au gré de ses différentes traductions dans les mécanismes de la décision publique, un « objet » aux contours imprécis. Nous proposons d’appréhender la prospective, d’abord présentée par Berger comme une « technique rationnelle » œuvrant à rendre l’action efficace pour l’homme, comme un « instrument de gouvernementalité » ou encore un « instrument d’action publique » producteur de normes (et en particulier de normes territoriales), ainsi que de mettre en exergue les conséquences des métamorphoses de la régulation politique sur l’état de cet « instrument prospective » et ses effets. En tant que rationalité cognitive (mode de connaissance du territoire), la prospective territoriale semble d’une part opérer un retour à la question anthropologique : elle se fait sociétale, toujours plus attentive aux pratiques spatiales. En tant que rationalité politique (mode d’administration de l’institution et du territoire), ses démarches deviennent d’autre part le lieu d’une mise à l’épreuve des catégories démocratiques encore liées à l’idéal moderne du territoire. Il appert ainsi que l’examen des dispositifs de prospective territoriale présente un intérêt pour l’analyse de la dimension spatiale de l’action politique, comme pour celle des modalités évolutives de l’action publique. / Territorial Foresight Studies, developed in France at the end of the 1960s based on the application of philosopher Gaston Berger’s work to territorial management, has today become an area for numerous approaches at the state level as well as at the level of regional and local authorities. This thesis proposes to question the meaning of the heterogeneous practices to which it has given rise, and undertake, to that end, to denaturalize Foresight Studies which have become, in their various translations into the mechanisms of public decision, an “object” of imprecise outline. We propose to understand Foresight Studies, first presented by Berger as a “rational technique” working to render action effective for Man, as an “instrument of governmentality”, or again, an “instrument of public action” productive of norms (and in particular territorial norms), as well as to underline the consequences of the metamorphoses in political regulation on the state of this “foresight tool” and its effects. As a cognitive rationality (a mode of knowledge about territory), territorial foresight appears, on the one hand, to prepare for a return to the anthropological question: it becomes societal, ever more attentive to spatial practices; yet as political rationality (a mode of institutional and territorial administration), its approaches become, on the other hand, the site at which are tested democratic categories still tied to the modern ideal of territory. Evidently, the examination of apparatuses of territorial foresight are of interest for the analysis of the spatial dimension of political action, as well as for the evolutionary modalities of public action.

Foresight has been increasingly acknowledged as a valuable policy-making process. It has evolved from informing policies about key technological fields that would be of outmost importance in the future to (re)orienting and opening up policies towards societal needs. The wide application of foresight would benefit from a common evaluation and assessment framework that hardly exists today. This would facilitate the identification of good practices irrespective of case-specific objectives while it would also allow for benchmarking and coordination of policies for socio-economic development. Such a common assessment framework would require a higher level of reference, i.e. the attainment of generic goals, beyond the specific objectives of each case. This higher level of reference is offered by the commonly agreed goal of the EU to become 'the most competitive and dynamic knowledge-based economy in the world' by also promoting participatory governance in ensuring sustainable development. Apart from their case-specific impacts, foresight exercises have wider impacts in terms of networks creation, actors' alignment, knowledge diffusion and creation, or promoting public engagement in policy-making. Thus, the two 'pillars' of the 'knowledge society' and 'participatory governance', are both relevant and feasible to become the generic level of goals where a common foresight impact assessment framework can be based. The thesis argues that such an assessment framework can be built based on the main features and pre-conditions of more participatory, 'knowledge societies' and the broader impacts of foresight systems. To this end, it starts with exploring the main features of modern societies and the pre-conditions of what may be called in future 'more participatory knowledge societies'. Then follows the examination of foresight literature to better understand the main functions and impacts of foresight systems and identify relevant areas of contribution in relation to more participatory, 'knowledge societies'. The foresight impact assessment framework is eventually built inspired by relevant frameworks and concepts of socio-economic and research programme evaluation in order to adequately address the challenges faced in foresight evaluation. Its validity is then tested through case studies. The case study analysis demonstrates the comprehensiveness of the framework and further refines the main hypotheses and associated success factors, leading to certain foresight principles to be taken on board for foresight exercises to contribute to more participatory, 'knowledge societies'.

If new build nuclear reactors are built in the UK they will provide a large low carbon thermal resource that can be recovered for heating services through heat networks (district heating). There are however questions about the geographic location of nuclear sites relative to heating demand and public/user interpretations of a potentially controversial technology to consider. This thesis includes three research themes that explore these issues. The first is an assessment of potential non-technical barriers to nuclear heat network development. The second is a focus group approach to studying local resident responses to nuclear heat network technology both as potential users, and as public groups. The third theme considers the technical potential for a heat network connecting the Hartlepool nuclear site to local heating demand centres. The research finds that there is potential for nuclear heat networks to take 70,000 existing users off the natural gas in the Hartlepool area. Following series of expert interviews it finds no non-technical barriers that would be unique to nuclear heat networks as opposed to other heat network types. It also suggests that the technology could be acceptable to local residents if it is framed as a local resource that benefits the local area. These findings indicate that there could be similar potential at Heysham and Oldbury nuclear sites.

Orientadores: Sandra de Negraes Brisolla, Celso Luiz Salgueiro Lage / Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Geociencias / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-08T00:15:21Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 DalPoz_MariaEsterSoares_D.pdf: 3561569 bytes, checksum: 30c05954aee79c15dc53dc4d67744804 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2006 / Resumo: O objetivo deste trabalho, tomando como caso a pesquisa sobre biotecnologia e genes, é demonstrar que certos países, como o Brasil, produzem ciência, mas nem sempre são capazes de absorvê-la, transformando estes conhecimentos em inovação tecnológica. A hipótese central é que há uma economia política nos TRIPS -acordos Trade Related Intellectual Property Rights, da Organização Mundial do Comércio. O sistema internacional de Direitos de Propriedade Intelectual (DPI), no âmbito dos TRIPS, constitui fator de geração de assimetria da apropriação tecnológica, apresentando correlação com o nível de desenvolvimento econômico dos países. A diversidade das legislações nacionais em DPI, num cenário harmonizador dado pelos TRIPS, constitui fator de aprofundamento daquela assimetria, ainda que, por pressuposto, aqueles acordos tenham sido criados para a melhoria das condições de competitividade do comércio mundial. No ambiente regulatório dado por TRIPS, a apropriação de biotecnologias genômicas por países em desenvolvimento, como o Brasil, depende de um ambiente de inovação capaz de articular políticas de C&T e organização da pesquisa. Também depende da integração de dinâmicas próprias de certos Sistemas Nacionais de Inovação, de um conjunto de dispositivos políticos em Ciência e Tecnologia e de competências das instituições que realizam pesquisa e desenvolvimento. Estas capacidades se refletem no padrão de patenteamento, licenciamento e comercialização de biotecnologias genômicas e dependem dos marcos regulatórios legais. A aprendizagem para absorver conhecimentos gerados pelo próprio sistema de inovação, ou fora dele, é um dos pontos centrais da capacidade de apropriação. Está condicionada pela consciência da relação desigual entre os países na disputa pelos acordos TRIPS e pela possibilidade do traçado de uma estratégia capaz de superar essa disparidade. A supremacia econômica de alguns países serve como ferramenta de pressão para que se difundam novos padrões legais de DPI. Trata-se de entender o processo de fortalecimento dos DPI no âmbito da economia baseada em conhecimento, frente à assimetria do desenvolvimento dos países. Neste contexto, o trabalho mapeia e busca entender a dinâmica de geração de pesquisa científica e sua organização. Explora a base de apropriação de agrobiotecnologias genômicas (ABG) incorporadas em patentes da base do escritório norteamericano de patentes.O estudo de campo consiste no mapeamento das citações uma patente por outra ou por outras, das relações entre detentores de patentes de ABG, que formam uma rede de inovação. Tal rede é explorada como uma comunidade social em ciência, mostrando-se que a geografia da apropriação é relevante e que tem contornos definidos. Para tal, foram criados e aplicados indicadores de C&T e de dinâmica de rede. Este procedimento constitui uma metodologia de monitoramento de mercados de biotecnologias. Poucos atores da rede mostram-se capazes de absorver conhecimentos genômicos e transformá-los em inovação, apesar de estes estarem disponíveis em bancos internacionais de DNA alimentados pela comunidade científica internacional. Esta condição demonstra que há uma governança da inovação nestas redes, cuja base nem sempre são os sistemas de difusão de conhecimentos, mas os de apropriação diferencial. Tal diagnóstico é utilizado para a prescrição de ações que visam / Abstract: The objective of this work, considering the research on biotechnology and genes, is to show that certain countries, such as Brazil, produce science, but few of them have absorptive capacity, transforming the knowledge into technological innovation. The main hypothesis is that there is a political economy on TRIPS -Trade Related Intellectual Property Rights Agreements of the World Trade Organization. The appropriation of the genomic biotechnologies in developing countries, such as Brazil, depends on an innovative environment that can shape S&T policies, as well as on the organization of research within the context of Intellectual Property Rights (IPR¿s). The IPR¿s international system, in the TRIPS domains, is a factor of asymmetry of technological appropriation, which presents a strong correlation with the level of economical development of the countries. The diversity of national legislations as regards IPR¿s, within a harmonizing scenario provided by the TRIPS, constitutes a factor that increases that asymmetry even though, by definition, those agreements are created to enhance the conditions of competitiveness of the world trade. The systemic appropriation of biotechnologies derived from genomics depends on the integration of characteristic dynamics of certain National Systems of Innovation, on a set of political devices regarding Science and Technology, and on the activity of institutions that that carry out research and development. Those activities influence the standards of patenting, licensing and commercialization of genomic biotechnologies, and depend on legal regulatory landmarks in terms of the IPR¿s. Learning to acquire knowledge generated by the innovation system itself, or outside it, is one of the core points of appropriation. It is conditioned by the awareness of the uneven relation between the countries in the dispute of the TRIPS agreements, and by the possibility of devising a strategy which can overcome that disparity. The economic supremacy of some countries is used as a tool to press for new legal standards of IPR to be spread out. It is about understanding the strengthening process of the IPR¿s within the economy based on knowledge facing the asymmetry in the development of countries.Within this context, this work aims at clarifying the dynamics in the generation of scientific research as regards the organization of the genomic science. It explores the appropriation of genomic agrobiotechnologies (GAB) incorporated in patents of United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO).The field study consists of mapping citation patterns of one patent instead of other or others, and the relations between the GAB patent holders, who comprise an innovation network. Such net, from the perspective of the social community in science, is explored by showing that the appropriation geography matters and that the net has defined frontiers. In order to do so, we created and applied S&T and net dynamics indicators. This procedure concerns to be a foresight tool for biotechnology markets.Few actors in the net were able to acquire genomic knowledge and transform it into innovation, although it was available in international DNA databanks that receive input from the whole international scientific community. This condition shows that there is some sort of administration in the innovation of these nets whose basis is not always the system of information broadcast, but rather one of differential appropriation. Such diagnosis is used in the prescription of actions that aim at improving the Brazilian performance in terms of research development and its relations with biotechnological appropriation / Doutorado / Doutor em Política Científica e Tecnológica

Studien påvisar att en trianguleringsmetod för att utföra foresight på ett resurseffektivt sätt går att tillämpa. Den framtagna metoden Foresight Triangulation gav en träffsäkerhet på 80% som anses vara bra och implementerbar hos världens företag. Implementeringen av Foresight Triangulation på fallstudien hos WSP resulterade i en zombielista som angav två övergripande sektorer (Transport & Infrastructure samt Industry) med underliggande undersektorer som troligtvis kommer att ersättas år 2026. / The study shows that a triangulation method for performing foresight can be applied in a resource efficient way. The developed method Foresight Triangulation produced an accuracy of 80% which is considered good and implementable at the world's enterprises. The implementation of Foresight Triangulation on the case study at WSP resulted in a zombie list that indicated two overall sectors (Transport & Infrastructure and Industry) with underlying subsectors that are likely to be replaced by 2026.

No description available.

本研究之動機起於麥肯錫顧問公司的調查報告，報告中提到，若企業有良好的公司治理制度，投資者願意支付多一些以持有該公司股票。本研究從公司治理和產業前景兩個角度切入，並參考國內外文獻選出四個代表性的公司治理變數以及從國內券商和金融商情機構所公開之產業研究報告中，建立產業景氣循環相對位置之虛擬變數，目的是量化質性的報告，期望能理出一條脈絡。 根據本研究實証結果可知，就公司治理變數方面，僅有代表資訊揭露品質的指標即”是否有發行海外存託憑證”，此變數與股價溢酬關係為正向且顯著。因此，當我們還在對財務報表的會計師查核簽證感到質疑之時，或是証期會尚未將上市櫃資訊評鑑工作步入正軌之時，本研究所採用之海外存託憑證變數，似乎是現階段可供參考且實用的代表指標；至於所選用之其他公司治理變數，不論董監持股、管理者持股或是否設有獨立董監，都對股價溢酬的影響顯得關係不大，也呼應了行政院對証交法關於獨立董監的設立，採日本以鼓勵自願的做法而非強迫。 就產業前景而言，預測本來就是一件很不容易的工作，更何況是瞬息萬變的高科技產業，由本研究得出的結論恰好與反市場心理法則不謀而合，或許是分析師錯把許多數據指標誤認為是領先指標，並依此對未來前景做預測；但也有可能是現今的投資者都非常的精明，善用反市場心理法則來投資操作，姑且不論問題是出在分析師或是聰明的投資者，但根據本研究，至少發現對兩兆產業而言，若是將產業研究報告建議當作投資的唯一圭臬，似乎並不是明智之舉。 / The motivation of the thesis origin from the reports of McKinsey consulting company. According to the reports that institutional investors would willing to pay premium to hold the stock if the company build up well corporate governance institutions. The thesis decide to incise from corporate governance and industry foresight, and then find four representative variables of corporate governance and constitute dummy variables of industry recycle position. The aim is trying to understand which variable would affect premium through earnings-transmitting effect. Based on the empirical results, with view of corporate governance, the quality of information transparency (whether issue deposit receipt or not) is positive and significant to premium. Consequently it seems to be a practical index when we get confused to the reality of financial reports, moreover, the other variables about corporate governance are nonsignificant including the holding of director and supervisor、the managerial holding or whether constitute the independent director and supervisor. The conclusions about whether constitute independent director and supervisor consist with the act of government which considers that modifying direction of the security law is free to choose instead of forcing every company to do so. With the view of industry foresight, it’s not a piece of cake to predict how it’s going in the future. According to the results that psychological rule of anti-market seems to be a usable method. Keywords：Corporate Governance、industry foresight、industry analysis

Recentemente o setor da construção civil no Brasil vem apresentando um ritmo intenso de crescimento, cujo dinamismo se deve às mudanças institucionais e a evolução do cenário macroeconômico. O volume crescente das obras tem pressionado os setores de insumos e alguns reflexos disto já foram sentidos, como problemas localizados de abastecimento e de variação dos preços de alguns materiais. Neste cenário insere-se a presente pesquisa, de caráter exploratória, que se propõe a realizar o diagnóstico do setor de produção e comercialização de insumos (materiais) da Cadeia Produtiva da Construção Habitacional, segundo os princípios do conceito de prospecção tecnológica. O método básico de pesquisa correspondeu às pesquisas bibliográfica e descritiva, utilizando-se da pesquisa de campo para a obtenção de dados atualizados. Para realizar o diagnóstico foi adotado um modelo conceitual de prospecção tecnológica de análise de cadeias produtivas, proposto por Castro & Lima (2001). Os principais resultados obtidos foram modelagem, análise de desempenho, identificação dos fatores críticos, respectivas forças impulsoras e restritivas e, por fim, a determinação de gargalos do setor. O estudo mostra que todos os segmentos deste setor estão direcionando seus esforços na busca da eficiência produtiva, como meio de garantir o fornecimento de seus produtos ao setor da construção. Quanto ao método adotado, pode-se concluir que apresenta forte potencial de ser utilizado para análise dos setores e cadeias produtivas que compõe o complexo industrial de materiais de construção. / The Brazilian construction sector has recently been showing intense growth, and its dynamism is due to institutional changes and evolution in the macroeconomic scenario. The increasing volume of new constructions has put pressure on the construction materials sectors and some consequences of this situation have already been noticed, such as local supply problems and variation in the price of some materials. This explorative research is inserted in this scenario and aims to make a diagnosis of the production and sales sectors of materials in the house construction production chain, using the concept of technological foresight. The method is based on bibliographical and descriptive researches, also using field data collection to gather up-to-date information. The conceptual model proposed by Castro & Lima (2001) of technological foresight for production chain analysis was adopted. The main results were the modeling, performance analysis, identification of critical factors, their respective driving and restrictive forces and, finally, the determination of bottlenecks in the sector. The study shows that all segments of the construction sector are focusing their efforts to obtain production capacity efficiency, so as to guarantee the supply of their products. It can be concluded that the adopted method shows strong potential to be used to analyze production chains in the construction materials industry.

Le mode de vie des pays industrialisés, basé sur le consumérisme, est considéré comme l’un des principaux moteurs de l’usage de ressources et de la dégradation de l’environnement global. Sa substitution par d’autres modes de vie constitue l’une des clés pour bâtir un futur soutenable, d’autant qu’il tend à être imité dans les pays émergents et en développement. Pourtant, la question de la transition des modes de vie a été jusqu’à présent relativement peu investie par les politiques publiques, y compris par celles qui visent à répondre aux enjeux de la transition énergétique et de l’atténuation du changement climatique. C’est dans le but d’encourager les parties prenantes de ces enjeux à se saisir de cette question que nos recherches ont été initiées. Pour cela, nous avons choisi de nous concentrer sur la démarche prospective, qui est l’un des outils d’aide à la décision privilégiés pour éclairer les politiques de l’énergie et du changement climatique dont les enjeux portent sur les moyen et long termes. Nous avons constaté que la question était jusqu’à présent très partiellement abordée dans la plupart des exercices de prospective énergie-climat. Ce constat tient en partie au fait que, alors que la pratique actuelle accorde une place importante à la modélisation, le formalisme des modèles utilisés n’a bien souvent pas été pensé pour traiter de cette notion multidimensionnelle. Dans ce contexte, notre contribution porte sur les plans conceptuel et méthodologique. Nous avons dans un premier temps défini un cadre conceptuel pour aborder la notion de mode de vie et clarifier son rôle dans le système énergétique. Dans un second temps, nous avons proposé une approche par la modélisation destinée à simuler des scénarios d’évolution des modes de vie à l’échelle de la France. Cette approche formelle, dont le développement a constitué le cœur de nos recherches, permet de quantifier la demande en logements, la demande en mobilité et la demande en biens et services qui résultent de ces scénarios et définissent la structure des usages de l’énergie. La mise en œuvre de cette approche est illustrée dans ce manuscrit par la simulation de trois scénarios d’évolution des modes de vie. / Consumerist lifestyles in industrialized countries are considered one of the main drivers of global resource use and environment degradation. Changes in these lifestyles are therefore one of the keys to achieving a sustainable future, especially as these lifestyles also tend to be pursued by some economic classes in developing countries. Yet the lifestyles issue has only marginally been considered in public policies until now, including the ones that aimed to address the challenges of energy transition and climate change mitigation. Our research was initiated in order to encourage all parties engaging with these challenges to take into account our future lifestyles in this context. To this aim, we focused on the prospective approach. It is indeed one of the tools and processes that is most commonly used to support decision-makers on the long-term challenges raised by energy transition and tackling climate change. We found that most foresight studies did not go in depth while addressing the issue of lifestyles, especially the model-based studies. Indeed, the models generally used in these studies are not thought out to allow for proper consideration of this multidimensional issue. To answer for this, we propose a conceptual framework that allows proper understanding of the lifestyle concept and clarifies its role in the energy system. As a core contribution, we developed a modelling approach to simulate lifestyle-change scenarios for France. This formal approach allows us to quantify the demands for housing, mobility, goods and services that arises in these scenarios and defines the structure of energy uses. Three scenarios for lifestyle changes are considered in this manuscript to demonstrate implementations of the proposed approach.

Recentemente o setor da construção civil no Brasil vem apresentando um ritmo intenso de crescimento, cujo dinamismo se deve às mudanças institucionais e a evolução do cenário macroeconômico. O volume crescente das obras tem pressionado os setores de insumos e alguns reflexos disto já foram sentidos, como problemas localizados de abastecimento e de variação dos preços de alguns materiais. Neste cenário insere-se a presente pesquisa, de caráter exploratória, que se propõe a realizar o diagnóstico do setor de produção e comercialização de insumos (materiais) da Cadeia Produtiva da Construção Habitacional, segundo os princípios do conceito de prospecção tecnológica. O método básico de pesquisa correspondeu às pesquisas bibliográfica e descritiva, utilizando-se da pesquisa de campo para a obtenção de dados atualizados. Para realizar o diagnóstico foi adotado um modelo conceitual de prospecção tecnológica de análise de cadeias produtivas, proposto por Castro & Lima (2001). Os principais resultados obtidos foram modelagem, análise de desempenho, identificação dos fatores críticos, respectivas forças impulsoras e restritivas e, por fim, a determinação de gargalos do setor. O estudo mostra que todos os segmentos deste setor estão direcionando seus esforços na busca da eficiência produtiva, como meio de garantir o fornecimento de seus produtos ao setor da construção. Quanto ao método adotado, pode-se concluir que apresenta forte potencial de ser utilizado para análise dos setores e cadeias produtivas que compõe o complexo industrial de materiais de construção. / The Brazilian construction sector has recently been showing intense growth, and its dynamism is due to institutional changes and evolution in the macroeconomic scenario. The increasing volume of new constructions has put pressure on the construction materials sectors and some consequences of this situation have already been noticed, such as local supply problems and variation in the price of some materials. This explorative research is inserted in this scenario and aims to make a diagnosis of the production and sales sectors of materials in the house construction production chain, using the concept of technological foresight. The method is based on bibliographical and descriptive researches, also using field data collection to gather up-to-date information. The conceptual model proposed by Castro & Lima (2001) of technological foresight for production chain analysis was adopted. The main results were the modeling, performance analysis, identification of critical factors, their respective driving and restrictive forces and, finally, the determination of bottlenecks in the sector. The study shows that all segments of the construction sector are focusing their efforts to obtain production capacity efficiency, so as to guarantee the supply of their products. It can be concluded that the adopted method shows strong potential to be used to analyze production chains in the construction materials industry.