La tesi esamina il tema del capital management nelle banche, con particolare riferimento all’impatto della regolamentazione e della corporate governance sulle decisioni in tema di patrimonializzazione ed esposizione al rischio. La letteratura evidenzia come l’attuale framework regolamentare possa produrre effetti indesiderati, inducendo le banche ad assumere un livello di rischio non coerente con il patrimonio disponibile; anche con riferimento alla corporate governance i contributi empirici evidenziano risultati contrastanti. Partendo dai risultati di tale review, nella tesi si analizza il comportamento di un vasto campione di banche europee tra il 2006 e il 2010, tenendo conto delle variabili principali che determinano le scelte sul livello di patrimonializzazione e di rischio. In particolare, nel primo capitolo si valuta l’impatto della pressione regolamentare sulle variazioni di capital ratio ed esposizione al rischio in un vasto campione di banche europee. I risultati suggeriscono che il comportamento delle banche sembra dipendere dalla definizione di patrimonio utilizzata, ossia dalla qualità degli strumenti ricompresi nei coefficienti di solvibilità. Il secondo capitolo si concentra su un campione di grandi banche europee: tale analisi consente di rilevare come la regolamentazione e i meccanismi di corporate governance costituiscano fattori rilevanti e complementari nel determinare alla relazione tra patrimonializzazione e rischio. / This thesis examines capital management in banks, with special reference to the impact of regulation and corporate governance on the decisions on capital and risk exposure. Past literature highlights how the present regulatory framework might produce unwanted effects, inducing banks to take a level of risks not consistent with their capital base; also with reference to corporate governance, past empirical contributions present controversial results. On the basis of the review of the literature, this study analyses the behaviour of a wide sample of European banks between 2006 and 2010, taking into consideration the main variables that influence the decisions on capital and risk. In particular, the first chapter evaluates the impact of regulatory pressure on changes in capital ratio and risk for a wide sample of European banks. Results suggest that banks behaviour depends on the capital ratio considered, i.e. on the quality of the instruments included in the capital base. The second chapter focuses on a sample of large European banks: such analysis suggests that regulation and corporate governance mechanisms are crucial and act complementarily in determining the relationship between capital and risk.

本文以1999年第4季至2011年第3季24家銀行的追蹤資料，分析銀行資本與金融控股體系對銀行放款管道的影響。全體樣本銀行的實證結果顯示，沒有顯著證據支持放款管道的存在。銀行淨值及調整成本對放款有顯著的影響，支持銀行資本管道存在。另外，銀行加入金融控股體系之後，調整成本的影響增加。 大型銀行樣本的實證結果顯示，大型銀行放款管道的作用不顯著；但是，銀行資本管道呈現顯著影響。小型銀行放款管道及資本管道皆沒有顯著證據支持兩者存在，但非存款負債對小型銀行放款的影響顯著。除此之外，小型銀行在金融控股體系下，短期投資及非存款負債對放款的影響顯著。由此結果可知，大小型銀行皆可藉由資產負債的調整來抵銷貨幣政策的衝擊，維持放款的成長。

How do financial variables, such as firms’ cash flow and banks’ capital, affect macroeconomic variables, such as investment and GDP growth? What are the macroeconomic effects of exchange rate depreciation in countries where firms and households have extensive foreign-currency liabilities? The doctoral thesis Empirical Essays on Macro-Financial Linkages consists of four separate papers in the field of empirical macroeconomics. The first three papers investigate the macroeconomic implications of financial-market imperfections. Imperfect information between borrowers and lenders makes it more costly for firms to finance investments with external funds than with internal funds. The external finance risk premium depends on the strength of firm balance sheets, which hence affects firm investment. The first paper, The Effect of Cash Flow on Investment: An Empirical Test of the Balance Sheet Channel, examines the importance of financial constraints for investment using a large Swedish firm-level data set which includes many smaller firms (where balance sheet effects are likely to be especially important). I find a positive effect of cash flow on investment, controlling for fundamental determinants of investment and any information in cash flow about investment opportunities. As predicted by the balance sheet channel, the estimated effect of cash flow on investment is especially large for firms which, a priori, are more likely to be financially constrained (low-dividend, small and non-group firms). Moreover, the investment-cash flow sensitivity is significantly larger and more persistent during the first half of the sample period, which includes a severe banking crisis and recession. The second paper, Credit Matters: Empirical Evidence on U.S. Macro-Financial Linkages, written jointly with Tamim Bayoumi, estimates the impact of an adverse shock to bank capital on credit availability and spending in the United States, allowing for feedback from spending and income through the balance sheets of banks, firms and households. We find that an exogenous fall in the bank capital/asset ratio by one percentage point reduces real GDP by some 1 ½ percent through its effects on credit availability, while an exogenous fall in demand of 1 percent of GDP is gradually magnified to around 2 percent through financial feedback effects. The third paper, The Effects of Real Exchange Rate Shocks in an Economy with Extreme Liability Dollarization, studies the effects of real exchange rate depreciation in Bolivia, where over 95 percent of bank credit is denominated in dollars. Currency depreciation increases the domestic-currency value of foreign-currency liabilities and the debt service burden, thus adversely affecting firm balance sheets. A key issue for policymakers in countries with widespread foreign-currency borrowing is whether depreciation would have the standard, expansionary effect on output, or if an adverse balance sheet would dominate. I find that real exchange depreciation has negligible effects on output, since a contractionary balance-sheet effect on investment is counteracted by the standard expansionary effect on net exports. The fourth paper, Uncovered Interest Parity in a Partially Dollarized Developing Country: Does UIP Hold in Bolivia? (And If Not, Why Not?), studies another aspect of macro-financial linkages. The so-called uncovered interest parity (UIP) condition states that interest rate differentials compensate for expected exchange rate changes, equalizing the expected returns from holding assets which only differ in terms of currency denomination. Because of data availability problems, there is a lack of empirical tests of UIP for developing countries. The paper studies the case of Bolivia, where there are bank accounts which only differ in terms of currency denomination (bolivianos or U.S. dollars). I find that UIP does not hold in Bolivia, but that the deviations are smaller than in most other studies of developed and emerging economies. / Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögskolan, 2009 Sammanfattning jämte 4 uppsatser

Bank capital has a critical role in banking business the world over. Capital is a principal aspect of regulation and will determine how long a bank remains in business from a regulatory point of view. Its cost and the regulatory amount have an impact on the competitiveness of an institution and will influence the rate of expansion of a bank. The contribution of capital to the profitability and survival of a commercial bank remain an unresolved empirical issue. Prior research on the relationship between capital and profitability has largely focused on developed economies, especially the USA, and Europe. However, the results have been inconclusive. There is no evidence of such kind of a research done to date that focuses on an emerging economy such as South Africa. The seemingly conflicting finding coupled with regulations imposing equity capital adequacy from the Basel 11 Accord present an opportune platform for further research on the relationship between capital and profitability. Using South Africa as a unit of analysis and using the Generalised Methods of Moments (GMM), and Panel Two Stage Least Squares (2SLS) or Pooled IV method as the estimation techniques, this study tested the hypothesis that there is a positive and statistically significant relationship between bank capital and profitability. The results from the study provide evidence of a positive relationship between capital ratio (CAR), return on equity (ROE) and return on assets (ROA) and supported the generally held notion that there is a positive relationship between bank capital and profitability. This research output provided new insights into the long-run impact of bank capital on profitability and survival. From a bank specific strategic decision-making perspective, this would assist financial institutions and investors in tailoring investment decisions in response to policy decisions that relate to bank capital. From the public policy perspective, this would assist both governments and regulators in formulating better- informed policy decisions regarding the importance of bank capital. / Business Management / D. Com. (Business Management)

Text in Afrikkans / Summaries in English and Afrikaans / The capital-adequacy problem is essentially concerned with the amount of capital that a bank should maintain in order to conduct its operations in a prudent manner. Because one of the primary functions of bank capital is to act as a risk cushion for the protection of a bank's depositors, a bank's capital funds are often regarded as comprising an insurance element. The capital-adequacy concept, therefore, may be seen as part of the overall banking risk, or prudential management. An attempt has been made to indicate that bank supervisors should use not only capital ratios when analysing a bank's capital position. Other factors, such as asset quality and other financial risks, should also be taken in consideration. Financial ratio analysis, however, provides bank supervisors with useful information. When combining ratio analysis with non-quantifiable factors, bank supervisors may indeed achieve their goal of determining capital adequacy. / Die kapitaaltoereikendheidsprobleem is hoofsaaklik gebaseer op die hoeveelheid kapitaal waaroor 'n bankinstelling moet beskik, ten einde die bankbesigheid op 'n verstandige wyse te bedryf. Een van die primere funksies van kapitaal is om te dien as verliesabsorberingsbuffer ter beskerming van 'n bankinstelling se deposante, en daarom word toereikende kapitaal dikwels geag om 'n soort versekeringselement te bevat. Die konsep van kapitaaltoereikendheid kan dus beskou word as deel van die totale risikobestuurskonsep. Daar is tydens die studie gepoog om aan te dui dat banktoesighouers nie net kapitaalverhoudings behoort te gebruik om 'n bankinstelling se kapitaalposisie te ontleed nie. Ander faktore, soos batekwaliteit en antler finansiele risiko's, moet ook in ag geneem word. Finansiele verhoudingsgetalontledings voorsien banktoesighouers van waardevolle inligting. Indien verhoudingsgetalle egter met nie-gekwantifiseerde inligting gekombineer sou word, kan banktoesighouers hul doel om kapitaaltoereikendheid te bepaal, bereik. / M.Com. (Business Management)

The financial stability of banks is crucial if they are to fulfil their role in facilitating transactions between borrowers and lenders. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of credit risk on the South African banking industry following a movement in credit ratings by rating agencies. Data from a sample of 11 banks were collected from 2006 to 2015. Econometric regression analysis was used to analyse the data. The results show that inflation, credit ratings, exchange rate, gross domestic product, unemployment rate, capital adequacy ratio and size of the bank are significant factors that determine "non-performing loans". Therefore, it is imperative that banks continuously monitor these factors and adapt their credit policies on "non-performing loans". This action would prepare banks for any adverse effects and ensure that the banking industry remains a sound and efficient contributor to the growth of the South African economy. / Business Management / M. Com. (Business Management)

Doctorat en Sciences politiques et sociales / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

Cette thèse traite de deux nouveaux débats sur le central banking qui ont émergé après la crise financière de 2008: le débat sur les pertes financières aux bilans des banques centrales, et le débat sur le niveau élevé des taux bancaires par rapport aux taux de marché après la crise. Les deux premiers chapitres s’inscrivent dans le premier débat. Le lien entre la solidité financière des banques centrales et l’inflation est étudié empiriquement dans le premier chapitre, en se basant sur un large panel de 82 pays. Théoriquement, ce lien est potentiellement présent lorsque le gouvernement ne soutient pas financièrement la banque centrale et que celle-ci ne peut donc compter que sur elle-même pour améliorer sa situation financière. Les résultats du premier chapitre montrent qu’en pratique tel est effectivement le cas: les détériorations aux bilans des banques centrales s’accompagnent d’une inflation plus forte lorsque la banque centrale n’a pas de soutien fiscal. Les résultats ne montrent pas de lien dans un contexte général, comme la théorie le suggère. Dans le second chapitre, il est analysé et conceptualisé l’argument selon lequel une banque centrale peut mettre fin à un régime de change fixe ou quasi-fixe par peur de futures pertes financières. L’analyse est ensuite appliquée au cas du cours plancher mis en place par la Banque Centrale de Suisse (BNS) entre 2011 et 2015 vis-à-vis de l’euro. Cet argument a été avancé par beaucoup pour expliquer la fin de la politique de cours plancher en Suisse, sans qu’aucune recherche avant celle-ci n’évalue sa pertinence. Les estimations empiriques du Chapitre 2 permettent de montrer que cet argument avait une crédibilité: elles montrent que dans des scénarios crédibles, en cassant le peg avec l’euro 17 mois plus tard, la BNS aurait essuyé une perte considérable, dépassant un seuil perçu comme limite par beaucoup de banquiers centraux. Le dernier chapitre de cette thèse s’intéresse à l’écart entre les taux de dépôts et le taux de marché en zone euro (l’EURIBOR) qui est devenu significativement positif après la crise, conduisant certains à parler de « sur-rémunération » des dépôts. Ce chapitre soutient que la majorité de cet écart ne s’explique non pas par un comportement anormal des dépôts comme certains l’ont avancé, mais au contraire par une perte de pertinence de l’EURIBOR. Construisant une alternative à l’EURIBOR, ce chapitre conclut que le risque bancaire a eu une influence primordiale sur le niveau de rémunération des dépôts dans le monde d’après-crise. / This thesis deals with the new debates on central banking which arose after the 2008 global financial crisis. More particularly, two of such debates are addressed: the debates on the financial losses in central banks’ balance sheets, and the debates on the high level of bank rates compared to market interest rates following the financial crisis. The two first chapters are related to the first debate. The link between central bank financial strength and inflation is empirically examined in a large sample of 82 countries. Theoretically, this link is potentially present when the government does not fiscally support the central bank, so that the central bank can only rely on itself to improve its financial situation. The results show that in practice central bank balance sheet deteriorations indeed lead to higher inflation when fiscal support is absent. The results, based on a particularly meticulous and consistent sample selection, do not show the presence of a link between the two variables in a general context, as the theory suggests. In the second chapter, I analyze and conceptualize the argument according to which a central bank can end a peg exchange rate regime by fear of making significant losses in the future, and I apply this analysis to the Swiss franc peg between 2011 and 2015. This argument was brought forward by many commentators to explain the Swiss move, while no research before this one did study the relevance of this argument. The empirical estimates in Chapter 2 show that this argument indeed had some credibility: under some credible scenarios the Swiss central bank would have incurred significant losses by breaking its peg 17 months later, with losses exceeding a threshold judged as relevant by many central bankers. The last chapter of this thesis focuses on the spread between deposit rates and market interest rates in the Eurozone (more specifically, the EURIBOR), which became significantly positive after the financial crisis, leading some commentators to claim that deposits were over-remunerated. This chapter upholds that the major part of this spread is not due to an « abnormal » behavior of deposits but is rather due to the fact that the EURIBOR has become irrelevant after the global financial crisis. Building an alternative to the EURIBOR, the chapter concludes that banking risks have been having a major influence on the level of deposit remuneration.