We use four current meter mooring records and quasi-synoptic hydrographic observations in conjunction with a one-dimensional quasi-geostrophic (QG) linear stability model to investigate the downstream changes in the Brazil Current (BC) System off the southeast Brazil (22°S-28°S) as well as its implications. The dataset depicts the downstream thickening of the BC: Its vertical extension increases from 350 m at 22.7°S to 800 m at 27.9°S. Most of this deepening occurs between 25.5°S and 27.9°S, and it is likely linked to the Santos bifurcation. To the south of that bifurcation, the BC transport is increased by at least 5 Sv. Moreover, the analysis of the water column average kinetic energy (IKE) and its barotropic/baroclinic partition show that the Santos bifurcation is associated with a substantial increase in the barotropic component of the BC System: The IKE is, on average, 70 % baroclinic to the north and becomes 63 % barotropic to the south of that bifurcation. The water column average eddy kinetic energy (IEKE) and its ratio to the IKE quantitatively reveal the conspicuous mesoscale activity associated to the BC off the southeast Brazil; accordingly, the IEKE accounts for (30-60)% of the IKE. The linear stability model predicts southwestward-propagating fastest-growing waves [~(180-190) km] within 25.5°S-27.9°S and quasi-standing most-unstable waves (~230 km) at 22.7°S, roughly consistent with observations and previous work. We also assess the ability of the QG modes and surface QG (SQG) solutions to represent the vertical structure of the sub-inertial time-varying flow in the southwestern Atlantic. At two moorings, which present a sharp near-surface decay in the vertical structure of the 1st empirical orthogonal function (EOF) of current meter time series, the SQG solutions are consistent with the data, accounting for up to 85 % of the 1st EOF variance. The SQG solutions are nonetheless indistinguishable from a four QG mode representation. In contrast, at a third mooring that do not present such sharp-decay, the vertical structure of the 1st EOF is fairly well-captured by the traditional barotropic/1st baroclinic mode combination, which accounts for 91 % of its variance. We argue that such vertical structures may be associated with the type of instability experimented by the mean flow in each region. \"Charney-like\" or surface-intensified \"Phillips-like\" instabilities may rationalize the observed SQG-like vertical structures depicted at two moorings. Mid-depthintensified \"Phillips-like\" instabilities are consistent with a two QG mode representation at a third mooring. / Séries temporais correntográficas, observações hidrográficas quase-sinóticas e um modelo linear quase-geostrófico (QG) são combinados com o propósito de investigar as transformações no Sistema Corrente do Brasil (CB) ao largo da costa sudeste (22°S-28°S) e suas implicações. O conjunto de dados revela o espessamento vertical da CB, que ocupa os 350 m superiores da coluna de água em 22,7°S e atinge 800 m em 27,9°S. Parte significativa deste espessamento ocorre entre 25,5°S e 27,9°S, provavelmente relacionado à Bifurcação de Santos. Ao sul desta bifurcação, o transporte da CB é pelo menos 5 Sv superior. Ademais, a análise da energia cinética média na coluna de água (ECM) e sua partição entre componentes barotrópica e baroclínica revela que a Bifurcação de Santos está associada ao aumento significativo da componente barotrópica do Sistema CB. A ECM é, em média, 70% baroclínica ao norte da bifurcação, tornando-se 63% barotrópica ao sul desta. A análise da energia cinética turbulenta média na coluna de água (ECTM) corrobora o importante papel da atividade de mesoescala do Sistema CB ao largo do sudeste do Brasil: A ECTM é responsável por (30-60)% da ECM. O modelo de estabilidade linear prevê ondas com maiores taxas de crescimento [~(180-190) km] que se propagam para sudoeste entre 25,5°S-27,9°S. Em 22,7°S, as ondas mais instáveis (~230 km) crescem essencialmente sem propagação, consistente com as observações e também com informações presentes na literatura. A habilidade dos modos QG e das soluções QG superficiais (QGS) em representar a variabilidade subinercial no Atlântico Sudoeste também é investigada. Em dois fundeios, a estrutura vertical da 1ª função empírica ortogonal (FOE) apresenta um decaimento agudo. Este decaimento é consistente com soluções QGS, que contêm até 85% da variância da 1ª FOE. No entanto, estas soluções convergem para uma representação por quatro modos QG. Por outro lado, a estrutura vertical da 1ª FOE em um terceiro fundeio não apresenta tal decaimento marcante. Consequentemente, a 1ª FOE é bem representada pela tradicional combinação dos modos barotrópico/1o baroclínico. Argumentamos que estas estruturas podem estar associadas ao tipo de instabilidade experimentada pelo escoamento médio em cada região. Instabilidades tipo \"Charney\" ou \"Phillips\" (intensificadas em superfície) são consistentes com estruturas verticais tipo QGS presentes em dois fundeios. Instabilidades tipo \"Phillips\" (intensificadas em meia água) são consistentes com a representação por dois modos QG em um terceiro fundeio

In this thesis, parameterizations of non-linear interactions in quasigeostrophic (QG) flows for severely truncated models (STM) and Large Eddy Simulations (LES) are studied. Firstly, using Direct Numerical Simulations (DNS), atmospheric barotropic flows over topography are examined, and it is established that such flows exhibit multiple equilibrium states for a wide range of parameters. A STM is then constructed, consisting of the large scale zonal flow and a topographic mode. It is shown that, qualitatively, this system behaves similarly to the DNS as far as the interaction between the zonal flow and topography is concerned, and, in particular, exhibits multiple equilibrium states. By fitting the analytical form of the topographic stationary wave amplitude, obtained from the STM, to the results obtained from DNS, renormalized dissipation and rotation parameters are obtained. The usage of renormalized parameters in the STM results in better quantitative agreement with the DNS.¶ In the second type of problem, subgrid-scale parameterizations in LES are investigated with both atmospheric and oceanic parameters. This is in the context of two-level QG flows on the sphere, mostly, but not exclusively, employing a spherical harmonic triangular truncation at wavenumber 63 (T63) or higher. The methodology that is used is spectral, and is motivated by the stochastic representation of statistical closure theory, with the ‘damping’ and forcing covariance, representing backscatter, determined from the statistics of DNS. The damping and forcing covariance are formulated as 2 × 2 matrices for each wavenumber. As well as the transient subgrid tendency, the mean subgrid tendency is needed in the LES when the energy injection region is unresolved; this is also calculated from the statistics of the DNS. For comparison, a deterministic parameterization scheme consisting of 2×2 ‘damping’ parameters, which are calculated from the statistics of DNS, has been constructed. The main difference between atmospheric and oceanic flows, in this thesis, is that the atmospheric LES completely resolves the deformation scale, the energy and enstrophy injection region, and the truncation scale is spectrally distant from it, being well in the enstrophy cascade inertial range. In oceanic flows, however, the truncation scale is in the vicinity of the injection scale, at least for the parameters chosen, and is therefore not in an inertial range. A lower resolution oceanic LES at T15 is also examined, in which case the injection region is not resolved at all.¶ For atmospheric flows, it is found that, at T63, the matrix parameters are practically diagonal so that stratified atmospheric flows at these resolutions may be treated as uncoupled layers as far as subgrid-scale parameterizations are concerned. It is also found that the damping parameters are relatively independent of the (vertical) level, but the backscatter parameters are proportional to the subgrid flux in a given level. The stochastic and deterministic parameterization schemes give comparably good results relative to the DNS. For oceanic flows, it is found that the full matrix structure of the parameters must be used. Furthermore, it is found that there is a strong injection of barotropic energy from the subgrid scales, due to the unresolved, or partially resolved, baroclinic instability injection scales. It is found that the deterministic parameterization is too numerically unstable to be of use in the LES, and instead the stochastic parameterization must be used to obtain good agreement with the DNS. The subgrid tendency of the ensemble mean flow is also needed in some problems, and is found to reduce the available potential energy of the flow.

Die Dynamik der Atmosphäre der Erde umfasst einen Bereich von mikrophysikalischer Turbulenz über konvektive Prozesse und Wolkenbildung bis zu planetaren Wellenmustern. Für Wettervorhersage und zur Betrachtung des Klimas über Jahrzehnte und Jahrhunderte ist diese Gegenstand der Modellierung mit numerischen Verfahren. Mit voranschreitender Entwicklung der Rechentechnik sind Neuentwicklungen der dynamischen Kerne von Klimamodellen, die mit der feiner werdenden Auflösung auch entsprechende Prozesse auflösen können, notwendig. Der dynamische Kern eines Modells besteht in der Umsetzung (Diskretisierung) der grundlegenden dynamischen Gleichungen für die Entwicklung von Masse, Energie und Impuls, so dass sie mit Computern numerisch gelöst werden können. Die vorliegende Arbeit untersucht die Eignung eines unstetigen Galerkin-Verfahrens niedriger Ordnung für atmosphärische Anwendungen. Diese Eignung für Gleichungen mit Wirkungen von externen Kräften wie Erdanziehungskraft und Corioliskraft ist aus der Theorie nicht selbstverständlich. Es werden nötige Anpassungen beschrieben, die das Verfahren stabilisieren, ohne sogenannte „slope limiter” einzusetzen. Für das unmodifizierte Verfahren wird belegt, dass es nicht geeignet ist, atmosphärische Gleichgewichte stabil darzustellen. Das entwickelte stabilisierte Modell reproduziert eine Reihe von Standard-Testfällen der atmosphärischen Dynamik mit Euler- und Flachwassergleichungen in einem weiten Bereich von räumlichen und zeitlichen Skalen. Die Lösung der thermischen Windgleichung entlang der mit den Isobaren identischen charakteristischen Kurven liefert atmosphärische Gleichgewichtszustände mit durch vorgegebenem Grundstrom einstellbarer Neigung zu(barotropen und baroklinen)Instabilitäten, die für die Entwicklung von Zyklonen wesentlich sind. Im Gegensatz zu früheren Arbeiten sind diese Zustände direkt im z-System(Höhe in Metern)definiert und müssen nicht aus Druckkoordinaten übertragen werden.Mit diesen Zuständen, sowohl als Referenzzustand, von dem lediglich die Abweichungen numerisch betrachtet werden, und insbesondere auch als Startzustand, der einer kleinen Störung unterliegt, werden verschiedene Studien der Simulation von barotroper und barokliner Instabilität durchgeführt. Hervorzuheben ist dabei die durch die Formulierung von Grundströmen mit einstellbarer Baroklinität ermöglichte simulationsgestützte Studie des Grades der baroklinen Instabilität verschiedener Wellenlängen in Abhängigkeit von statischer Stabilität und vertikalem Windgradient als Entsprechung zu Stabilitätskarten aus theoretischen Betrachtungen in der Literatur. / The dynamics of the Earth’s atmosphere encompass a range from microphysical turbulence over convective processes and cloud formation up to planetary wave patterns. For weather forecasting and the investigation of climate over decades and centuries, these are subject to modelling with numerical methods. With progressing development of computer technology, re-development of the dynamical cores of climate models is in order to properly handle processes covered by the increasing resolution. The dynamical core of a model consists of the adaptation(discretization)of the basic equations for the dynamics of mass, energy and momentum for solving them numerically employing computers. The presented work investigates the applicability of a low-order Discontinuous Galerkin (DG) method for atmospheric applications. With equations that include external forces like gravitation and the Coriolis force, that is not given by theory. Necessary changes for stabilizing the method without resorting to slope limiters are presented. For the unmodified method, the basic inability to properly keep atmospheric balances is demonstrated. The developed stabilized model reproduces a set of standard test cases in a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. The solution of the termal wind equation along its characteristics curves, those being identical to the isobars, produces balanced atmospheric states with tunable (barotropic and baroclinic) instability via a prescribed zonal wind field. The constructed instability directly relates to the generation of cyclones. In contrast to earlier works, these balanced states are directly given in the z system (height in meters), without need for elaborate conversion from pressure coordinates. With these constructed states, both as reference state, the deviations from which being considered numerically, and as especially as initial condition subject to a small perturbation, several studies of barotropic and baroclinic instability are conducted via simulations. Particularily, the construction of steady states with configurable zonal flows of certain baroclinity facilitates a simulation-based study of baroclinic instability of differing wavelengths, depending on static stability and vertical wind gradient, in correspondence with stability maps from theoretical considerations in the literature.

O meandramento da Corrente do Brasil (CB) ao sul da Bifurcação de Santos é investigada por meio de imagens satelitárias, dados quase-sinóticos, análise de funções ortogonais empíricas (EOF) de correntômetros de fundeios e um modelo analítico semi-teórico. A análise das imagens satelitárias revelam que em média 1,2 meandros ciclônicos de grande amplitude são formados anualmente nas vizinhanças do Cabo de Santa Marta (∼28,5°S). Os meandros parecem ser geostroficamente instáveis e a taxa de crescimento típica estimada é de 0,05 m s-1 . Eles ainda se propagam para sul com velocidade de fase de 0,07 m s-1 . A seção de velocidade, como a inferida por perfis de L-ADCP obtidos durante cruzeiros hidrográficos, revelam que os meandros do Cabo de Santa Marta possuem estrutura de velocidade distinta daquelas observadas em Cabo Frio (23°S) e Cabo de São Tomé (22°S). Os meandros alcançam profundidades maiores que 1400 m e recirculam Água Tropical, Água Central do Atlântico Sul, Água Intermediária Antártica e Água Circumpolar Superior. Ocasionalmente, a estrutura do vórtice se funde com a camada subjacente da Corrente de Contorno Oeste Profunda. O padrão geostrófico horizontal dos meandros foram mapeados usando dados de temperatura e salinidade de cruzeiros históricos e foi obtido que a estrutura ciclônica do meandro possui número de Rossby (∼0,07) e número de Burger (∼0,06) pequenos. Portanto, vorticidade de estiramento parece ter papel importante na dinâmica de meandramento e, consequentemente, instabilidade baroclínica é o fenômeno primariamente responsável pelo crescimento do ciclone. O número de Burger pequeno também sugere que a dinâmica do meandro é influênciada pela topografia. A análise de EOFs bidimensionais conduzida no transecto WOCE 28°S de fundeios históricos dos anos 90 mostram que o primeiro modo seccional explica cerca de 54% da variância das séries e está relacionado ao meandramento da CB. A amplitude do meandro ciclônico é aproximadamente 200 km uma vez que cruza o transecto e a onda de vorticidade baroclínica associada tem tipicamente 26 dias. Finalmente, um modelo de Dinâmica de Contornos idealizado de 2 camadas é construído para isolar o mecanismo de instabilidade baroclínica e para investigar as razões do crescimento e velocidade de fase para sul. A estrutura do fluxo básico do modelo é construído baseado no ajuste por mínimos quadrados das funções teóricas à média das observações nas espessuras das camadas. A simulação mostrou que o meandro evolui e se desenvolve devido ao fechamento de fase da camada inferior mais lenta relativo à camada superior mais rápida. Além disso, a propagação de fase para sul ocorre como uma consequência direta da componente barotrópica robusta, adquirida pela CB devido o ramo sul da Bifurcação de Santos. / The Brazil Current (BC) meandering south of the so-called Antarctic Intemediate Water\'s Santos Bifurcation is investigated by means of satellite imagery, quasi-synoptic data, empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of currentmeter moorings and a semi-theoretical dynamical model. The analysis of the infrared imagery revealed that on average 1.2 large amplitude cyclonic meanders are formed annualy in the vicinities of Cape Santa Marta (∼28.5°S). The meanders seem to be geophysically unstable and the estimated typical growth rate is of 0.05 days-1 . They also propagate southward with phase speed of 0.07 m s-1 . The sectional velocity distributions, as inferred from L-ADCP profiles obtained during hydrographic cruises, revealed that the Cape Santa Marta meanders have a very distinct vertical structure from those observed off Cape Frio (23°S) and Cape São Tomé (22°S). The meanders reach much depths of 1400 m and recirculated Tropical Water, South Atlantic Central Water, Antarctic Intemediate Water and Upper Circumpolar Waters. Occasionally, the eddy structure melds with the underlying Deep Western Boundary Current. Geostrophic horizontal patterns of the meanders were mapped using T-S information from historical cruises and it is obtained that the meander is a low-Rossby number (∼0.07) and low-Burger(∼0.06) number cyclone feature. Therefore, stretching vorticity seems to play a major role on the meandering dynamics and, consequently, baroclinic instability is the phenomenon primairily responsible for the cyclone growth. The low-Burger number also suggests that the meander dynamics is influenced by the topography. The two-dimensional EOF analysis conducted on the historical 28°S WOCE mooring transect from the 90s shows that the first sectional mode explains about 54% of the series variance and is related to the BC meandering. The amplitude of the cyclonic meander is roughly 200 km as it crosses the transect and the associated baroclinic vorticity wave period is typically 26 days. Finally, an idealized 2-layer Contour Dynamics model is constructed to isolate the baroclinic instability mechanism and to investigate the reasons for the growth and the southward phase speeds. The model\'s basic flow structure is built based on least-square fits of the observations averaged within the two layer\'s vertical extensions. The simulation showed that the meander evolve and grow due to the phase-locking of the slower lower layer relative to the faster upper layer. Also, the southward phase speed occurs as a direct consequence of the robust barotropic component acquired by the BC due to the southern branch of the Santos Bifurcation of the Antarctic Intemediate Water.

This thesis describes a combined model and laboratory investigation of the generation and mutual interactions of fluid waves whose characteristic scales differ by an order of magnitude or more. The principal aims are to study how waves on one scale can generate waves on another, much shorter scale, and to examine the subsequent nonlinear feedback of the short waves on the long waves. The underlying motive is to better understand such interactions in rotating, stratified, planetary fluids such as atmospheres and oceans. The first part of the thesis describes a laboratory investigation using a rotating, two-layer annulus, forced by imposing a shear across the interface between the layers. A method is developed for making measurements of the two-dimensional interface height field which are very highly-resolved both in space and time. The system's linear normal modes fall into two distinct classes: 'slow' waves which are relatively long in wavelength and intrinsic period, and 'fast' waves which are much shorter and more quickly-evolving. Experiments are performed to categorize the flow at a wide range of points in the system's parameter space. At very small background rotation rates, the interface is completely devoid of waves of both types. At higher rates, fast modes only are generated, and are shown to be consistent with the Kelvin-Helmholtz instability mechanism based on a critical Richardson number. At rotation rates which are higher still, baroclinic instability gives rise to the onset of slow modes, with subsequent localized generation of fast modes superimposed in the troughs of the slow waves. In order to examine the generation mechanism of these coexisting fast modes, and to assess the extent of their impact upon the evolution of the slow modes, a quasi-geostrophic numerical model of the laboratory annulus is developed in the second part of the thesis. Fast modes are filtered out of the model by construction, as the phase space trajectory is confined to the slow manifold, but the slow wave dynamics is accurately captured. Model velocity fields are used to diagnose a number of fast wave radiation indicators. In contrast to the case of isolated fast waves, the Richardson number is a poor indicator of the generation of the coexisting fast waves that are observed in the laboratory, and so it is inferred that these are not Kelvin-Helmholtz waves. The best indicator is one associated with the spontaneous emission of inertia-gravity waves, a generalization of geostrophic adjustment radiation. A comparison is carried out between the equilibrated wavenumbers, phase speeds and amplitudes of slow waves in the laboratory (which coexist with fast modes), and slow waves in the model (which exist alone). There are significant differences between these wave properties, but it is shown that these discrepancies can be attributed to uncertainties in fluid properties, and to model approximations apart from the neglect of fast modes. The impact of the fast modes on the slow modes is therefore sufficiently small to evade illumination by this method of inquiry. As a stronger test of the interaction, a stochastic parameterization of the inertia-gravity waves is included in the model. Consistent with the laboratory/model intercomparison, the parameterized fast waves generally have only a small impact upon the slow waves. However, sufficiently close to a transition curve between two different slow modes in the system's parameter space, it is shown that the fast modes can exert a dominant influence. In particular, the fast modes can force spontaneous transitions from one slow mode to another, due to the phenomenon of stochastic resonance. This finding should be of interest to the meteorological and climate modelling communities, because of its potential to affect model reliability.

Um modelo numérico tridimensional foi adaptado para o estudo da circulação gerada pelo vento sobre a plataforma continental da Região Sul do Brasil durante o verão e o outono. O modelo oceânico de Princeton (POM) é usado em um domínio limitado com grade curvilínea de alta-resolução, além de linha de costa e batimetria realísticas. As forçantes são variáveis no tempo e incluem tensão de cisalhamento do vento, descarga fluvial, campos termohalinos e nível médio do mar. Os objetivos são simular a resposta da plataforma a estas forçantes, comparar os resultados do modelo com observações oceanográficas afim de estabelecer a confiança do modelo, e subseqüentemente analisar os campos resultantes para ajudar na compreensão do comportamento da circulação observada. As variáveis do modelo mostram boa concordância geral com as correspondentes observações. É encontrado um claro padrão sazonal da circulação gerada pelo vento sobre a plataforma, com fluxos de superfície para sul e para o largo durante o verão, resultando em ressurgência de águas frias de fundo, e para norte e para a costa durante o outono, resultando em subsidência de águas menos densas. Tal circulação aumenta a estabilidade vertical no verão, devido ao aquecimento de superfície e ressurgência de águas frias, e aumenta a mistura vertical e a homogeneidade vertical no outono, devido à subsidência de águas menos densas, a qual causa forte aceleração da pluma fluvial existente na plataforma interna. Os resultados também demonstram que os cabos e promontórios da Região Sul do Brasil desempenham papel fundamental na variabilidade ao longo da costa do fluxo de ressurgência, incluindo o estabelecimento de jatos costeiros baroclínicos, os quais tendem a se separar da costa ao sul de cabos, mostrando uma circulação tridimensional de ressurgência, com complexa dependência espaço-temporal. Durante o outono, o empilhamento de subsidência, somado à presença da pluma fluvial, estabelece uma corrente costeira barotrópica, chamada aqui de \'\'Corrente Costeira de Rio Grande\'\', causando a intrusão de águas frias a partir do sul para a plataforma continental brasileira. A avaliação dos campos de velocidade mostra que o transporte de Ekman pleno se desenvolve na região ao largo das frentes de ressurgência ou subsidência, deixando em direção à costa uma zona dominada por fricção, com estratificação e velocidades perpendiculares fracas. Esta região é denominada aqui de \'\'plataforma interna\'\' e se estende da costa até a isóbata de 30m no verão e até a isóbata de 45m no outono, com esta variação resultando de variações na profundidade da camada de Ekman. / A three-dimensional numerical model has been adapted for the study of the wind-driven flow on the continental shelf off southern Brazil during the summer and autumn seasons. The Princeton Ocean Model (POM) is used in a limited area domain with a high-resolution (eddy resolving) curvilinear grid, with realistic coastline and bottom topography. The forcings include time-varying wind stress, termohaline fields, fluvial discharges and mean sea level. The objectives of the study are to simulate the response of the shelf circulation to these forcings, to compare model results with oceanographic observations, to stablish the model confidence, and to subsequently analyse the model fields a contribution to understand the behavior of the observed flow. The model variables show overall good agreement with corresponding observations. It is found a clear seasonal pattern of wind-driven circulation over the shelf, with surface offshore and southward net flow during summertime, which results in bottom cold water upwelling, and onshore and northward net flow during autumntime, which results in less dense water downwelling. This circulation enhances vertical stability in summer, due to solar surface heating and cold water bottom upwelling, and enhances vertical mixing and unstratified conditions in autumn due to downwelling of less dense water, which causes strong downwind acceleration of river plume innershelf waters. The results also demonstrate that coastal capes and promontories play a dominant role in causing alongshore variability of the upwelling flow over southern Brazil, including the setup of alongshore coastal baroclinic jets, which tend to separate from the coast south of capes, showing a three-dimensional upwelling circulation, with complex time and space dependence. During autumntime, the downwelling wind setup, in addition to the river plume waters, set up a barotropic coastal current, named here \'\'Rio Grande Coastal Current\'\', causing the intrusion of southern colder water over the Brazilian shelf. The evaluation of velocity fields shows that full Ekman transport develops in the region offshore of the upwelling or downwelling fronts, leaving onshore a region dominated by friction with relatively weak stratification and cross-shore currents. This region is named here \'\'innershelf\'\' and extends seaward from the coast until the 30m isobath in summer and the 45m isobath in autumn, showing this seasonal variation due to Ekman layer depth variations.

Um modelo numérico tridimensional foi adaptado para o estudo da circulação gerada pelo vento sobre a plataforma continental da Região Sul do Brasil durante o verão e o outono. O modelo oceânico de Princeton (POM) é usado em um domínio limitado com grade curvilínea de alta-resolução, além de linha de costa e batimetria realísticas. As forçantes são variáveis no tempo e incluem tensão de cisalhamento do vento, descarga fluvial, campos termohalinos e nível médio do mar. Os objetivos são simular a resposta da plataforma a estas forçantes, comparar os resultados do modelo com observações oceanográficas afim de estabelecer a confiança do modelo, e subseqüentemente analisar os campos resultantes para ajudar na compreensão do comportamento da circulação observada. As variáveis do modelo mostram boa concordância geral com as correspondentes observações. É encontrado um claro padrão sazonal da circulação gerada pelo vento sobre a plataforma, com fluxos de superfície para sul e para o largo durante o verão, resultando em ressurgência de águas frias de fundo, e para norte e para a costa durante o outono, resultando em subsidência de águas menos densas. Tal circulação aumenta a estabilidade vertical no verão, devido ao aquecimento de superfície e ressurgência de águas frias, e aumenta a mistura vertical e a homogeneidade vertical no outono, devido à subsidência de águas menos densas, a qual causa forte aceleração da pluma fluvial existente na plataforma interna. Os resultados também demonstram que os cabos e promontórios da Região Sul do Brasil desempenham papel fundamental na variabilidade ao longo da costa do fluxo de ressurgência, incluindo o estabelecimento de jatos costeiros baroclínicos, os quais tendem a se separar da costa ao sul de cabos, mostrando uma circulação tridimensional de ressurgência, com complexa dependência espaço-temporal. Durante o outono, o empilhamento de subsidência, somado à presença da pluma fluvial, estabelece uma corrente costeira barotrópica, chamada aqui de \'\'Corrente Costeira de Rio Grande\'\', causando a intrusão de águas frias a partir do sul para a plataforma continental brasileira. A avaliação dos campos de velocidade mostra que o transporte de Ekman pleno se desenvolve na região ao largo das frentes de ressurgência ou subsidência, deixando em direção à costa uma zona dominada por fricção, com estratificação e velocidades perpendiculares fracas. Esta região é denominada aqui de \'\'plataforma interna\'\' e se estende da costa até a isóbata de 30m no verão e até a isóbata de 45m no outono, com esta variação resultando de variações na profundidade da camada de Ekman. / A three-dimensional numerical model has been adapted for the study of the wind-driven flow on the continental shelf off southern Brazil during the summer and autumn seasons. The Princeton Ocean Model (POM) is used in a limited area domain with a high-resolution (eddy resolving) curvilinear grid, with realistic coastline and bottom topography. The forcings include time-varying wind stress, termohaline fields, fluvial discharges and mean sea level. The objectives of the study are to simulate the response of the shelf circulation to these forcings, to compare model results with oceanographic observations, to stablish the model confidence, and to subsequently analyse the model fields a contribution to understand the behavior of the observed flow. The model variables show overall good agreement with corresponding observations. It is found a clear seasonal pattern of wind-driven circulation over the shelf, with surface offshore and southward net flow during summertime, which results in bottom cold water upwelling, and onshore and northward net flow during autumntime, which results in less dense water downwelling. This circulation enhances vertical stability in summer, due to solar surface heating and cold water bottom upwelling, and enhances vertical mixing and unstratified conditions in autumn due to downwelling of less dense water, which causes strong downwind acceleration of river plume innershelf waters. The results also demonstrate that coastal capes and promontories play a dominant role in causing alongshore variability of the upwelling flow over southern Brazil, including the setup of alongshore coastal baroclinic jets, which tend to separate from the coast south of capes, showing a three-dimensional upwelling circulation, with complex time and space dependence. During autumntime, the downwelling wind setup, in addition to the river plume waters, set up a barotropic coastal current, named here \'\'Rio Grande Coastal Current\'\', causing the intrusion of southern colder water over the Brazilian shelf. The evaluation of velocity fields shows that full Ekman transport develops in the region offshore of the upwelling or downwelling fronts, leaving onshore a region dominated by friction with relatively weak stratification and cross-shore currents. This region is named here \'\'innershelf\'\' and extends seaward from the coast until the 30m isobath in summer and the 45m isobath in autumn, showing this seasonal variation due to Ekman layer depth variations.

Μελετάται αριθμητικά η υδροδυναμική κυκλοφορία του Πατραϊκού κόλπου. Σκοπό αποτελεί η κατανόηση της τρισδιάστατης δομής της ροής που προκαλείται υπό διάφορες φυσικές φορτίσεις, δηλαδή τον άνεμο, την παλίρροια και τη στρωμάτωση. Η αριθμητική προσομοίωση γίνεται με τον τρισδιάστατο αριθμητικό κώδικας πεπερασμένων όγκων MIKE 3 FM (HD,TR). Η ανεμογενής κυκλοφορία, κατά τους χειμερινούς μήνες οπότε ο κόλπος σύμφωνα με μετρήσεις είναι ομογενής, παρουσιάζει στοιχεία ροής μεγάλης κλίμακας, με επιρροή από τη δύναμη Coriolis, ανάπτυξη στρώματος Ekman και ισχυρά ρεύματα επιστροφής, λίγα μέτρα κάτω από την ελεύθερη επιφάνεια. Ταυτόχρονα, σε περιοχές όπως η θέση του στενού Ρίου-Αντιρρίου η ροή συμπεριφέρεται περισσότερο ως υδραυλική ροή με ταπείνωση της ελεύθερης επιφάνειας και κατακόρυφο προφίλ ταχύτητας, όμοιο με της τυρβώδους ροής Couette. Στην οριζόντια διεύθυνση, η ροή παρουσιάζει έντονα παράκτια ρεύματα και κλίση της ελεύθερης επιφάνειας. Εκτιμάται ότι ο χρόνος ανανέωσης των υδάτων για τον κόλπο θα κυμαίνεται από ένα μήνα έως μία εβδομάδα, ανάλογα με την ένταση του ανέμου. Φαίνεται ότι στα βαθύτερα στρώματα του Πατραϊκού η ανεμογενής ροή δεν επιδρά σημαντικά στην ανανέωση των υδάτων, τα οποία παραμένουν εγκλωβισμένα και επανακυκλοφορούν μεταξύ των δύο εγκάρσιων ραχών που οριοθετούν την λεκάνη του. Τα παλιρροϊκά ρεύματα, τα οποία είναι σημαντικά στον Πατραϊκό, καθορίζουν την κυκλοφορία των υδάτων στο κύριο σώμα του κόλπου και στο στενό Ρίου-Αντιρρίου, ενώ η ανεμογενής ροή είναι καθοριστική κοντά στις ακτές. Η συνδυασμένη δράση ανέμου και παλίρροιας προκαλεί κυκλωνικούς και αντικυκλωνικούς στροβίλους, πλησίον των βορείων και νοτίων ακτών του Πατραϊκού, η φορά των οποίων υπαγορεύεται αποκλειστικά από τα ισχυρά ανεμογενή παράκτια ρεύματα. Η μελέτη της καλοκαιρινής κυκλοφορίας αναδεικνύει σημαντικές διαφορές, σε σύγκριση με την χειμερινή κυκλοφορία των υδάτων στον Πατραϊκό κόλπο. Τα ανεμογενή ρεύματα είναι αμελητέα από τη ζώνη του θερμοκλινούς και κάτω, για τη μέση ένταση ανέμου, ενώ η ένταση της τύρβης περιορίζεται στο επιλίμνιο. Την καλοκαιρινή περίοδο η δράση νοτιοδυτικού ανέμου συνδέεται με την παρουσία αναβλύσεων στις βορειοδυτικές ακτές του όρμου της Ναυπάκτου και στο μέτωπο της λιμνοθάλασσας του Μεσολογγίου. Αναβλύσεις εντοπίζονται και νοτιοδυτικά του Ρίου, μπροστά από την πόλη των Πατρών, για βορειοανατολικούς ανέμους. Στο στενό Ρίου-Αντιρρίου η δράση του ανέμου, αλλά και η παλίρροια οδηγούν στη γένεση εσωτερικών κυμάτων τα οποία προκαλούν κατακόρυφη κυκλοφορία. Κύριο χαρακτηριστικό της κυκλοφορίας των υδάτων στον Πατραϊκό, την καλοκαιρινή περίοδο, είναι ο ισχυρός κυκλωνικός στρόβιλος που παρατηρείται στο κέντρο του κόλπου αναγκάζοντας τα ύδατα σε περιστροφική κίνηση. Με βάση τις αριθμητικές προσομοιώσεις η ύπαρξη ισχυρού κυκλωνικού στροβίλου συνδέεται αποκλειστικά με την παρουσία βορειοανατολικού ανέμου και συγκεκριμένα στη φάση της πλημμυρίδας. Τέλος, με βάση τις αριθμητικές προσομοιώσεις υπολογίζεται το τρισδιάστατο πεδίο ρευμάτων στην ευρύτερη περιοχή του παλαιού και νέου λιμένα Πατρών, καθώς και η διάχυση και μεταφορά των επεξεργασμένων λυμάτων από τον αγωγό της ΔΕΥΑΠ. / The hydrodynamic circulation in the Gulf of Patras, in Western Greece, is studied using three-dimensional numerical simulations. The simulations are performed using the three-dimensional modeling system MIKE 3 FM (HD/TR). The wind-induced circulation is examined in the natural basin of the Gulf of Patras, in which batotropic flow develops, according to field measurements, during the winter months. The simulations show that the wind-induced flow creates strong currents near the coasts, which determine the sense of rotation of the gyres that develop in the Gulf. Strong currents are also created at the Rio-Antirio straits. The wind-induced, barotropic currents do not seem to contribute to the renewal of bottom waters, which recirculate between the two sills. Depending on the speed of the wind forcing the flow, the residence time of the waters in the Gulf of Patras is estimated to range from one month to one week. The tide-induced circulation is important in the Gulf of Patras. Strong, tidal currents have been simulated to develop at the straits of Rio-Antirrio and in the main body of the Gulf, with cyclonic and anticyclonic eddies developing at the northern and southern coasts, respectively. When there is also wind blowing, nearshore gyres develop, the sense of rotation of which is by the wind direction, while in the central part of the Gulf the flow pattern is dictated by the tidal action. Further, the baroclinic wind and tide-induced circulation are studied to investigate the effect of stratification on the structure of the flow. During the summer period the wind-induced flow and the wind generated turbulence driven by winds of medium strength are restricted to the upper layer of the epilimnion, while the strong winds cause tilt and erosion of the thermocline in the central part of the Gulf and generation of internal waves at the straits of Rio-Antirio. Salient features of the summer circulation are the strong upwellings and the central cyclonic gyre which are predicted using numerical simulations. Upwellings occur along the northwesterly portion of the Nafpaktos bay coasts at the westerly part of the Gulf of Corinth, under southwesterly wind, and to the south of Rio cape at the front of the city of Patras, under northeasterly wind. Concerning with the central cyclonic eddy, according to numerical simulations it develops exclusively during the flood tide under the simultaneous action of northeasterly winds. The numerical predictions were validated against satellite images of the surface temperature field determined by NOAA-6 and NOAA-7 which closely confirm the simulation results. Finally, the simulated barotropic and baroclinic flow fields are applied to the calculation of the currents near the port of Patras and to the advection and diffusion of the treated sewage effluents disposed of near the southeasterly coast of the Gulf, near the city of Patras.

The thermally-driven rotating annulus is a laboratory experiment used to study the dynamics of planetary atmospheres under controlled and reproducible conditions. The predictability of this experiment is studied by applying the same principles used to predict the atmosphere. A forecasting system for the annulus is built using the analysis correction method for data assimilation and the breeding method for ensemble generation. The results show that a range of flow regimes with varying complexity can be accurately assimilated, predicted, and studied in this experiment. This framework is also intended to demonstrate a proof-of-concept: that the annulus could be used as a testbed for meteorological techniques under laboratory conditions. First, a regime diagram is created using numerical simulations in order to select points in parameter space to forecast, and a new chaotic flow regime is discovered within it. The two components of the framework are then used as standalone algorithms to measure predictability in the perfect model scenario and to demonstrate data assimilation. With a perfect model, regular flow regimes are found to be predictable until the end of the forecasts, and chaotic regimes are predictable over hundreds of seconds. There is a difference in the way predictability is lost between low-order chaotic regimes and high-order chaos. Analysis correction is shown to be accurate in both regular and chaotic regimes, with residual velocity errors about 3-8 times the observational error. Specific assimilation scenarios studied include information propagation from data-rich to data-poor areas, assimilation of vortex shedding observations, and assimilation over regime and rotation rate transitions. The full framework is used to predict regular and chaotic flow, verifying the forecasts against laboratory data. The steady wave forecasts perform well, and are predictable until the end of the available data. The amplitude and structural vacillation forecasts lose quality and skill by a combination of wave drift and wavenumber transition. Amplitude vacillation is predictable up to several hundred seconds ahead, and structural vacillation is predictable for a few hundred seconds.