The aim of this study is to micro-forecast kinship structure from 2017 to the first of January 2041 by using Statistic Sweden’s forecasted mortality rates. The subject of study is the Iranian population of the birth cohort 1965-1975 who have lived in Sweden 2017 and their kin and compare it with a Swedish background sample. The data has been taken from the Swedish population registry and the mortality rates have been taken from Statistic Sweden to forecast the future population. The results show that there is a difference between the Iranian population and the Swedish background sample in regards to availability of kinship in Sweden. The kinship availability persists from ever registered in the administrative registry to the end of the microsimulation in the year 2041. Furthermore, the differences in the most vulnerable group who does not have any partner, children or siblings to rely on are larger in the Iranian population. This is the first study to count kinship ties of a migrant group and compare it with a Swedish reference sample in the future by combining microsimulation modelling and the Swedish population registry. Keywords microsimulation, forecast, kinship, immigrants, Iranians, Sweden

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Abstract  Nowadays we travel much more than we did before, this is mainly due to how easy it has become to get to different places. Traveling took a break during the corona pandemic but  has now recovered a lot. Among these means of transport, we have cruise ships that are becoming increasingly common due to greater demand. The result of this is leading to more and larger ships with more passengers. Today, there are evacuation theories and analyzes on how an evacuation should be carried out to save as many lives as possible. However, these theories lack spatial communication to passengers which can have devastating consequences.The work is for the completion of a bachelor's degree in information design with a focus on spatial design. The purpose of the study was to study how the room can support an existing evacuation plan and how an evacuation system can be developed to lead people away from danger. The purpose is also about human spatial needs and how space can be developed to facilitate an evacuation.This was carried out in collaboration with Tallink Silja Line, which is the Baltic Sea's largest shipping company with its head office in Stockholm. Tallink works actively to improve safety on board its vessels. In order to get a clear picture of the problems and the passengers' needs, site analyzes, interviews, questionnaires & behavioral mappings have been carried out. These methods are then combined with theories of visual communication and crowd management to develop a design proposal that orients passengers when evacuating fire on cruise ships.Using theories from information design and human behavior, a wayshowing system has been built in order to increase the orientability of cruise ships. The system is built after site analysis on a specific ship but aims to work in a larger context.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-06-02T20:12:14Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 2672.pdf: 1004312 bytes, checksum: 4a6dc911499177ae0a905ad3c959d44a (MD5) Previous issue date: 2008-12-19 / Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais / B. F. Skinner describes and explains the human behavior through the causal model of selection by consequences. According to this model, the human behavior is the product of the interaction among three levels of variability and selection (phylogeny, ontogeny and culture). According to this explanation, the cultural contingencies enable the rising and maintenance of behaviors that may produce consequences which strengthen a culture and these are the behaviors which participate as operant behaviors in the constituting of a cultural practice. The Man is a product of three processes of variation and selection. Within this, especially due to the third level, he is a Man that may also plan new variations which may perform a role on the strengthening of a culture and therefore he must plan contingencies so that the behavior produces the good of the culture. The cultural planning directed to the survival of the culture elicits questionings on the Behavioral Technology proposed to enable the insertion of new cultural practices. Thus, this study had the objective of investigating if the conception of Man in Radical Behaviorism in Skinner s works, interpreted as a commitment with the good of the culture, is consistent with the proposal of this author of a Behavioral Technology. Aspects of Science and Ethics based on the Philosophy of Radical Behaviorism have been investigated. Moreover, some examples of behavioral technology based on this philosophy have illustrated our analyses in the defense of a technology which produce consequences which may strengthen a culture. Using methods of text analyses and of epistemological-hermeneutic, texts from the author previously selected which refer to the concepts of Man, culture, science, ethics and technology have been analyzed in order to identify the inconsistencies, clarify or explain the conception of Man and Behavioral Technology proposed by the model of selection by consequences of the Skinner s Radical Behaviorism. / B. F. Skinner descreve e explica o comportamento humano por meio do modelo causal de seleção pelas consequências. Segundo esse modelo, o comportamento humano é o produto da interação entre três níveis de variação e seleção (filogênese, ontogênese e cultura). De acordo com essa explicação, as contingências culturais possibilitam a emergência e a manutenção de comportamentos que podem produzir consequências que fortaleçam uma cultura, são os comportamentos que participam como operantes constituintes de uma prática cultural. O Homem é o produto dos três processos de variação e seleção. Dentro disso, em função principalmente do terceiro nível, é um Homem que pode também planejar novas variações que possam ter um papel sobre o fortalecimento da cultura e, sendo assim, deve planejar contingências para que o comportamento produza o bem da cultura. O planejamento cultural direcionado para a sobrevivência da cultura elucida questionamentos acerca da Tecnologia Comportamental proposta para viabilizar a inserção de novas práticas culturais. Assim, este estudo teve o objetivo de investigar se a concepção de Homem no Behaviorismo Radical de Skinner, interpretada como um compromisso com o bem da cultura, é consistente com a proposta desse autor de uma Tecnologia do Comportamento. Aspectos da ciência e da ética baseados na filosofia do Behaviorismo Radical foram investigados. Além disso, alguns exemplos de tecnologia do comportamento fundamentados nessa filosofia ilustraram nossa análise na defesa de uma tecnologia que produza consequências que possam fortalecer uma cultura. Utilizando-se dos métodos de análise de texto e epistemológico-hermenêutico, textos do autor previamente selecionados que fizeram referência aos conceitos de Homem, cultura, ciência, ética e tecnologia foram analisados para indicar as incongruências, esclarecimentos ou explicações entre a concepção de Homem e a Tecnologia Comportamental proposta pelo modelo de seleção pelas conseqüências do Behaviorismo Radical de Skinner

Engineering designers commonly make sequential information acquisition decisions such as selecting designs for performance evaluation, selecting information sources, deciding whom to communicate with in design teams, and deciding when to stop design exploration. There is significant literature on normative decision making for engineering design, however, there is a lack of descriptive modeling of how designers actually make information acquisition decisions. Such descriptive modeling is important for accurately modeling design decisions, identifying sources of inefficiencies, and improving the design process. To that end, the research objective of the dissertation is to understand how designers make sequential information acquisition decisions and identify models that provide the best description of a designer’s decisions strategies. For gaining this understanding, the research approach consists of a synthesis of descriptive theories from psychological and cognitive sciences, along with empirical evidence from behavioral experiments under different design situations. Statistical Bayesian inference is used to determine how well alternate descriptive decision models describe the experimental data. This approach quantifies a designer's decision strategies through posterior parameter estimation and Bayesian model comparison. <br><br>Two research studies, presented in this dissertation, focus on assessing the effects of monetary incentives, fixed budget, type of design space exploration, and the availability of system-wide information on information acquisition decisions. The first study presented in this dissertation investigates information acquisition by an individual designer when multiple information sources are available and the total budget is limited. The results suggest that the student subjects' decisions are better represented by the heuristic-based models than the expected utility(EU)-based models. <br>While the EU-based models result in better net payoff, the heuristic models used by the subjects generate better design performance. The results also indicate the potential for nudging designers' decisions towards maximizing the net payoff by setting the fixed budget at low values and providing monetary incentives proportional to the saved budget.<br><br>The second study investigates information acquisition through communication. The focus is on designers’ decisions about whom to communicate with, and how much to communicate when there is interdependence between subsystems being designed. This study analyzes team communication of NASA engineers at a mission design laboratory (MDL) as well as of engineering students designing a simplified automotive engine in an undergraduate classroom environment. The results indicate that the rate of interactions increases in response to the reduce in system-level design performance in both settings. Additionally, the following factors seem to positively influence communication decisions: the pairwise design interdependence, node-wise popularity (significant with NASA MDL engineers due to large team size), and pairwise reciprocity.<br><br>The dissertation work increases the knowledge about engineering design decision making in following aspects. First, individuals make information acquisition decisions using simple heuristics based on in-situ information such as available budget amount and present system performance.<br>The proposed multi-discipline approach proves helpful for describing heuristics analytically and inferring context-specific decision strategies using statistical Bayesian inference. This work has potential application in developing decision support tools for engineering design. Second, the comparison of communication patterns between student design teams and NASA MDL teams reveals that the engine experiment preserves some but not all of the communication patterns of interest. We find that the representativeness depends not on matching subjects, tasks, and context separately, but rather on the behavior that results from the interactions of these three dimensions. This work provides lessons for designing representative experiments in the future.