ABSTRACT Santa Barbara Tea Fire Multi-Hazard Mitigation Benefit Cost Analysis David S Flamm This study examines the benefits and costs associated with the outright purchase of properties for hazard mitigation (“property acquisition mitigation”) in Santa Barbara, California which reduced four properties’ exposure to multiple hazards. The results indicate that the estimated overall benefit-cost ratio for property acquisition mitigation projects is 1.75:1 when the exposed properties meet a threshold of eminent threat for total loss. This study further suggests that when property acquisitions are performed in an area threatened by multiple hazards the mitigation becomes two to three times more beneficial than in an area threatened by a single hazard. Possible implications and future benefits associated with this mitigation and mitigations like this are also explored. Multi-hazard mitigation is an action taken to reduce or eliminate long-term risks from natural or human-caused hazards. A hazard is any condition or event with the potential to cause fatalities, injuries, property damage, infrastructure damage, economic interruptions, environmental damage, or other loss. The study area for the Tea Fire BCA (Benefit Cost Analysis) is subject to multiple hazards, primarily landslides, wildfires, and earthquakes. In an attempt to reduce the exposure to landslides a mitigation project was completed in 1998. This project included purchase of four properties by the City of Santa Barbara using federal and local funds. The undeveloped properties were left empty as open space to eliminate the exposure to risk. The project, originally intended to mitigate landslide risk, mitigated risk exposure to multiple hazards. The mitigation was put to the test during the Santa Barbara Tea Fire, a wildfire which burned approximately 2,000 acres of Santa Barbara County land in November, 2008. The following steps were followed to determine the overall loss avoidance: 1. Obtain building values before mitigation 2. Obtain current comparable building values 3. Determine burn recurrence in study area 4. Obtain fire damage estimates from FEMA BCA tool based on “before mitigation” building and contents values 5. Calculate “loss avoidance” and adjust for inflation using FEMA BCA tool 6. Add additional avoided losses not considered in BCA (e.g., emergency management costs) 7. Subtract new losses resulting from the project 8. Determine multi-hazard recurrence in study area Keywords: Hazard Mitigation, Benefit Cost Analysis, Loss Avoidance.

A modeling framework to evaluate the costs and benefits of implementation of Controller Pilot Data Link Communication (CPDLC), and Air Traffic Management (ATM) decision support tools is proposed in this paper. The benefit/cost evaluation is carried out for four key alternatives namely alternative A: Do nothing scenario (only voice channel), alternative B: Voice channel supplemented with CPDLC, alternative C: Alternative B with ATM tools in a non-integrated scenario and finally alternative D: Alternative B with ATM tools in an integrated scenario. It is a bi-level model that captures the linkages between various technologies at a lower microscopic level using a daily microscopic model (DATSIM) and transfers the measures of effectives to a higher macroscopic level. DATSIM stands for Data Link and Air Traffic Technologies SIMulation and it simulates air traffic in the enroute sector and terminal airspace for a single day and captures the measures of effectiveness at a microscopic level and feeds its output to the macroscopic annual model which then runs over the entire life cycle of the system. Airspace dwell time benefit data from the microscopic model is regressed into three dimensional benefit surfaces as a function of the equipage level of aircraft and aircraft density and embedded into the macroscopic model. The main function of the annual model is to ascertain economic viability of any deployment schedule or alternative over the entire life cycle of the system. The life cycle cost model is composed of four modules namely: Operational benefits module, Safety benefit module,Technology cost module and Training cost module. Analysis using the model showed that an enroute sector gets congested at aircraft densities greater 630 per day. This is mainly because the controller workload gets saturated at that traffic volume per day. Benefits realized in alternatives B, C and D as compared to alternative A increased exponentially at traffic densities greater than 630 i.e. when controller workload for alternative A becomes saturated. / Master of Science

Due to the serious impact wind damage has on homes in the Gulf Coast region, policy makers, community developers, and homeowners are seeking ways to lessen impacts. One potential tool to increase properties’ resiliency in the event of a periodic and catastrophic event is wind mitigation, the process of adding features to a building, i.e. a house, to increase the strength of the structure amid a storm such as a hurricane. In this research, I evaluate the tiers of FORTIFIED homes as the mitigation strategies. I use Zillow ZTRAX and Institute of Business and Home Safety data to estimate how each level of FORTIFIED home designation affects property value. The results show FORTIFIED Gold designation on a new home has a 0%-8.4% increase on property value. I place my finding into a BCA of FORTIFIED designation to evaluate how this one benefit fits into the greater picture.

Road user costs (RUCs) quantify the inconveniences to road users resulting from ongoing construction projects. Although the concept of RUC has traditionally been associated with the life cycle cost analysis, its importance has increased in alternative contracting methods in recent years. Despite its importance, the Tennessee Department of Transportation (TDOT) currently lacks a systematic methodology to compute RUCs. With the increased use of alternative contracting such as A+B, TDOT can benefit significantly if a systematic methodology and a tool are developed to compute RUCs in-house. The main goal of this study is to develop a framework and accompanying tool to compute RUCs, which balances the ease of computing and accuracy of results. To achieve this goal, the study reviewed existing literature on the topic, conducted a nationwide survey, and identified the current best practices of calculating and utilizing RUCs. The study found that more than half of the state Departments of Transportation (DOTs) that responded to the questionnaire have developed their state-specific methodologies to compute RUCs. The delay costs and the vehicle operating costs are the two most common components computed by a majority of state DOTs. Based on the findings of the study, a framework to compute RUCs is developed to enable TDOT to quickly compute RUCs more efficiently. Subsequently, a spreadsheet based TDOT RUC Calculation Tool (TRCT) is developed to implement the framework. The tool can compute four components of the RUC: a) delay cost, b) vehicle operating cost, c) crash cost, and d) emission cost. Relevant standard datasets such as median household income and emission rates were collected and/or produced for the tool. The tool automatically accounts for the spatiotemporal variation in the RUCs using Consumer Price Index (CPI) and county-specific data. The computed RUCs can be used for A+B contracting, benefit-cost analysis, liquidated damage computation, and early-completion-incentive computation.

The management of natural resources located on private lands often involves a perceived conflict between the mix of private and public benefit outputs they produce. Governments have tended to respond through legislation to restrict and redirect private decisions about resource management. However, the legislative response faces a lack of information about the costs and benefits of alternative management and policy instruments. A pertinent example of this debate is the management of wetlands on private lands. The goal in this thesis is to advance the design of policy relating to the production of environmental outputs on private lands. This goal is achieved by first estimating the welfare impacts of alternative private land management strategies on the wider community. These estimates are used as inputs into the development of alternative policy instruments that are then evaluated in terms of their potential cost-effectiveness in influencing private management. Two case studies of wetland management on private land in Australia are presented ??? the Upper South East Region of South Australia, and, the Murrumbidgee River Floodplain in New South Wales. The conceptual approach described in the first part of the thesis includes a description of the resource management problem and the strengths and weaknesses of the alternative decision frameworks widely employed in Australia. Identification of the cause and nature of transaction costs in the management process is the focus in this discussion. The welfare impacts of alternative wetland management strategies are investigated through the construction of a bio-economic model for each of the case study areas. The approach integrates biophysical analysis of changing wetland management with the value society places on wetlands. Outputs from this process are used in the development of a range of policy instruments directed towards influencing wetland management. The impact of poorly quantified and uncertain transaction costs on the potential cost-effectiveness of these options is evaluated using threshold policy analysis. The empirical results show that the perception of a conflict between the private and public values generated by resource management is accurate. For example, scenarios changing wetland management in the Upper South East of South Australia on the Murrumbidgee River floodplain in New South Wales were shown to generate net benefits of $5.2m and $5.1m respectively. Hence, changing wetland management could generate increased community welfare. The potential for these findings to be translated into wetland policy is less conclusive. Policies directed towards wetland management (in part or in whole) incur a range of transaction costs and deliver differential wetland protection benefits. Ten ???best bet??? policies are identified, but more information is required to determine conclusively whether a net benefit results to the wider community when transaction costs are included.

During the evaluation of the seismic retrofitting option for risk reduction/mitigation measures to be applied over buildings, Benefit Cost Analysis is an often-used method. During this study of Benefit Cost Analysis, the condition that the earthquake can happen just after or sometime after retrofitting will be taken into consideration rather than some approaches that focus on the benefits and costs regarding the annual probability of the occurrence for possible earthquakes. The analysis will use conditional probability such that the earthquake will be assumed to occur at different periods of time (5, 10, 20 years etc.) after the mitigation measures are taken so that benefit-cost ratios and net social benefits can be observed over time using the results at these periods. Also during this study the indirect effects of earthquake such as business disruption, social disturbance will also be taken into consideration. As a final step, it is aimed to conclude with convincing financial results regarding the direct and indirect effects of the earthquake in terms of benefits and costs to encourage people and the public officials to reduce the potential vulnerability of the housing units people live by taking the necessary precautions against the earthquake.

The management of natural resources located on private lands often involves a perceived conflict between the mix of private and public benefit outputs they produce. Governments have tended to respond through legislation to restrict and redirect private decisions about resource management. However, the legislative response faces a lack of information about the costs and benefits of alternative management and policy instruments. A pertinent example of this debate is the management of wetlands on private lands. The goal in this thesis is to advance the design of policy relating to the production of environmental outputs on private lands. This goal is achieved by first estimating the welfare impacts of alternative private land management strategies on the wider community. These estimates are used as inputs into the development of alternative policy instruments that are then evaluated in terms of their potential cost-effectiveness in influencing private management. Two case studies of wetland management on private land in Australia are presented ??? the Upper South East Region of South Australia, and, the Murrumbidgee River Floodplain in New South Wales. The conceptual approach described in the first part of the thesis includes a description of the resource management problem and the strengths and weaknesses of the alternative decision frameworks widely employed in Australia. Identification of the cause and nature of transaction costs in the management process is the focus in this discussion. The welfare impacts of alternative wetland management strategies are investigated through the construction of a bio-economic model for each of the case study areas. The approach integrates biophysical analysis of changing wetland management with the value society places on wetlands. Outputs from this process are used in the development of a range of policy instruments directed towards influencing wetland management. The impact of poorly quantified and uncertain transaction costs on the potential cost-effectiveness of these options is evaluated using threshold policy analysis. The empirical results show that the perception of a conflict between the private and public values generated by resource management is accurate. For example, scenarios changing wetland management in the Upper South East of South Australia on the Murrumbidgee River floodplain in New South Wales were shown to generate net benefits of $5.2m and $5.1m respectively. Hence, changing wetland management could generate increased community welfare. The potential for these findings to be translated into wetland policy is less conclusive. Policies directed towards wetland management (in part or in whole) incur a range of transaction costs and deliver differential wetland protection benefits. Ten ???best bet??? policies are identified, but more information is required to determine conclusively whether a net benefit results to the wider community when transaction costs are included.

The management of natural resources located on private lands often involves a perceived conflict between the mix of private and public benefit outputs they produce. Governments have tended to respond through legislation to restrict and redirect private decisions about resource management. However, the legislative response faces a lack of information about the costs and benefits of alternative management and policy instruments. A pertinent example of this debate is the management of wetlands on private lands. The goal in this thesis is to advance the design of policy relating to the production of environmental outputs on private lands. This goal is achieved by first estimating the welfare impacts of alternative private land management strategies on the wider community. These estimates are used as inputs into the development of alternative policy instruments that are then evaluated in terms of their potential cost-effectiveness in influencing private management. Two case studies of wetland management on private land in Australia are presented ??? the Upper South East Region of South Australia, and, the Murrumbidgee River Floodplain in New South Wales. The conceptual approach described in the first part of the thesis includes a description of the resource management problem and the strengths and weaknesses of the alternative decision frameworks widely employed in Australia. Identification of the cause and nature of transaction costs in the management process is the focus in this discussion. The welfare impacts of alternative wetland management strategies are investigated through the construction of a bio-economic model for each of the case study areas. The approach integrates biophysical analysis of changing wetland management with the value society places on wetlands. Outputs from this process are used in the development of a range of policy instruments directed towards influencing wetland management. The impact of poorly quantified and uncertain transaction costs on the potential cost-effectiveness of these options is evaluated using threshold policy analysis. The empirical results show that the perception of a conflict between the private and public values generated by resource management is accurate. For example, scenarios changing wetland management in the Upper South East of South Australia on the Murrumbidgee River floodplain in New South Wales were shown to generate net benefits of $5.2m and $5.1m respectively. Hence, changing wetland management could generate increased community welfare. The potential for these findings to be translated into wetland policy is less conclusive. Policies directed towards wetland management (in part or in whole) incur a range of transaction costs and deliver differential wetland protection benefits. Ten ???best bet??? policies are identified, but more information is required to determine conclusively whether a net benefit results to the wider community when transaction costs are included.

The management of natural resources located on private lands often involves a perceived conflict between the mix of private and public benefit outputs they produce. Governments have tended to respond through legislation to restrict and redirect private decisions about resource management. However, the legislative response faces a lack of information about the costs and benefits of alternative management and policy instruments. A pertinent example of this debate is the management of wetlands on private lands. The goal in this thesis is to advance the design of policy relating to the production of environmental outputs on private lands. This goal is achieved by first estimating the welfare impacts of alternative private land management strategies on the wider community. These estimates are used as inputs into the development of alternative policy instruments that are then evaluated in terms of their potential cost-effectiveness in influencing private management. Two case studies of wetland management on private land in Australia are presented ??? the Upper South East Region of South Australia, and, the Murrumbidgee River Floodplain in New South Wales. The conceptual approach described in the first part of the thesis includes a description of the resource management problem and the strengths and weaknesses of the alternative decision frameworks widely employed in Australia. Identification of the cause and nature of transaction costs in the management process is the focus in this discussion. The welfare impacts of alternative wetland management strategies are investigated through the construction of a bio-economic model for each of the case study areas. The approach integrates biophysical analysis of changing wetland management with the value society places on wetlands. Outputs from this process are used in the development of a range of policy instruments directed towards influencing wetland management. The impact of poorly quantified and uncertain transaction costs on the potential cost-effectiveness of these options is evaluated using threshold policy analysis. The empirical results show that the perception of a conflict between the private and public values generated by resource management is accurate. For example, scenarios changing wetland management in the Upper South East of South Australia on the Murrumbidgee River floodplain in New South Wales were shown to generate net benefits of $5.2m and $5.1m respectively. Hence, changing wetland management could generate increased community welfare. The potential for these findings to be translated into wetland policy is less conclusive. Policies directed towards wetland management (in part or in whole) incur a range of transaction costs and deliver differential wetland protection benefits. Ten ???best bet??? policies are identified, but more information is required to determine conclusively whether a net benefit results to the wider community when transaction costs are included.

Transport infrastructure investment decision making is typically based on a range of inputs such as social, environmental and economic factors. The benefit cost ratio (BCR), a measure of economic efficiency (“value for money”) determined through cost benefit analysis (CBA), is dependent on accurate estimates of the various option costs and net social benefits such as reductions in travel time, accidents, and vehicle operating costs. However, most evaluations are deterministic procedures using point estimates for the inputs and producing point estimates for the outputs. Transport planners have primarily focused on the cost risks and treat risk through sensitivity testing. Probabilistic risk analysis techniques are available which could provide more information about the statistical confidence of the economic evaluation outputs. This research project report investigated how risk and uncertainty are dealt with in the literature and guidelines. The treatment of uncertainty in the Nelson Arterial Traffic Study (ATS) was reviewed and an opportunity to apply risk analysis to develop probabilities of sea level rise impacting on the coastal road options was identified. A simplified transport model and economic evaluation case study based on the ATS was developed in Excel to enable the application of @RISK Monte Carlo simulation software. The simplifications mean that the results are not comparable with the ATS. Seven input variables and their likely distributions were defined for simulation based on the literature review. The simulation of seven variables, five worksheets, and 10,000 iterations takes about 30 seconds of computation time. The input variables in rank order of influence on the BCR were capital cost, car mode share, unit vehicle operating cost, basic employment forecast growth rate, and unit value of time cost. The deterministically derived BCR of 0.75 is associated with a 50% chance that the BCR will be less than 0.6, although this probability is partly based on some statistical parameters without an empirical basis. In practice, probability distribution fitting to appropriate datasets should be undertaken to better support probabilistic risk analysis conclusions. Probabilities for different confidence levels can be reported to suit the risk tolerance of the decision makers. It was determined that the risk analysis approach is feasible and can produce useful outputs, given a clear understanding of the data inputs and their associated distributions.