There has been growing recent interest in the field of active learning for binary classification. This thesis develops a Bayesian approach to active learning which aims to minimise the objective function on which the learner is evaluated, namely the expected misclassification cost. We call this approach the expected cost reduction approach to active learning. In this form of active learning queries are selected by performing a `lookahead' to evaluate the associated expected misclassification cost. \paragraph{} Firstly, we introduce the concept of a \textit{query density} to explicitly model how new data is sampled. An expected cost reduction framework for active learning is then developed which allows the learner to sample data according to arbitrary query densities. The model makes no assumption of independence between queries, instead updating model parameters on the basis of both which observations were made \textsl{and} how they were sampled. This approach is demonstrated on the probabilistic high-low game which is a non-separable extension of the high-low game presented by \cite{Seung_etal1993}. The results indicate that the Bayes expected cost reduction approach performs significantly better than passive learning even when there is considerable overlap between the class distributions, covering $30\%$ of input space. For the probabilistic high-low game however narrow queries appear to consistently outperform wide queries. We therefore conclude the first part of the thesis by investigating whether or not this is always the case, demonstrating examples where sampling broadly is favourable to a single input query. \paragraph{} Secondly, we explore the Bayesian expected cost reduction approach to active learning within the pool-based setting. This is where learning is limited to a finite pool of unlabelled observations from which the learner may select observations to be queried for class-labels. Our implementation of this approach uses Gaussian process classification with the expectation propagation approximation to make the necessary inferences. The implementation is demonstrated on six benchmark data sets and again demonstrates superior performance to passive learning.

The study explores binary classification with Support Vector Machines as means to predict a satisfaction score based on customer surveys in the customer supportdomain. Standard feature selection methods and their impact on results are evaluated and a feature scoring metric Log Odds Ratio is implemented for addressingasymmetrical class distributions. Results show that the feature selection andscoring methods implemented improve performance significantly. Results alsoshow that it is possible to get decent predictive values on test data based onlimited amount of training observations. However mixed results are presentedin a real-world application example as a there is a significant error rate fordiscriminating the minority class. We also show the negative effects of usingcommon metrics such as accuracy and f-measure for optimizing models whendealing with high-skew data in a classification context.

No description available.

This thesis examines the performance of the support vector machine and the random forest models in the context of binary classification. The two techniques are compared and the outstanding one is used to construct a final parsimonious model. The data set consists of 33 observations and 89 biomarkers as features with no known dependent variable. The dependent variable is generated through k-means clustering, with a predefined final solution of two clusters. The training of the algorithms is performed using five-fold cross-validation repeated twenty times. The outcome of the training process reveals that the best performing versions of the models are a linear support vector machine and a random forest with six randomly selected features at each split. The final results of the comparison on the test set of these optimally tuned algorithms show that the random forest outperforms the linear kernel support vector machine. The former classifies all observations in the test set correctly whilst the latter classifies all but one correctly. Hence, a parsimonious random forest model using the top five features is constructed, which, to conclude, performs equally well on the test set compared to the original random forest model using all features.

Gestational diabetes Mellitus (GDM), a condition involving abnormal levels of glucose in the blood plasma has seen a rapid surge amongst the gestating mothers belonging to different regions and ethnicities around the world. Cur- rent method of screening and diagnosing GDM is restricted to Oral Glucose Tolerance Test (OGTT). With the advent of machine learning algorithms, the healthcare has seen a surge of machine learning methods for disease diag- nosis which are increasingly being employed in a clinical setup. Yet in the area of GDM, there has not been wide spread utilization of these algorithms to generate multi-parametric diagnostic models to aid the clinicians for the aforementioned condition diagnosis.In literature, there is an evident scarcity of application of machine learn- ing algorithms for the GDM diagnosis. It has been limited to the proposed use of some very simple algorithms like logistic regression. Hence, we have attempted to address this research gap by employing a wide-array of machine learning algorithms, known to be effective for binary classification, for GDM classification early on amongst gestating mother. This can aid the clinicians for early diagnosis of GDM and will offer chances to mitigate the adverse out- comes related to GDM among the gestating mother and their progeny.We set up an empirical study to look into the performance of different ma- chine learning algorithms used specifically for the task of GDM classification. These algorithms were trained on a set of chosen predictor variables by the ex- perts. Then compared the results with the existing machine learning methods in the literature for GDM classification based on a set of performance metrics. Our model couldn’t outperform the already proposed machine learning mod- els for GDM classification. We could attribute it to our chosen set of predictor variable and the under reporting of various performance metrics like precision in the existing literature leading to a lack of informed comparison. / Graviditetsdiabetes Mellitus (GDM), ett tillstånd som involverar onormala ni- våer av glukos i blodplasma har haft en snabb kraftig ökning bland de drab- bade mammorna som tillhör olika regioner och etniciteter runt om i världen. Den nuvarande metoden för screening och diagnos av GDM är begränsad till Oralt glukosetoleranstest (OGTT). Med tillkomsten av maskininlärningsalgo- ritmer har hälso- och sjukvården sett en ökning av maskininlärningsmetoder för sjukdomsdiagnos som alltmer används i en klinisk installation. Ändå inom GDM-området har det inte använts stor spridning av dessa algoritmer för att generera multiparametriska diagnostiska modeller för att hjälpa klinikerna för ovannämnda tillståndsdiagnos.I litteraturen finns det en uppenbar brist på tillämpning av maskininlär- ningsalgoritmer för GDM-diagnosen. Det har begränsats till den föreslagna användningen av några mycket enkla algoritmer som logistisk regression. Där- för har vi försökt att ta itu med detta forskningsgap genom att använda ett brett spektrum av maskininlärningsalgoritmer, kända för att vara effektiva för binär klassificering, för GDM-klassificering tidigt bland gesterande mamma. Det- ta kan hjälpa klinikerna för tidig diagnos av GDM och kommer att erbjuda chanser att mildra de negativa utfallen relaterade till GDM bland de dödande mamma och deras avkommor.Vi inrättade en empirisk studie för att undersöka prestandan för olika ma- skininlärningsalgoritmer som används specifikt för uppgiften att klassificera GDM. Dessa algoritmer tränades på en uppsättning valda prediktorvariabler av experterna. Jämfört sedan resultaten med de befintliga maskininlärnings- metoderna i litteraturen för GDM-klassificering baserat på en uppsättning pre- standametriker. Vår modell kunde inte överträffa de redan föreslagna maskininlärningsmodellerna för GDM-klassificering. Vi kunde tillskriva den valda uppsättningen prediktorvariabler och underrapportering av olika prestanda- metriker som precision i befintlig litteratur vilket leder till brist på informerad jämförelse.

In recent years, the popularity of wind energy has grown. It is starting to play a large role in generating renewable, clean energy around the world. In New Zealand, there is increasing recognition and awareness of global warming and the pollution caused by burning fossil fuels, as well as the increased difficulty of obtaining oil from foreign sources, and the fluctuating price of non-renewable energy products. This makes wind energy a very attractive alternative to keep New Zealand clean and green. There are many issues involved in wind farm development. These issues can be grouped into two categories - economic issues and environmental issues. Wind farm developers often use site selection process to minimise the impact of these issues. This thesis aims to develop GIS based models that provide effective decision support tool for evaluating, at a regional scale, potential wind farm locations. This thesis firstly identifies common issues involved in wind farm development. Then, by reviewing previous research on wind farm site selection, methods and models used by academic and corporate sector to solve issues are listed. Criteria for an effective decision support tool are also discussed. In this case, an effective decision support tool needs to be flexible, easy to implement and easy to use. More specifically, an effective decision support tool needs to provide users the ability to identify areas that are suitable for wind farm development based on different criteria. Having established the structure and criteria for a wind farm analysis model, a GIS based tool was implemented using AML code using a Boolean logic model approach. This method uses binary maps for the final analysis. There are a total of 3645 output maps produced based on different combination of criteria. These maps can be used to conduct sensitivity analysis. This research concludes that an effective GIS analysis tool can be developed for provide effective decision support for evaluating wind farm sites.

One of the main criticisms of previously studied label noise models in the PAC-learning framework is the inability of such models to represent the noise in real world data. In this thesis, we study this problem by introducing a framework for modeling label noise and suggesting four new label noise models. We prove positive learnability results for these noise models in learning simple concept classes and discuss the difficulty of the problem of learning other interesting concept classes under these new models. In addition, we study the previous general learning algorithm, called the minimum pn-disagreement strategy, that is used to prove learnability results in the PAC-learning framework both in the absence and presence of noise. Because of limitations of the minimum pn-disagreement strategy, we propose a new general learning algorithm called the minimum nn-disagreement strategy. Finally, for both minimum pn-disagreement strategy and minimum nn-disagreement strategy, we investigate some properties of label noise models that provide sufficient conditions for the learnability of specific concept classes.

No description available.

Granular computing facilitates dealing with information by providing a theoretical framework to deal with information as granules at different levels of granularity (different levels of specificity/abstraction). It aims to provide an abstract explainable description of the data by forming granules that represent the features or the underlying structure of corresponding subsets of the data. In this thesis, a granular computing approach to the design of intelligent classification systems is proposed. The proposed approach is employed for different classification systems to investigate its efficiency. Fuzzy inference systems, neural networks, neuro-fuzzy systems and classifier ensembles are considered to evaluate the efficiency of the proposed approach. Each of the considered systems is designed using the proposed approach and classification performance is evaluated and compared to that of the standard system. The proposed approach is based on constructing information granules from data at multiple levels of granularity. The granulation process is performed using a modified fuzzy c-means algorithm that takes classification problem into account. Clustering is followed by a coarsening process that involves merging small clusters into large ones to form a lower granularity level. The resulted granules are used to build each of the considered binary classifiers in different settings and approaches. Granules produced by the proposed granulation method are used to build a fuzzy classifier for each granulation level or set of levels. The performance of the classifiers is evaluated using real life data sets and measured by two classification performance measures: accuracy and area under receiver operating characteristic curve. Experimental results show that fuzzy systems constructed using the proposed method achieved better classification performance. In addition, the proposed approach is used for the design of neural network classifiers. Resulted granules from one or more granulation levels are used to train the classifiers at different levels of specificity/abstraction. Using this approach, the classification problem is broken down into the modelling of classification rules represented by the information granules resulting in more interpretable system. Experimental results show that neural network classifiers trained using the proposed approach have better classification performance for most of the data sets. In a similar manner, the proposed approach is used for the training of neuro-fuzzy systems resulting in similar improvement in classification performance. Lastly, neural networks built using the proposed approach are used to construct a classifier ensemble. Information granules are used to generate and train the base classifiers. The final ensemble output is produced by a weighted sum combiner. Based on the experimental results, the proposed approach has improved the classification performance of the base classifiers for most of the data sets. Furthermore, a genetic algorithm is used to determine the combiner weights automatically.

In the industry, a lot of companies are facing the explosion of big data. With this much information stored, companies want to make sense of the data and use it to help them for better decision making, especially for future prediction. A lot of money can be saved and huge revenue can be generated with the power of big data. When building statistical learning models for prediction, companies in the industry are aiming to build models with efficiency and high accuracy. After the learning models have been developed for production, new data will be generated. With the updated data, the models have to be updated as well. Due to this nature, the model performs best today doesn’t mean it will necessarily perform the same tomorrow. Thus, it is very hard to decide which algorithm should be used to build the learning model. This paper introduces a new method that ensembles the information generated by two different classification statistical learning algorithms together as inputs for another learning model to increase the final prediction power. The dataset used in this paper is NASA’s Turbofan Engine Degradation data. There are 49 numeric features (X) and the response Y is binary with 0 indicating the engine is working properly and 1 indicating engine failure. The model’s purpose is to predict whether the engine is going to pass or fail. The dataset is divided in training set and testing set. First, training set is used twice to build support vector machine (SVM) and neural network models. Second, it used the trained SVM and neural network model taking X of the training set as input to predict Y1 and Y2. Then, it takes Y1 and Y2 as inputs to build the Penalized Logistic Regression model, which is the ensemble model here. Finally, use the testing set follow the same steps to get the final prediction result. The model accuracy is calculated using overall classification accuracy. The result shows that the ensemble model has 92% accuracy. The prediction accuracies of SVM, neural network and ensemble models are compared to prove that the ensemble model successfully captured the power of the two individual learning model.