This dissertation consists of three essays on reputation and repeated games. Reputation models typically assume players have full memory of past events, yet in many applications this assumption does not hold. In the first chapter, I explore two different relaxations of the assumption that history is perfectly observed in the context of Ely and Välimäki's (2003) mechanic game, where reputation (with full history observation) is clearly bad for all players. First I consider "limited history," where short-run players see only the most recent T periods. For large T, the full history equilibrium behavior always holds due to an "echo" effect (for high discount factors); for small T, the repeated static equilibrium exists. Second I consider "fading history," where short-run players randomly sample past periods with probabilities that "fade" toward zero for older periods. When fading is faster than a fairly lax threshold, the long-run player always acts myopically, a result that holds more generally for reputation games where the long-run player has a strictly dominant stage game action. This finding suggests that reputational incentives may be too weak to affect long-run player behavior in some realistic word-of-mouth environments. The second chapter develops general theoretical tools to study incomplete information games where players observe only finitely many recent periods. I derive a recursive characterization of the set of equilibrium payoffs, which allows analysis of both stationary and (previously unexplored) non-stationary equilibria. I also introduce "quasi-Markov perfection," an equilibrium refinement which is a necessary condition of any equilibrium that is "non-fragile" (purifiable), i.e., robust to small, additively separable and independent perturbations of payoffs. These tools are applied to two examples. The first is a product choice game with 1-period memory of the firm's actions, obtaining a complete characterization of the exact minimum and maximum purifiable equilibrium payoffs for almost all discount factors and prior beliefs on an "honest" Stackelberg commitment type, which shows that non-stationary equilibria expand the equilibrium set. The second is the same game with long memory: in all stationary and purifiable equilibria, the long-run player obtains exactly the Stackelberg payoff so long as the memory is longer than a threshold dependent on the prior. These results show that the presence of the honest type (even for arbitrarily small prior beliefs) qualitatively changes the equilibrium set for any fixed discount factor above a threshold independent of the prior, thereby not requiring extreme patience. The third chapter studies the question of why drug trafficking organizations inflict violence on each other, and why conflict breaks out under some government crackdowns and not others, in a repeated games context. Violence between Mexican drug cartels soared following the government's anti-cartel offensive starting in 2006, but not under previous crackdowns. I construct a theoretical explanation for these observations and previous empirical research. I develop a duopoly model where the firms have the capacity to make costly attacks on each other. The firms use the threat of violence to incentivize inter-cartel cooperation, and under imperfect monitoring, violence occurs on the equilibrium path of a high payoff equilibrium. When a "corrupt" government uses the threat of law enforcement as a punishment for uncooperative behavior, violence is not needed as frequently to achieve high payoffs. When government cracks down indiscriminately, the firms may return to frequent violence as a way of ensuring cooperation and high payoffs, even if the crackdown makes drug trafficking otherwise less profitable. / text

This thesis consists of four independent chapters, in which well-known economic theories are employed to investigate, and better understand, data and facts from the real world. Although in fairly distant topics, each paper is an example of how economics, and more precisely microeconomics, offers a rigorous and effective framework to reason about what happens around us. In this sense, my dissertation fully represents what I have learnt in these five years. The first paper addresses the experimental behavior of subjects that interact with each other, non-cooperatively, in a laboratory setup. The experimental evidence is found to be at odds with the predictions of classical game-theory, and I explore whether a model of bounded rationality can instead succeed in explaining the data. The second paper looks at another type of data, historical rather than experimental. Together with Björn Wallace, we raise doubts, methodological and interpretational, regarding the validity of a recent finding that documents a sizeable effect of Africa's past slave trades on current economic performance. The last two papers investigate the phenomenon of limited records, understood as the limited availability of past public data regarding a transacting partner. The former is a survey, written jointly with Giancarlo Spagnolo, wherein we discuss the literatures that have independently studied whether limited records may actually prompt beneficial reputation effects. We argue that what is known about this type of informational arrangement is little and scattered, and that this is problematic given the large number of real-life situations featuring limited records. These conclusions prepare the ground for the last paper of this dissertation, which presents a model of limited credit records. The model aims at providing a framework for evaluating the current privacy provisions in the credit market which mandate the removal of information about borrowers' past performance from public registers after a finite number of years. / Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögskolan i Stockholm, 2011

Submitted by Camila Yumy Saito (camilaysaito@gmail.com) on 2016-02-12T20:32:20Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação_CamilaSaito_versao_final_20160212.pdf: 1501778 bytes, checksum: 00c4f71977ac99248a0431bbf9dc63d0 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Renata de Souza Nascimento (renata.souza@fgv.br) on 2016-02-15T15:49:25Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação_CamilaSaito_versao_final_20160212.pdf: 1501778 bytes, checksum: 00c4f71977ac99248a0431bbf9dc63d0 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-02-15T15:56:57Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação_CamilaSaito_versao_final_20160212.pdf: 1501778 bytes, checksum: 00c4f71977ac99248a0431bbf9dc63d0 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-02-05 / O objetivo deste trabalho é abordar uma das linhas de investigação que tenta explicar o comportamento dos indivíduos no voto, a teoria da escolha racional ou teoria econômica do voto, a qual defende que os eleitores votam em governantes ou partidos potencialmente capazes de trazer-lhes algum benefício social ou econômico. No entanto, a relação entre desempenho de indicadores socioeconômicos e o resultado das urnas não se mostra tão evidente. A elevada assimetria de informação presente entre eleitores e formuladores de políticas públicas, além do problema conhecido como bounded memory, pode ajudar a explicar a não identificação ou a frágil evidência de racionalidade econômica no voto. Uma forma de tentar dirimir esses problemas, particularmente no caso de eleições estaduais, é através da divulgação de sistemas de rankings estaduais, que sejam de simples interpretação para o eleitorado. Assim, é feita uma proposta de elaboração de um ranking de desenvolvimento estadual que, por fim, é utilizado para testar a presença de racionalidade econômica nas eleições estaduais brasileiras. Os resultados não mostraram indicações de escolha racional nas eleições estaduais brasileiras e reforçam o argumento de que há elevada assimetria de informação e de bounded memory, o que poderia ser dirimido, ao menos em parte, com a maior propagação de sistemas de rankings estaduais. / The objective of this study is to make analysis of one of the lines of research that attempts to explain the behavior of individuals in voting, the rational choice theory or economic theory of voting, which argues that citizens vote for rulers potentially capable to bring them some social or economic benefit. However, the relationship between socio-economic indicators performance and the result of the ballot box does not appear so obvious. The high information asymmetry present among voters and policy makers, in addition to the problem known as bounded memory can help explain the failure to identify or flimsy evidence of economic rationality in the vote. One way to try to resolve these issues, particularly in the case of state elections is through the dissemination of state rankings systems which are simple to electorate interpretation. Thus a proposal to draw up a state development ranking is done, which is used to test the presence of economic rationality in the Brazilian state elections. The results showed no indications of rational choice in the Brazilian state elections and reinforce the argument that there is high information asymmetry and bounded memory, which could be settled, at least in part, to the further spread of state rankings systems.