This dissertation examines the pricing of the same credit risk in two currencies, and hence the valuation of credit-contingent foreign exchange products. Such pricing hinges upon the dependence of the credit risk and the foreign exchange rate. We recall the reduced-form model proposed by Ehlers (2007), which allows credit-currency dependence through correlation between the Brownian motions driving the default intensity and the exchange rate, and through a jump in the exchange rate at the default time. Four basic specifications of this model are considered. Two of these specifications have not previously appeared in the literature and one of these, based on a lognormal process for the default intensity, proves to be especially useful and tractable. The problem of hedging defaultable claims in one currency with similar claims in another is briefly considered, and it is shown that hedging against the default event and against credit spread movements are not in general equivalent.

Understand the behavior of queueing networks in heavy tra c is very important due to its importance in evaluating the network performance in related applications. However, in many cases, the stationary distributions of such networks are intractable. Based on di usion limits of queueing networks, we can use Re ected Brownian Motion (RBM) processes as reasonable approximations. As such, we are interested in obtaining the stationary distribution of RBM. Unfortunately, these distributions are also in most cases intractable. However, the tail behavior (large deviations) of RBM may give insight into the stationary distribution. Assuming that a large deviations principle holds, we need only solve the corresponding variational problem to obtain the rate function. Our research is mainly focused on how to solve variational problems in the case of rotationally symmetric (RS) data. The contribution of this dissertation primarily consists of three parts. In the rst part we give out the speci c stability condition for the RBM in the octant in the RS vi case. Although the general stability conditions for RBM in the octant has been derived previously, we simplify these conditions for the case we consider. In the second part we prove that there are only two types of possible solutions for the variational problem. In the last part, we provide a simple computational method. Also we give an example under which a spiral path is the optimal solution. / text

Barrier options have become increasingly popular financial instruments due to the lower costs and the ability to more closely match speculating or hedging needs. In addition, barrier options play a significant role in modeling and managing risks in insurance and finance as well as in refining insurance products such as variable annuities and equity-indexed annuities. Motivated by these immediate applications arising from actuarial and financial contexts, the thesis studies the pricing of barrier options and some exotic variations, assuming that the underlying asset price follows the Black-Scholes model or jump-diffusion processes. Barrier options have already been well treated in the classical Black-Scholes framework. The first part of the thesis aims to develop a new valuation approach based on the technique of exponential stopping and/or path counting of Brownian motions. We allow the option's boundaries to vary exponentially in time with different rates, and manage to express our pricing formulas properly as combinations of the prices of certain binary options. These expressions are shown to be extremely convenient in further pricing some exotic variations including sequential barrier options, immediate rebate options, multi-asset barrier options and window barrier options. Many known results will be reproduced and new explicit formulas will also be derived, from which we can better understand the impact on option values of various sophisticated barrier structures. We also consider jump-diffusion models, where it becomes difficult, if not impossible, to obtain the barrier option value in analytical form for exponentially curved boundaries. Our model assumes that the logarithm of the underlying asset price is a Brownian motion plus an independent compound Poisson process. It is quite common to assign a particular distribution (such as normal or double exponential distribution) for the jump size if one wants to pursue closed-form solutions, whereas our method permits any distributions for the jump size as long as they belong to the exponential family. The formulas derived in the thesis are explicit in the sense that they can be efficiently implemented through Monte Carlo simulations, from which we achieve a good balance between solution tractability and model complexity.

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Cette thèse se positionne au croisement de la théorie de la décision en univers incertain et de la théorie des choix d’investissements irréversibles (options réelles). Elle poursuit trois objectifs principaux :1. Tout d’abord, elle s’inscrit dans un courant de recherche dynamique, notamment en économie et en finance, qui vise à modéliser l’impact de l’ambigüité à laquelle des décideurs sont parfois confrontés lorsqu’ils contemplent des choix aux conséquences irréversibles. 2. Ensuite, elle met l’accent sur la persistance de fortes controverses théoriques portant sur les fondements axiomatiques des modèles de décision face à l’ambigüité. Aussi, nous proposons d’utiliser certaines propriétés des modèles non linéaires pour aborder sous un angle original la représentation de l’ambigüité et des préférences des individus face à celle-ci. En particulier, nous suggérons de ne pas restreindre a priori la nature des préférences individuelles face à l’ambigüité. Pour cela, nous adoptons les fondements de l’approche de Choquet, à savoir tout particulièrement l’emploi de capacités (probabilités non additives) pour pondérer les différentes alternatives ambigües. Tout en proposant ce processus stochastique ambigu, dit Choquet-Brownien, nous soulignons les conditions de l’inévitable arbitrage entre réalisme des hypothèses et souplesse d’utilisation du modèle. D’un point de vue axiomatique, une attention particulière est portée au respect de la cohérence dynamique.3. Enfin, cette thèse vise à encourager une prise en considération plus ambitieuse des sources d’incertitude dans le cadre des options réelles. Alors qu’ils sont présentés comme des outils privilégiés pour affronter le risque, les modèles d’options réelles ont certainement beaucoup à gagner à s’enrichir par la prise en compte également de l’ambigüité. En effet, alors que le risque est largement discuté dans la littérature des options réelles, l’impact de l’ambigüité est très largement ignoré. / The need to elaborate innovative methods to analyze risk and uncertainty has become increasingly obvious over the last decades, especially due the growing perception of the multiplicity of social and economical issues characterized by the weight of uncertainty (natural disasters, ecological risk, financial crises…).This thesis is at the crossroad between decision theory under uncertainty and the irreversible investment theory (real options). Consequently, the main goal of this thesis is three-fold: 1. First, it contributes to the dynamic stream of literature in economics and finance that models the impact of ambiguity that individuals may often face and/or perceive when contemplating irreversible choices.2. Next, this thesis emphasizes that even with the plethora of decision models already dealing with uncertainty, elaborating sound axiomatic foundations largely remains an open question. This leads us to recommending the use of non linear models (such as multiple-priors, Choquet expected utility, robust control, smooth ambiguity), which in turn raises many challenging theoretical and practical obstacles. We explore original ways of addressing some of these issues and suggest the construction of ambiguous stochastic processes in a Choquet expected utility framework (that are called Choquet-Brownian motions): ambiguity preferences are thereby directly embedded into the trajectory of some random variables that may drive a decision, such as the expected cash flows of an investment project or its exit value.3. Finally, this thesis also aims specifically at encouraging the enrichment of real option models. It is striking that only the impact of risk has been widely discussed by the real option theory so far, while the specific impact of ambiguity has been largely ignored. Considering that the real option theory is directly concerned with sources of flexibility, irreversibility and uncertainty in general, ambiguity represents a promising expansion.

Cette thèse est consacrée à l’étude des équations aux dérivées partielles stochastiques de type parabolique. Dans la première partie nous démontrons de nouveaux résultats concernant l’existence et l’unicité de solutions variationnelles globales et locales à des problèmes avec des conditions aux bords de type Neumann pour une classe d’équations aux dérivées partielles stochastiques non-autonomes. Les équations que nous considérons sont définies sur des domaines non bornés de l’espace euclidien qui satisfont à certaines conditions géométriques, et sont dirigées par un bruit multiplicatif dérivé d’un processus de Wiener fractionnaire infini-dimensionnel caractérisé par une suite de paramètres de Hurst H = (Hi) i ∈ N+ ⊂ (1/2,1). Ces paramètres sont en fait soumis à d’autres contraintes intimement liées à la nature de la non-linéarité dans le terme stochastique des équations, et au choix des espaces fonctionnels dans lesquels le problème à résoudre est bien posé. Notre méthode de preuve repose essentiellement sur des arguments d’injections compactes. Dans la seconde partie, nous étudions la possibilité de l’explosion de solutions d’une classe d’équations aux dérivées partielles stochastiques semi-linéaire avec des conditions aux bords de type Dirichlet, perturbées par un mélange d’un mouvement brownien et d’un mouvement brownien fractionnaire et dirigées par une classe d’opérateurs différentiels non autonomes contenant des processus de diffusions et des processus de Lévy. Notre but est de comprendre l’influence de la partie stochastique et de l’opérateur différentiel sur le comportement d’explosion des solutions. En particulier, nous donnons des expressions explicites pour des bornes inférieures et supérieures du temps de l’explosion de la solution, et des conditions suffisantes pour l’existence d’une solution globale positive. Nous estimons également la probabilité d’une explosion en temps fini et la loi d’une borne supérieur du temps d’explosion de la solution / This thesis is concerned with stochastic partial differential equations of parabolic type. In the first part we prove new results regarding the existence and the uniqueness of global and local variational solutions to a Neumann initial-boundary value problem for a class of non-autonomous stochastic parabolic partial differential equations. The equations we consider are defined on unbounded open domains in Euclidean space satisfying certain geometric conditions, and are driven by a multiplicative noise derived from an infinite-dimensional fractional Wiener process characterized by a sequence of Hurst parameters H = (Hi) i ∈ N+ ⊂ (1/2,1). These parameters are in fact subject to further constraints that are intimately tied up with the nature of the nonlinearity in the stochastic term of the equations, and with the choice of the functional spaces in which the problem at hand is well-posed. Our method of proof rests on compactness arguments in an essential way. The second part is devoted to the study of the blowup behavior of solutions to semilinear stochastic partial differential equations with Dirichlet boundary conditions driven by a class of differential operators including (not necessarily symmetric) Lévy processes and diffusion processes, and perturbed by a mixture of Brownian and fractional Brownian motions. Our aim is to understand the influence of the stochastic part and that of the differential operator on the blowup behavior of the solutions. In particular we derive explicit expressions for an upper and a lower bound of the blowup time of the solution and provide a sufficient condition for the existence of global positive solutions. Furthermore, we give estimates of the probability of finite time blowup and for the tail probabilities of an upper bound for the blowup time of the solutions

The work consists of two parts. In the first part which is concerned with random walks, we construct the conditional versions of a multidimensional random walk given that it does not leave the Weyl chambers of type C and of type D, respectively, in terms of a Doob h-transform. Furthermore, we prove functional limit theorems for the rescaled random walks. This is an extension of recent work by Eichelsbacher and Koenig who studied the analogous conditioning for the Weyl chamber of type A. Our proof follows recent work by Denisov and Wachtel who used martingale properties and a strong approximation of random walks by Brownian motion. Therefore, we are able to keep minimal moment assumptions. Finally, we present an alternate function that is amenable to an h-transform in the Weyl chamber of type C. In the second part which is concerned with Brownian motion, we examine the non-exit probability of a multidimensional Brownian motion from a growing truncated Weyl chamber. Different regimes are identified according to the growth speed, ranging from polynomial decay over stretched-exponential to exponential decay. Furthermore we derive associated large deviation principles for the empirical measure of the properly rescaled and transformed Brownian motion as the dimension grows to infinity. Our main tool is an explicit eigenvalue expansion for the transition probabilities before exiting the truncated Weyl chamber.

The work consists of two parts. In the first part which is concerned with random walks, we construct the conditional versions of a multidimensional random walk given that it does not leave the Weyl chambers of type C and of type D, respectively, in terms of a Doob h-transform. Furthermore, we prove functional limit theorems for the rescaled random walks. This is an extension of recent work by Eichelsbacher and Koenig who studied the analogous conditioning for the Weyl chamber of type A. Our proof follows recent work by Denisov and Wachtel who used martingale properties and a strong approximation of random walks by Brownian motion. Therefore, we are able to keep minimal moment assumptions. Finally, we present an alternate function that is amenable to an h-transform in the Weyl chamber of type C. In the second part which is concerned with Brownian motion, we examine the non-exit probability of a multidimensional Brownian motion from a growing truncated Weyl chamber. Different regimes are identified according to the growth speed, ranging from polynomial decay over stretched-exponential to exponential decay. Furthermore we derive associated large deviation principles for the empirical measure of the properly rescaled and transformed Brownian motion as the dimension grows to infinity. Our main tool is an explicit eigenvalue expansion for the transition probabilities before exiting the truncated Weyl chamber.