The purpose of this thesis is to analyze how the world market price of crude oil, coal and natural gas affects the demand of and dependency on energy imports from the Russian Federation of key European countries[1]. We achieve our objective through econometric estimations of import demand equations concerning imports from the Russian Federation of crude oil, coal and natural gas for seven EU key countries during 1990-2014.Three out of twenty-one models were found to be statistically significant for both the spot price- and income elasticity. The spot price elasticities for the models where: coal import demand for Finland (-0.49), crude oil import demand for Italy (-0.44) and the Netherlands (-0.42). The income elasticities for the aforementioned models were found to be: Finland (2.58), Italy (5.85) and the Netherlands (7.62). The remaining models were statistically insignificant presumably due to different internal structures in the data or due to the assumption of perfect substitute model. [1] EU key countries include: Austria, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, and the United Kingdom. / Syftet med denna uppsats är att analysera hur världsmarknadspriset på råolja, kol och naturgas påverkar den europeiska efterfrågan på och beroendet av energiimport från Ryssland. Ekonometriska uppskattningar av importefterfrågan för råolja, kol och naturgas som produceras av Ryska Federationen för sju EU nyckelländer kommer att produceras. Huvudsyftet är att uppskatta elasticiteter hos importefterfrågan som kännetecknar de handelsförbindelserna mellan Ryssland och sju EU nyckelländerna med avseende på de tre energiresurser.  Tre av tjugoen modeller visade sig vara signifikanta för både världsmarknadspriset och inkomstelasticiteten. Följande variabler och elasticiteter för priset var signifikant; Kol Importefterfrågan för Finland (-0,49), Olje Importefterfrågan för Italien (-0,44) och Nederländerna (-0,42). Inkomstelasticitet för de nämnda modellerna estimeras vara; Finland (2,58), Italien (5,85) och Nederländerna (7,62). Den statistiska insignifikansen hos de övriga modellerna härstamma troligtvis från den interna strukturen på datat eller antagandet om den perfekta substitut modellen

This master thesis investigates and answers three fundamental questions regarding structural changes of a future market. This has been done by analysing and comparing three commodity markets with the Nordic electricity market. Examined commodity markets are LME steel billet, CME lean hogs and WTI & Brent crude oil. The report consists of a literature review with a theoretical background, CATWOE and a case analysis of each commodity market. The markets are thereafter analysed, compared and discussed regarding the research questions. It is concluded that the Nordic electricity market is in many ways comparable to other commodities, although it has some special characteristics. Key factors determining market success have been identified as (1) correlation between perceived risk and derivative risk, (2) trust for and experience of trading institutions and trading environment and (3) expectations. Based on the findings a new conceptual measure for market liquidity, Relative Market Liquidity, is introduced and discussed. The comparison in this thesis is based on the Nordic electricity market, but much of the results are applicable to other commodity markets. The thesis has been written during spring 2013 at the Royal Institute of Technology Department of Energy Technology in co-operation with Vattenfall AB.

This study aims at analysing how African oil benchmarks within the OPEC Reference Basket relative to the WTI and Brent benchmarks which are considered as global pricing benchmarks for the period starting from 1997-2008. The Nigerian Bonny Light and Algerian Saharan blend were the two benchmarks used for this study. A time series analysis was applied to the weekly price data series set and with the aid of a breakpoint unit root test and Cusum of Squared test to determine if there was a change in the persistence of the spread of each African benchmark relative to the global benchmarks. The results for from the unit root test indicated the presence of a structural break in the price spread in 2004 for the Bonny Light benchmark and in 2005 for the Saharan blend relative to both global benchmarks. The Cusum Squared test for the four benchmark pairings indicated a change in persistence of the price spreads. The null hypothesis was rejected for the alternative hypothesis of the price spread process having a relatively high persistence value after a while. The Cusum Test results showed a change in persistence for both African benchmarks relative to the WTI benchmark and no change in persistence relative to the Brent benchmark. The results of from the Time series analysis indicated the competitive nature of African benchmarks relative to global benchmarks and this could benefit exporting countries by virtue of setting up derivative markets. The derivative markets would allow for the trade of benchmark spreads, futures contracts, options and other financial instruments for African oil producers.

The dissertation deals with prediction of crude oil price and is tailor-made for such companies which are heavily crude oil related. The main dissertation target is to make sure that such companies can get ready for price changes and safeguard themselves against negative consequences. Crude oil prices are the main factor which affects prices of such final products as petrol. It is a well known fact that quantitative predictions are not reliable and all those who are forced to real on such vague data set for their decision-making are reluctant to use them. That’s how we would like to have at least the correct trend information. The dissertation introduces some concepts originally developed within artificial intelligence theory for the crude oil predictions. Specifically common sense algorithms and qualitative interpretation of some aspects of theory of chaos are the main contribution towards expanding of available prediction tools described by the dissertation. A systematic analysis of a sequence of qualitative solutions is the key part of the dissertation.

Tall fescue (Schedonorus arundinaceus), is a cool season perennial that provides grazing into the early summer months for southern livestock. Grazing the tall fescue variety, Kentucky-31, has negative effects on animal health, particularly after jointing. Two studies were arranged as randomized complete blocks in a split-plot design, with three replicates to compare: the effect of ten herbicides on seedhead suppression, or the effect of inter-seeding legumes [white clover (Trifolium repens) or alfafla (Medicago sativa)] coupled with nitrogen supplementation on fescue yield and forage nutritive value. The herbicides imazethapyr + 2,4-D and without, metsulfuron + chlorsulfuron, reduced seedheads emergence, but not yield compared to the control. Kentucky-31 inter-seeded with white clover and fertilized with 11 kg N ha-1 produced greater biomass than tall fescue fertilized with 11 kg N ha-1. The inter-seeding of white clover produced composite forage samples with greater in vitro dry matter disappearance than nitrogen supplemented alfalfa.

Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) is a cellulosic feedstock for alternative energy production that could grow well between planted pines (Pinus spp.). Southeastern planted pine occupies 15.8 million hectares and thus, switchgrass intercropping could affect biodiversity if broadly implemented. Therefore, I evaluated effects of intercropping switchgrass in loblolly pine (P. taeda L.) plantations on plant community diversity, plant biomass production, and white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus Zimmerman) nutritional carrying capacity. In a randomized complete block design, I assigned three treatments (switchgrass intercropped, switchgrass monoculture, and a “control” of traditional pine management) to 4 replicates of 10-ha experimental units in Kemper County, Mississippi during 2014-2015. I detected 246 different plant species. Switchgrass intercropping reduced plant species richness and diversity but maintained evenness. I observed reduced forb and high-use deer forage biomass but only in intercropped alleys (interbeds). Soil micronutrient interactions affected forage protein of deer plants. White-tailed deer nutritional carrying capacity remained unaffected.

This study has conducted an OLS-regression to examine the relationship between gasoline and crude oil prices in the Swedish petroleum market, focusing on potential asymmetry, where gasoline prices respond more quickly to increases in crude oil prices compared to decreases. Additionally, we examine the impact of individual petroleum stations' competitiveness on this asymmetry, applying the distance to the nearest station as a measure of competitiveness. To explore this relationship, we utilise two datasets: one comprises unique user-generated data for individual gas stations spanning the period from 2019 to 2022, while the other includes recommended prices covering the period from 2001 to 2020. The findings provide some evidence supporting the existence of asymmetry, indicating the presence of inefficiencies within the market. However, no evidence suggesting larger asymmetry concerning individual competitiveness was discovered. Overall, this research offers novel insights into the dynamics of the Swedish fuel market in recent years.

Waxy crude oils (1/3 of oil produced worldwide), pumping through pipelines considered risky operation due to the crude wax content (15-40 wt.%) and to the temperature at which wax supersaturates and precipitates, leading to the danger of pipe blockage, eventually resulting, in multimillion dollars loss in production and maintenance. This research undertaken to develop operational strategy of waxy crude pipelines, considering the crude and crude gel properties and flow conditions. The research problem was approached by characterizing the crude gel with and without additives using chromatography (GC), differential scanning calorimetry (DSC), cross polarised microscopy (CPM), controlled stress and oscillatory shear rheology (CSR and OSR), the principal parameters being the crude temperature and the rate at which the crude was cooled. GC and DSC were useful in establishing wax composition, content and wax appearance temperature (WAT). Control stress rheometer proved to be the most appropriate as it measured the reduction in apparent viscosity at full production (10-50 s-1 shear rate), near shutdown (1 s-1 ) and yielding when the oil was statically cooled. On this basis, it was established that the wax inhibitor was the most effective. CPM revealed that only the wax inhibitor changed the structure of the gel, disrupting its otherwise knitted crystal network. Dilution with the light crude oil merely reduced the wax content and the pour point depressant reduced the gelling temperature. OSR provided a check on CSR and confirmed the gelation temperature measured. CSR provided the yield stress measured, it also provided comprehensive data that can be used for theoretical modelling of this complex flow. / Libyan Petroleum Institute, Libya

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