The aim of this study is to examine how the EU ETS price has affected the price of electricity in the Nordic electricity market, and how future changes in the carbon price may affect the wholesale electricity prices. The Nordic countries included are Sweden, Norway, Denmark and Finland. The analysis builds on a reduced econometric model where the Nordic electricity price constitutes the dependent variable. Problem with autocorrelation implied that quarterly data rather than monthly data were used. This model is estimated using ordinary least square (OLS) regression technique. Four variables were found to be statistically significant. These include the EU ETS price, the hydro reservoir level, the coal price and the temperature. The estimated coefficients were used to conduct a simulation on what could happen if the EU ETS price increased to € 30 per ton. The results showed that the electricity price would than increase by about € 16 per MWh from its current level at about € 37 per MWh.

I denna uppsats skapar vi en modell för forwardkurvan på den nordiska elmarknaden. Vårt mål är attskapa en modell som är lättanvänd och inte kräver kunskaper om dynamiken hos elpriset. Vår modellär baserad på en modell av Benth, Koekebakker & Ollmar (2007) men justeras med avseende på vårakrav om en lättanvänd modell. Vi validerar vår modell och nner att den har möjlighet att föutspåpriset på ett kvartlaskontrakt med en felmarginal på 1.1 procent. Vi lyckas förutspå en säsongsvariationutan att specikt ange en funktion för säsongsvariationen.

An office building (sthlm new hus 4) located in the south of Hammarbyhamnen overlooking Hammarbybacken is planned in 2018. Climate control of the office building are via radiators, high-temperature chilled beam and pre-treated supply air. The building is currently being designed for district heating and remote cooling. The study aims to investigate whether borehole thermal energy system (BTES) are a reasonable alternative to provide the office building with heat and cooling, from an environmental- and life cycle cost (LCC) perspective. The aim of the study is to generate an energy requirement for the office building, which is done by construct a model of the building using IDA ICE, a simulation software. The energy requirement is covered by either district heating/-cooling (energy system I) or BTES (energy system II) as the primary energy source. A model of the BTES is constructed in excel based on data from experience input. Life cycle cost analysis are used for economical comparison between the energy systems. The environmental assessment is based on Nordic electricity mix, which controls the impact of the energy systems. Energy system II entails a need for energy support to avoid over dimension the heat pump, which is done by complementing the surplus need through district heating and remote cooling. LCC shows an economic breakpoint at 11-year calculation period, where BTES becomes economically advantageously. Environmentally, energy system II releases 14.3 tonnes of CO2eq compared to energy system II which results in a reduced emission of 47 tonnes of CO2eq based on Nordic electricity mix.

This master thesis investigates and answers three fundamental questions regarding structural changes of a future market. This has been done by analysing and comparing three commodity markets with the Nordic electricity market. Examined commodity markets are LME steel billet, CME lean hogs and WTI & Brent crude oil. The report consists of a literature review with a theoretical background, CATWOE and a case analysis of each commodity market. The markets are thereafter analysed, compared and discussed regarding the research questions. It is concluded that the Nordic electricity market is in many ways comparable to other commodities, although it has some special characteristics. Key factors determining market success have been identified as (1) correlation between perceived risk and derivative risk, (2) trust for and experience of trading institutions and trading environment and (3) expectations. Based on the findings a new conceptual measure for market liquidity, Relative Market Liquidity, is introduced and discussed. The comparison in this thesis is based on the Nordic electricity market, but much of the results are applicable to other commodity markets. The thesis has been written during spring 2013 at the Royal Institute of Technology Department of Energy Technology in co-operation with Vattenfall AB.

With the world becoming more conscious about achieving 1.5-degree scenario as promisedby the most powerful economies of the world, much needed push was received by the renewable energy technology providers.  This has led to an increased a share of energy production from renewables and a decrease in the fossil-based energy production with the overall energy production.  As a result, a large share of inertia of the system is lost and a big challenge in the name of flexibility is presented to the world of energy.  Virtual Power Plant is quite a novel and new concept to address the new generation challenge of flexibility and can offer various other benefits like competitivity,reliability, accessibility etc.  In this thesis, a commercial virtual power plant is studied by developing a mixed integer linear model to emulate the trading for short term markets with the risk mea- sures in a Nordic Electricity Framework.  Further, the developed model is implemented in a quite a new mathematical programming language known as “Julia”.  The model is implemented using a hypothetical portfolio consisting of a dispatchable unit, a battery system and a wind farm in the SE3 bidding zone of Sweden.  An investigation on varia- tion of imbalance costs in three different modes also has been carried out, to demonstratethe advantage of such a virtual power plant concept in reducing the imbalance costs. / För att uppfylla 1,5-gradersmålet som beslutats av världens ledande ekonomier har olika‌typer av förnybar energiproduktion fått ett stort uppsving. Detta har lett till ökad energiproduktion från förnybara källor och minskad energiproduktion från fossila källor. För elsystemen innebär en högre andel förnybar produktion minskad svängmassa ochökat behov av flexibilitet för att kompensera för variationen hos förnybara energikällor. Virtuella kraftverk är ett nytt koncept för att tillgodose behovet av flexibilitet och kanäven ge andra fördelar som konkurrenskraft och tillförlitlighet. I denna uppsats studeras ett virtuellt kraftverk genom att utveckla en optimeringsmodell för att emulera handeln i elmarknader med riskmått inom ett ramverk för den nordiska elmarknaden. Modellen implementeras i det nya programmeringsspråket Julia. Modellen innehåller en hypotetisk blandning av resurser bestående av ett planerbart kraftverk, ett batterisystem och en vindpark i elområdet SE3 i Sverige. Balanseringskostnaderna i tre olika modeller undersöks för att visa potentialen hos det virtuella kraftverket att minska dessa kostnader.

This bachelor thesis examines and models the emissions of carbon dioxide equivalents of the composition of automobiles in Sweden 2012. The report will be based on three scenarios of electricity valuation principles, which are a snapshot perspective, a retrospective perspective and a future perspective. The snapshot perspective includes high and low values for electricity on the margin, the retrospective perspective includes Nordic and European electricity mix and the future perspective includes electricity on the margin for modest and high climate goals at 2030. The study is applied to an upcoming climate smart district, Brunnshög in Lund, and the goal is to determine the amount of emissions of carbon dioxide equivalents for the mentioned alternatives. The environmental effects depends largely on the fuel consumption for the compared types of cars and what electricity valuation principle that is used. The car fleet of 2012 generated 10 300 tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions. The future car fleet generated 400 tonnes of emissions for Nordic electricity mix, 3 200 tonnes for European electricity mix, 3 100 tonnes for electricity on the margin with low values, 5 800 tonnes for electricity on the margin with high values, 1 200 tonnes for electricity on the margin at 2030 for high climate goals and 4 600 tonnes for electricity on the margin at 2030 for modest climate goals. The emissions of carbon dioxide equivalents are at least halved in Brunnshög if 100 % electric cars are used instead of the composition of petrol, diesel and ethanol cars that are primarily used in Sweden 2012. Hence, the result shows that the electric car is very beneficial from an environmental and health perspective, compared to the composition of cars in Sweden 2012. However, how beneficial the electric car is, largely depends on the fuel consumption for both the electric car and the alternative compared with. Although to be able to increase the use of electric cars there are many challenges that need to be dealt with. In order to increase the use of electric cars, it will require further work in the development of batteries, expansion of charging points and other incentives, such as legislation and investments. It will also require a significant technology development to increase the range of the electric car. A natural step in the transition phase could be plug-in hybrids. It is also important to continue to implement climate smart districts, such as Brunnshög in Lund.

There has been a motivated desire from different power system operators to have more systems embedded in computing and networking due to the great advantages of adding new capabilities that wasn't before possible. These advantages increased the power system’s up-time, performance and reduced its maintenance but opened a world of possible cyber-attacks. In January 2016, the Ukrainian electricity infrastructure suffered the first power outage caused by destructive malware that left hundreds and thousands of end-users without electricity during the Christmas holidays. Malicious malware are starting to cover cyber-physical systems that connect the physical technical equipment with the networked computational resources. One of these resources, which are currently being further developed, involves futuristic procedures for the electrical billing process. This means that data corruption could lead to both economical and physical consequences, leading to a decrease of the public's trust on metering equipments, the overall smart grid concept and the electricity market actors. The Nordic and Swedish electricity market is under transition to the Supplier Centric Model (SCM), a new market model, which facilitates the billing and payment towards the end-users and the interactions between electrical suppliers and Distribution System Operators (DSO). This model uses a centralized data service hub for information exchange that is owned and operated by the Swedish Transmission System Operator (TSO). Vattenfall IT has thus jointly with the department of Electric Power and Energy systems (EPE) at KTH launched this master thesis that focuses on the risks and consequences caused by cyber-attacks in the SCM. An adversary may cause unwanted actions by business process hacking or knowledge-based hacking by analyzing the business processes maps within the SCM One of the aims of the thesis was to identify the business process vulnerabilities and events of the DSO's and supplier’s business processes in the SCM if the system was under attack and when the power system operator was unaware that the presented data was corrupted. The outcome of the thesis will help improve the business process resilience against cyber-attacks thus leading to an increased trust in the SCM from the general public. Different related attack-scenarios (AS) were investigated to provide a generic solution for improvements to all relevant business service actors. The risks and consequences were found, analyzed and used for developing suggestive improvements for the Billing Business Process (BBP). / Det har funnits ett motiverat önskemål från olika elkraftsoperatörer att flera system inbäddas i datoranvändningen och nätverken på grund av de många fördelar och nya förmågor som inte var möjliga förut. Dessa förmågor ökade elkraftsystemens tillgänglighet, prestanda och minskade dess underhåll men öppnade en värld av möjliga cyber-attacker. Den Ukrainska elektriska infrastrukturen upplevde det första strömavbrottet orsakad av destruktiva skadeprogram som lämnade tusentals användare strömlösa under julen 2015. Skadeprogrammen har börjat täcka cyber-fysiska system som kopplar det fysiska tekniska utrustningen med de nätverskopplade beräkningsresurserna. En av dessa resurser, som för närvarande är under utveckling, involverar framtida procedurer åt faktureringsprocessen för elektricitet. Detta betyder att data korruption kan leda till både ekonomiska och fysiska konsekvenser vilket leder till en förminskning av det allmänna förtroendet på mätningsutrustningen, det generella smarta elnätskonceptet och på elmarknadsaktörerna. Den nordiska och svenska elmarknaden är under övergång till Elleverantörs Centriska Modellen (SCM), en ny marknadsmodell som underlättar fakturering och betalningen gentemot användarna och växelverkan mellan elleverantörerna och elnätsföretagen (DSO). Denna modell använder en centraliserad tjänstehubb för informationsutbytet som ägs och drivs av den svenska systemansvariga myndigheten (TSO). Vattenfall IT har således tillsammans med avdelningen Energi och Elkraft (EPE) på KTH lanserat detta examensarbete som fokuserar på riskerna och konsekvenserna orsakade av cyber-attacker i SCM. Motståndaren kan orsaka oönskade handlingar via hackning av affärsprocesserna eller kunskapsbaserat hackning genom att analysera affärsprocesskartorna inom SCM. Ett mål av examensarbetet var att identifiera affärsprocessernas sårbarheter och händelser av en DSO och elleverantörs affärsprocesser i SCM om systemen var under anfall och elkraftsoperatören är ovetande att det presenterade data är korrumperat. Examensarbetets resultat kommer hjälpa att förbättra affärsprocessernas spänstighet mot cyber-attacker vilket kommer leda till ett ökat förtroende på SCM från allmänheten. Olika relaterade cyber-attack scenarion undersöktes för att förse en generisk lösning för förbättringar åt alla relevanta verksamhetsaktörer. Riskerna och konsekvenserna var funna, analyserade och användes för att utveckla förbättringsförslagen åt faktureringsprocessen (BBP).