Die Wahl risikoadäquater Kapitalkosten ist Voraussetzung für eine Investitionsentscheidung im Interesse der Investoren. In der Energiewirtschaft wird die Ermittlung der Eigenkapitalkosten mit Hilfe des Capital Asset Pricing Models (CAPM) infolge fehlender Kapitalmarktdaten für Investitionen in regenerative Energien sowie durch die Existenz neuer Marktakteure mit eingeschränkter Risikostreuung allerdings mehr und mehr erschwert. Der vorliegende Beitrag beschreibt ein Forschungsvorhaben zur Entwicklung eines modellbasierten Ansatzes, der die veränderten Bedingungen durch den Wandel in der Energiewirtschaft aufgreifen und damit verbundene Problemfelder lösen soll.

Στην παρούσα εργασία περιγράφεται η έννοια του CAPM, πρόκειται για ένα υπόδειγμα αποτίμησης μετοχών. Σκοπός της μελέτης αυτής είναι να παρουσιάσουμε τα βασικά χαρακτηριστικά του υποδείγματος, η κριτική που του έχει ασκηθεί, τα πλεονεκτήματα και τα μειονεκτήματα αυτού. Ουσιαστικά πρόκειται για ένα μοντέλο αποτίμησης το οποίο χρησιμοποιείται για την τιμολόγηση αξιογράφων λαμβάνοντας υπόψη τον κίνδυνο αυτών. Να αναφέρουμε στο σημείο αυτό ότι ο κίνδυνος αποτελείται από δυο επιμέρους συστατικά, τον συστηματικό και τον μη συστηματικό κίνδυνο. Προκειμένου να περιοριστεί ο μη συστηματικός κίνδυνος καλό είναι οι επιχειρήσεις να επενδύουν σε πληθώρα περιουσιακών στοιχείων δηλαδή να έχουν ένα χαρτοφυλάκιο έντονα διαφορποιημένο. Οπότε ο μόνος κίνδυνος που καλείται να αντιμετωπίσει ο επενδυτής είναι ο συστηματικός κίνδυνος. / --

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Dissertação (mestrado)—Universidade de Brasília, Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade e Gestão de Políticas Públicas, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ciências Contábeis, 2017. / Submitted by Raquel Almeida (raquel.df13@gmail.com) on 2018-03-15T20:13:01Z No. of bitstreams: 1 2017_VanessaRodriguesdosSantosCardoso.pdf: 1204775 bytes, checksum: b3244b57ef40e149d2c2d5bba50d6d27 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Raquel Viana (raquelviana@bce.unb.br) on 2018-04-24T20:13:04Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 2017_VanessaRodriguesdosSantosCardoso.pdf: 1204775 bytes, checksum: b3244b57ef40e149d2c2d5bba50d6d27 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-04-24T20:13:04Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 2017_VanessaRodriguesdosSantosCardoso.pdf: 1204775 bytes, checksum: b3244b57ef40e149d2c2d5bba50d6d27 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-04-24 / Os modelos de precificação de ativos são utilizados por investidores como base para a tomada de decisões, pois estimam qual seria o seu retorno em função do risco que estão dispostos a tomar. Embora o CAPM seja o modelo mais utilizado, diversos autores defendem que o seu único fator de risco não captura anomalias existentes na precificação de ativos. Nos últimos anos tem sido crescente o interesse da academia por anomalias, de forma que em 2012 já existiam 313 delas na literatura. Este estudo objetivou investigar se os recentes modelos que consideram anomalias na precificação de ativos ajustam-se satisfatoriamente ao mercado acionário brasileiro. Como objetivo secundário, o estudo também verificou se modelos com anomalias eram superiores ao CAPM quando aplicado ao setor elétrico, pois o modelo é utilizado pela Agência Reguladora para estimar o retorno sobre o capital a ser pago aos investidores pelos consumidores de energia. Para tanto, os modelos de cinco fatores de Fama e French (2015), o de quatro fatores de Hou, Xue e Zhang (2014a) e outro alternativo com seis anomalias foram testados e comparados com o CAPM, por meio de regressões de séries temporais estimadas com dados contábeis e do mercado de ações no período de junho de 2010 a dezembro de 2016. Os resultados demostram que os três modelos com anomalias testados se ajustam satisfatoriamente à variação nos preços dos ativos no Brasil e no setor elétrico. Dentre eles, o de cinco fatores de Fama e French (2015) é superior em termos de poder explicativo no mercado acionário, enquanto o modelo alternativo se mostrou superior ao CAPM no setor elétrico. Especificamente quanto às anomalias, verifica-se que tamanho, valor, investimento, rentabilidade, momento, alavancagem operacional e fricções de mercado possuem relação estatisticamente significante com o retorno dos ativos no mercado brasileiro. Entretanto, os prêmios de risco dessas anomalias foram negativos e/ou estatisticamente não diferentes de zero, indicando que estratégias de investimentos baseadas nesse tipo de risco não foram recompensadas no Brasil no período analisado. / Asset pricing models are used by investors as a basis for decision-making because they estimate how much they would return based on the risk they are willing to take. Although CAPM is the most widely used model, several authors argue that its single risk factor does not capture existing anomalies in asset pricing. In recent years the interest of the academy on anomalies has increased, so that in 2012 313 of them have been already reported in the literature. This study aimed to investigate whether recent models that consider anomalies in asset pricing fits satisfactorily to the Brazilian stock market. As a secondary objective, the study also verified whether models with anomalies were superior to CAPM when applied to the electric sector, since the model is used by the Regulatory Agency to estimate the return on capital to be paid to investors by energy consumers. To do so, the Fama and French (2015) five-factor model, the Hou, Xue and Zhang (2014a) four-factor model and an six-factor alternative model were tested and compared with CAPM, using time series regressions estimated with accounting and stock market data from June 2010 to December 2016. The results showed that the three models with anomalies tested fit satisfactorily in explaining asset price movements in Brazil and its electric industry. Among them, the Fama and French (2015) five-factor is superior in terms of explanatory power in the stock market, while the alternative model proved to be superior to CAPM in the domestic electric industry. Specifically, regarding the anomalies, we find that size, value, investment, profitability, moment, operating leverage and market frictions have a statistically significant relation with asset returns in the Brazilian market. However, the risk premiums for these anomalies are negative and / or statistically nonzero, indicating that investment strategies based on this type of risk are not rewarded in the Brazilian market in the analyzed period.

This study employs widely excepted asset pricing models to test their explanatory power in the context of Istanbul Stock Exchange listed companies between 1990 and 2010. The risk factors, beta, size, book-to-market equity, and momentum are used to form portfolios and their factor loadings are estimated. The results of this study are mostly in line with the previous academic research, and some unique attributes of the return generation mechanism of Istanbul Stock Exchange are reported.

The purpose of this study is to examine a completely new phenomenon called the MIST, by two portfolios: the Goldman Sachs Next 11 equity fund, and the Goldman Sachs BRIC fund, in order to establish whether or not the MIST countries are a better investment decision in terms of risk, return and growth. Furthermore, the study examines in which form these emerging markets lies in terms of market efficiency, and if the random walk theory is present. The opportunities and challenges for Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea and Turkey are also brought upon to determine whether these countries have the potential to exhibit the same success as the BRIC countries did for a decade. Since the growth of the BRIC countries are slowing down, Jim O’Neill, the same founder of the term BRIC, coined the nations MIST. The BRIC countries are facing several difficulties and have led investors to draw out from these countries stocks. Investors that were pouring in money to the BRIC countries during the period 2001-2009, have from 2011, withdrawn 15 billion dollars from the BRIC stocks. Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea and Turkey. Derived from the next eleven countries, these countries have a major effect on the global economy due to their economical and political circumstances. For many investors, the MIST countries that are growing faster than the BRIC are regarded to be the new biggest emerging markets. Investing in BRIC funds are stated to be a disaster today, while on the other hand, the MIST countries are growing and outpacing the BRIC fund. The methodology used was to compare two different portfolios, Goldman Sachs N-11 equity fund in the period 2011-2013 against the Goldman Sachs BRIC fund in two different periods, 2011-2013 and 2006-2008 with S&P 500 as the market index. In addition, a hypothesis test was carried out for this period to observe whether or not to reject the null hypothesis. The results of this study shows that the null hypothesis was rejected and that the N-11 equity fund is a better investment decision, in terms of risk, return and growth today. These emerging markets are under the weak form market efficiency and the random walk theory is present in the N-11 equity fund. This makes the authors’ results more of a speculation than a definite conclusion about the future, as one cannot "beat the market".

Η εργασία έχει ως σκοπό την παρουσίαση του Υποδείγματος Αποτίμησης Περιουσιακών Στοιχείων Capital Asset Pricing Model, CAPM, καθώς και να αξιολογήσει την αποτελεσματικότητά του όταν η ισορροπία της αγοράς διαταράσσεται όπως είναι η περίοδος από το 2007 και μετά για την ελληνική οικονομία. Στη μελέτη μας θα παρουσιάσουμε το υπόδειγμα του CAPM, θα δώσουμε κάποια ιστορικά στοιχεία ως προς την εξέλιξή του, και θα προσπαθήσουμε να ελέγξουμε την ισχύ του ερμηνεύοντας τη συμπεριφορά περιουσιακών στοιχείων που διαπραγματεύονται στο Χρηματιστήριο Αθηνών την περίοδο 2001-2013. Η μελέτη μας γίνεται με την ανάλυση της γραμμικής παλινδρόμησης χρησιμοποιώντας το οικονομετρικό εργαλείο w-views. Τα δεδομένα της έρευνας είναι οι αποδόσεις επιμέρους κλαδικών δεικτών και οι αποδόσεις του γενικού δείκτης, ο οποίος λαμβάνεται ως ο δείκτης τους χαρτοφυλακίου της αγοράς. Ως περιουσιακό στοιχείο χωρίς κίνδυνο θεωρούμε το επιτόκιο τους εξαμηνιαίου εντόκου γραμματίου. Η πρώτη ενότητα της εργασίας έγκειται στο να παρουσιάσουμε το υπόδειγμα και την σχέση του με την αποτελεσματικότητα της αγοράς, αλλά και να δώσουμε πληροφορίες για τα προβλήματα που προκύπτουν από τις παραβιάσεις της απλής γραμμικής παλινδρόμησης. Η δεύτερη ενότητα παρουσιάζει την ιστορία του Χρηματιστηρίου Αξιών Αθηνών προκειμένου να γίνει αντιληπτό το περιβάλλον στο οποίο κινούμαστε και τέλος το τρίτο μέρος αποτελεί το ερευνητικό μέρος της εργασίας, στο οποίο παρουσιάζεται ο τρόπος συλλογής δεδομένων, η έρευνα και τα αποτελέσματά της. / This paper aims to present the Capital Asset Pricing Model - CAPM, as well as to evaluate its effectiveness in periods when market balance is disturbed as the years from 2007 to 2013 for the Greek economy. In our study we will present CAPM, provide some historical data, and try to check the efficiency by interpreting the bahanior of asset traded on the Athens Stoch Exchange in the period from 2001 to 2013. Our study uses linear regression analysis and the econometric tool e-views.Our data are the yields of individual sectoral indices and the yields of the General Index, which is taken as the indicator of the market portfolio. As an asset without risk we consider the 6-months Treasury Bill rate. The fisrt unity of this paper is to present the model and it's relationship with the efficiency of the market. The second section presents the history of the Athens Stock Exchange in order to understand the enviroment in which we move and finally the third part is the research part, in which we present data collection, research and results. From the results we come to the conclusio that the theory of CAPM is not in effect for the particular sectors of this period.

This thesis presents an empirical investigation into the Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT). At the onset of the thesis it is recognised that tests of the APT are conditional on a number of preconditions and assumptions. The first line of investigation examines the effect of the assumed nature of the form of the return generating process of stocks. It is found that stocks follow an approximate factor structure and tests of the APT are sensitive to the specified form of the return generating process. We provide an efficient estimation methodology for the case when stocks follow an approximate factor structure. The second issue we raise is that of the appropriate factors, the role of the market portfolio and the performance of the APT against the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). The conclusions that we draw are that the APT is robust to a number of specified alternatives and furthermore, the APT outperforms the CAPM in comparative tests. In addition, within the APT specification there is a role for the market portfolio. Through a comparison of the results in chapters 2 and 3 it is evident that the APT is not robust to the specification of unexpected components. We evaluate the validity of extant techniques in this respect and find that they are unlikely to be representative of agents actual unexpected components. Consequently we put forth an alternative methodology based upon estimating expectations from a learning scheme. This technique is valid in respect to our prior assumptions. Having addressed these preconditions and assumptions that arise in tests of the APT a thorough investigation into the empirical content of the APT is then undertaken. Concentrating on the issues that the return generating process must be unique and that the estimated risk premia should be stable overtime the results indicate that the APT does have empirical content. Finally, armed with the empirically valid APT we proceed to analyse the issue of seasonalities in stock returns. The results confirm previous findings that there are seasonal patterns in the UK stock market, however, unlike previous findings we show that these seasonal patterns are part of the risk return structure and can be explained by the yearly business cycle. Furthermore, the APT retains empirical content when these seasonal patterns are removed from the data. The overall finding of this thesis is that the APT does have empirical content and provides a good description of the return generating process of UK stocks.

Yes / This paper examines the role of institutional investor sentiment in determination of the beta-return relation. Empirical evidence documents a positive (negative) beta-return relation over bearish (bullish) periods, implying that institutional investors can also be sentiment traders.

This essay will compare the capital asset pricing model (CAPM), Fama and French threefactor model and Carhart´s four-factor model, to see which of these models that can explain portfolio excess returns best on the Swedish stock market. This thesis will tempt to validate the three and four-factor models because of the limited amount of research done on the Swedish stock market. The results indicate that the three-factor model improves explanatory power for portfolio returns in comparison to the CAPM, and the four-factor model gives a small improvement in the explanatory power compared to the three-factor model. The results also indicate that all models have a low explanatory power when the market is volatile.