En Europe, la présence de grands carnivores dans des paysages anthropisés entraîne une forte compétition avec l'homme et alimente d'importantes polémiques concernant leur protection légale. La perception antagoniste de ces espèces à la fois emblématiques pour certains et sources de conflits pour d'autres, rend la gestion de leurs populations très délicate. Depuis la recolonisation spontanée du loup (Canis lupus) dans les Alpes françaises au début des années 1990, la population s'est accrue numériquement et spatialement. Parallèlement, les dégâts occasionnés par le loup sur la filière élevage ont suivi la même tendance. L'Etat met en place aujourd'hui un contrôle raisonné de la population, sous réserve que les objectifs de conservation, exigés par la Directive Habitat, soient respectés. En s'inspirant du cas d'étude du loup en France, nous proposons dans cette thèse un cadre de prise de décision structurée adapté pour la gestion et la conservation d'espèces rares et difficilement observables, protégées par des accords législatifs mais qui, dans un contexte social conflictuel, peuvent être régulées. La modélisation séquentielle du processus décisionnel s'est déroulée dans un contexte de forte incertitude selon plusieurs étapes : 1) appréhender les objectifs de conservation et/ou contrôle du loup en France pour les formaliser sous forme mathématique via une fonction d'utilité, 2) suivre la population par une méthode non-invasive pour définir des indicateurs de gestion fiables et évaluer le statut de conservation de la population, 3) coupler les mesures létales adoptées actuellement à un modèle démographique décrivant la dynamique du loup et intégrant sa structure sociale, 4) et déterminer la décision. Cette dernière étape est réalisée à l'aide d'une méthode d'optimisation qui calcule la stratégie optimale de gestion en fonction de la structure sociale de la population et des différentes sources d'incertitude accumulées à chaque étape du processus décisionnel. Nous avons choisi comme indicateur de gestion le taux de croissance, à partir duquel nous avons défini l'utilité. Cet indicateur était robuste à l'incertitude d'échantillonnage émergeant de la détection partielle et hétérogène des individus. Des analyses de sensibilité de la décision ont montré une forte influence de la fonction d'utilité sur la stratégie optimale, soulignant ainsi l'importance de définir correctement les objectifs. Nous avons également montré que la stratégie optimale était sensible aux variations des paramètres démographiques, montrant ainsi l'intérêt des méthodes de capture-marquage-recapture pour les estimer correctement. Nous discutons enfin de l'extension de notre approche à un cadre décisionnel de gestion adaptative pour traiter des problèmes de conservation dans un contexte conflictuel. / Large carnivore management in Europe is controversial because of conflictive objectives arising from the legal protection of threatened species vs. the possible necessity of culling individuals to prevent severe damages on human activities. Since the wolf recovery in the French Alps in the early 90's, the population has been numerically and spatially increasing. In parallel, livestock depredations have been following the same trend. As an EU member state, France is bound to the European Habitat Directive, which provides full protection of wolf populations and their habitat. Nevertheless, derogatory killings are allowed for individuals causing problems on livestock and some lethal control is now incorporated into the national management plan, as long as the population growth and its distribution range are not being threatened. Illustrating with the case study of the wolf in France, my dissertation proposes a structured decision making framework for the management and the conservation of elusive species that are legally protected but, in a conflictive context, are subject to population control. The sequential modeling of our decision process occurred in the following steps: 1) define the multiple objectives and formulate them in terms of a utility function, 2) monitor the population through a non-invasive approach in order to define the population conservation status, 3) build a demographic model to predict the consequences of harvesting on population dynamics and social structure, 4) obtain optimal state-dependent decisions. The last step is done with stochastic dynamic programming (SDP), acknowledged to be one of the most useful optimization methods in decision making. We provide an optimal solution for wolf management that gives the highest chance of meeting objectives, defined on population growth rate. This demographic indicator was found to be robust to sampling uncertainty arising from partial and heterogeneous detection of individuals. We ran decision sensibility analyses and found a strong effect of the utility function on the optimal strategy, highlighting the importance of defining explicit objectives. We also found that the optimal strategy was sensitive to demographic parameters, which demonstrate the general need of using solid statistical approaches to estimate them properly. This structured decision making framework can further be extended to adaptive management, acknowledged as being a convenient framework for wildlife management.

La perte d’habitat et la fragmentation sont les principales causes de déclin des amphibiens en Europe de l’ouest. Malgré les réglementations mises en place concernant la construction de nouvelles infrastructures, le manque de connaissances fondamentales concernant les espèces et leurs habitats rendent difficiles l’évaluation des impacts ainsi que la mise en place de solutions efficaces pour conserver la biodiversité. En se basant sur l’exemple du triton marbré (Triturus marmoratus), espèce protégée présente dans l’ouest de la France, ce travail vise à évaluer la pertinence des méthodes de terrain et de modélisation disponibles pour la récolte des données nécessaires à la caractérisation de la dynamique des populations chez cette espèce. Pour ce faire, deux populations de tritons marbrés (Loire Atlantique et Vendée) ont été étudiées grâce à des techniques de comptages à la lampe, piégeage, utilisation d’épuisettes avec un suivi intensif par capture-marquage-recapture (CMR), complété par la méthode de l’ADN environnemental (ADNe). Dans une première partie ce travail a permis de montrer que dans le cadre de la caractérisation quantitative de la dynamique d’une population, les informations apportées par la CMR sont les plus fiables. Ceci est notamment dû au taux de détection faible et hétérogène dans l’espace et dans le temps du triton marbré, qui ne permet pas aux autres méthodes s’en affranchissant de produire des résultats reproductibles et transposables. L’ADNe est la méthode permettant d’estimer l’occurrence le plus efficacement mais la possibilité d’une utilisation pour estimer des abondances absolues voire des abondances relatives reste du domaine des perspectives prometteuses mais non abouties à ce jour. Dans un second chapitre, nous avons montré comment les récentes avancées méthodologiques dans les approches de modélisation permettent de déterminer le temps passé par une espèce sur un site grâce aux données de CMR. Ces méthodes ont été appliquées au triton marbré pour mettre en évidence une phénologie particulière avec des individus arrivant et repartant du site de reproduction de manière non simultanée et n’occupant chacun la mare qu’une partie de la période de reproduction. L’ensemble de ces résultats permettent de définir un cadre méthodologique adapté pour développer un suivi dans le temps des mesures de compensation envisagées dans le cadre du projet de construction, mais aussi pour le suivi des populations d’urodèles en général. / Habitat loss and fragmentation are the main causes of amphibian decline in Western Europe. In spite of regulations concerning the construction of new infrastructures, the lack of knowledge concerning species and their habitat make difficult to evaluate the impact as well as the implementation of effective solutions to preserve biodiversity. Using the example of marbled newt (Triturus marmoratus), a protected species presents in Western France, this works aims at estimating the relevance of the fieldwork and modeling methods available to obtain data necessary for characterizing the dynamic of population for this species. To do so, two populations of marbled newts (situated in Loire Atlantique and Vendée) were studied using torch counts, traps, dip nets, with an intensive capture recapture (CR) protocol, and environmental DNA (eDNA) method. In the first part, this work allowed us to show that within the framework of quantitative characterization of the dynamics of a population, the information gathered by CR is the most reliable. This is especially due to the low and heterogeneous detection rate in space and time for marbled newt, which does not allow traditional methods to get reproducible and transposable results. eDNA is the most accurate method when it comes to estimating occurence but the possibility to use it to estimate absolute or even relative abundances stays a promising perspective that did not succeed yet. In a second chapter, we showed how recent methodological advances in modeling approaches allow estimating time spent by a species in a site thanks to CR data. These methods were applied to marbled newts to highlight a particular phenology, with arriving and leaving individuals being not simultaneous but progressive and each individual occupying the pond only for a part of the breeding season. These results allows to define a methodological frame adapted to develop long term studies of compensation measures within the framework of the construction project, but also more generally for future studies of urodele species.

les insectes saproxylophages forment une part importante de la biodiversité des forêts tempérées et jouent un rôle biogéochimique fondamental en participant à la dégradation du bois mort. Le complexe saproxylique européen est aujourd'hui perturbé par les modifications anthropiques des forêts. De nombreuses espèces de ce complexe sont menacées de disparition et leur conservation nécessite de connaître les causes de leur vulnérabilité. Nous avons étudié l'écologie d'un coléoptère saproxylophage cavicole, Osmoderma eremita, espèce qui se raréfie à l'échelle de son aire de distribution et présente de faibles capacités de dispersion. Nous avons suivi ses populations par capture-recapture et pistage-radio. Des mesures complémentaires ont été réalisées au laboratoire (manège de vol). Nos objectifs étaient d'expliquer la distribution de l'espèce dans un bocage, d'étudier ses capacités de dispersion et d'analyser ses autres caractéristiques démographiques. Nous avons révélé l'influence de l'ouverture du paysage et de la densité de microhabitats sur la présence de l'espèce, avec une préférence pour les zones ayant subi la plus faible perte d'habitat en 60 ans. Nous avons mesuré des capacités de dispersion trois fois supérieures à celles alors relevées in natura. Les capacités des femelles étaient liées à leur condition. Les analyses démographiques ont révélé des sex-ratios biaisées en fonction de la population et de l'année. Nous avons démontré le rôle du sexe dans la démographie de l'espèce, facteur qui devrait intervenir dans les analyses de viabilité. De telles analyses permettent de proposer des mesures de conservation d'O. eremita adaptables à d'autres espèces saproxylophages.

Infectious diseases are increasingly being recognised as significant threatening processes in conservation biology. Developing strategies to effectively manage infectious diseases in wildlife is, therefore, of the utmost importance to the maintenance of global biodiversity. The effective management of infectious diseases relies on understanding the ecology of the host, the epidemiological characteristics of the pathogen and the impacts of the pathogen on the host population. However, for most wildlife-disease systems this information remains poorly understood. This is particularly true for endangered species threatened by novel infectious agents as opportunities to observe and assess disease impacts and host-pathogen dynamics in the wild are limited. The Tasmanian devil (Sarcophilus harrisii), the world’s largest carnivorous marsupial, is threatened with extinction as a result of an epidemic of an emerging disease, a fatal infectious cancer known as Devil Facial Tumour Disease (DFTD). In this thesis I capitalised on a unique dataset from a population of Tasmanian devils where disease arrived part-way through an intensive longitudinal study, and utilised existing genetic samples collected prior to DFTD outbreak, to determine the impact of DFTD on the demography, population dynamics, genetic diversity and population genetic structure of wild Tasmanian devils. I then used this knowledge of the impacts of DFTD impacts in an unmanaged population to evaluate the effectiveness of a disease management trial involving the selective culling of infected individuals. I employed mark-recapture models to investigate the impact of DFTD on age-specific and sex-specific apparent survival rates, to examine the pattern of variation in infection rates (force of infection), and to investigate the impact of DFTD on population growth rate. I investigated demography, life-history traits and morphometric parameters of infected and uninfected individuals to determine the impacts of DFTD on age-structure and sex-structure, female fecundity and individual growth rates. I used this information to assess the population’s ability to respond to low population densities and to compensate for the detrimental impacts of DFTD. To determine the genetic consequences of disease-induced population decline I used microsatellite DNA to compare genetic diversity, population genetic structure and dispersal patterns in three Tasmanian devil populations prior to and following DFTD outbreaks. Capture-mark-recapture analyses revealed that the arrival of DFTD triggered an immediate decline in apparent survival rates of devils, the rate of which was predicted well by the increase in disease prevalence in the population over time. Transition rates of healthy individuals to the diseased class (the force of infection) increased in relation to disease prevalence, while the arrival of DFTD coincided with a marked and ongoing decline in the population growth rate. There was a significant change to the age structure following the arrival of DFTD. This shift to a younger population was caused by the loss of older individuals as a direct consequence of DFTD-driven declines in adult survival rates. Evidence of reproductive compensation in response to these disease impacts was observed via a reduction in the age of sexual maturity of females over time. However, widespread precocial breeding in devils was precluded by physiological and ecological constraints that limited the ability of one year olds to breed. Using temporally-replicated spatial genetic data, I found evidence of increased inbreeding following DFTD arrival and greater population genetic differentiation in post-disease populations. These changes appeared to be driven by a combination of selection and altered dispersal patterns of females in DFTD-affected populations. Comparison of demographic and epidemiological parameters indicative of disease progression and impact between the managed and unmanaged populations revealed that selective culling of infected individuals neither slowed the rate of disease progression nor reduced the population level impacts of this debilitating disease; with culling mortality simply compensating for disease mortality. This thesis provides one of the few direct empirical evaluations of the impact of an emerging wildlife disease epidemic on a wild population. This thesis revealed that infectious diseases can result in major demographic and genetic changes in host populations over relatively few generations and short time-scales. Results showing dramatic and ongoing population declines and very limited population compensation in DFTD-affected populations indicate that DFTD poses a significant extinction risk for wild devil populations. Hence, this study confirms that host-specific pathogens can pose a significant extinction risk for wild species, even in the absence of alternate reservoir hosts, a finding critical to our understanding of host-pathogen dynamics. My thesis also highlights the potential negative interplay between disease susceptibility and host genetic variability, which is of utmost importance to the management of novel wildlife epizootics and the conservation of threatened wildlife in general. The thorough understanding of the ecology and impacts of DFTD in the wild obtained in this study has provided a solid base from which to both rigorously assess the outcome of management strategies and also formulate recommendations for the management of this disease in the wild. The lack of evidence for successful control of the DFTD epidemic in a wild population during the first phase of a selective culling experimental adaptive management approach, points to the need to implement a multi-faceted disease management program when attempting to control a novel infectious disease in the wild. By drawing on the lessons learnt in this case study I show that it is possible to establish a set of general guidelines for the future management of infectious diseases in threatened wildlife.

La dispersion est définie comme le mouvement fait par un individu entre son lieu de naissance et le site de sa première reproduction (dispersion natale) ou entre deux sites de reproduction successifs (dispersion de reproduction). Il possède de nombreuses causes (proximales et ultimes) et conséquences (fitness, etc.), peu étudiées à des échelles spatiotemporelles larges. Cette thèse souligne le rôle de la densité, du climat, et des populations considérées, avec une approche dynamique des échanges et un rôle de la migration, sur la dispersion de la Cigogne blanche (Ciconia ciconia) en France. La dispersion influence la survie et la reproduction chez le Cincle plongeur (Cinclus cinclus) et est héritable, ce qui souligne le processus évolutif sous-jacent à l’apparition de ce comportement. Ces travaux recontextualisent le rôle de l’environnement sur la dispersion à une échelle inter-populationnelle, en soulignant les liens avec la migration, ainsi que le contexte évolutif de ce trait. / Dispersal is defined as the movement made by an individual between his birthplace and the site of his first breeding attempt (natal dispersal) or between successive breeding sites (breeding dispersal). It has many causes (proximate and ultimate) and consequences (fitness, etc.), rarely studied in large spatial and temporal scales. This thesis emphasizes the role of density, climate, and populations, with a dynamic approach and the role of migration, on the dispersal of the White Stork (Ciconia ciconia) in France. Dispersal influences survival and reproduction in the White-throated Dipper (Cinclus cinclus) and is heritable, highlighting the underlying evolutionary process of this behavior. This work recontextualized the role of the environment on the dispersal in an inter-population level, as long as the links with migration and the evolutionary context of this trait.

Pour comprendre l'origine des variations d'histoire de vie des organismes, il fautétudier et mettre en évidence les stratégies d'histoire de vie et les processus évolutifsqui les gouvernent. Ce travail de thèse a pour objectif d'étudier les stratégiesd'histoire de vie et leur conditionnement par les caractéristiques individuellesen conditions naturelles. Les stratégies d'histoire de vie sont vues comme un agencementde normes de réactions et de compromis évolutifs. Cependant, l'étude desprocessus évolutifs en milieu naturel se heurte à des problèmes d'ordre méthodologique.En effet, le suivi exhaustif au cours du temps d'individus d'une populationest difficilement réalisable, voire impossible en conditions naturelles. Les méthodesde capture-marquage-recapture permettent une observation partielle des histoires devie et des traits d'histoire de vie. Ce travail se base sur l'idée que nos observationsne sont que la partie visible de processus sous-jacents qu'il est nécessaire de prendreen compte pour ne pas biaiser nos inférences statistiques. J'utilise la modélisation àstructure cachée pour 1) séparer le processus d'observation du processus dynamiqued'intérêt, 2) modéliser les histoires de vie complètes des individus, 3) intégrer dansun cadre unique et cohérent les décisions d'histoire de vie et les compromis évolutifset 4) représenter explicitement les mécanismes sous-jacents qui génèrent nos observations.Dans ce cadre, on peut alors intégrer les théories et concepts de la biologieévolutive dans l'analyse statistique des données d'observations. J'illustre ce travailpar l'étude du conditionnement des stratégies d'histoire de vie dans une populationnaturelle de saumon Atlantique sur le Scorff (Morbihan) à partir de données de CMR.Mes résultats mettent en évidence des décisions d'histoire de vie statut-dépendanteset des compromis évolutifs qui n'auraient pas pu être mis en évidence hors du cadrede modélisation proposé. / Understanding the origin of life history variations of organisms requires studying life historystrategies and evolutionary processes that drive them. This thesis aims at studying life historystrategies under natural conditions and how they are conditioned by individual characteristics.Life history strategies are seen as a combination of reaction norms and evolutionarytrade-offs. The study of evolutionary processes in the wild faces to methodological issues.Indeed, the exhaustive monitoring of individuals over time is often impossible in the wild.Capture-mark-recapture methods allow a partial observation of life histories and life historytraits. This work was based on the idea that our observations are only the visible part ofunderlying processes that need to be accounted for to limit the risk of flawed statistical inferences.I resort to hidden structure modeling to 1) separate the observation process fromthe dynamic process of interest, 2) model the full life histories of individuals, 3) integratewithin a single and coherent framework life history decisions and evolutionary trade-offs and4) explicitly represent the underlying mechanisms that generate our observations. Withinthis framework, one can confront theories and concepts in evolutionary biology with observationaldata through appropriate statistical tools. Finally, I illustrate this work by studying theconditioning of life-history strategies in a natural population of Atlantic salmon on the Scorffriver (Morbihan) using CMR data. My results highlight status-dependent life history decisionsand evolutionary trade-offs that could not be identified without our proposed modelingframework.

Prior to European settlement, black bear (Ursus americanus) were far less abundant in the state of California. Estimates from statewide harvest data indicate the California black bear population has tripled in the last 3 decades. Bears inhabit areas they formally never occurred (e.g., urban environments) and populations that were at historically low densities are now at high densities. Though harvest data are useful and widely used as an index for black bear population size and population demographics statewide, it lacks the ability to produce precise estimates of abundance and density at local scales or account for the numerous bears living in non-hunted areas. As the human population continues to expand into wildlife habitat, we are being forced to confront controversial issues about wildlife management and conservation. Habituated bears living in non-hunted, urban areas have been and continue to be a major concern for wildlife managers and the general public. My objective was to develop DNA-based capture-mark-recapture (CMR) survey techniques in wildland and urban environments in Mono County, California to acquire population size and density at local scales from 2010 to 2012. I also compared population density between the urban and wildland environment. To my knowledge, DNA-based CMR surveys for bears have only been implemented in wildland or rural environments. I made numerous modifications to the techniques used during wildland DNA-based CMR surveys to survey bears in an urban environment. I used a higher density of hair-snares than typically used in wildland studies, non-consumable lures, modified hair-snares for public safety, included the public throughout the entire process, and surveyed in the urban-wildland interface as well as the city center. These methods were efficient and accurate while maintaining human safety. I determined that there is likely a difference in population density between the urban and wildland environments. Population density was 1.6 to 2.5 times higher in the urban study area compared to the wildland study area. Considering the negative impacts urban environments can have on wildland bear populations, this is a serious management concern. The densities I found were similar to those found in other urban and wildland black bear populations. The baseline data acquired from this study can be used as part of a long-term monitoring effort. By surveying additional years, population vital rates such as apparent survival, recruitment, movement, and finite rate of population change can be estimated.

Une question fondamentale en écologie des populations est l’identification des facteurs influençant la dynamique d’une population. L’objectif principal de cette thèse est de déterminer quelles sont les réponses démographiques et populationnelles de prédateurs marins supérieurs face aux fluctuations d’abondance de leurs proies, aux variations climatiques, à la densité-dépendance tout en tenant compte de l’hétérogénéité inter et intra-individuelle (âge, expérience, sexe, qualité ou stratégie). Pour ce faire, nous nous baserons sur l’analyse de suivis à long-terme individuels et populationnels d’oiseaux marins longévifs et prédateurs apicaux phylogénétiquement très proches dans deux biomes contrastés : le labbe de McCormick Catharacta maccormicki sur l’archipel de Pointe Géologie en Antarctique et le labbe subantarctique Catharacta lonnbergi sur l’archipel des Kerguelen en milieu subantarctique. Nous tirerons parti d’estimations d’abondances de leurs proies respectives : le manchot Adélie Pygoscelis adeliae et le manchot empereur Aptenodytes forsteri en Antarctique, et le pétrel bleu Halobaena caerulea et le prion de Belcher Pachyptila belcheri à Kerguelen. Ces jeux de données offrent une opportunité unique de pouvoir déterminer et quantifier simultanément les différentes sources de variabilité dans les changements de taille de populations naturelles occupant l’un des niveaux trophiques les plus élevés des réseaux alimentaires antarctiques et subantarctiques. Nous avons mis en évidence de la variation dans plusieurs traits vitaux des deux populations influencées par les performances des individus et de l’hétérogénéité individuelle latente. Nous discutons des mécanismes par lesquels la variabilité climatique, l’abondance de proie et la densité de population peuvent affecter différentiellement les différentes classes d’âges de chaque trait vital, et les conséquences potentielles de futurs changements environnementaux. / A fundamental endeavor in population ecology is to identify the drivers of population dynamics. The main objective of this thesis is to determine what are the demographic and population responses of superior marine predators to the fluctuations of their prey abundance, to climatic variations, to density-dependence while taking into account inter and intra individual heterogeneity (age, experience, sex, quality or strategy). To do this, we analysed long-term individual and population-based monitoring of long-lived seabirds and phylogenetically close apical predators in two contrasting biomes: the south polar skua Catharacta maccormicki at Pointe Géologie archipelago, Antarctica, and the brown skua Catharacta lonnbergi on the sub-Antarctic Kerguelen Archipelago. We will use direct abundance of their respective prey: Adélie penguin Pygoscelis adeliae and emperor penguin Aptenodytes forsteri in Antarctica, and the blue petrel Halobaena caerulea and the thin-billed prion Pachyptila belcheri prion in Kerguelen islands. These datasets provide a unique opportunity to simultaneously disentangle and quantify the different sources of variability driving variation in natural populations occupying one of the highest trophic levels of the Antarctic and sub-Antarctic food webs. We found variation in several vital traits of both populations influenced by individual performance and latent individual heterogeneity. We discuss the mechanisms by which climatic variability, prey abundance, and population density can differentially affect the different age classes of each age class, and the potential consequences of future environmental changes.

The evolution of extra-group paternity (EGP) is a contentious issue in evolutionary biology. This thesis examines the factors and adaptive benefits driving EGP in a high-density, group-living population of European badgers (Meles meles). To improve power to assign parentage, I isolated and characterised 21 new polymorphic microsatellite markers. I genotyped 83% of 1410 badger trapped 1987‒2010 using 35 autosomal microsatellite markers. Maternity and paternity were assigned at 80% confidence ca. 82% of individuals. 48% of paternities were extra-group, where 85% were attributable to neighbouring-group males and EGP was detected in 47% of litters; thus badger social group do not correspond with a breeding unit. I tested whether indirect genetic benefits explain these high EGP rates. (1) ‘Good-gene-as-heterozygosity Hypothesis’: Paternal heterozygosity, but not maternal or an individual’s own heterozygosity, associated positively with first-year survival probability. Under benign environmental conditions, cubs fathered by more heterozygous males had a higher first year survival probability. Despite this correlation, the EGP rate per litter correlated with neither average nor maximum within-group heterozygosity of candidate fathers. (2) Fitness benefit Hypothesis: Extra-group offspring (EGO) had lower first-year survival probability and lived 1.3 years less than within-group offspring (WGO). Female WGO produced more litters and offspring over their lifetime than female EGO, whereas male EGO produced more offspring than male WGO. (3) Inbreeding avoidance hypothesis: The EGP rate within a litter increased with greater average pair-wise relatedness between mothers and within-group candidate fathers. No inbreeding depression on first-year survival probability was detected, but small sample sizes limited statistical power. Socio-ecologically, at the litter level, EGP correlated negatively with the number of within-group candidate fathers, and positively with neighbouring-group candidate fathers. In conclusion, EGP in badgers may reduce inbreeding and be maintained in the population through a sex-specific antagonistic selection and indirect genetic benefits may occur when the total fitness benefits of producing extra-group sons outweigh the costs of producing extra-group daughters. These indirect genetic benefits only partially explain the evolution of promiscuity in European badgers, highlighting that evolutionary factors underlying promiscuity remain unclear.

New analytical and technological tools have the potential to yield unprecedented insights into the life histories of migratory species. I used Bayesian population models and Global Positioning System-acceleration tracking devices to understand the demographic mechanism and likely drivers underpinning the Greenland White-fronted Goose (Anser albifrons flavirostris) population decline. I used a 27-year capture-mark-recapture dataset from the main wintering site for these birds (Wexford, Ireland) to construct multistate models that estimated age- and sex-specific survival and movement probabilities and found no sex-bias in emigration or ‘remigration’ rates (chapter 2). These formed the foundation for an integrated population model, which included population size and productivity data to assess source-sink dynamics through estimation of age-, site-, and year-specific survival and movement probabilities, the results of which suggest that Wexford is a large sink and that a reduction in productivity (measured as recruitment rate) is the proximate demographic mechanism behind the population decline (chapter 3). Low productivity may be due to environmental conditions on breeding areas in west Greenland, whereby birds bred at youngest ages when conditions were favourable during adulthood and the breeding year (chapter 4), and possibly mediated by links with the social system, as birds remained with parents into adulthood, forfeiting immediate reproductive success, although a cost-benefit model showed the ‘leave’ strategy was marginally favoured over the ‘stay’ strategy at all ages (chapter 5). Foraging during spring does not appear to limit breeding, as breeding and non-breeding birds did not differ in their proportion of time feeding or energy expenditure (chapter 6). Two successful breeding birds were the only tagged individuals (of 15) to even attempt to nest, suggesting low breeding propensity has contributed to low productivity. Although birds wintering in Ireland migrated further to breeding areas than those wintering in Scotland, there were no differences in feeding between groups during spring migration (chapter 7). These findings suggest that Greenland White-fronted Geese are not limited until arrival on breeding areas and the increasingly poor environmental conditions there (chapter 8). More broadly, these findings demonstrate the application of novel tools to diagnose the cause of population decline.