Background: While substantial progress has been made globally towards achieving United Nations Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) on child mortality, the decline is not sufficient to reach the targets set for 2015. The South Asian region, which includes India, was to achieve the MDG 4 target of 39 deaths per 1000 live births by 2015 but was estimated to have reached only 61 by 2011. A part of this under-achievement is due to the gender-differentials in child mortality in South-Asia. The inherent biological advantage of girls, reflected inlower mortality rates as compared to boys globally, is neutralized by their sociocultural disadvantage in India. The availability of technology for prenatal sex determination has promoted sex-linked abortions. Current government efforts include a law that regulates the use of ultrasound and other diagnostic techniquesfor prenatal testing of sex and a conditional cash transfer (CCT) scheme thatinvests a certain amount of funds at the birth of a girl child to attain maturity when the girl turns 18 years of age. This thesis describes the trends in genderspecific mortality during the period 1992-2011 and gender differentials in causes of death among children (paper I), compares gender differentials in child survivalby socio-economic status of the family (paper II), explores the contribution of non-specific effects of diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis (DTP) vaccination to the excess mortality among girls (paper III), and evaluates the impact of CCT schemes of the government and explores community attitudes and practices related to discrimination of girls (paper IV). Methods and Results: This study is set in Ballabgarh Health and DemographicSurveillance System (HDSS) of Haryana State in North India that covered a population of 88,861 across 28 villages in 2011. This study uses the electronic database that houses all individuals enumerated in the HDSS for the period 1992-2011 along with other demographic, socio-economic and health utilization variables. Sex ratio at birth (SRB) was adverse for girls throughout the study period, varying between 821 to 866 girls per 1000 boys. Overall, under-five mortality rates during the period 1992-2011 remained stagnant due to the increasing neonatal mortality rate and decreasing mortality in subsequent age groups. Mortality rates among girls were 1.6 to 2 times higher than boys during the post-neonatal period (1-11 months) as well as in the 1-4 year age group. Girls reported significantly higher mortality rates due to prematurity (relative risk of 1.52; 95% CI = 1.01-2.29); diarrhoea (2.29;1.59-3.29), and malnutrition (3.37; 2.05-5.53) during 2002-2007. The SRB and neonatal mortality rate were consistently adverse for girls in the advantaged groups. In the 1-36 month age group, girl children had higher mortality than boys in all SES groups. The age at vaccination for and coverage with ivabstractBacillus Calmette–Guérin, DTP, polio and measles vaccines did not differ by sex. There was significant excess mortality among girls as compared to boys in the period after immunization with DTP, for both primary (hazard ratio of 1.65; 95% CI 1.17-2.32) and DTPb (2.21; 1.24-3.93) vaccinations until the receipt of the next vaccine. No significant excess mortality among girls was noted after exposure to BCG (1.06; 0.67-1.67) or measles (1.34; 0.85-2.12) vaccine. A community survey showed poor awareness of specific government schemes for girl children. Four-fifths of the community wanted government to help families with girl children financially. In-depth interviews of government programme implementers revealed the themes of “conspiracy of silence” that was being maintained by general population, underplaying of the pervasiveness of the problem coupled with a passive implementation of the programme and “a clash between politicians trying to cash in on the public sentiment of need for subsidies for girl children and a bureaucratic approachof accountability which imposed lot of conditionalities and documentations to access these benefits”. While there has been some improvement in investment in girl children for immunization and education during the period 1992 to 2010, these were also seen among boys of the same houses and daughters in-laws who come from outside the state where such schemes are not in place. Conclusions: In the study area, girl children continue to be disadvantaged a tall periods in their childhood including in utero. In the short run, empowerment of individuals by education and increasing wealth without a concomitant change in culture of son-preference is harmful as it promotes the use of sex determination technology and female feticide to achieve desired family size and composition. There is a need to carefully review the use of health-enhancing technologies including vaccines so that they do not cause more harm to society. Current government efforts to address the gender imbalance are not working, as these are not rooted in a larger social context.

O programa de transferencia de renda Bolsa Familia e um importante pilar da seguri- dade social brasileira, mas ha um senso comum de que as transferencias do programa incentivam casais beneficiarios a terem mais filhos. Utilizando base de dados do governo federal (Cadunico e Caixa) e valendo-se dos criterios de eligibilidade, prop6e-se uma ine- dita analise quase experimental para estudar os efeitos das transferencias nao condicionais (UCT) e das condicionais (CCT) sobre a fecundidade das beneficiarias entre os anos de 2011 a 2015, atraves de uma regressao descontinua fuzzy. Problemas de medida associa- dos a base (e.g.: manipulacao, arredondamento, atrito) sao remediados com a estimacao nao parametrica proposta por Gerard, Rokkanen & Rothe (2016), em que se determina limites superiores e inferiores aos efeitos de tratamento. Por um lado, nao ha evidencia de que o componente CCT afete a fecundidade das beneficiarias, mas por outro, o com- ponente mais flexivel do Bolsa Familia, o UCT, possivelmente reduziu a fecundidade das beneficiarias mais pobres, sobretudo no Nordeste. Tais resultados sao contraintuitivos em relacao a literatura te6rica ate entao, mas em linha com a grande maioria dos resultados encontrados em programas similares da America Latina. / The Brazilian cash transfer program Balsa Familia is a very, if not the most, important pil- lar of Brazil\'s welfare system. However, there is a common sense that the program\'s trans- fers incentive beneficiary couples to have more children. Using federal data (Cadunico and Caixa databases) and the eligibility rules for the program, I propose a quasi-experimental approach to verify both unconditional (UCT) and conditional transfers (CCT) on the beneficiaries\' fertility rates between 2011 and 2015, through a fuzzy regression disconti- nuity approach. Measure problems associated with the data (e.g.: manipulation, heaping, attriton), are solved using a non parametric estimation proposed by Gerard, Rokkanen & Rothe (2016), which determines lower and upper bounds for treatment effects. On one hand, there is no evidence that the CCT component affects the beneficiaries\' fertility rates, but on another, the more flexible component of Bolsa Familia, UCT, possibly reduced the fertility rates for the most poor. Those results are counter intuitive with the theoretical literature so far, but in line with the majority of other studies analyzing similar transfer programs in Latin America.

This study examines the relationship between reception of remittances and CCT participation. Three hypotheses, predicting a negative relationship between remittances and CCTs, are presented. These are tested by logit regressions based on data from national household surveys from four Latin American countries. The study finds some support for a negative correlation between remittances and CCT participation, but lack of data restricts the possibility of drawing firm conclusions from the study.

Magister Artium (Development Studies) - MA(DVS) / Cash transfers, integral in social protection, have increasingly been viewed as a viable measure of promoting human development outcomes in low and middle income countries in the face of persistent poverty exacerbated by the HIV/AIDS pandemic. Sub-Saharan Africa has been the worst hit by the HIV/AIDS pandemic with almost two thirds of the world’s HIV/AIDS patients living in the region. By 2005, 12 million children were orphaned by the disease while 2 million more below 15 years of age were estimated to be infected (UNICEF, 2005:2). To address the plight of orphans and vulnerable children in Kenya the government together with various international development agencies launched the Cash Transfer Programme for Orphans and Vulnerable Children (CT-OVC) in 2004 to provide for the basic needs of OVC and promote their human development. With the capability approach as its theoretical framework, this research seeks to determine the value attached by recipients of the CT-OVC to capabilities in the four broad dimensions of social life, health, education and play. It also seeks to gauge the extent of attainment of functionings in the four dimensions, and the association between participation in the programme and one’s functionings in the key dimensions. The research is conducted through a quasi-experimental design which compares recipients of the cash transfer to non-recipients and mixed methods are used to collect and analyse data. Results show that OVC consider capabilities in the dimensions of social life, education, health and play to be of high value in their lives. Children in the recipient group appear to have attained functionings in the four dimensions to a higher degree than their counterparts in the comparison group. There is also an association between participation in the CT-OVC programme and attainment of functionings in all four dimensions. Perceptions from participants explore further opportunities created or expanded through the CT-OVC as well as participants’ suggestions on the programme

In Chapter 1, which is co-authored with Rossella Calvi and Arthur Lewbel, we show that a local average treatment effect (LATE) can sometimes be identified and consistently estimated when treatment is mismeasured, or when treatment is estimated using a possibly misspecified structural model. Our associated estimator, which we call Mismeasurement Robust LATE (MR-LATE), is based on differencing two different mismeasures of treatment. In our empirical application, treatment is a measure of empowerment: whether a wife has control of substantial household resources. Due to measurement difficulties and sharing of goods within a household, this treatment cannot be directly observed without error, and so must be estimated. Our outcomes are health indicators of family members. We first estimate a structural model to obtain the otherwise unobserved treatment indicator. Then, using changes in inheritance laws in India as an instrument, we apply our new MR-LATE estimator. We find that women's empowerment substantially decreases their probability of being anemic or underweight, and increases children's likelihood of receiving vaccinations. We find no evidence of negative effects on men's health. Then, using changes in inheritance laws in India as an instrument, we apply our new MR-LATE estimator. We find that women's empowerment substantially decreases their probability of being anemic or underweight, and increases children's likelihood of receiving vaccinations.In Chapter 2, which is co-authored with Alexander Wolf, we take the Dunbar et al (2013) (DLP) model and explore its strength and weaknesses at recovering information regarding household sharing of resources. DLP develop a collective model of the household that allows to identify resource shares, that is, how total household resources are divided up among household members. We show why, especially when the data exhibit relatively flat Engel curves, the model is weakly identified and induces high variability and an implausible pattern in least squares estimates. We propose an estimation strategy nested in their framework that greatly reduces this practical impediment to recovery of individual resource shares. To achieve this, we follow a shrinkage method that incorporates additional (or out-of-sample) information on singles and relies on mild assumptions on preferences. We show the practical usefulness of this strategy through a series of Monte Carlo simulations and by applying it to Mexican data. The results show that our approach is robust, gives a plausible picture of the household decision process, and is particularly beneficial for the practitioner who wishes to apply the DLP framework.Finally, in Chapter 3, which is co-authored with Bram De Rock and Tom Potoms, we exploit the experimental set-up of a conditional cash transfers (CCT) program in Mexico to estimate a collective model of the household and to investigate how parents allocate household resources. This is important to understand because the success of policies aimed at fighting poverty depends crucially on how parents respond to monetary incentives. If parents allocate resources inefficiently (or non-cooperatively), the resulting level of well-being is likely to fall behind the socially efficient optimum. This is undesirable given the prevalence of CCT programs over the last two decades which have occupied a large percentage of governments' annual anti-poverty budgets. Although there is evidence that they have been beneficial, their effectiveness may still be limited. Our aim is to tackle this research question by estimating a theoretically-consistent demand system and by applying at best a powerful test of household efficiency developed by Bourguignon et al (2009). Contrary to previous results, we show that households make efficient decisions only at the beginning of the program, but fail to cooperate later on. In order to rationalize these results, we propose a simple model of household behaviour where decision makers may change their preferences as a result of a treatment that gives information about the importance of a public good. / Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

Politics has often been conceptualized as a conflict between political parties that represent the economic interests of different groups in society. This conception of politics has, however, been considerably weakened by the economic and social transformations of the last decades and by the rise of post-materialist values among newer generations of electors. Indeed, the vote of manual workers for left-wing parties has declined significantly in recent decades as did the impact of left-wing parties on social spending. At the same time, the issue of low-wage work has become prominent in the partisan debates of several countries such as the United States, Canada and the United Kingdom following the mobilization of low-paid workers, unions and community associations. Low-wage workers who mainly work in the service sector have often precarious work and living conditions following decades of labor markets deregulation and are highly dependent on governmental policies to insure decent living and work conditions. One of these policies, the minimum wage, has been at the center of the electoral campaigns of many left-wing parties in recent years. However, the issue of low-wage work has rarely been studied in political science. This thesis seeks to explain the partisan dynamics surrounding the issue of low-wage work. My main argument is that low-wage workers tend to vote for left-wing parties in accordance with their economic interests, especially in countries with a weak degree of corporatism such as the United States and the United Kingdom. In those countries, left-wing parties have strong incentives to make pledges related to low-wage work like increasing the minimum wage in their electoral manifesto, because unions are unable to negotiate decent working conditions for the majority of workers. Indeed, in countries with weak corporatism, low-wage workers are very dependent on governmental interventions to ensure minimum working standards and improve their living conditions. In countries with strong corporatism, however, unions negotiate collective agreements that ensure minimum working conditions for the majority of workers, workers with weaker bargaining power are thus less dependent on government policies to insure decent working conditions. Therefore, left-wing parties should be able to consolidate their vote among low-wage workers in countries with a weak degree of corporatism. Once in power, left-wing parties should also increase the minimum wage and the direct cash transfers to low-income families more than governments led by right-wing parties, especially when corporatism is weak. The emphasis on policies targeted to low-wage workers by left-wing parties in countries with a weak degree of corporatism could also limit the capacity of radical parties to attract the vote of low-wage workers. This thesis is composed of 4 articles, one on electoral pledges related to low-wage work, one on the vote of low-wage workers, one on the impact of left-wing parties on minimum wages and one on the impact of left-wing parties on direct cash transfers received by low-income families. These four articles demonstrate the relevance of a materialist conception of politics and the role of institutions regulating the labor market on partisan dynamics.

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This dissertation focuses on identifying the poor in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and the potential of social assistance programs to address their condition. Each essay is related to one particular key step of the poverty alleviation agenda: poverty definition and measurement in Zimbabwe; targeting poor households in Cameroon; and impact evaluation of anti-poverty interventions in Niger. The first essay explores changes in poverty across multiple dimensions in a period of dramatic economic crisis and recovery in Zimbabwe. The essay analyzes changes in household well-being between 2001, 2007 and 2011/12, using an Alkire-Foster multidimensional poverty index. Results indicate a large increase in multidimensional poverty across between 2001 and 2007, followed by a (smaller) decrease in poverty between 2007 and 2011/12 (recovery period after the hyperinflation peak in 2008). However, decomposition of the index shows significantly different trends in poverty dimensions over time, as for instance health related dimensions continued to deteriorate after 2007. The second essay contributes to the policy debate on targeting by studying the ex-post efficiency of two targeting mechanisms employed in a cash transfer project in rural Cameroon: Proxy Means Testing (PMT) and community targeting. Results show a poor performance of community targeting in selecting households with low per capita consumption, compared to PMT targeting—whose errors remain high nonetheless. Communities tend to select small, isolated households with low physical and human capital, regardless of their actual consumption level, but produce variable outcomes. Overall results suggest that a higher coverage contributes to reducing targeting errors, and that better guidance should be provided to communities if the policy objective is to select low per capita consumption individuals. The third essay investigate whether cash transfers induce investments in assets and productive activities that survive the termination of program payments using data from an unconditional cash transfer project in Niger 18 months after its termination. Based on quasi-experimental methods, results indicate that local saving/credit systems (tontines) participation and livestock ownership significantly increased among project participants. There is also evidence of improvement in private assets, micro-enterprises and agriculture. The findings imply that cash transfer programs can have long-term sustainable impacts in rural SSA. / Ph. D.

Este trabalho analisa a relação entre ideias e políticas públicas. Procuramos entender como ideias sobre transferências monetárias circulam e de que modo se traduzem e/ou afetam os programas/sistemas de transferência monetária em diferentes contextos. Para tanto, examinamos quatro programas de transferência monetária em três países distintos o Child Support Grant da África do Sul, o Programa Bolsa Família do Brasil e o Chile Solidario e o Ingreso Ético Familiar do Chile. Argumentamos que é necessário combinar duas literaturas distintas estudos de difusão e transferência e abordagens cognitivas de modo a ter uma lente para analisar este fenômeno. A junção das literaturas permite-nos entender como ideias e políticas públicas viajam e se enraízam em diferentes lugares. O trabalho contribui, então, para compreender a circulação de ideias e o modo como estas se traduzem de diferentes formas consoante o contexto, originando políticas públicas com variações consideráveis. Além disso, para os três países estudados, analisamos o conteúdo das ideias, o que permite uma melhor compreensão dos debates sobre os programas e dos formatos adotados por cada um deles. / The present work examines the relation between ideas and public policy. We aim at understanding how ideas on cash transfers circulate and how they translate into/affect cash transfer programs in different contexts. In order to do so we investigate four programs/systems in three different countries South Africas Child Support Grant; Brazils Bolsa Família and the both Chilean Chile Solidario and Ingreso Ético Familiar We argue that it is necessary to combine two different bodies of literature diffusion and transfer studies as well as cognitive approaches in order to analyze this phenomenon. The interweaving of these two literatures allows us to understand how ideas and public policy travel and how they are rooted in different places. This work contributes to a better understanding of how ideas circulate and how they translate differently according to the context, originating public policy with substantial variation. Furthermore, for the three case studies, we analyze the content of ideas, allowing for a better comprehension of the debates surrounding the programs and of their design choices.

Este trabalho analisa a relação entre ideias e políticas públicas. Procuramos entender como ideias sobre transferências monetárias circulam e de que modo se traduzem e/ou afetam os programas/sistemas de transferência monetária em diferentes contextos. Para tanto, examinamos quatro programas de transferência monetária em três países distintos o Child Support Grant da África do Sul, o Programa Bolsa Família do Brasil e o Chile Solidario e o Ingreso Ético Familiar do Chile. Argumentamos que é necessário combinar duas literaturas distintas estudos de difusão e transferência e abordagens cognitivas de modo a ter uma lente para analisar este fenômeno. A junção das literaturas permite-nos entender como ideias e políticas públicas viajam e se enraízam em diferentes lugares. O trabalho contribui, então, para compreender a circulação de ideias e o modo como estas se traduzem de diferentes formas consoante o contexto, originando políticas públicas com variações consideráveis. Além disso, para os três países estudados, analisamos o conteúdo das ideias, o que permite uma melhor compreensão dos debates sobre os programas e dos formatos adotados por cada um deles. / The present work examines the relation between ideas and public policy. We aim at understanding how ideas on cash transfers circulate and how they translate into/affect cash transfer programs in different contexts. In order to do so we investigate four programs/systems in three different countries South Africas Child Support Grant; Brazils Bolsa Família and the both Chilean Chile Solidario and Ingreso Ético Familiar We argue that it is necessary to combine two different bodies of literature diffusion and transfer studies as well as cognitive approaches in order to analyze this phenomenon. The interweaving of these two literatures allows us to understand how ideas and public policy travel and how they are rooted in different places. This work contributes to a better understanding of how ideas circulate and how they translate differently according to the context, originating public policy with substantial variation. Furthermore, for the three case studies, we analyze the content of ideas, allowing for a better comprehension of the debates surrounding the programs and of their design choices.