No description available.

Basé sur la théorie de cycle endogène, cette thèse de doctorat étudie la question d'instabilité macro-économique et des fluctuations endogènes dans trois économies distinctes : I) avec des effets externes en consommation dans un modèle de Ramsey; II) avec des effets externes en loisir dans un modèle de générations imbriquées; et III) avec imperfection de marché du crédit dans un modèle de croissance endogène monétaire. / Based on the endogenous cycle theory, this doctoral thesis studies the issue of macroeconomic instability and fluctuations in three distinct economies: i) with consumption externalities in Ramsey model; ii) with leisure externalities in an overlapping generations model; and iii) with credit market imperfection in a monetary endogenous growth model.

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The significant restructuring of international capital flows to developing countries – in particular to Latin American countries – observed in the last quarter century has generated significant research in the area to examine its potential impact on development efforts. The resurgence of foreign direct investment (FDI) and the increasing significance of remittances, both as shares of gross domestic product (GDP), have made these types of capital flows the most analyzed. Despite the large fraction of empirical studies that find a positive and significant relationship between FDI and economic growth, an important fact that has been so far overlooked in the literature is its impact on standards of living in host countries. This dissertation first establishes the strong complementary connection between FDI and economic growth in Latin America, measured by increases in GDP per capita growth rates, to then examine additional channels through which it could affect the welfare of the region. I first show that FDI has a positive effect on central government tax revenues, which is mainly channeled through its effect on taxes on goods and services. I then show that FDI has a positive and significant effect on the employment rates in these host countries, with female employment rate getting the largest impact – relative to males. Remittances are another capital flow that plays a large and important role in certain economies, exceeding 10% of GDP in some countries. The impact of remittances on the main macroeconomic measures of a small open economy is analyzed in the last section using a stochastic limited participation model with cash in advance constraints and costly adjustment of cash holdings. After verifying that the model responds adequately to standard shocks, a remittances shock is introduced to examine the dynamic response of the representative economy. The results show that a positive remittances shock forces the exchange rate to depreciate and lowers both output and consumption in the period of the shock. The positive shock lowers utility during the shock but raises it from the following period onwards, improving discounted utility after 10 years when remittances are 10% of GDP and there are no adjustment costs.

Univ., Diss.--Mannheim, 2005.

No description available.

本文主要目的，在建立一個現金限制模型(cash-in-advance)的兩部門貨幣轉換模型。於模型中，不同財貨間的邊際技術的轉換率是由內生決定的。完全預期的通貨膨脹會改變財貨間的相對價格，因其受制於現金限制式不同，因此通貨膨脹經由此管道，在不同的兩部門生產要素移轉的投入，會致使資本累積改變。

Comments and Discussions : Yuko ARAYAMA (荒山裕行)

本論文在實質與貨幣內生成長模型中探討政府租稅的效果，而其中又以稅制改革政策為主角。 在第二章中，我們將內生生育率的概念引入了Romer (1986)的實質經濟成長模型，並說明當政府在維持稅收中立的原則下將所得稅制轉換為消費稅制時，將可能對經濟成長與社會福利有所傷害。而後我們也提供了一些數值模擬以支持我們的論點。至於第三章，我們將勞動供給內生的概念引入一個有預付現金限制(Cash-in-Advance)的貨幣經濟成模型，在本章中我們得到了所謂「Mundell-Tobin Effect」與「消費稅中立性」的成立與否，將取決於政府稅收的用途；接著我們把焦點放在資本的生產外部性與消費稅所造成的扭曲上並導出最適貨幣政策；最後，在維持政府的支出水準下，我們得到將消費稅制轉換為通膨稅制時，將對經濟成長有正面的效果。 / The dissertation provides a theoretical framework to investigate the effects of tax policies, especially the tax reform, in real and monetary models of endogenous growth. In Chapter 2, by shedding light on the endogenous fertility choice, we set up a simple Romer (1986)-type endogenous growth model and show that, in a departure from the existing literature, a switch from a decrease in income tax rate to an increase in consumption tax rate so as to ensure a revenue-neutrality could be harmful, rather than favorable, to both growth and welfare. In addition, we also conduct a simple numerical analysis to investigate the conditions in which the negative effect on growth and welfare occurs. As to the monetary model, an endogenous growth model with endogenous labor-leisure choice and cash-in-advance (CIA) constraint which is only imposed on consumption is established in Chapter 3. Through the model, we found that the Mundell-Tobin effect and the validity of consumption tax neutrality depend on the usages of tax revenue. Next, focusing on the distortions due to the production externality of capital and consumption tax, the optimal monetary policy is also derived. Finally, we show that a switch from consumption taxation to inflation taxation to finance a given stream of government expenditure, namely tax switch, enhances economic growth through the increase in labor supply in a CIA economy and the qualitative equivalence between MIU and CIA approaches is still valid.

隨著中國經濟持續高速成長, 國際貿易及投資快速擴展, 中國更積極推動貿 易及投資以人民幣結算, 人民幣在兩岸、 區域甚至全球市場流通可望大幅 增加。 1990年代以來, 兩岸經貿快速發展, 相形下, 雙方貨幣層面合作卻明顯 幾經波折、 踟躕不前, 目前兩岸雖已開啟人民幣現鈔清算服務但尚未建立貨 幣清算機制 , 限制台灣成為人民幣清算平台及後續金融影響力。 本文以 Devereux and Shi(2005) 為主架構, 討論兩岸簽署貨幣清算機 制建立對貿易廠商影響, 主要發現如下: (1) 於國際貨幣交易需透過工具貨幣 (Vehicle Currency,VC) 現實下, 兩岸人民幣貿易結算無法完全規避匯率風險, 此與台灣中央銀行意見一致, 但當兩岸進出口貿易全數以人民幣結算時, 若台灣使用人民幣銷貨收入購買中 國商品, 台灣對中國消費將完全不受匯率變化影響, 並非所有匯率風險皆由 台灣承擔; 此外, 當中國完全使用人民幣支付自台灣進口商品時, 中國最適 決策代數式和 D-S(2005) 雙邊貨幣直接兌換均衡 (BD) 部分相同, 自2012 年6 月1 日起, 人民幣與日圓直接兌換亦正式於東京和上海外匯市場展開, 結論因而別具政策意涵。 (2) 數值分析發現, 當兩岸進出口貿易全數以人民幣結算時, 台灣及中國總 消費對外國商品消費偏好非常不穩健, 對應所有θ, 中國總消費皆較台灣高, 且隨θ上升快速增加, 由於兩岸皆較雙邊匯兌需透過美元及雙邊貨幣可直接兌換時消費更多商品, 故可知兩岸皆得利於以人民幣進行結算。 對於上述結 論, 需要特別注意的是, 本文以包括台灣、 美國及中國, 且美國為工具貨幣 (VC) 發行國之三國模型, 是在非常特例的情況下進行福利分析, 此時雙邊 貨幣兌換均衡將與對稱交易均衡相同, 影響所及, 結論受校準時使用基準參 數值影響相當大; (3) 本文依循 D-S(2005), 限制工具貨幣發行國美國以外各國僅能於跨期 間持有美元, 故無法分析中國得以人民幣購買台灣商品下, 台灣累積一定金 額人民幣存量之影響, 然為簡化分析, 排除任何調整過程, 亦為模型不合理 處; 此外, 為簡化模型, 設定中國自台灣進口商品貨款中使用人民幣支付比 率α為外生, 然而該比率實際上應受人民幣在岸、 離岸市場利差及匯差、 全 球景氣變化增加持有美元意願等因素影響, 由於本文僅考慮貿易需求換匯 未考慮套利、 套匯行為, 將留待未來進一步分析。 / For the past three decades, a skyrocketing Chinese economy has supported its growing influences on international trade and investment,with Beijing’s active promotion for Renminbi investment and trade settlement, its greater circulation across the strait, in the Asia-Pacific region or even globally is only to be expected. Compared with the significantly intensified and institutionalized cross-strait trade and economic exchanges since early 1990s, monetary cooperation across the strait has obviously stalled and progressed slowly. Currently with only a cross-strait cash settlement agreement,but not an establishment of a cross-strait currency settlement mech- anism clearly limits Taiwan’s prospect to become the next offshore Renminbi center and its future financial influence. This thesis is based on Devereux and Shi(2005) to query into the effect of a cross-strait currency settlement mechanism for firms engaged in international trade. We find that: First, under the reality that international currency trade still uti- lizes U.S. dollar as a vehicle, cross-strait trade settled in Renminbi could not completely avoid exchange rate risks, which is in accordance with the opinion from central bank, however, when cross-strait trade are all settled in Renminbi, Taiwan would not bears all the exchange rate risks if Taiwan’s imports from China were paid in its Renminbi sales revenue; Furthermore, when all of China’s imports from Taiwan are settled in Renminbi, some of the algebraic expressions representing Chinese consumption and currency exchange decisions would coincide with the bilateral deviation(BD) equilibrium in D-S(2005) entailing some intriguing policy implications since starting from June 1,2012, yuan and yen can trade directly in Tokyo and Shanghai . Second,numerical analysis found that when cross-strait trade are all settled in Renminbi, though both sides’ total consumption are not robust to changes in preference toward foreign goods ,θ, for all θ in the relevant range , China’s total consumption is greater than Taiwan and the difference is increase in θ, in addition, they both consume more than when cross-strait remittance needs to be done via the U.S. dollar and when New Taiwanese dollar and Chinese yuan trade directly, it thus can be inferred that both Taiwan and China gain from Renminbi trade settlement.Though cautions should be taken that a welfare anal- ysis utilizing a three-country model consisting of Taiwan, China and the United States which further acts as the issuing country of vehicle currency is an extreme case, in that, bilateral deviation and symmet- rical trading equilibrium (STE) would be identical and the outcome highly subjects to benchmark values used in calibration. Third,The framework is borrowed from Devereux and Shi(2005) which prohibits non-vehicle countries from holding currencies other than U.S. dollar intertemporally, hence it could not provide any in- sights to the effects of the accumulation of a Renminbi pool in Taiwan under the Renminbi trade settlement scheme, which together with the fact that to simplify analysis, no adjusting process is included ren- der the model unreasonable and unrealistic; In addition, to reduce model construction, α, the percentage of China’s imports from Tai- wan to be paid in Renminbi is exogenous while in reality it should be endogenous and collectively determined by factors not exclusive to the spreads between CNY and CNH, differences in depositing and lending rates between the onshore and offshore market and investors’ inclination which is affected by the outlook of the global economy to embrace the safe haven of U.S. dollar. As arbitrage is ruled out and only currency exchanges for the purposes of trade is considered, all these drawbacks are to be improved upon in further studies.