Cette thèse étudie deux grandes problématiques économiques étant étroitement liées. D’une part, il est question d’analyser à quelles conditions les taux de change présentent des relations de long terme communes. D’autre part, une analyse en profondeur concernant les investissements sur devises connus sous le terme anglais de « carry trades » est proposée. Le taux de change étant un des déterminants du rendement de ces investissements, le lien entre les deux problématiques apparaît clairement. Ces problématiques sont traitées à travers la mobilisation d’outils théoriques et empiriques. Ce travail aboutit à plusieurs conclusions. Concernant les mouvements communs de long terme entre les taux de change, ils dépendent du degré d’intégration des économies ainsi que de la similarité de leurs politiques monétaires. Concernant les investissements sur devises, cette thèse démontre que les banques centrales des petites économies ouvertes ont tout intérêt à fixer une cible d’inflation ainsi qu’une cible d’afflux de capitaux afin d’éviter l’effet déstabilisateur des « carry trades ». Cette politique sera efficace uniquement si la banque centrale est transparente concernant ses cibles de long terme. Pour finir, après la crise financière de 2008, la banque centrale Néo-Zélandaise a changé de comportement vis-à-vis des « carry trades » en provenance du Japon. En effet, après la crise, la banque centrale y a répondu de manière à stabiliser l’économie. Cependant, les investissements en provenance des Etats-Unis sont toujours déstabilisateurs pour l’économie Néo-Zélandaise, surtout lorsque les Etats-Unis utilisent une politique d’assouplissement quantitatif. / This thesis investigates two main issues in economics. On the one hand, we investigate under which conditions cointegration between exchange rates is likely to appear. On the other hand, this thesis proposes to investigate how carry trades affect small open economies. Given that the exchange rate is a main determinant of carry trades’ returns, these two topics are obviously linked. These two issues are investigated both through theoretical and empirical tools. Concerning long run comovements between exchange rates, this thesis reveals that they depend on the degree of linkages between two economies and on the way central banks set their monetary policies. Concerning carry trades, this work sheds light on the fact that small open economies central banks should have both an inflation and a capital inflows target to suppress the destabilizing effect of carry trades. Moreover, such a policy would be efficient only if the central banks are transparent concerning their long run targets. Finally, in this thesis we show that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has changed its reaction to Japan-sourced carry trades after the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC). Indeed, after the GFC, the RBNZ responded in a stabilizing way to Japan-sourced carry trades. However, after the GFC, the RBNZ still responded in a destabilizing way to US-sourced carry trades. Our work also reveals that carry trades destabilize even more New-Zealand’s economy when the US are engaged in a quantitative easing policy.

Magister Legum - LLM / South Africa

The aim of this thesis is to analyze impacts of monetary policy of Czech national bank on the Czech economy since 1993 to 2015. Last few years monetary policy has been often discussed topic in Czech republic. Instruments of monetary policy have been changing and it will be changed again. In this conditions the analysis of entire period of CNB existence is very attractive for author. The theoretical part of the thesis deals with economic theory of central bank. In this part the thesis talks in detail about the regimes of monetary policy and it is focusing on the inflation targeting. The practical part of the thesis deals with analysis of monetary policy in every year in terms of meeting the targets and their impact on the economy. The conclusion of this analysis is to evaluate the effectiveness of monetary policy from 1993 to the present.

This master thesis is based on analyses of the Cypriot banking sector from 2010 to 2016. The aim is to describe the effects of the recent financial crisis in Cyprus to locally operating banks, to assess the assistance provided to Cypriot banks and especially to analyze the development of systemically important Cypriot banking institutions, namely the Bank of Cyprus Group, Cooperative Central Bank, Hellenic Bank and RCB Bank Ltd with emphasis on the most important banking institution in Cyprus. The work draws mainly from published financial results of the systemic banks and from the Central Bank of Cyprus representing the consolidated banking sector. Furthermore, for the purpose of this study was used the Eurostat database, EBA and the IMF periodicals, along with the websites of the credit rating agencies.

This work is about central bank independence and about advantages and risks resulted from this position. The beginnig of the work is about history of central banking in the world and in our republic. The next capture is dedicated to the question of necessity of central banks and it uses especially the work of F.A.Hayek. It also describes his suggestion to implement the competition between private issuers of money. The last and the largest chapter is about central bank independence. After the definition of independence, there is a part concerned types of independence, mainly the legal and the actual one. The level of independence can be usually measured by few indexes. The way how to calculate them is also in the text of this work. Final part of the work is aimed on advantages and risks resulting from the independent status of central bank. The main advantage is represented by elimination of time inconsistency problem, on the other hand the main risk is the absence of responsibility of central bank for her policy.

The accession to the European Monetary Union is fundamentally changing the role of the Czech national bank. Aim of this work is to describe and evaluate this new role of the CNB in connection with the transfer of its former powers to the ECB. The theoretical part of the work deals with the role of central banking in general, the role of the CNB before the accession to the EMU and the role of ECB in monetary union. The work reviews compliance with the conditions required for the accession to the EMU. Further it focuses on the analysis of CNB monetary policy in recent years, particularly its interest rates policy. In view of the future situation in the field of monetary policy the work draws on the experience of Slovakia after its entry into the euro zone and respondes to the question of whether uniform monetary policy is equally applicable to all member states of the euro area by using the Theory of Optimum Currency Area. The work also analyzes the actions of the ECB and the CNB caused by the current economic crisis.

The diploma work deals with the problems of financial crises, concretely with the Icelandic financial crisis in 2008. The main target of the work is to describe the course, the causes and the consequences of the financial crisis. The fundamental informations about the financial crises are summarized in the theoretical part. The descriptive part deals with the development of the icelandic economy before crisis and with the course of the financial crisis. The final part is devoted to the analysis of the icelandic financial crisis, for that is used the general model of systemic financial crises.

The aim of the thesis is to analyze and to explain monetary policy of Russian central bank and to determine its specific characteristics during 2010 -- 2014 as well as to describe its main instruments, goals, models and methods of regulation. First of all, the author will introduce common problems of monetary policy and there will be described general theoretical aspects of monetary policy functioning as well as impacts of monetary measures in open economy with different regimes of exchange policy and capital mobility. Further, there will be described instruments and transmission mechanism of monetary policy. The author will try to describe conditions of monetary policy realization, which have an impact on the direction of Bank of Russia measures, within the analytical part. The author will describe instruments that are characteristic for Russian central bank and foreign exchange policy, which are important for prediction of impact from monetary actions. At the end of the thesis the author will try to estimate an efficiency of monetary policy with the comparison of reality and the prognoses of Bank of Russia.

The current thesis titled "Credit risk of central bank foreign exchange operations" aims to explain the concept of credit risk and its types from theoretical perspective and to define sources of credit risk that are specific for central banks and which arise from central bank's operations. It also aims at the analysis of possible methods of credit risk limitation. The practical part of this thesis is dedicated to the study of specific sources of credit risk as well as methods of credit risk management which are presented on the examples of the central banks of Great Britain, Japan and the European central bank. Closer attention is also paid to the response of these central banks to the 2008 financial crisis and the impact that this crisis had on the extent of their exposure to credit risk.

This thesis aims to analyse the connection between the Eurozone's balance of payments crisis and the TARGET 2 balances. These balances represent mutual clearing relationship of the individual euro area member states to the European Central Bank inside the TARGET 2 system, which serves as a heart of the Eurozone's payment settlements. In fact, the central banks of the core countries hold significant positive balances while the peripheral central banks accumulated substantial negative positions. The TARGET 2 balances appeared mainly as a consequence of the liquidity outflow from the peripheral countries to the core due to the large imbalances in fundamental factors such as the NCA deficits, net foreign debt, public and private debt or competitiveness. The development of the balances was further facilitated via uneven liquidity provisions from the Eurosystem, as the peripheral countries effectively financed their balance of payments disequilibrium by issuing new liquidity that almost immediately moved to the core. The banking systems of the core started to operate in the liquidity excess status as the monetary base increased in 2011 and 2012. Assets with questionable quality collateralized the increasing refinancing operations in the periphery as the collateral requirements were repeatedly lowered. It resulted in an increase in the credit risk of these operations primarily in the periphery countries. This situation, among many others presented in this thesis, raises further questions about the parameters of the future single monetary policy as well as the continuance of the European monetary union.