Not available / text

Note: / The history of I1Dst large organizations contains periods of turnoil and upheaval which called for, or resulted fram, attempts at steering the organization towards new directions and changing its fabric of goals, strategies, structures and values.[...] / L'histoire des grandes organisations contient presqu' invariablement des episodes de bouleversement et de crise. Ces periodes troubles exigent, ou parfois sont Ie resultat, des efforts pour imprinter a I lorganisa-:tion une nouvelle direction, pour en changer les buts, strategies, structures et valeurs.[...]

By 1994 education in South Africa had collapsed (TRC, 1998; CCOLT, 1996). In response, South Africa's first non-racial government initiated a wide ranging School Reform (SR) program. However, almost a decade after the reforms commenced there have been very few substantial changes in the majority of South African schools: The Education Rights Project (2003a) and the South African Human Rights Commission argue that SR is failing the majority of South Africans. This thesis explores an alternative, School-Community Development (SCD), that integrates school reforms with programs that draw members of the school's neighbouring community (the "school-community") into the process of changing schools. I argue that SR is an inadequate response to the problems that confront schools. Using the case study method I show that SR is enhanced when integrated with locally developed social, cultural, economic, and school development programs. The thesis makes two contributions to the literature. First, the thesis challenges the "simplistic solutions to educational problems" (Anyon, 1997, p. 12) that constitute SR. Second, the thesis presents a materially grounded critique of SR in South Africa that evokes the "multiple voices" (Sayed, 2002, p. 32) from the four case study schools. Accordingly, our understanding of "making change work at the micro level", a neglected area of South African educational research (Sayed and Jansen, 2001, p. 7), is enhanced.

No abstract available. / Thesis (MBA)-University of Natal, Durban, 2002.

The recent quantification of the reservoir of carbon held in permafrost soils has rekindled the concern that the terrestrial biosphere will transition from a carbon sink to a carbon source during the 21st century. This dissertation is a compilation of four modelling studies that investigate the permafrost carbon feedback, its consequences for the projected future behaviour of the carbon cycle, and the origins of the proportionally between cumulative CO$_2$ emissions and near surface temperature change. The dissertation is centred around five questions: 1) what is the strength and timing of the permafrost carbon feedback to climate change? 2) If anthropogenic CO2 emissions cease, will atmospheric CO2 concentration continue to increase? 3) Can climate warming be reversed using artificial atmospheric carbon-dioxide removal? 4) What are the underlying physical mechanisms that explain the existence in Earth system models of the proportionality between cumulative CO2 emissions and mean global near surface temperature change? And 5) can strong terrestrial carbon cycle feedbacks, such as the permafrost carbon feedback, disrupt this proportionality? By investigating the these questions using the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM) and analytical mathematics the following conclusions are drawn: 1) The permafrost carbon feedback to climate change is simulated to have a strength of 0.25 C (0.1 to 0.75)C by the year 2100 CE independent of emission pathway followed in the 21st century. This range is contingent on the size of the permafrost carbon pool and the simulated model climate sensitivity. 2) If CO2 emissions were to suddenly cease, the UVic ESCM suggests that whether or not CO2 would continue to build up in the atmosphere is contingent on climate sensitivity and the concentration of non-CO2 greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere. For a given model climate sensitivity there is a threshold value of radiative forcing from non-CO2 greenhouse gasses above which CO2 will continue to build up in the atmosphere for centuries after cessation of anthropogenic CO2 emissions. For a UVic ESCM the threshold value for the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) derived emission scenarios is approximately 0.6 Wm^-2 of non-CO2 greenhouse gas radiative forcing. The consequences of being above this threshold value are mild, with the model projecting a further 11-22 ppmv rise in atmosphere CO2 concentration after emissions cease. 3) If technologies were developed and deployed to remove carbon from the atmosphere simulations with the UVic ESCM suggest that a Holocene-like climate could be restored by the end of the present millennium (except under a high climate sensitivity and high emission scenario). However, more carbon must be removed from the atmosphere than was originally emitted to it. 4) The proportionality between cumulative CO2 emissions and global mean temperature change seen in most Earth system model simulations appears to arises from two factors: I) the stability of the airborne fraction of emitted carbon provided by the ocean uptake of carbon begin nearly a function of CO2 emission rate; and II) the diminishing heat uptake by the oceans compensating for the reduced radiative forcing per unit mass CO2 at high atmospheric CO2 concentrations. 5) Strong terrestrial carbon cycle feedbacks can disrupt the proportionality between cumulative CO2 emissions and global mean temperature change. However, within the range of emission rates project for the RCPs the permafrost carbon feedback is not strong enough to disrupt the relationship. Overall, the addition of the permafrost carbon pool to the UVic ESCM alters model behaviour in ways that if representative of the natural world will make stabilizing climate or reversing climate change more difficult than has previously been foreseen. / Graduate / 0768 / 0373 / andrewhughmacdougall@gmail.com

This thesis explores two problems: (1) how early childhood teachers can manage professional development and change in their own settings, and (2) how to create a thesis. Both facets of the thesis emerge from the professional development in Active Movement that the teachers and I co-constructed at our early childhood centre between April 2005 and June 2006. This thesis sets out to test the main idea that having a theory of change for teachers' professional development can help teachers negotiate complex change and craft their own professional development solutions. It uses stories as a key facet of its methodology and presents stories of professional development and change related to five inter-weaving learning journeys. The learning journeys relate to (1) my learning journeys as a professional development coordinator and (2) as a researcher, (3) the overall learning journeys and (4) & (5) teachers' collective learning journeys to implement two different but related practices in Active Movement. The stories provide a range of professional development solutions and change at individual and collective levels from which different theories of change can be derived. From these stories, I identify three theories of change as well as the complex changes we negotiated and the professional development solutions we crafted. In identifying the theories of change, the complex changes and the professional development solutions, this thesis supports the main idea and argues that teachers can develop a theory of change to manage professional development and change in their own settings. This thesis argues that a theory of change is a set of strategies that address the local conditions. It suggests that the process of developing a theory of change can include articulating local conditions and creating strategies that support and guide the change in ways that address these local conditions. It also suggests that recognising what counts as local conditions and strategies can help teachers develop their own theories of change. In creating the strategies to support the change effort, it is important to identify the purpose of the strategies, their underlying values and relationships, and the day-to-day realities that constrain the change effort. At the same time, it is important to identify how different strategies inter-relate to help us manage the tensions that can arise from these relationships. This thesis argues that theories of change can include multiple and embedded theories of change, that we can create theories of change as plans or explanations of change or as dynamic theories of change that emerge from the inter-play between plans and explanations. This thesis also argues that there are different ways to articulate our theories of change and that there are limits to the extent to which we can or should articulate them. It also argues that the theories of change we create and use for our change efforts depend on the nature of the change. A theory of change that embodies the process of emergence is useful for managing professional development and change efforts that have a high degree of complexity and uncertainty and whose end goals are initially unknown. This thesis also suggests that creating the role of a professional development or change coordinator can help centres manage the knowledge used and created in the professional development or change effort in ways that benefit individuals, groups and the centre. This thesis also argues that (1) the thesis investigation is my personal professional development and represents my learning journeys to create a thesis, (2) the thesis report constitutes a theory of change for the thesis investigation, and (3) the thesis is experimental in the way that it is reported. This thesis proposes other possible investigations related to the idea of theories of change; (1) to develop an Active Movement community of practice within the wider early childhood sector, and (2) to investigate the role of theories of change in everyday teaching and learning. Finally, it uses the notion of value creation to suggest ways to create added value for the teachers and the Centre, for Sport and Recreation New Zealand and for myself.

The recent quantification of the reservoir of carbon held in permafrost soils has rekindled the concern that the terrestrial biosphere will transition from a carbon sink to a carbon source during the 21st century. This dissertation is a compilation of four modelling studies that investigate the permafrost carbon feedback, its consequences for the projected future behaviour of the carbon cycle, and the origins of the proportionally between cumulative CO$_2$ emissions and near surface temperature change. The dissertation is centred around five questions: 1) what is the strength and timing of the permafrost carbon feedback to climate change? 2) If anthropogenic CO2 emissions cease, will atmospheric CO2 concentration continue to increase? 3) Can climate warming be reversed using artificial atmospheric carbon-dioxide removal? 4) What are the underlying physical mechanisms that explain the existence in Earth system models of the proportionality between cumulative CO2 emissions and mean global near surface temperature change? And 5) can strong terrestrial carbon cycle feedbacks, such as the permafrost carbon feedback, disrupt this proportionality? By investigating the these questions using the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM) and analytical mathematics the following conclusions are drawn: 1) The permafrost carbon feedback to climate change is simulated to have a strength of 0.25 C (0.1 to 0.75)C by the year 2100 CE independent of emission pathway followed in the 21st century. This range is contingent on the size of the permafrost carbon pool and the simulated model climate sensitivity. 2) If CO2 emissions were to suddenly cease, the UVic ESCM suggests that whether or not CO2 would continue to build up in the atmosphere is contingent on climate sensitivity and the concentration of non-CO2 greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere. For a given model climate sensitivity there is a threshold value of radiative forcing from non-CO2 greenhouse gasses above which CO2 will continue to build up in the atmosphere for centuries after cessation of anthropogenic CO2 emissions. For a UVic ESCM the threshold value for the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) derived emission scenarios is approximately 0.6 Wm^-2 of non-CO2 greenhouse gas radiative forcing. The consequences of being above this threshold value are mild, with the model projecting a further 11-22 ppmv rise in atmosphere CO2 concentration after emissions cease. 3) If technologies were developed and deployed to remove carbon from the atmosphere simulations with the UVic ESCM suggest that a Holocene-like climate could be restored by the end of the present millennium (except under a high climate sensitivity and high emission scenario). However, more carbon must be removed from the atmosphere than was originally emitted to it. 4) The proportionality between cumulative CO2 emissions and global mean temperature change seen in most Earth system model simulations appears to arises from two factors: I) the stability of the airborne fraction of emitted carbon provided by the ocean uptake of carbon begin nearly a function of CO2 emission rate; and II) the diminishing heat uptake by the oceans compensating for the reduced radiative forcing per unit mass CO2 at high atmospheric CO2 concentrations. 5) Strong terrestrial carbon cycle feedbacks can disrupt the proportionality between cumulative CO2 emissions and global mean temperature change. However, within the range of emission rates project for the RCPs the permafrost carbon feedback is not strong enough to disrupt the relationship. Overall, the addition of the permafrost carbon pool to the UVic ESCM alters model behaviour in ways that if representative of the natural world will make stabilizing climate or reversing climate change more difficult than has previously been foreseen. / Graduate / 2015-05-01 / 0768 / 0373 / andrewhughmacdougall@gmail.com

In order to assist people in making positive changes of problematic behaviour it is necessary to examine how people change and what factors influence the process. Criminal offenders represent a group of individuals who often have difficulty desisting from problematic behaviour and continue to engage in illegal activity. Offenders in provincial correctional institutions were administered questionnaires to determine stage of change and processes utilized as outlined in the Transtheoretical Model (TTM) of change (Prochaska & DiClemente, 1984). Additionally, offenders were asked about their visions of the future using the Possible Selves (PSs) Model (Markus & Nurius, 1986). Taken together, this study looked at the contribution of the PSs Model to our understanding of the TTM, which has been criticized in recent years as lacking therapeutic significance for treatment providers as they guide individuals through the change process. More specifically, this study compares chronic criminals with first time offenders on psychological variables such as readiness for change, vision of possible selves, and hope for the future, as well as on legal variables such as risk for recidivism and institutional behaviour. The results indicate that most offenders acknowledged their behaviour as problematic and some even reported they were actively taking steps to change; however, chronic offenders admitted having less hope than first time offenders. Interestingly, both groups rated similarly on the dimensions of PSs. The outcomes would suggest that research efforts to incorporate other complimentary theories of change into the TTM, like the PSs model, may be helpful for understanding the process of change. While it seems these models may not be useful for predicting institutional behaviour, the data perhaps demonstrates the complexity of criminal behaviour and speaks to the necessity of further research in this population.

Protective coloration such as aposematism and crypsis occurs in many insects but only a few species alter their defensive strategy during the same instar. We hypothesize the adult shield bug Graphosoma lineatum with an alternating black and non-melanised longitudinal striation exhibit such a change in defensive coloration. In Sweden, the non-melanised stripes of the pre-hibernation G. lineatum are pale brown and cryptic but they change during hibernation to red and aposematic. We have tested the adaptive functions of coloration of the two G. lineatum forms against bird predators. In Paper I we used great tits as predators and measured detection time of the two forms against a background of dry grass and plants, simulating late-summer conditions. We found that the birds took longer time to find the pale than the red form. Thus, the pale form of G. lineatum is more cryptic in a dry environment than the red form. In Paper II and III we used naïve predators and measured attack rate/latency on red and pale adults and fifth-instar larvae (black and brown) to investigate avoidance and generalisation between the stages. In Paper II domestic chicks initially found the red form most intimidating, but both adult forms are more intimidating than the larva. Moreover, there was a broad generalisation among forms. In Paper III naïve great tits did not find the red form significantly more aversive than the pale adult. Neither the chicks nor the tits showed any difference in the speed of avoidance learning between the two adult colour forms. In Paper IV the shieldbugs themselves were the main focus as we compared activity levels in the different colour forms and found that G. lineatum alters behaviour in accordance to their protective strategy. Thus they were significantly less active during the cryptic phase. Taken together, these experiments suggest that the pale brown adult invests in a cryptic strategy at the cost of reduced protection from aposematism, whereas the red adult benefits from aposematism at the cost of reduced camouflage. / At the time of the doctoral defense, the following papers were unpublished and had a status as follows: Paper 3: Manuscript. Paper 4: Accepted.

This thesis drew upon the resources of philosophical hermeneutics to construct a conceptual framework for understanding the process of educational change. The experience of a particular case of change was then analysed from the perspective of the hermeneutic change agency framework. The conceptual framework for the thesis was developed from the writings of Hans-Georg Gadamer and also from writers who engaged with Gadamer, most notably, Paul Ricoeur and Jurgen Habermas. The retrieval orientation in Gadamer's hermeneutics was balanced by the critical analyses of Ricoeur and Habermas. Gadamer's notion of the 'fusion of horizons' was presented as the culmination of the change process: a fusion between the horizon of the change text, and the horizons of the change process participants. The thesis explored the potential of hermeneutic strategies such as play and conversation as a means to animate a hermeneutic form of change agentry. The case investigated in this thesis was a change process comprised of four strategies conducted over the years 1980 to 1996 at a Jesuit school located on the east coast of Australia. The change strategies aimed to promote the Jesuit ethos of the school and hence have been described in this thesis as 'ethos strategies'. The purpose of the thesis was not to evaluate the success of the ethos strategies, it was to explore how insights derived from philosophical hermeneutics could illuminate an analysis of the lived experience of a particular case of change. The subject matter of this thesis is timely because many Catholic schools are currently in a period of transition from a leadership exercised by Religious (nuns, brothers or priests) to a leadership exercised by lay people. The thesis situated the ethos programs in their theological and demographic contexts by presenting relevant theological developments from the Second Vatican Council and by describing the sharp decrease in the numbers of Religious personnel available to work in the schools. The teacher response to the ethos programs was considered in the context of the many practical difficulties associated with the scheduling of teacher development programs in fast-moving and busy schools. Although this thesis was particularly focused on change strategies that were conducted in the context of Jesuit education, the thesis is more generally situated in the research literature on educational change. The hermeneutic orientation of this thesis highlighted the elements of understanding, interpretation and meaning, and these elements are given some prominence in the more recent research literature on the change process. The complexity of change and the cultural dimension of the change process has been emphasised in the most recent educational change research literature and these themes have also found expression in this thesis. Participant observation, document analysis and qualitative interviews were used as data collection strategies for the case study in this thesis. The researcher was actively involved in the events investigated in the case study, and a case narrative was developed from the researcher's experience as a change agent responsible for implementing one of the change strategies at the case site. The case narrative was written in the first person and from the perspective of the researcher as a change manager. The methodology of the research was grounded in the hermeneutic insight that understanding and tact lies at the heart of the research process, rather than procedure and method. Hermeneutic research relies upon a capacity to identify and respond to the question that is presented by the expression of life being understood. Change agentry was presented in this thesis as unfolding in a middle space between the familiarity of current practice and the unfamiliarity of the new world that a change process seeks to open up. Hermeneutics has long understood that that interpretation would be impossible if the expressions of life were totally alien and unnecessary if there was nothing alien in them. A hermeneutic approach to change agentry seeks to discover points of commonality and points of challenge between the world of current practice and the world that the change process would open up. This thesis points to the tactful and dialogical dimensions of change agency when it is considered from the vantage point of philosophical hermeneutics.