The purpose of this thesis is to identify the best volatility model for Value-at-Risk(VaR) estimations. We estimate 1 % and 5 % VaR figures for Nordic indices andstocks by using two symmetrical and two asymmetrical GARCH models underdifferent error distributions. Out-of-sample volatility forecasts are produced usinga 500 day rolling window estimation on data covering January 2007 to December2014. The VaR estimates are thereafter evaluated through Kupiec’s test andChristoffersen’s test in order to find the best model. The results suggest thatasymmetrical models perform better than symmetrical models albeit the simpleARCH is often good enough for 1 % VaR estimates.

Submitted by Fabiola Costa (famedina06@hotmail.com) on 2010-08-24T14:18:56Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao_Fabiola_Medina_Costa.pdf: 981365 bytes, checksum: 368c8b3a6a54c3a8e7c0f62130bcf2a3 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Vitor Souza(vitor.souza@fgv.br) on 2010-08-24T14:39:21Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao_Fabiola_Medina_Costa.pdf: 981365 bytes, checksum: 368c8b3a6a54c3a8e7c0f62130bcf2a3 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2010-08-24T17:42:48Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao_Fabiola_Medina_Costa.pdf: 981365 bytes, checksum: 368c8b3a6a54c3a8e7c0f62130bcf2a3 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2010-05-28 / This paper proposes the historical simulation model to calculate the VaR, considering return ajusted by the realized volatility measured from intraday returns. The database consists of five most liquid share among the different segments of Bovespa Index. For the proposed methodology we used two of the empirical theories of the empirical literature - adjusted historical simulation and realized volatility. The Kupiec tes and Christoffersen test are used to analized and veryfy the proposed methodology performance. / O presente trabalho propõe para o cálculo VaR o modelo de simulação histórica, com os retornos atualizados pela volatilidade realizada calculada a partir de dados intradiários. A base de dados consiste de cinco ações entre as mais líquidas do Ibovespa de distintos segmentos. Para a metodologia proposta utilizamos duas teorias da literatura empírica – simulação histórica ajustada e volatilidade realizada. Para análise e verificação do desempenho da metodologia proposta utilizamos o Teste de Kupiec e o Teste de Christoffersen.