Most estimates of wood supply do not reflect the true availability of wood resources. The availability of wood resources ultimately depends on collective wood harvesting decisions across the landscape. Both social and biophysical constraints impact harvesting decisions and thus the availability of wood resources. While most constraints do not completely inhibit harvesting, they may significantly reduce the probability of harvest. Realistic assessments of woody availability and distribution are needed for effective forest management and planning. This study focuses on predicting the probability of harvest at forested FIA plot locations in Virginia. Classification and regression trees, conditional inferences trees, random forest, balanced random forest, conditional random forest, and logistic regression models were built to predict harvest as a function of social and biophysical availability constraints. All of the models were evaluated and compared to identify important variables constraining harvest, predict future harvests, and estimate the available wood supply. Variables related to population and resource quality seem to be the best predictors of future harvest. The balanced random forest and logistic regressions models are recommended for predicting future harvests. The balanced random forest model is the best predictor, while the logistic regression model can be most easily shared and replicated. Both models were applied to predict harvest at recently measured FIA plots. Based on the probability of harvest, we estimate that between 2012 and 2017, 10 – 21 percent of total wood volume on timberland will be available for harvesting. / Master of Science

Approved for public release; distribution in unlimited. / In this thesis we develop a procedure for detecting erroneous payments in the Defense Finance Accounting Service, Internal Review's (DFAS IR) Knowledge Base Of Erroneous Payments (KBOEP), with the use of supervised (Logistic Regression) and unsupervised (Classification and Regression Trees (C & RT)) modeling algorithms. S-Plus software was used to construct a supervised model of vendor payment data using Logistic Regression, along with the Hosmer-Lemeshow Test, for testing the predictive ability of the model. The Clementine Data Mining software was used to construct both supervised and unsupervised model of vendor payment data using Logistic Regression and C & RT algorithms. The Logistic Regression algorithm, in Clementine, generated a model with predictive probabilities, which were compared against the C & RT algorithm. In addition to comparing the predictive probabilities, Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves were generated for both models to determine which model provided the best results for a Coincidence Matrix's True Positive, True Negative, False Positive and False Negative Fractions. The best modeling technique was C & RT and was given to DFAS IR to assist in reducing the manual record selection process currently being used. A recommended ruleset was provided, along with a detailed explanation of the algorithm selection process. / Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy

Submitted by Jorge Silva (jorgelmsilva@ufrrj.br) on 2018-08-24T18:57:55Z No. of bitstreams: 1 2013 - Marcia Cavalcanti de Albuquerque.pdf: 12812324 bytes, checksum: 6ad3724579dc770eb98b1bc085f473fe (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-24T18:57:55Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 2013 - Marcia Cavalcanti de Albuquerque.pdf: 12812324 bytes, checksum: 6ad3724579dc770eb98b1bc085f473fe (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-01-25 / CAPES / CNPq / This study aimed to identify the parasite species of eight forage fish species from the Tr?s Marias reservoir; to clarify some aspects about their parasite faunas through the quantification of the parasite parameters (prevalence, intensity and , abundance); to determine diversity indices of each endocommunity; to compare the endoparasite communities using qualitative and quantitative methods; and to investigate which biotic and abiotic factors were relevant in the endoparasite communities structuration. A total of 492 fish (Characiformes, Characidae) were collected in the Tr?s Marias reservoir (18?12'59"S, 45?17'34"W), upper S?o Francisco river, State of Minas Gerais, between May 2003 and July 2010. Of these total, 44 specimens were of Astyanax bimaculatus (Linnaeus, 1758), 76 of Astyanax fasciatus (Cuvier, 1819), 70 of Bryconops affinis (G?nther, 1864), 64 of Hemigrammus marginatus Ellis, 1911, 41 of Moenkausia costae (Steindachner, 1907), 51 of Orthospinus franciscensis (Eigenmann, 1914), 63 of Tetragonopterus chalceus Spix & Agassiz, 1829 and 83 of Triportheus guentheri (Garman, 1890). Were found 21 endoparasite species among the eight communities ? Digenea: Creptotrema creptotrema Travassos, Artigas & Pereira, 1928, Magnivitellinum simplex Kloss, 1966, unidentified species of Digenea (adults), Austrodiplostomum sp. and Clinostomum marginatum (Rudolphi, 1819) Braun, 1899 (metacercariaes); Eucestoda: unidentified species of Cyclophyllidea (metacestode) and unidentified species of Proteocephalidae (plerocercoids); Nematoda: Procamallanus saofranciscencis Moreira, Oliveira & Costa, 1994, Rhabdochona spA., Spinitectus rodolphiheringi Vaz & Pereira, 1934 (adults), Contracaecum sp., Hysterothylacium sp., Goezia sp., unidentified species of Cucullanidae, Procamallanus sp., Procamallanus (Spirocamallanus) sp., Spiroxys sp., Rhabdochona sp. and Cystidicoloides fischeri (Travassos, Artigas & Pereira, 1928) (larvas); Myxozoa: Henneguya sp. (plasmodium with spores); and Protozoa (Apicomplexa): Calyptospora sp. (cysts with oocysts). Seven of these species were more frequent between the eight hosts: plerocercoids of Proteocephalidae, P. saofranciscencis, Contracaecum sp., Hysterothylacium sp., Spiroxys sp., Rhabdochona sp. and Henneguya sp.. The A. bimaculatus was the richest (16 endoparasite species) and the T. guentheri was the most diverse (Shannon-Wiener = 0,86) communiity. The H. marginatus was the less rich (nine taxa) and diverse community (Shannon-Wiener = 0,03). The most qualitative similarity was between the A. bimaculatus and A. fasciatus communities, while the most quantitative similarity occurred between the H. marginatus and O. franciscensis communities. The structure of parasite communities was mainly influenced by five factors: biotic ? fish species, size and diet; and abiotic: water electrical conductivity and fish collection period. However, the fish diet seems to be the major determining composition of the parasite communities of forage fish from the Tr?s Marias reservoir. / Este trabalho teve como objetivos identificar as esp?cies de parasitos de oito esp?cies de peixes forrageiros do reservat?rio de Tr?s Marias; esclarecer alguns aspectos sobre suas faunas parasit?rias atrav?s da quantifica??o dos par?metros parasit?rios (preval?ncia, intensidade e abund?ncia); determinar ?ndices de diversidade de cada endocomunidade; comparar quantitativa e qualitativamente as comunidades endoparasit?rias desses oito hospedeiros; e investigar quais fatores bi?ticos e abi?ticos foram relevantes na estrutura??o das comunidades endoparasit?rias. Um total de 492 peixes (Characiformes, Characidae) foram coletados no reservat?rio de Tr?s Marias (18?12'59"S, 45?17'34"W), alto rio S?o Francisco, Minas Gerais, entre maio de 2003 e julho 2010. Desse total, 44 esp?cimes eram de Astyanax bimaculatus (Linnaeus, 1758), 76 de Astyanax fasciatus (Cuvier, 1819), 70 de Bryconops affinis (G?nther, 1864), 64 de Hemigrammus marginatus Ellis, 1911, 41 de Moenkausia costae (Steindachner, 1907), 51 de Orthospinus franciscensis (Eigenmann, 1914), 63 de Tetragonopterus chalceus Spix & Agassiz, 1829 e 83 de Triportheus guentheri (Garman, 1890). Foram encontradas 21 esp?cies de endoparasitos dentre as oito comunidades - Digenea: Creptotrema creptotrema Travassos, Artigas & Pereira, 1928, Magnivitellinum simplex Kloss, 1966, uma esp?cie n?o identificada (adultos), Austrodiplostomum sp. e Clinostomum marginatum (Rudolphi, 1819) Braun, 1899 (metacerc?rias); Eucestoda: esp?cie n?o identificada de Cyclophyllidea (metacestoide) e esp?cie n?o identificada de Proteocephalidae (plerocercoides); Nematoda: Procamallanus saofranciscencis Moreira, Oliveira & Costa, 1994, Rhabdochona spA., Spinitectus rodolphiheringi Vaz & Pereira, 1934 (adultos), Contracaecum sp., Hysterothylacium sp., Goezia sp., esp?cie n?o identificada de Cucullanidae, Procamallanus sp., Procamallanus (Spirocamallanus) sp., Spiroxys sp., Rhabdochona sp. e Cystidicoloides fischeri (Travassos, Artigas & Pereira, 1928) (larvas); Myxozoa: Henneguya sp. (plasm?dio com esporos); e Protozoa (Apicomplexa): Calyptospora sp. (cistos com oocistos). Sete dessas foram mais frequentes dentre os oito hospedeiros: plerocercoides de Proteocephalidae, P. saofranciscencis, Contracaecum sp., Hysterothylacium sp., Spiroxys sp., Rhabdochona sp. e Henneguya sp.. A comunidade de A. bimaculatus foi a mais rica (16 esp?cies de endoparasitos) e a de T. guentheri a mais diversa (Shannon-Wiener = 0,86). A comunidade de H. marginatus foi a menos rica (nove t?xons) e diversa (Shannon-Wiener = 0,03). A maior similaridade qualitativa foi entre as comunidades de A. bimaculatus e A. fasciatus, enquanto que a maior similaridade quantitativa se deu entre as comunidades de H. marginatus e O. franciscensis. A estrutura das comunidades parasit?rias foi influenciada principalmente por cinco fatores: bi?ticos ? esp?cie, comprimento e dieta dos peixes; e abi?ticos ? condutividade el?trica da ?gua e ?poca de coleta dos peixes. Contudo, a dieta dos peixes pareceu ser o maior determinante da composi??o das comunidades endoparasit?rias dos forrageiros do reservat?rio de Tr?s Marias.

The term prosody refers to characteristics of speech such as intonation, timing, loudness, and other acoustical properties imposed by physical, intentional and emotional state of the speaker. Phone durations and fundamental frequency contours are considered as two of the most prominent aspects of prosody. Modeling phone durations and fundamental frequency contours in Turkish speech are studied in this thesis. Various methods exist for building prosody models. State-of-the-art is dominated by corpus-based methods. This study introduces corpus-based approaches using classification and regression trees to discover the relationships between prosodic attributes and phone durations or fundamental frequency contours. In this context, a speech corpus, designed to have specific phonetic and prosodic content has been recorded and annotated. A set of prosodic attributes are compiled. The elements of the set are determined based on linguistic studies and literature surveys. The relevances of prosodic attributes are investigated by statistical measures such as mutual information and information gain. Fundamental frequency contour and phone duration modeling are handled as independent problems. Phone durations are predicted by using regression trees where the set of prosodic attributes is formed by forward selection. Quantization of phone durations is studied to improve prediction quality. A two-stage duration prediction process is proposed for handling specific ranges of phone duration values. Scaling and shifting of predicted durations are proposed to minimize mean squared error. Fundamental frequency contour modeling is studied under two different frameworks. One of them generates a codebook of syllable-fundamental-frequency-contours by vector quantization. The codewords are used to predict sentence fundamental frequency contours. Pitch accent prediction by two different clustering of codewords into accented and not-accented subsets is also considered in this framework. Based on the experience, the other approach is initiated. An algorithm has been developed to identify syllables having perceptual prominence or pitch accents. The slope of fundamental frequency contours are then predicted for the syllables identified as accented. Pitch contours of sentences are predicted using the duration information and estimated slope values. Performance of the phone duration and fundamental frequency contour models are evaluated quantitatively using statistical measures such as mean absolute error, root mean squared error, correlation and by kappa coefficients, and by correct classification rate in case of discrete symbol prediction.

In this thesis, a binary decision tree is used as an approximation of a nonparametric regression curve. The best fitted decision tree is estimated from data via least squares method. It is investigated how and under which conditions the estimator converges. These asymptotic results then are used to create asymptotic convergence regions.

Multiple studies have documented declines of forest breeding birds in the eastern United States, but the temporal and spatial scales of most studies limit inference regarding large scale bird-habitat trends. A potential solution to this challenge is integrating existing long-term datasets such as the U.S. Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program and U.S. Geological Survey Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) that span large geographic regions. The purposes of this study were to determine if FIA metrics can be related to BBS population indices at multiple spatial and temporal scales and to develop predictive models from these relationships that identify forest conditions favorable to forest songbirds. I accumulated annual route-level BBS data for 4 species guilds (canopy nesting, ground and shrub nesting, cavity nesting, early successional), each containing a minimum of five bird species, from 1966-2004. I developed 41 forest variables describing forest structure at the county level using FIA data from for the 2000 inventory cycle within 5 physiographic regions in 14 states (AL, GA, IL, IN, KY, MD, NC, NY, OH, PA, SC, TN, VA, and WV). I examine spatial relationships between the BBS and FIA data at 3 hierarchical scales: 1) individual BBS routes, 2) FIA units, and 3) and physiographic sections. At the BBS route scale, I buffered each BBS route with a 100m, 1km, and 10km buffer, intersected these buffers with the county boundaries, and developed a weighted average for each forest variable within each buffer, with the weight being a function of the percent of area each county had within a given buffer. I calculated 28 variables describing landscape structure from 1992 NLCD imagery using Fragstats within each buffer size. I developed predictive models relating spatial variations in bird occupancy and abundance to changes in forest and landscape structure using logistic regression and classification and regression trees (CART). Models were developed for each of the 3 buffer sizes, and I pooled the variables selected for the individual models and used them to develop multiscale models with the BBS route still serving as the sample unit. At the FIA unit and physiographic section scales I calculated average abundance/route for each bird species within each FIA unit and physiographic section and extrapolated the plot-level FIA variables to the FIA unit and physiographic section levels. Landscape variables were recalculated within each unit and section using NCLD imagery resampled to a 400 m pixel size. I used regression trees (FIA unit scale) and general linear models (GLM, physiographic section scale) to relate spatial variations in bird abundance to the forest and landscape variables. I examined temporal relationships between the BBS and FIA data between 1966 and 2000. I developed 13 forest variables from statistical summary reports for 4 FIA inventory cycles (1965, 1975, 1989, and 2000) within NY, PA, MD, and WV. I used linear interpolation to estimate annual values of each FIA variable between successive inventory cycles and GLMs to relate annual variations in bird abundance to the forest variables. At the BBS route scale, the CART models accounted for > 50% of the variation in bird presence-absence and abundance. The logistic regression models had sensitivity and specificity rates > 0.50. By incorporating the variables selected for the models developed within each buffer (100m, 1km, and 10km) around the BBS routes into a multiscale model, I was able to further improve the performance of many of the models and gain additional insight regarding the contribution of multiscale influences on bird-habitat relationships. The majority of the best CART models tended to be the multiscale models, and many of the multiscale logistic models had greater sensitivity and specificity than their single-scale counter parts. The relatively fine resolution and extensive coverage of the BBS, FIA, and NLCD datasets coupled with the overlapping multiscale approach of these analyses allowed me to incorporate levels of variation in both habitat and bird occurrence and abundance into my models that likely represented a more comprehensive range of ecological variability in the bird-habitat relationships relative to studies conducted at smaller scales and/or using data at coarser resolutions. At the FIA unit and physiographic section scales, the regression trees accounted for an average of 54.1% of the variability in bird abundance among FIA units, and the GLMs accounted for an average of 66.3% of the variability among physiographic sections. However, increasing the observational and analytical scale to the FIA unit and physiographic section decreased the measurement resolution of the bird abundance and landscape variables. This limits the applicability and interpretive strength of the models developed at these scales, but they may serve as indices to those habitat components exerting the greatest influences on bird abundance at these broader scales. The GLMs relating average annual bird abundance to annual estimates of forest variables developed using statistical report data from the 1965, 1975, 1989, and 2000 FIA inventories explained an average of 62.0% of the variability in annual bird abundance estimates. However, these relationships were a function of both the general habitat characteristics and the trends in bird abundance specific to the 4-state region (MD, NY, PA, and WV) used for these analyses and may not be applicable to other states or regions. The small suite of variables available from the FIA statistical reports and multicollinearity among all forest variables further limited the applicability of these models. As with those developed at the FIA unit and physiographic sections scales, these models may serve as general indices to the habitat components exerting the greatest influences on bird abundance trends through time at regional scales. These results demonstrate that forest variables developed from the FIA, in conjunction with landscape variables, can explain variations in occupancy and abundance estimated from BBS data for forest bird species with a variety of habitat requirements across spatial and temporal scales. / Ph. D.

Le but de cette thèse est d’expliquer la délinquance prolifique de certains délinquants. Nous avançons la thèse que la délinquance prolifique s’explique par la formation plus fréquente de situations criminogènes. Ces situations réfèrent au moment où un délinquant entre en interaction avec une opportunité criminelle dans un contexte favorable au crime. Plus exactement, il s’agit du moment où le délinquant fait face à cette opportunité, mais où le crime n’a pas encore été commis. La formation de situations criminogènes est facilitée par l’interaction et l’interdépendance de trois éléments : la propension à la délinquance de la personne, son entourage criminalisé et son style de vie. Ainsi, la délinquance prolifique ne pourrait être expliquée adéquatement sans tenir compte de l’interaction entre le risque individuel et le risque contextuel. L’objectif général de la présente thèse est de faire la démonstration de l’importance d’une modélisation interactionnelle entre le risque individuel et le risque contextuel afin d’expliquer la délinquance plus prolifique de certains contrevenants. Pour ce faire, 155 contrevenants placés sous la responsabilité de deux établissements des Services correctionnels du Québec et de quatre centres jeunesse du Québec ont complété un protocole d’évaluation par questionnaires auto-administrés. Dans un premier temps (chapitre trois), nous avons décrit et comparé la nature de la délinquance autorévélée des contrevenants de notre échantillon. Ce premier chapitre de résultats a permis de mettre en valeur le fait que ce bassin de contrevenants est similaire à d’autres échantillons de délinquants en ce qui a trait à la nature de leur délinquance, plus particulièrement, au volume, à la variété et à la gravité de leurs crimes. En effet, la majorité des participants rapportent un volume faible de crimes contre la personne et contre les biens alors qu’un petit groupe se démarque par un lambda très élevé (13,1 % des délinquants de l’échantillon sont responsables de 60,3% de tous les crimes rapportés). Environ quatre délinquants sur cinq rapportent avoir commis au moins un crime contre la personne et un crime contre les biens. De plus, plus de 50% de ces derniers rapportent dans au moins quatre sous-catégories. Finalement, bien que les délinquants de notre échantillon aient un IGC (indice de gravité de la criminalité) moyen relativement faible (médiane = 77), près de 40% des contrevenants rapportent avoir commis au moins un des deux crimes les plus graves recensés dans cette étude (décharger une arme et vol qualifié). Le second objectif spécifique était d’explorer, au chapitre quatre, l’interaction entre les caractéristiques personnelles, l’entourage et le style de vie des délinquants dans la formation de situations criminogènes. Les personnes ayant une propension à la délinquance plus élevée semblent avoir tendance à être davantage entourées de personnes criminalisées et à avoir un style de vie plus oisif. L’entourage criminalisé semble également influencer le style de vie de ces délinquants. Ainsi, l’interdépendance entre ces trois éléments facilite la formation plus fréquente de situations criminogènes et crée une conjoncture propice à l’émergence de la délinquance prolifique. Le dernier objectif spécifique de la thèse, qui a été couvert dans le chapitre cinq, était d’analyser l’impact de la formation de situations criminogènes sur la nature de la délinquance. Les analyses de régression linéaires multiples et les arbres de régression ont permis de souligner la contribution des caractéristiques personnelles, de l’entourage et du style de vie dans l’explication de la nature de la délinquance. D’un côté, les analyses de régression (modèles additifs) suggèrent que l’ensemble des éléments favorisant la formation de situations criminogènes apporte une contribution unique à l’explication de la délinquance. D’un autre côté, les arbres de régression nous ont permis de mieux comprendre l’interaction entre les éléments dans l’explication de la délinquance prolifique. En effet, un positionnement plus faible sur certains éléments peut être compensé par un positionnement plus élevé sur d’autres. De plus, l’accumulation d’éléments favorisant la formation de situations criminogènes ne se fait pas de façon linéaire. Ces conclusions sont appuyées sur des proportions de variance expliquée plus élevées que celles des régressions linéaires multiples. En conclusion, mettre l’accent que sur un seul élément (la personne et sa propension à la délinquance ou le contexte et ses opportunités) ou leur combinaison de façon simplement additive ne permet pas de rendre justice à la complexité de l’émergence de la délinquance prolifique. En mettant à l’épreuve empiriquement cette idée généralement admise, cette thèse permet donc de souligner l’importance de considérer l’interaction entre le risque individuel et le risque contextuel dans l’explication de la délinquance prolifique. / The purpose of this dissertation is to explain the prolific delinquency of certain offenders. We suggest that prolific delinquency is explained by the formation of a greater number of criminogenic situations. A criminogenic situation makes reference to situations wherein an offender may interact with a criminal opportunity in an environment which is conducive to crime. More precisely, a criminogenic situation is the moment when an offender faces this opportunity, but the crime has not yet been committed. The formation of criminogenic situations facilitated by the interaction and interdependence of three elements: criminal propensity, criminal social environment and deviant lifestyle. Thus, prolific delinquency cannot be adequately explained without accounting for the interaction between individual and contextual risk. The overall objective of this dissertation is to demonstrate the importance of a model based on the interaction between individual and contextual risk to explain the prolific delinquency of some offenders. To accomplish this objective, one hundred and fifty-five offenders, under the responsibility of Services Correctionels du Québec and four Centres Jeunesse, completed an evaluation through self-administered questionnaires. The first objective of this study was to describe and compare, in Chapter Three, the delinquent nature of the offenders in our sample. Our results revealed that our sample of offenders is similar to that of other samples of delinquents; we found this with respect to the nature of their delinquency, and in particular, the volume, diversity and severity of their crimes. Indeed, the majority of the participants reported a small volume of crimes against a person and property. A small group distinguished themselves with a very high lambda (13.1% of offenders in the sample are responsible for 60.3 % of all crimes reported). Additionally, more than four out of five offenders reported having committed at least one crime against a person and one crime against property. Moreover, 50 % reported having committed crimes in at least four subcategories. Finally, although the offenders in our sample have a relatively low IGC (gravity scale) mean (median = 77), nearly 40 % of the offenders reported having committed at least one of the two most serious crimes identified in this study (discharging firearm and robbery). The second specific objective was to explore, in Chapter four, the interaction between personal characteristics, social environment and the lifestyle of offenders which may lead to criminogenic situation. People with a higher propensity to crime tend to be surrounded by other criminalized people and have a more idle lifestyle. The criminalized social environment tends to also influence the lifestyle of these offenders. Thus, the interdependence between these three elements can lead to criminogenic situations and can create a climate conducive to the emergence of prolific delinquency. The last specific objective of this dissertation, covered in Chapter Five, is to analyze the impact of factors leading to situational crime on the nature of the delinquency. Analyses of multiple linear regression and regression trees highlighted the contribution of personal characteristics, social environment and lifestyle in explaining the nature of the crime. On the one hand, regression analyses (additive models) suggest that all the elements leading to situational crime make a unique contribution to the explanation of delinquency. However, on the other hand, regression trees allowed us to better understand the interaction between the elements which underlie prolific delinquency. For example, a lower position on certain items may be offset by a higher position on others. Moreover, the accumulation of risk factors which lead to situational crime does not happen in a linear fashion. These conclusions are supported by the proportions of explained variance which were higher for the regression trees than for the multiple linear regressions. In conclusion, focusing simply on one element (the person and their criminal propensity or the context and its opportunities) or on their combination in a simply additive manner does not represent the reality of criminal phenomenon. This dissertation therefore serves to highlight the importance of considering the interaction between the individual risk and the contextual risk in explaining prolific delinquency.

Le but de cette thèse est d’expliquer la délinquance prolifique de certains délinquants. Nous avançons la thèse que la délinquance prolifique s’explique par la formation plus fréquente de situations criminogènes. Ces situations réfèrent au moment où un délinquant entre en interaction avec une opportunité criminelle dans un contexte favorable au crime. Plus exactement, il s’agit du moment où le délinquant fait face à cette opportunité, mais où le crime n’a pas encore été commis. La formation de situations criminogènes est facilitée par l’interaction et l’interdépendance de trois éléments : la propension à la délinquance de la personne, son entourage criminalisé et son style de vie. Ainsi, la délinquance prolifique ne pourrait être expliquée adéquatement sans tenir compte de l’interaction entre le risque individuel et le risque contextuel. L’objectif général de la présente thèse est de faire la démonstration de l’importance d’une modélisation interactionnelle entre le risque individuel et le risque contextuel afin d’expliquer la délinquance plus prolifique de certains contrevenants. Pour ce faire, 155 contrevenants placés sous la responsabilité de deux établissements des Services correctionnels du Québec et de quatre centres jeunesse du Québec ont complété un protocole d’évaluation par questionnaires auto-administrés. Dans un premier temps (chapitre trois), nous avons décrit et comparé la nature de la délinquance autorévélée des contrevenants de notre échantillon. Ce premier chapitre de résultats a permis de mettre en valeur le fait que ce bassin de contrevenants est similaire à d’autres échantillons de délinquants en ce qui a trait à la nature de leur délinquance, plus particulièrement, au volume, à la variété et à la gravité de leurs crimes. En effet, la majorité des participants rapportent un volume faible de crimes contre la personne et contre les biens alors qu’un petit groupe se démarque par un lambda très élevé (13,1 % des délinquants de l’échantillon sont responsables de 60,3% de tous les crimes rapportés). Environ quatre délinquants sur cinq rapportent avoir commis au moins un crime contre la personne et un crime contre les biens. De plus, plus de 50% de ces derniers rapportent dans au moins quatre sous-catégories. Finalement, bien que les délinquants de notre échantillon aient un IGC (indice de gravité de la criminalité) moyen relativement faible (médiane = 77), près de 40% des contrevenants rapportent avoir commis au moins un des deux crimes les plus graves recensés dans cette étude (décharger une arme et vol qualifié). Le second objectif spécifique était d’explorer, au chapitre quatre, l’interaction entre les caractéristiques personnelles, l’entourage et le style de vie des délinquants dans la formation de situations criminogènes. Les personnes ayant une propension à la délinquance plus élevée semblent avoir tendance à être davantage entourées de personnes criminalisées et à avoir un style de vie plus oisif. L’entourage criminalisé semble également influencer le style de vie de ces délinquants. Ainsi, l’interdépendance entre ces trois éléments facilite la formation plus fréquente de situations criminogènes et crée une conjoncture propice à l’émergence de la délinquance prolifique. Le dernier objectif spécifique de la thèse, qui a été couvert dans le chapitre cinq, était d’analyser l’impact de la formation de situations criminogènes sur la nature de la délinquance. Les analyses de régression linéaires multiples et les arbres de régression ont permis de souligner la contribution des caractéristiques personnelles, de l’entourage et du style de vie dans l’explication de la nature de la délinquance. D’un côté, les analyses de régression (modèles additifs) suggèrent que l’ensemble des éléments favorisant la formation de situations criminogènes apporte une contribution unique à l’explication de la délinquance. D’un autre côté, les arbres de régression nous ont permis de mieux comprendre l’interaction entre les éléments dans l’explication de la délinquance prolifique. En effet, un positionnement plus faible sur certains éléments peut être compensé par un positionnement plus élevé sur d’autres. De plus, l’accumulation d’éléments favorisant la formation de situations criminogènes ne se fait pas de façon linéaire. Ces conclusions sont appuyées sur des proportions de variance expliquée plus élevées que celles des régressions linéaires multiples. En conclusion, mettre l’accent que sur un seul élément (la personne et sa propension à la délinquance ou le contexte et ses opportunités) ou leur combinaison de façon simplement additive ne permet pas de rendre justice à la complexité de l’émergence de la délinquance prolifique. En mettant à l’épreuve empiriquement cette idée généralement admise, cette thèse permet donc de souligner l’importance de considérer l’interaction entre le risque individuel et le risque contextuel dans l’explication de la délinquance prolifique. / The purpose of this dissertation is to explain the prolific delinquency of certain offenders. We suggest that prolific delinquency is explained by the formation of a greater number of criminogenic situations. A criminogenic situation makes reference to situations wherein an offender may interact with a criminal opportunity in an environment which is conducive to crime. More precisely, a criminogenic situation is the moment when an offender faces this opportunity, but the crime has not yet been committed. The formation of criminogenic situations facilitated by the interaction and interdependence of three elements: criminal propensity, criminal social environment and deviant lifestyle. Thus, prolific delinquency cannot be adequately explained without accounting for the interaction between individual and contextual risk. The overall objective of this dissertation is to demonstrate the importance of a model based on the interaction between individual and contextual risk to explain the prolific delinquency of some offenders. To accomplish this objective, one hundred and fifty-five offenders, under the responsibility of Services Correctionels du Québec and four Centres Jeunesse, completed an evaluation through self-administered questionnaires. The first objective of this study was to describe and compare, in Chapter Three, the delinquent nature of the offenders in our sample. Our results revealed that our sample of offenders is similar to that of other samples of delinquents; we found this with respect to the nature of their delinquency, and in particular, the volume, diversity and severity of their crimes. Indeed, the majority of the participants reported a small volume of crimes against a person and property. A small group distinguished themselves with a very high lambda (13.1% of offenders in the sample are responsible for 60.3 % of all crimes reported). Additionally, more than four out of five offenders reported having committed at least one crime against a person and one crime against property. Moreover, 50 % reported having committed crimes in at least four subcategories. Finally, although the offenders in our sample have a relatively low IGC (gravity scale) mean (median = 77), nearly 40 % of the offenders reported having committed at least one of the two most serious crimes identified in this study (discharging firearm and robbery). The second specific objective was to explore, in Chapter four, the interaction between personal characteristics, social environment and the lifestyle of offenders which may lead to criminogenic situation. People with a higher propensity to crime tend to be surrounded by other criminalized people and have a more idle lifestyle. The criminalized social environment tends to also influence the lifestyle of these offenders. Thus, the interdependence between these three elements can lead to criminogenic situations and can create a climate conducive to the emergence of prolific delinquency. The last specific objective of this dissertation, covered in Chapter Five, is to analyze the impact of factors leading to situational crime on the nature of the delinquency. Analyses of multiple linear regression and regression trees highlighted the contribution of personal characteristics, social environment and lifestyle in explaining the nature of the crime. On the one hand, regression analyses (additive models) suggest that all the elements leading to situational crime make a unique contribution to the explanation of delinquency. However, on the other hand, regression trees allowed us to better understand the interaction between the elements which underlie prolific delinquency. For example, a lower position on certain items may be offset by a higher position on others. Moreover, the accumulation of risk factors which lead to situational crime does not happen in a linear fashion. These conclusions are supported by the proportions of explained variance which were higher for the regression trees than for the multiple linear regressions. In conclusion, focusing simply on one element (the person and their criminal propensity or the context and its opportunities) or on their combination in a simply additive manner does not represent the reality of criminal phenomenon. This dissertation therefore serves to highlight the importance of considering the interaction between the individual risk and the contextual risk in explaining prolific delinquency.

The incidence of many arboviral diseases is largely associated with social and environmental conditions. Ross River virus (RRV) is the most prevalent arboviral disease in Australia. It has long been recognised that the transmission pattern of RRV is sensitive to socio-ecological factors including climate variation, population movement, mosquito-density and vegetation types. This study aimed to assess the relationships between socio-environmental variability and the transmission of RRV using spatio-temporal analytic methods. Computerised data files of daily RRV disease cases and daily climatic variables in Brisbane, Queensland during 1985-2001 were obtained from the Queensland Department of Health and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, respectively. Available information on other socio-ecological factors was also collected from relevant government agencies as follows: 1) socio-demographic data from the Australia Bureau of Statistics; 2) information on vegetation (littoral wetlands, ephemeral wetlands, open freshwater, riparian vegetation, melaleuca open forests, wet eucalypt, open forests and other bushland) from Brisbane City Council; 3) tidal activities from the Queensland Department of Transport; and 4) mosquito-density from Brisbane City Council. Principal components analysis (PCA) was used as an exploratory technique for discovering spatial and temporal pattern of RRV distribution. The PCA results show that the first principal component accounted for approximately 57% of the information, which contained the four seasonal rates and loaded highest and positively for autumn. K-means cluster analysis indicates that the seasonality of RRV is characterised by three groups with high, medium and low incidence of disease, and it suggests that there are at least three different disease ecologies. The variation in spatio-temporal patterns of RRV indicates a complex ecology that is unlikely to be explained by a single dominant transmission route across these three groupings. Therefore, there is need to explore socio-economic and environmental determinants of RRV disease at the statistical local area (SLA) level. Spatial distribution analysis and multiple negative binomial regression models were employed to identify the socio-economic and environmental determinants of RRV disease at both the city and local (ie, SLA) levels. The results show that RRV activity was primarily concentrated in the northeast, northwest and southeast areas in Brisbane. The negative binomial regression models reveal that RRV incidence for the whole of the Brisbane area was significantly associated with Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) at a lag of 3 months (Relative Risk (RR): 1.12; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.06 - 1.17), the proportion of people with lower levels of education (RR: 1.02; 95% CI: 1.01 - 1.03), the proportion of labour workers (RR: 0.97; 95% CI: 0.95 - 1.00) and vegetation density (RR: 1.02; 95% CI: 1.00 - 1.04). However, RRV incidence for high risk areas (ie, SLAs with higher incidence of RRV) was significantly associated with mosquito density (RR: 1.01; 95% CI: 1.00 - 1.01), SOI at a lag of 3 months (RR: 1.48; 95% CI: 1.23 - 1.78), human population density (RR: 3.77; 95% CI: 1.35 - 10.51), the proportion of indigenous population (RR: 0.56; 95% CI: 0.37 - 0.87) and the proportion of overseas visitors (RR: 0.57; 95% CI: 0.35 - 0.92). It is acknowledged that some of these risk factors, while statistically significant, are small in magnitude. However, given the high incidence of RRV, they may still be important in practice. The results of this study suggest that the spatial pattern of RRV disease in Brisbane is determined by a combination of ecological, socio-economic and environmental factors. The possibility of developing an epidemic forecasting system for RRV disease was explored using the multivariate Seasonal Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) technique. The results of this study suggest that climatic variability, particularly precipitation, may have played a significant role in the transmission of RRV disease in Brisbane. This finding cannot entirely be explained by confounding factors such as other socio-ecological conditions because they have been unlikely to change dramatically on a monthly time scale in this city over the past two decades. SARIMA models show that monthly precipitation at a lag 2 months (=0.004,p=0.031) was statistically significantly associated with RRV disease. It suggests that there may be 50 more cases a year for an increase of 100 mm precipitation on average in Brisbane. The predictive values in the model were generally consistent with actual values (root-mean-square error (RMSE): 1.96). Therefore, this model may have applications as a decision support tool in disease control and risk-management planning programs in Brisbane. The Polynomial distributed lag (PDL) time series regression models were performed to examine the associations between rainfall, mosquito density and the occurrence of RRV after adjusting for season and auto-correlation. The PDL model was used because rainfall and mosquito density can affect not merely RRV occurring in the same month, but in several subsequent months. The rationale for the use of the PDL technique is that it increases the precision of the estimates. We developed an epidemic forecasting model to predict incidence of RRV disease. The results show that 95% and 85% of the variation in the RRV disease was accounted for by the mosquito density and rainfall, respectively. The predictive values in the model were generally consistent with actual values (RMSE: 1.25). The model diagnosis reveals that the residuals were randomly distributed with no significant auto-correlation. The results of this study suggest that PDL models may be better than SARIMA models (R-square increased and RMSE decreased). The findings of this study may facilitate the development of early warning systems for the control and prevention of this widespread disease. Further analyses were conducted using classification trees to identify major mosquito species of Ross River virus (RRV) transmission and explore the threshold of mosquito density for RRV disease in Brisbane, Australia. The results show that Ochlerotatus vigilax (RR: 1.028; 95% CI: 1.001 - 1.057) and Culex annulirostris (RR: 1.013, 95% CI: 1.003 - 1.023) were significantly associated with RRV disease cycles at a lag of 1 month. The presence of RRV was associated with average monthly mosquito density of 72 Ochlerotatus vigilax and 52 Culex annulirostris per light trap. These results may also have applications as a decision support tool in disease control and risk management planning programs. As RRV has significant impact on population health, industry, and tourism, it is important to develop an epidemic forecast system for this disease. The results of this study show the disease surveillance data can be integrated with social, biological and environmental databases. These data can provide additional input into the development of epidemic forecasting models. These attempts may have significant implications in environmental health decision-making and practices, and may help health authorities determine public health priorities more wisely and use resources more effectively and efficiently.

Background Recently, Taiwan has been faced with the migration of numbers of women from Southeast Asian (SEA) countries. It was estimated that the aggregate number of SEA wives in Taiwan was more than 131,000 in 2007 (Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 2006).These women are often colloquially called, “foreign brides” or “alien brides”; most of them are seen as commodities of the marriage trade, whose marriages are arranged by marriage brokers. Some women can be regarded as being sold for profit by their families. These young Vietnamese immigrant women come to Taiwan alone, often with a single suitcase, and are culturally and geographically distinct from Taiwanese peoples; the changes in culture, interpersonal relationships, personal roles, language, value systems and attitudes exert many negative impacts on their health, so greater levels of acculturation stress can be expected. This particular group of immigrant women are highly susceptible and vulnerable to health problems, due to language barriers, cultural conflicts, social and interpersonal isolation, and lack of support systems. The aims of this study were to examine the relationships between acculturation and immigrantspecific distress and health outcomes among Vietnamese transnational married women in Taiwan. This study focuses on Vietnamese intermarriage immigrants, the largest immigrant group in the period from1994 through to 2007. Methodology The quantitative study was divided into two phases: the first was a pilot study and the second the main study. This study was conducted in a communitybased health centre in the south of Taiwan, targeting Taiwanese households with Vietnamese wives, including the Tanam, Kaohsiung, and Pentong areas. This involved convenience sampling with participants drawn from registration records at the Public Health Centre of Kaohsiung and used the snowball technique to recruit 213 participants. The instruments included the following measures: (1) Socio-demographic information (2) Acculturation Scale (3) Acculturative Distress Scale, and (4) HRQOL. Questions related to immigrant women’s acculturation level and health status were modified. Quantitative data was coded and entered into the SPSS and SAS program for statistical analysis. The data analysis process involved descriptive, bivariate, multivariate multiple regression, and classification and regression trees (CART). Results Six hypotheses of this study were validated. Demographic data was presented and it revealed that there are statically significant differences between levels of acculturation and years of residency in Taiwan, number of children, marital status, education, religion of spouse, employment status of spouse and Chinese ethnic background by Pearson correlation and Kendall’s Tau-b or Spearman test. The correlations of daily activity, language usage, social interaction, ethnic identity, and total of acculturation score with DI tend to be negatively significant. In addition, the result of the one-way ANOVA supported the hypothesis that the different types of acculturation had a differential effect on immigrant distress. The marginalized group showed a greater immigrant distresses in comparison with the integrated group. Furthermore, the comparison t-test revealed that the Vietnamese immigrant women showed a lower score than Taiwanese women in HRQOL. The result showed higher acculturative stress associated with lower score of HRQOL on bodily pain, vitality, social functioning, mental health, and mental component summary. The CART procedure to the conclusion that the predictive variables for the physical component of the SF-36 (PCS) were: alienation, occupation, loss, language, and discrimination (predicted 28.8% of the total variance explained). The predictive variables for the mental component of the SF-36 (MCS) were: alienation, occupation, loss, language, and novelty (predicted 28.4% of the total variance explained). Conclusion As these Vietnamese immigrant women become part of Taiwanese communities and society, the need becomes apparent to understand how they acculturate to Taiwan and to the health status they acquire. The findings have implications for nursing practice, research, and will assist the Taiwanese government to formulate appropriate immigrant health policies for these SEA immigrant women. Finally, the application of this research will positively contribute to the health and well being of thousands of immigrant women and their families.