This thesis examines empirical and theoretical issues related to the role of uninsurable individual risk and heterogeneity in macroeconomics. The thesis includes four chapters. The first chapter uses data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) to test full risk-sharing among North American households. The second chapter is a short essay where I use simulated data to show how the method applied in the previous chapter can be used to distinguish between partial risk sharing and imperfect credit markets. The third chapter develops a heterogeneous agent dynamic general equilibrium model which jointly models aggregate saving and employment. Finally, the fourth chapter investigates empirically the ability of financial market incompleteness to help explaining the equity premium puzzle. The central motivation throughout this dissertation is the recognition that the interaction between cross-sectional volatility and aggregate volatility is of fundamental importance to understand the way we should model macroeconomic aggregates such as aggregate consumption, asset prices and business cycle fluctuations.

This qualitative research aims to explain the individuals relationship between the level of hierarchy, and experiences, and the impact of Risk Management Control (RMC) on individuals risk assessments. The study focuses on a Swedish fintech company that offers diverse financial services.  Through a case study approach, the authors conducted an in-depth examination of the company ́s risk management practices and the factors that influence individuals risk assessments. The findings of the study reveal a two-dimensional model that takes into account both the level of hierarchy and experience.  The study ́s conclusion emphasizes that the combination of a high level of hierarchy and a high level of experience significantly influence how RMC affects individuals risk assessments. Furthermore, the paper highlights the importance of RMC within organizations, particularly in rapidly expanding industries facing emerging threats. It argues that by implementing RMC practices, organizations can ensure effective risk assessment throughout the entire organization, regardless of individuals hierarchical positions or expertise. The study emphasizes the significance of individuals risk assessments in shaping the overall risk strategy and emphasizes the need for consistent and standardized guidelines for risk management. Such guidelines empower all employees to act as a risk manager within their respective areas of expertise.  Overall, this research contributes to the understanding of how organizational factors and individual experiences interact within RMC. By exploring these dynamics, the study provides valuable insights for organizations to enhance their risk management practices.

Being bullied has been recognized as a problem within the U.S. school systems. Individuals who have been bullied physically, verbally, relationally, or electronically typically suffer from mental health problems as a result. As it has been shown that males are more at risk for being bullied, it is important to understand what variables can predict males being bullied in order to design appropriate preventions and interventions to curb bullying in the schools. Four forms of school bullying behaviors among U.S. adolescent males and their association with type of bullying, school environment, and school performance and engagement variables were examined. Data were examined from the National Crime Victimization Survey School Crime Supplement. A sample of 1,636 males ages 14 to 18 was used from the survey. A series of logistic regression analyses were performed for each type of bullying (physical, verbal, relational, and cyber) and school environment (presence of gangs, guns, graffiti, drugs, and number of school safety measures in place) and school performance and engagement predictors (grades, extracurricular activity engagement, truancy, and number of fights). Linear regression analyses were also used to look at all the predictor variables and the frequency of each type of bullying. Results: The R2 values for the logistic regression analyses were quite small. However, trends could be observed from the odds ratios showing that fighting, drug availability, and graffiti were predictive of all four forms of bullying. The linear regression analyses also produced small R2 values. Effect plots were created to identify which significant variables had a greater effect on the frequency of being bullied. Conclusion: Schools should focus on removing graffiti and drugs from the schools. Prevention work should be used to help students find alternative ways to deal with problems other than resorting to fighting. Problems with reliability and validity of the survey are also discussed.

Concern about environmental injustice has been driving the recent effort to characterize risks from exposures to air toxics at very fine spatial resolutions. However, few studies seek to understand the potential policy implications of regulating risks at increasingly finer spatial resolutions and the impact of resulting policies on distribution of risks. To address this gap, the broad question for this research is how could the choice of spatial resolution for regulation of risks from toxic air pollutants affect emission controls and the consequences thereof? This research develops a formal model of a hypothetical decision maker choosing emission controls within a risk-based regulatory framework. The model suggests that optimal controls on air toxics emissions vary depending on the spatial resolution chosen to regulate risks; net social costs are non-decreasing as one regulates at finer and finer spatial resolutions. An empirical application of the model using air toxic emission data for Escambia and Santa Rosa Counties in Florida demonstrates the sensitivity of optimal emissions to spatial resolution chosen for regulation. The research then investigates the equity implications of regulating at different spatial resolutions with regard to the spatial distribution of cancer risks. The empirical results indicate that regulation at finer spatial resolutions could involve a tradeoff between costs and equitable distribution of risks. For example, at a threshold cancer risk of 100 in a million, regulating at census block level resolution could be twice as costly as regulating at census tract resolution while reducing the maximum individual risk by almost half. Further, regulation at finer spatial resolutions might not address environmental injustice by itself unless such concerns are more explicitly incorporated into emission control decisions. Finally, this research shows that spatial resolution at which air toxics risks are regulated could matter in predictable ways even after taking into account the uncertainties that the decision maker faces.

Submitted by Marcio Emanuel Paixão Santos (marcio.santos@ucsal.br) on 2018-06-21T20:45:38Z No. of bitstreams: 1 DISSERTACAOANTONIOCARLOSSOUZARAMOS.pdf: 4789996 bytes, checksum: 16396b19d7ddef4aedb4c1eb4a9becb0 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Linda Bulhosa (linda.gomes@ucsal.br) on 2018-06-25T13:23:09Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 DISSERTACAOANTONIOCARLOSSOUZARAMOS.pdf: 4789996 bytes, checksum: 16396b19d7ddef4aedb4c1eb4a9becb0 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-06-25T13:23:09Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 DISSERTACAOANTONIOCARLOSSOUZARAMOS.pdf: 4789996 bytes, checksum: 16396b19d7ddef4aedb4c1eb4a9becb0 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-10-16 / Este estudo tem por finalidade quantificar, analisar e avaliar os riscos e as consequências da possível ocorrência de um acidente químico ampliado, decorrente do sistema de transporte através de dutos com elevada temperatura e/ou pressão interna e armazenamento em tanque pressurizado e não pressurizado de petróleo e seus derivados, constituindo-se em sérios riscos para a população e o meio ambiente no entorno das instalações da indústria petrolífera, existente no município de Madre de Deus/BA. A partir da distribuição da população, das características meteorológicas e físicas da região, definidas as frequências para as ocorrências dos trinta e um eventos simulados componentes desse estudo, e estabelecida à caracterização dos demais efeitos físicos decorrentes de radiação térmica e de impulso de sobrepressão em ondas de choque e através da utilização de modelos de vulnerabilidade, foi possível estimar a probabilidade para a ocorrência de vítimas fatais, para cada um dos cenários acidentais simulados. O desenvolvimento das simulações dos trinta e um eventos foi feito com auxílio de sistema computacional. A meta principal do estudo foi identificar os impactos provenientes de acidentes maiores, afetando agrupamentos de pessoas das comunidades circunvizinhas das instalações industriais de transporte e armazenamento de combustíveis derivados do petróleo; por essa razão, o risco social é o índice prioritário neste estudo de avaliação e tem a curva de tolerabilidade risco F-N como seu principal indicador. A partir dos resultados obtidos paraos riscos de ocupação dos equipamentos da indústria petrolífera no município,através do risco social (intolerável) e do risco individual (intolerável para a dutovia e ALARP para os tanques), e conforme comparação com os padrões da CETESB, concluiu-se que as instalações da indústria petrolífera existentes no município de Madre de Deus representam um elevado nível de riscos para a população externa residente no entorno dos equipamentos de transporte (dutos) e de armazenamento (esferas e tanques) para a probabilidade de ocorrência de acidente químico ampliado. / This study aims to quantify, analyze and evaluate the risks and consequences of the possible occurrence an expanded chemical accident caused by transportation systems through ducts at high temperatures and / or internal pressures and storage in pressurized and not pressurized oil and derivatives tanks, constituting a serious risk to people and the environment in the vicinity of the oil industry facilities, existing on Madre de Deus city / BA. Based on the population distribution, meteorological and physical characteristics of the region, defined frequencies for the occurrences of thirty one simulated events, and established the characterization of other physical effects arising from thermal radiation and pulse pressure in shock waves and through the use of different vulnerability, it was possible to estimate the probability for the occurrence of deaths for each accidental scenario simulated. The development of simulations of thirty one events was done with the assistance a computer system. The main goal of the study was to identify the impacts from major accidents, affecting groups of people from the surrounding communities of the industrial facilities of transport and storage of petroleum fuels; for this reason, the social risk is the priority index in this evaluation study and has the risk tolerance curve F-N as it’s main indicator. Based on the results obtained for the risk of occupation of the equipment of the oil industry in the city, through social risk (intolerable) and individual risk (intolerable to the pipeline and ALARP for tanks), and as compared to the standards of CETESB, it is concluded that the site of the oil industry in the Madre de Deus city, incur a high level of risk to foreign population residents in the vicinity of transport facilities (pipeline) and storage (tanks and spheres) to the probability of occurrence of an accident chemical amplified.

This thesis examines empirical and theoretical issues related to the role of uninsurable individual risk and heterogeneity in macroeconomics. The thesis includes four chapters. The first chapter uses data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) to test full risk-sharing among North American households. The second chapter is a short essay where I use simulated data to show how the method applied in the previous chapter can be used to distinguish between partial risk sharing and imperfect credit markets. The third chapter develops a heterogeneous agent dynamic general equilibrium model which jointly models aggregate saving and employment. Finally, the fourth chapter investigates empirically the ability of financial market incompleteness to help explaining the equity premium puzzle. The central motivation throughout this dissertation is the recognition that the interaction between cross-sectional volatility and aggregate volatility is of fundamental importance to understand the way we should model macroeconomic aggregates such as aggregate consumption, asset prices and business cycle fluctuations.<p><p> / Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

Le but de cette thèse est d’expliquer la délinquance prolifique de certains délinquants. Nous avançons la thèse que la délinquance prolifique s’explique par la formation plus fréquente de situations criminogènes. Ces situations réfèrent au moment où un délinquant entre en interaction avec une opportunité criminelle dans un contexte favorable au crime. Plus exactement, il s’agit du moment où le délinquant fait face à cette opportunité, mais où le crime n’a pas encore été commis. La formation de situations criminogènes est facilitée par l’interaction et l’interdépendance de trois éléments : la propension à la délinquance de la personne, son entourage criminalisé et son style de vie. Ainsi, la délinquance prolifique ne pourrait être expliquée adéquatement sans tenir compte de l’interaction entre le risque individuel et le risque contextuel. L’objectif général de la présente thèse est de faire la démonstration de l’importance d’une modélisation interactionnelle entre le risque individuel et le risque contextuel afin d’expliquer la délinquance plus prolifique de certains contrevenants. Pour ce faire, 155 contrevenants placés sous la responsabilité de deux établissements des Services correctionnels du Québec et de quatre centres jeunesse du Québec ont complété un protocole d’évaluation par questionnaires auto-administrés. Dans un premier temps (chapitre trois), nous avons décrit et comparé la nature de la délinquance autorévélée des contrevenants de notre échantillon. Ce premier chapitre de résultats a permis de mettre en valeur le fait que ce bassin de contrevenants est similaire à d’autres échantillons de délinquants en ce qui a trait à la nature de leur délinquance, plus particulièrement, au volume, à la variété et à la gravité de leurs crimes. En effet, la majorité des participants rapportent un volume faible de crimes contre la personne et contre les biens alors qu’un petit groupe se démarque par un lambda très élevé (13,1 % des délinquants de l’échantillon sont responsables de 60,3% de tous les crimes rapportés). Environ quatre délinquants sur cinq rapportent avoir commis au moins un crime contre la personne et un crime contre les biens. De plus, plus de 50% de ces derniers rapportent dans au moins quatre sous-catégories. Finalement, bien que les délinquants de notre échantillon aient un IGC (indice de gravité de la criminalité) moyen relativement faible (médiane = 77), près de 40% des contrevenants rapportent avoir commis au moins un des deux crimes les plus graves recensés dans cette étude (décharger une arme et vol qualifié). Le second objectif spécifique était d’explorer, au chapitre quatre, l’interaction entre les caractéristiques personnelles, l’entourage et le style de vie des délinquants dans la formation de situations criminogènes. Les personnes ayant une propension à la délinquance plus élevée semblent avoir tendance à être davantage entourées de personnes criminalisées et à avoir un style de vie plus oisif. L’entourage criminalisé semble également influencer le style de vie de ces délinquants. Ainsi, l’interdépendance entre ces trois éléments facilite la formation plus fréquente de situations criminogènes et crée une conjoncture propice à l’émergence de la délinquance prolifique. Le dernier objectif spécifique de la thèse, qui a été couvert dans le chapitre cinq, était d’analyser l’impact de la formation de situations criminogènes sur la nature de la délinquance. Les analyses de régression linéaires multiples et les arbres de régression ont permis de souligner la contribution des caractéristiques personnelles, de l’entourage et du style de vie dans l’explication de la nature de la délinquance. D’un côté, les analyses de régression (modèles additifs) suggèrent que l’ensemble des éléments favorisant la formation de situations criminogènes apporte une contribution unique à l’explication de la délinquance. D’un autre côté, les arbres de régression nous ont permis de mieux comprendre l’interaction entre les éléments dans l’explication de la délinquance prolifique. En effet, un positionnement plus faible sur certains éléments peut être compensé par un positionnement plus élevé sur d’autres. De plus, l’accumulation d’éléments favorisant la formation de situations criminogènes ne se fait pas de façon linéaire. Ces conclusions sont appuyées sur des proportions de variance expliquée plus élevées que celles des régressions linéaires multiples. En conclusion, mettre l’accent que sur un seul élément (la personne et sa propension à la délinquance ou le contexte et ses opportunités) ou leur combinaison de façon simplement additive ne permet pas de rendre justice à la complexité de l’émergence de la délinquance prolifique. En mettant à l’épreuve empiriquement cette idée généralement admise, cette thèse permet donc de souligner l’importance de considérer l’interaction entre le risque individuel et le risque contextuel dans l’explication de la délinquance prolifique. / The purpose of this dissertation is to explain the prolific delinquency of certain offenders. We suggest that prolific delinquency is explained by the formation of a greater number of criminogenic situations. A criminogenic situation makes reference to situations wherein an offender may interact with a criminal opportunity in an environment which is conducive to crime. More precisely, a criminogenic situation is the moment when an offender faces this opportunity, but the crime has not yet been committed. The formation of criminogenic situations facilitated by the interaction and interdependence of three elements: criminal propensity, criminal social environment and deviant lifestyle. Thus, prolific delinquency cannot be adequately explained without accounting for the interaction between individual and contextual risk. The overall objective of this dissertation is to demonstrate the importance of a model based on the interaction between individual and contextual risk to explain the prolific delinquency of some offenders. To accomplish this objective, one hundred and fifty-five offenders, under the responsibility of Services Correctionels du Québec and four Centres Jeunesse, completed an evaluation through self-administered questionnaires. The first objective of this study was to describe and compare, in Chapter Three, the delinquent nature of the offenders in our sample. Our results revealed that our sample of offenders is similar to that of other samples of delinquents; we found this with respect to the nature of their delinquency, and in particular, the volume, diversity and severity of their crimes. Indeed, the majority of the participants reported a small volume of crimes against a person and property. A small group distinguished themselves with a very high lambda (13.1% of offenders in the sample are responsible for 60.3 % of all crimes reported). Additionally, more than four out of five offenders reported having committed at least one crime against a person and one crime against property. Moreover, 50 % reported having committed crimes in at least four subcategories. Finally, although the offenders in our sample have a relatively low IGC (gravity scale) mean (median = 77), nearly 40 % of the offenders reported having committed at least one of the two most serious crimes identified in this study (discharging firearm and robbery). The second specific objective was to explore, in Chapter four, the interaction between personal characteristics, social environment and the lifestyle of offenders which may lead to criminogenic situation. People with a higher propensity to crime tend to be surrounded by other criminalized people and have a more idle lifestyle. The criminalized social environment tends to also influence the lifestyle of these offenders. Thus, the interdependence between these three elements can lead to criminogenic situations and can create a climate conducive to the emergence of prolific delinquency. The last specific objective of this dissertation, covered in Chapter Five, is to analyze the impact of factors leading to situational crime on the nature of the delinquency. Analyses of multiple linear regression and regression trees highlighted the contribution of personal characteristics, social environment and lifestyle in explaining the nature of the crime. On the one hand, regression analyses (additive models) suggest that all the elements leading to situational crime make a unique contribution to the explanation of delinquency. However, on the other hand, regression trees allowed us to better understand the interaction between the elements which underlie prolific delinquency. For example, a lower position on certain items may be offset by a higher position on others. Moreover, the accumulation of risk factors which lead to situational crime does not happen in a linear fashion. These conclusions are supported by the proportions of explained variance which were higher for the regression trees than for the multiple linear regressions. In conclusion, focusing simply on one element (the person and their criminal propensity or the context and its opportunities) or on their combination in a simply additive manner does not represent the reality of criminal phenomenon. This dissertation therefore serves to highlight the importance of considering the interaction between the individual risk and the contextual risk in explaining prolific delinquency.

A partir des années 1970, la remise en cause du système monétaire des parités fixes entraine l'apparition de risques nouveaux sur les marchés, et conduit les opérateurs financiers à rechercher de nouvelles techniques pour en maitriser les effets : les premiers instruments financiers dérivés naissent de cette volonté. Pour autant, au moment de reconnaitre juridiquement ces instruments, le législateur quant à lui ne prévoit aucune qualification ni définition précises et adopte la technique peu concluante de l'énumération. Ce qui laisse présager que les dérivés ne peuvent fonder une notion juridique unitaire mais constituent simplement l'addition de modèles financiers hétérogènes. Dès lors, la recherche de la nature juridique du dérivé se doit de démontrer sa spécificité en tant qu'instrument de transfert du risque financier à part entière et le caractériser par rapport aux autres familles de contrats nommés. En outre, si le dérivé opère un transfert de risque, il s'avère lui-même générateur d'un risque spécifique, à la fois pour les parties qui le concluent et pour les tiers en relation avec ces dernières: par ses attributs intrinsèques, il est donc fondamentalement porteur de risque pour le système financier dans son ensemble. La nécessité de reconnaitre ce risque et de le contrôler étroitement se pose alors en objectif impérieux. / From 1970s, the questioning of the monetary system of the fixed parities causes the appearance of new risks on markets, and leads financial players to look for new techniques to master the effects: the first derivative financial instruments arise from this will. However, at the time of recognizing legally these instruments, the legislator as for him plans no precise qualification and no definition and adopts the little decisive technique of the enumeration. What leads to predict that derivatives cannot base a unitarian legal notion but constitute simply the addition of heterogeneous financial models. From then on, the research for the legal nature of derivative owes demonstrate its specificity as instrument of transfer of the full financial risk and to characterize it with regard to the other families of named contracts. Besides, if the derivative operates a transfer of risk, it turns out itself generator of a specific risk, at the same time for the parties which conclude it and for thirds in connection with the latter: by its intrinsic attributes, it is fundamentally carrying risk to the whole financial system. The necessity of recognizing this risk and of controlling it closely settles then in compelling objective.

Le but de cette thèse est d’expliquer la délinquance prolifique de certains délinquants. Nous avançons la thèse que la délinquance prolifique s’explique par la formation plus fréquente de situations criminogènes. Ces situations réfèrent au moment où un délinquant entre en interaction avec une opportunité criminelle dans un contexte favorable au crime. Plus exactement, il s’agit du moment où le délinquant fait face à cette opportunité, mais où le crime n’a pas encore été commis. La formation de situations criminogènes est facilitée par l’interaction et l’interdépendance de trois éléments : la propension à la délinquance de la personne, son entourage criminalisé et son style de vie. Ainsi, la délinquance prolifique ne pourrait être expliquée adéquatement sans tenir compte de l’interaction entre le risque individuel et le risque contextuel. L’objectif général de la présente thèse est de faire la démonstration de l’importance d’une modélisation interactionnelle entre le risque individuel et le risque contextuel afin d’expliquer la délinquance plus prolifique de certains contrevenants. Pour ce faire, 155 contrevenants placés sous la responsabilité de deux établissements des Services correctionnels du Québec et de quatre centres jeunesse du Québec ont complété un protocole d’évaluation par questionnaires auto-administrés. Dans un premier temps (chapitre trois), nous avons décrit et comparé la nature de la délinquance autorévélée des contrevenants de notre échantillon. Ce premier chapitre de résultats a permis de mettre en valeur le fait que ce bassin de contrevenants est similaire à d’autres échantillons de délinquants en ce qui a trait à la nature de leur délinquance, plus particulièrement, au volume, à la variété et à la gravité de leurs crimes. En effet, la majorité des participants rapportent un volume faible de crimes contre la personne et contre les biens alors qu’un petit groupe se démarque par un lambda très élevé (13,1 % des délinquants de l’échantillon sont responsables de 60,3% de tous les crimes rapportés). Environ quatre délinquants sur cinq rapportent avoir commis au moins un crime contre la personne et un crime contre les biens. De plus, plus de 50% de ces derniers rapportent dans au moins quatre sous-catégories. Finalement, bien que les délinquants de notre échantillon aient un IGC (indice de gravité de la criminalité) moyen relativement faible (médiane = 77), près de 40% des contrevenants rapportent avoir commis au moins un des deux crimes les plus graves recensés dans cette étude (décharger une arme et vol qualifié). Le second objectif spécifique était d’explorer, au chapitre quatre, l’interaction entre les caractéristiques personnelles, l’entourage et le style de vie des délinquants dans la formation de situations criminogènes. Les personnes ayant une propension à la délinquance plus élevée semblent avoir tendance à être davantage entourées de personnes criminalisées et à avoir un style de vie plus oisif. L’entourage criminalisé semble également influencer le style de vie de ces délinquants. Ainsi, l’interdépendance entre ces trois éléments facilite la formation plus fréquente de situations criminogènes et crée une conjoncture propice à l’émergence de la délinquance prolifique. Le dernier objectif spécifique de la thèse, qui a été couvert dans le chapitre cinq, était d’analyser l’impact de la formation de situations criminogènes sur la nature de la délinquance. Les analyses de régression linéaires multiples et les arbres de régression ont permis de souligner la contribution des caractéristiques personnelles, de l’entourage et du style de vie dans l’explication de la nature de la délinquance. D’un côté, les analyses de régression (modèles additifs) suggèrent que l’ensemble des éléments favorisant la formation de situations criminogènes apporte une contribution unique à l’explication de la délinquance. D’un autre côté, les arbres de régression nous ont permis de mieux comprendre l’interaction entre les éléments dans l’explication de la délinquance prolifique. En effet, un positionnement plus faible sur certains éléments peut être compensé par un positionnement plus élevé sur d’autres. De plus, l’accumulation d’éléments favorisant la formation de situations criminogènes ne se fait pas de façon linéaire. Ces conclusions sont appuyées sur des proportions de variance expliquée plus élevées que celles des régressions linéaires multiples. En conclusion, mettre l’accent que sur un seul élément (la personne et sa propension à la délinquance ou le contexte et ses opportunités) ou leur combinaison de façon simplement additive ne permet pas de rendre justice à la complexité de l’émergence de la délinquance prolifique. En mettant à l’épreuve empiriquement cette idée généralement admise, cette thèse permet donc de souligner l’importance de considérer l’interaction entre le risque individuel et le risque contextuel dans l’explication de la délinquance prolifique. / The purpose of this dissertation is to explain the prolific delinquency of certain offenders. We suggest that prolific delinquency is explained by the formation of a greater number of criminogenic situations. A criminogenic situation makes reference to situations wherein an offender may interact with a criminal opportunity in an environment which is conducive to crime. More precisely, a criminogenic situation is the moment when an offender faces this opportunity, but the crime has not yet been committed. The formation of criminogenic situations facilitated by the interaction and interdependence of three elements: criminal propensity, criminal social environment and deviant lifestyle. Thus, prolific delinquency cannot be adequately explained without accounting for the interaction between individual and contextual risk. The overall objective of this dissertation is to demonstrate the importance of a model based on the interaction between individual and contextual risk to explain the prolific delinquency of some offenders. To accomplish this objective, one hundred and fifty-five offenders, under the responsibility of Services Correctionels du Québec and four Centres Jeunesse, completed an evaluation through self-administered questionnaires. The first objective of this study was to describe and compare, in Chapter Three, the delinquent nature of the offenders in our sample. Our results revealed that our sample of offenders is similar to that of other samples of delinquents; we found this with respect to the nature of their delinquency, and in particular, the volume, diversity and severity of their crimes. Indeed, the majority of the participants reported a small volume of crimes against a person and property. A small group distinguished themselves with a very high lambda (13.1% of offenders in the sample are responsible for 60.3 % of all crimes reported). Additionally, more than four out of five offenders reported having committed at least one crime against a person and one crime against property. Moreover, 50 % reported having committed crimes in at least four subcategories. Finally, although the offenders in our sample have a relatively low IGC (gravity scale) mean (median = 77), nearly 40 % of the offenders reported having committed at least one of the two most serious crimes identified in this study (discharging firearm and robbery). The second specific objective was to explore, in Chapter four, the interaction between personal characteristics, social environment and the lifestyle of offenders which may lead to criminogenic situation. People with a higher propensity to crime tend to be surrounded by other criminalized people and have a more idle lifestyle. The criminalized social environment tends to also influence the lifestyle of these offenders. Thus, the interdependence between these three elements can lead to criminogenic situations and can create a climate conducive to the emergence of prolific delinquency. The last specific objective of this dissertation, covered in Chapter Five, is to analyze the impact of factors leading to situational crime on the nature of the delinquency. Analyses of multiple linear regression and regression trees highlighted the contribution of personal characteristics, social environment and lifestyle in explaining the nature of the crime. On the one hand, regression analyses (additive models) suggest that all the elements leading to situational crime make a unique contribution to the explanation of delinquency. However, on the other hand, regression trees allowed us to better understand the interaction between the elements which underlie prolific delinquency. For example, a lower position on certain items may be offset by a higher position on others. Moreover, the accumulation of risk factors which lead to situational crime does not happen in a linear fashion. These conclusions are supported by the proportions of explained variance which were higher for the regression trees than for the multiple linear regressions. In conclusion, focusing simply on one element (the person and their criminal propensity or the context and its opportunities) or on their combination in a simply additive manner does not represent the reality of criminal phenomenon. This dissertation therefore serves to highlight the importance of considering the interaction between the individual risk and the contextual risk in explaining prolific delinquency.

La dernière crise financière et les crises des dettes souveraines successives ont mis en lumière l'enjeu majeur de l’encadrement du marché de la distribution du crédit bancaire. Le principal questionnement aura porté sur la nécessité, sinon l’opportunité, de sacrifier « un peu de liberté » pour un « peu de sécurité » dans le processus de distribution du crédit. À ce titre, deux voies ont fondamentalement cohabité dans la mise en place de limites à la une liberté totale. D’une part, les législateurs et organes réglementaires ont entrepris, du niveau interne au niveau international, en passant par l’incontournable niveau communautaire, d’encadrer les caractéristiques intrinsèques des acteurs du marché du crédit et leur environnement juridique. Cet encadrement a été impulsé par des instances internationales, plus promptes à réagir en cas de crise, mais a été progressivement adapté et intégré dans le droit positif. Cette intégration a justement eu pour effet premier de lui conférer un caractère normatif. Ainsi les dispositions normatives, légales ou réglementaires sont devenues un instrument majeur afin de cantonner les risques individuels et de prévenir le risque systémique. À ce titre, la norme, au sens extensif, est intervenue chaque fois qu’un risque était avéré, ou qu’il était soupçonné. L’écueil presque naturel a été une inflation quasi-exponentielle des normes et une juxtaposition des niveaux de normativité. La prise de conscience de cette situation a mené à faire cohabiter le « droit dur », contraignant et rigide, avec un droit plus souple et plus pragmatique. Dès lors, le droit positif a vu apparaître des obligations dites « professionnelles » qui viennent régir non pas la personne des dispensateurs de crédit, mais bien leur comportement lorsqu’ils établissement une relation contractuelle de crédit. Les obligations professionnelles ne visent pas à répondre à la même finalité que la norme au sens propre, elles ont une vocation d’indication, d’information afin d’établir des standards modulables, pragmatiques et flexible pour les contrats de crédit. Le contrat de crédit se complexifie, ce qui impose l’intervention d’un droit flexible, facilement adaptable, et dont la motivation première n’est pas la contrainte ou la sanction, mais l’accompagnement dans la vie du contrat. L’obligation professionnelle est à envisager comme une « norme de comportement ». Ainsi cette étude tente-t-elle de démontrer comment la dualité d’intervention entre norme prudentielle et obligation professionnelle permet sans aucun doute de préserver l’intégrité du marché de la distribution de crédit mais qu’elle risque également dans certaines situations de remettre en cause ses principes de fonctionnement. / The latest financial crisis and successive sovereign debt crises have highlighted the major challenge of framing the market for the distribution of bank credit. The main question was whether or not it would be appropriate to give up on a bit of freedom for more security in the credit distribution process. In this respect, two paths have basically cohabited in the establishment of limits to total freedom. On the one hand, legislators and regulatory bodies have undertaken, from the internal level to the international level, and also the Community level, to frame the intrinsic characteristics of the players in the credit market and their legal environment. This framework has been driven by international bodies, which are quicker to react in the event of a crisis, but has gradually been adapted and integrated into positive law. This integration has had the primary effect of giving it a normative character. Thus, normative, legal or regulatory provisions have become a major instrument to limit individual risks and prevent systemic risk. As such, the standard, in the broad sense of the term, has been applied whenever a risk has been proven or suspected. The almost natural pitfall has been a near-exponential inflation of standards and a juxtaposition of levels of normativity. Awareness of this situation has led to the coexistence of "hard law", which is both binding and rigid, with a more flexible and pragmatic law. As a result, positive law has seen the emergence of so-called "professional" obligations which govern not the person of the credit grantors, but their behaviour when they establish a contractual credit relationship. The almost natural pitfall has been a near-exponential inflation of norms and a juxtaposition of levels of normativity. The awareness of this situation has led to the coexistence of hard law, binding and rigid, with a more flexible and pragmatic law. Therefore, the positive law has seen the appearance of so-called "professional" obligations, which govern not the person of the credit providers, but their behavior when establishing a contractual credit relationship. Professional obligations are not intended to fulfill the same purpose as the norm in the literal sense, they are intended to provide guidance and information in order to establish flexible, pragmatic and flexible standards for credit agreements. The credit agreement is becoming more complex, requiring the intervention of a flexible and easily adaptable right, the primary motivation of which is not coercion or punishment, but support in the life of the contract. The professional obligation is to be seen as a "standard of behaviour".Thus, this study attempts to demonstrate how the duality of intervention between prudential standard and professional obligation undoubtedly preserves the integrity of the credit distribution market, but that this duality also risks, in certain situations, to call into question its operating principles.