Tourism is one of the largest economic sectors globally. It is a climate sensitive sector, with climate being one of the most important attributes for a destination. The Tourism Climate Index (TCI), developed by Mieczkowski (1985), is the most widely used index for assessing a destination’s climatic suitability for general tourist activities. Major deficiencies such as the subjectivity of its rating system and component weightings have been identified in the literature, and the need to develop a new index has been identified by researchers for almost a decade. This study aims to fill the research gap by developing a new index, the Holiday Climate Index (HCI), for the purpose of overcoming the deficiencies of the TCI. The HCI was compared with the TCI in rating both current (1961-1990) and future (2010-2039, 2040-2069 and 2070-2099) climatic suitability for tourism of the 15 most visited European city destinations (London, Paris, Istanbul, Rome, Barcelona, Dublin, Amsterdam, Vienna, Madrid, Berlin, Stockholm, Warsaw, Munich, Athens and Venice). The results were also compared with monthly visitation data available for Paris to assess whether the HCI ratings more accurately represent visitation demand than the TCI. The results show that there are key differences between the HCI and TCI in rating the tourism climate suitability of the selected European city destinations, in particular in the winter months of the northern, western and eastern European city destinations where the performance of the TCI had been questioned in the literature. The comparison with leisure tourist visitation data in Paris also revealed that the ratings of the HCI were more reflective of seasonal pattern of tourist arrivals than the TCI ratings. Because the TCI has been widely applied (15 studies), these findings hold important implications for future research in assessing current and future climatic suitability for tourism.

Tourism is one of the largest economic sectors globally. It is a climate sensitive sector, with climate being one of the most important attributes for a destination. The Tourism Climate Index (TCI), developed by Mieczkowski (1985), is the most widely used index for assessing a destination’s climatic suitability for general tourist activities. Major deficiencies such as the subjectivity of its rating system and component weightings have been identified in the literature, and the need to develop a new index has been identified by researchers for almost a decade. This study aims to fill the research gap by developing a new index, the Holiday Climate Index (HCI), for the purpose of overcoming the deficiencies of the TCI. The HCI was compared with the TCI in rating both current (1961-1990) and future (2010-2039, 2040-2069 and 2070-2099) climatic suitability for tourism of the 15 most visited European city destinations (London, Paris, Istanbul, Rome, Barcelona, Dublin, Amsterdam, Vienna, Madrid, Berlin, Stockholm, Warsaw, Munich, Athens and Venice). The results were also compared with monthly visitation data available for Paris to assess whether the HCI ratings more accurately represent visitation demand than the TCI. The results show that there are key differences between the HCI and TCI in rating the tourism climate suitability of the selected European city destinations, in particular in the winter months of the northern, western and eastern European city destinations where the performance of the TCI had been questioned in the literature. The comparison with leisure tourist visitation data in Paris also revealed that the ratings of the HCI were more reflective of seasonal pattern of tourist arrivals than the TCI ratings. Because the TCI has been widely applied (15 studies), these findings hold important implications for future research in assessing current and future climatic suitability for tourism.

Philosophiae Doctor - PhD / The educational landscape in South Africa is unique and has also seen many changes since the dawn of democracy more than 20 years ago. The apartheid education system was marred by severe inequalities between schools and, for this reason, the democratic government post 1994 established a number of policies and interventions in an attempt to improve access, equity and quality between schools. The country has made significant advances in improving access to education. This is reflected in the Millennium Development Goals progress indicators showing that, as of 2013, almost all learners between the ages of 7 and 15 were enrolled in schools. While great strides have also been made with regard to equity, evidence shows that many schools in South Africa are still largely inequitable. Education quality, however, is an area that is still of grave concern and the matter requires much attention from educational stakeholders. International studies, such as the Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) and the Progress in International Reading Literacy Study (PIRLS), use learner performance to measure the quality of the system. Such studies consistently report that South Africa is performing poorly and that large inequalities still exist between schools in the country. Improved quality is associated with effective schools and, in South Africa, only 20% of schools have been found to be functional or effective. Much of research focussed on school effectiveness, both nationally and internationally, however has been explained by factors in the school, including the appropriateness of curriculum content, infrastructure, resources in the school and teacher content knowledge. These factors have been found to be strongly correlated with effective schools.

As the most destructive forest disturbance in British Columbia, wildfire becomes more worrisome for increasing uncertainty due to climate change. The current study investigates the potential to predict wildfire occurrence using climate indexes and quantify its marginal prices for property values at the municipal level, so as to provide a quantitative indicator for decision making in regard to influences of wildfire occurrence in the near future. First, significant correlations between monthly temperature and precipitation and large fire occurrence with distinctions in terms of distances to municipalities are proved by statistical analysis. Monthly wildfire occurrence are then statistically estimated with the four-month lags of the El Niño index and predicted using count models with regional differences. At last, the hedonic pricing model shows distance based positive impact of fire frequency and negative impact of fire size in neighbouring areas on property values. / Graduate / 0366 / 0478 / 0463 / zach_xu@hotmail.com

As the most destructive forest disturbance in British Columbia, wildfire becomes more worrisome for increasing uncertainty due to climate change. The current study investigates the potential to predict wildfire occurrence using climate indexes and quantify its marginal prices for property values at the municipal level, so as to provide a quantitative indicator for decision making in regard to influences of wildfire occurrence in the near future. First, significant correlations between monthly temperature and precipitation and large fire occurrence with distinctions in terms of distances to municipalities are proved by statistical analysis. Monthly wildfire occurrence are then statistically estimated with the four-month lags of the El Niño index and predicted using count models with regional differences. At last, the hedonic pricing model shows distance based positive impact of fire frequency and negative impact of fire size in neighbouring areas on property values. / Graduate / 0366 / 0478 / 0463 / zach_xu@hotmail.com

Ce travail consiste à caractériser la variabilité temporelle et spatiale des séries chronologiques de paramètres hydroclimatiques (pluies, débits) au niveau de trois grand bassins au Maroc ; (bassins de la Moulouya, du Sebou et du Tensift) et à chercher les liens entre cette variabilité hydrologique et les fluctuations climatiques matérialisées par différents indices climatiques, NAO, SOI, WMOI. L’approche d’étude est basée le traitement statistique des séries temporelles, liée aux dimensions temps et espace.Les grands bassins versants d'échelle continentale comme le Tensift, le Sebou et la Moulouya en climat méditerranéen sous influence océanique, intègrent sur des grandes surfaces la réponse hydrologique aux changements climatiques et environnementaux (fluctuations du climat, précipitations, débits) à de larges échelles spatiales et temporelles, mais également les modifications du milieu physique d’origine anthropique (changements d’occupation des sols, aménagements…), ce qui rend parfois difficile l’identification des liens entre la variabilité hydrologique et la variabilité climatique. Les principaux objectifs de ce travail sont de déterminer et de quantifier les relations entre la variabilité hydroclimatique et les fluctuations du climat à l’échelle de chaque bassin étudié et de ses principaux sous-bassins, via l'utilisation de méthodes d’analyses spectrales adaptées à l’étude des processus non stationnaires (analyse en ondelettes continues, analyse de la cohérence par ondelettes). Plusieurs modes de variabilités sont identifiés à partir de l’analyse par station (pluies et débits), du cycle annuel au mode 16-22 ans, cette analyse sera complétée par une analyse par maille, dont les données sont issues d’un fichier (SIEREM) couvrant la période 1940-1999, où on identifie des fréquences de 1an au 8-16 ans, distinguées sur des périodes différentes au niveau de chaque bassin, permettant ainsi une décomposition de la variabilité spatiale des signaux mis en évidence. Trois principales discontinuités sont identifiées en 1970, 1980 et 2000. La contribution des indices climatiques est assez importante elle est entre 55% et 80%. / This work is to characterize the temporal and spatial variability of hydroclimatic time series (rainfall, flow) at three large basins in Morocco; (basins of the Sebou and Moulouya Tensift) and look links between the hydrologic variability and climate fluctuation materialized by various climate indices, NAO, SOI, WMOI. The approach to study is based on statistical analysis of time series, related to time and space dimensions.The great watershed of continental scale as Tensift, Sebou and Moulouya in Mediterranean climate under oceanic influence, integrate over large areas the hydrological response to climate and environmental changes (climate fluctuations, precipitation, flows) not only to large spatial and temporal scales, but also to changes in the physical environment anthropogenic (land use changes, developments ...), which sometimes makes difficult to identify the links between hydrological variability and climate variability. The main objective of this work is to determine and quantify the relationships between hydrological variability and climate fluctuations (regionalised precipitation, climate change indexes) across each studied basin and its main sub-basins, via using spectral analysis methods adapted to the study of non-stationary processes (continuous wavelet analysis, coherence analysis wavelet). Many modes of variability are identified from the station analysis (rainfall and flow rates), the annual cycle to 16-22 years, this analysis will be complemented by a grid analysis, the data come from a (SIEREM) file covering the period from 1940 to 1999, which will allow a better understanding of the spatial variability of signals set highlighted. Which is identified frequencies the 1 year 8-16 years, distinguished different time periods at each basin, three main discontinuities identified in 1970, 1980 and 2000. The contribution of climatic indices is important enough it is between 55% and 80%.

This study was a non-experimental research which has been conducted in Shanghai, China. It aims to explore the relationship between the Shanghai elementary school climate and the level of faculty trust as well as to investigate whether the Shanghai elementary school climate can predict the development of faculty trust. Thirty elementary schools of 726 teachers in Jiading District of Shanghai have participated in this study. Each teacher completed a questionnaire with two measurements: School Climate Index (SCI) and Omnibus Trust Scale (OTS). Both have been translated, revised and tested for reliability and validity in a pilot study in order to better and more accurately measure school climate and faculty trust of the Chinese elementary schools in Shanghai. The criterion variable, faculty trust, was measured from three dimensions: faculty trust in principal, faculty trust in colleagues and faculty trust in clients (parents and students). The predictor variable is the Chinese elementary school climate which has three constructs: collegial leadership, teacher professionalism and academic press. The control variables are school types and faculty's employment type. Results of this study indicated that faculty trust is positively related to all dimensions of Chinese elementary school climate. Despite of different school types and different faculty employment types, each kind of faculty trust has the same set of school climate predators.

Desertification is a serious problem in environments where it occurs, namely in dry lands (arid, semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas). This type of degradation affects about one quarter of the land surface, with implications for environmental, economic, political, social and cultural order. The areas in Brazil susceptible to this process are located in the northeast region which is characterized by low rainfall index, high temperatures, severe water deficit, shallow and rocky soils and xerophytic vegetation. São Raimundo Nonato, which is the object of this study, is located in the semi-arid region of Piaui and is a susceptible area to desertification. This has led to the study of degradation / desertification in this area in order to assess the risk of physical deterioration and effective degradation. The risk of physical deterioration was evaluated using the following indicators: climate, rainfall erosivity, erodibility of soils and slopeness. The effective degradation was assessed by considering the indicators discussed above combined with the NDVI of the years 1987 and 2007. The results indicate that 8.3%, 81% and 10.7% of the area are at risk of a low, moderate and high physical deterioration. The effective degradation, taking into account the NDVI for 1987, indicates that 70% and 30% of the area have respectively moderate and high degradation. For the year 2007, the data indicate that 71% and 29% of the area have respectively moderate and high effective degradation. These data reveal a dynamic ecological equilibrium with a subtle trend of improvement in terms of environmental degradation, that is , in the process of desertification in the studied area, since there is a reduction of the class of high effective degradation. The decline and economic stagnation in the area were found during the analysis of major crops and effective livestock . These data revealed a decline in the planted area, productivity and effective livestock, both in number of heads and / or unit of animals. The decline of these indicators corroborates the statement of improvement of environmental conditions in the studied area. / A desertificação constitui um grave problema nos ambientes em que ocorre, qual seja as Terras Secas (áridas, semiáridas e subúmidas secas). Esse tipo de degradação afeta cerca de 1/4 da superfície terrestre, com implicações de ordem ambiental, econômica, política, social e cultural. No Brasil as áreas suscetíveis a esse processo localizam-se na região Nordeste caracterizada por baixos índices pluviométricos, elevadas temperaturas médias, acentuado déficit hídrico, solos rasos e pedregosos e vegetação xerofítica. O Núcleo de São Raimundo Nonato, objeto deste estudo, localizado no semi-árido piauiense constitui área suscetível à desertificação. Esta constatação conduziu ao estudo da degradação/desertificação desta área com o objetivo de avaliar o risco de degradação física e a degradação efetiva. O risco de degradação física foi avaliado a partir dos seguintes indicadores: índice climático, erosividade das chuvas, erodibilidade dos solos e a declividade. A degradação efetiva foi avaliada considerando os indicadores anteriormente citados combinados ao NDVI dos anos de 1987 e 2007. Os resultados indicam que 8,3%, 81% e 10,7% da área apresentam risco de degradação física baixo, moderado e alto. A degradação efetiva, considerando o NDVI para 1987, indica que 70% e 30% da área apresenta respectivamente degradação moderada e alta. Para o ano de 2007, os dados indicam que 71% e 29% da área apresenta respectivamente degradação efetiva moderada e alta. Esses dados revelam uma situação de equilíbrio ecológico dinâmico com uma sutil tendência de melhoria nas condições de degradação ambiental, ou seja, no processo de desertificação da área de estudo, posto a redução da classe de alta degradação efetiva. O declínio e a estagnação econômica da área foram constatados quando da analise das principais culturas e do efetivo de rebanhos. Esses dados revelaram redução da área plantada, da produtividade e do efetivo dos rebanhos em número de cabeças e de unidades animais. A queda desses indicadores corrobora a afirmativa de melhoria das condições ambientais da área de estudo.

L'importance des forêts tropicales dans le cycle du carbone à l'échelle planétaire est majeure, tant en terme de stock qu’en terme de flux de CO2. Plusieurs études mettent en évidence des changements au sein des forêts tropicales au cours des 20 dernières années, notamment des changements de la dynamique forestière et une augmentation de la biomasse aérienne. Les déterminants de ces variations sont aujourd’hui discutés et nous proposons ici d’apporter une contribution à ce débat. Les données utilisées dans ce travail proviennent du dispositif de suivi forestier à long terme de Paracou, Guyane Française, mis en place en 1984 et qui recouvre plus de 120 ha de forêt tropicale humide. Les données météorologiques proviennent de la tour à flux du dispositif, Guyaflux. Les mesures de diamètre proviennent de la base Guyafor pour les données annuelles et bisannuelles, et des mesures de 260 arbres à proximité de la tour à flux pour les mesures diamétriques intra-annuelles.Cette thèse se divise en deux grandes parties. La première concerne l’analyse de la biomasse du dispositif de suivi forestier de Paracou en Guyane et l’implication des changements de structure de cette forêt sur le bilan de carbone. Cette partie est constituée de deux points. (i) Quelles échelles temporelles et spatiales sont pertinentes pour analyser les composantes de structure (biomasse, aire basale et nombre de tiges) et de dynamique (croissance, recrutement et mortalité) des forêts tropicales afin de minimiser les effets d’échantillonnage ? Nous avons établi une méthodologie permettant de relier les intervalles de temps et la surface de mesure aux coefficients de variation de chacune des variables de structure et de dynamique de la forêt. (ii) Quels processus démographiques sont prépondérants dans l’explication des variations de biomasse et comment se redistribue la biomasse accumulée dans le système ? L’augmentation de la biomasse observée sur le dispositif de Paracou serait liée à la rareté des évènements de mortalité des gros arbres qui portent une part très importante de la biomasse.La deuxième partie de la thèse concerne l’analyse de l’effet du climat à moyen terme, inter et intra-annuel, et les effets directs du climat dans les changements de dynamique de la forêt. Cette partie se divise en 3 points. (i) Comment quantifier le stress hydrique en forêt tropicale humide ? Nous avons réalisé un modèle journalier de réserve en eau du sol pour les arbres en forêt tropicale. (ii) Quelles variables sont explicatives de la croissance des arbres en forêt guyanaise ? Nous avons montré que l’eau dans le sol est le facteur le plus explicatif du déterminisme climatique parmi un panel de variables climatiques. (iii) Quels traits fonctionnels sont prédicteurs de la réponse des arbres aux variations climatique ? Nous avons déterminé que des traits spécifiques, densité du bois et la hauteur maximale, ainsi que le diamètre de l'arbre au moment de la mesure, modulent la croissance des arbres en réponse au climat. / At a global scale tropical forest play a major role in term of carbon stock as well as in term of CO2 fluxes. Several studies have highlighted changes in tropical forest functioning during the last 20 years including a faster turnover and an increase of above ground biomass. The drivers of these changes are discussed and throughout this thesis we propose to contribute to this debate. We use the data from the Paracou experimental site in French Guiana established in 1984 on 120 hectares of moist tropical forest. Meteorological data come from the flux tower of the site, Guyaflux. We use annual and bisannual diameter measurements from the Guyafor database, and intra-annual diameter increments from the measurements of 260 trees near the flux tower.This thesis has two main parts. In the first part we present the biomass analysis of the Paracou permanent plots and the impact of structural changes in this forest on the carbon budget. The first part is constituted by two points. (i) Which temporal and spatial scale used to analyze the structure (biomass, basal area and stem density) and dynamics (tree growth, recruitment and mortality)components of tropical forest in order to minimized sample bias ? We establish a simple method to rely measurement interval between census and surface of measurement to the coefficient of variation of forests structure and dynamic components (ii) Which demographic process are involved in the explanation of biomass variation and how the biomass is distributed in the system ? The observed increase of biomass at Paracou could be link to the rarity of big trees mortality events. These big trees represent the larger part of the biomass. In the second part, we present the analysis of intra and inter-annual climate variation effects on forest dynamic changes. This part is divided in two points. (i) How to model drought stress in moist tropical forest ? We built a daily water balance model for tropical trees. (ii) Which climate variables explain the tree growth in guianian forests? We shown that soil water availability is the determinant factor of tree growth among a panel of climate variables. (iii) Which functional traits are involved in the tropical tree growth responses to climate? In this analysis, we determined that wood specific gravity, maximum tree height and tree diameter modulate the tree growth response to climate variations.

Ce travail documente la variabilité spatiale et temporelle du rayonnement solaire à la surface sur le sud-ouest de l'océan Indien (SOOI) et l'île de La Réunion à l'aide de deux modèles régionaux de climat (MRC) : les modèles RegCM et WRF. La première partie de ce travail est dédiée à l'analyse de la variabilité temporelle du rayonnement solaire à l'aide du modèle RegCM sur le SOOI avec une résolution spatiale modérée (50km). S'agissant du premier travail sur la modélisation régionale du climat pour l'étude du rayonnement solaire dans le SOOI, une première série de tests pour illustrer les performances du modèle et sa sensibilité au choix des paramétrisations physiques (transfert radiatif, convection), à la taille du modèle, et à la résolution spatiale, est effectuée. Le schéma radiatif par défaut, le schéma CCM, et le schéma convectif mixte : Grell sur les terres et Emanuel sur les océans, donnent les résultats les plus satisfaisants pour la région, comparés aux autres options disponibles. La variabilité climatique interannuelle, intrasaisonnière et jour-à-jour est ensuite examinée sur la base des indices climatiques. Dans un premier temps, plusieurs paramètres (vent horizontal, température, humidité relative) issus des réanalyses ERA-Interim et utilisés comme paramètres d'entrée pour le modèle RegCM, sont analysés en lien avec ceux correspondant fournis en sortie du modèle, pour vérifier l'aptitude du modèle à maintenir les signaux ENSO (El-Nino Southern Oscillation), IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole), MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) et les Talwegs Tropicaux-Tempérés (TTT). Dans un second temps, le rayonnement solaire à la surface simulé par le modèle RegCM est mis en lien avec ces différents modes de variabilité. La seconde partie du travail est consacrée à l'analyse de la variabilité spatiale du rayonnement solaire à la surface à La Réunion à l'aide du modèle WRF à très haute résolution spatiale (750m) pour différentes échelles de temps : interannuelle, intrasaisonnière, jour-à-jour. Une classification est appliquée sur les sorties de rayonnement produites par WRF, et le lien avec la circulation atmosphérique de grande échelle est analysé dans chacune des classes. Les résultats de la modélisation sont validés à l'aide des données d'observations du réseau Météo France et des produits satellite CM SAF. Les résultats indiquent que les MRC ont la capacité de représenter la variabilité temporelle et spatiale du rayonnement solaire à La Réunion. / This work documents the temporal and spatial variability of surface solar radiation (SSR) over the southwest Indian Ocean (SWIO) and Reunion Island using two complementary Regional Climate Models (RCMs): RegCM4 and WRF. The first part of the work is dedicated to the analysis of the temporal variability of SSR based on RegCM4 over the SWIO at a moderate spatial resolution (50km). Because RegCM4 is the first RCM that focuses on the solar radiation research over the SWIO region, a first series of test experiments with this model to illustrate the model performance and its sensitivity to the choice of the physical parameterizations (radiation, convection), the domain size, and the spatial resolution, are performed. The default CCM radiative and the mixed convective scheme: Grell scheme over land and Emanuel scheme over ocean, give better performance over the SWIO compared to the other available options. The interannual, intraseasonal and synoptic climate variability is then examined through the climate indices and several ERA-Interim parameters (U, V, T and RH) are firstly analyzed along with the corresponding RegCM4 output data to check whether the RegCM4 model forced by ERA-Interim reanalyses is able to maintain the El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the Tropical Temperate Trough (TTT) signals. Secondly, simulated SSR in association with the different modes of variability is examined. In the second part, SSR spatial variability over Reunion Island is analyzed based on WRF simulations at very fine resolution (750m) for seasonal, intraseasonal, and daily time scales. Clustering classification is applied to WRF simulated SSR over Reunion and the effect from the atmospheric circulation is checked together. Météo France observations and CM SAF are used to validate the results of the model. The results indicate that regional climate models have the ability to present the temporal and spatial variability of SSR over Reunion.