As the climate-related impact increases in frequency and severity, there is growing attention from academics, policymakers and peacebuilders on the relationship between climate variability and conflict. Little attention has been paid to understanding the uneven impact of climate variability on intercommunal conflicts. This study aims to examine this discourse by exploring why climate variability contributes to inter-communal conflicts in some areas but not in others. It seeks to answer the research question: Why does climate variability contribute to the onset of inter-communal conflict in some countries and not in others? The independent variable measured was climate variability, and the dependent variable was inter-communal conflict. The assembled causal mechanism outlines how climate variability contributes to deepened existing community vulnerabilities and can lead to grievances and, consequently, mobilisation in the form of bandits. The hypothesis is derived from the proposed theory. The hypothesis reads: "Time period of Elnino is associated with high levels of intercommunal conflict". The study applied a Structured, Focused Comparison method and analysed two cases within a specific timeframe from 2016 to 2017. These cases, derived from Kenya, are Laikipia and Isiolo Counties. The results indicate a positive hypothesized relationship. Undertaking this study contributed to the empirics and causal mechanism through which climate variability triggered by Elnino contributes to inter-communal conflict.

Upper-tropospheric (200 hPa) velocity potential is useful in identifying areas of rising or sinking atmospheric motions on varying temporal scales (e.g., weekly, seasonal, interannual) especially in the global tropics. These areas are associated with enhancement (rising motion) or suppression (sinking motion) of tropical convection and subsequent weather phenomena dependent on these processes (e.g., tropical cyclones). This study employed three commonly used global weather reanalysis datasets (NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1, JMA JRA-55, ECMWF ERA5) to calculate and compare upper-tropospheric velocity potential fields on varying temporal scales and quantify any differences that existed between them from 1958 to 2020 over four key regions of variability (Equatorial Africa, Amazon Basin, Equatorial Central Pacific, and Equatorial Indonesia). To supplement this analysis, the highly correlated variables to velocity potential of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and daily precipitation rate were used and directly compared with independent OLR and precipitation datasets to determine the reanalysis' level of agreement with the independent data. The ECMWF ERA5 held the highest agreement to these data over all regions examined and was reasoned to have the highest confidence in capturing the variability of upper-tropospheric velocity potential fields for the study period. Confidence was decreased in the usefulness of the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1 as it consistently performed poorly over much of the study domain. The results of this study also emphasized the usefulness in ensemble-based approaches to assessing climate variability and understanding potential biases and uncertainties that are inherent in the data sources. / Master of Science / Historical weather data across the globe is analyzed using global weather reanalysis datasets which provide the most complete picture of how the atmosphere has evolved over the course of the last several decades. This data is a vital component in today's research investigating climate change and variability over time. This study examined how the history of upper-tropospheric velocity potential was captured in three commonly used global weather reanalysis datasets (NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1, JMA JRA-55, ECMWF ERA5) from 1958 to 2020 over four key regions of variability (Equatorial Africa, Amazon Basin, Equatorial Central Pacific, and Equatorial Indonesia). The variable of velocity potential is useful in identifying areas of rising or sinking atmospheric motions on varying time scales (e.g., weekly, seasonal, interannual) especially in the global tropics. These areas are associated with enhancement (rising motion) or suppression (sinking motion) of tropical convection (i.e., thunderstorms) and subsequent weather phenomena dependent on these processes (e.g., tropical cyclones). The analysis conducted found that the newest of the reanalysis datasets, the ECMWF ERA5, held the highest agreement to independent weather observations over all regions examined was reasoned to have the highest confidence in capturing the variability of upper-tropospheric velocity potential fields for the study period. Confidence was decreased in the usefulness of the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1, the oldest of the reanalysis datasets, as it consistently performed poorly over much of the study domain. The results of this study also emphasized the usefulness in ensemble-based approaches to assessing climate variability and understanding potential biases and uncertainties that can be found in the data sources.

The determination of the mechanisms setting the strength and structure of the large scale circulation is a fundamental and long-standing problem in physical oceanography. In this thesis, we seek to explore the mechanisms contributing to the steady state and variability of the large scale flow, with a focus on better understanding the dynamics of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). In the first part of this thesis, we explore the linear sensitivity of the monthly mean subtropical AMOC to surface fluxes of buoyancy and momentum. Our approach is to use a numerical adjoint. Key insights are provided into the memory of the AMOC to historic atmospheric forcing. We find that significant memory to wind forcing is confined to timescales of less than a year. In contrast, we identify significant memory to surface buoyancy forcing spanning multi-decadal timescales and characterised by a large scale oscillation in the sign of sensitivity between the eastern and western North Atlantic basin. An important result is that to understand the origins of seasonal variability in the modelled AMOC, we must examine the response to a multidecadal history of atmospheric forcing. In the second part of this thesis, a new tool is presented that enables a clean diagnosis of the force balance controlling the circulation regime for a Boussinesq fluid. Specifically, the tool is based on the development of the "rotational momentum" equations and sets of scalar "velocity potentials" and analogous "force functions". The latter allow the projection of all forces onto the acceleration of the vertical shears and external modes of overturning to be visualised in isolation. The rotational momentum decomposition is applied to the modelled circulation in idealised Atlantic and global configurations of the MITgcm, with a focus on elucidating the dynamics of the simulated AMOC. We discuss the key role played by the rotational buoyancy forcing right on the western boundary.

The aim of the research is to assess the sustainability of groundwater supply and the suitability of hand-drilling techniques for accessing groundwater for irrigation practices along the shallow alluvial floodplains of River Benue, NE Nigeria. Hand-drilling techniques are affordable means for the farmers to abstract water from these shallow aquifers. Determining the most sustainable hand-drilling techniques (taking into account the hydrology and sedimentology of the floodplain) will improve farming activities and food security in this region and the country at large. Hydrological data (obtained from fieldwork and modelling) demonstrate that the River Benue is the main source for recharge of the shallow alluvial aquifers of the floodplain during the dry season period. Water table heights were estimated by resistivity survey using ABEM Terrameter equipment and measured by automatic piezometer instruments. Floodplain sedimentology and hydrogeology were assessed at seventeen natural riverbank outcrops and twelve hand-drilled boreholes. At each location, sediment samples were collected from every exposed sedimentological unit. Locations and elevations were measured using a ProMark3 dual frequency GPS instrument, to create a detailed topographic map with updated contours. Twenty-four electrical resistivity sounding profiles and twelve-groundwater measurement were also obtained to explore the groundwater level of the floodplain. The resistivity results confirm the availability of water in the alluvial aquifers of the floodplain. In order to determine the most appropriate hand drilling techniques, a Field Shear Vane Tester was used to measure sediment shear strength at twelve different borehole locations. Shear strength forces were higher on clayey silt and sandy silt, and lower on sand formations. It appeared that in some areas of the floodplain, the farmers are already above the shear strengths that can be provided by human power. Hence, any increase of the hardness of the surface of the sediment would make low-cost hand drilling impractical. Particle size analysis for the sediment samples showed that the samples were largely sandy in nature, which enables easy movement of water through the layers for aquifer recharge. Magnetic susceptibility (used to classify the source of sediment and the process of their formation) revealed that the main source of the sedimentary materials was upstream of the study site and varies little over time. The groundwater level of the study area decreased away from River Benue valley during the dry season period. One perched aquifer formations and possibly two others were observed in three different locations, which reflects a low-permeability stratigraphic unit (such as lens of clayey silt) within alluvial sands. These should be avoided by farmers, as they are likely to provide water only in the short-term. Finally, groundwater modelling was undertaken (with various scenarios) for the River Benue floodplain using acquired sedimentology and hydrology data integrated into MODFLOW software. The results revealed that low-cost hand-drilling techniques such as augering and jetting remain possible for abstracting the shallow alluvial aquifers on the floodplain for irrigation farming in the study area, unless the most likely low river water stages in River Benue, over-exploitation of the shallow alluvial floodplain groundwater and drought scenarios occur.

There has been an on-going discussion between researchers regarding the economic and climate induced reasons for migration (Renaud et al. 2011, Afifi, 2011).  There also seems to be insufficient data when it comes to internal migration within low-income countries (Tacolí, 2009). This study focuses on the impact of climate change and climate variability on migration processes to the area of Cochabamba, Bolivia. Two communities were chosen as study areas: Lopez Rancho and Alto Paraíso, both located in the growing city of Sacaba in the department of Cochabamba. In total 13 semi-structured interviews were made, including three key-informants and ten migrants, of which nine were female and one was male. The results show that while perceived environmental changes had an impact on the decision to migrate for six out of the ten respondents, other factors, such as education, infrastructure, health services, economy and decisions based on the family as a whole, were also important. Future studies on this subject can include these factors into various frameworks and surveys so that the nature of migration flows can be understood better.

Uncertainty surrounds the understanding of natural variability in hydrologic extremes such as droughts and floods and how these events are projected to change in the future. This thesis leverages Global Climate Model (GCM) data to analyse 738 year streamflow scenarios in the Nelson-Churchill River Basin. Streamflow scenarios include a 500 year stationary period and future projections forced by two forcing scenarios. Fifty three GCM simulations are evaluated for performance in reproducing observed runoff characteristics. Runoff from a subset of nine simulations is routed to generate naturalized streamflow scenarios. Quantile mapping is then applied to reduce volume bias while maintaining the GCM’s sequencing of events. Results show evidence of future increases in mean annual streamflow and evidence that mean monthly streamflow variability has decreased from stationary conditions and is projected to decrease further into the future. There is less evidence of systematic change in droughts and floods. / May 2016

4 pp. / Climate Change and Variability in Southwest Ecosystems Series / Several environmental factors are changing, including the global rise in atmospheric CO2 concentrations and global warming. These environmental changes portend needed changes in the future management of forests in the Southwestern U.S. Therefore, University of Arizona Extension Agents organized a Workshop in Sedona, AZ, in February, 2005, targeted at Southwest forest managers. This paper presents facts from one of the presentations at that workshop and summarizes what the direct effects of the increased CO2 concentrations are likely to be on future tree growth. It is expected that the growth of most trees will be stimulated by the higher CO2 concentrations but variations in response among species will alter competition among species. The fact sheet also speculates about what the implications may be for future forest management. This research benefits the forest industry, as well as the many consumers of forest products.

4 pp. / This is part of a series on climate variability and forested ecosystems / Recent events in the forests of the Southwest have prompted scientists to consider the role of climate variability in insect and disease cycles. Over 70 million pine trees along with millions of other conifers died in 2002-03. Average temperature increases of 3°C enabled the MPB at those high elevations to achieve univoltine (having one generation per year) reproduction leading to previously unheard of outbreaks in white bark pine at high elevation sites in Idaho.Aspen defoliation in Arizona and New Mexico averaged ~ 20,375 acres from 1990 to 1997. A series of events has contributed to the decline of aspen since 1997.

Pour plusieurs sociétés de part le monde, la sécurité alimentaire repose encore aujourd'hui sur une agriculture familiale. L'objectif de cette thèse est de décrire et d'analyser comment les agriculteurs font face à la variabilité climatique. Le versant est du Mont Kenya est caractérisé par une forte variabilité climatique, sociale et culturelle. Les systèmes agricoles intègrent une diversité d'espèces et de variétés. Sans irrigation, ils dépendent exclusivement de la pluviométrie. Une double approche comparative a été utilisée pour isoler les facteurs sociaux et environnementaux dans notre analyse, en comparant trois altitudes (750 m, 950 m et 1100 m) et deux sociétés (Mwimbi et Tharaka). La diversité au niveau inter et intra spécifique est structurée en fonction de l'altitude et des communautés. Le savoir traditionnel des agriculteurs concernant les climats passés s'avère précis lorsqu'on le compare aux données pluviométriques. Avec l'adoption du maïs au détriment du sorgho et du mil, l'évolution des systèmes de cultures a induit un risque plus élevé aujourd'hui qu'auparavant de perdre des variétés lors des sécheresses. Cependant, l'effet négatif de la variabilité climatique n'est pas homogène; les agriculteurs, par leur savoir et leurs pratiques, atténuent l'effet de la variabilité climatique sur les plantes cultivées. Les dates de semis sont variables pour garantir l'humidité adéquate pour la germination des graines en début de saison des pluies. L'adaptabilité génétique des semences diffèrent fort probablement selon les communautés, certaines évoluant depuis plusieurs années en zones très arides (Tharaka à 750 m) alors que d'autres sont plus familières avec des climats plus cléments (Mwimbi à 1100 m). Les agriculteurs font donc face à la variabilité climatique avec des ressources génétiques qu'ils gèrent et reproduisent historiquement. L'interaction des facteurs sociaux, écologiques, historiques et génétiques devraient davantage être considérée dans les programmes d'amélioration variétale pour faire face à la variabilité climatique. / Smallholder systems are fundamental to food security for many societies but have largely remained under considered. The aim of this study was to describe how farmers in smallholder farming systems cope with climate variability. The eastern slope of Mount Kenya is characterized by high climate, social and cultural variability. Farmers practice rain-fed agriculture favouring multi-crops. A double comparative approach was implemented in order to isolate environmental and social factors, by comparing three altitudinal levels and two societies (Mwimbi and Tharaka). Crop diversity is both environmentally and socially structured. Farmers' climate knowledge is highly accurate in the light of climate rainfall records. Farming systems are also highly dynamic over time, in favor of maize and at the expense of sorghum and millet. This cropping system dynamic has induced an increasing risk of losing local farmers' varieties during drought from 1961 to 2006. However, rainfall variations and droughts do not cause seed losses homogenously, as societies interfere between crop and climate. Various sowing dates are practiced to favour the moisture conditions for the crop at germination. Seed genetic adaptability probably differs between communities, as some are usually exposed to droughts (Tharaka at 750 m) whereas others usually evolve in more favorable climatic environment (Mwimbi at 1100 m).Smallholder farmers thus cope with climatic variability with the crop genetic resources that they historically manage. Interaction between social, ecological, historical and genetic factors must be better reflected in crop genetic sampling strategies used in breeding programs to foster genetic adaptation to climate variability.

O objetivo deste trabalho de pesquisa é o de buscar entender os tempos e eventos que determinaram as grandes mudanças climáticas no Éon Fanerozoico. Técnicas são constituídas, metodologias estabelecidas, e por vezes são aceitas como sendo as verdades científicas. Com as inovações nas técnicas, com o mudar das ciências, mudam as evidências, mudam as verdades, fazendo mudar nossa percepção do passado. Este trabalho apresenta elementos para um debate sobre o clima da Terra no Fanerozoico, estabelecido a partir de pesquisas bibliográficas sobre evidências passadas e atuais. / The goal of this research work is to understand the times and events that determined the great climatic changes in the Phanerozoic Eon. Techniques are constituted, methodologies are established, and are sometimes accepted as scientific truths. With innovations in techniques, with the change of science, change the evidence; change the truths, making change our perception of the past. This paper presents elements for a discussion on the Earth\'s climate in Phanerozoic established from bibliographical research on past and current evidences.