One of the distinguishing features of successful societies is the ability to adapt to change, both social but also natural changes like climate change. Climate change is a complex, dynamic, non-linear process with a great deal of uncertainty concerning the time perspective, risks and consequences. A combination of factors like climate change, geographical vulnerability, a densely populated and highly built up coast line along with factors like deficient handling of surface runoff and a large usage of ground water leads to an increasingly vulnerable society. It also puts a greater pressure on the society to have preventive measures in place. The number of actors working with preparing society to the expected impacts of climate change and variability is increasing. However more than half of Sweden’s municipalities do not consider changing climatic conditions when planning, and many times even allow the construction of new living areas in known climatically vulnerable areas. Certain geographical areas in Sweden are characterized by environmental problems which enhance the predicted effects of climate change. The coast of Scania (Skåne) is one such area, where people for a long time have had to adjust to conditions like coastal erosion, recurring high tides, low lying areas and sinking land. The following study elaborates the politics of adaptive capacity. It is based on a comparative case study of two different policy processes regarding adjustments to climatic conditions in the coastal municipalities of Vellinge and Lomma in south-western Scania. In other words, this study explores the underlying factors that can explain what drives anticipatory measures to strengthen the ability and possibility to handle effects related to climate change. The theoretical framework consists of theories regarding policy changes in social ecological systems, and adaptation to climate. Structural actor based perspective, as well as system oriented and process oriented have been applied. The results are based on 14 interviews with key politicians, officials and stakeholders from non-governmental organizations. The study is also based on reports, a citizen’s survey from Statistics Sweden (SCB), newspaper articles, municipal documents, web sites and literature. The results show that the municipality of Vellinge implemented adaptation strategies years before Lomma municipality. Policy change was triggered by observed vulnerabilities in ecological systems which affected the social systems. It resulted in an intense debate (a window of opportunity), which in turn opened a policy window. The driving forces in policy process are central actors and shadow networks with access to knowledge. The results show that knowledge and understanding of ecological systems is essential for policy changes in climate adaptations. Research is needed, but research by itself will not be sufficient, research and knowledge must be transferred to decision-makers. Knowledge transferring is even important for officials and public. That means that an understanding of ecological systems is necessary for forming attitudes and for planning a society with the ability to meet climate change and the insecurities which are connected with it.

L'objectif est de comprendre comment la synergie entre la transformation du territoire et le changement climatique pourra affecter la biodiversité des Alpes-Maritimes à l'horizon 2100. Cette thèse comprend quatre chapitres. Dans le premier chapitre sont présentées les notions, les bases théoriques et conceptuelles ainsi que la problématique générale de recherche. Le deuxième chapitre est consacré à l'étude des processus d'artificialisation et de transformation territoriale. Dans cette partie sont évalués le processus de dispersion ainsi que les facteurs qui interviennent dans les phénomènes d'artificialisation du territoire et les tendances futures de changement sur les Alpes-Maritimes. Les règles de transition spatiale ont été extraites à partir de l'étude de la transformation territoriale des 40 dernières années pour comprendre les trajectoires de changement, mais aussi dans le but d'avoir une base de connaissances solide permettant de faire la simulation par automate cellulaire. A partir de ces connaissances et de l'interprétation des règles de transition sont élaborés les scénarios de transformation future du paysage aux horizons 2050 et 2100. Les résultats montrent la possible expansion de l'artificialisation selon le comportement et les tendances historiques observés sur le territoire. Les résultats de ce chapitre montrent que les surfaces artificielles pourraient doubler pour 2050, et tripler pour 2100 par rapport à leur occupation actuelle. Le troisième chapitre concerne l'évaluation de la perte de biodiversité selon les pressions anthropiques et climatiques. La première partie du chapitre trois est dédiée à la définition de la diversité écosystémique à partir des unités du paysage. Pour cette définition ont été considérés les différents facteurs écologiques qui ont une influence sur la répartition des écosystèmes tels que la géomorphologie, le sol, le climat et la végétation. Avec les informations obtenues dans la partie précédente, est étudié l'impact potentiel de la transformation territoriale sur la biodiversité. La deuxième partie de ce chapitre consiste en la réalisation d'un étalonnage bioclimatique des unités du paysage, afin de comprendre les limites écologiques de tolérance des expressions écosystémique aux conditions climatiques et géomorphologiques. Au total sont définies 236 unités du paysage sur lesquelles sont estimés les impacts synergiques de la transformation territoriale et du changement climatique afin d'évaluer les risques de perte de biodiversité vers la fin du siècle. Les résultats montrent que 68 unités du paysage (soit presque 30% de la diversité́ des Alpes-Maritimes) seront affectées par ces deux phénomènes d'ici la fin du XXIème siècle et 5 d'entre elles devraient disparaître, que ce soit en raison du changement climatique ou de la dynamique de l'artificialisation du sol. Le dernier chapitre propose une méthode permettant l'intégration des impacts du changement climatique et des impacts de la transformation territoriale dans les processus de conception et définition de politiques de conservation dynamique de la biodiversité. De plus, ce chapitre propose la possibilité d'intégrer les deux phénomènes dans la conception de réseaux écologiques de conservation, notamment dans le cadre de la Trame verte et bleue. / The work aims at understanding how the land transformation and climatic change synergy could affect the Alpes-Maritimes biodiversity. This thesis contains four chapters. In the first chapter, the purpose is to provide the conceptual basis and the framework that support the scientific foundations of this thesis and the main conceptual definitions of the studied problematic. In the second chapter, the purpose is to study the artificialization process in the French Riviera area, its probable potential dispersion, the conditions and the factors involved in the phenomenon in order to give an intuitively understanding of the landscape transformation and their principal trend. The landscape transformation of the last 40 years has been studied with the aim of identifying the spatial transition rules that have been introduced in the cellular automata model. We present a synthesis of landscape transformation in the French Riviera up to 2050 and 2100. The resulting scenarios provide information about future urban expansion according to historic behavior and the evolutionary patterns. The results of this part show that urban surfaces could double by 2050 and triplicated by 2100 compared with 2011. In the third chapter we assess the biodiversity loss according to land use dynamic and climate change. We first defined the ecosystem diversity by the landscape units. The landscape units are composed by the different ecological factors that have had an influence on ecosystems repartition like geomorphology, soil, climate, and vegetation. Then, we studied how landscape transformation could affect the biodiversity in the future by the spatial superposition of the first and second chapter results. Next, we realized a bioclimatic calibration for the landscape units with the aim of understanding the limits of ecological tolerance to the climatic conditions and the different ecological conditions like geomorphology, soil, and aspect. The bioclimatic calibration of the landscape units has allowed the definition of climatic change impact on ecosystem biodiversity for 2050 and 2100.The synergy between climatic change impact and landscape transformation shows that almost 30% (68 ecosystem expressions) of Alpes-Maritimes biodiversity could be affected at the end of the XXIst century, and at least five ecosystems expressions could disappear for 2100 due to both forces or some of these driving forces.In the fourth chapter we propose a method that allows the integration of climatic change impacts and landscape transformation on conservation process and politic assessment. Moreover, this chapter proposes the possibility to integrate both phenomena into the ecological networks structuration, especially into “Trame verte et bleue” in France.

Les coraux constructeurs de récifs se développent généralement dans des eaux oligotrophes (i.e. : faibles concentrations en azote et phosphore (N, P)). Cette limitation se voit accentuée avec le réchauffement climatique. Cependant, aux abords des côtes, l'eutrophisation des eaux entraîne un excès de sels nutritifs, pouvant provoquer la rupture de l'association corail-dinoflagellés. Les buts principaux de cette thèse ont été d'évaluer: 1) l'utilisation de l'azote et du phosphore inorganique par les coraux dans diverses conditions environnementales; 2) l'effet d'une limitation ou d'un enrichissement en azote et/ou phosphore sur la physiologie corallienne. Les résultats ont montré que la forme et la source de N n'ont pas les mêmes effets sur la physiologie des coraux et que cet effet dépend également de la disponibilité en P. Sous faibles concentrations de P, un enrichissement en NH4+ stimule le métabolisme et maintient l'association symbiotique en période de stress. Au contraire, un excès de NO3- affecte négativement les processus de photosynthèse et de calcification, entrainant un blanchissement. Ces effets sont exacerbés en présence de matière organique particulaire, mais estompés en présence de phosphore. En effet, les résultats ont montré une très grande dépendance entre la présence en P et la santé corallienne. Ainsi, en période de stress thermique, les coraux ont la capacité d'augmenter leur taux d'absorption de phosphore. Ces travaux apportent des éclaircissements sur les relations existant entre la disponibilité en sels nutritifs et l'équilibre nutritionnel au sein de la symbiose, et devraient permettre d'affiner les stratégies de gestions des écosystèmes récifaux. / Reef building corals are usually thriving in oligotrophic areas, characterized by low concentrations in inorganic nutrients, such as nitrogen and phosphorus. More, nutrient starvation is known to increase with global warming. However, along the urban coasts, water eutrophication induces nutrient excess, which could lead to the breakdown of the coraldinoflagellate symbiosis. The major aims of this thesis were to assess: 1) the use and uptake capacities of inorganic nitrogen and phosphorus by tropical corals according to environmental parameters; 2) the effects of nutrient limitation or enrichments in nitrogen and/or phosphorus on reef coral physiology. Results showed that corals response differed according to the chemical form, source of nitrogen and to the availability of phosphorus in the reef environment. In the presence of low phosphorus concentrations, ammonium supplementation enhanced coral metabolism and allowed coral colonies to overcome thermal stress. Conversely, nitrate enrichments negatively impacted photosynthesis and calcification processes, increasing coral bleaching susceptibility. These deleterious effects were enhanced when combined with organic matter supplementation, but repressed with addition of phosphorus. Indeed, results highlighted the tight relationship existing between phosphorus availability and coral health. During thermal stress, corals were able to increase their phosphorus uptake, this latter nutrient being essential for the holobiont metabolism. These outcomes shed a light into how marine symbioses cope with eutrophication, which is urgently required to refine risk management strategies.

Climate studies are of main importance to explain the external geodynamics of the Pacific Basin of the Central Andes between 15°S and 19°S. This is because the processes by which the relief modeling or morphogenesis develop are controlled by pluviometric variables and phyto stabilization. Moreover, the internal geodynamic of the region is related to the climatic conditions that determine the amounts of sediments aported to the Ocean basin (Kulm et al. 1977), affecting the erosion rate by subduction in the plane of contact between the tectonic plates and the composition of the magazas formed below the Andean erogene.In this paper we analyze the climatic effects in the external geodynamics, within a theoric framework that considers a morphoclimatic system as a set formed by the morphogenetic agents and processes that work the relief modeling in a territory, in function of its bioclimatic characteristics; and a morphoclimatic dominion is the spatial environment where a specific morphoclimatic system develops.First, we present the clima of the Central Andes, the factors that control its mean configuration and its main characteristics with diagrams made from the pluviometric data collected in a series of stations regularly distributed in the region. Second, we differentiate two climatic dominions, one in the Altiplano, related to Amazonia precipitations and the other at the Pacific side, associated to the anticyclonic permanency in the western cordillera. Third, we propose a subdivision of the western façade of the cordillera in altitudinal intervals or bioclimatics sections using bioindicators such as the vegetation absence or presence with altitudinal change. Fourth, we give a new division in altitudinal intervals or morphoclimatic zones, using the existence of some geoindicators, such as the endemic geomorphic units of each morphoclimatic zone. / El estudio del clima es imprescindible para explicar la geodinámica externa en la vertiente del Pacífico de los Andes Centrales, entre 15°S y 19°S), debido a que los procesos mediante los cuales se desarrolla el modelado del relieve o morfogénesis están controlados por las variables termo-pluviométricas y la fito-estabilización. Además, la geodinámica interna de la región se encuentra igualmente relacionada con las condiciones climáticas, que determinan la cuantía del aporte de sedimentos a la fosa oceánica (Kulm et al. 1977), afectando a la tasa de erosión por subducción en el plano de contacto entre las placas y a la composición de los magazas que se forman bajo el erógeno andino. En esta ponencia se analizan los efectos del clima en la geodinámica externa, en un marco teórico en el que se considera que un sistema morfoclimático es un conjunto integrado por los agentes y procesos morfogenéticos que realizan el modelado del relieve en un territorio, en función de sus características bioclimáticas, y un dominio o piso morfoclimático es el ámbito espacial en el que se desarrolla un determinado sistema morfoclimático.En primer lugar se realiza una presentación del clima en los Andes Centrales, los factores que controlan su configuración media y sus principales características, presentando diagramas elaborados a partir de datos termo-pluviométricos recogidos en una serie de observatorios regularmente distribuidos por la región. En segundo lugar, se diferencias dos dominios climáticos, uno en el altiplano, relacionado con las precipitaciones de componente amazónica, y otro en la rampa que desciende hacia el océano y en la costa del Pacífico, asociado a la situación anticiclónica permanente al O de la cordillera. En tercer lugar, se propone una compartimentación de la fachada occidental de la cordillera en intervalos altitudinales o pisos bioclimáticos, para cuya definición se han empleado como bioindicadores la ausencia de vegetación (por causas térmicas o hídricas) o su presencia con un cambio altitudinal de facies (supraforestal, forestal o xerófila). En cuarto lugar, se formula una nueva división en intervalos altitudinales o pisos morfoclimáticos, empleando esta vez como criterio para su definición la presencia de determinados geoindicadores, entendiendo como tales las unidades geomorfológicas endémicas de cada piso morfoclimático, es decir, aquellas formas del relieve cuya presencia es exclusiva en cada intervalo porque también lo es la de los agentes y procesos morfogenéticos responsables de su modelado.A modo de síntesis, se ha elaborado una tabla en la que se han sintetizado, para cada piso morfoclimático, el comportamiento de las variables climáticas (precipitación, temperatura y amplitud térmica), sus características distintivas o claves morfoclimáticas, así como las peculiaridades de los tres subsistemas morfogenéticos: meteorización, dinámica de vertientes y evacuación. En el marco teórico de este trabajo se entiende que el subsistema meteorización incluye los agentes y procesos morfogenéticos que atacan las rocas preparándolas para la erosión, el subsistema dinámica de vertientes los agentes y procesos que efectúan las acciones de desplazamiento a corta distancia de las partículas resultantes de la meteorización, y el subsistema evacuación los agentes y procesos que realizan las funciones de transporte de esas partículas a una distancia mayor, incluso fuera del dominio o piso morfoclimático. Además, también se ha elaborado una tabla-resumen en la que se presentan los geoindicadores característicos de cada piso morfoclimático, exponiéndose a continuación algunos ejemplos que han sido documentados en el campo.La interpretación de la presencia de geoindicadores activos e inactivos, así como de las relaciones espacio-temporales que se establecen entre ellos, reflejan la evolución del clima en la vertiente del Pacífico de los Andes Centrales durante el Cuaternario reciente.

Climate change during the Quaternary played an important role in the distribution of extant plants. Herein, cone scales of Cedrus (Pinaceae) were uncovered from the Upper Pliocene Sanying Formation, Longmen Village, Yongping County of Yunnan Province in southwestern China. Detailed comparisons show that these fossils all belong to the genus Cedrus (Pinaceae), and a new species is proposed, Cedrus angusta sp. nov. This find expands the known distribution of Cedrus during the Late Pliocene to Yunnan, where the genus no longer exists in natural forests. Based on the analysis of reconstructed Neogene climate data, we suggest that the intensification of the East Asian winter monsoon during the Quaternary may have dramatically increased seasonality and given rise to a much drier winter in Yunnan. Combined with information on Cedrus fossil records and its seed physiology, we conclude that the intensification of a drier climate after the Late Pliocene may have prevented the survival of Cedrus seedlings, leading to the eventual disappearance of Cedrus in western Yunnan. This study indicates that the topography in southwestern China acted as a vital refuge for many plants during the Quaternary, but that other species gradually disappeared due to the intensification of the monsoonal climate.

Climate change during the Quaternary played an important role in the distribution of extant plants. Herein, cone scales of Cedrus (Pinaceae) were uncovered from the Upper Pliocene Sanying Formation, Longmen Village, Yongping County of Yunnan Province in southwestern China. Detailed comparisons show that these fossils all belong to the genus Cedrus (Pinaceae), and a new species is proposed, Cedrus angusta sp. nov. This find expands the known distribution of Cedrus during the Late Pliocene to Yunnan, where the genus no longer exists in natural forests. Based on the analysis of reconstructed Neogene climate data, we suggest that the intensification of the East Asian winter monsoon during the Quaternary may have dramatically increased seasonality and given rise to a much drier winter in Yunnan. Combined with information on Cedrus fossil records and its seed physiology, we conclude that the intensification of a drier climate after the Late Pliocene may have prevented the survival of Cedrus seedlings, leading to the eventual disappearance of Cedrus in western Yunnan. This study indicates that the topography in southwestern China acted as a vital refuge for many plants during the Quaternary, but that other species gradually disappeared due to the intensification of the monsoonal climate.

Increasing awareness of the impacts of global climate change on marine ecosystems and concerns about shifting bioclimatic and agricultural zones necessitate a reassessment of the geographical distribution of Earths climate types. In recent years, the availability of truly global data-sets has allowed for the application of climatic types, including the Kppen-Geiger system, over the oceans. This research uses NCAR Reanalysis data to create a global Extended Kppen-Geiger climate classification, including the world ocean, for the 1981-2010 averaging period. The percentages of Earths surface covered by tropical rainforest (Af), tropical monsoon (Am), and (especially) the mesothermal-mild summer (Cfc) climate types are much larger than in the terrestrial only analysis. Expanding and contracting terrestrial climate zones are also identified based on the differences in the total area through comparison with maps produced for 1901-1925, 1926-1950, 1951-1975, 1976-2000 and model-output-based predicted Kppen-Geiger types for 2076-2100. Results suggest that hot desert (BWh), hot semi-arid (BSh), and Af climatic types are projected to expand, while the tundra and most mesothermal and microthermal types will decrease in area. These results assist in projecting global impacts of climatic change.

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(人間・環境学) / 甲第21177号 / 人博第849号 / 新制||人||203(附属図書館) / 29||人博||849(吉田南総合図書館) / 京都大学大学院人間・環境学研究科相関環境学専攻 / (主査)教授 瀬戸口 浩彰, 教授 加藤 眞, 教授 市岡 孝朗 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Human and Environmental Studies / Kyoto University / DGAM

A thesis submitted to the Faculty of Humanities, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, in fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy , April 2017 / This study examines the impact of climate change on the livelihoods of female elderly headed households in Gutsa village, Murape Ward, in Goromonzi District of Mashonaland East province in Zimbabwe. It is based on intensive ethnographic fieldwork that I undertook for close to nineteen months in Gutsa village. The key questions that I sought to answer in this thesis were: How is local knowledge about weather and climate change constructed? What is the nature of contestations surrounding this knowledge, and in particular surrounding the attribution of climate change to particular causes or events? How are livelihoods organized in response to the impact of climate change? I examined elderly women heads of households' perceptions and understandings of weather and climate change, issues of conflict and consensus regarding attribution and causality of weather and climate, the concepts that are used to refer to climate change, elderly women’s struggles to make sense of, and respond to climate change and to organize livelihood activities in response to the ongoing impact of climate change. In order to answer my research questions I adopted the use of Participatory Rural Appraisal, participant observation, archival research, life-history interviews, narrative research and in-depth interviews as data gathering approaches. I focused on the situated experiences of ten elderly women heads of households in Gutsa village existing in a wider community. In doing so this thesis explored these women’s complex understandings and interpretations of weather and climate dynamics as well as the relationship between climate change and their multiple and competing responsibilities. The thesis also analyses the implications of the Fast Track Land Reform Programme in the district, peri-urban development, resource commoditization and commercialization, rapidly shifting markets, changing property relations, social networks, livelihood opportunities, gender relations, changing household structure, the politics of local authority and governance and the dynamics of ecosystems and interspecies interaction. The thesis argues that there is a central vernacular climatological theory that is widely shared among the elderly as well as among other situated individuals in the village and the wider community. / MT2018

MENVSC / Department of Geography and Geo-Information Sciences / South Africa was badly affected by the recent 2015/16 severe drought. Water levels in dams declined drastically resulting in decimation of livestock herds and widespread crop failure. Mopani District Municipality is comprised of many agricultural activities that contribute to the economy and social development of the country. The study evaluated the nature of the drought hazard - its impacts, vulnerability and adaptation strategies employed by rural communities of Mopani District. The study used a mixed method approach with both quantitative and qualitative datasets. The district was divided into two distinct climatic areas, the eastern lowveld which includes the Greater-Giyani, Ba-Phalaborwa and Maruleng Local Municipalities and the western highveld which includes Greater- Tzaneen and Greater- Letaba Local Municipalities. Questionnaires were administered among community members whilst key informant interviews were conducted among relevant government and municipal officials. Anomalies in long term climate data were analysed to determine the frequency and intensity of drought in the district. Drought characterisation was done using a Standardised Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index whilst vegetation anomaly maps, maize yields and dam level data were used to analyse the impacts of drought across the district. Levels of vulnerability to drought were determined using the Household Vulnerability Index. Spatially distinct patterns of drought conditions across the district were remarkable with wet conditions on the western highveld along the escarpment and harsh dry conditions towards the eastern lowveld. It was found that nearly half the time there is some form of drought or another in the district which may be linked to the remote El Nino phenomenon. Community vulnerabilities have a direct impact on human welfare and different strategies are employed to adapt to drought hazards both at community and district levels. The study showed a link between drought hazard extent and vulnerability. Community members are adapting using conservation agriculture, selling fire-wood, accessing boreholes and rearing chickens, amongst other means to survive in these harsh climatic conditions. Local government intervention strategies include supply of seeds and fertilisers, selling fodder at a cheaper price and supplying water using trucks. The findings of this study contribute to disaster risk reduction efforts in Mopani District Municipality / NRF