<p>One of the distinguishing features of successful societies is the ability to adapt to change, both</p><p>social but also natural changes like climate change. Climate change is a complex, dynamic,</p><p>non-linear process with a great deal of uncertainty concerning the time perspective, risks and</p><p>consequences. A combination of factors like climate change, geographical vulnerability, a</p><p>densely populated and highly built up coast line along with factors like deficient handling of</p><p>surface runoff and a large usage of ground water leads to an increasingly vulnerable society. It</p><p>also puts a greater pressure on the society to have preventive measures in place.</p><p>The number of actors working with preparing society to the expected impacts of climate</p><p>change and variability is increasing. However more than half of Sweden’s municipalities do</p><p>not consider changing climatic conditions when planning, and many times even allow the</p><p>construction of new living areas in known climatically vulnerable areas. Certain geographical</p><p>areas in Sweden are characterized by environmental problems which enhance the predicted</p><p>effects of climate change. The coast of Scania (Skåne) is one such area, where people for a</p><p>long time have had to adjust to conditions like coastal erosion, recurring high tides, low lying</p><p>areas and sinking land.</p><p>The following study elaborates the politics of adaptive capacity. It is based on a comparative</p><p>case study of two different policy processes regarding adjustments to climatic conditions in</p><p>the coastal municipalities of Vellinge and Lomma in south-western Scania. In other words,</p><p>this study explores the underlying factors that can explain what drives anticipatory measures</p><p>to strengthen the ability and possibility to handle effects related to climate change. The</p><p>theoretical framework consists of theories regarding policy changes in social ecological</p><p>systems, and adaptation to climate. Structural actor based perspective, as well as system</p><p>oriented and process oriented have been applied.</p><p>The results are based on 14 interviews with key politicians, officials and stakeholders from</p><p>non-governmental organizations. The study is also based on reports, a citizen’s survey from</p><p>Statistics Sweden (SCB), newspaper articles, municipal documents, web sites and literature.</p><p>The results show that the municipality of Vellinge implemented adaptation strategies years</p><p>before Lomma municipality. Policy change was triggered by observed vulnerabilities in</p><p>ecological systems which affected the social systems. It resulted in an intense debate (a</p><p>window of opportunity), which in turn opened a policy window.</p><p>The driving forces in policy process are central actors and shadow networks with access to</p><p>knowledge. The results show that knowledge and understanding of ecological systems is</p><p>essential for policy changes in climate adaptations. Research is needed, but research by itself</p><p>will not be sufficient, research and knowledge must be transferred to decision-makers.</p><p>Knowledge transferring is even important for officials and public. That means that an</p><p>understanding of ecological systems is necessary for forming attitudes and for planning a</p><p>society with the ability to meet climate change and the insecurities which are connected with</p><p>it.</p>

One of the distinguishing features of successful societies is the ability to adapt to change, both social but also natural changes like climate change. Climate change is a complex, dynamic, non-linear process with a great deal of uncertainty concerning the time perspective, risks and consequences. A combination of factors like climate change, geographical vulnerability, a densely populated and highly built up coast line along with factors like deficient handling of surface runoff and a large usage of ground water leads to an increasingly vulnerable society. It also puts a greater pressure on the society to have preventive measures in place. The number of actors working with preparing society to the expected impacts of climate change and variability is increasing. However more than half of Sweden’s municipalities do not consider changing climatic conditions when planning, and many times even allow the construction of new living areas in known climatically vulnerable areas. Certain geographical areas in Sweden are characterized by environmental problems which enhance the predicted effects of climate change. The coast of Scania (Skåne) is one such area, where people for a long time have had to adjust to conditions like coastal erosion, recurring high tides, low lying areas and sinking land. The following study elaborates the politics of adaptive capacity. It is based on a comparative case study of two different policy processes regarding adjustments to climatic conditions in the coastal municipalities of Vellinge and Lomma in south-western Scania. In other words, this study explores the underlying factors that can explain what drives anticipatory measures to strengthen the ability and possibility to handle effects related to climate change. The theoretical framework consists of theories regarding policy changes in social ecological systems, and adaptation to climate. Structural actor based perspective, as well as system oriented and process oriented have been applied. The results are based on 14 interviews with key politicians, officials and stakeholders from non-governmental organizations. The study is also based on reports, a citizen’s survey from Statistics Sweden (SCB), newspaper articles, municipal documents, web sites and literature. The results show that the municipality of Vellinge implemented adaptation strategies years before Lomma municipality. Policy change was triggered by observed vulnerabilities in ecological systems which affected the social systems. It resulted in an intense debate (a window of opportunity), which in turn opened a policy window. The driving forces in policy process are central actors and shadow networks with access to knowledge. The results show that knowledge and understanding of ecological systems is essential for policy changes in climate adaptations. Research is needed, but research by itself will not be sufficient, research and knowledge must be transferred to decision-makers. Knowledge transferring is even important for officials and public. That means that an understanding of ecological systems is necessary for forming attitudes and for planning a society with the ability to meet climate change and the insecurities which are connected with it.

Tidigare forskning om nyemissioner och hur bolag som genomför dessa presterar på marknaden finns det gott om. Överlag är alla ense om att ett bolag som genomfört en nyemission kan väntas generera lägre avkastning under de kommande åren jämfört med bolag som inte sett detta behov. Vad som däremot inte visat sig självklart är huruvida branschen som det emitterande bolaget verkar på har en signifikant påverkan på substansen av denna underprestation. Således är syftet med denna studie att analysera huruvida emittenter skiljer sig från icke emitterande bolag och om bolagets rådande bransch påverkar dessa eventuella skillnader. För att undersöka detta har en eventstudie genomförts baserat på 94 emissioner utbrett på tre olika branscher. Statistiska tester har utförts på kursdatan för dessa emitterande bolag samt tre matchningsbolag, ett för varje bransch. Studiens resultat indikerar att det finns en viss branscheffekt, dock inte av någon signifikans. Vad som istället visade sig ha ett signifikant negativt samband med bolagets avkastning var P/B-värdet. Ett högre P/B-värde har alltså i populationen som studerats inneburit en lägre avkastning, och vice versa. / Previous research within seasoned equity offerings and the issuing companies’ performance on the market is plentiful. In general, most researchers agree that an issuing company can expect to generate a lower return in the years following the issuance in comparison to companies that does not feel the need to acquire equity in this way. However, something that has not been conclusively shown is whether the industry on which the issuing company operates has a significant effect on the substance of this underperformance. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to analyse whether the issuing company differs from the nonissuing company and if the industry on which they operate affects the outcome. To investigate this, an event study has been conducted based on a total of 94 issuances on three different industries. Statistical tests have been performed on the equity share data of these companies, along with three matching companies, one for each industry. The results of the study indicate that there is a certain industry-effect, however it has not been successfully proven with any real significance. What has been significantly shown, however, is that the price-to-book value of the issuing company has a significantly negative relationship with the companies’ return on equity. This means that a higher price-to-book value within the studied population has meant a lower return, and vice versa.

De acordo com a teoria de equity market timing, as companhias tendem a emitir ações ou dívidas de modo a explorar janelas de oportunidade e esse comportamento é um determinante significativo da estrutura de capital das empresas, reflexo das decisões de financiamento. Com base nessa assertiva e nas evidências recentes, esta dissertação investiga a ocorrência de equity market timing na decisão de emissão primária de ações (IPO e Follow-on) no mercado de capitais brasileiro. Em um primeiro momento, analisaram-se os determinantes da estrutura de capital das companhias brasileiras, com base em variáveis comuns na literatura: índice market-to-book, tamanho, tangibilidade, rentabilidade e setor. Mais tarde, para averiguar a existência do comportamento de market timing na decisão de emitir ações, utilizou-se a relação dos retornos anormais, antes e após a emissão, com o volume total de capital levantado por meio da oferta desses títulos, além da quantidade de ações que a empresa emitiu e o preço inicial de negociação, medidas relativas utilizadas por Alti (2006). A amostra analisada leva em conta características setoriais e compreende 123 empresas de capital aberto que emitiram novas ações na BM&FBOVESPA entre 2004 e 2015, somando 165 emissões primárias durante esse período. Foram utilizadas análises descritivas de dados, testes de diferença de médias e regressões lineares para prover evidências da ocorrência desse fenômeno. Os resultados indicam que mais da metade das emissões de ações no Brasil ocorre nos meses que antecedem o prazo máximo de divulgação dos demonstrativos contábeis das empresas, e que 75% das emissões aconteceram depois de retornos anormais positivos. Ademais, as empresas que tiveram retornos anormais negativos depois da emissão de ações foram as que captaram mais recursos por essa via de financiamento, indo a favor da prática de equity market timing na decisão de emissão de ações no mercado brasileiro. Destaca-se, ainda, a constatação de que esse comportamento oportunista está mais claramente ligado à oferta inicial de ações (IPO), ou seja, quando a empresa utiliza essa fonte de financiamento pela primeira vez do que quando a emissão é subsequente (Follow-on), além das evidências de que o setor tem papel importante no comportamento de market timing dos gestores, indicando que as empresas de um mesmo ramo setorial tomam decisões semelhantes com a finalidade de explorar janelas de oportunidades possivelmente relacionadas aos seus respectivos setores. / According to the equity market timing theory, companies tend to issue stocks or debts in order to explore windows of opportunity, and this behavior is a significant determinant of the capital structure of companies, which reflects from financing decisions. Based on this assertion and on recent evidence, this dissertation investigates the occurrence of equity market timing in the decision of primary issuance of shares (IPO and Follow-on) in the Brazilian capital market. First, determinants of the capital structure of Brazilian companies were analyzed, based on common variables in the literature: market-to-book ratio, size, tangibility, profitability and industry. Later, in order to determine the occurrence of market timing behavior in the decision to issue shares, it was investigated the relation of abnormal returns - both before and after the issue - with the total volume of capital raised through securities\' offers and also the quantity of shares issued by the company and the initial trading price, relative measures used by Alti (2006). The analyzed sample takes into account industrial characteristics and comprises 123 public companies that issued new shares on BM&FBOVESPA between 2004 and 2015, resulting in to 165 primary issues during this period. Descriptive data analyzes, mean difference tests and linear regressions were used to provide evidence of the occurrence of this phenomenon. The results indicate that more than half of Brazil\'s equity issues occur in the months leading up to the maximum disclosure period of the companies\' financial statements, and that 75% of the issues occurred after abnormal positive returns. In addition, the companies that had negative abnormal returns after the issuance of shares were the ones that captured more resources through this financing channel, favoring the practice of equity market timing in the decision to issue shares in the Brazilian market. It should also be pointed out that this opportunistic behavior is more clearly linked to the initial public offering (IPO), that is, when the company uses this source of financing for the first time than when the issue is secondary (Follow- on). Also, there is evidence that the industry plays an important role in the manager\'s market timing behavior, indicating that the companies belonging to a same industry make similar decisions with the purpose of exploring windows of opportunities that possibly related to their respective industries.

De acordo com a teoria de equity market timing, as companhias tendem a emitir ações ou dívidas de modo a explorar janelas de oportunidade e esse comportamento é um determinante significativo da estrutura de capital das empresas, reflexo das decisões de financiamento. Com base nessa assertiva e nas evidências recentes, esta dissertação investiga a ocorrência de equity market timing na decisão de emissão primária de ações (IPO e Follow-on) no mercado de capitais brasileiro. Em um primeiro momento, analisaram-se os determinantes da estrutura de capital das companhias brasileiras, com base em variáveis comuns na literatura: índice market-to-book, tamanho, tangibilidade, rentabilidade e setor. Mais tarde, para averiguar a existência do comportamento de market timing na decisão de emitir ações, utilizou-se a relação dos retornos anormais, antes e após a emissão, com o volume total de capital levantado por meio da oferta desses títulos, além da quantidade de ações que a empresa emitiu e o preço inicial de negociação, medidas relativas utilizadas por Alti (2006). A amostra analisada leva em conta características setoriais e compreende 123 empresas de capital aberto que emitiram novas ações na BM&FBOVESPA entre 2004 e 2015, somando 165 emissões primárias durante esse período. Foram utilizadas análises descritivas de dados, testes de diferença de médias e regressões lineares para prover evidências da ocorrência desse fenômeno. Os resultados indicam que mais da metade das emissões de ações no Brasil ocorre nos meses que antecedem o prazo máximo de divulgação dos demonstrativos contábeis das empresas, e que 75% das emissões aconteceram depois de retornos anormais positivos. Ademais, as empresas que tiveram retornos anormais negativos depois da emissão de ações foram as que captaram mais recursos por essa via de financiamento, indo a favor da prática de equity market timing na decisão de emissão de ações no mercado brasileiro. Destaca-se, ainda, a constatação de que esse comportamento oportunista está mais claramente ligado à oferta inicial de ações (IPO), ou seja, quando a empresa utiliza essa fonte de financiamento pela primeira vez do que quando a emissão é subsequente (Follow-on), além das evidências de que o setor tem papel importante no comportamento de market timing dos gestores, indicando que as empresas de um mesmo ramo setorial tomam decisões semelhantes com a finalidade de explorar janelas de oportunidades possivelmente relacionadas aos seus respectivos setores. / According to the equity market timing theory, companies tend to issue stocks or debts in order to explore windows of opportunity, and this behavior is a significant determinant of the capital structure of companies, which reflects from financing decisions. Based on this assertion and on recent evidence, this dissertation investigates the occurrence of equity market timing in the decision of primary issuance of shares (IPO and Follow-on) in the Brazilian capital market. First, determinants of the capital structure of Brazilian companies were analyzed, based on common variables in the literature: market-to-book ratio, size, tangibility, profitability and industry. Later, in order to determine the occurrence of market timing behavior in the decision to issue shares, it was investigated the relation of abnormal returns - both before and after the issue - with the total volume of capital raised through securities\' offers and also the quantity of shares issued by the company and the initial trading price, relative measures used by Alti (2006). The analyzed sample takes into account industrial characteristics and comprises 123 public companies that issued new shares on BM&FBOVESPA between 2004 and 2015, resulting in to 165 primary issues during this period. Descriptive data analyzes, mean difference tests and linear regressions were used to provide evidence of the occurrence of this phenomenon. The results indicate that more than half of Brazil\'s equity issues occur in the months leading up to the maximum disclosure period of the companies\' financial statements, and that 75% of the issues occurred after abnormal positive returns. In addition, the companies that had negative abnormal returns after the issuance of shares were the ones that captured more resources through this financing channel, favoring the practice of equity market timing in the decision to issue shares in the Brazilian market. It should also be pointed out that this opportunistic behavior is more clearly linked to the initial public offering (IPO), that is, when the company uses this source of financing for the first time than when the issue is secondary (Follow- on). Also, there is evidence that the industry plays an important role in the manager\'s market timing behavior, indicating that the companies belonging to a same industry make similar decisions with the purpose of exploring windows of opportunities that possibly related to their respective industries.

Made available in DSpace on 2010-04-20T20:51:51Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 3 98468.pdf.jpg: 15556 bytes, checksum: 82354d9e302b0f5851ce3c9150147d2f (MD5) 98468.pdf: 841055 bytes, checksum: d3f59690cddbb38713e374ee903838c6 (MD5) 98468.pdf.txt: 263196 bytes, checksum: 5c0fa64209b55216a17821d5d4e86f3a (MD5) Previous issue date: 2004-04-15T00:00:00Z / Este trabalho analisa a abordagem oportunista nas decisões de financiamento, buscando evidências desse comportamento nas empresas brasileiras. O oportunismo sugere que o administrador escolha as fontes de recursos economicamente mais vantajosas no momento da decisão, não se preocupando com uma hierarquia de captação de fundos, ou com a manutenção de um nível de endividamento ótimo. As evidências empíricas apontam para a existência de oportunismo na escolha das fontes de financiamento e influência de fatores macroeconômicos na determinação do nível de endividamento. / We analyze the windows of opportunity theory in capital structure decisions, searching for evidences on this behaviour in Brazillian publicly held companies. The opportunistic approach suggests that managers make their capital structure choices based on economic advantages offered by each source of funds. That means, managers do not follow a pecking order nor a target adjustment model. Empirical evidences points to managerial opportunism behaviour in the financing decisions and strong macroeconomic factors influence on leverage. Public debt from Government competes with companies for sources of funds; interest rate and stock market liquidity are negatively related to leverage.

This document represents a doctoral thesis held under the Brazilian School of Public and Business Administration of Getulio Vargas Foundation (EBAPE/FGV), developed through the elaboration of three articles. The research that resulted in the articles is within the scope of the project entitled 'Windows of opportunities and knowledge networks: implications for catch-up in developing countries', funded by Support Programme for Research and Academic Production of Faculty (ProPesquisa) of Brazilian School of Public and Business Administration (EBAPE) of Getulio Vargas Foundation. / Submitted by Marne Santos de Melo (marne.melo@gmail.com) on 2016-05-03T22:11:34Z No. of bitstreams: 1 PhD Dissertation_MarneMelo_Final_Version.pdf: 2457125 bytes, checksum: 159e5ecfb2ba7a58c8f0bf57741590b7 (MD5) / Rejected by Marcia Bacha (marcia.bacha@fgv.br), reason: Aluna irá submeter novamente com o arquivo certo. Márcia Bacha on 2016-05-04T13:07:55Z (GMT) / Submitted by Marne Santos de Melo (marne.melo@gmail.com) on 2016-05-04T22:38:35Z No. of bitstreams: 1 PhD Dissertation_MarneMelo_Final_Version.pdf: 2754297 bytes, checksum: 00edcb7f67f2dec68188195feee49ba2 (MD5) / Rejected by Marcia Bacha (marcia.bacha@fgv.br), reason: A aluna irá submeter novamente. on 2016-05-05T18:36:20Z (GMT) / Submitted by Marne Santos de Melo (marne.melo@gmail.com) on 2016-05-05T21:20:52Z No. of bitstreams: 1 PhD Dissertation_MarneMelo_Final_Version_05052016.pdf: 2534725 bytes, checksum: f6d42a161060acc546b6d30458d2a77e (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by ÁUREA CORRÊA DA FONSECA CORRÊA DA FONSECA (aurea.fonseca@fgv.br) on 2016-05-09T14:38:57Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 PhD Dissertation_MarneMelo_Final_Version_05052016.pdf: 2534725 bytes, checksum: f6d42a161060acc546b6d30458d2a77e (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Maria Almeida (maria.socorro@fgv.br) on 2016-05-16T17:05:04Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 PhD Dissertation_MarneMelo_Final_Version_05052016.pdf: 2534725 bytes, checksum: f6d42a161060acc546b6d30458d2a77e (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-05-16T17:05:21Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 PhD Dissertation_MarneMelo_Final_Version_05052016.pdf: 2534725 bytes, checksum: f6d42a161060acc546b6d30458d2a77e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-04-15 / This study aims to investigate the theory of catch-up cycles in the setting of developing countries. We chose the Brazilian seeds sector as the locus of investigation. In order to explain catching up and industrial leadership, as suggested by the authors, we confront changes at the global level and windows of opportunities that emerged with responses from the main company of the sector - Embrapa. In our empirical study, we made use of in-depth interviews with historical and longitudinal analysis. We found evidence that changes in key dimensions alter in importance over time, but that institutions/public policy seem to be the forces that most contribute to strong dominance of transnational companies nowadays. Moreover, differently than suggested by some authors (although they are mainly focused in the Argentinean seeds sector), we find evidence that transnational companies – particularly the Gene Giants – do are driven the process of seeds innovation in the industry. In addition, the highest amount of launching of new varieties each year is not synonymous of more (or bigger) innovation; dominant positions in the market is not directly associated with higher levels of technological innovation. In fact, market innovation – e. g., commercial approach of transnational companies, which includes financing of producers and sales distribution - seems to be, at least, as relevant as technological innovation in the setting of seeds industry. / Esse estudo busca investigar a teoria de ciclos de 'catch-up' no contexto de países em desenvolvimento. O setor de sementes agrícolas brasileiro foi escolhido como locus de investigação. A fim de explicar catching up e lideranças na indústria, foram confrontadas mudanças e janelas de oportunidades ocorridas no nível global com as respostas da principal empresa do setor – Embrapa. No estudo empírico, fizemos uso de entrevistas em profundidade e análise histórica e longitudinal. Foram encontradas evidências de que mudanças em dimensões-chave alteram em importância ao longo do tempo, mas que instituições/políticas públicas parecem ser as forças que mais tem contribuído para a forte dominância das empresas transnacionais atualmente. Além disso, diferentemente do que tem sido sugerido por alguns autores (embora eles estivessem focados principalmente no setor de sementes da Argentina), encontramos evidências de que as empresas transnacionais - em particular as 'Gene Giants' - realmente tem direcionado o processo de inovação na indústria de sementes. Além disso, a maior quantidade de lançamento de novas variedades a cada ano não é sinónimo de mais (ou de maior) inovação; posições dominantes no mercado também não estão diretamente associadas a níveis mais elevados de inovação tecnológica. Na verdade, a inovação no mercado - e. g, abordagem comercial das empresas transnacionais, o que inclui o financiamento de produtores e de distribuição de vendas - parecem ser, pelo menos, tão relevantes quanto a inovação tecnológica no cenário da indústria de sementes. RESUMO 2 - UNDERSTANDING THE DYNAMICS OF NETWORK STRUCTURES: ALLYING THE GROUNDED-THEORY TO SOCIAL NETWORK APPROACH APPLIED TO THE BRAZILIAN SEEDS SECTOR O objetivo deste trabalho é lançar luz sobre uma lacuna previamente identificada em Powell et al. (2005) e posteriormente explorada em Ahuja, Soda e Zaheer (2012): a compreensão das origens e evolução das estruturas de rede intensivas em conhecimento; em outras palavras, seu dinamismo. Especificamente, essa pesquisa examinou como e por que redes centradas em uma empresa pública de P&D de um país em desenvolvimento têm evoluído para assumir as formas que elas possuem. No processo de examinar a questão de pesquisa, especial atenção foi dada para as várias razões pelas quais os setores público e privado buscam estabelecer parcerias. O contexto empírico escolhido foi o setor de sementes agrícolas do Brasil, mas nos focamos especificamente no programa de melhoramento de soja da Embrapa, a principal empresa representativa do setor. A lógica subjacente utilizada para desenvolver nosso arcabouço teórico foi a 'grounded theory'. O desenho de pesquisa é um estudo de caso único longitudinal, estudo indutivo, mas também foi feito uso da abordagem de rede social. Com base nos achados de pesquisa, nós desenvolvemos um arcabouço teórico para compreender o dinamismo das redes. Nós constatamos diferentes interesses entre as empresas, que mudaram ao longo do tempo, e diferentes efeitos para cada tipo de rede. Além disso, foi confirmada a crescente relevância da interação entre atores organizacionais e importantes 'trade-offs' entre organizações públicas e privadas. RESUMO 3 - TECHNOLOGICAL TRAJECTORY OF EMBRAPA AND THE CONQUEST OF CERRADO Apesar da existência de inúmeros estudos dedicados a investigar a trajetória tecnológica das empresas, pouca atenção tem sido dada a algumas características dessa trajetória. Como exemplo, podem ser citados o tempo que as empresas levam para avançar tecnologicamente e a influência de fatores, tais como as redes de conhecimento e mecanismos de aprendizagem na capacidade tecnológica das firmas. Na verdade, a relação redes-capacidades é considerada por muitos autores uma das mais importantes interações, que tem sido negligenciada. Esse artigo busca minimizar esses 'gaps' na literatura. Especificamente, nós examinamos a trajetória tecnológica da principal empresa brasileira do setor de sementes agrícolas – Embrapa – incluindo o tempo para avançar tecnologicamente e a relação redes de conhecimento-capacidades tecnológicas. No processo de examinar a trajetória tecnológica da Embrapa, nós examinamos como a Embrapa conquistou o Cerrado e mensuramos alguns importantes resultados de inovações tecnológicas – produção e exportação. Por meio de um estudo de caso longitudinal, nós concluímos que a Embrapa adotou diferentes trajetórias ao longo do tempo. Inicialmente a empresa adotou a trajetória 'path-following', em seguida a trajetória 'path-skipping' e, posteriormente, a trajetória 'path-creating'. A Embrapa também mudou seus parceiros ao longo do tempo (ou eles tiveram seus papeis adaptados às condições da época). Com a ajuda de parceiros, a Embrapa foi capaz de rapidamente alcançar o nível de liderança mundial. Ademais, indicadores de produção e exportação provaram ser relevantes para mensurar resultados de esforços de inovação.

The thesis: "The Causes of Iraqi War: Why the US Administration decided to invade Iraq in 2003" focuses on explanation why the administration of the USA made that step. The specification of the roots of war is based on five causes and seventeen subcauses according to the essay of Stephen Van Evera and other scholars, and the paper trough the methodology of text's analyzes investigates behavior, decision-making process and motivations of the US administration (the level of units) and some steps of the US president G. W. Bush (individual level) in the process leading to the war in Iraq. Concerning the causes of war, the paper introduces different concepts of the offense-defense balance and analyzes whether the balance was disrupted. Secondly, it examines the role of cumulative resources in Iraq like oil, territory and state structures and it shows how they influenced the decision. Third, it searches for the linkage among an emergence of a new threat and responses to it which mouthed to the acceptance of the concept of the first move advantage. Fourth, the thesis accounts for the roots of misperception, where they originate and how they operated in perception of the US administration of the Iraqi threat. Finally, the investigation of the last root of conflict explains why and how windows of...