Submitted by Filipe dos Santos (fsantos@pucsp.br) on 2018-01-19T10:47:15Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Ana Clara Aben-Athar Barcessat.pdf: 1265530 bytes, checksum: cf102b64af0858cf60876983b04f2903 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-01-19T10:47:15Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Ana Clara Aben-Athar Barcessat.pdf: 1265530 bytes, checksum: cf102b64af0858cf60876983b04f2903 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-12-18 / Conselho Nacional de Pesquisa e Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico - CNPq / The so-called natural disasters have been the subject of much debate and study, both within and outside the field of Law. They entail, therefore, demands that require regulation, preferably in a more direct and effective way in the prevention and mitigation of the phenomena. In the present study, it has been chosen to use only the denomination 'disasters' due to the understanding that, although they have factors of natural origin in its causes, it is not possible to dissociate human action when these events occur. The main focus of this theoretical approach is the disasters that occur in Brazil, its most frequent causes, its most significant damages, the existing regulation in Brazil and in comparative Law, and the existence or not of effective legal accountability. To do this, research done in the institutes of Environmental Law is used, in view of its transversality with this branch of Law and in several fields of knowledge that surpass the orbit of Law, due to the understanding of the intrinsic interdisciplinarity in this matter and the necessity of the expansion of Its scope of action in the country, since disasters are events that generate, to a greater or lesser degree, destruction wherever they pass, impacting the environment, such as human relations, private goods and very often, even the survival of the populations on the affected sites / Os chamados desastres naturais tem sido objeto de muito debate e estudo, dentro e fora do âmbito do Direito. Acarretam, portanto, demandas que urgem regulamentação, de preferência mais direcionada e efetiva na prevenção e mitigação desses fenômenos. No presente estudo, preferiu-se utilizar apenas a denominação ‘desastres’ por entender que, ainda que tenham em suas causas, fatores de origem natural, não se pode dissociar a ação humana quando da ocorrência desses eventos. O foco principal dessa abordagem teórica são os desastres ocorrentes no Brasil, suas causas mais frequentes, seus danos mais significativos, a regulamentação existente no Brasil e no Direito comparado e a existência ou não de efetiva responsabilização legal. Para isso, utiliza-se de pesquisa nos institutos próprios do Direito Ambiental, tendo em vista sua transversalidade com esse ramo e em diversos campos do conhecimento que ultrapassam a órbita do Direito, por entender-se a interdisciplinaridade intrínseca nessa matéria e a necessidade da ampliação de seu escopo de atuação no país, uma vez que os desastres são eventos que geram, em maior ou menor grau, destruição por onde passam, impactando o meio ambiente, as relações humanas, os bens privados e, com muita frequência, até mesmo a sobrevivência das populações humanas dos locais afetados

One important aspect related to the management of water resources under future climate variation is the occurrence of extreme precipitation events. In order to prepare for extreme events, namely floods and droughts, it is important to understand how future climate variability will influence the occurrence of such events. Recent advancements in regional climate modeling efforts provide additional resources for investigating the occurrence of extreme events at scales that are appropriate for regional hydrologic modeling. This study utilizes data from three Regional Climate Models (RCMs), each driven by the same General Circulation Model (GCM) as well as a reanalysis dataset, all of which was made available by the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). A comparison between observed historical precipitation events and NARCCAP modeled historical conditions over Oregon's Willamette River basin was performed. This comparison is required in order to investigate the reliability of regional climate modeling efforts. Datasets representing future climate signal scenarios, also provided by NARCCAP, were then compared to historical data to provide an estimate of the variability in extreme event occurrence and severity within the basin. Analysis determining magnitudes of two, five, ten and twenty-five year return level estimates, as well as parameters corresponding to a representative Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution, were determined. The results demonstrate the importance of the applied initial/boundary driving conditions, the need for multi-model ensemble analysis due to RCM variability, and the need for further downscaling and bias correction methods to RCM datasets when investigating watershed scale phenomena.

In my thesis, I address two important issues: (i) the creation of a price signal through the use of carbon markets (or cap-and-trade schemes) and (ii) the necessity to reach a global agreement on greenhouse gas emission reduction policies. It consists of three separate papers. Chapters 2 and 3 of this thesis emphasize theoretically and empirically the fact that achieving international cooperation on climate change is very difficult. Chapter 3 suggests that the global nature of the climate change problem and the design of climate agreements (i.e. the means available to reduce CO2 emissions) may explain this failure. Chapter 2 shows theoretically that asymmetric information between countries may exacerbate the free-rider problem. These two chapters also provide some possible solutions to the lack of international cooperation. To address the issue of information asymmetry, chapter 2 proposes the creation of institutions in charge of gathering and certifying countries' private information before environmental negotiations. If achieving international cooperation is still not possible, chapter 3 suggests that regional cooperation may supplement global treaties. Chapter 1 presents an example of such a regional agreement to reduce CO2 emissions. The EU emissions trading system is a cornerstone of the European Union's policy to combat climate change. However, as it is highlighted in chapter 1, the design of such regional carbon markets really matters for their success in reducing carbon emissions. This chapter shows the interactions between intertemporal permit trading and the incentives of firms to undertake long-term investments in abatement technologies. / Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

The rising temperature of the earth due to climate change has shown to alter the variations of hydro-climate variables, including their intensities, frequencies and durations. Extreme events such as floods are, in particular, susceptible to any disturbances in climate cycles. As such it is important to provide policymakers with sufficient knowledge about the probable impacts of climate change on hydrologic extremes and most importantly on floods, which have the highest impacts on the societies. For this reason analysis of hydro-climate extremes is commonly performed using data at each site (or grid cell), however due to the limited number of extreme events, these analyses are not robust. Current methods, such as the regional frequency analysis, which combine data from different locations are incapable of incorporating the spatial structure of the data as well as other explanatory variables, and do not explicitly, assess the uncertainties. In this thesis the spatial hierarchical Bayesian model is proposed for hydro-climate extreme analyses using data recorded at each site or grid. This method combines limited number of data from different locations, estimates the uncertainties in different stages of the hierarchy, incorporates additional explanatory variables (covariates), and can be used to estimate extreme events at un-gaged sites. The first project develops a spatial hierarchical Bayesian method to model the extreme runoffs over two spatial domains in the Columbia River Basin, U.S. The model is also employed to estimate floods with different return levels within time slices of fifteen years in order to detect possible trends in runoff extremes. Continuing on the extreme analysis, the impact of climate change on runoff extremes is investigated over the whole Pacific Northwest (PNW). This study aims to address the question of how the runoff extremes will change in the future compared to the historical time period, investigate the different behaviors of the regional climate models (RCMs) regarding the runoff extremes, and assess the seasonal variations of runoff extremes. Given the increasing number of climate model simulations the goal of the third project is to provide a multi-model ensemble average of hydro-climate extremes and characterize the inherent uncertainties. Outputs from several regional climate models provided by NARCCAP are considered for the analysis in all seasons. Three combination scenarios are defined and compared for multi-modeling of extreme runoffs. The biases of each scenario are calculated and the scenario with the least bias is selected for projecting seasonal runoff extremes. The aim of the fourth project is to quantify and compare the uncertainties regarding global climate models to the ones from the hydrologic model structures in climate change impact studies. Various methods have been proposed to downscale the coarse resolution General Circulation Model (GCM) climatological variables to the fine scale regional variables; however fewer studies have been focused on the selection of GCM predictors. Additionally, the results obtained from one downscaling technique may not be robust and the uncertainties related to the downscaling scheme are not realized. To address these issues, in the fifth study we employed Independent Component Analysis (ICA) for predictor selection which determines spatially independent GCM variables (as discussed in Appendix A). Cross validation of the independent components is employed to find the predictor combination that describes the regional precipitation over the upper Willamette basin with minimum error. These climate variables along with the observed precipitation are used to calibrate three downscaling models: Multi Linear Regression (MLR), Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Adaptive-Network-Based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS).

Considerable interest lies in understanding the hydrologic response to climate change in the upper Deschutes Basin, particularly as it relates to groundwater fed streams. Much of the precipitation occurring in the recharge zone falls as snow. Consequently, the timing of runoff and recharge depend on accumulation and melting of the snowpack. Numerical modeling can provide insights into evolving hydrologic system response for resource management consideration. A daily mass and energy balance model known as the Deep Percolation Model (DPM) was developed for the basin in the 1990s. This model uses spatially distributed data and is driven with daily climate data to calculate both daily and monthly mass and energy balance for the major components of the hydrologic budget across the basin. Previously historical daily climate data from weather stations in the basin was used to drive the model. Now we use the University of Washington Climate Impact Group's 1/16th degree daily downscaled climate data to drive the DPM for forecasting until the end of the 21st century. The downscaled climate data is comprised from the mean of eight GCM simulations well suited to the Pacific Northwest. Furthermore, there are low emission and high emission scenarios associated with each ensemble member leading to two distinct means. For the entire basin progressing into the 21st century, output from the DPM using both emission scenarios as a forcing show changes in the timing of runoff and recharge as well as significant reductions in snowpack. Although the DPM calculated amounts of recharge and runoff varies between the emission scenario of the ensemble under consideration, all model output shows loss of the spring snowmelt runoff / recharge peak as time progresses. The response of the groundwater system to changing in the time and amount of recharge varies spatially. Short flow paths in the upper part of the basin are potentially more sensitive to the change in seasonality. However, geologic controls on the system cause this signal to attenuate as it propagates into the lower portions of the basin. This scale-dependent variation to the response of the groundwater system to changes in seasonality and magnitude of recharge is explored by applying DPM calculated recharge to an existing regional groundwater flow model.

The primary aim of my research was to identify the impacts and adaptation options of climate variability and change on agricultural production in Limpopo province. The following objectives were identified: To understand the impacts of climate variability and change on agricultural production in Limpopo province , To assess the impacts of climate variability and change on agricultural production in Limpopo province and To identify adaptation measures that reduces the impacts of climate variability and change on agricultural production in Limpopo province. A representative sample of 300 farmers aged 16- 65+ years (46 percent males and 54 percent females) participated in the study. The study involved Sekhukhune and Capricorn districts, with 56 percent farmers in Capricorn and 44 percent in Sekhukhune district. The following 11 local municipalities were visited: Elias Motsoaledi, Makhuduthamaga, Fetakgomo, Ephraim Mogale, Tubatse, Lepelle Nkumpi, Blouberg, Aganang, Polokwane, and Molemole. The Limpopo province is one of the poorest provinces in the country, characterized by high unemployment rate, poverty and lack of access to a range of resources that frustrate majority of people ability to secure their livelihoods. In this study the province's economic, biological and physical environment were highlighted. The study further covers the province, s farming enterprises, systems, categories, infrastructure as well as other constraints that maybe facing the emerging farmer in the province. It is assumed that the majority of farmers in both the Capricorn and Sekhukhune districts are using different coping and adaptation strategies in order to increase their crop yields. Literature studies show that climate variability and change adaptation strategies vary from area to area due to agro ecological zones and the harshness of the effects of climate variability and change. It has also been noted that climate change is fast pushing the poorest and most marginalized communities beyond their capacity to respond. This study draws on lessons learned, experiences, and other existing research on climate change impacts and adaptation across the globe. It sets out what is needed to enable people living in poverty to adapt to climate change, and a range of interventions that are available across climate - sensitive sectors. The study has provided a literature review of the impact of climate change on the agricultural sector. In fact, it has documented some of the likely impacts of climate change based on International, continental, regional, national and provincial agricultural sector. The study highlighted the impact of climate change also on various climate - sensitive sectors including understanding water resources, forestry, natural ecosystem human health, infrastructure and coastal zones. This research also confirmed that being a full time farmer, gender, information on climate change, information received through extension services and adaptation to climate change are some of the important determinants of agricultural production, food scarcity and unemployment. A worrying situation is reviewed globally in this study and it can be concluded that climate variability and change is affecting every sector in society and it needs urgent attention. Statistics was used to determine climate variability and change impact on agricultural production. Results indicate that farmers are aware that Limpopo province is getting warmer and drier with increased frequency of droughts, changes in the timing of rains, observed trends oftemperature and precipitation. The study also presented perceived adaptation strategies used by farmers in Limpopo province. Some of their perceived adaptation strategies included: (a) Soil management strategies, (b) Water management strategies and (c) Others like use of subsidies and use of insurance. Other important adaptation options being used by farmers were also discussed in this study including different adaptation measures against colds, heat, frost, abnormal wind, hail, lack of extension support, nematodes, insecticides, worms, temperature and rainfall. The results of this study are potentially valuable to the agricultural sector considering the threats that climate change poses across climate sensitive sectors. / Environmental Sciences / D. Phil. (Environmental Management)

Thesis (MSc (Botany and Zoology))--University of Stellenbosch, 2006. / Global circulation models predict that the Cape Floristic Region (CFR), a biodiversity hotspot, in the near future will be subjected to rising temperatures and widespread droughts as a result of rising atmospheric CO2 causing global climate change. It is predicted that climate change will lead to a southward shift of the Succulent Karoo, a neighbouring more drought tolerant biome, and a possible invasion of Fynbos, the main vegetation type of the CFR, by succulent species. In this research project, the effects of climate change on Fynbos, and the likelihood of Succulent Karoo invading Fynbos are assessed by means of various monitoring and experimental studies on an altitudinal gradient spanning a natural transition between fynbos and succulent karoo vegetation. An analysis of plant species diversity and turnover on the gradient revealed high species turnover between succulent karoo and the rest of the gradient, associated with a boundary between two soil types: shale (associated with succulent karoo) and sandstone (associated with fynbos). Phenological monitoring of fynbos species across the gradient showed how growth of fynbos species is affected negatively by high temperatures, and that low but regular rainfall is required to sustain growth during the dry Mediterranean summer. Retrospective growth analysis of Proteaceae species pairs with contrasting range sizes revealed that small geographic ranges do not signify low tolerance of climate variation, but rather that faster growing species are more sensitive to interannual climate variation than slow growing species. Exposing fynbos species to experimental drought confirmed that faster growing species will be more severely affected by climate change than slow growing species with conservative water use strategies. This experiment also confirmed the importance of rainfall reliability for growth in fynbos species when a naturally occurring prolonged dry period affected some species more severely than the drought treatment of an average reduction in rainfall. A reciprocal transplant experiment exposed fynbos seedlings to both warmer and drier conditions when they were planted outside of their natural ranges in the succulent karoo. Soil type as a barrier to invasion of fynbos by succulent karoo was also tested. Soil type was found to be not limiting to succulent karoo species and competition and disturbance was revealed to be more important in determining the fynbos-succulent karoo boundary than climate. It was concluded that productivity in fynbos will be adversely affected by rising temperatures and that differing responses to climate change between slow and fast growing species will lead to shifts in dominance among species, and consequently altered community structures and vegetation dynamics. Fires are likely to facilitate invasions of marginal habitats by succulent karoo because of sensitivity of fynbos regeneration stages to high temperatures and drought.

Thesis (MSc)--University of Stellenbosch, 2007. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Climate has shown some remarkable changes over the past century, especially at the polar and sub-polar regions. Southern Ocean Islands provide good models for studies related to climate change effects, since effects may be evident in the short term and may also be clearer. Marion Island is an example of such a system with a harsh abiotic environment, and low species richness often vulnerable to change. Climate change is predicted, and also reported, to have biological consequences on plant communities, affecting the phenology, morphology, and the interaction between individuals and species. This study examines the association between the keystone plant species, Azorella selago Hook. (Apiaceace), and its dominant epiphyte Agrostis magellanica Lam. (Poaceae). Two complimentary approaches were used, one observational and the other experimental. The main objective for the observational study was to quantify bioticallyrelevant microclimate temperature, as well as the morphology, epiphyte load and phenology of A. selago at three different altitude sites on Marion Island. This provided information on baseline variation for understanding specific variability in plant response to the experimental part of this study, against which future patterns arising from biological monitoring can be compared. Studying plants at different altitudes provides a possible analogue for temperature-related climate change consequences for the ecology of A. selago, and its interaction with A. magellanica. The microclimate temperature associated with A. selago differed between the three sites examined. This difference was related to local topographic conditions and altitude differences. Cushion size differed distinctively between the three altitude sites, with this difference related to environmental heterogeneity such as differences in age and substrate structure. Azorella selago annual growth rate was estimated through stem length and the number of leaves on both exposed and shaded stems. Within-site variability, as well as epiphyte cover were found to be the contributing factors on A. selago annual growth rate. This highlights the importance of site-specificity when estimating growth rate within and between different altitude sites. Leaf characteristics differed between the sites, with this attributed to local habitat conditions, such as topography, as well as epiphyte cover. As expected, the difference in leaf size between exposed and shaded leaves demonstrated a larger specific leaf area on leaves shaded by A. magellanica. Agrostis magellanica abundance and density were altitudinally related, with A. selago demonstrating facilitation effects on A. magellanica. The trend shown in this study suggests that in spite of general facilitative effect of A. selago on A. magellanica towards higher altitudes, the abiotic environmental threshold for A. magellanica occurs at lower altitudes than it does for A. selago. Phenological differences were also apparent between the three sites. The objectives of the experimental part of this study were to quantify the effect of the dominant epiphyte, A. magellanica on biotically-relevant microclimatic temperatures, as well as on the phenology and physical condition of A. selago. Different treatments were applied to cushions at the three altitude sites to examine the shading effect of epiphytic A. magellanica on cushion plants, as well as the effect of treatment-related disturbance. Azorella selago microclimate temperature showed no significant difference between treatments, suggesting that on average epiphytic A. magellanica cover has no effect on cushion microclimate temperature. The percentage of flower budding and flowering of A. selago was negatively related to epiphyte cover. Cushion vitality was also responsive to epiphyte cover, with higher vitality scores on low grass covered cushions than on high grass cushions. This shows that A. magellanica competes with A. selago, while A. selago facilitates A. magellanica. Heavy epiphyte numbers impose negative effects on A. selago vegetative and reproductive performance, as well as cushion vitality. Therefore, the results of this research show that the vegetative and reproductive performance of A. selago and cushion vitality are likely to be negatively affected under ongoing climate change on Marion Island if this brings about heavier epiphyte loads on this keystone cushion plant species. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: In die afgelope eeu het die klimaat in die Antarktiese en sub-Antarktiese gebiede merkwaardige verandering getoon. Die Suidelike See Eilande dien as goeie modelle vir studies verwant aan die gevolge van klimaatsverandering, aangesien die kort termyn effekte in die gebiede duideliker mag wees in die toekoms. Marion Eiland is ‘n voorbeeld van so ‘n sisteem, met ‘n ruwe abiotiese omgewing en lae spesies rykheid, wat vatbaar is vir verandering. Daar word voorspel, en is reeds bevind dat klimaatsverandering biologiese gevolge op plant gemeenskappe het, in terme van morfologie, fenologie en die interaksie tussen individue en spesies. Hierdie studie ondersoek die assosiasie tussen die hoeksteen plant spesie, Azorella selago (Apiaceace), en sy dominante epifietiese gras, Agrostis magellanica Lam. (Poaceae). Die studie is op twee komplimentêre maniere benader, naamlik deur waarneming en eksperiment. Die hoof doel van die studie was om die biotiese belang van mikroklimaat temperatuur te kwantifiseer, en die hoeveelheid epifiete, die morfologie en die fenologie van A. selago te bepaal by drie verskillende hoogtes op Marion Eiland. Laasgenoemde het inligting verskaf oor die variasie in die reaksie van plante tot die eksperimentele aspek van die studie, waarteen patrone vanaf toekomstige biologiese beheer vergelyk kon word. Deur plante te bestudeer by verskillende hoogtes bo seespieël word ‘n moontlike analoog vir die gevolge van temperatuur-verwante klimaatverandering in terme van die ekologie van A. selago, en laasgenoemde se interaksie met A. magellanica verskaf. Die mikroklimaat temperatuur geassosieer met A. selago verskil tussen dié drie liggings. Die versil was verwant aan die plaaslike topografiese toestande en die verskillende hoogtes bo seespieël. Die grootte van die kussingplante het duidelik versil tussen die drie liggings, met die verskille verwant aan die omgewing se heterogeneïteit, byvoorbeeld die verskille in ouderdom en substraat struktuur. Azorella selago se jaarlikse groeitempo was bepaal deur die stingel lengte en die aantal blare, op beide die wat oorskadu is deur die gras, en die was nie oorskadu is nie. Daar is gevind dat die faktore wat bygedra het tot die jaarlikse groeitempo van A. selago, varieër binne die verskillende liggings, en bedekking deur epifiete. Dit beklemtoon die belang van spesifisiteit van ligging wanneer groeitempo in en tussen die liggings van verskillende hoogtes bepaal word. Die blaar eienskappe het verskil tussen verskillende liggings, as gevolg van plaaslike habitat toestande, soos topografie en bedekking deur epifiete. Soos verwag, het die blare wat oorskadu was deur A. magellanica ‘n groter spesifieke blaar area getoon as blare wat blootgestel was. Die hoeveelheid en digtheid van Agrosits magellanica was verwant aan hoogte bo seespieël, met A. selago wat fasiliterende effekte toon op A. magellanica. Die tendens waargeneem in hierdie studie is dat ten spyte van die algemene fasiliterende effek van A. selago op A. magellanica, die abiotiese omgewingsdrempel op ‘n laer hoogte is vir A. magellanica as vir A. selago. Fenologiese verskille was ook duidelik tussen die drie liggings. Die doel van die eksperimentele deel van die studie was om die effek van die dominante epifiet, A. magellanica, te bepaal op bioties relevante mikroklimaat temperature, asook op die fenologie en fiesiese toestand van A. selago. Verskeie behandelings is aangewend op die kussingplante by die drie liggings om die effek van skaduwee van die epifietiese A. magellanica op die plante te bepaal, asook die effek van versteurings versoorsaak deur die behandelings. Azorella selago se mikroklimaat temperatuur het geen betekenisvolle verskille tussen behandelings getoon nie, wat voorstel dat epifitiese A. magellanica oor die algemeen geen effek op die kussingplante se mikroklimaat temperatuur het nie. Daar was ‘n negatiewe verwantskap tussen die hoeveelheid epifiete op A. selago en die persentasie blomme en blomknoppe op die kussingplante. Die plante se vitaliteit was ook afhanklik van epifiet bedekking, met ‘n hoër vitaliteit telling vir kussingplante bedek met lae gras as die bedek met hoë gras. Dit toon dat A. magellanica met A. selago wedywer, terwyl A. selago vir A. magellanica fasiliteer. Hoë epifiet getalle het negatiewe effekte op A. selago se vegetatiewe en reproproduktiewe nakoming, asook die kussingplante se vitaliteit. Die resultate van hierdie studie toon dus dat die vegetatiewe en reproduktiewe nakoming van A. selago en kussingplant vitaliteit heel moontlik negatief geaffekteer sal word indien klimaatsverandering op Marion Eiland hoër epifiet getalle op die sleutel kussingplant spesie tot gevolg sal hê.

The primary aim of my research was to identify the impacts and adaptation options of climate variability and change on agricultural production in Limpopo province. The following objectives were identified: To understand the impacts of climate variability and change on agricultural production in Limpopo province , To assess the impacts of climate variability and change on agricultural production in Limpopo province and To identify adaptation measures that reduces the impacts of climate variability and change on agricultural production in Limpopo province. A representative sample of 300 farmers aged 16- 65+ years (46 percent males and 54 percent females) participated in the study. The study involved Sekhukhune and Capricorn districts, with 56 percent farmers in Capricorn and 44 percent in Sekhukhune district. The following 11 local municipalities were visited: Elias Motsoaledi, Makhuduthamaga, Fetakgomo, Ephraim Mogale, Tubatse, Lepelle Nkumpi, Blouberg, Aganang, Polokwane, and Molemole. The Limpopo province is one of the poorest provinces in the country, characterized by high unemployment rate, poverty and lack of access to a range of resources that frustrate majority of people ability to secure their livelihoods. In this study the province's economic, biological and physical environment were highlighted. The study further covers the province, s farming enterprises, systems, categories, infrastructure as well as other constraints that maybe facing the emerging farmer in the province. It is assumed that the majority of farmers in both the Capricorn and Sekhukhune districts are using different coping and adaptation strategies in order to increase their crop yields. Literature studies show that climate variability and change adaptation strategies vary from area to area due to agro ecological zones and the harshness of the effects of climate variability and change. It has also been noted that climate change is fast pushing the poorest and most marginalized communities beyond their capacity to respond. This study draws on lessons learned, experiences, and other existing research on climate change impacts and adaptation across the globe. It sets out what is needed to enable people living in poverty to adapt to climate change, and a range of interventions that are available across climate - sensitive sectors. The study has provided a literature review of the impact of climate change on the agricultural sector. In fact, it has documented some of the likely impacts of climate change based on International, continental, regional, national and provincial agricultural sector. The study highlighted the impact of climate change also on various climate - sensitive sectors including understanding water resources, forestry, natural ecosystem human health, infrastructure and coastal zones. This research also confirmed that being a full time farmer, gender, information on climate change, information received through extension services and adaptation to climate change are some of the important determinants of agricultural production, food scarcity and unemployment. A worrying situation is reviewed globally in this study and it can be concluded that climate variability and change is affecting every sector in society and it needs urgent attention. Statistics was used to determine climate variability and change impact on agricultural production. Results indicate that farmers are aware that Limpopo province is getting warmer and drier with increased frequency of droughts, changes in the timing of rains, observed trends oftemperature and precipitation. The study also presented perceived adaptation strategies used by farmers in Limpopo province. Some of their perceived adaptation strategies included: (a) Soil management strategies, (b) Water management strategies and (c) Others like use of subsidies and use of insurance. Other important adaptation options being used by farmers were also discussed in this study including different adaptation measures against colds, heat, frost, abnormal wind, hail, lack of extension support, nematodes, insecticides, worms, temperature and rainfall. The results of this study are potentially valuable to the agricultural sector considering the threats that climate change poses across climate sensitive sectors. / Environmental Sciences / D. Phil. (Environmental Management)

Du Protocole de Kyoto est née une série d’objectifs de réduction des émissions de GES. Le respect de ces objectifs peut entraîner des coûts très lourds pour les économies des pays développés engagés dans la lutte contre les changements climatiques. Pour minimiser les coûts imposés par ces objectifs, des instruments économiques ont été développés, avec notamment la création de marchés du carbone. Y participent les trois mécanismes de flexibilité du Protocole de Kyoto parmi lesquels figure le Mécanisme pour un Développement Propre (MDP). <p><p>Parmi les problèmes posés par ce mécanisme de compensation, il y a des disparités observées dans la répartition géographique de sa mise en œuvre, alors qu’il est censé contribuer au développement de nombreux pays non-Annexe I. Parmi ceux-ci, les Pays les Moins Avancés (PMA) en général et ceux d’Afrique en particulier restent largement sous-représentés. Pourtant, le MDP a été adopté à la fois comme une contribution innovatrice à l’atténuation des changements climatiques et comme un moteur de promotion du développement durable dans les pays en développement.<p><p>Dans ce contexte, l’objectif général de cette thèse est triple. Primo, elle vise à étudier en profondeur cet instrument en dégageant ses principales caractéristiques, y compris les disparités d’implantation d’activités de projets qui lui sont liées. Secundo, elle en examine les causes par une analyse des barrières ou freins à la mise en œuvre d’activités de projets du MDP dans ces PMA d’Afrique en général et au Burundi en particulier. Tertio, elle révèle les opportunités (avantages/bénéfices) potentielles qui restent toujours non valorisées par l’implémentation d’activités de projets éligibles au titre du MDP.<p><p>L’analyse menée montre que les disparités susmentionnées jouent essentiellement en faveur des grands pays émergents d’Asie et d’Amérique latine, ce qui va à l’encontre du principe d’équité. En effet, en décembre 2011, le Brésil, la Chine et l’Inde détenaient 72,7 % de toutes les activités de projets du MDP et 75,8 % de crédits-carbone attendus en 2012. A l’opposé, les PMA ne disposaient dans le même temps que de 1,3 % de toutes les activités de projets du MDP et 1,2 % de leurs crédits attendus d’ici 2012. Les PMA d’Afrique ne restent qu’avec des parts de l’ordre de 0,8 % et 0,9 % respectivement. Cette situation reste si drastiquement critique qu’il importe d’en déceler les raisons.<p><p>Des caractéristiques de l’instrument, des expériences menées jusqu’ici et de la situation dans des pays hôtes, il ressort que les barrières sont de deux types. D’une part, les barrières endogènes, c'est-à-dire les barrières liées à l’organisation interne des pays. D’autre part, les barrières exogènes qui sont liées essentiellement à l’organisation générale du processus du MDP. L’étude a permis ainsi de montrer que les barrières endogènes constituent le nœud du problème en termes de visibilité des pays hôtes dans le marché du MDP. Celle-ci reste largement limitée dans ce marché international du carbone. <p><p>Les barrières identifiées dans ce travail, en particulier les barrières endogènes, risquent de se révéler difficiles à lever, car elles exigent des réformes structurelles au sein de l’organisation politique, institutionnelle, économique, et juridique du pays hôte. En outre, l’intégration de ces barrières dans un système unique d’interrelations constitue un des points originaux du travail. Ces interrelations ne sont pas négligeables et complexifient l’application du mécanisme, car, dans la plupart des cas, une action amorcée pour lever une barrière peut s’avérer inefficace si d’autres barrières associées ne sont pas prises en compte.<p>L’étude s’est également attachée à évaluer les retombées potentielles liées à la mise en œuvre d’activités de projets du MDP au Burundi. Les principales opportunités perdues jusqu’ici se situent dans quelques secteurs socioéconomiques du pays, essentiellement dans la gestion des déchets et l’énergie. L’étude en a ainsi retenu des options technologiques susceptibles de contribuer à des solutions à la problématique de la gestion des déchets et de l’approvisionnement énergétique au Burundi, tout en favorisant la stabilisation d’émissions de GES. Il s’agit de technologies adaptées de compostage et de bio-méthanisation dans le secteur de la gestion des déchets et les technologies de production d’énergies à partir de sources renouvelables (hydro, solaire, biogaz) et d’amélioration de l’efficacité énergétique de la biomasse (foyers améliorés, carbonisation) dans le secteur de l’énergie. <p><p>Ces opportunités ont également été analysées suivant des critères et indicateurs de durabilité (matrice de développement durable du Gold Standard). Les résultats montrent que ces options technologiques peuvent apporter une contribution au développement durable du pays. En effet, les opportunités se rencontrent à la fois dans le développement social (création d’emplois, moyens de subsistance des pauvres, accès aux énergies propres, renforcement des capacités), le développement écologique (réduction des émissions de GES, amélioration de la qualité de l’air, de l’eau et du sol, sauvegarde de la biodiversité), et le développement économique et technologique (rémunération d’emplois créés, augmentation des investissements, transfert et autonomie technologiques).<p><p>Afin de faire bénéficier le pays des retombées des activités de projets du MDP, il est proposé des solutions qui peuvent contribuer à une levée/atténuation de ces barrières. Ces propositions forment une combinaison d’actions à mener au niveau international, régional et surtout local/national. Au niveau international, des organes habilités devraient apporter des réformes profondes au MDP. Au niveau régional, le renforcement des capacités par des actions de coopération pourrait favoriser l’échange d’expériences en la matière. Au niveau local/national, l’adoption des réformes profondes aux niveaux institutionnel, législatif et juridique, dans une logique d’améliorer les politiques de planification du développement socioéconomique et environnemental, rendrait le pays naturellement plus attractif. En particulier, la mise en place et la mise en œuvre d’une stratégie nationale du MDP pourrait contribuer à relever le défi. <p><p>Les propositions de solutions pour réduire les barrières à la mise en œuvre d’activités de projets du MDP sont susceptibles de stimuler l’investissement en général. Ainsi, toute stratégie adoptée dans cette logique peut contribuer non seulement à la participation du pays au processus du MDP, mais aussi à favoriser la mise en œuvre d’autres projets conventionnels de développement au niveau national. Finalement, la considération de ces différentes opportunités associées à la mise en œuvre d’activités de projets du MDP au niveau du pays par des instances habilitées (décideurs politiques, acteurs institutionnels et économiques) conduirait à faire de ce mécanisme une contribution utile au développement du pays/The Kyoto Protocol has established a series of targets for reducing GHG emissions. The fulfilment of these objectives may result in heavy costs for the economies of developed countries engaged in the fight against climate change. To minimize the costs imposed by these targets, economic instruments were developed, notably with the creation of carbon markets. The three flexible mechanisms of Kyoto Protocol are involved in this, one of which being the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). <p><p>Among the problems posed by this offset mechanism, disparities can be observed in regional distribution after it has been implemented, when it ought to be contributing towards the development of a number of Non-Annex I countries. Among these countries, the least developed ones (LDCs) in general and Africa ones in particular are largely under-represented. However, the CDM was adopted both as an innovative solution to mitigate climate change and as an engine to promote sustainable development in developing countries.<p><p>Within this context, the overall objective of this thesis is threefold. First of all, it aims to study this instrument in depth, by picking out its main characteristics, including the disparities in project activities implementation related to it. Secondly, it examines the causes for these disparities by analyzing the barriers or restrictions preventing implementation of CDM project activities in these African LDCs in general and in Burundi in particular. Its third purpose is to reveal the potential opportunities (advantages/benefits) which have yet to be developed by setting up eligible CDM project activities.<p><p>The analysis carried out shows that the aforementioned disparities come out in favor of the large emerging countries in Asia and Latin America primarily, which goes against the principle of equity. In fact, in December 2011, Brazil, China and India held 72.7% of all CDM project activities and 75.8% of carbon emission credits expected in 2012. On the contrary, for the same time period, the LDCs had only 1.3% of all CDM project activities and 1.2% of their carbon emission credits expected up until 2012. The African LDCs are left only with shares of 0.8% and 0.9% respectively. This situation is extremely critical. It is crucial to discover the reasons for it.<p><p>The instrument’s features, experiments carried out so far and the situation in host countries all reveal that the barriers fall into two categories. On the one hand, there are endogenous barriers, i.e. barriers related to the internal organization of countries. On the other hand, exogenous barriers are related to the general running of the CDM process especially. The study has thus revealed that the endogenous barriers are the crux of the problem where the presence of host countries is concerned in the CDM market. The visibility of host countries is rather limited in this international carbon market. <p><p>The barriers identified in this thesis, particularly endogenous ones, may be difficult to remove because they demand structural reforms in the political, institutional, economical and legal organization of the host country. In addition, the integration of these barriers into a single system of interrelationships is one of the original points of this thesis. These interrelationships are not insignificant and complicate the mechanism’s application, because in most cases, initiating an action to remove a barrier may be ineffective if other associated barriers are not taken into account.<p><p>The study has also focused on evaluating the potential impacts linked to the implementation of CDM project activities in Burundi. The main opportunities lost up to date are in some socioeconomic sectors in the country, particularly in the waste management and energy sectors. The study has therefore identified technological options that are likely to bring solutions to the question of waste management and energy supply in Burundi, while at the same time contributing to the stabilization of greenhouse gas emissions. These options are notably composting and anaerobic digestion technologies in the area of waste management, and energy generation technologies from renewable sources (hydro, solar, biogas) and improved energy efficiency of biomass (better households, carbonization) in the energy sector. <p> <p>These opportunities were also analyzed in accordance with sustainability criteria and indicators (Gold Standard sustainable development matrix). The results show that these technological options may contribute to sustainable development in the country. Indeed, the opportunities can be seen at the same time in social development (job creation, means of subsistence for the poor, clean energy access, capacity building); ecological development (reducing GHG emissions, improvement in quality of air, water and soil, preservation of biodiversity) and economic & technological development (better pay for jobs created, increased investment, technology transfer and technological autonomy).<p><p>In order to allow the country to take advantage of these opportunities through CDM project activities, it has been proposed solutions that can help raise/mitigate these barriers. These proposals are a combination of actions to be taken at international and regional levels and above all at a local/ national level. In the international arena, authorized bodies should make major reforms to the CDM. At a regional level, capacity building through joint actions could encourage the exchange of expertise in the field. Locally/nationally, adopting major reforms at institutional, legislative and legal levels, with a view to improving planning policies in socioeconomic and environmental development, would make the country naturally more attractive. In particular, establishing and implementing a national CDM strategy could also contribute towards taking up the challenge. <p><p>Proposals of solutions for mitigating barriers to implement CDM project activities are likely to stimulate investment in general. Thus, any strategy adopted along these lines can contribute not only to the country’s participation in the CDM process, but also to favoring implementation of other conventional projects for development at national level. Finally, considering these different opportunities associated with implementing CDM project activities in the country via authorized bodies (policymakers, institutional and economic actors) would lead to this mechanism being a useful contribution towards national development. <p> / Doctorat en Sciences / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished