The Caledon River Basin is located on one of the most water-scarce region on the African continent. The water resources of the Caledon River Basin play a pivotal role in socio-economic activities in both Lesotho and South Africa but the basin experiences recurrent severe droughts and frequent water shortages. The Caledon River is mostly used for commercial and subsistence agriculture, industrial and domestic supply. The resources are also important beyond the basin’s boundaries as the water is transferred to the nearby Modder River. The Caledon River is also a significant tributary to the Orange-Senqu Basin, which is shared by five southern African countries. However, the water resources in the basin are under continuous threat as a result of rapidly growing population, economic growth as well as changing climate, amongst others. It is therefore important that the hydrological regime and water resources of the basin are thoroughly evaluated and assessed so that they can be sustainably managed and utilised for maximum economic benefits. Climate change has been identified by the international community as one of the most prominent threats to peace, food security and livelihood and southern Africa as among the most vulnerable regions of the world. Water resources are perceived as a natural resource which will be affected the most by the changing climate conditions. Global warming is expected to bring more severe, prolonged droughts and exacerbate water shortages in this region. The current study is mainly focused on investigating the impacts of climate change on the water resources of the Caledon River Basin. The main objectives of the current study included assessing the past and current hydrological characteristics of the Caledon River Basin under current state of the physical environment, observed climate conditions and estimated water use; detecting any changes in the future rainfall and evaporative demands relative to present conditions and evaluating the impacts of climate on the basin’s hydrological regime and water resources availability for the future climate scenario, 2046-2065. To achieve these objectives the study used observed hydrological, meteorological data sets and the basin’s physical characteristics to establish parameters of the Pitman and WEAP hydrological models. Hydrological modelling is an integral part of hydrological investigations and evaluations. The various sources of uncertainties in the outputs of the climate and hydrological models were identified and quantified, as an integral part of the whole exercise. The 2-step approach of the uncertainty version of the model was used to estimate a range of parameters yielding behavioural natural flow ensembles. This approach uses the regional and local hydrological signals to constrain the model parameter ranges. The estimated parameters were also employed to guide the calibration process of the Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) model. The two models incorporated the estimated water uses within the basin to establish the present day flow simulations and they were found to sufficiently simulate the present day flows, as compared to the observed flows. There is an indication therefore, that WEAP can be successfully applied in other regions for hydrological investigations. Possible changes in future climate regime of the basin were evaluated by analysing downscaled temperature and rainfall outputs from a set of 9 climate models. The predictions are based on the A2 greenhouse gases emission scenario which assumes a continuous increase in emission rates. While the climate models agree that temperature, and hence, evapotranspiration will increase in the future, they demonstrate significant disagreement on whether rainfall will decrease or increase and by how much. The disagreement of the GCMs on projected future rainfall constitutes a major uncertainty in the prediction of water resources availability of the basin. This is to the extent that according to 7 out of 9 climate models used, the stream flow in four sub-basins (D21E, D22B, D23D and D23F) in the Caledon River Basin is projected to decrease below the present day flows, while two models (IPSL and MIUB) consistently project enhanced water resource availability in the basin in the future. The differences in the GCM projections highlight the margin of uncertainty involved predicting the future status of water resources in the basin. Such uncertainty should not be ignored and these results can be useful in aiding decision-makers to develop policies that are robust and that encompass all possibilities. In an attempt to reduce the known uncertainties, the study recommends upgrading of the hydrological monitoring network within the Caledon River Basin to facilitate improved hydrological evaluation and management. It also suggests the use of updated climate change data from the newest generation climate models, as well as integrating the findings of the current research into water resources decision making process.

This dissertation explored adaptation mechanisms and adaptation options employed by rural small-scale farmers at Dzindi Irrigation Scheme to achieve food security in the midst of climate change as well as reflecting on the role of the state in building capacity of rural small-scale farmers to adapt to climate change. The study employed qualitative research techniques and data was obtained through semi-structured interviews with 40 small-scale farmers at Dzindi smallholder irrigation scheme.Irrigation control, high yielding crop varieties (HYVs), drought resistant crop varieties, drip irrigation are among a host of adaptation strategies successfully employed by farmers at Dzindi. These strategies have been effective in giving the farmers a lifeline in terms of household food supply and income.However, lack of funding, modern infrastructure and equipment has hampered adaptation efforts at the scheme. This has been compounded by lack of support from the Government. Government seemingly has not done enough to capacitate and assist famers to adapt to climate change.

PhD (Agricultural Economics) / Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness / Climate change is a global phenomenon that has been of great concern and its tackle is of outmost importance for food security among other things. In response to climate change adaptation, the study intended to determine awareness of climate change, its critical determinants and impacts among farmers, particularly emerging farmers. The study also investigated socio-economic characteristics of farmers that play a vital role in selection of various adaptive strategies, furthermore, institutional factors that contributed in emerging farmers’ decision to either adapt or not to climate change were also investigated. The main aim of the study was to develop a model that could be used in future to enhance adaptation to climate change through various identified adaptive strategies in Limpopo province of South Africa. The study was conducted in five districts of Limpopo province, namely: Capricorn, Mopani, Sekhukhune, Vhembe and Waterberg. The study made use of structured questionnaire to collect data from 206 emerging farmers. A two-stage cluster sampling technique was employed to select participants of the study. Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS; version 25, 2017) was used to analyse the data; cross-tabulation, multinomial and binary logistic models were used for analysis. Preliminary descriptive statistics results from cross-tabulation indicated that farmers were aware of climate change; had noted various critical determinants of climate change and were aware of impacts of climate change during production seasons between 2014 and 2018. Using Multinomial Logit model, further analysis indicated that there are socio-economic characteristics that significantly influenced selection of various adaptive strategies among farmers. Variables that significantly influenced selection of various adaptive strategies were household size, farming experience, formal education, occupation, gender and monthly on-farm income. The study also discovered that institutional factors such as accessing different kinds of extension services, securing source of support and accessing climate change information such as weather forecast, positively and significantly influence farmers’ decision to adapt to climate change. Recommendations of the study were that there should be capacity building in a form of training programmes that promote climate change awareness as farmers need to be capacitated to enable them to take strategic decisions on a daily basis. Furthermore, it was also recommended that training of farmers should target illiterate farmers and farmer without off-farm occupation and specific needs of farmers should be taken into consideration when initiating adaptation initiatives as adaptation to climate change is best monitored at farm level. The study also recommended that various stakeholders such as community of practice, climatologists, and agro-meteorologists should provide various support to emerging farmers to improve farmers’ resilience towards climate change through adaptation. / NRF

MPH / Department of Public Health / Background: Climate change is a universal public health problem that affects developed and developing countries including South Africa. This environmental hazard causes damage of properties, injuries and death. In most cases, survivors experience psychosocial problems such as depression, anger and isolation after flood because of climate change. Purpose: The purpose of the study was to determine health effects of climate change at Ga- Mashamothane village, Fetakgomo Tubatse Municipality, South Africa. Methodology: A quantitative approach using cross-sectional descriptive design was used in this study. A sample of 352 households has been selected from the target population by means of simple random sampling. Self-administered questionnaires with closed-ended questions were administered to respondents between the age of 18 years and above who met the inclusion criteria. Permission to conduct the study was obtained from the Ethics Committee of the University of Venda. Data were analysed using Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS version 25) and presented in the form of tables, charts and graphs. Chi-square was used to test significant relationship between heavy rainfall and injuries, and between drought and malnutrition. Results: Three hundred and fifty-two (352) questionnaires were distributed to respondents and 258 questionnaires were satisfactorily completed and returned. The findings of the study showed that 177 (68.6%) of the respondents were male and 81 (31.4%) of the respondents were females. The results indicated that heavy rainfall and injuries statistically are significantly correlated (P-value =0.000). There was positive relationship between heavy rainfall and injuries, as majority of the respondents 242 (93.8%) sustained injuries after experiencing heavy rainfall. The results of the study indicated that drought and malnutrition statistically are significantly correlated (P-value =0.000). There was positive relationship between drought and malnutrition, as majority of respondents 225 (87.2%) suffered from malnutrition during drought. Conclusions: The study found that there is association between heavy rainfall and injuries and there is association between drought and malnutrition. Recommendations: There is a need of collaboration of several stakeholders such as local municipality, Department of Health, Department of Agriculture, Department of Labour and department of Basic Education to come up with strategies to protect people’s lives. / HWSETA

Climate change is recognized as one of the environmental challenges with disastrous consequences for the human well-being. Hence, there is no doubt that climate change is not only a great environmental concern, but also a developmental challenge that overlaps at many levels. Accordingly, the global community sees climate change and sustainable development as two major challenges of the 21st century that require urgent collective action. The aim of the study was to investigate and analyse South Africa’s policy response in addressing climate change, also considering the added dynamics and imperatives presented by the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development (AfSD) that enshrines 17 interwoven Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and 169 targets. In order to fulfil this task, five research objectives were developed; namely: (i) to determine the extent to which the South African government has been involved in domesticating and localizing the SDGs agenda (in general) since its birth in January 2016, (ii) to identify policies and institutions dealing with climate change mitigation (including sustainable consumption and production) and document the provisions of such policies, (iii) to determine policy coverage and institutional spread regarding the addressing of climate change adaptation and adaptive capacity, (iv) to audit and present an inventory of institutions and major financial arrangements existing as means of implementing climate change policy in South Africa, and (v) to establish measures in place to improve education, awareness-raising, and human and institutional capacity development on climate mitigation and adaptation, impact reduction and early warning. A research methodology was adopted which took the form of evaluation research. This research approach is mostly used in large bureaucratic organizations such as government to determine the extent to which a programme or policy is effective. The research design followed a Mixed-Methods Research (MMR), which combines qualitative and quantitative approaches. Primary data was collected from purposefully selected respondents, who participated in the online survey and face to face interviews. The analysis of data entailed the reduction and display of data. Data reduction and display made it possible to code, create themes and concepts; as well as enable the study to make cogent inferences and rational conclusions. In addition, primary data was complemented by document analysis that scrutinized relevant documents to climate change and sustainable development. The study concluded that South Africa has taken reasonable steps to achieve the SDGs because the National Development Plan (NDP) which is aligned to the SDGs was already being implemented. The study also showed that South Africa has put in place institutional mechanisms to implement the SDGs, even though it took longer to put them in place and have them operationalised. The study concluded that South Africa has policies and strategies designed to respond to climate change mitigation and adaptation. However, there are several challenges inherent in the policies and strategies that make them ineffective, including policy implementation inertia. While the study confirmed that there are institutions in place to implement climate change policies and strategies; it emerged that capacity is concentrated at the national level, as opposed to the provincial and local government levels, and relies on few experts which makes the system vulnerable and fragile. Regarding funding for both climate change and the SDGs, it emerged that South Africa does not budget enough money, and relies heavily on international donations. The study further revealed that there is dissatisfaction with the public’s involvement in climate change management in the country. It also highlighted the need to improve early warning systems and preparedness to respond to extreme weather events. Hence, the study suggests that there is a need for a serious introspection with regard to the implementation model to ensure that the issues raised by the study are resolved. / Environmental Sciences / Ph. D. (Environmental Management)

Environmental degradation is a global challenge that affects all. One of the most prominent impacts of environmental degradation is the climate change phenomenon. The adverse impacts of climate change have given rise to responses aimed at retarding, halting and learning to live with the already present effects of climate change. These responses to climate change fall into two broad categories: mitigation and adaptation. Mitigation addresses the climate change challenge through seeking a reduction or elimination of anthropogenic generated greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere. Adaptation on the other hand addresses climate change through reducing the adverse impacts of climate change as well as exploiting economic and social opportunities presented by climate change. Green procurement has been identified as one of the climate change intervention measures. This is because research shows that procurement policies and practices of both the public and private sectors have the potential to influence environmentally friendly modes of production and the provision of ‘greener’ goods and services that include infrastructure. In many developing countries the big spending power of the public sector, particularly municipalities, makes them influential players in the nature of goods and services production and provision. Against this background, this study investigates the role of South African metropolitan municipalities in addressing environmental decay through green procurement. Specifically, the study aims to assess the levels of green procurement practices of goods and services within South Africa metropolitan municipalities. This is achieved through; (i) determining the level of understanding of sustainable development, and (ii) determining the extent to which green procurement is practiced in South African metropolitan municipalities, and identifying policy and legislative requirements (if any) that support green procurement practices. Given the complexity of means, policy and practices around the green procurement drive; the study employed a mixed method approach. The mixed method approach employed three methods namely: document analysis, interviews and the use of a questionnaire. Analysis of data included content analysis, inductive thematic analysis and basic numerical analysis of the questionnaire, using MS Excel. The study made two broad findings; (i) there is generally a good understanding of the sustainable development discourse among South Africa’s metropolitan officials; and (ii) policy response to green procurement shows that the older metropolitans that include the City of Cape Town, City of Johannesburg, City of Tshwane, Ekurhuleni, eThekwini and Nelson Mandela Bay have made greater progress making explicit reference to green procurement in different policies compared to the younger metropolitans such as Buffalo City and Mangaung. Despite the general understanding of the sustainable development discourse and evidence of explicit reference to green procurement in some metropolitan policy documents there is a general lack of comprehensive implementation of green procurement practices across all the metropolitan municipalities. The current implementation is sporadic and largely through a number of projects that are not always linked to give rise to effective synergies. The study concludes that there is limited implementation of green procurement policies and strategies in all metropolitans. This may be attributed to limited policy understanding and lack of education and training around green economy transition and green procurement issues. The study recommends the mainstreaming of the green procurement concept into already existing policies and to establish new policies where there are none. There is a need to translate the policies into legislation and regulations that carry incentive to reward and encourage the desired green procurement practices. There is further need to put in place sanctions to discourage and halt undesired procurement practices. / Environmental Sciences / D. Litt. et Phil. (Environmental Management)

Climate change implication and rural livelihood capitals remain the major inextricable dimensions of sustainability in this twenty first century globally. As a result, the impact and outcome of climate change on rural livelihood capitals, including economic development cannot be overemphasized in Ngaka Modiri Molema District Municipality of the North West Province of South Africa, where the study took place. It is one of the largest maize production regions in South Africa, where a preponderance of the people in the province obtain their livelihood from agriculture which contributes enormously to the promotion of household’s food security. The study, therefore, investigated the adaptation strategies, awareness of climate change, factors that influenced climate change adaptation in North West Province of South Africa, with the aim of ascertaining the effects of climate change on livelihood capitals among small and emerging maize farmers. Stratified random sampling technique was used to select three hundred and forty-six (346) farmers who were interviewed from the study area, while a pre-tested questionnaire was administered to the maize farmers, aiming at matters related to climate change impact on livelihood and adaptation. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics while inferential statistical tools employed were Principal Component Analysis, Two-Stage Least Square regression model, Binary Logistic regression model, and Tobit regression model. The results of the study showed that climate change was linked to rural livelihood capitals as climate change awareness, low profit and co-operative finance were statistically significant (p<0.05). The study also established that majority of the rural farmers in the study area were aware of climate change, in which farm size, education, ownership of the farm, information received on climate change, source of climate change information, climate change information through extension services, channel of information received on climate change and support received on climate change were statistically significant (p<0.05). Factors such as farm size, household gender, type of farms, who owns the farm, land acquisition, source of climate change information, support received on climate change, and adaptation barrier were statistically significant (p<0.05) and influenced climate change adaptation in the study area. Conclusively, climate change is entwined with rural livelihood, and the variables that are significant to the study were identified. It was therefore recommended that government intervention, access to information, extension service and support, farmers’ networking, adoption of drought and heat stress tolerant seeds, indigenous knowledge should be improved, practiced and promoted among the rural farmers and the stakeholders involved in the study area. / Agriculture, Animal Health and Human Ecology / D. Phil. (Agriculture)

Climate change has become one of the most debated environmental risks. The world is faced with the threat of weather variability. There has been an increase in the frequency and severity of extreme weather events. There is rising concern that weather losses might affect the sustainability of insurance businesses. The primary obective of the study was to ascertain the significance of changes in temperature, precipitation and wind speeds in explaining changes in weather-related claims.Furthermore the reseach had three key secondary objectives, firstly to find if changes in annual average temperature levels lead to changes in weather-related claims. Secondly to determine if average annual wind speeds lead to changes in weather-related loss .Thirdly to establish if the average changes in annual rainfall or precipitation levels lead to changes in weather-related claims. Quantitatively this study explored the relationship between climate change and weather losses in South Africa. Temperature, rainfall, and wind speed were the main weather variables analysed. Lack of properly recorded insured weather losses was the major challenge. Nonetheless, total economic weather losses were used as a proxy for insured weather losses.The analysis employed regression, cointegration and vector error correction models. Study findings showed that climate change is influencing weather losses. The existence of correlation and causality between weather variables and losses was also affirmed. Thus the insurance industry should comprehensively incorporate climate change into its business strategy to minimise exposure. / Business Management / M. Com. (Business Management)

Thesis (MScFor)--Stellenbosch University, 2012. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The aim of this project was to determine the site effect- especially water availability - and the effect of cambial age on selected anatomical properties of Pinus radiata, in order to be able to predict possible changes in wood quality due to an expected change in climate. A second objective was to correlate ring and fibre properties, in order to determine, if ring properties could be used as a proxy to describe wood quality. The samples consisted of 12 trees, sampled at an age of 1 to 16 from six selected sites in the Western Cape, which ranged from water stressed to moist. Apart from the water availability all other external factors, such as elevation etc. were kept as equal as possible. Anatomical wood properties such as fibre length and fibre diameter, lumen diameter, cell wall thickness, ring width and earlywood/latewood ratio were determined and their change with cambial age and water availability was evaluated. Fibre length, fibre diameter and cell wall thickness increased with increasing cambial age, and ring width and earlywood/latewood ratio decreased with increasing cambial age. No significant correlations were found between any of the ring or fibre properties and water availability. Most of the fibre properties were significantly correlated with ring width and earlywood/latewood ratio when age was not considered as covariate, but showed no correlation when the age effect was excluded. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die doel van die projek was om die perseel se effek te bepaal, veral water beskikbaarheid, ten opsigte van die effek van kambium ouderdom en geselekteerde anatomiese eienskappe van Pinus radiata, om sodoende die moontike verandering in hout kwaliteit as gevolg van verwagte klimaatsverandering te voorspel. ‘n Tweede doelwit was om die ring en vesel eienskappe te korreleer en ook te bepaal of ring eienskappe gebruik kan word om hout kwaliteit te beskryf. Die monsters het bestaan uit bome van ses geselekteerde persele in die Wes Kaap en het gevarieer van ‘n water tekort na klam. Behalwe vir water beskikbaarheid is al die ander eksterne faktore, soos hoogte ens., konstant gehou waar moontlik. Anatomiese hout eienskappe soos vesel lengte en deursnee, sel deursnee, selwand dikte, ring wydte en E/L verhouding was bepaal asook die verandering met kambium ouderdom en water beskikbaarheid. Vesel lengte , vesel deursnee en selwand dikte het toegeneem met toename in kambium ouderdom, en ring wydte en E/L verhouding het afgeneem met toename in kambium ouderdom. Toename in water beskikbaarheid het gelei to afname in vesel lengte en selwand dikte, waar vesel deursnee, sel deursnee, E/L verhouding en ring wydte toegeneem het. Meeste van die vesel eienskappe het betekenisvol gekorrelleer met ring wydte en E/L verhouding wanneer ouderdom nie as ko-variant gebruik is nie.

Thesis (MSc)--Stellenbosch University, 2015. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Understanding the effects of climate change is one of the cardinal issues within the natural resource management circles. Increased droughts are part of these changes. Afrotemperate forests, as well as their drier Afromontane counterparts suffer from periodic and seasonal droughts respectively. To better understand the effect of droughts on these forests, three key species namely Olea capensis (Iron wood), Podocarpus latifolius (Common Yellow wood) and Pterocelastrus tricuspidatus (Candle wood), were analysed using dendroecologic techniques. Two sites in the Southern Cape were selected according to a West-to-East moisture gradient, with the drier site being close to George and the medium moist site at the Diepwalle estate in the vicinity of Knysna. Growth ring measurements from each of the species were used to calculate basal area and basal area increment during the lifetime of the trees. Drought years for the sites were then selected based on the Standardised Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), also indicated by the growth during the drought periods. Differences in growth patterns for all three species were observed. An event analysis was then used to quantify the difference in the resistance (Rt), recovery (Rc), resilience (Rs) and relative resilience (RRs). With values standardised around one (Rt, Rc and Rs) and zero (RRs), it was seen that the Candle wood had the highest (~0.92) resistance and the Yellow wood had the highest (~1.3) recovery after the drought. Iron wood stood apart from the other two species in the sense that it only reacted negatively towards the drought one year after the event in most cases. It was concluded that each of the species were significantly different in their reactions towards drought. This specific difference in drought reaction can give way to the possibility that the species together adapted to relieve the stress of a short drought by splitting the available resources over a longer period. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Dit is van uiterse belang vir bestuur doeleindes om die veranderende klimaat oor die wêreld te verstaan, insluitend die droogtes wat daarmee gepaard gaan. Die Afrotemperate woud-tipe, asook sy droeër teenstaander, die Afromontane, lei gereeld aan sporadiese en seisonale droogtes. Om hierdie woud-tipe se reaksie tot droogtes beter te verstaan, was drie boom spesies naamlik Ysterhout (Olea capensis), Kershout (Pterocelastrus tricuspidatus) en gewone Geelhout (Podocarpus latifolius), gekies vir die gebruik in ‘n dendro-ekologiese studie. Twee areas was gekies van ‘n wes-tot-oos droogte gradient, met die droeër blok in die George omgewing en die meer vogtige een naby aan Knysna. Die jaarring metings van elke boom was gebruik om beide die basale oppervlakte en die basale oppervlak groei per jaar aan te teken. ‘n Gestandardiseerde reenval en evapotranspirasie indeks (SPEI) was gebruik om vas te stel jare waarin matige tot sterk droogtes gebeur het. Hierdie gekose jare het aanduiding gegee dat daar wel ‘n verskil waargeneem was in die groei patrone van elke spesie gedurende die droogtes. ‘n Gebeurtenis analise is gebruik om ‘n kwantitatiewe verskil te kon sien in die weerstand (Rt), herstel (Rc), weerstandbiedendheid (Rs) en relatiewe weerstandbiedendheid (RRs). Die was waargeneem dat Kerhout die hoogste weerstand (0.92) toon, terwyl die Geelhout ‘n hoër herstel waarde (1.3) gehad het. Ysterhout het apart van die ander twee spesies gestaan in dìe dat dit eers een jaar na die droogte ‘n reaksie getoon het teenoor die droogte. Dit was dus gevind dat daar spesifieke verskil is tussen al drie van die spesies teen opsigte van stres reaksies was. Hierdie verskil kan dan wel ook moontlik aandui dat hierdie spesies en woud-tipe op so ‘n anier aangepas is dat dit die stress gedurende ‘n kort droogte versprei oor ‘n langer tydperk.