This study was conducted in the Nkangala district, in the province of Mpumalanga in South Africa. This province remains the largest forestry production region in South Africa. The majority of people living in Mpumalanga are farmers and they have contributed immensely to promote food security. The objective of the study was to determine the level of climate change awareness among small scale maize producers in Mpumalanga province. Random sampling techniques was used to select two hundred and fifty one (251) farmers to be interviewed. A pre-tested questionnaire was administered to maize farmers, focusing on matters relating to climate change awareness in maize production. Data was captured and analysed using software package for social science (SPSS version 20 of 2012). Descriptive statistics were applied to analyse and describe the data. Logistic regression analysis followed to demonstrate the significance of the independent variables on climate change awareness. The results of the analysis indicated that the information received and the size of the farm had an impact on climate change awareness in the area of study. It was therefore recommended that the majority of farmers in Mpumalanga needed to be made aware of climate change in order to assist them to build the adaptive capacity, increase resilience and reduce vulnerability. Information on climate change awareness should be disseminated well to ensure that it will attract the attention of the farmers / Agriculture and  Animal Health / M.Sc. (Agriculture)

Text in English / Climate change has become part of daily conversations for scholars and activists. Everyone feels entitled to an opinion on either the causes or the prescriptions of mitigation measures. Very few question the ontological existence of climate change or wonder whether their perceptions are pre-empted by over-arching metanarratives or discourses articulated elsewhere. The impact of media and other sources of information on people’s perceptions of climate change are often taken for granted. By using discourse theory, this study aims to uncover taken-for-granted metanarratives within environmentally oriented university Honours student’s perceptions of climate change. These students are majoring in the key areas of Environmental Management studies. It aims at assessing whether their perceptions are, consciously or inadvertently, mis (aligned) to any climate change discourses. In discourse theory, Laclau and Mouffe (1985) argued that within a particular knowledge domain, there are several meaning-conferring articulations (discourses) in a struggle of fixing meaning for particular social events and activities. As such, each discourse aims at negating alternative meanings from alternative discourses and naturalising its own interpretations. Within a particular discourse, actors (individuals or groups) are interpellated i.e. defined within specific confines of action and articulations. This study uses this discourse theory to test these hypotheses. As such, the study came up with three conclusions. First, there is a metanarrative of climate change realism, in which the ontological reality of climate change is taken as a given, with no attempt at individual reflection on its ontology. Secondly, the respondents held a mediated concept of climate change, in which their views largely mirror the conceptualisations of the media and other information sources. Lastly, there is an overarching climate-change aversion metanarrative, in which climate change is regarded as negative, without any distinction between its causes and effects. / Development Studies / M.A. (Development Studies)

Climate change and variability have great impact on the hydrological cycle and consequently on the availability of water resources. Variations in temperature and precipitation trends that are occurring are a consequent of the increase in the concentrations of greenhouse gases, which are subsequently affecting the hydrological cycle. This in turn affects water quantity and quality, which is essential for agriculture, domestic and industrial uses. This study, done in Elliot Town and the surrounding areas of Sakhisizwe Municipality in the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa, evaluates how climate change and variability is affecting water availability and its quality in the town. The impact climate change and variability on agricultural production is also assessed. Remote Sensing, Geographic Information Systems (GIS), databases and some statistical packages have been used to collect, analyse and create spatial maps used to derive concrete conclusions. The methods used aided in spatially analysing the changes in temperature and rainfall along the years and make a comparative analysis. The study has shown that the spatial changes in the amount, intensity and frequency of rainfall affects the magnitude and frequency of stream flows; consequently, increasing the intensity of floods and droughts that have been recurring in the last few decades. The municipality is more affected by climate variability than change, and the resultant extreme climate events are affecting the water resources resulting in domestic water cuts, poor water quality and low agriculture productivity. This study recommends the importance of an awareness campaigns on climate change and variability and their effect directed towards the community, especially on novel water harvesting technologies. The study also highlights the importance of a robust early warning system to prepare the community in case of a climate shock, which is an area that needs further research. / Environmental Sciences

This study was conducted in the Nkangala district, in the province of Mpumalanga in South Africa. This province remains the largest forestry production region in South Africa. The majority of people living in Mpumalanga are farmers and they have contributed immensely to promote food security. The objective of the study was to determine the level of climate change awareness among small scale maize producers in Mpumalanga province. Random sampling techniques was used to select two hundred and fifty one (251) farmers to be interviewed. A pre-tested questionnaire was administered to maize farmers, focusing on matters relating to climate change awareness in maize production. Data was captured and analysed using software package for social science (SPSS version 20 of 2012). Descriptive statistics were applied to analyse and describe the data. Logistic regression analysis followed to demonstrate the significance of the independent variables on climate change awareness. The results of the analysis indicated that the information received and the size of the farm had an impact on climate change awareness in the area of study. It was therefore recommended that the majority of farmers in Mpumalanga needed to be made aware of climate change in order to assist them to build the adaptive capacity, increase resilience and reduce vulnerability. Information on climate change awareness should be disseminated well to ensure that it will attract the attention of the farmers / Agriculture and  Animal Health / M. Sc. (Agriculture)

It has become accepted that long-term global mean temperatures have increased over the twentieth century. However, whether or not climate change can be detected at a local or regional scale is still questionable. The numerous new record highs and lows of temperatures recorded over South Africa for 2003, 2004 and 2005 provide reason to examine whether changes can already be detected in southern Africa's temperature record and modelled hydrological responses. As a preface to a temperature detection study, a literature reVIew on temperature detection studies, methods used and data problems encountered, was undertaken. Simple statistics, linear regression and the Mann-Kendall non-parametric test were the methods reviewed for detecting change. Southern Africa's temperature record was thereafter examined for changes, and the Mann-Kendall non-parametric test was applied to time series of annual means of minimum and maximum temperature, summer means of maximum temperature and winter means of minimum temperature. Furthermore, changes in the upper and lower ends of the temperature distribution were examined. The Mann-Kendall test was applied to numbers of days and numbers of 3 consecutive days abovelbelow thresholds of 10th and 90th percentiles of minimum and maximum temperatures, as well as abovelbelow threshold values of minimum (i.e. 0°) and maximum (i.e. 40°C) temperatures. A second analysis, using the split sample technique for the periods 1950 - 1970 vs 1980 - 2000, was performed for annual means of daily maximum and minimum temperatures, summer means of daily maximum temperatures, winter means of daily minimum temperatures and coefficients of variability of daily maximum and minimum temperatures. Two clear clusters of warming emerged from almost every analysis, viz. a cluster of stations in the Western Cape and a cluster of stations around the midlands ofKwaZulu-Natal, along with a band of stations along the KwaZulu-Natal coast. Another fmding was a less severe frost season over the Free State and Northern Cape. While certain changes are, therefore, evident in temperature parameters, the changes are not uniform across southern Africa. Precipitation and evaporation are the primary drivers of the hydrological cycle, with temperature an important factor in the evaporation process. Thus, with changes in various temperature parameters having been identified over many parts of southern Africa, the question arose whether any changes were evident as yet in hydrological responses. The ACRU model was used to generate daily streamflow values and associated hydrological responses from a baseline land cover, thus eliminating all possible human influences on the catchment and channel. A split-sample analysis of the simulated hydrological responses for the 1950 - 1969 vs 1980 - 1999 periods was undertaken. Trends over time in simulated streamflows were examined for medians, dry and wet years, as well as the range between wet and dry years. The seasonality and concentration of streamflows between the periods 1950 - 1969 and 1980 - 1999 were examined to determine if changes could be identified. Some trends found were marked over large parts of Primary Catchments, and certainly require consideration in future water resources planning. With strong changes over time in simulated hydrological responses already evident in certain Primary Catchments of South Africa using daily rainfall input data from 1950 1999, it, therefore, became necessary to examine the rainfall regimes of the Quaternary Catchments' "driver" rainfall station data in order to determine if these hydrological response changes were supported by changes in rainfall patterns over time. A splitsample analysis was, therefore, performed on the rainfall input of each Quaternary Catchment. Not only were medians considered, but the higher and lower ends of the rainfall distributions were also analysed, as were the number of rainfall events above pre-defined daily thresholds. The changes evident over time in rainfall patterns over southern Africa were found to vary from relatively unsubstantial increases or decreases to significant increase and decreases. However, the changes in rainfall corresponded with the changes noted in simulated streamflow. From the analyses conducted in this study, it has become clear that South Africa's temperature and rainfall, as well as hydrological responses, have changed over the recent past, particularly in certain identifiable hotspots, viz. the Western Cape and KwaZulu-Natal where significant increases in temperature variables and changes in rainfall patterns were detected. These detected changes in climate need to be considered in future water resources planning. / Thesis (M.Sc.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, 2005.

Climate detection studies point to changes in global surface temperature and rainfall patterns over the past 100 years, resulting from anthropogenic influences. Studies on the analysis of rainfall patterns [1950 – 1999] in southern Africa’s summer rainfall areas show an increase in the duration of late summer dry spells, and this change is in line with expected effects of global warming. Observations of surface temperature increases are consistent with climate projections from General Circulation Models (GCMs), as well as with overall changes in climate over the past century. As such, the alterations in climate conditions have a potential to significantly impact agro-ecosystems. The changes in these climatic patterns are projected to result in a cascade of changes in crop responses, and their associated crop yield-limiting factors through altering water available for agriculture, as well as yield-reduction factors by increasing pest/disease/weed prevalence, both of which may lead to agricultural production being affected severely. The objective of this study is to explore effects of scenarios of climate change on agrohydrological responses in the Limpopo Catchment, with an emphasis on the development and application of statistical modelling and analysis techniques. The algorithms of temperature based life cycle stages of the Chilo partellus Spotted Stem Borer, those for agricultural water use and production indicators, and for net above-ground primary production (an option in the ACRU model) as a surrogate for the estimation of agricultural production. At the time that these analyses were conducted, the downscaled daily time step climate projections of the ECHAM5/MPI-OM GCM, considered to indicate projections that are midway between the extremes from other GCMs for southern Africa, were the only scenarios available at a high spatial resolution which had been configured for South Africa. Further, the statistical analysis techniques conducted in the dissertation include quantitative uncertainty analyses on the temperature and precipitation projections from multiple GCMs (the output of which subsequently became available), as well as validation analyses of various algorithms by comparing results obtained from the GCM’s present climate scenarios with those from historically obtained climates from the same time period. The uncertainty analyses suggest that there is an acceptable consistency in the GCMs’ climate projections in the Limpopo Catchment, with an overall high confidence in the changes in mean annual temperature and precipitation projections when using the outputs of the multiple GCMs analysed. However, the means of monthly projections indicated varied confidence levels in the GCMs’ output, more so for precipitation than for temperature projections. Findings from the Validation analyses of the ECHAM5/MPI-OM GCM’s present climate scenario estimations of agricultural production and the agricultural yield-reduction (Chilo partellus) factor against those from observed baseline climate conditions for the same time period indicated a positive linear relationship and a high spatial correlation. This suggests that the ECHAM5/MPI-OM GCM’s present climate scenario is relatively robust when compared with output from observed climate conditions. ECHAM5/MPI-OM GCM projections show that agricultural production in future might increase by over half in the southern and eastern parts of the Limpopo Catchment compared to that under present climate conditions. Findings from the projections of the yield-limiting factor representing water available for agriculture over the Catchment suggest increases in the agricultural water productivity indicator under future climate conditions, with pronounced increases likely in the eastern and southern periphery. On the other hand, the agricultural water use indicator maintained high crop water use over most of the Catchment under all climate scenarios, both present and future. These positive effects might be due to this particular GCM projecting wetter future climate conditions than other GCMs do. Similar increases were projected for the yield-reduction factor, viz. the development of Chilo partellus over the growing season. These results suggest an increase in the C. partellus development, and thus prevalence, over the growing season in the Catchment, and this correlates spatially with the projected rise in agricultural production. The projected positive effects on agricultural production are thus likely to be reduced by the prevalence in agricultural yield-reduction factors and restricted by agricultural yield-limiting factors. The techniques used in this study, particularly the temperature based development models for the agricultural yield-reduction factor and the agricultural water use/water productivity indicators, could be used in future climate impact assessments with availability of outputs from more and updated GCMs, and in adaptation studies. This information can be instrumental in local and national policy guidance and planning. Keywords: Climate projections (scenarios), agricultural production, agricultural yield-reduction (Chilo partellus) and -limiting factors, uncertainty analysis, validation analysis. / Thesis (M.Sc.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, 2011.

Thesis (MSc)--Stellenbosch University, 2012. / Severe floods in the Western Cape have caused significant damage to hydraulic structures, roads and other infrastructure over the past decade. The current design criteria for these structures and flood return level calculations are based on the concept of stationarity, which assumes that natural systems vary within an envelope of variability that does not change with time. In the context of regional climate change and projected changes in rainfall intensity, the basis for these calculations may become unrealistic with the passage of time. Hydraulic structures and other infrastructure may become more vulnerable to damaging floods because of changing hydroclimatic conditions. This project assesses the changes in extreme rainfall values over time across the Western Cape, South Africa. Using a Generalised Pareto Distribution, this study examines the changes in return levels across the Western Cape region for the periods 1900-1954 and 1955-2010. Of the 137 rainfall stations used in this research, 85 (62%) showed an increase in 50-year return level, 30 (22%) a decrease in 50-year return level and 22 (16%) stations displayed little change in rainfall intensity over time. While there were no clear spatial patterns to the results, they clearly indicate an increase in frequency of intense rainfalls in the latter half of the 20th and early 21st century. The changes in return level are also accompanied by a change in the frequency of high intensity 2-3 day long storms. 115 (84%) of the 137 rainfall stations showed an increase in the frequency of long duration, high intensity storms over the data record. This change generates a shifting risk profile of extreme rainfalls, which, in turn, creates challenges for the design of hydraulic structures and any infrastructure exposed to the resulting damaging floods. It can therefore be argued that it is inappropriate to design structures or manage water resources assuming stationarity of climate and that these principles should be assessed in order to reduce the risk of flood damage owing to increasing storm intensity. KEY WORDS Flood Risk, Stationarity, Disaster Risk, Hazard, Extreme Rainfall, Generalized Pareto Distribution, Climate

This study focused on the impact of climate change and adaptation on small-scale cattle and sheep farming in the Eastern Cape province of South Africa. Using information from 500 livestock farmers between 2005 and 2009 farming season, three methods of analysis were used to determine impacts of climate change and adaptation. They were Principal Component Analysis (PCA), Binary Logistic Regression Model (BLRM) and Heckman Probit Model (HPM). Findings revealed that cattle production decreased during the study period 2005 to 2009. Preliminary descriptive statistics results indicated that farmers had different perceptions on climate change and adaptation measures between the periods 2005 and 2009. Further analysis using PCA showed that the different perceptions could be grouped into: (i) drought and windy weather patterns; (ii) information and adaptation; (iii) climate change extension services; (iv) intensive cattle and sheep production; and (v) temperatures. The results of the BLRM indicated that the most significant factors that affected climate change and adaptation were: (i) non-farm income per annum; (ii) type of weather perceived from 2005 to 2009; (iii) livestock production and ownership; (iv) distance to weather stations; (v) distance to input markets; (vi) adaptation strategies and (vii) annual average temperature. From the HPM the results indicated that marital status, level of education, formal extension, temperatures and the way in which land was acquired, significantly affected awareness on climate change. Variables that significantly affected adaptation selections were gender, formal extension, information received on climate change, temperatures and the way in which land was acquired.It was concluded that in the area of study, change in climate was already perceived by small-scale cattle and sheep farmers. Households that perceived differences in seasonal temperatures during the survey period were less likely to adapt to climate change. Having access to extension services increased the likelihood of adaptation to climate change. Information on climate change to improve livestock production appeared to play a significant role in the selection of adaptation measures. The recommendation was that government should consider cattle and sheep farmers’ perceptions on climate change when deciding on programmes for cattle and sheep production. It further suggested that the most significant factors that affected climate change, adaptation, and awareness and adaptation selections be considered when adaptation programmes are planned. / Agriculture Animal Health and Human Ecology / D.Phil. (Environmental Management)

Climate change and variability have great impact on the hydrological cycle and consequently on the availability of water resources. Variations in temperature and precipitation trends that are occurring are a consequent of the increase in the concentrations of greenhouse gases, which are subsequently affecting the hydrological cycle. This in turn affects water quantity and quality, which is essential for agriculture, domestic and industrial uses. This study, done in Elliot Town and the surrounding areas of Sakhisizwe Municipality in the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa, evaluates how climate change and variability is affecting water availability and its quality in the town. The impact climate change and variability on agricultural production is also assessed. Remote Sensing, Geographic Information Systems (GIS), databases and some statistical packages have been used to collect, analyse and create spatial maps used to derive concrete conclusions. The methods used aided in spatially analysing the changes in temperature and rainfall along the years and make a comparative analysis. The study has shown that the spatial changes in the amount, intensity and frequency of rainfall affects the magnitude and frequency of stream flows; consequently, increasing the intensity of floods and droughts that have been recurring in the last few decades. The municipality is more affected by climate variability than change, and the resultant extreme climate events are affecting the water resources resulting in domestic water cuts, poor water quality and low agriculture productivity. This study recommends the importance of an awareness campaigns on climate change and variability and their effect directed towards the community, especially on novel water harvesting technologies. The study also highlights the importance of a robust early warning system to prepare the community in case of a climate shock, which is an area that needs further research. / Environmental Sciences / M. Sc. (Environmental Science)

The focus of this study is on understanding the multiple and interacting factors that hinder or enable municipal planned climate change adaptation, here called barriers and enablers respectively, and their implications for community based adaptation. To do this I developed a conceptual framework of barriers to and enablers of planned climate change adaptation, which informed a systematic literature review of barriers to planned community based adaptation in developing countries. In this framework barriers were grouped into resource, social and physical barriers. I then conducted empirical case study analysis using qualitative research methods in four South African municipalities to understand what barriers and enablers manifested in these contexts. In light of the reflexive nature of my methodology, my framework was adjusted based on my empirical findings, where contextual barriers were found to better represent the empirical results and subsumed physical barriers. I found my framework useful for analysis, but in the empirical cases, barriers and enablers overlaid and interacted so significantly that in reality it was often difficult to separate them. A key finding was that enablers tended to be more about the way things are done, as opposed to direct opposites of barriers. Comparison of barriers and enablers across the case studies revealed a number of key themes. Municipalities struggle to implement climate change adaptation and community based adaptation within contexts of significant social, economic and ecological challenges. These contextual barriers, when combined with certain cognitive barriers, lead to reactive responses. Existing municipal systems and structures make it difficult to enable climate change adaptation, which is inherently cross‐sectoral and messy, and especially community based adaptation that is bottom‐up and participatory. Lack of locally applicable knowledge, funding and human resources were found to be significant resource barriers, and were often underlain by social barriers relating to perceptions, norms, discourses and governance challenges. Enablers of engaged officials, operating within enabling organisational environments and drawing on partnerships and networks, were able to overcome or circumvent these barriers. When these enablers coincided with windows of opportunity that increased the prioritisation of climate change within the municipality, projects with ancillary benefits were often implemented. Analysis of the barriers and enablers identified in the literature and case studies, informed discussion on whether municipalities are able to implement community based adaptation as defined in the literature, as well as the development of recommendations for how municipal planned climate change adaptation and community based adaptation can be further understood and enabled in the future. These recommendations for practice and research include: (a) To acknowledge and understand the conceptual framings of municipal climate change work, as these framings inform the climate change agenda that is pursued, and hence what municipal climate change adaptation work is done and how it was done. (b) The need for further research into the social barriers that influence the vital enablers of engaged officials, enabling organisational environments, and partnerships and networks. (c) To learn from pilot community‐level interventions that have been implemented by municipalities, as well as from other disciplines and municipalities. (d) To develop top‐down/bottom‐up approaches to enable municipal planned climate change adaptation and community based adaptation, that benefits from high level support and guidance, as well as local level flexibility and learning‐by‐doing. (e) To develop viable mechanisms for municipalities to better engage with the communities they serve.