Première des maladies infectieuses jugées comme prioritaire en Guyane, la dengue fait l’objet d’une forte mobilisation des pouvoirs publics. L’amélioration des connaissances relatives aux facteurs climatiques et environnementaux qui influencent la dengue est un préalable indispensable pour le développement de modèles de prédiction nécessaires pour anticiper et adapter les mesures de gestion aux différentes échelles du département. Cette thèse poursuit un double objectif : i) analyser aux différentes échelles de la Guyane (département, territoires, communes), l’effet des facteurs climatiques et environnementaux sur la dynamique des épidémies de dengue et ii) développer des modèles de prédiction des épidémies. A cet égard, des outils statistiques, de fouille de données et de modélisation complémentaires on été utilisés pour étudier l’influence des facteurs climatiques et environnementaux sur la dynamique de la dengue. Un modèle de prévision climatique des épidémies à l'échelle du départeent, présentant une bonne valeur prédictive a été développé. Ce modèle prédit une épidémie pour 2016. / Dengue is the most prioritized infectious disease in French Guiana with an intense mobilization of public health authorities. In this context, the improvement of knowledge on the climatic, environmental and demographic determinants of dengue transmission is a necessary condition to the development of epidemic prediction model for the planning of control activities at each level of organization of the territory. This thesis had two objectives: i) assess the effect of climatic and environmental factors on dengue spread; ii) develop prediction models of epidemic to anticipate and plan prevention and control activities. We used complementary statistical, data mining and modeling tools to show that climatic and environmental factors interplay with dengue incidence differently at different territory scales. A predictive model with a good performance was developped considering the whole territory of French Guiana. This model indicates that a dengue epidemic is likely to occur in 2016.

MSCAGR / Department of Soil Science

No description available.

The ocean is the only cumulative sink of atmospheric CO2. It has absorbed approximately 40% of the CO2 from fossil fuel burning and cement production, lowering atmospheric CO2 and limiting climate change. Here we will examine the regional and global mechanisms controlling the evolution of ocean uptake of this additional carbon from human activities (anthropogenic carbon, Cant) using ocean models and observations. Cant is rapidly injected into the deep ocean, sequestering it from the atmosphere for centuries. It is currently uncertain whether any of this sequestered Cant was absorbed from the atmosphere in the subpolar North Atlantic. Here we present evidence that the upper limb of the ocean’s overturning circulation supplies the subpolar North Atlantic with capacity to absorb Cant from the atmosphere. Using a coupled ocean model, we find that surface freshening of the subpolar North Atlantic reduces the volume available for Cant storage. We also investigate whether global ocean Cant uptake is reduced due to changing ocean circulation, this time across multiple emission scenarios, including scenarios with aggressive emission mitigation. Though it is clear that emission mitigation will reduce the magnitude of the ocean carbon sink, the mechanisms governing the decline in uptake have not been studied in detail. We find that the ocean sink becomes less efficient due to kinematic effects wherein Cant escapes from the surface ocean as atmospheric CO2 plateaus and then declines. In emission scenarios ranging from high to low emissions, projected changes in global Cant uptake due to ocean circulation are small. This is in contrast with the subpolar North Atlantic, where future circulation change plays a important role in the declining Cant uptake.

Thesis (M. Sc. Agriculture (Agricultural Economics)) -- University of Limpopo, 2020 / Food security is a broad concept especially as far as rural food security in countries is concerned. In essence, it is a phenomenon with the goal of ensuring that all individuals have at all times, an adequate level of food and which they will be able to utilize to meet their increasing consumption demand. Studies have shown that like other countries, South Africa is food secure at the national level but very food insecure at the household level. It is also shown that food insecurity is not fuelled by a lack of food but a lack of food insecurity tackling strategies. The aim of the study is to examine the determinants of food security among rural households in Magong, North West Province, South Africa where the main prevalent economic activity is farming supported with other formal and informal types of employment. A multi-stage sampling technique was used to select the respondents that were interviewed. The first stage involved selecting districts and the second stage was the selection of municipalities. Farm and non-farming households were selected. Structured questionnaire were administered to 108 households. The third stage involved a selection Magong village using purposive sampling based on high concentration of both farming and non-farming activities were selected, which in our case is Magong. The fourth stage involved the selection of respondents based on simple random sampling proportionate to size. The study employed logit model for as data analysis. Of the variables modelled, only income and land size had a significant influence on food security. As far as age is concerned, it was evident that the youth participation in agriculture lacks. This is because most young people are still after white collar jobs. Some were still in the academic world awaiting their certificates which they hope to use a ticket to their first job. The participation in agriculture increases steadily between ages 31 and 50 which could be because the persons in this age brackets were looking for ways to store their wealth as they approach their retirement age. Some of the respondents have inherited the farms from family members and are therefore “forced” to keep the family business running for the sake of sustainability. With regards to the marital status, there is a high number of single/ never married respondents compared to the other groups. This could be people co-habiting and choosing not to marry as a result of the economic conditions making marriage costs unaffordable. Divorce was at its lowest amongst the respondents.v In terms of the gender of the respondents, there was a high participation of women in agriculture. This may be a result of women-based agricultural programmes implemented in the past in the study area. All the variables had a positive relationship with food security. Age had a positive effect of food security, with a positive parameter (β=0.013) which indicated that contrary to what other researchers found, an increase in age when all other factors are held constant, resulted in an increase in food security. The marital status of the household head also positively affected food security. This indicated that compared to their unmarried counterparts, married household heads were food secure (β=0.049). The findings also indicated that married couples and people living with partner had a higher chance of being food secure than those who were single, divorced or widowed. According to the results, male headship of households increases food security by 0.398. It was found that the larger the household size, the more food secure it is. This may be because as the number of members in the household increase, they find more ways of making money and combating food insecurity. A unit increase in household size increases food security by .093 while an increase in land size, increases food security by 0.394. This is expected because as the land size increases, there are chances that the productivity will also increase. From the results of the survey household income had a positive effect on food security. Income is very important as it determines the household’s affordability and its ability to meet its needs

Adverse weather is considered as one of the important factors contributing to injuries and severe crashes. During rainy conditions, it can reduce travel visibility, increase stopping distance, and create the opportunity hydroplaning. This study quantified the relative crash risk on Oregon 217 southbound direction under rainy conditions by using a match-paired approach, applied one-year traffic data, crash data and NEXRAD Level II radar weather data. There are 26 crashes occurred in match-paired weather conditions for Oregon 217 in year 2007. The results of this study indicate that a higher crash risk and a higher property-damage-only crash risk occurred during rainy days. The crash risk level varies by the location of the highway, at milepost 2.55 station SW Allen Blvd has the highest driving risks under rainy conditions.

Eight glaciers, covering an area of 1.63 km2, reside on the northern and northeastern slopes of the Goat Rocks tallest peaks in the Cascades of central Washington. At least three glacial stands occurred downstream from these glaciers. Closest to modern glacier termini are Little Ice Age (LIA) moraines that were deposited between 1870 and 1899 AD, according to the lichenometric analysis. They are characterized by sharp, minimally eroded crests, little to no soil cover, and minimal vegetation cover. Glacier reconstructions indicate that LIA glaciers covered 8.29 km2, 76% more area than modern ice coverage. The average LIA equilibrium line altitude (ELA) of 1995 ± 70 m is ~150 m below the average modern ELA of 2149 ± 76 m. To satisfy climate conditions at the LIA ELA, the winter snow accumulation must have been 8 to 43 cm greater and mean summer temperatures 0.2 to 1.3 ºC cooler than they are now. Late Pleistocene to early Holocene (LPEH) aged moraines are located between 100 and 400 m below the LIA deposits. They have degraded moraine crests, few surface boulders, and considerable vegetation and soil cover. Volcanic ashes indicate LPEH moraines were deposited before 1480 AD while morphometric data suggest deposition during the late Pleistocene or early Holocene. The average LPEH ELA of 1904 ± 110 m is ~ 240 m and ~90 m below the modern and LIA ELAs, respectively. The climate change necessary to maintain a glacier with an ELA at that elevation for LPEH conditions requires the winter accumulation to increase by 47 to 48 cm weq and the mean summer temperature to cool by 1.4 to 1.5 ºC. Last glacial maximum (LGM) moraines are located more than 30 km downstream from modern glacial termini. They are characterized by hummocky topography, rounded moraine crests, complete vegetation cover, and well developed soil cover. Moraine morphometry, soil characteristics, and distance from modern glacial termini indicate that deposition occurred at least 15 ka BP during an expansive cooling event, the last being the LGM. The LGM ELA of 1230 m is ~920 m below the modern ELA. The climate change necessary to maintain a glacier with an ELA at that elevation for LGM conditions requires the mean summer temperature to cool by 5.6 ºC with no change in precipitation.

A glacier responds to changes in climate by subsequent retreat and advance as a result of changes in snow inputs and outputs. Understanding these changes is important because shrinking glaciers limit and diminish local water resources. They contribute to alpine runoff in the late-summer months by delaying the maximum runoff until late in the melt season. A comprehensive glacier and perennial snowfield inventory has not been completed for the Three Sisters in Central Oregon. Using aerial photography, Digital Elevation Models (DEMs), previous studies, and historical ground based photographs these glacier and perennial snowfields were defined and their surface area change was quantified along with surface area and volume change for the 15 named glaciers for multiple years. The glaciers and perennial snowfields totaled 9.03 ± 1.65 km2 in 1949 and decreased to 7.1 ± 1.16 km2 in 2003 giving a total loss of -1.914 ± 0.974 km2 ( 21%). The 15 named glaciers totaled 12.43 ± 0.417 km2 in ~1900 and decreased to 5.65 ± 0.135 km2 in 2003 giving a total loss of -6.70 ± 0.439 km2 (54%) with more loss occurring in the early part of the century. It's estimated that the 15 named glaciers lost roughly 61% of volume from 1900 to 2010. From 1957 to 2010 their surface's dropped in elevation on average by -8.9m, losing an estimated 71.96 x 106 ± 2.87 x 106 m3 (53%) in total volume, seen across accumulation and ablation zones, with more loss happening from 1957 to 1990. There was no relationship found between topography and area. A small correlation was found between slope and increased volume change. Debris cover on glacier surfaces has increased and showed a correlation between decreasing area loss (no correlation with volume changes).

Glaciers respond to local climate changes making them important indicators of regional climate change. The North Cascades region of Washington is the most glaciated region in the lower-48 states with approximately 25% of all glaciers and 40% of the total ice-covered area. While there are many on-going investigations of specific glaciers, little research has addressed the entire glacier cover of the region. A reference inventory of glaciers was derived from a comparison of two different inventories dating to about 1958. The different inventories agree within 93% of total number of glaciers and 94% of total ice-covered area. To quantify glacier change over the past century aerial photographs, topographic maps, and geologic maps were used. In ~1900 total area was about 533.89 ± 22.77 km2 and by 2009 the area was reduced by -56% ± 3% to 236.20 ± 12.60 km2. Most of that change occurred in the first half of the 20th century, between 1900 and 1958, -245.59 ± 25.97 km2 (-46% ± 5%) was lost, followed by a period of stability/growth in mid-century (-1% ± 3% from 1958-1990) then decline since the 1990s (-9% ± 3% from 1990-2009). The century-scale loss is associated with increasing regional temperatures warming in winter and summer; precipitation shows no trend. On a decadal time scale winter precipitation and winter and summer temperatures are important factors correlated with area loss. Topographically, smaller glaciers at lower elevations with steeper slopes and higher mean insolation exhibited greater loss than higher, gentler more shaded glaciers.

No description available.